Assessing the Full Deck of Smart Transport Solutions

Caley JohnsonNational Renewable Energy Laboratory

Workshop: Deep Transition and Integration of Power and Transport Systems(APEC project EWG 10 2018A)

NREL Office, Washington DC, 14-15 January 2020

Source Studies

• Predecessors include Guam and US Virgin Islands• Cover GHGs, energy, and/or

petroleum• Incorporate transport into

NDC goals

General Assessment Plan

• Data collection and proxy data• Establish business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for transportation projection• Wedge analysis to determine general path to goal• Vehicle-kilometre travelled (VKT) reductions• Fuel economy improvements• Idle reduction• Alternative fuels• Drive-cycle smoothing

• Policies and projects to fulfil wedge analysis

Data Collection and BAU ScenarioBig 3 Data Sets

1. Annual VKT• Can derive by traffic counts

2. Vehicle count by type• Can derive from sales/import data

3. Gasoline and diesel consumption• Tax data

Projecting

VKT tied most closely to per-capita GDP, but also to spatial dispersion, car infrastructure, fuel prices, and alternatives to driving (Ecola et al. 2014)

Wedge AnalysisJamaica- 10% below BAU Tonga- 28% below BAU

Sub-goals1. 20% reduction of VKT from light-duty vehicles (LDVs)2. 30% improvement in LDV fuel economy3. Idle time in heavy-duty vehcles (HDV) reduced 1 hour per

day4. All diesel contains 10% biodiesel5. 10% of new LDVs are electric

Example VKT Reduction Policies and ProjectsTrack and Coordinate Buses

• Increase bus predictability• Integrate with Google maps via Google

Transit Partners• Track on phone, computer, or sign with

www.nextbus.com

Enable and encourage safe walking and biking

• Help peds/bike’s hold their ground• Safe bicycle/pedestrian passing law• Visibility Improvement Projects

“See and Be Seen” backpacks in Tanzania. Source: AMEND

Example VKT Reduction Policies and Projects

Coordinated urban parking management program• Placing a price on parking

empowers drivers to weigh their options• Reduce minimum parking

requirements on businesses• Strategic parking lots at

bottlenecks Strategic Parking Lot

Example Fuel Economy Policies and Projects-Fuel economy-related import tariff or registration fee

Attributes of successful tariffs or fees1. Targets the item you want to improve

(GHGs?, Petroleum Consumption?, Vehicle Weight? Engine Size?

2. Choose categories that are easy to place vehicles in

3. Ensure vehicle categories don’t create perverse incentives• Example: US used to create perverse incentive to

increase size by regulating cars differently than SUVs

4. Equitable• Unfair to set fee to increase with vehicle age

5. Politically feasible• “Feebates” tend to be better accepted than taxes,

tariffs, or fees.

Asia/Pacific Countries with FE-Related Registration Fees and Related Policies

Asi

a/Pa

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Cou

ntry

FE

Regi

stra

tion

Fees

Fee-

bate

Rela

ted

regi

stra

tion

tax

inst

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ents

Fuel

Eco

nom

y Sta

ndar

dIm

port

Re

stri

ctio

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Fuel

Tax

es

Fuel

Eco

nom

y La

belin

g

Australia No No No Yes Yes No Yes

India No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes

China Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Philippines No No Yes No Yes Yes No

South Korea

Yes No Yes Yes Yes No Yes

Source: www.globalfueleconomy.org

Example Idle Time Reduction Policies

• Implement idle restrictions and post signs outside hotels, schools, garages, and delivery points• Start with school buses since children are

particularly susceptible to air pollution• Facilitate third-party reporting

• Advise them to use appropriate idle-reduction technologies• Electrified parking spaces• Automatic engine shutoff devices• Axillary power systems• Batteries• Storage Cooling

Example Drive Cycle Smoothing Projects

The average vehicle is 35% more efficient on highway than city drive

cycle

• Traffic signal synchronization• Bus pull-offs• Left-hand turn lanes• Pedestrian overpasses• Can model improvements in

FASTSim tool• Must account for takeback affect

Example Alternative Fuel Projects: Biodiesel from Waste Grease and Coconut

• Tonga produces enough waste grease to produce ~1M liters of biodiesel per year• If this was all used, it could fulfill 77% of B10 wedge by 2030

• Economics look favorable but dependent on numerous factors• Explained in “Economics of Small-Scale Biodiesel Production”

http://articles.extension.org/pages/30024/economics-of-small-scale-biodiesel-production• Main hurdle is developing a collection system• Anti-dumping laws could be enacted and enforced• Tonga could see substantial cost savings in water drainage and treatment systems• Biodiesel from intercropped coconuts well established in Philippines

Electric Vehicle Strategy

Tune In Tomorrow!

Project Prioritization and Implementation

• Projects are ranked according to:• Quantity of GHGs reduced• Upfront cost• Time Required to implement• Ancillary benefits

• Top three could potentially be quantified into metric of “discounted cost per tonne GHG”

Questions?

Caley JohnsonSenior Transportation Market AnalystCenter for Integrated Mobility SciencesNational Renewable Energy Laboratorycaley.johnson@nrel.gov303-275-3607