Assessing caribou vulnerability to oil and gas … · Porcupine Caribou; CBH - Cape Bathurst; BNW - Bluenose West; BNE - Bluenose East; BAT ... Figure 16 Example calculation of “path-lines”

Assessing caribou vulnerability to oil and gas exploration and development in Eagle Plains, Yukon

AreportsubmittedtoYukon’sDepartmentofEnergy,MinesandResources

DonRussellandAnneGunn

ShadowLakeEnvironmental

March2017

Frontispiece

DempsterHighway,fallmigration(photosPeterMather)andmapshowing1985-2016pathwaysofPCHcollaredcaribou,theDempsterHighwayandaproposedoilandgasproject

TableofContents1 ExecutiveSummary................................................................................................................9

2 Introduction.........................................................................................................................14

3 Areviewofscientificknowledgeofdirectandindirectindustrialimpacts................16

3.1 Potentialindustrialimpacts:areview..........................................................................17

3.1.1 DirectImpacts......................................................................................................17

3.1.2 Indirectimpacts....................................................................................................22

3.2 PotentialImpactSummary...........................................................................................23

4 Expectedimpacts,andmitigationsrelativetothePorcupineCaribouHerd'secology 24

5 Sensitivity.............................................................................................................................25

5.1 WhatisSensitivity?......................................................................................................25

5.2 Trendsinherdproductivity..........................................................................................27

5.3 TrendsrelativetootherNorthAmericanHerds...........................................................28

5.4 ClimatewithinPCHrangerelativetootherNorthAmericanHerds.............................29

5.5 SensitivitySummary.....................................................................................................31

6 Exposure...............................................................................................................................31

6.1 WhatisExposure?........................................................................................................31

6.2 NorthernCross(Yukon)Ltd.proposedproject............................................................32

6.3 Pathanalysis.................................................................................................................33

6.3.1 Cariboudistribution..............................................................................................33

6.3.2 Timinganddegreeofuseofthe30-kmbufferzone............................................35

6.3.3 MovementratesandResidencytime...................................................................39

6.4 Climatetrendsinthe30-kmbufferzone.....................................................................41

6.5 Predictingfallmigrationpatternsfromweather.........................................................42

6.6 ModellingCumulativeeffects.......................................................................................43

6.7 ExposureSummary.......................................................................................................46

7 Adaptivecapacity.................................................................................................................46

7.1 Whatisadaptivecapacity?...........................................................................................46

7.2 BestManagementPracticesversusmitigation............................................................48

7.2.1 BestManagementPractices–whatweknow......................................................48

7.2.2 BestManagementPractices-whatwedonotknow............................................50

7.3 Mitigation.....................................................................................................................51

7.3.1 Mitigationsummary.............................................................................................54

7.4 Monitoring....................................................................................................................54

7.5 Significantnumberofcaribou......................................................................................55

7.5.1 Numberofcollarsrequiredtorepresentherddistribution.................................56

7.5.2 Translatingcollarsrelativetocaribouabundanceontheground........................57

7.5.3 VHFcollars............................................................................................................59

7.6 Accessmanagement.....................................................................................................60

7.7 Benefitsofatechnicaladvisorygroup.........................................................................63

7.8 Knowledgegaps............................................................................................................65

7.8.1 Adaptivemanagement.........................................................................................65

7.8.2 Habituationandlearning......................................................................................67

7.8.3 Stress....................................................................................................................67

7.8.4 Implicationsofcollectivebehaviour.....................................................................68

7.8.5 Environmentaltrendsandvariation.....................................................................68

7.8.6 Linkingdifferentscalesofabundancemonitoring...............................................68

7.9 HabitatManagement...................................................................................................69

7.9.1 ConformitytoNYLUP............................................................................................69

7.9.2 The“1002”issue...................................................................................................70

7.10 Harvestmanagement...................................................................................................72

7.10.1 Harvestmonitoringcasestudy:AgnicoEagle.......................................................72

8 Specificquestions.................................................................................................................73

8.1.1 Shoulddrillingbecompletedinfeweryearsorovertime?.................................73

8.1.2 Prosandconsofseasonaldrilling........................................................................74

8.1.3 BMPsformigratingversuswinteringresidentcaribou?......................................74

8.1.4 Significantnumberofcaribouandsafeoperatingdistance.................................78

8.1.5 WhatisaneffectivemechanismforincludingaffectedFirstNationsandco-managementbodiesinanadaptivemanagementframework?...............................78

9 Recommendations...............................................................................................................79

10 Acknowledgements..........................................................................................................80

11 References........................................................................................................................80

AppendixA:AsummaryofthePrudhoeBayoilfieldandtheresponsesoftheCentralArcticHerd(CAH)...................................................................................................................................86

AppendixB:Borealcaribouavoidanceofroads..........................................................................93

AppendixC:Caribourelatedbestpractices.................................................................................97

ListofFigures

Figure1Approachtoassessingeffectsofindustrialchangeonmigratorytundracaribou.........17

Figure2Conceptualmodeloutliningbehaviouralmechanismsbywhichincreasedratesofhumandisturbancecouldcausepopulationdecline(fromFridandDill2002).Thebluearrowsindicateapositive(up)ornegative(down)response..............................................18

Figure3AveragedailytrafficfortheDempsterHighway(downloadedFebruary2017’:www.hpw.gov.yk.ca/pdf/traf2011.pdf)...............................................................................19

Figure4Topicsdiscussedinthisreport(inred)linkedassessmentcomponents........................25

Figure5RelativedeclineintheBathurstcaribouherdunder3scenariosofearlysummerplantgrowth(Russell,unpub).......................................................................................................26

Figure6FallbackfatforNorthAmericanarcticcaribouherds.(Boo-E-BoothiaEast,STH–Southampton,BluBluenoseEast,Bath–Bathurst,QAM–Qamanirjuaq,BEV-Beverly,GRH–GeorgeRiverHerd,PCH-PorcupineCaribou;).........................................................27

Figure7PercentdeclineduringmostrecentdeclinesinNorthAmericanherds.Barcolourrepresentcurrentstatusoftheherd(greenincreasing;yellowdecliningorstable)...........28

Figure8TheprobabilityofpregnancyversusrelativeBodyWeightforNorthAmericanherds.Blackdashedlinedelineates0.5probabilityofgettingpregnant........................................29

Figure9AverageclimateconditionsforNorthAmericanHerds.(CAH-CentralArctic;PCH-PorcupineCaribou;CBH-CapeBathurst;BNW-BluenoseWest;BNE-BluenoseEast;BAT-Bathurst;AHI-Ahiak;BEV-Beverly;QAM–Qamanirjuaq(source:CARMAClimatedatabase–seeRusselletal.,2013)......................................................................................30

Figure10:MaximumnumberofcollarsmonitoredbetweenApril1985andJanuary2016.......33

Figure11MovementpathsofthePCHfrom1985-2016.Purplezoneis30-kmbufferaroundNCYproposedinfrastructure.Brownpathsintersectedorfellentirelywithinthe30-kmbuffer....................................................................................................................................34

Figure12Movementpathsthatintersecteda30-kmbufferaroundNCYproposedprojectinfrastructure1985-2016.....................................................................................................35

Figure13Percentoftotalpathsthatintersecta30-kmbufferaroundproposedNCYinfrastructuresinfall,winterandspring..............................................................................37

Figure14Caribouuseofthe30-kmbufferzone:A)percentofyearscariboupresent;andB)averagepercentofherdusingthe30-kmbufferzone........................................................38

Figure15Monthlyaveragemovementwithin30-kmbufferzone(1985-2015).........................39

Figure16Examplecalculationof“path-lines”inahypotheticalbufferzone..............................40

Figure17Averageresidencytimepercollaredanimalintersectinga30-kmbufferzonearoundproposedNCYinfrastructure................................................................................................40

Figure18March31snowdepthina30-kmNCYbufferarea(three-yearrunningaverage).......41

Figure19JulydroughtindexinaNCY30-kmbufferzone(three-yearrunningaverage)............42

Figure20SchematicoftheCaribouCumulativeEffects(CCE)modelshowingsub-modelcomponentsinredandvarioussub-modelinputs/outputsinblue.....................................45

Figure21Theadaptivemanagementcycleisanimportantcomponentinvulnerabilityassessment...........................................................................................................................47

Figure22Anexampleofescalatingmitigationforroadandtrafficuse......................................51

Figure23Theadaptivemitigation-monitoringcycleincorporatingescalatingmitigationconcept.................................................................................................................................52

Figure24ThestudydesignshowingEarlyWarning,BufferandZoneofInfluencearoundahypotheticalexplorationsite.FromGunnandPoole(2011)...............................................58

Figure25TwoexamplesoftheresultsofcollarlocationandaerialsurveysfromstudybyGunnandPoole(2011)..................................................................................................................58

Figure26Themapshowsthesixaccesspoints(reddots)forthewinterorall-weatherroadsneededtoaccessthedrillsitesfromtheDempsterHighway..............................................61

Figure27SchematicofadaptivemanagementfromRacheretal.,2010....................................66

Figure28MovementpathsofthePCHthrougha30-kmbufferaroundproposedNCYinfrastructure(1985-2016)...................................................................................................76

Figure29SuggestedmitigationflowchartforNCYproject.........................................................77

ListofTables

Table1:ListoftasksidentifiedbyEnergyMinesandResourcesrelativetoNorthernCross’s2015EaglePlainsproposal...................................................................................................15

Table2:Seasons,riskcategory,timingandcariboususceptibilitydevelopedforbarren-groundcaribouinNunavut(KivalliqInuitAssociation2016)withthedatesforthePorcupineherd(PCMB1993).........................................................................................................................50

Table3:Vehicleprotocolswhenencounteringcaribou,developedfortheAREVA’sproposedKiggavikmine,Nunavut........................................................................................................53

Table4:ThreeoptionsformonitoringwildlifeencountersalongroadsderivedfromproposedmonitoringforSabina’sBackRiverproject..........................................................................55

Table5:CollarandcaribouthresholdsforescalatingmitigationLevelsandassociatedmonitoringmethodsfortheNorthernCrossproject.GroupsareNCY-NorthernCrossYukon;Env.Yukon-EnvironmentYukon;andPCMB-PorcupineCaribouManagementBoard....................................................................................................................................55

Table6:ComponentsofanAccessManagementPlanpreparedbyNCYwithcommentsfromVGFNandthisreport............................................................................................................61

1 Executive Summary Introduction:InFebruary2016,theYukonEnvironmentalandSocio-economicAssessmentBoard(YESAB)releaseditsdecisiononNorthernCrossYukon’s(NCY)“EaglePlainsmulti-wellexplorationanddevelopmentpermit.”Theirdecisionwasessentiallythatduetoknowledgegaps,includingimpactsonthePorcupineherdandtheaboriginalgroupsthatdependontheherdforsubsistenceneeds,YESABwasunabletoassessenvironmentalandsocio-economicimpactsfortheproject.Givenanumberofdeficienciesanddatagapsthatwereidentifiedthroughoutthewholereviewprocess,EMRandtheVuntutGwitchinFirstNation(VGFN)feltitimportanttoassembleinformationavailableonpotentialimpacts,mitigationandbestpracticesforcaribouinteractingwithoilandgasdevelopment,bothwithrespecttotheNCYandotherpotentialfuturedevelopmentintheregion.

WerealizedthatanunderlyingissuewasuncertaintyabouthowinformationonthePorcupineherd‘fitted’withthe‘applied’questionsaboutreducingandmanagingimpactsofdevelopment.ThusweorganizedtheinformationfollowingthestructureadoptedbytheInternationalPanelonClimateChangeinassessingvulnerability(toimpactsofclimatechangeontheenvironment)generalizedtoassessthevulnerabilityofcariboutoindustrialexplorationanddevelopments(IPCC2007).IPCC(2007)describedPotentialimpactasafunctionofthesensitivityofaparticularsystemtochange(climateandindustrialexplorationanddevelopments)anditsexposuretothosechanges.Thecapacitytoadapttothosechangesismodifiedbyherdandhabitatmanagementaswellasmitigationoftheindustrialactivity.Monitoringisthefeedbackbetweenimpactsandmitigations(adaptivemitigation).

Potentialimpacts:Potentialimpactsaretheoutcomeoftheexposureofthecariboutoanindustrialdevelopmentandtheirsensitivitytoenvironmentalchanges.Ourreviewofpotentialimpactscoversthespatialgradientfromcariboustandingalertedbyaroadwatchingtruckstocaribouchangingtheirmovement’skilometresawayfromaroadordrillsite.Weidentifywhatisknownaboutthemechanismsthatexplainhowsmallchangesincariboubehaviourcanaccumulatetoreducetheirproductivity.Wedescribehowcaribouareintegratingtheirresponsestodisturbancewithchangesinhabitatcausedbyoilandgasexplorationandacascadeofchangesincludingincreasedpredation.Caribourespondtodisturbanceinasimilarwayastheydotopredatorsbyavoidanceandflightandselectinghabitattominimizetheirriskofexposuretorisk.Agapinourknowledgeaboutpotentialimpactsistheroleofmemoryandlearningwhichallowscariboutosaveenergybyrespondingless(habituationandtolerance).WereviewspecificallythepotentialimpactsbasedonstudiesonthePorcupineCaribouherd.Weidentifyfourissuesstandoutaswhereourknowledgeisinadequatefordescribingdirectimpacts.

• Avoidanceofroadsandtrafficismeasuredforsomeherdsbuttheunderlyingmechanismisuncertain,raisingquestionsabouthowtodesignmitigation.

• Theextenttowhichhuntinginteractswiththeresponsestoroadtrafficandincreasestheresponsivenessisuncertainwhichreducesthepredictabilityofcaribouresponsestooilandgasandappropriatemitigation.

• Whilebehaviouralobservationscanbeusedtomeasuretheresponsivenessofcaribou,theobservationsarenotintegratedwiththemovementratesanddirectionsofcariboufittedwithsatelliteorGPScollars.

• Welackstudieswithadequatesampledesigntodescribebarren-groundcariboubehaviouralresponsestothesequencesofseismiclines,drillingorextendedflowtestingwhichisessentialtobeablepredictresponsestoexploration.

Sensitivity:Theincrease,declineandincreaseofabundanceforthePorcupineherdrecordedsincetheearly1970sischaracterizedbyrelativelylowratechanges(-4%to+4%).Theherdtrendappearstostronglycorrelatetoadultcowmortality,aspregnancyrateremainedrelativelystablethroughoutthepopulationcycles.Atthephysiologicallevel,thePCHaccumulatesthelowestfallbackfatamongherdswithcomparabledata.Oneinterpretationistheherdhasevolvedwitharelativelyfavourablewinterenvironmenteitherbecauseof:1)availabilityoffavourablesnowconditionseitherfromlowersnowfallsoradiversetopographysocariboucanspaceawayfromadversesnow:or2)anoverallpredictablewinterenvironment.Theprobabilitythatacowwillgetpregnantfollowsasigmoidalrelationshipwithfallbodyweight.Boththesteepnessofthecurveandtherelativeweightthatisassociatedwitha50%chanceofgettingpregnanthasbeensuggestedtorelatetothevulnerability(thesteeperthemorevulnerable)andtheproductivity(thelowertherelativeweightthemoreproductive).Amongherdswithcomparabledata,thePCHisoneoftheleastproductivebutisalsotheleastvulnerable,suggestingthatitwillneverincreaseordeclinedramaticallyandnever“erupt”tohighpopulationdensities.

IncomparisontomigratorytundraherdsacrossNorthAmerica,thePCHexperienceswarmearlyspringconditions(highJune10growingdegreedays)andcoolmoistsummers,resultinginlowdroughtconditionsandrelativelydeepsnowaccumulationsinwinter.Thissuggestsaprolongedplantphenologyprofile,higherqualitysummerforage,andlowermosquitoandoestridflyharassmentindices.Wintersnowdepthsarerelativelyhighcomparedtootherherdsbutthediverseterrainallowstheherdtoseekshallowersnowareaduringbadwinters.

Thuswithrespecttotheadversepotentialimpactsofhumanactivity,wespeculatethatthePorcupineHerdhasevolvedinafavourableenvironmentresultedinlargercalvesbutlowwinterreserves.Thuswithlowinherentproductivity,theintroductionofsignificantindustrialactivitycould,withoutdramaticallyaffectingpregnancyrateorcowmortality,preventthePorcupineherdfromrecoveringduringadeclinephaseorsignificantlyreducetherateofincreaseduringpopulationexpansion.

Exposure:ThecurrentandpotentialfutureexposureofthePCHtoproposedNCYinfrastructurewasassessedusingapathanalysisofcollarsfromApril1985-January2016.Weuseda30-km

bufferzonetodetermineuse,movementratesandresidencytime.Thenumberofsatellitecollarsavailablevariedconsiderablyamongyears,peakingat45in2015.Caribouthatinteractwiththe30-kmbufferinfallfollowamigrationroutesouthalongthewestsideoftheRichardsonMountains,turningsouthwestjustnorthofEagleRiver,althoughintheyearwhenmostcollarspassedthroughthebufferzone(2013),cariboumovedsouthfromOldCrow,directlythroughtheEaglePlansareaviaJohnsonandChanceCreeks(M.Suitor,pers.comm.).VisualexaminationoffallmovementpathssuggeststheDempsterHighwaymaybeactingasabarriermovementtowinterrangessouthofthehighwayinthemidPeelRiver,HungryLakesarea.Itispossiblehoweverthatthismovementpatternmayreflecthabitatdifferencessocautionshouldbetakenuntilfurtheranalysisiscomplete.TheconsequenceofthesemovementpathswithrespecttoNorthernCrossisthesignificantlyhigheruseoftheChanceCreekareaandlesseruseofproposedwellsitesandroadssoutheastoftheDempsterHighway.

