Assessing Vulnerability of Wildlife Assessing Vulnerability of Wildlife Species At Risk From Climate Species At Risk From Climate

ChangeChangeDeborah FinchDeborah Finch

US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research StationUS Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station

What do we know about wildlife?What do we know about wildlife?

How does climate change threaten How does climate change threaten wildlife?wildlife?

How will different species respond to How will different species respond to climate change?climate change?

Are species already responding?Are species already responding? How will habitats be impacted?How will habitats be impacted? Where will impacts be greatest?Where will impacts be greatest?

IUCNIUCN

CC susceptible

Threatened & CC susceptible

Threatened

Total Birds =

38% (~ 3 x’s more)

Foden et al. 2008. IUCN.

Direct vs. Indirect EffectsDirect vs. Indirect Effects

Direct effectsDirect effects of temperature, ppt. & carbon dioxide on birds of temperature, ppt. & carbon dioxide on birds (dehydration, egg-warming …)(dehydration, egg-warming …)

Indirect Effects:Indirect Effects: Habitat loss and shifts in habitat distributionsHabitat loss and shifts in habitat distributions Responses by invasive speciesResponses by invasive species Changes in fire frequency Changes in fire frequency DiseasesDiseases Changes in phenology Changes in phenology Disruption of food websDisruption of food webs Decoupling of cues and responsesDecoupling of cues and responses

Birds are migrating earlier in the spring.

A study of 63 years of data for 96 species of bird migrants in Canada showed that 27 species arrive earlier, in conjunction with warming spring temperatures.

Birds also seem to be delaying falldeparture: in a study of 13 N. Amer. songbirds, 6 species were found to delay their departure datesin relation to warming.

Some birds in Europe are evenfailing to migrate at all.

Migration times are shifting

Egg laying is earlier.

One large-scale study showed that birds are laying eggs at an average rate of 6.6 days earlier per decade.

The Common Murre in North America has advanced its breeding date 24 days per decade.

North American Tree Swallows are nesting up to 9 days earlier than 30 years ago, corresponding to an increase in average spring temperatures.

Reproductive TimingReproductive Timing

Dunn and Winkler 1999. Proc. Royal Soc. Lond. 266

Temperature cues and climate change can lead to earlier lay dates.

Benefit or potential mismatch?

Mixed SignalsMixed Signals

Pied flycatcherPied flycatcher in Holland in Holland• Long distance migrantLong distance migrant• Migration triggered by day-night Migration triggered by day-night

cyclescycles• Food source tied to temperatureFood source tied to temperature• >90% reduction in populations >90% reduction in populations

(early breeders doing ok)(early breeders doing ok)

From: University of Montanta 2009. Climate change hurting hares: with snowshoe hares can’t hide on brown earth. SciencDaily. Both et al., 2006 Nature

Nicole Bouglouan

Bird populations are expected to shift poleward, or to higher elevations, to stay coupled to shifting environments as the climate changes.

Ontario Breeding Bird Atlas data show “southern” bird species such as Tufted Titmouse and Blue-Gray Gnatcatcher have increased and have expanded their range north compared to 20 years ago.

A study of 35 North American warbler species found that ranges of 7 species shifted significantly north in the past 24 years, by an average of 65 miles. None of the birds shifted to the south.

Bird Distributions are Changing

0.00

0.20

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0.60

0.80

1.00

200 700 1200 1700 2200

Elevation (m)

Cu

mu

lati

ve a

bu

nd

ance

1979-81

2005-07

Shifts in elevational distributions: Shifts in elevational distributions: Mountain QuailMountain Quail

K-S test:

P < 0.05

Maximum temps

r2 = 0.4779

Minimum temps

r2 = 0.0674

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Tem

per

atu

re (

°C)

Hargrove and Rotenberry 2009, UC Riverside

Ecological communities are disrupted

Global warming can change entire ecological communities. Food and nesting materials may no longer be there. Wildlife may face new prey, parasites, competitors, and predators to which they are not adapted.

Tufted Puffins at Canadiansites have breeding success near zero when water is at its warmest, which could meanthat Canada’s largest breedingcolony for this species, Scott Islands, may become unsuitablefor Tufted Puffins as water continues to warm.

Example of disruption

Biotic Interactions: DiseaseBiotic Interactions: Disease

Native bird populations decimated by avian MalariaNative bird populations decimated by avian MalariaMalaria limited by mosquito-vectorMalaria limited by mosquito-vectorPredicted range expansions due to global warming Predicted range expansions due to global warming shifts birds into the unprotected malaria zoneshifts birds into the unprotected malaria zone

From: Benning et al., 2002 PNAS 99: 14246-14249.

Weather phenomenaWeather phenomena

Intensity and frequency of El Nino storms expected Intensity and frequency of El Nino storms expected to increase.to increase.

Drastic population crashes of the Black-throated Blue Drastic population crashes of the Black-throated Blue warbler have been linked to reduced precipitation in its warbler have been linked to reduced precipitation in its over wintering groundsover wintering grounds

Increased El Nino events associated with 50% decline in Increased El Nino events associated with 50% decline in Galapagos penguin populationsGalapagos penguin populations

Drought & Reproductive FailureDrought & Reproductive Failure

Bolger, Patten, and Bostock. 2005. Population Ecology 142:398-406

R. Wolf

How Are People Affected?How Are People Affected?

Changes in recreational opportunities Changes in recreational opportunities such as photographing and viewing such as photographing and viewing animalsanimals

Changes in ecosystem services such Changes in ecosystem services such as water supply, wood products, as water supply, wood products, clean air clean air

Changes in services available on Changes in services available on public lands (skiing, rafting, camping)public lands (skiing, rafting, camping)

Extinction risks are on the rise

Birds most at risk of extinction from climate change are those with restricted ranges, poor ability to move their range, small populations, or those already facing conservation challenges.

Migratory birds are particularly vulnerable to climate change effects, because they depend on multiple habitats and sites.

Arctic birds are particularly vulnerable – warming is occurring rapidly here, and 15% of the world’s birds breed in global Arctic regions. Vast areas of habitat, including tundra and sea ice, will be lost. Sea ice retreat could have severe consequences for Ivory Gulls, which forage on along sea ice. Canadian Ivory Gulls, which forage along sea ice, have already declined in number by 90% over the past two decades.

Source: Koopman et al.2009NCCSP

• Determine vulnerable wildlife species

• Make assisted adaptation plans

• Partnerships to achieve successful outcomes

• Increase resilience of habitats via restoratlon

• Monitor and analyze existing monitoring data

• Conservation education

Next Steps

• Model demographic responses of species to changes in climate

• Plan for future changes in critical habitats

Climate Change, Wildlife and Wildlands: A Toolkit for Formal and Informal

Educators

http://www.globalchange.gov/climate-toolkit

The kit is designed for classroom teachers and informal educators and is aimed at the middle school level. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in partnership with six other federal agencies, developed the kit to aid educators in teaching how climate change is affecting our nation’s wildlife and public lands, and how everyone can become “climate stewards.”

ToolkitToolkit

• 12 minute video on climate change, wildlife

• Overview of the science of climate change

• Case studies on impacts to habitats and wildlife • Glossary of climate change terms

• Activities keyed to natl. science standards

• Hands-on activities and educator resources

ThanksThanks

USDA Forest ServiceUSDA Forest Service University of ArizonaUniversity of Arizona Arizona State PolytechnicArizona State Polytechnic The Nature ConservancyThe Nature Conservancy Department of Defense, LegacyDepartment of Defense, Legacy US Fish and Wildlife ServiceUS Fish and Wildlife Service