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Victoria in context of national landscape health Future population projection >10 people per km 2 in catchments = muddy estuary (Edgar, 2001)
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Assessing estuary pressures and the relationships with catchment conditions
Michaela Dommisse, Multi-regional projects (#203029)
Po rt P hi llip B ay
Lim eb ur ne rs Ba y
Po rt P hi llip B ay
Sk ele ton C re ek
Ko ror oit C ree k
Lav er ton C re ek
We rri be e R iv er
Port Phillip Bay
Western Port Bay
Corner Inlet
Gippsland Lakes
Swan Bay
Shallow Inlet
Lake Tyers
Anderson Inlet
Barwon River
Sydenham InletYarra River
Tamboon InletSnowy River
Jack Smith Lake
Curdies Inlet
Limeburners Bay
Aire River
Hopkins RiverMoyne River
Skeleton Creek
Gellibrand River
Fitzroy River
Werribee River
Thompson Creek
Barham River
Anglesea River
Cumberland River
Patterson River
Painkalac Creek/Aireys Inlet
Wye River
100 0 100 Kilometers
N
EW
S
Estuaries and human activities
Kidneys of the sea
123 bays, inlets and estuariesLifestyle, freshwater, fertile land, fish catch and shipping
941 17
18
23
Victoria in context of national landscape healthFuture population projection
N
Estimated population change 1996-2020in percent by Local Goverment Authority
-21 to -30-11 to -20-1 to -10
0 to 1011 to 2021 to 3031 to 40
41 to 5051 to 6061 to 7071 to 80140 to 150
>10 people per km2 in catchments= muddy estuary (Edgar, 2001)
Values of estuariesRanging from
short
intermittent mouth
microtidal
open coast
sheltered embayment
macrotidal
open mouth
long
Anglesea Cardinia
500 m 500 m
The Project in a nutshell
1
2
34
5
Link whole of ecosystem pressure
to state
Incorporate into management plans
Make sure it
happens
outputs outcomes
Human activities and estuaries
Catchment use
Environmental flowCoastal development
Harvest and use
Mouth opening
Steps for science outputs
• Summarise information on estuary pressures in a GIS or tagged database - Barton PhD (31 estuaries, phyico/chem data)
• Develop conceptual models linking pressures to estuary condition (building on SERM and Ozestuaries)
• Validate methodology (in situ)• Develop Interim guidelines
Cause-effect 1
• Spatial comparison across estuaries with different catchment characteristics, mouth opening/closing regimes etc.– broad-scale correlation
• Barton PhD - EPA data– 31 estuaries ranging from degraded
(e.g. Curdies) through “pristine” (e.g. St George, Tidal Rivers)
Cause-effect 2
• Evaluate response of estuaries to specific management actions– environmental flow releases (e.g.
Coorong and Murray flows)– nutrient management schemes (e.g.
regularly monitoring algal blooms)– estuary mouths artificially opened or
closed (e.g. non-management action in Surry)
Microbial function- conditionT6 x+1 no c 20 May
Stress: 0.14
MinimallyIntermediateHighly
Stress 0.14nMDS
EW
Em Diagram from Jan Barton (EPA, Flinders)
Low
Steps to make it happen
• Consideration in broad strategies – regional catchments strategies
(Advocacy group)
• Incorporation into existing plans and strategies as science becomes available
(agency participation) – regional river health strategies
Time frames?
Start Methods
Aug05
March06
Pressuressummary
Dec 06
Biophysicalclassification
Indicators and conceptual models
March 07
Sept 07
Dec 07
Final report
Increase the profile of Victoria’s estuaries
Nov05 Sept 07
Housing the science
April 06 Feb 07 Dec 07Nov 05
www.dse.vic.gov.au