CariboufirstarriveinSeptemberandareessentiallygonebyMay(onlytwopathsrecordedinMay).ThereisaprogressivedeclineinpercentusefromOctober(44%)toApril(15%)basedonthepercentofyearsthatcaribouinterceptthebufferzone.Basedonthemonthlyaverage,percentofpathsOctober(4.1%)andDecember(4.5%)hadthehighestusebetween1985and2016.However,bothmonthswereinfluencedbyasingleyear(1990forDecember;2015forOctober).

MovementratesinthebufferzonedeclinedfromSeptember(14.5kmperday)toMarch(2.0km/day)increasinginApril(6.4km/day)asspringmigrationbegins.Withrespecttoresidencytime,caribouduringMarchspentonaverage16.8daysinthebuffer,duringfallmigrationresidencytimeincreasedfromSeptember(4.2days)toDecember(14.3days).

Usingclimatedatadownloadedfromthe30-kmbufferzonewenoteadecliningtrendinsnowdepthandanincreasingtrendinJulydrought.FrompreviousanalysislowersnowmeanshigherprobabilityofuseinEaglePlainsbuthigherdroughtmeanshigherprobabilityoffire,lesslichensandthusloweruse.

ThereisaneedtointegratethecumulativeeffectsofexistingandpotentialfuturechangeswithintherangeofthePCH.Wepresentanexistingmodelstructurethathasbeenappliedtoothermigratorytundraherds.

Adaptivecapacity:Adaptivecapacityiswhatneedstobedonetoreducethepotentialimpacts.ThuswithintheconceptasappliedtooilandgasdevelopmentandthePCH,adaptivecapacityincludeshabitatandharvestmanagementandproject-specificmitigation.Further,toimprovetheproject-specificmitigation,theeffectivenessofmitigationmeasuresneedstobemonitoredanddeficienciesidentified,mitigationadjustedandimplemented–theadaptivemonitoringcycle.Thus,thereneedstobeacollaborativecariboutechnicaladvisorygrouptooverseetheprocess.

Inourreview,wefoundthatthedistinctionbetweenBestManagementPracticesandmitigationisunclear.Asagenerality,BestManagementPracticesarenormallyinplacethoroughpolicyorlegislationandtheirgoalisto“avoid”and/or“minimize”industryeffectson

caribou.Typically,theyarebroad-levelrecommendationsattheregionalscale.WeprovideanexampleofBMPforMountainCaribouinnorthernB.C.thatcoversallthemaintopicsthatneedtobeaddressedforbarren-groundcaribou(seeAppendixC).Takingthetopicstoamoredetailedlevelconstitutesaproject-specificmitigationplan.WeprovideanexamplerelatedtotimingofoperationswithrespecttosensitivelifecycleperiodsforthePCH.

WhatweknowtheleastaboutBestManagementPracticesishowtheyareimplementedandreviewed.Forexample,withintheexistingBMPforseismicoperations,wedonotknowhowtheyworkinpractice,asthereappearstobenofeedbackreportingonhowtheyareimplementedorhowadaptivemitigationforspecificdevelopmentswouldprovidefeedbackonanygapsintheseismicBMP.

Potentialimpactsincludethatcaribouavoidroadsandtrafficatvariabledistancesdependingonvegetation,observationmethods,predationandhunting.However,theresultsofreducingthoseimpactsthroughmonitoringandmitigationareuncertain.Wefoundmanyproposedactionsbasedonspeed,stoppingdistancesetcbutalmostnofollow-uptodetermineeffectiveness.Thesamegeneralpointcanbemadeaboutotherproposedmitigationandthresholdstomodifymitigationthroughmonitoring.Whilemuchinformationisavailableonbestpracticesandmitigation,itismostlyforborealandmountaincaribouandthereislessinformationformigratorytundracaribou.Thisleadsustosuggestthatamorecollaborativeapproach,integratingbaselineinformationonmovementswithenvironmentalvariation,wouldbethebasisforbestpracticesandmitigation.

Thekeytorelyingoncollarlocationsishavingconfidenceincollarsrepresentingcaribouabundanceatthespatialandnumerical(#ofcaribou)scalethatdecisionsneedtobemade.Afewstudieshaveaddressedthisproblemonlargemigratorycaribouherds.However,howmanycollarsareneededtoberepresentativeforaherdwillvaryseasonallyastheseasonalrangesvarygreatlyinsize.Wediscussmethodsandresultsofthreestudiesrelevanttolargemigratoryherds.InLabrador,Ottoetal.,2003determinedthenumberofsatellitecollarsrequiredtosuccessfullymitigateimpactsoflowjetoverflightsontheGeorgeRiverherd.Rettie(2008)usedcomputersimulationstoevaluatehowmanycollarswouldbenecessarytobe80%confidentthatdistributionwouldhave90%ofthegroupsduringcalvingorpost-calvingcensussurveys.AdamczewskiandBoulanger(2016)workingontheBathurstCaribouHerdarguedforanincreaseinthenumberofcollarsontheherdtosatisfyanumberofusesincludingassessingfemalesurvival,andconfidentlyrepresentingwinterdistributiontoaidinharvestmanagementanddetectinginteractionswithdevelopmentinfrastructure.

Thesmallsamplesizesofcollaredcaribouaretypicalofbarren-groundcariboumonitoringandtheconsequentlowencounterratesrestrictsrelyingononlycollaredcaribouformonitoring.TheonlyexamplewefoundwasdesignedtoaddresstheneedformobileprotectionareasinthewinterandmigrationrangesoftheBluenoseEastCaribouHerd(GunnandPoole2011).Theyconcludedthatthesatellite-collaredcowlocationswere,withinthescaleoftheirpilotproject,relativelypredictiveoftheoverallnumbersofcaribouwithinthebufferzoneandthe

zoneofinfluence.However,theuseofthecollarsalonewithoutaerialsurveyscouldresultineitherunnecessaryrestrictionsorlossofprotectionforcaribou.Weproposethatthereneedstobeamorerigorouslydesignedresearchprojectthataddsground-basedsurveystoGunnandPoole’s(2011)protocols.Inreviewingtheprojectproposalandinformationrequestswenotethelackofanyclearlinkbetweencollarlocation,tracksurveysandheightoflandsurveys.Wealsodiscusstheuseofnewtechnology,forexampleusingtheVHFcollarsontheherdbydevelopinginnovativewaystomonitormovementsneartheproposeddevelopmentwiththeuseoftowersordronetechnology.

Accessmanagementisanimportantissuethathaspotentialimpactswithrespectto:1)caribouencounterswithdevelopment,2)timing,distributionandquantityofharvestand3)howcariboumayreacttohumanactivity.WeprovidesomeofourthoughtsonAccessmanagementandthebenefitsofacariboutechnicalAdvisorygroup,providingasampleTermsofReferenceasanappendix.Weconcludethemitigationsectionwithourperspectivesofkeyknowledgegapstobettermitigateandmonitorimpactsoncaribou:

• Adaptivemanagement• Habituationandlearning• Stress• Implicationsofcollectivebehavior• Environmentaltrendsandvariation• Linkingdifferentscalesofabundancemonitoring

Habitatmanagement:ThePorcupinecaribouherdisfortunateinrespecttotheamountofprotectedlandswithintheirrange,howeverstrongerprotectionisprimarilyoncalvinggroundsandsummerrange.Forareasnotundersometenureofprotection(suchastheEaglePlains),theNorthYukonLandUsePlan(NYLUP)hasstratifiedthelandscapewithrespecttosensitivitytocaribouandpotentialfordevelopment.ThecurrentleasebyNorthernCrossYukonfallsunderAreadesignatedashighpotentialfordevelopment.AsasafeguardthePlanalsosetsthresholdsforlinearandsurfacedisturbance.Inreviewingcommentsfromoutsidegroupsthemainconcernwastheeliminationofanumberofolderseismicline(non-forestedandlikelytohaverecovered),whichdroppedthecurrentlinearandsurfacedisturbancewellbelowthresholdvalues.WithoutreducingthoseseismiclinetheNCYprojectwouldraisecurrentlinearandsurfacedisturbanceto“cautionary”or“critical”levelswithrespecttothethresholds.Weproposea“verificationtest”thatwoulddetermineiftheeliminationofthoselinesaltersourcurrentknowledgeoftheZoneofInfluencearoundseismiclines.WealsoofferanoteofcautionwithrespecttohabitatprotectionaftertheelectionofDonaldTrumpandthecontrolofboththeSenateandHouseofRepresentativeintheU.S.Along-standingissuemaycometoaheadwiththeopeningupoftheAlaskanportionofthePCH’scalvinggroundstooilandgasdevelopment.

Harvestmanagement:Thereisawell-developedstrategyforHarvestmanagementcoordinatedbythePorcupineCaribouManagementBoard.TheBoarddidexpressconcernaboutnewaccessprovidedbytheNCYprojectandwishedthatabettersystemwereinplacetotrackthemagnitudeandspatialextentofharvest.WeprovideanexampleofAgnicoEagle’sprojectinNunavutandhowtheywereabletoquantifytheredistributionofharvestafteranallseasonaccessroadwasconstructed.

Finallywehighlighteightrecommendations:

1. CreationofaTechnicalWorkingGrouptooverseethemitigation/monitoringcycleforNorthernCross

2. AnappropriateCommitteetodrawupBestManagementPracticesforYukoncaribou3. Needforadatarepository4. Undertakeacumulativeeffectsanalysis5. Projecttorelatecaribouonthegroundrelativetosatellite6. MonitorharvestinnewaccessthroughaharveststudysimilartoAgnicoEaglestudyor

througharevitalizedhuntercheckstationalongtheDempster.7. Updateanalysestopredictfallandwintermovementsfromclimate–especiallysnowfall

andestimatetherangeofnaturalvariation.8. Validatetheexclusionofnon-forestseismicfromthresholdcalculations.

2 Introduction InFebruary2016,theYukonEnvironmentalandSocio-economicAssessmentBoard(YESAB)releaseditsdecisiononNorthernCross’s“EaglePlainsmulti-wellexplorationanddevelopmentpermit.”Theirdecisionwasessentiallythatduetoknowledgegaps,includingimpactsonthePorcupineherdandtheaboriginalgroupsthatdependontheherdforsubsistenceneeds,YESABwasunabletoassessenvironmentalandsocio-economicimpactsfortheproject.AsaresultofthisuncertaintytheprojectwasreferredtotheExecutiveCommitteeoftheYukongovernment.CurrentlythatYESABdecisionisunderajudicialreview.

InitsdecisionYESABidentifiedsixissuesthatwouldhavehelpedinformtheirdecision:

1. AccesstoanduseofthePCHbyFirstNationsandtheInuvialuitinrelationtotheprojectareaandpotentialzonesofinfluencefromprojectactivities;

2. Therelationshipbetweenbarren-groundcaribouandlanduseactivities,withfocusonrangeutilizationinresponsetosurfacedisturbanceandlineardensity;

3. Baselinedatatoassesscumulativeeffectsanddevelopmentalthresholds(e.g.cumulativesurfacedisturbanceimpactsandpotentialeffectsonhabitatquantityandquality);

4. CumulativeimpactsofexplorationanddevelopmentactivitiesonaccesstoanduseofthePCHbyFirstNationsandtheInuvialuit;

5. DevelopmentofBestManagementPracticesasguidancetooilandgasactivitiesin

relationtothePCH;and6. AprocesstoestablishsafeoperatingdistancesandcriticalnumbersforthePCH.

Givenanumberofdeficienciesanddatagapsthatwereidentifiedthroughoutthewholereviewprocess,EMRandtheVuntutGwitchinFirstNation(VGFN)feltitimportanttoassembleinformationavailableonpotentialimpacts,mitigationandbestpracticesforcaribouinteractingwithoilandgasdevelopment.

Afterfollow-upmeetings(Oct.18andNov.21)withEMRandVGFNLandsBranchrepresentatives,weagreedthatthefocusofthecontractwouldbe“toassessthevulnerabilityofthePCHtochangesinitsenvironmentwithspecificfocusonpotentialoilandgasdevelopmentontheEaglePlains.”

WhilewehavefocusedonassessingthevulnerabilityofthePorcupineHerd,wehaveprovidedinformationusingEMR’slistoftasks(Table1)toguidethestructureofthereport.Wehaveidentifiedinformationgapsaswellaswhatweknow,andwhatstillneedstobedonetomitigateanyeffectsofdevelopment.

Table1:ListoftasksidentifiedbyEnergyMinesandResourcesrelativetoNorthernCross’s2015EaglePlainsproposal.

Compileandreviewexistingscientificknowledgeregardingdirectandindirectindustrialimpactsandfocusonbarrengroundcaribouwherepossible;Gatherinformationontheexpectedeffects,impacts,andmitigationsrelativetothePorcupineCaribouHerd'secology;ConsiderdifferinglevelsofintensityforeachsetofactivitiesReviewtheYESABapplicationmadebytheproponentandthesubmissionsofothersduringtheDesignatedOfficeRevieworanysubsequentYESABprocessifthecontractisineffectatthattime.ParticularemphasiswillfocusonanycommentsmadeaboutthePorcupineCaribouHerd(PCH)andpossiblemitigativemeasures.Reviewandcommenton:

• thespecific recommendationoftheNorthYukonRegionalLandUsePlantodetermine "safeoperatingdistances"; and

• theYESABNorthernCrossYukon30seismicprogramrecommendation todetermine"significant numbers".

• ThresholdsofcaribouabundanceforactivityIdentifyknowledgegapsinanybestmanagementpracticesthatexist,includinggapsthatwillinformBMPdevelopment.IdentifyandcommentonrelevantsectionsofthelanduseplanandexistingPCHconservationmanagementmeasuresthatexistwithintherangeofthePCHthatmaymitigatetheproposeddrillingprogram.DiscusswiththeDepartmentofEnvironment'sproposedmitigationplanforPCHwith

respecttotheproposedNorthernCrossProject.SpecificquestionstheContractoristoconsiderandaddress:

• shouldthedrillingbecompletedinfeweryearsorovertime?;• whataretheprosandconsofseasonaldrillingi.e.summeronlyversus

winter?;• whatarethesuggestedBMPsforaherdmigratingorresidingintheareaof

activityversusaherd;thatchoosestoresidewithintheareaofindustrialactivities?;and

• whatisaneffectivemechanismorprocessformeaningfulinclusionofaffectedFirstNationsandco-managementbodiesinanadaptivemanagementframework?

ThequestionsofBestManagementPracticesandmitigationforcaribouarebeingaddressedindifferentjurisdictionsacrossCanada.ConservationstatushaspromptedtheneedtoconservecaribouhabitatinwesternCanada,whichhasledtomitigationforoilandgasdevelopment.WehavereferencedasmuchoftherelevantapplicableapproachesforcaribouintheYukon.TheconservationstatusofborealandmountaincaribouhasencouragedthedevelopmentofBestPracticesinBCandAlberta.Yukon’scaribouareNorthernMountaincaribou,whichareassessedasSpecialConcernexceptthePorcupineHerdisassessedasbarren-groundcaribouandin2016,waslistedasThreatened.Industrialdevelopmentwasrankedasoneofseveralinteractingthreatsforbarren-groundcaribou.SpeciesofSpecialConcernrequireamanagementplantopreventthemfrombecomingThreatenedorEndangered(EnvironmentCanada2012).

3 A review of scientific knowledge of direct and indirect industrial impacts

WerealizedthatanunderlyingissuewasuncertaintyabouthowinformationonthePorcupineherd‘fitted’withthe‘applied’questionsaboutreducingandmanagingimpactsofdevelopment.ThusweorganizedtheinformationfollowingthestructureadoptedbytheInternationalPanelonClimateChangeinassessingvulnerability(toimpactsofclimatechangeontheenvironment)generalizedtoassessthevulnerabilityofcariboutoindustrialexplorationanddevelopments(Figure1;IPCC2007).IPCC(2007)describedPotentialimpactasafunctionofthesensitivityofaparticularsystemtochange(climateandindustrialexplorationanddevelopments)anditsexposuretothosechanges.Thecapacitytoadapttothosechanges(Figure1)ismodifiedbyherdandhabitatmanagementaswellasmitigationoftheindustrialactivity.Monitoringisthefeedbackbetweenimpactsandmitigations(adaptivemitigation).

Figure1Approachtoassessingeffectsofindustrialchangeonmigratorytundracaribou.

3.1 Potential industrial impacts: a review Potentialimpactsaretheoutcomeoftheexposureandsensitivityofthecariboutoanindustrialactivitysuchasroads,seismiclinesanddrilling.Byintegratingexposurewiththesensitivities,inthiscase,forthePorcupineHerd(Section5),wecanbetterpredictpotentialimpactsandhowtomitigatethem(Figure2).

Thestateofknowledgeaboutdirectandindirectimpactsofindustrialandhumanactivitiesoncaribouislargeandvariedwhichreflectsthediverseecologyofcaribouandchangesintechniquesandanalysesoversome40yearsofstudies.Reviewsareavailableforthebehaviouralresponsesofbarren-groundcaribouandsowehavenotrepeatedthem(forexample,Bergerudetal.1984;Wolfe2000;Stankowich2008;ABRandBraundAssociates2014).Instead,wesummarizewhatisknownaboutresponsesofthePorcupineherdtoindustrialdisturbanceandfindingsfromrecentstudies.

3.1.1 DirectImpactsThetheoreticalframeworkfordescribingdirectimpacts(Figure2)isbasedonthatcaribouhaveasimilarrepertoireofdirectresponsestopeopleandvehiclesastheydotopredators(FridandDill2001).Thecaribouthroughvigilanceandmovementsminimizetheriskofpredationevenattheexpenseofreducedforaging.Humandisturbanceandpredationriskindirectlyimpactcaribousurvivalandreproductionthroughtrade-offsbetweenperceivedriskandenergyintakefromforaging.InformationonhowcariboureducetheirforagingtimefirstcamefromstudiesatthePrudhoeBayoilfield,Alaska(AppendixA)wherecaribouinthevicinityofdrillsitesreducedtheirforagingandlyingtime.Wheninsectharassmentwasabsent,cariboumovedfasterandspent25%lesstimelyingandmoretimestandinginthevicinityoftheroadandpipelineandwerethemostreactivewithin600m(MurphyandCuratolo1987).

