Assessing the Strategic Assessing the Strategic Importance of the Black Importance of the Black

Sea RegionSea Region

James BosbotinisJames Bosbotinis

Fellow of the AIPRGFellow of the AIPRG

IntroductionIntroduction

This presentation will examine the This presentation will examine the principal geopolitical, strategic and geo-principal geopolitical, strategic and geo-economic factors influencing the Black Sea economic factors influencing the Black Sea regional system.regional system.

This will elucidate the strategic importance This will elucidate the strategic importance of the region.of the region.

The requirement for Grand Strategic The requirement for Grand Strategic engagement by the Euro-Atlantic engagement by the Euro-Atlantic Community and the Region will also be Community and the Region will also be discussed. discussed.

The Regional SystemThe Regional System

The Black Sea region is of increasing The Black Sea region is of increasing geopolitical, military-strategic and geo-geopolitical, military-strategic and geo-economic importance. economic importance.

The region constitutes the south-eastern The region constitutes the south-eastern frontier of NATO and the EU and is the frontier of NATO and the EU and is the juncture at which Europe, Russia, Asia juncture at which Europe, Russia, Asia and the Middle East meet. and the Middle East meet.

It is also at the crux of two spheres of It is also at the crux of two spheres of influence; those of the West and Russia. influence; those of the West and Russia.

The Regional SystemThe Regional System

The security and stability of the region is The security and stability of the region is crucial to that of Europe and the Euro-crucial to that of Europe and the Euro-Atlantic Community.Atlantic Community.

Of particular significance are the Of particular significance are the continuing conflicts afflicting Moldova (vis-continuing conflicts afflicting Moldova (vis-á-vis Transnistria), Georgia (vis-á-vis á-vis Transnistria), Georgia (vis-á-vis Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and Armenia Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and Armenia and Azerbaijan (vis-á-vis Nagorno-and Azerbaijan (vis-á-vis Nagorno-Karabakh); the political trajectories of Karabakh); the political trajectories of Ukraine and Georgia; the resurgence of Ukraine and Georgia; the resurgence of Russia; and soft-security threats including Russia; and soft-security threats including human, narcotics and arms trafficking, human, narcotics and arms trafficking, transnational terrorism and organised transnational terrorism and organised criminal activity. criminal activity.

The Regional SystemThe Regional System

The region is also of increasing The region is also of increasing geo-economic importance geo-economic importance especially with regard to especially with regard to developing European energy developing European energy security via the import of security via the import of hydrocarbon resources from the hydrocarbon resources from the Caspian Basin and Central Asia Caspian Basin and Central Asia and its potential as a hub within a and its potential as a hub within a Pan-European Transport Area. Pan-European Transport Area.

The Black Sea Region and The Black Sea Region and the Euro-Atlantic the Euro-Atlantic CommunityCommunity

The Black Sea region is a zone of common The Black Sea region is a zone of common interest for the two principal institutions of interest for the two principal institutions of the Euro-Atlantic Community; NATO and the the Euro-Atlantic Community; NATO and the EU.EU.

Both organisations are engaged in dialogue Both organisations are engaged in dialogue with interested parties and aspirant with interested parties and aspirant members in the region; such engagement is members in the region; such engagement is essential for securing the strategic interests essential for securing the strategic interests of those involved and ensuring the security, of those involved and ensuring the security, stability and prosperity of the region. stability and prosperity of the region.

The Black Sea Region and The Black Sea Region and the Euro-Atlantic the Euro-Atlantic CommunityCommunity

The nexus of frozen conflicts, instability in the The nexus of frozen conflicts, instability in the Russian North Caucasus, deficits in governance Russian North Caucasus, deficits in governance and economic development, and Russia’s and economic development, and Russia’s resurgence pose serious challenges to both NATO resurgence pose serious challenges to both NATO and the EU.and the EU.

Engagement with the region to promote and Engagement with the region to promote and develop security, stability and prosperity is develop security, stability and prosperity is essential for both regional and wider international essential for both regional and wider international security. The development of a stable regional security. The development of a stable regional system will thus allow the region’s potential as an system will thus allow the region’s potential as an economic hub to be realised and enable its use as economic hub to be realised and enable its use as a launch-pad for power projection to mitigate a launch-pad for power projection to mitigate threats to Euro-Atlantic security in the Middle East threats to Euro-Atlantic security in the Middle East and Eurasia. and Eurasia.

The Military-Strategic The Military-Strategic Value of the RegionValue of the Region

The Black Sea region is at the forefront of a The Black Sea region is at the forefront of a military realignment in Europe seeing a shift military realignment in Europe seeing a shift from central to south-eastern Europe.from central to south-eastern Europe.

The US Army Europe (USAREUR) has created The US Army Europe (USAREUR) has created the Joint Task Force East and is developing the Joint Task Force East and is developing an active military relationship and presence an active military relationship and presence in Romania and Bulgaria, including the pre-in Romania and Bulgaria, including the pre-positioning of equipment and the forward-positioning of equipment and the forward-deployment of forces when necessary.deployment of forces when necessary.