Thedurationandfrequencyofcaribouresponsespartiallydependsontheintensityofdisturbance:forexample,RussellandMartell(1985)didnotfindalteredactivitybudgets(exceptlesssparring)forPorcupineHerdcaribouclosetotheDempsterHighwayinfallandwinters1979-81.However,trafficwasinfrequentasthehighwayhadonlyofficiallyopenedin1979.ThedistancefromtheDempsterHighwayatwhichcariboureacted(toatruck)dependedonthetruck’sspeedandiftheapproachwasdirectlytowardthecaribou(Horesji1981).

Aswellasdailyactivities,cariboualsochangedtheirdistributionrelativetodisturbance.Cariboudistributionrecordedduringaerialsurveyswaslessthanexpectedwithin4kmalongarecentlyconstructedroadintheoilfieldonthecalvingandsummerrangeoftheCentralArcticherd(Cameronetal.2005).Theavoidancewithin4kmofroadswasalsoreportedforwildreindeerinNorway(Nellemanetal.2001).Howeverelsewhere,thereisvariabilityinthedistancesatwhichthecaribouavoidtheroads(AppendixBsummarisesfindingsforborealcaribou).ThisissimilartofindingsfromNorwaywheretheresponsesofwildreindeerfittedwithGPScollarsvariedat1,5,and10kmscales(Panzacchietal.2013a).Thewildreindeer’savoidancewasstrongestfortouristcabinsandroads.Boulangeretal.(2012)measuredaZoneofInfluence(azonewithreducedcariboudistribution)of11-14kmaroundanopenpitmine(withhaulroads23kminlength)onthesummerandfallrangeoftheBathurstherdusingpresenceorabsencedatafromaerialsurveys.

Increasingly,useofsatellite-collaredcaribouhasaddedtoourunderstandingofresponsestoroadsandtrafficincludingavoidance,deflectionandreducedcrossingsuccess.Forexample,

Figure2Conceptualmodeloutliningbehaviouralmechanismsbywhichincreasedratesofhumandisturbancecouldcausepopulationdecline(fromFridandDill2002).Thebluearrowsindicateapositive(up)ornegative(down)response.

JohnsonandRussell(2014)usedthe27yearsofcollaringinthePorcupineherdtoestimateavoidancedistancesforthePorcupineherd.TheavoidancedistancefromtheDempsterHighwaydeclinedfrom30kmin1985–1998to18.5kmduring1999–2012.However,JohnsonandRussell(2014)alsonotedthatthelevelofindustrialexplorationhadslowedby1985andthenremainedlowonthewinterrangeofthePorcupineherd.WhilethetrafficontheDempsterhadincreased1994-2008,thefallandwintertraffichadremainedrelativelystable(Figure3).

Figure3AveragedailytrafficfortheDempsterHighway(downloadedFebruary2017’:www.hpw.gov.yk.ca/pdf/traf2011.pdf)

WhileJohnsonandRussell(2014)measuredthedistanceofreduceddensityofthePorcupineHerdcaribouwithrespecttotheDempsterHighway,Wilsonetal.(2016)measuredtherateofmovementascaribouoftheWesternArcticherdasthecaribouapproachedamineroad.TheWesternArcticherdduringfallmigrationapproachesthe85km-longprivatehaulroadbuiltfortheRedDogmine(Dau2015).Theroadhasbeeninoperationsince1989andhaultrucksmakeabout49roundtripsperday(4vehiclesperhour).Formostofthelengthoftheroadthereisnohuntingasitisaprivateroad(ABRandBraundAssociates2014,Wilsonetal.2016).Wilsonetal.(2016)reportthatsomecaribouslowedastheyapproachedtheroadandtookanaverageof33.3±17.0(SD)daystocrosstheroadcomparedto3.1±5.5daysfornormalcrossers.Aftercrossingtheslowcrossersmoved>1.5fasterthannormalcrossers.

InNorway,pregnantwildreindeerweremigratingtotheircalvinggroundandhadtocrossahighwaywithanaverageof500vehicles/day(21/vehicles/h).Thecowschangeddirectionandparalleledtheroadforca.5daysbeforecrossingwhentrafficfrequencywaslowestaftermidnight.Duringfallmigration,trafficfrequencywaslower(12vehicles/h)andthereindeercrossedtheroaddirectly(Panzacchietal.2013b).InsummeratthePrudhoeBayoilfield,MurphyandCuratolo(1987)reportedthatwhenthetrafficfrequencywas15to32vehicles/h,cariboucrossingsuccessofaroadwaslow(theroadwasparalleledbyanelevatedpipeline).

Theseasonalexposureanddifferentsensitivitybysexandageclassandexperiencecontributealargepartofthevariationtothedifferentlevelsofresponsesbycariboutoindustrialdevelopment.Anothersourceofvariationishowtheresponsesweremeasured.Forexample,attheEkatiopenpitmineintheNorthwestTerritoriesona21-kmall-weatherorehaulroad,55-60%ofthebarren-groundcariboutracksdeflectedfromtheroadbasedonsnowtracking(2002-2011).However,basedonremotecameras,thedeflectionratewas1-2%(ERMRescan2014),whichlikelyreflectedthefieldofviewofthecamerasbeingdifferentfromtheareasampledalongtheroadbythetracksurveys.Furtherifcaribouaretypicallydeflectedfromcrossingaroad,theylikelywouldhavedeflectedmuchfurtheroutthanremotecameraspositionedalongtheroadsurface.

Theexposureofcariboutoindustrialdisturbancevarieswithseasonalmigrationsanddistribution.Forexample,thePorcupineherdisexposedtotheDempsterHighwayandoilandgasexplorationduringfallandspringmigrationandwinter(Section5)andwinterdistributionannuallyvarieswithsnowconditions(McNeilletal.2005).Incontrast,theCentralArcticandincreasingly,theTeshekpukherdsareexposedtooilexplorationanddevelopmentduringcalvingandpost-calving.Cariboudifferinsensitivitytodisturbanceduringdifferentseasons:forexample,Cameronetal.(2005)reportedthatparturientfemaleshadstrongeravoidanceofoilfieldstructuresthannon-parturientfemalesintheCentralArcticherd(AppendixA).Theorientationoftheroadrelativetomigrationislikelyanotherfactorcontributingvariability.Nicholsonetal.(2016)usingGPScollarsdidnotfindtheCentralArcticherdavoidedtheTransAlaskaPipelineandDaltonHighwayduring2003-06butthefallandspringmovementslargelyparalleledthestructures.

Caribouarenotonlyrespondingtohumanactivitiesbutalsothepresenceofpredatorsaswellasforageavailabilityandweather(Avgaretal.,2013,2015,HebblewhiteandMerrill2009;Ciutietal.,2012).Recently,wehavestartedtounderstandhowmemoryandlearningabilityaffectshabitatselection,whichaddsvariabilitytocaribouresponsestodevelopment(VanMoorteretal.,2009,Oliveira-Santosetal.,2015).JohnsonandRussell(2104)raisedthequestionofwhetherthereducedresponsesobservedwerenotareductionintheintensityofdisturbancebutthatthecaribouwerehabituatingtotheroadandtraffic.Habituationisthelearntreductioninbehaviouralresponsessuchastotrafficandroadsoroff-roadvehicles(Colmanetal.,2001,Haskelletal.,2006,ReimersandColman2006,HaskellandBallard2008).ReimersandColman(2006)suggestedthatcaribouhabituatetooff-roadvehiclestravellingonpredictabletrails.However,mountaincaribouexposedtointensesnowmobileactivitydidnothabituate(Seipetal.2007).ValkenburgandDavis(1985)notedthegreaterreactiontoaircraftoverflightselicitedbytheWesternArcticcariboucomparedtotheDeltacaribou.TheyconcludedthattheDeltaherdhadhabituatedtoaircraftand,forthemostpartdonotperceiveaircraftasathreat.TheWesternArcticherd,ontheotherhand,hadeithernotthetimetohabituatetothesoundorperceivedeverymotorizedsoundasathreat,becausesnowmobileswerealmostalwaysassociatedwithhuntingactivityintheWesternArcticherd.

Huntinghasastrongeffectonbehaviourandthosebehaviouralresponsesarecomplexandanimalsdifferentiatebetweenhumanactivitiessuchashuntingrelativetopredation(Ciutietal.2012aandb).Elk’sindividualexperienceandlearningalsoallowedthemtoadjusthabitatselectionrelativetotheriskofhunting(Thurfjelletal.2017).Theadvancesinunderstandinghowelkbehaverelativetohunting,predationandroadspredictsthatmemoryandexperiencelikelyplayaroleincariboubehaviourandleadership.Caribouaretypicallyinsocialgroups,whichinfluencetheirresponsestodisturbanceastheirbehaviouraffectseachother.Probably,onlyafewindividualssetthedirectionandpaceofmigrationandrespondtotheroadsandtheothercaribouinthegroupfollowthem(JohnsonandRussell2014;Wilsonetal.2016).Thisisalsotheunderlyingpremisefortheconceptof‘lettheleaderspass’whichhasbeenPCMB’smanagementapproachtohuntingalongtheDempsterHighway(Padilla2010).

Wecurrentlyareawareofthreeexampleswherehuntingmayinfluencecaribouresponsestoaroadandtraffic.ThefirstexampleisthePorcupineherdandtheDempsterHighway(Section6.3).ThereductioninthePorcupinecaribou’savoidancedistancemaybeduetoadeclineinhuntinglevel2000-2012(JohnsonandRussell2014).SurrendiandDeBock(1976)reportedthatthePorcupineherdcaribouweremoreresponsivetotrafficontheDempsterHighwaywhenitwasassociatedwithhuntingactivity.Thecaribou’sexposuretohuntingwouldhavechangedashuntingaccesschangedthroughdifferent“no-hunting”corridorsand‘lettingtheleaderspass’policies(Padilla2010).Theavoidanceofwellsitesandseismiclinesalsodeclinedduringthesametwoperiodsfrom11kmto6kmin1985–1998and1999–2012,respectivelywhichmayalsohavebeentheresultofnaturalvegetationrecovery(JohnsonandRussell2014).

ThesecondexampleofhuntingaffectingresponsetoroadsisonthefallandwinterrangeofLeafRiverherd,thecaribou’sfallmigrationbringsthemtoamajorall-weatherroadwithtrafficmostlyrelatedtohydroelectricinfrastructure,buttheroadisafocusforsporthuntingduringfallandwinter(Planteetal.2016).Landscapecharacteristicsbetterexplainedcaribouvulnerabilitytosporthuntingthanhabitatselectionofcaribouandhunters,ortheirco-occurrence.Caribouweremorevulnerableifclosetohuntinginfrastructures(e.g.,roads,outfittercamps)thanelsewhere,butcariboustronglyavoidedtheroad.Mostharvestsiteswerewithin10kmofthenearestroad,butcaribouwere7timesmorelikelytobeharvestedafewmetersfromaroadthanat10kmfromit.

Thethirdexampleoftheinteractionbetweenhuntingandresponsestoroadtrafficispreliminaryandawaitingamoredetailedanalysis.Anall-weatherroadtoconnectanopenpitminetothecommunityofBakerLakewasopenedtohuntingfromall-terrainvehiclesandsubsequentlythesatellite-collaredcaribouappeartobedeflectedfromtheroadby2015(Agnico-Eagle2015).

Wehavedescribedhowcaribourespondatdifferentdistancestodisturbanceandtheresponsesarevariableandthereasonsmaybecomplexandinteractingatdifferentscales.Fourissuesstandoutaswhereourknowledgeisinadequatefordescribingdirectimpacts.

(i)Avoidanceofroadsandtrafficismeasuredforsomeherdsbuttheunderlyingmechanismisuncertain,raisingquestionsabouthowtodesignmitigation.Thebehaviouralresponses(changesinmovements)totrafficdonotappeartobetheonlymechanismgiventhedistancesoverwhichavoidanceoccurs.Whilelearnedbehaviourincludingmemoryisalikelymechanism,therealsomaybehabitatchanges.Theavoidanceofopenpitmines(about15km)andtheirassociatedroadscoincidedwiththeextentofchangesinlichenchemicalcompositionconsistentwithfineparticledustdeposition(Rescan2011,Boulangeretal.,2012).

(ii)Theextenttowhichhuntinginteractswiththeresponsestoroadtrafficandincreasestheresponsivenessisuncertainwhichreducesthepredictabilityofcaribouresponsestooilandgasandappropriatemitigation

(iii)Whilebehaviouralobservationscanbeusedtomeasuretheresponsivenessofcaribou,theobservationsarenotintegratedwiththemovementratesanddirectionsofcariboufittedwithsatelliteorGPScollars.Integrativestudiescouldleadtoadaptivemonitoringsuchastheutilityofcreatingpredictablegapsintrafficforcariboutocrosstheroads.Integrativestudieswouldalsoaddressgapsindescribingresponsestodifferinglevelsofintensityforthedifferentdisturbanceactivitiessuchastrafficfrequencyorspacingofseismiclines

(iv)Welackstudieswithadequatesampledesigntodescribebarren-groundcariboubehaviouralresponsestothesequencesofseismiclines,drillingorextendedflowtestingwhichisessentialtobeablepredictresponsestoexploration.

3.1.2 IndirectimpactsHabitat:Indirectimpactsfromoilandgasexplorationanddevelopmenthavebeenmoststudiedinborealforests.TheindirectimpactsaresufficientthatfearsaboutdeclinesandoilandgasdevelopmenthavebeenrealizedforborealandmountaincaribouinAlbertaandnortheastBC,asseenintheirdecliningstatus(COSEWIC2014).Comparingtheamountofmodifiedborealforesttotherateofchangeinborealcaribouabundancehasledtothresholdsforhabitatlossandratesoflinearfeaturesonthelandscape.

Borealcaribouecologydiffersfrommigratorytundracaribouinthescaleofmigratorybehaviourandtheextentofgregarious(collective)behaviour,whichlikelyplaysaroleindeterminingimpactsofoilandgasdevelopment.Borealcaribougroupsizeistypically<50animals,withthesmallestgroupsizeduringcalvingandthelargestduringtherutandwinter(COSEWIC2014).Borealcaribouuserelativelysmallhomeranges:averagemovementwas37-53kmbetweenwinterandsummerrangeintheOntarioShieldEcozone(COSEWIC2014).Borealcaribouadapttheirbehaviouraldecisionsovertimeofdaytocompromisebetweenriskavoidance(predationordisturbance)andtheirforagerequirementstobalancetheirsurvival(Beauchesneetal.2013).

Theindirectimpactsthatreduceborealcaribouabundanceappeartobechangestopredationratesoncaribou,asseismiclines,roadsanddrillcampsremovetheoriginalhabitatandthen

thesubsequentplantsuccessionbenefitsmooseanddeerwhichinturnsupportswolfpredationastheroadsandseismiclinesalsofavourmovementsofwolves(COSEWIC2014).Avgaretal.(2015)analysedmovementsofGPScollaredcaribouevery5hoursanddescribedhowthecaribousensetheirvicinityandusetheirspatialmemory.Individualvariationwashighbut30%ofthecaribouavoidedbothwolvesandmoosehabitatbecausethegreaterriskofexposuretowolvesinthemoosehabitat.

Energycosts:Behaviouralresponsessuchasbeingalertandmovingawayfromperceivedriskreducetimespentforagingandcostthecaribouenergy,andiftheresponsesarefrequentenough,thecaribou’sbodyreservesarereduced.Foranursingcow,areductioninbodyreservestranslatesintosmallerfallgoingintowinterandareducedprobabilityofpregnancy.Thusthesearethelinksbetweenthebehaviouralresponsestoherdproductivityandchangesincaribouherdsize(summarizedinWhiteetal.2014).

Therelationshipbetweenforageintake,behaviouralresponsesandtheirenergycostledtoaquantitativeapproachtoestimatethecumulativecostsofthebehaviouralresponses(Russell1976).ThePorcupineCaribouTechnicalCommitteein1988laidthegroundworkwhentheyrequestedcomputersimulationmodels.Themodelswereto"aidinevaluatingpresentdata,helpguidefutureresearch,andprovidesomeinsightsintothepotentialimpactofalternatedevelopmentscenarios"(Kremsateretal.1989).Consequently,researchersdeterminedestimatingthechancesofacowbecomingpregnantrelativetothecow’sresponsestodisturbances(Hoveyetal.,1989;Kremsateretal.,1989;Whittenetal.,1989;Murphyetal.,2000,Russelletal.,1996,Whiteetal.,2014).

Initially,themodelsfocusedonoilfielddevelopmentontheAlaskanNorthSlope(Murphyetal.,2000)includingforthePorcupineherd(http://www.pcmb.ca/resources)butsubsequentlywasappliedtoprojectdirectimpactsofopenpitminingonmigratorytundracaribou(Russell2014a,bandc).Themodelusesmeasureabledifferencesinactivitypatternsduetodisturbancewithinabout500mfromthesourceofdisturbance.Thosedifferencesbasedonobservationsareareductioninforagingtimeof6%;anincreasewalkingandrunningby3%;andareductionoftheireatingintensityby3%duetovigilancebehaviour(i.e.,reducingthepercentoftheforagingperiodspentactuallyingestingfood).Thosereductionswhileseeminglysmallcanadduptoreducetheamountofweightthatcaribougain(White1983;Section5).

3.2 Potential Impact Summary Potentialimpactsaretheoutcomeoftheexposureofthecariboutoanindustrialdevelopmentandtheirsensitivitytoenvironmentalchanges.Ourreviewofpotentialimpactscoversthespatialgradientfromcariboustandingalertedbyaroadwatchingtruckstocaribouchangingtheirmovement’skilometresawayfromaroadordrillsite.Weidentifywhatisknownaboutthemechanismsthatexplainhowsmallchangesincariboubehaviourcanaccumulatetoreducetheirproductivity.Wedescribehowcaribouareintegratingtheirresponsestodisturbancewithchangesinhabitatcausedbyoilandgasexplorationandacascadeofchangesincluding

increasedpredation.Caribourespondtodisturbanceinasimilarwayastheydotopredatorsbyavoidanceandflightandselectinghabitattominimizetheirriskofexposuretorisk.Agapinourknowledgeaboutpotentialimpactsistheroleofmemoryandlearningwhichallowscariboutosaveenergybyrespondingless(habituationandtolerance).WereviewspecificallythepotentialimpactsbasedonstudiesonthePorcupineCaribouherd.Weidentifyfourissuesstandoutaswhereourknowledgeisinadequatefordescribingdirectimpacts.

• Avoidanceofroadsandtrafficismeasuredforsomeherdsbuttheunderlyingmechanismisuncertain,raisingquestionsabouthowtodesignmitigation.

• Theextenttowhichhuntinginteractswiththeresponsestoroadtrafficandincreasestheresponsivenessisuncertainwhichreducesthepredictabilityofcaribouresponsestooilandgasandappropriatemitigation.

• Whilebehaviouralobservationscanbeusedtomeasuretheresponsivenessofcaribou,theobservationsarenotintegratedwiththemovementratesanddirectionsofcariboufittedwithsatelliteorGPScollars.

• Welackstudieswithadequatesampledesigntodescribebarren-groundcariboubehaviouralresponsestothesequencesofseismiclines,drillingorextendedflowtestingwhichisessentialtobeablepredictresponsestoexploration.

4 Expected impacts, and mitigations relative to the Porcupine Caribou Herd's ecology

Webroadenedtheapproachbasedonvulnerabilityofecosystemstoclimatechange(Figure1)tothePCHandincludedenvironmentalchangeswithoilandgasdevelopmentinthecontextofcumulativeeffects(Figure4).The“sensitivity”ofcaribouisdeterminedfrompasttrendsinherdsizeandvitalrates,functionalresponsesbetweenbodyconditionandpregnancyrates,andclimatetrends.SensitivityofthePCHisfurtherassessedincomparisontoothermigratorytundraherds.“Exposure”focusesoncaribouseasonaldistributionandhowtheyinteract(throughencounterrates)withproject-specific(e.g.NorthernCross)andcumulativedevelopment.Sensitivityandexposureareabasistodeterminepotentialimpactsoncaribou.Ideallythisassessmentwillbequantitative(preferablyattheherdlevel)ratherthanqualitative.Potentialimpactscanbeamelioratedbybuilt-inadaptivecapacitywithinthesystem.Thushabitatandharvestmanagementcanoffsetimpactswhileadequateproject-specificmitigationcanreduceimpactsoftheprojectontheproductivityofthecaribouherd.Further,bydevelopingamonitoringprogramtoassesstheeffectivenessofthemitigationprogram,wecanimplementanadaptivemanagementapproach,toimprovemitigation.Attheendoftheprocessthe“vulnerability”oftheherdcanbeassessed.ThusthissectiononthePorcupineherdisbasedontheIPCCassessmentapproach(Figure1)withhowtopicshighlightedinredboxes(Figure4)linktotheprimarycomponents.

Figure4Topicsdiscussedinthisreport(inred)linkedassessmentcomponents.

5 Sensitivity 5.1 What is Sensitivity? Sensitivityisthedegreetowhichcaribouareaffected,eitheradverselyorbeneficially,bychangesintheirenvironment.ForexampledailywarmthespeciallyinJuneaffectstheamountofplantgrowth,whichinturnaffectsthecaribouproductivity,andimpactinghowtheyrespondasindividualsandherdstoindustrialdevelopment.AcumulativeeffectsanalysisfortheBathurstherd(Figure5)showshowthelossofcaribouishighestwhenplantgrowthislow.

Figure5RelativedeclineintheBathurstcaribouherdunder3scenariosofearlysummerplantgrowth(Russell,unpub).

Migratorytundracaribouevolvedstrategiestoenablethemtobufferenvironmentalchangetosurvive.Fromanevolutionarypointofview,thosestrategiesoffercluestoenergeticbottlenecks,largelyreflectingseasonalenvironmentalconditionsthatarebothadverseandunpredictable.Agoodexampleisfallbackfat.Cariboustorefatreservestooffsetperiodsofnegativeenergybalance.Thusherdsthattypicallyputonlargebackfatreservesinthefalleitherhaveoneormorecombinationsofadversewinterconditions:1)deepunpredictablewintersnow;2)homogeneouslandscapeswithfewoptionstodistributeawayfromadversesnowconditions;or3)typicallypoororunpredictablefoodresources.Amongherdswithcomparabledata,thePCHdepositstheleastbackfatbyfall(Figure6)

Figure6FallbackfatforNorthAmericanarcticcaribouherds.(Boo-E-BoothiaEast,STH–Southampton,BluBluenoseEast,Bath–Bathurst,QAM–Qamanirjuaq,BEV-Beverly,GRH–GeorgeRiverHerd,PCH-PorcupineCaribou;)

Lowbackfatdepositshavebothpositiveandnegativeimplicationswithrespecttopotentialimpactsofoilandgasdevelopment.Ontheonehand,wehavesomeconfidencethatfall,winterandspringconditionsforthePCHaregoodcomparedtootherherds.Howeverhavingevolvedtonotphysiologicallyprepareforadverseconditionsduringtheseseasons,individualsmayhavelowertolerancefor“newadverseconditions”suchasdisturbanceanddisplacementfromoilandgasdevelopment.

5.2 Trends in herd productivity ThePCHpopulationtrendhasbeenestimatedfromphotographingpost-calvingaggregationssince1972whentheherdwasestimatedat100,000animals.Theherdthenincreasedat4%peryearuntilreachingapeakin1989(178,000).From1990-2001theherddeclinedatabout3.5%peryearestimatedat123,000in2001.Theherdwasnotcountedagainuntil2010when169,000wereestimated.Thelastsurveyin2015was197,000,thehighestrecordedfromthisherdinfivedecades.However,reportsfromharvestersthroughtheArcticBorderlandsEcologicalKnowledgeCo-op(RussellandSvoboda,inprep.)mayhintthattheherdisatitspeakascaribou“size”isdeclining,whichisknowntoprecedeapeakinherdabundance.

Estimatingcalvinglocation,parturitionrateandearlycalfsurvivalisbasedonasampleofcollaredfemales.Onaverage81%ofthePCHcowsgivebirthannuallyandonaverage72%ofthecalvessurvivethefirstmonth.ThereisastrongrelationshipbetweenearlycalfsurvivalandforageasindexedbythegrowingdegreedaysJune20onthecalvinggrounds(Russell,

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Coats Boo-E STH Blu Bath Qam Bev GRH PCH

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unpublished).Byspring,compositioncountsindicatethatapproximately35calvesper100cowsarepresentattheonsetofspringmigration.Duringthedeclineoftheherdadultcowmortalitywasestimatedatabout16-18%annuallycomparedtolessthan10%duringtheincreasephase.AdultcowmortalityisthemostimportantdeterminantofPCHherdproductivity.

5.3 Trends relative to other North American Herds HerdsacrossNorthAmericaaredecliningfollowingalmostuniversalincreasesinthe1970sand1980s.ThePorcupineherdwasoneoftheearliestherdstoreachitspeakin1989andthenbegantodecline.GenerallyherdsintheNWTandNunavutbegantodeclineinthemid1990sandarecurrentlystilldecliningorarestableatverylownumbers.HoweverthePCHwastheonlyherdthatbegananotherincreasephaseinthe2000s,andallotherherdscontinuetodeclineorremainatverylownumbers.FurtherFigure7showsthatevenindeclinethePCHdroppedonly35%frompeaknumberscomparedtoashighas98%inherdseastoftheMackenzieRiver.

Figure7PercentdeclineduringmostrecentdeclinesinNorthAmericanherds.Barcolourrepresentcurrentstatusoftheherd(greenincreasing;yellowdecliningorstable).

FromourresearchaninterestingdifferencebetweenthePCHandherdstotheeastisthefunctionalresponsebetweenprobabilityofgettingpregnantandrelativebodyweight(Russell

etalinpress).Inthefall,thebodyconditionofthecowindicatestheprobabilityofgettingpregnant.Figure8givesusaclueastowhythePCHmaybealessproductivebutamorestableherdcomparedtoherdseastoftheMackenzieRiver.ThefigurewasgeneratedbytheCircumArcticRangiferMonitoringandAssessment(CARMA)Networkbodyconditiondatabaseandeachcurvewassignificant(p<0.01).Weinterpretthecurvestoindicatehowresilienttheherdistochange(steepnessofthecurve)andhowpotentiallyproductivetheherdcouldbe.Thelowertherelativebodyweighttoreach0.5probabilityofgettingpregnant,themoreproductiveistheherd.ThusforthePCHwewouldconcludethattheyareveryresilient(shallowcurve)andnotproductive(secondhighestrelativebodyweightrequired(0.74)toreach0.5probabilityofgettingpregnant).

Figure8TheprobabilityofpregnancyversusrelativeBodyWeightforNorthAmericanherds.Blackdashedlinedelineates0.5probabilityofgettingpregnant.

5.4 Climate within PCH range relative to other North American Herds IncomparisontomigratorytundraherdsacrossNorthAmerica(Figure9),thePCHexperienceswarmearlyspringconditions(highJune10growingdegreedays);coolmoistsummers,

resultinginlowdroughtconditions;andrelativelydeepsnowaccumulationsinwinter.Springsnowmeltisaverage.Fromtheseconditions,wewouldexpectearlygreen-upwherecalvingcowshaveaccesstonitrogen-richforagewhendemandsformilkproductionishigh.ThecoolermoistJulyconditionsindicatethatplantphenologicalchangeswouldbeslowandplantsenescencedelayed,againmakinghigherdigestibleforageextendlaterintheseason.ComparedtothemigratorytundraherdsontheCanadianShieldwheretopographyisrelativelyhomogeneous,thePCH’ssummerandwinterrangesaretopographicallydiversewithmuchyoungergeologicalformations.Thusduringwinter,althoughsnowdepthsareonaveragehigherthaneasternherds,thedissectedterrainmeansthatregionsandlandscapefeature(e.g.ridges)withlowersnowaccumulationsareavailablewhendeep-snowwintersoccur.

Figure9AverageclimateconditionsforNorthAmericanHerds.(CAH-CentralArctic;PCH-PorcupineCaribou;CBH-CapeBathurst;BNW-BluenoseWest;BNE-BluenoseEast;BAT-Bathurst;AHI-Ahiak;BEV-Beverly;QAM–Qamanirjuaq(source:CARMAClimatedatabase–seeRusselletal.,2013).

5.5 Sensitivity Summary Theincrease,declineandincreaseofabundanceforthePorcupineherdrecordedsincetheearly1970sischaracterizedbyrelativelylowratechanges(-4%to+4%).Theherdtrendappearstostronglycorrelatetoadultcowmortality,aspregnancyrateremainedrelativelystablethroughoutthepopulationcycles.Atthephysiologicallevel,thePCHaccumulatesthelowestfallbackfatamongherdswithcomparabledata.Oneinterpretationistheherdhasevolvedwitharelativelyfavourablewinterenvironmenteitherbecauseof:1)availabilityoffavourablesnowconditionseitherfromlowersnowfallsoradiversetopographysocariboucanspaceawayfromadversesnow:or2)anoverallpredictablewinterenvironment.Theprobabilitythatacowwillgetpregnantfollowsasigmoidalrelationshipwithfallbodyweight.Boththesteepnessofthecurveandtherelativeweightthatisassociatedwitha50%chanceofgettingpregnanthasbeensuggestedtorelatetothevulnerability(thesteeperthemorevulnerable)andtheproductivity(thelowertherelativeweightthemoreproductive).Amongherdwithcomparabledata,thePCHisoneoftheleastproductivebutisalsotheleastvulnerable,suggestingthatitwillneverincreaseordeclinedramaticallyandnever“erupt”tohighpopulationdensities.Acautionhoweveristhatastheherddeclines,thelikelihoodorrateofanyrecoverymaybecompromisedifclimateoranthropogenicchangesbecomesignificantintheirenvironment.

IncomparisontomigratorytundraherdsacrossNorthAmerica,thePCHexperienceswarmearlyspringconditions(highJune10growingdegreedays)andcoolmoistsummers,resultinginlowdroughtconditionsandrelativelydeepsnowaccumulationsinwinter.Thissuggestsaprolongedplantphenologyprofile,higherqualitysummerforage,andlowermosquitoandoestridflyharassmentindices.Wintersnowdepthsarerelativelyhighcomparedtootherherdsbutthediverseterrainallowstheherdtoseekshallowersnowareaduringbadwinters.

Thuswithrespecttotheadversepotentialimpactsofhumanactivity,wespeculatethatthePorcupineHerdhasevolvedinafavourableenvironmentresultedinlargercalvesbutlowwinterreserves.Thuswithlowinherentproductivity,theintroductionofsignificantindustrialactivitycould,withoutdramaticallyaffectingpregnancyrateorcowmortality,preventthePorcupineherdfromrecoveringduringadeclinephaseorsignificantlyreducetherateofincreaseduringpopulationexpansion.Furtherdocumentedclimatetrendsmayreducethepredictabilityoffavourableenvironmentalconditions.

6 Exposure 6.1 What is Exposure? Itisimportanttoquantifyexposuretochangesinacaribouherd’senvironment,whethernaturalorman-madechanges.Thiscanbeaclimatetrend,aroadoratouristlodgeandultimatelythecumulativechangesthroughouttherangeoftheherd,whethersocio-economicorenvironmental.MigratorytundracaribouexposuretooilandgasexplorationoccurswheresedimentarybasinswithpotentialorprovenoilandgasreservesunderlietheannualrangesoftheherdswestofGreatBearLake(CapeBathurst,BluenoseWestandEast;Porcupine,Western

Arctic,TeshekpukandCentralArcticherds).OnlythePrudhoeBayoilfieldisdeveloped(APPENDIXA).Baselineinformationaboutresponsestooilandgasdevelopmentwascompiledforproposedpipelinesintheearly1970sandagaininthe2000salongtheMackenzieRivercorridor(JointReviewPanelReportofEnvironmentalReview2010).TheMackenzieValleyistheeasternandwesternedgeoftheannualrangesofthePorcupineandBluenoseWestandEastherds.AlthoughoilandgasexplorationoccurredonthewinterrangesoftheBluenoseWestherdintheearly2000s(INAC2016),studieswerenotundertaken.

Alaskacoastalcaribourangesarewithinlandsdesignatedforoilandgasleasesbutnotyetexploredordevelopedfields(NationalPetroleumReserve-Alaska).TheexceptionistheCentralArcticherd,whichcalvespartiallywithinintensivelydevelopedoilfields(NRC2003).ThePorcupineherdcalvesandsummersonlandsofasyetundeterminedtenure(oilandgasdevelopmentorwilderness).ThenortheastcornerofAlaskawassetasideasANWRin1960asawildernessarea,exceptforthecoastalplain.In1980,CongressinSection1002directedthe“coastalplain”(hencethe1002area)bestudiedastowhetheritshouldbedesignatedaswildernessoropenedforoilandgasleases(Cornetal.,2006,BLM2012).

Attheindividualherdandcariboulevel,wecanmeasureexposurethroughseasonalanddailymovementpatternsbasedontheuseofsatelliteandGPScollars.Thisallowsustomeasureseasonalexposureandhowlongcaribouspendinthevicinityofaproject.Inthissection,wewillfirstexaminetheexposuretothePCHfromtheproposedwelldrillingprogramofNorthernCrossYukon(NCY).WereviewedNCYenvironmentalimpactanalysisandsoonrealizedtheanalysiswastoosuperficialtoallowustoadequatelyassesspotentialexposureofthePCHtotheNCYproposeddevelopment.Thusweconductspecificanalysisthatallowustobetterunderstandandquantifypotentialimpactsandtoprovideinformationneededtomakedecisionswithrespecttomitigationandmonitoring.Next,welookedatclimatetrendsforthisregionofEaglePlainsanddiscusspossibleimplicationoffutureexposuretotheNCYprojectarea.Finally,weoutlineapossiblecumulativeeffectsassessmentapproachtointegrateexposuretomovementpatterns,energyproteindynamicsandtopopulationproductivity.

6.2 Northern Cross (Yukon) Ltd. proposed project TheNorthernCrossproposedprogramiswithinthefall,winterandspringrangesofthePCH.TheprojectdescriptionsadequatelyaddresslikelyinteractionsbetweentheNCYprojectandthePCH,althoughthestateofthecurrentdataanalysisdoesnotallowustoquantifyimpacts.Toprovidemoreinformationthanwasavailableintheproposal,informationrequestsandpubliccomments,weusedGPSandsatellitecollardatafromApril1985toJanuary2016todevelopneededexposurerelatedindicators.Ourgoalwastocreatedatasetsthatcould,inthefuture,quantifythePCHexposuretotheNCYprojectandthatcouldbeusedtotranslatetopopulationlevelimpacts.WetookasimilarapproachonBaffinIsland(Russell2014a)andwithintherangeoftheQamanirjuaqherd(Russell2014b)andarefurtherdevelopingtheapproachfortheBathurstCaribouHerd(Russelletal.,2015).ForadetailedtreatmentofourcumulativeeffectsassessmentapproachseeSectionon“CumulativeEffects”.

6.3 Path analysis

6.3.1 CariboudistributionThenumberofsatellitecollarsavailablevariedamongyears(Figure10),peakingat45in2015.Althoughdatafor2010exists,forsomereason,theyaremissinginourdatabase.Theabsenceofcollarsin1996isbecausetherewerenocollars.Itisimportanttonotethatearliersatellitecollarstendedtodocumentcoursescalemovements(providinglocationdatamoreonaweeklyscalethanadailyscale),thusinterpolatingadailylocationismuchlessexactthanthatavailablewithcurrentGPScollars.