The Military-Strategic The Military-Strategic Value of the RegionValue of the Region This is reflective of the value of the This is reflective of the value of the

Black Sea region as a launch-pad for Black Sea region as a launch-pad for projecting power into the Caucasus, projecting power into the Caucasus, Eurasia, and the Middle East. Eurasia, and the Middle East. Cooperative Security Locations in the Cooperative Security Locations in the South Caucasus are also being South Caucasus are also being developed.developed.

The region also serves as a potential The region also serves as a potential bulwark against threats to Europe, bulwark against threats to Europe, effectively forming a buffer zone with effectively forming a buffer zone with the Middle East and Eurasia.the Middle East and Eurasia.

The Military-Strategic The Military-Strategic Value of the RegionValue of the Region The region is of military-strategic The region is of military-strategic

significance due to its unstable security significance due to its unstable security environment.environment.

The frozen conflicts in Moldova, Georgia The frozen conflicts in Moldova, Georgia and between Armenia and Azerbaijan; and between Armenia and Azerbaijan; the destabilisation of the North the destabilisation of the North Caucasus; Russo-Ukrainian/Georgian Caucasus; Russo-Ukrainian/Georgian tensions; and the deterioration in Russo-tensions; and the deterioration in Russo-Western relationsWestern relations pose a significant risk pose a significant risk to the regional security system.to the regional security system.

Russia and the Black Russia and the Black Sea RegionSea Region The region is of critical importance to Russia, in The region is of critical importance to Russia, in

particular with regard to Ukraine’s trajectory, particular with regard to Ukraine’s trajectory, secessionism in the North Caucasus and secessionism in the North Caucasus and defending its interests in the South Caucasus.defending its interests in the South Caucasus.

Russia’s vehement opposition to NATO Russia’s vehement opposition to NATO engagement with regional states, its support for engagement with regional states, its support for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and general desire Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and general desire to minimise foreign influence in its “near-to minimise foreign influence in its “near-abroad” warrant substantial concern for the abroad” warrant substantial concern for the Euro-Atlantic Community.Euro-Atlantic Community.

Russia maintains a significant military presence Russia maintains a significant military presence in the region and intends to substantially in the region and intends to substantially modernise those forces over the mid-term.modernise those forces over the mid-term.

The Strategic The Strategic Importance of the Importance of the Black Sea RegionBlack Sea Region The geopolitical, military-strategic and geo-The geopolitical, military-strategic and geo-

economic importance of the wider Black Sea economic importance of the wider Black Sea Region assure its strategic significance.Region assure its strategic significance.

The region is a zone of opportunity for The region is a zone of opportunity for developing as a partner within the Euro-Atlantic developing as a partner within the Euro-Atlantic Community via NATO and the EU. It also Community via NATO and the EU. It also provides an important conduit for cooperation provides an important conduit for cooperation and partnership with Russia due to the shared and partnership with Russia due to the shared interest in ensuring the security, stability and interest in ensuring the security, stability and prosperity of the region. However, should prosperity of the region. However, should relations with Russia deteriorate, the region relations with Russia deteriorate, the region would be a crucial bulwark for European would be a crucial bulwark for European security.security.

A Grand Strategy for A Grand Strategy for the Black Sea Regionthe Black Sea Region Engagement between the Euro-Atlantic Engagement between the Euro-Atlantic

Community and the states of the Black Sea Community and the states of the Black Sea region should not be on the basis of political, region should not be on the basis of political, military or economic issues but rather should military or economic issues but rather should be structured holistically to promote to be structured holistically to promote to security, stability and prosperity via conflict security, stability and prosperity via conflict resolution, confidence-building and resolution, confidence-building and cooperation. cooperation.

Economic development requires security and Economic development requires security and stability as does improving governance; stability as does improving governance; security and governance must also address security and governance must also address economic development. economic development.

A Grand Strategy for A Grand Strategy for the Black Sea Regionthe Black Sea Region In short, the nexus of challenges confronting In short, the nexus of challenges confronting

the region require a nexus of strategies to the region require a nexus of strategies to mitigate them.mitigate them.

This will require strategic engagement This will require strategic engagement covering the political, military-strategic and covering the political, military-strategic and economic spheres including cooperation economic spheres including cooperation between the principal European/Euro-Atlantic between the principal European/Euro-Atlantic institutions (NATO, EU, OSCE) to ensure the institutions (NATO, EU, OSCE) to ensure the integration of the region as a core element of integration of the region as a core element of the Euro-Atlantic Community. the Euro-Atlantic Community.

Engagement with Russia must also be Engagement with Russia must also be structured this way so to build confidence and structured this way so to build confidence and ensure relations in the region are based on ensure relations in the region are based on cooperation rather than confrontation. cooperation rather than confrontation.