Figure10:MaximumnumberofcollarsmonitoredbetweenApril1985andJanuary2016.

Wecreateda30-kmbufferaroundtheproposedNCYwellsitesandaccessroads.Thirtykilometreswaschosenasmostintervenersandthecompanyfeltthatthefirstearlywarningindicatorofcaribougettingclosertothedevelopmentsitewasifacollaredcaribouwaslocatedwithin30km.Figuresbelowillustrateallcollaredcariboupaths(shortestlinebetweentwoconsecutivelocations)fromApril1985toJan2016inthewholerange(Figure11)andwithinthe30-kmbuffer(Figure12).Inall59,157pathsweredrawnandofthoseonly1.3%(774)werewithinorintersectedthe30-kmbufferzone.TheNCYbufferzoneisinthesoutheastcornerofthePCHannualrange.Morethan500ofthosepathswererecordedinthefallandwinterof2015-2016.Figure12doesillustratethatpathsarenotrandomlyoccurringinthebufferzonewiththevastmajorityofpathsnorthandwestoftheDempsterHighway.Thedenselinearpathconcentrationjustnorthofthehighwaywasfromthewinterof2015-16.Pathsoutsideofthebufferzonearevisibleasverylightcolouredlines.

Figure11MovementpathsofthePCHfrom1985-2016.Purplezoneis30-kmbufferaroundNCYproposedinfrastructure.Brownpathsintersectedorfellentirelywithinthe30-kmbuffer.

Figure12Movementpathsthatintersecteda30-kmbufferaroundNCYproposedprojectinfrastructure1985-2016

6.3.2 Timinganddegreeofuseofthe30-kmbufferzoneTocalculatethemonthlypercent“use”ofthe30-kmbufferzone,wedividedthenumberofpathsthatintersectedorfellwithinthebufferzonebythetotalnumberofpathsforagiven

monthandyeartoovercometheannualdifferencesinnumberofcollarsavailableandfrequencyofrelocationfixes(Figure13).CaribouaremostfrequentlyfoundinthebufferzoneinOctoberandleastinMay.TheaveragepercentuseshowsasimilarpatternalthoughDecemberhadthehighestpercentuse.However,theveryhighuse(48%)occurredinthewinterof1990-91butthatwaswhentherewerefewcollarsbeingmonitored.Inrecentyears,thehighestcollaruseofthebufferzonewasthewinterof2015-16inthat18%ofallOctobermovementsoccurredinthebufferzone,whichwouldrepresentmorethan36,000animals.

Cautionshouldbeusedininterpretingtheresults,especiallyforyearswhenthetotalnumberofcollars(Figure10)wassolowthatwecannotconfidentlyconcludethecollarsadequatelyrepresentedtheherd.Agoodexampleisthehighpercentuseofthebufferzoneinthewinterof1990-91(Figure13).ThemaximumnumberofcollarsmonitoredfromOctober1990toMarch1991wassevencollars.Coincidentallytheseniorauthorcaptured60caribouinthespringof1991usingEaglePlainsasabaseandnotedmanycaribouintheEaglePlainsarea.Thisdoesmakethepointthatotherknowledgesuchasharvestingandlocalknowledgeofcariboudistributioncanbeusedtobuildapictureofannualexposureofcaribou.

Figure13Percentoftotalpathsthatintersecta30-kmbufferaroundproposedNCYinfrastructuresinfall,winterandspring.

Figure14summarizestheuseofthe30-kmbufferzonewithrespecttothepercentofyearscollaredcaribouarefoundinthezone(Figure14A)andtheaveragemonthlypercentuseofthezone(Figure14B)definedasthepercentoftotalpathsthatintersectedorwerewithinthe30-

kmbufferzone.Withcollarsamplesizeinmind,Figure14showsofpatternofdecreasingusefromOctoberthroughwinterandleastwithuseinspring.TherewerenocollarsrecordedinthebufferinJune,JulyandAugustandonlytwocollarswereeverrecordedforMay.

Figure14Caribouuseofthe30-kmbufferzone:A)percentofyearscariboupresent;andB)averagepercentofherdusingthe30-kmbufferzone.

Itisimportanttodistinguishbetweenthetimingofcariboumovementsthroughthebufferzoneandthelikelytimingofoilandgasactivities.Dependingonsnowaccumulation,winteroperationsarenotlikelytobeginuntilNovember,missingtheOctobermovementoftheherd.ThusfromFigure14Ainsteadof44%oftheyearswithacollaredcaribou(October)thelikelihoodthatacollaredcaribouwouldbeintheareaiscloserto28%oftheyears(November).OilandGasactivityinlatewinterandspringwouldlikelyhavecollarsinabout15%oftheyearsrepresentingabout1%ofthemonthlymovementpaths(Figure14).ButnotethatbiologistshaveseenashifttowardsalatermigrationtowardswinterrangeinrecentyearsandevenmajorreversalsinmovementdirectionthathaveresultedinalotofcariboustillmovinginNovember(M.Suitorpers.comm.).Ifthistrendcontinuesthanwewouldexpectmuchmoreinteractionbetweenfallmigrationandoilandgasactivities.

6.3.3 MovementratesandResidencytimeThemovementratesofcaribouandhowlongtheyspendinthe30-kmbuffer(residency)areimportantformitigationandmonitoringprotocols.Tothisendwecalculatedtheaveragemonthlymovementrateforcollarsinthe30-kmbuffer(Figure15).RatesdeclinedfromSeptembertoMarchandincreasedinAprilasspringmigrationbegan.ThehighrateforMaywaswithtwoanimals,perhapsdelayedinleavingwinterareasandinahurrytoreachthecalvinggrounds.

Figure15Monthlyaveragemovementwithin30-kmbufferzone(1985-2015).

AGIS-basedpath-lineapproachwasdevelopedtoestimatethetimespentbycollaredfemalecaribouinthe30-kmbufferfromNCYproposedinfrastructure.Path-lines(definedasastraightlineconnectingtwotelemetrypointlocations)weregeneratedfromtelemetrypointlocationsandoverlaidonthe30-kmbufferzonetodeterminethespatialrelationshipofthebufferboundariesbetweenthetwolocations.Path-lineswereattributedwithdurationoftime(bothwithinandoutsidethebuffer)usingtheproportionoflinelengthincombinationwithre-locationinterval.Forexample,Figure16displaystwopath-lineswithinahypotheticalbuffer:onepath-lineentirelywithinthebufferedzone;andonepath-linethatwassplitwhenintersectedwiththebufferboundaries.Althoughtheyhavesimilarlinelengthswithinthebuffer(8.9kmvs.8.8km),theyrepresenttwoverydifferentdurationswithinthebuffer(24hoursvs.7.8hours,respectively),resultinginamoreaccurateresidencyestimatecomparedwithusingsimplelinelengths;i.e.,accountingfordurationincreasestheinfluenceoflinesthatwerealwaysfullycontainedwithintheassessmentareabecausetheyrepresentafulldayofoccupancy.

Figure16Examplecalculationof“path-lines”inahypotheticalbufferzone.

Allpathlinedurations(hours)withinthebufferzoneweresummedanddividedbythetotaldurationofallpathlines(withinandoutsideofthebuffer)toestimateresidencytimeasaproportionoftotalcollardutycycletime(timebetweentwoconsecutivelocations;Figure17).CaribouduringMarchspentonaveragemorethan16daysinthebuffer;duringfallmigration,residencytimeincreasedfromSeptembertoDecember(Figure17).AgainthetwoindividualsinMayspenttheleasttimeinthebufferzone.

Figure17Averageresidencytimepercollaredanimalintersectinga30-kmbufferzonearoundproposedNCYinfrastructure.

ExampleZOI

8.9km 24hours

8.8km 7.8hours

6.4 Climate trends in the 30-km buffer zone UsingthesameCARMAMERRAclimatedatabasediscussedunderSensitivitysection,weextractedclimatedatafromonlythosecellsthatfellwithinoroverlappedthe30-kmbufferzone.Ourintentionwastolookatsnowconditionsandsummerfireweatherindex(ourDroughtIndex)toseeifanytrendsemerged.CariboutendtousetheEaglePlainsareainwinterswithshallowersnowbecausetheregiontypicallyhashighersnowthantheRichardsonMountainsortheOgilviebasin(Russelletal1993)buthashigherlichenbiomass(innon-burnedareas).Figure18showsthatinthe30-kmbufferthereisasignificantnegativetrendinMarch31snowdepth,indicatingthatifthetrendcontinuesexposuretotheareamayincreaseinwinteraslowersnowdepthsmakeforagingintheregionmoreattractive.Observationsofcaribouevenfeedinginburnareas(M.Suitor,pers.comm.),especiallynearmoistcreekbottomswhereburnswerepatchy,stillcontainingsufficientlichenbiomassforcaribou.Usingthethree-yearrunningaverageeliminatestheannualvariabilityandallowsustobetterobservetrends.Snowdepthincreasedfrom1981peakingin1991andgenerallydeclinedto2008.Inthelastsevenyears,weseeanotherincreasingtrend.

Figure18March31snowdepthina30-kmNCYbufferarea(three-yearrunningaverage).

OurJulydroughtindex(equivalenttofireweatherindex)showtheoppositetrend(Figure19),withincreasingdroughtconditionsinterruptedbythreeyearsoflowdroughtconditionsintheearly2000s.AsourdroughtindexiscorrelatedtothenumberoffiresincentralYukon(Russell,unpublished),wecanexpectmorefrequentfiresintheregions(seealsoGustineetal2014).Thestudyareahasalreadyhadabout1/3burntforestsincethe1990,1991and2005fires(NCYEnvironmentalConditions2014).Thuswecanspeculatefromthesnowanddroughtconditionsthatononehandcaribouwillhavemorewinteraccesstothearea,butdriersummersmayreducelichenabundanceastheprobabilityofforestfiresincreases.

Figure19JulydroughtindexinaNCY30-kmbufferzone(three-yearrunningaverage)

6.5 Predicting fall migration patterns from weather Clearly,itisadvantageousforseasonalplanningofoilandgasactivitiestobeabletoknowwhattheprobabilityisofasignificantnumberofcaribouenteringthedevelopmentzonewithintheseasonalwindowofoperations.ForthePorcupineherdtherehavebeenthreeresearchprojectsthatattemptedtolinkclimatetoPorcupineCariboudistributionandmovements.

Eastland(1991)notesthatPCHautumnmigrationdoesnotfollowdistinctroutes,butratherare“partofacontinuouscorridorthatconnectssummerandwintercomponentsoftherange.”HereferstoSeptembermovementsas“aformofmigratoryrestlessness,”andOctobermovementssuggestingthatcaribouwerecoordinated,anddirectional.Weatherwasamongthedrivingfactorsthatinfluencedautumnmovementsandselectionofwinteringrange.Eastland(1991)suggestedthatspringmigrationisdrivenbytheonsetofcalving,but“braked”bysnowconditionsthatinfluencetravelingandforaging.

McNeiletal.,(2005)showed,usingsatellitecollardata,thatclimatevariationcanpartlyexplainseasonalvariationincariboudistribution.Theiranalysisrelatedaverageseasonaldistributionpatternsbetweensetsofyearstodifferentweather-relatedenvironmentalconditions,e.g.,shallowvs.deepwintersnow,orearlyvs.latespringsnowmelt.Foreachseason,McNeiletal.,(2005)identifiedonekeyenvironmentalfactorinfluencingcariboudistribution,informedbylocalknowledgeandexpertscientificopinion.Theyusedavailableclimatedatarelevanttothatseasonalfactor'sannualstatetodividetheyearsintotwoclassesbasedonrankingoftheyears.Forexample,theydefinedearlyorlatesnowmeltasthekeydriverforspringmigration,indicatedbywhetherornotthesnowpackmeasuredonMay1atOldCrowhaddeclinedbyatleast30cmfromthatmeasuredonMarch1.Forfallmigration,theydeterminedthatthekeydriverforthatseasonwaswhethersnowfallwasearlyorlate,basedonwhetherSeptembersnowfallatOldCrowwasgreaterorlessthan4.5cm(McNeiletal.’2005).

Nicolsonetal.,(2013)builtontheearlierwork(Eastland1991,McNeiletal2005)tofurtheraddressthespatialandtemporalsequencesofmovement.McNeiletal.,(2005)didnotaccountforthepossibilitythatcariboupresenceinazoneoneseasoncouldbeinfluencedbythedistributionofanimalsinthepreviousseason.Nicolsonetal.(2013)modelledtheprobabilityofanimalsmovingbetweenconsecutiveseasonsintoadjacentzonesandhowclimatedrovethemovements.Themodelmostconsistentlypredictedthedistributionofanimalsaccuratelyduringcalving,whencaribouarehighlyconcentrated,andleastconsistentlypredictedcorrectlocationsduringspringmigration,whencaribouaremovingrapidlyandarehighlydispersed.Duringtherutandlatefall(Oct8-Nov30),earlysnowfallincreasedtheprobabilitythatcaribouthathadbeeninthePorcupineBasininAugustandSeptemberwouldmovetoanotherzone,i.e.,itreducedtheprobabilitythattheywouldremaininthePorcupineBasin.Duringwinter,deepsnowincreasedtheprobabilitythatanimalslocatedintheRichardsonMountainswouldstayinthatzone.

BothMcNeiletal(2005)andNicolsonetal(2013)wererelyingon1985-2003collardata(collectively68collaryears)andbothattemptedtoaccountforallseasonalmovementsanddistributionovertheentirerangeofthePCH.Althoughbeyondthescopeofthiscontract,wewouldrecommendthatamorefocusedanalysisbeconductedintheEaglePlainsareaforfall,winterandspringseasons.Theresearchconductedsofarisacrediblemethodologyandapproach.Currentlywehaveapproximatelyfivetimesthatmanycollar-yearsavailable(~342).Further,bothpreviousstudiesreliedonweatherstationdataoftenfarfromcariboudistribution.UsingCARMA’sspatialclimatedatabase(Russelletal.,2013)wenowhaveavailabledailyweatherdatafrom1979-2015atamuchfinerscale(MERRAgridsizeis½degreelatitudeby2/3degreelongitude)andwithmanymorecaribou-relevantclimateindicators.

6.6 Modelling Cumulative effects CumulativeeffectswerehighlightedintwoofthesixissuesYESABidentifiedasneedingmoreinformationtomakeadecision.Inourexperience,relianceonasingleproponentofadevelopmenttoundertakeacumulativeeffectsanalysisisunrealisticandacollaborativeapproachbetweenstakeholdersismoreeffective.Consequently,cumulativeeffectsanalysisseldomprecedesorisinadaquatelyintegratedintoanenvironmentalassessment.Yetoneofthemostfrequentconcernsaboutthefutureofmigratorytundracaribouistheimpactsofthecumulativeeffectsofchangingclimateandland-useactivitiesacrossherd’sranges.Gunnetal.,(2011)andJohnson&St.-Laurent(2011)commentedonthelackofamethodologicalframeworkasreasonforslowprogressoncumulativeeffects.Theysuggestedacollaborativeapproachusingaframeworkbasedonthescalingfromindividualtopopulation,therelativefrequency,andmagnitudesofeffectsandtheirregulation.

Weknowquiteabitaboutindividualcaribouresponsestohumanactivities–interruptionstoforaginganddisplacementofindividualsatvariousdistancesfromthedisturbance(Aastrup,2000;Cameronetal.,2005;Boulangeretal.,2012).Toscaleuptheindividual’sbehaviouralre-sponsestothepopulationrequiresbeingabletoestimatethecoststotheindividualand

whetherthosecostswillaffectitsreproductionandsurvival.Estimatingthecostsofabehaviouralresponseisnotstraightforward;aswellastheenergycostsofmovementandinterruptioninforagingtime,theremayalsobeaneffectondiet(energy/proteinintake)ifadisplacementputstheindividualinadifferenthabitat.Understandingandintegratingthoserelationshipsbetweenbehaviour,habitatselection,energyandproteinintakerelativetoreproductionandsurvivalisdataintensiveandinterdisciplinaryastheunderstandingisbasedonecology,nutritionalecologyandmodelling.

TheCARMAnetwork(Russelletal.,2013)hasdevelopedanapproachandassociatedtoolsforcumulativeeffectsassessment(Gunnetal.,2013,2014).TheCaribouCumulativeEffects(CCE)modelframeworkhasthreelinkedsub-modelsthat,together,allowcariboumanagerstoundertake“what-if”analysesofthecumulativeeffectsofdevelopment,climatechangeandotherstressorsoncariboubiology.Thesub-modelsintheCCEmodelare:1)amodeltrackingmovementpatternsofacaribouherdwithrespecttopastpresentandfuturedevelopment;2)amodelforthechangeinanindividualcaribou’sbodyconditionovertime;and3)amodelofthecaribouherd’spopulationdynamicsFigure20).Themovementmodeltrackshistoriccariboumigrationpatternsacrosstheherd’srange,andthesubsequentconsequencesofthisdailymovementpatternoncariboubehaviourandavailableforage;themovementmodelalsotrackschangesinexposuretoharvestrisk.Thebodyconditionmodeltakesoutputfromthemovementmodel,combinedwithfutureprojectionsofvegetationchange,topredictchangesinbodyconditionofanindividualcaribouovertime.Theoutputofthebodyconditionmodelisthenusedtopredictchangesincariboufecundityandsurvivalwhich,alongwiththeharvestriskprojectionsofthemovementmodel,arefedintoapopulationmodeltoprojectthefuturesizeandcompositionofthecaribouherd.

Figure20SchematicoftheCaribouCumulativeEffects(CCE)modelshowingsub-modelcomponentsinredandvarioussub-modelinputs/outputsinblue.

Theinitialinputs(1)fortheCCEaresatelliteorGPScollarmovementdata,spatiallayersforvegetation,climateandthestartingdevelopmentfootprint,andscenariodetailsaboutfuturedevelopmentratesandtheextentoftheirimpactsorzoneofinfluence(ZOI).Theseinputsthenfeedinto(2)thecariboumovementsub-model,whichproducesoutputonthedailyenvironmentandharvestriskexperiencedbyanindividualcaribou.Outputfromthemovementsub-modelfeedsinto(3)estimatesofactivitybudgets,foragebiomassandclimateindicatorswhichareinputsfortheindividualcariboubodyconditionsub-model;theoutputsofthebodyconditionsub-modelarethebodyconditionofacowandhercalfwhichcanbeinterpretedintermsoffecundityandsurvivalrates.Thesedemographicparameters,togetherwiththeharvestriskexposurefromthemovementsub-model,areinputsto(4)thepopulationsub-model,whichproducesestimatesandconfidenceintervalsforage/sexstructuredpopulationprojections.

Wehaveappliedthesemodelsonanumberofmigratorytundraherds,initiallylookingatclimateimpactsbutalsoinrelationtoindustrialdevelopment(Murphyetal.,2000;Russell2012,2014a,2014b;Russelletal.2015).Furtheroverthelastdecade,thePCMBhastakenaleadroleindevelopingthecapabilitytoundertakeafullcumulativeeffectsassessmentofthe

PCH.AlthoughrelyingheavilyontheCCEmodeldescribedabovetoaddressenergeticimpactofdisturbance,thePCMBhasinitiateddiscussionsonensuringthatthefullrangeofcumulativeeffectimpactsontheherdarerecognized(e.g.displacementandchangesinmigratoryroutes).

6.7 Exposure Summary ThecurrentandpotentialfutureexposureofthePCHtoproposedNCYinfrastructurewasassessedusingapathanalysisofcollarsfromApril1985-January2016.Weuseda30-kmbufferzonetodetermineuse,movementratesandresidencytime.Thenumberofsatellitecollarsavailablevariedconsiderablyamongyears,peakingat45in2015.Caribouthatinteractwiththe30-kmbufferinfallfollowamigrationroutesouthalongthewestsideoftheRichardsonMountains,turningsouthwestjustnorthofEagleRiver.VisualexaminationoffallmovementpathssuggeststheDempsterHighwaymaybeactingasabarriermovementtowinterrangessouthofthehighwayinthemidPeelRiver,HungryLakesarea.Itispossiblehoweverthatthismovementpatternmayreflecthabitatdifferencessocautionshouldbetakenuntilfurtheranalysisiscomplete.TheconsequenceofthesemovementpathswithrespecttoNorthernCrossisthesignificantlyhigheruseoftheChanceCreekareaandlesseruseofproposedwellsitesandroadssoutheastoftheDempsterHighway.

CariboufirstarriveinSeptemberandareessentiallygonebyMay(onlytwopathsrecordedinMay).ThereisaprogressivedeclineinpercentusefromOctober(44%)toApril(15%)basedonthepercentofyearsthatcaribouinterceptthebufferzone.Basedonthemonthlyaverage,percentofpathsOctober(4.1%)andDecember(4.5%)hadthehighestusebetween1985and2016.However,bothmonthswereinfluencedbyasingleyear(1990forDecember;2015forOctober).

MovementratesinthebufferzonedeclinedfromSeptember(14.5kmperday)toMarch(2.0km/day)increasinginApril(6.4km/day)asspringmigrationbegins.Withrespecttoresidencytime,caribouduringMarchspentonaverage16.8daysinthebuffer,duringfallmigrationresidencytimeincreasedfromSeptember(4.2days)toDecember(14.3days).

Usingclimatedatadownloadedfromthe30-kmbufferzonewenoteadecliningtrendinsnowdepthandanincreasingtrendinJulydrought.FrompreviousanalysislowersnowmeanshigherprobabilityofuseinEaglePlainsbuthigherdroughtmeanshigherprobabilityoffire,lesslichensandpotentiallyloweruse.

ThereisaneedtointegratethecumulativeeffectsofexistingandpotentialfuturechangeswithintherangeofthePCH.Wepresentanexistingmodelstructurethathasbeenappliedtoothermigratorytundraherds.

7 Adaptive capacity 7.1 What is adaptive capacity? Adaptivecapacityiswhatneedstobedonetoreducethepotentialimpacts–buildingadaptivecapacityattheprojectandherdmanagementscalewilllessenthevulnerabilityofcaribou

(Figure1).Ifnoactionswereavailabletoreducethepotentialimpactsofoilandgasactivityoncaribou,thenwewouldconcludethatthesystemhasnoadaptivecapacitytoreducethepotentialimpacts.Thusadaptivecapacity,inthisreport,isthesuiteofactionsthatallstakeholders(industry,territorial,federalandaboriginalgovernments,andco-managementboards)canusetominimizeimpactson,andthevulnerabilityof,caribou.

ForthePorcupineherd,theneedtoreduceimpactsisrecognizedintheidentificationofsensitivehabitats(InternationalPorcupineCaribouBoard1993).ForNorthernMountaincaribou,EnvironmentCanada’s(2012)managementplanrecommendsfollowingbestpracticesguidelines.Atadevelopmentproject-specificlevel,mitigationandmonitoringactionsensurethatoperationsareconductedtominimizeimpactsoncaribou.Mitigationeffectivenessismonitoredand,ifnoteffective,changestomitigationareenacted.Thiscycle,calledanadaptivemanagementcycleimprovestheadaptivecapacityofthesystem(Figure21).

BecauseallstakeholdersinPCHconservationhaveaninterestinreducingimpactsandallgroupsbringtheirknowledgetothetable,wesuggestthemechanismtoimplementtheadaptivemanagementcycleisacollaborativeTechnicalWorkingGroup(TWG).AcollaborativeTWGreducestheneedtogettheproject-specificmitigationrightfromtheonset,improvementswillevolvethroughoutthelifeoftheprojectandtheendresultcanbecometheinitialmitigationandmonitoringplanwhenthenextoilandgasdevelopmentisproposed.

Figure21Theadaptivemanagementcycleisanimportantcomponentinvulnerabilityassessment

AlevelofmitigationactionsisalreadybuiltinatthelandscapescaleforthePorcupineherd.TheNorthYukonLandUsePlan(NYLUP)hasdesignatedcertainregionsformoreorlessprotectionforthePCHbasedoncurrentseasonalmovementpatterns,knowledgeofsensitivehabitatsandresourcepotential.Alongwiththeseregionaldesignations,theNYLUPsetsgeneralthresholdsforlinearandsurfacedisturbancethattriggersacceleratinglevelsofconcern.Thethresholdstriggercautionaryapproachestotheintensityofdevelopment,whichwouldalsobeflaggedasincreasingthesensitivityofcaribou.ItshouldbenotedthatsimilarLandUsePlansfortheDawsonandPeelregionshavenotbeencompleted,butbothofwhichcontainPorcupineCaribourange.

Caribou Technical Advisory Group

Adaptive capacity

Potential

On-Site Mitigation Monitoring

Governmentshavealreadyagreedsincethe1987AgreementbetweentheGovernmentofCanadaandtheGovernmentoftheUnitedStatesofAmericaontheConservationofthePorcupineCaribouHerdtoexistingprotectionmeasuresforhowthePCHshouldbemanaged.ThePorcupineCaribouManagementBoardandtheInternationalPorcupineCaribouBoardwerecreatedtoimplementawithin-Canadaandaninternationalagreement,respectively.AgoodexampleofhowtheseagreementsleadtoactionisthecreationofaPorcupineCaribouHarvestManagementStrategythatisdesignedtoensureharvestismanagedstrategically,takingintoaccountthebestcurrentmonitoringinformationonthestatusandhealthoftheherdandaddedpressuresontheherdwithrespecttoindustrialdevelopment,allbalancedbythesubsistenceneedsofaboriginalcommunities.

7.2 Best Management Practices versus mitigation Inourreview,wefoundthedistinctionbetweenBestManagementPracticesandmitigationisunclear.Asagenerality,BestManagementPracticesarenormallyinplacethoroughpolicyorlegislationandtheirgoalisto“avoid”and/or“minimize”industryeffectsoncaribou.Typically,theyarebroad-levelrecommendationsattheregionalscale.Forexample,acommonbestpractice,andoneadoptedbytheNYLUP,is“tominimizetheconstructionofallseasonroads.”BestManagementPracticesactageneralsetofguidelinesforproject-specificmitigation.

AnexampleofBestManagementPracticesforbarren-groundcaribouarefromtheNorthwestTerritories,wherethe2014WildlifeAct(NWT),requiresforindustrialprojectslikelytodisturbwildlifeorhabitat,theproponenthastoproducemonitoringandmitigationplansaccordingtothe2015Wildlife&WildlifeHabitatProtectionPlanandWildlifeEffectsMonitoringProgram.TheProgram’sGuidelinessetouttheproceduresratherthandetailedmitigationandsoareequivalenttoBestManagementPractices.Then,theMackenzieValleyImpactReviewBoard(andNunavutImpactReviewBoard)reviewstheproponent’smonitoringandmitigationplansandusetheequivalentofacase-lawapproachwithproponentsandintervenersaccumulatingexperienceformitigationandmonitoringthroughsuccessiveenvironmentalassessments.

7.2.1 BestManagementPractices–whatweknow.TheYukongovernmentin2013describedOilandGasBestManagementPracticesas“Arangeofpracticesthatcanreducethetime,intensityordurationofthefootprintonthelandbase–notusuallyprescriptive.”Thegoalsaregeneralandinclude“toconservewildlifeandfisherieshabitat.”(http://www.emr.gov.yk.ca/oilandgas/best_management_practices.html).Thewebsiteexplainsthatatthistime(2017),theBestManagementPracticesareavailableforseismic,historicresourcesandwildernesstourism.TheYukonChamberofMinescompileda2010YukonMineralandCoalExplorationBestManagementPracticesandRegulatoryGuidehttp://www.yukonminers.ca/images/BMP_RG_October28_REVISED_WebFile_Apr15.pdf.

WeknowthatBestManagementPracticesareavailableforborealandNorthernMountaincaribouinBCandAlberta.AppendixCliststhosedevelopedforNorthernMountaincaribouinB.C.,whichweviewasa“strawdog”forYukoncaribouasconsultationisessentialfor

developingcredibleBMPs.ThetopicsforB.C.’sBMPsincludethefollowing,whichcoveractivitiessuchexplorationdrilling,accessmanagement(construction,use,decommissioning),timingofactivities,wasteanddrillsitemanagementandcampoperation:• Identifytheimpactsofproposedactivitiesoncaribouandcaribouhabitat.• Avoidorminimizenewdisturbancetoandthelossofimportanthabitats.• Avoidincreasingthedensityoflineardisturbanceswithinorinproximitytocaribouhabitat.• Avoiddisplacingcaribouandminimizedirectandindirectmortalityoncariboupopulations.• Avoidincreasingthepredationriskforcariboupopulations.• Avoidcontaminatingcaribouhabitat.• Restorehabitatstoaconditionthatprovidesasimilarleveloffunctionalcaribouhabitatas

beforeanyindustrialactivitytookplace.• Developamonitoringandadaptivemanagementplantomonitortheeffectivenessof

measurestoavoid,minimizeandrestore.

WenotethattheseBestManagementPracticesoverlapwiththoseproposedintheNYLUPandbyEnvironmentYukonfortheNCYproposal.AppendixCreferstoseismic,explorationdrilling,accessmanagementandcampoperations.TheBestManagementPracticesforSeismic(YTG2006)aresimilartothoserecommendedforBCandwedidnotidentifyanygaps.However,wedidnothaveaccesstoacurrentstudyonwildlifeandseismiclinesintheYukon(K.SimpsonandM.Suitorpers.comm.2017),whichmaybetterinformpossiblerecommendationsforseismicoperations.Wedidnotfindanystudiesthatdescribetheimplicationsoftheconcentrationoflinesin3-Dseismic.

Timing:BritishColumbiaappliesariskwindowapproachtoencourageavoidanceofimpactsbyestablishingcaribouseasonswhentheriskisleast.Least-riskwindowsdivideacalendaryearintocritical,cautionary,andlowriskwindowsbasedonthespeciesecology.Criticalandcautionarytimingwindowscoverthetimewhenaspeciesismostsensitivetodisturbance,andwhendevelopmentshouldbeavoided.Low-risktimingwindowsaredefinedwhenspeciesareleastsensitivetodisturbance;developmentactivitiesshouldbeplannedforlowriskwindowswheneverpossible.WehavemodifiedtheLeast-riskwindowapproachdevelopedforbarren-groundcaribouinNunavutbyincludingthedatesforthePorcupineherd(Table3).

BestManagementPracticeformigratorycaribou(NorthernMountainandbarren-groundcaribou)mayrequirebalancingeffectsthroughtiming.Forexample,activitiescanbetimedfortheseasonswhenthehabitatisnotoccupied:forexample,requiringsummerdrillingandcampsonacaribouwinterrangewillreducecariboubehaviouralresponses.However,thoseactivitiesmayrequireanall-seasonroad,whichcanhaveeffectsfromincreasedaccessthroughouttheyear.

Table2:Seasons,riskcategory,timingandcariboususceptibilitydevelopedforbarren-groundcaribouinNunavut(KivalliqInuitAssociation2016)withthedatesforthePorcupineherd(PCMB1993)

SeasonRisk

category Timing CariboususceptibilityandbehaviourSpringmigration/pre-calving

Cautionary 1April–31MayNarrowcorridorsofcowsoftenrapidlymovingtogetherwithoccasionalstaginginlargeaggregations

Calving Crucial 1-10JuneHighdensitiesofcowsatannuallylowestpartofconditioncycle;cowsandnewborncalvesmoreresponsivetodisturbances

Post-calving/insectseason Crucial 10June-15July

Cowsandcalvesaggregatingintolargegroupsandcalvessusceptibletoabandonmentandlossfromdisturbance;aggregationssusceptibletodisturbanceattraditionalwatercrossings

Summer/insectseason Cautionary 16July-7August

Cowsandcalvesaggregatingintolargegroups;aggregationssusceptibletodisturbanceattraditionalwatercrossings

Fallmigration/pre-rut Cautionary 8August-7October Caribouoftenmoredispersedandregaining

bodyconditionpriortobreedingRut/FallMigration Low 8October–30

November Cariboueithermigratingorstaging

Winter Low 1Dec-31March Caribouinaggregationsoveralargeareaandlessmovement

7.2.2 BestManagementPractices-whatwedonotknowWhatweknowtheleastaboutBestManagementPracticesishowtheyareimplementedandreviewed.Forexample,withintheexistingBMPforseismicoperations,wedonotknowhowtheyworkinpractice,asthereappearstobenofeedbackreportingonhowtheyareimplementedorhowadaptivemitigationforspecificdevelopmentswouldprovidefeedbackonanygapsintheseismicBMP.Whileweknowenoughfromtheexperienceofotherjurisdictionstoproducegeneralguidelines,wesuggesttheknowledgegapsaremoreinthespecificdetailsofmitigationsuchasdiscussedinSection8(thisreport).

EMRhasaskedusinthisreporttoidentifyknowledgegapsinanyBMPsthatexistincludinggapsthatwillinformBMPdevelopment.Wesuggestthatabottom-upapproach(resolvinguncertaintiesinmitigation)willinformthedevelopmentofBestManagementPracticesratherthanconstructingthegeneralguidelinesfirst.WealsosuggestthatfromtheexperienceparticularlyinBCforNorthernMountaincaribou,enoughinformationonBestManagementPracticesalreadyexistsandaswehavesuggested,AppendixCisastrawdogforacollaborativegrouptoinitiatediscussion.

7.3 Mitigation Mitigationisahierarchyofsite-orproject-specificactionsdesignedtoimplementthebroad-levelrecommendationstoreducetheeffectsoncaribou.Thus,ifforexample,anoilwelldrillprogramispermitted(throughanenvironmentalassessmentreview)tohaveanall-seasonroad,project-specificmitigationwilldeterminehowitisdesignedandoperatedtominimizeimpactsoncaribou(Figure22).Theprojectisdesignedandoperatedto‘avoid’effects;ifeffectsareunavoidablemitigationsshould‘minimize’theeffectsandifresidualeffectsarestillsignificant,mitigationsshould‘offset’effects(‘Offset’isequivalentto‘Compensate’).Basedonthe“precautionaryprinciple,”itfollowsthatgapsinbaselineinformationdescribingexposureandsensitivitywillrequirestrongermitigationtoensurethatpotentialimpactsarenotmissed.Typically,mitigationactionsshouldbedesignedtoescalateindirectresponsetotheexposureandorsensitivityofthecaribou(Figure22).

Figure22Anexampleofescalatingmitigationforroadandtrafficuse

Thehierarchialapproachtomitigationiswell-established(Jakle2012).AnexampleistherapidandextensiveoilandgasdevelopmentontherangeoftheGreaterSageGrousethatwasafactorwhentheUSFishandWildlifeServicedeterminedthatthebirdwasacandidateforprotectionundertheUSEndangeredSpeciesAct.Thereasoningwasbecausethreatsincludedhabitatlossandalackofregulatorymechanismstopreventfutureimpacts(USFWS2010inKiroletal.,2015).Subsequently,collaborationbetweenindustry,governmentandnon-governmentundertookmitigationwithmeasuredanddocumentedsuccesses(Kiroletal.,2015).

Mostexamplesofanescalatingmitigationapproachfollowtheflowdiagramin.Toillustratethisapproachandgeneralapplication,Figure23showshowadaptivemanagementandmonitoringcanimproveproject-specificmitigation.

Figure23Theadaptivemitigation-monitoringcycleincorporatingescalatingmitigationconcept

Inthissectionwehighlightlinkstoenvironmentalassessmentwebsitesthathaveon-sitemitigationplansformigratorytundracaribou.IntheNWT,theMackenzieValley’sEnvironmentalImpactReviewBoard(MVEIRB)isaco-managementbodyresponsiblefortheenvironmentalassessmentreviewprocess(exceptonInuvialuitLands).MVEIRBlists34completedenvironmentalassessmentsand6on-goingassessmentssince2000(http://www.reviewboard.ca/about/).AllassessmentscontainmitigationplansatvariouslevelsofdetailandmostlytermedWildlifeMonitoringandMitigationPlans.Similarly,forNunavut,theNunavutImpactReviewBoard(NIRB)allowssearchesoftheirregistryandfinalenvironmentalassessmentdocumentsincludethedetailedproposedmonitoringandmitigationsthatNIRB’sprojectcertificatemaylistasbindingconditions.

Thelistsofmitigationstendtobebroadlysimilarbetweenmitigationplansanddonotshowmuchevidenceforalinearprogressionovertime;inotherwords,whathasworkedandnotworkedandwhererefinementsareneeded.Forexample,Table3isfortheproposedKiggavikmineandismoredetailedthanthosemeasuresproposedby,forexample,NorthernCross.

However,welacktheknowledgetoknowwhichspeedsandstoppingtimesrelativetogroupsizeareappropriate.

Table3:Vehicleprotocolswhenencounteringcaribou,developedfortheAREVA’sproposedKiggavikmine,Nunavut.

Distanceofcariboufromtheroad

Lessthan10adultsinanurserygroup Morethan10adultsinanurserygroup

Lessthan200m Drivertoremainstoppedfor30minutes,thenmayproceedat20km/hrifbehaviourisunchangedandcaribouarenotmovingtowardstheroad

Drivertoremainstoppeduntilcaribouaregreaterthan500mfromtheroad

200–500m Drivertoremainstoppedfor10minutes,thenmayproceedat20km/hrifbehaviourisunchanged

Drivertoremainstoppeduntilcaribouaregreaterthan500mfromtheroad

Insight&>500m Drivertoproceedat30km/hr Drivertoproceedat30km/hr

BothB.C.andAlbertahaveseenconsiderableoilandgasdevelopmentontherangesofborealandNorthernMountaincaribouwhichhasledtobestpracticesandmitigation.Detailedmitigationplansareavailableforindividualdevelopmentprojectsthroughtheenvironmentalassessmentprocess(http://www.eao.gov.bc.ca/ea_process.html).

Otherusefulwebsitesdealingwithmitigationare:

http://www.env.gov.bc/emop/(listsdocumentswithpoliciesandprocedures)

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wld/speciesconservation/bc/documents/boreal_caribou_biol_rationale_may8_2009.pdf

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wld/frpa/uwr/approved_uwr.html

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wld/BMP/bmpintro.html(InterimOperatingPracticesforOilandGasActivitiesinIdentifiedBorealCaribouHabitatinBritishColumbia(IOPs))

http://open.alberta.ca/publications/caribou-protection-plan-guidelines-and-caribou-calving-information(Alberta’sdraftplanforcaribourecoveryinNorthandCentralAlberta,2016)

http://aep.alberta.ca/fish-wildlife/wildlife-management/caribou-management/default.aspx

Alaska:Increasinglyoverthelast10yearsandinresponsetoextensiveoilandgasdevelopmentintheU.S.,mitigationisbeingtreatedasahierarchywithavoidance,minimization,remediationandoffsetting,similartoB.C.(Lutzetal.,2011;Jakle2012,Clementetal.,2014).InAlaska,themigratorytundraCentralArcticHerd(CAH)hasbeenexposedtodecadesofoildevelopmentandexplorationleaseshavebeengrantedfortheneighbouringTeshekpukherd(AppendixA)alsoforcalvingandsummerrangesonthecoastalplain.Theherd’scurrentmanagement

reportsthatthemanagementgoalto“MinimizetheadverseeffectsofdevelopmentonCAHcaribou”isbeingmetbutthedetailsonmitigationforcaribouareunreported(Lenart2015).However,Braundetal.,2013surveyedmitigationundertakenforsevenoildevelopmentprojectsinthevicinityofNuiqsut,asmallcommunityonthewesternextensionofthePrudhoeBayoilfield.Thesurveyliststhespecificmitigationforcaribouandlocalresidents’commentsaboutwhetherthemitigationwasineffective.

MitigationisnowproposedforoildevelopmentontheneighbouringTeshekpukherd’srangeswheretheNationalPetroleumReservesarebeingopenedforleasing(AppendixA).However,mitigationdetailsarelackingasthedevelopmentisnotyetoperational.Theinitialenvironmentalassessmentfortheleasingrecognizedalackofbaselineformovements,whichhasledtoadetailedanalysisofmovementsusingcollaredcariboutodeterminepathwaysforinsectrelieftoavoidconflictwiththeoilstructures(Carrolletal.,2007).

In2012,theU.S.DepartmentoftheInteriorreleasedanupdatedIntegratedActivityPlan/EnvironmentalImpactStatementcomparingalternativeareasanddevelopmentandlistingmitigationmeasuresforpubliccomment.TheTeshekpukLakeSpecialAreaandtheUtukokRiverUplandsSpecialAreaareexcludedfromleasinguntil2018and2014,respectively.However,theplandoesacknowledgethatexplorationactivity(seismicandtestdrilling)mayoccuronthewinterrangeoftheTeshekpukherd.Whenthelandsareofferedforleasing,environmentaleffectsareassessedandmitigationisprescribed,butnotindetail.Forexample,pipelinesshallbedesignedandconstructedtominimizealterationofcaribouandotherlargeungulatemovementandmigrationpatterns.Exploratorydrillingoperationsmayberestrictedduringthefallcariboumigration(August1throughOctober31)incertainrivervalleystoallowforsubsistencehunting.

7.3.1 MitigationsummaryPotentialimpactsincludethatcaribouavoidroadsandtrafficatvariabledistancesdependingonvegetation,observationmethods,predationandhunting.However,theresultsofreducingthoseimpactsthroughmonitoringandmitigationareuncertain.Wefoundmanyproposedactionsbasedonspeed,stoppingdistancesetc.butalmostnofollow-uptodetermineeffectiveness.Thesamegeneralpointcanbemadeaboutotherproposedmitigationandthresholdstomodifymitigationthroughmonitoring.Whilemuchinformationisavailableonbestpracticesandmitigation,itismostlyforborealandmountaincaribouandthereislessinformationformigratorytundracaribou.Thisleadsustosuggestthatamorecollaborativeapproachintegratingbaselineinformationonmovementswithenvironmentalvariationwouldbethebasisforbestpracticesandmitigation.

7.4 Monitoring TheNorthernCrossseismicprogramin2014wasanopportunitytotesttherelationshipbetweenobservednumbersofcaribouandthenumberofcollars.Theunknownrelationshipbetweencollarsandcaribouonthegroundsuggeststhatothermonitoringmethodsare

essential.Aswellasmitigation,recentenvironmentalassessmentsprovidealternativeapproachestomonitoring.Insteadofrelyingsolelyonthesatellitecollars,aerialsurveysorsnowtracksurveys,thereareotheroptions.Theseoptionshavetheadvantageprovidingquantitativeinformationthatrelatetothresholdsformitigation.WenotethatduringthehearingsforagoldmineinNunavut(Sabinaproject),theapproachestomonitoringforalongaroadarepossiblyrelevanttoNorthernCross(Table4).

Table4:ThreeoptionsformonitoringwildlifeencountersalongroadsderivedfromproposedmonitoringforSabina’sBackRiverproject.

Option1:ObservationBlindsAnobservationtowerwithablindatthetopwillbeconstructedattheobservationpoints.Whenactivemonitoringistriggered,cariboumonitorswillvisittheobservationblindduringdaylighthoursandscanforcaribou.Thedistancetocaribouwillbeestimatedusingmarkersoralaserrangefinder.Option2:TowerCamerasAremote-controlledcameraonatowerattheobservationpostswillbeabletorecordcaribououttothetriggerdistance.AnexampleisfromInfinityOptics,whichproducessurveillancecameras(http://www.infinitioptics.com/).Option3:Vehicle-BasedMonitoringCariboumonitorswillsurveythetundrafromvehiclesonprojecton-siteroadsatvantagepointsthatallowagoodviewofthesurroundingtundra.Methodswillfollowthosefortheobservationblinds.

7.5 Significant number of caribou InreviewingNCY’smitigationandmonitoringplansaswellasreactionstothoseplansfrompublic,boardsandgovernmentsthereisnoagreementonwhat“significant”numberofcaribouarerequiredtotriggerescalatingorde-escalatingmitigationandmonitoringactions.Aswell,therewasdisagreementonwhatmonitoringtechniquesareneededtoquantifycaribouabundanceinvicinityofoilandgasactivities(summarizedinTable5).

Table5:CollarandcaribouthresholdsforescalatingmitigationLevelsandassociatedmonitoringmethodsfortheNorthernCrossproject.GroupsareNCY-NorthernCrossYukon;Env.Yukon-EnvironmentYukon;andPCMB-PorcupineCaribouManagementBoard.

LEVEL Group #collars/distance #caribou/distance monitoringmethod

1

NCY 1/30km >500/30kmcollars;height-ofland:tracksurveys

EnvYukon 1/30km >500/30kmcollars;height-ofland:tracksurveys

PCMB 1/30km >500/30kmcollars;"ground";monthlyaerial

2 NCY 1/6km collarsEnvYukon 1/6km collars

PCMB 1/6km >250/6kmcollars;"ground,"monthlyaerial

3

NCY 2/6km collarsEnvYukon 2/6km collars

PCMB 25/600mcollars;"ground,"monthlyaerial

Giventhisvariationinthresholdsandmethods,wediscuss:

• Whatisknownabouthowmanycollarsarerequiredtoadequatelyrepresentthedistributionoftheherd:

• Howtotransfercollardistributiontocaribouabundanceontheground;and• Howtoutilize/linkdifferentscalesofmonitoringtobetterindexcaribouabundance

inthevicinityofdevelopmentactivities.

7.5.1 NumberofcollarsrequiredtorepresentherddistributionThekeytorelyingoncollarlocationsishavingconfidenceincollarsrepresentingcaribouabundanceatthespatialandnumerical(#ofcaribou)scalethatdecisionsneedtobemade.Afewstudieshaveaddressedthisproblemonlargemigratorycaribouherds.However,howmanycollarsareneededtoberepresentativeforaherdwillvaryseasonallyastheseasonalrangesvarygreatlyinsize.Thenextstepafterdetermininghowmanycollarsmayrepresentherdseasonaldistributionistoestimatethelikelihoodthatcollaredcaribouwillencounteraspecificlocationsuchasseismiclinesoracampwithinaseasonalrange(Section5.3and6.4.)

InLabrador,Ottoetal.,2003determinedthenumberofsatellitecollarsrequiredtosuccessfullymitigateimpactsoflowjetoverflightsontheGeorgeRiverherd.Theyusedherdsize,kerneldensityanalysis,adistributionbufferofapproximately30km(areaaroundcollarsthatconstitutedano-flyzone)andaverageseasonalgroupsizetodeterminethenumberofcollarsrequiredto“protect”caribouatspecificlevelsofprotection.Ottoetal.,2003definedprotectionprobabilityasthechancethatanyonerandomlyselectedcaribouwouldbe“captured”withinoneofthecaribou“groups”foundinsidetheassociatedKernelHomeRange.Forfallmigrationprotectionprobabilitylevelsof95%,75%and50%wouldrequire184,26,and18collarsrespectively.Thenumberofcollarswouldbe64,49,and34forwinterandforspring97,44and35collars.WhenOttoetal.(2003)completedtheiranalysis,therewereanestimated700,000caribouintheGeorgeRiverherdwithrangerequirementshigherthanthePCH.

Rettie(2008)usedcomputersimulationstoevaluatehowmanycollarswouldbenecessarytobe80%confidentthatdistributionwouldhave90%ofthegroupsduringcalvingorpost-calvingcensussurveys.HeusedthisprocedurefortheCapeBathurst,TukPeninsula,BluenoseWestandBluenoseWestherds(NWT).Heconcludedthenumberofcollarsrequiredwouldbe

(populationsizeinbrackets):BluenoseEast=38(63,600),BluenoseWest=81(18,000),CapeBathurst=35(1,400),TukPeninsula=21(3,000).

AdamczewskiandBoulanger(2016)workingontheBathurstCaribouHerdarguedforanincreaseinthenumberofcollarsontheherdtosatisfyanumberofusesincludingassessingfemalesurvival,andconfidentlyrepresentingwinterdistributiontoaidinharvestmanagementanddetectinginteractionswithdevelopmentinfrastructure.BysimplycreatingaMinimumConvexPolygon,essentiallymakingthesmallestpossiblepolygonaroundlocationpoints,andrandomlyreducingthenumberofpointstheyshowedthechangeintheestimateddistributionoftheherdrelativetothenumberofcollars.Theyarguefor50cowand15bullcollarsontheBathurstherdtobeableconfidentlydescribewinterdistributiontobeabletoassignaharvestedcariboutotheBluenoseEastHerdortheBathurstHerd.

Therearecurrentlyaround40satelliteand/orGPScollarsinthePCH.TobeabletoassignaconfidenceindetectingseasonaldistributionspecifictothePCHwouldrequireaseparateanalysis.Fromthestudiesabove,40-50collarsonfemalesadequatelyrepresentseasonaldistribution;collarsbeyond50marginallyimproveconfidence.

7.5.2 TranslatingcollarsrelativetocaribouabundanceonthegroundEventhoughthenumberofcollarstorepresentaseasonaldistributioncanbeestimated,itistypicallyalownumberrelativetothenumberofcariboulikelytoencounteraspecificlocationsuchasacamp.Forexample,forthePorcupineherd(April1985toJanuary2016),only1.3%ofthe59,157collarpathswaswithinorintersectedthe30-kmbufferaroundNorthernCross’sproposeddrilling(Section5.3.2.).AsimilarproblemoflowencounterrateswithinseasonaldistributionwasdescribedfortheTeshekpukandWesternArcticherdapproachingtheRedDogminehaulroadduringfallmigration(Wilsonetal.2016).Thestudyinvolved216cariboucollaredbetween2004and2013whichhad263migrationpaths.Only12%(32)camewithin15kmoftheroadduringautumnmigrationand9%(24)collaredcariboucrossedtheroad.

Thesmallsamplesizeofcollaredcaribouistypicalofbarren-groundcariboumonitoringandtheconsequentlowencounterratesrestrictsrelyingononlycollaredcaribouformonitoring.Wefoundlittleefforttolinkthelocationofcollarstoabundanceofcaribouontheground.TheonlyexamplewefoundwasdesignedtoaddresstheneedformobileprotectionareasinthewinterandmigrationrangesoftheBluenoseEastCaribouHerd(GunnandPoole2011).Intheirstudy,eighthypotheticalexplorationsiteswereidentifiedwithintheBluenoseEastherdrange.Whencollarswerelocatedwithinanearlywarningzone,aerialsurveyswereconductedfromtheexplorationsitetotheoutsideedgeofthebufferzone(Figure24).

Figure24ThestudydesignshowingEarlyWarning,BufferandZoneofInfluencearoundahypotheticalexplorationsite.FromGunnandPoole(2011).

GunnandPoole(2011)setthethresholdfortemporarysuspensionoflanduseactivitiesas25caribouinthezoneofinfluence.Thethresholdwasexceededatthreeoftheeightsites(Figure25).Thethresholdof50caribouinthebufferzonewasexceededatfoursites,andfortwoofthosesitesthosecaribounumberswouldhavejustifiednoticetotheexplorationmanagerandthelanduseinspectorofapotentialsuspensionshouldcaribouenterthezoneofinfluence.Oncethresholdexceedednumberrequiredtosuspendoperations,thensurveycouldbecancelledtoreduceflyingtime.

Figure25TwoexamplesoftheresultsofcollarlocationandaerialsurveysfromstudybyGunnandPoole(2011).

Exploration site

Aerial Monitoring survey

area

Zone of influence(caribou response

distance)

Bufferzone

Early Warningzone Exploration site

Aerial Monitoring survey

area

Zone of influence(caribou response

distance)

Bufferzone

Early Warningzone

GunnandPoole(2011)concludedthatthesatellite-collaredcowlocationswere,withinthescaleoftheirpilotproject,relativelypredictiveoftheoverallnumbersofcaribouwithinthebufferzoneandthezoneofinfluence.However,theuseofthecollarsalonewithoutaerialsurveyscouldresultineitherunnecessaryrestrictionsorlossofprotectionforcaribou.Thecollarsarepredictiveofregional,notsitespecificdistributionatthescaleof10sofkilometres.However,thiscouldchangedependingonthetypeofcollarsasashifttoGPScollarscouldincreasetheacquisitionoffinerscalelocations.

Animprovementonthisstudywouldbetoconductsimultaneousgroundsurveys(height-of-land,trucksightingsorsnowtrack)sothatdatawouldbeavailableatthreescales.Calibratingthescalesanddeterminingtheeffectsofsightabilityofthecariboucanprecedeanyactualdrillingprogram.InthereviewoftheNCYprojectandintervenercomments,themainconcernwasthereluctanceoftheoperatortostartaerialsurveysandtheirtotalrelianceoncollarsasatriggertoescalatemitigationmeasures.NCYplanstoconductincidentalroadobservations,heightoflandsurveysandtracksurveysaroundthedevelopmentzonebutthereisnoclearquantitativelinktocalibratebetweenthosesurveysandnumberofcaribou.NCYproposedtosuspendsnowtracksurveysifacollarcamewithin6kmofthedevelopment.InrelyingoncollarsNCYdorecommendincreasingthenumberofcollarsfrom~50to100tobetterrepresentcaribouabundanceatafinerscale.Intheirsubmissionhowever,PCMBindicatedthatwouldcostanadditional$300,000ayear,asumthatwashardtojustify.Concernwasalsoraisedaboutthecoststothecaribouthemselves.

PCMBandothersrecommendedaerialsurveysbedonemonthlyoncecollarsareinthe30-kmbufferzone.Fromouranalysismostofthecollarspassthroughthe30-kmbufferzoneinOctoberandNovemberandfromFigure17wedeterminedthataverageresidencytimeinthosemonthsare7and9daysrespectivelywith~30%ofthecollarsmovingthoughthebufferzoneinlessthan5days.

Thereisaneedtoemployamoreoperationalmethodologytoassesscaribouabundanceandtobeabletoadaptthemethodologyastechnologychanges–forexampleforGlobalStarorIridiumcollars(M.Suitorpers.comm.).Weproposethatthereneedstobeamorerigorouslydesignedresearchprojectthataddsground-basedsurveystoGunnandPoole’s(2011)protocols.Hypotheticaldevelopment(surrogate)sitescanbechosenanywhere(althoughtheterrainshouldbesimilar),asthecariboudonotneedtobeinthevicinityoftheproposedNCYdevelopment.Theresultantlinkagesofthemonitoringmethodstoestimatecaribouabundancecouldbethebasistobeginoperationsbutthegoalintheinitialdevelopmentyearsistobetterrefinethemethodologies.

7.5.3 VHFcollarsInthePorcupineherdVHFcollarshavebeentheprimarycollartypeinuse.Onlyinrecentyearshavesatellite/GPScollarsbeguntomatchthenumberofVHFcollars.Theadvantageiscost,VHFcollarscostabout20%ofsatellitecollars;thedisadvantageisyouhavetobewithinrange

ofthecollartogetalocation(mostoftenfromaircraft).Thusinsteadofcurrently45collarsonPCHfemalestherearecloseto100collarsifweincludeVHFcollars(the#suggestedbyNCY).Inrecentyearsanumberofstudiesusingtowers(USForestService;http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/starkey/tracking.shtml)ordrones(http://diydrones.com/profiles/blogs/trackerbots)arefindinglowcostwaysofmonitoringVHFcollarsinsmallerregionalareas.Wesuggestthatdoublingthenumberofcollarswillincreaseconfidenceintrackingmovementsandabundanceofcaribouinthe30-kmbufferzone.EquippedwithavideocameraandaVHFreceiverroutinedroneflightsmayserveasacollarlocation-monitoringtool,heightofgroundandtracksurveyall-in-one.WenotethatcurrentlysatellitebasedcollarsareexclusivelydeployedandthusthenumberofactiveVHFcollarswilldeclineoverthenextfewyears.

7.6 Access management Accessmanagementisarelativelywell-researchedquestion–forexample,B.C.hasanextensiveliteraturereview(seeareviewbyWilsonandHamilton(2001)).Howeverwehaveincludeditasaknowledgegapinthisreport,asalthoughbestpracticesforaccessmanagementisbeingdevelopedfortheNorthYukonLandUsePlan,therecurrentlyremainsgapsintechniquesandunderstandingrelativetotraditionalharvestingandeducationandtotheinter-relationshipbetweencaribouresponsestoharvestinganddevelopment.

NorthernCrosslistedaseriesofmitigationsinits2014RoadAccessPlanforthesixpointsofaccessofwinterorall-seasonroadswiththeDempsterHighway(Table6).Aswellasroadaccess,theroadswillfacilitateoff-roadaccess,whichisalikelyissuemostlyduringwinterastravelovertheterraininsummerismoredifficult.AreviewofU.S.forestryroadsfoundthatlockedgatesandearthbermswerelargelyineffectiveinpreventingmotorizeduseonroadsdesignated'closed'or'restricted'(Havlick1999).Researchintotheeffectivenessofsignshasfocusedonwarningaboutthepresenceofwildlifecrossingsratherthanroadclosures(Huijeretal.,2009,2015).However‘static’signshavelimitedeffectivenessandchangingsigns(electronicmessages)aremoreeffective.

Figure26Themapshowsthesixaccesspoints(reddots)forthewinterorall-weatherroadsneededtoaccessthedrillsitesfromtheDempsterHighway.

Table6:ComponentsofanAccessManagementPlanpreparedbyNCYwithcommentsfromVGFNandthisreport.

NCY2014accessplan VGFNcomments2015 Thisreport

NCYhastherighttorestrictaccesstoauthorizedprojectpersonnel.

VGFNcitizenswillbegrantedaccessonprojectroads(includingtheChanceRoad)forthepurposesoftrapping.

Tominimizecaribouresponses,trafficandpeopleshouldberestrictedtominimum

Allprojectroadswillbegated,andradiocontrolledtopreventunauthorizeduse.

NCYwilldevelopalternativemitigationswhengatesproveineffective.Thetriggertoimplementalternativemitigationswillbewhenonegateordecommissionedroadiscircumvented.

Gatesunlessmannedaretypicallyineffective;afterroadisdecommissioned,travelsurfaceshouldberemovedorblocked(slashorearthbermsconstructedtoanapproximateheightof2metres

Signswillbepositionedatallroadaccesspoints.

Signsshouldbeupdated(electronic)&withaneducationprogram

Usepre-existinglinearfeatures.

Dog-legstoreducelineofsight(butvisibilityneededfordriversandwildlife).

Vehicleswillberestrictedto50km/h.

Safevehiclespeedunknown–needstobeflexible.

Allwildlifewillhavetheright-of-wayonroadsandvehicleswillstopwhenwildlifeisencountered.

Additionalspeedrestrictionswillbeimplementedwhenlargenumbersofcaribouarepresent.

Alsousepilottruckorconvoytraffictocreatecrossing‘gapsintime.’

First100mofroadsconnectingtotheDempsterHighwaywillbemadeimpassableusingappropriatemethods(e.g.rockfencingandditches).

Allroadsandclearingswillbedecommissionedtostateoffunctionalhabitatrestorationassoonaspractical.

Rollback,vegetationplanting,mounding,installationofbermsortemporarybarriersduringanyshutdowns.

AllprojectroadsthatleadofftheDempsterHighwaywillbemonitoredforpublicaccessonadailybasiswhencaribouareinthearea

Mannedgateswithremotevideocameras.

Snowembankmentsandwindrowswillbelimitedto1.5minheight,withbreaksevery500mtofacilitatecariboumovement.Breakswillbeestablishedoppositeoneanother,notoffset.

Education Explaincariboubehaviourespeciallyrelativetotrafficandunexpectedmovements.

Whilewehavereviewedimpactsofdisturbanceandmitigationformigratorytundracaribou,wenotethelackofanalysesonhowcaribouintegratebothenvironmentalaffects(sensitivity)andexposuretomorethanonesetofdisturbances.IntheWesternArcticherd’srange,analysesofsatellitecollarssuggestdelayanddeflectionduringfallmigrationatadistanceof50kmfromtheRedDogminehaulroad(Dau2015).However,huntingisrestrictedtoonepartoftheroad(Dau2015)suggestingthattheextentofthedelayanddeflection,whichvariedannually,requiresgreaterunderstanding.TheDaltonHighwaylinkingFairbankstoPrudhoeBay

crossingtherangesoftheCentralArcticHerdhashuntingalongthehighwaybutthedatahavenotbeenanalysedontheresponsesofthecariboutothehighway.

InNunavut,asupplyall-weatherroadbetweenacommunityandminestartedoutasprivateuntilthecommunityrequestedtouseitforcaribouhunting.Whilehuntinginthevicinityoftheroadincreased,theevidencethattheoverallharvestincreasedwasunclearandbutwasalsosuggestivethatthefallhuntingaddedtotheresponsivenessofthecariboutoinfrastructureandtheirdeflectionfromtheMeadowbankRoad.

ThePorcupineCaribouManagementBoardhasaHarvestManagementStrategythatwillneedtotrackanypotentialchangesinharvestlevelsifNorthernCrossaccesschangestheharvestamount.Thegreaterproblemliesinhowhuntinginfluencescariboubehaviourchangestoindustrialactivities,andhowtomitigatethateffect.Thereisnoevidence-basedapproachduetolackofanalysesandpre-designedmonitoring,tocomparingresponsestotrafficbeforeandafterexposuretohunting.

Wenotethatthedisturbancewillhavetheleasteffectonthecaribouwhenitispredictable(vehiclestraveltheroadsatconsistenttimesandspeeds).Morecanbedoneusingmonitoringtofine-tunethetimeofdayandpreferredcrossinglocationstoincreasethepredictabilityforthecaribouthatcanthenbeincorporatedintotrafficmanagement.ThisappliesevenmorestronglytopeopleonfootandATVs.

7.7 Benefits of a technical advisory group Environmentalassessmentincreasinglyleadstorecommendationsforadaptivemonitoringandmitigation.Issuesoftechnicalcomplexityarecommonplaceandrequiresharingwithcommunitiestoempowerthemtotrustandunderstandhowtheirresourcesarebeingcaredfor.Thereisalsotheneedtoincorporatecommunityvaluesandknowledgeduringthemonitoringandmitigation.Atechnicaladvisoryworkinggroupisideallyplacedtoensurecollaborationandtoactasago-betweenforthepublicandtheproponentbyprovidingoversight(watching).Inapracticalsense,respondingtowrittencommentssuchasreviewsofannualmonitoringreportscanbeprotractedanddifficulttomanageespeciallywhenseveralagenciesandgroupsareinvolved.Face-to-facemeetingstendtobemoreproductiveinfindingcommongroundontechnicalissues.

Finalizedwildlifeandmitigationplansthroughtheenvironmentalassessmentprocessofdrafts,informationrequestsandhearingsarecollaborative.ThispointwasmadeforexampleinB.C.’sfinalmitigationplanfortheRomancoalmineproposedwithintherangesofanorthernmountaincaribouherd.TheneedfortimelycollaborationunderlinestheapproachtakenbyBaffinland,whichinconjunctionwiththeQikiqtaniInuitAssociation(QIA)establishedaTerrestrialEnvironmentTechnicalWorkingGrouppriortothefinalizationoftheFinalEnvironmentalImpactStatement(FEIS).NIRB’ssubsequentprojectcertificatesupportedthecontinuationoftheadvisorygrouptoBaffinland’sfurtherdevelopmentofmonitoringand

mitigationplansforprojectinteractionswiththeterrestrialenvironment,includingwildlifeandwildlifehabitat.

NCY’sWMMPwasdesignedtobecollaborativeasitincludedsuggestionsfromthePorcupineCaribouManagementBoard,EnvironmentYukonandtheYukonLandUsePlanningCouncil.However,giventheextensivepublicconcernsduringtheinformationrequestsandtheuncertaineffectivenessoftheproposedadaptivemanagement(seefollowingtext),furthercollaborationwouldbehelpfultoNCY.

ThefourdiamondminesintheNWTestablishedoversightbodiesformonitoringandmitigationduringtheirenvironmentalassessmentsandsubsequentenvironmentalagreements.Whilethescaleof10-20drillpadsandroadsovertwoyearsarenotthesamescaleasopenpitmining,bothtypesofdevelopmentsrequiremonitoringandadaptivemitigationandcollaborativeoversightbodiesplayavaluablerole.Affolderetal.,(2011)reviewedthreeofthoseNWToversightcommitteesfortheEkati,DiavikandSnapLakediamondmines.TheAffolderreviewmadethepointaboutthedifferentandsometimesconflictingmandatesoftheoversightbodiesandwhethertheirroleisrigoroustechnicaloversightofenvironmentalmonitoringortocommunicateaboutcommunityconcerns.

Oversightdoesnotmeanthepowertoaffectdecisions,itisaboutwatchingmonitoringandmitigationchoicesandactions,offeringtechnicaladviceandcommunicatingaboutcommunityconcerns.Theexactrolesandmeansofadvisingaretypicallyoutlinedinanenvironmentalagreementorinatermsofreference.

NorthernCrossestablishedaworkinggroupwithFirstNationgovernments,territorialgovernmentagenciesandthePCMBin2013aspartoftheYESABDecisionDocument,2013-0067fortheir3Dseismicoperation.Theworkinggroupmetseveraltimesoverthewinterof2013-14butdidnothavethetimeandinformationtodevelopatermsofreferenceortoalwaysreachagreement.InthiscontextofadaptivemonitoringandmitigationforthePorcupineCaribouHerdandNorthernCross,wesuggesttheconclusionsfromAffolderetal.,2011ofoversightbodiesisusefulandgermane:

“Modelsofoversightdiffer,asdofunctions.Aparticularchallengeforexistingoversightagenciesariseswheretheyaretaskedwithmultiple(andpotentiallyconflicting)roles.Someoversightbodiestakeonmandatesoftechnicaloversightandinvestigationthatdemandindependenceanddistancetoensurepublicconfidenceintheirprocessesandresults.Atthesametimetheyarechargedwithcommunicationandbridge-buildingrolesthatrequireacertainembeddednessandclosenesstobeabletoserveaseffectiveconduitsbetweencommunitiesandprojectteams.Oneconclusionofthisreportisthatthistensionneedstobeacknowledged.Thedangerofnotadmittingtothistensionliesinthetemptationtoseekoutsomemiddleground–anon-independentbodytaskedwithoversightyetlackingrobustpowers,or,alternatively,ahighly-skilledtechnicalbodylackingthefundingandpersonneltoeffectivelycommunicatecommunityneeds.Neitherform

mayprovidethemosteffectivesolutiontocommunityneeds.Carefulattentiontothequestion–whatformofoversightdoesthecommunityneedtogainconfidenceintheRemediationPlan–mustcomebeforeadecisionontheformandfunctionofanappropriateoversightbody.“

BasedonexperienceinNunavutandtheNorthwestTerritories,wesuggestthatduringatleastannualmeetings,itiscrucialtohaveaccesstomonitoringdataandlevelsofprojectactivity.Ifthresholdsareapproached,thegroupshouldmeettoreviewthemandthenchangethemitigationactivity.Themonitoringprotocols,thresholdsandmonitoringdesignshouldbecollaborativelydecidedusingallavailableinformation.

7.8 Knowledge gaps Fromourreviewandpersonalexperiencewehighlightanumberofknowledge(orprocess)gapsthatcouldimproveourunderstandingofcaribou-industryinteractionsandbetterfacilitateadaptivemitigationandmonitoringplanimplementation.

7.8.1 AdaptivemanagementAclearknowledgegapistheextenttowhichmonitoringandmitigationworktogetherinanadaptivemanagementcontext.Typicallythelistedbestpracticesarerelativelygeneralizedwithwordingsuchasreducingsensorydisturbance,orforroads,reduceriskofdisturbanceormortality.Thefine-tuningofmitigationisthroughmonitoringthatcanleadtoadjustmentsinthemitigation.Thisisusuallydescribedasadaptivemanagement,whichinitsmostpuresenseis“asystematicandrigorousapproachforlearningthroughdeliberatelydesigningandapplyingmanagementactionsasexperiments”,(MurrayandMarmorek,2004).IntheNWT,themostprogressforadaptivemanagementiswithaquaticsmonitoringandmitigationasthethresholdsforwaterchemistryarebetterquantified(Racheretal.,2010;Figure27)

Figure27SchematicofadaptivemanagementfromRacheretal.,2010

However,inpractice,adaptivemanagementisalsothatalternativetreatments(applicationofmitigationactions)maybesequentialratherthanbecomparedatthesametimethroughformalexperiments.Whilemostlearningaboutmitigationwouldpreferablybefromexperimentaldesignsstatisticallycomparing,forexample,severallevelsortypesofdustcontrolatthesametime,thisisnotalwayspractical.Shortcomingsinthetestingofeffectivenessofmitigationactionsisknown.Forexample,theJointReviewPanelfortheMackenzieValleyPipeline(JRP2009)indicatedthatparticipantsraiseddoubtsaboutwhethermonitoringprogramsweresufficientlywell-designedtotesttheaccuracyofimpactpredictionsandeffectivenessofmitigation.Anotherexampleisthatalthoughmonitoringandmitigationhavebeenunderwaysince1996atanopenpitandundergrounddiamondmineintheNWT(Ekati),duringanenvironmentalassessmentforanextensionofthemine,theIndependentEnvironmentalMonitoringAgency(theoversightbody)askedhowmonitoringwasleadingtoimprovingmitigation(MVEIRB2016).Aspecificexamplewaswhethercaribouroadcrossingswereeffectiveandthataquantitativeassessmentofcrossingramplocationsandfrequencyisneededtodetermineifcurrentcariboucrossingrampsareeffective.

TheannualreportsonmonitoringandmitigationtypicallyforN.W.T.andNunavutminesaresparseonhowmitigationisactuallytriggeredanditslevelreducedorintensified.Specifictestingofmitigationeffectivenessisrare.AnexceptionwasinAlaska,wherecaribouresponsestospeedrestrictionsandtruckconvoyingona16-kmgravelroadservingadrillingwellweremonitoredforthreeyearsonthecalvingandsummerrangeoftheCentralArcticHerd.Frequencyoftrafficwaslowwhichmaybewhytrafficconvoying(1.5trucks/convoyand2.4convoys/dayonaverage)wasineffectiveatreducingcalvingdisplacementtolessthan2.4km

Assess

Design

Implement

Monitor

Evaluate

Adjust

Assess

Define Water Licence Conditions:• Set Action Levels• Best management practices• Set EQC• Define monitoring program

• Set environmental objectives• Significance thresholds• Conceptual models of how project will impact

environment• Define hypotheses and assumptions• How will/should learning from the project be applied

Describe learning:• Differences between

original models and reality as modelled

• Compare reality to predictions and objectives as defined in assessment phase

Env. Assessment

Project – Reg.

•

• Refine models to reconcile with actual monitoring data

• Refine hypotheses and new assumptions• Re-evaluate Effluent Quality Criteria (EQC)

and other best management practices•

orreducingthedisturbancereactionsofcaribouwithin500moftheroad(Lawheadetal.,2004).Ingeneral,however,inAlaskaoilfielddevelopments,mitigationisnotsufficientlymonitoredtotesteffectiveness(Braundetal.,2013).

AdaptivemanagementforNorthernCrossisanareatobestrengthenedasmuchdependsonreachingagreementonthresholdsthataretiedtothesensitivityofthecaribouandthetypeofexposure.OurdiscussionontheimportanceofaTechnicalWorkingGroup(TWG)isalsogermanetothisissue.OneofthekeyrolesoftheTWGwouldbetoensurethereisanadequatereviewoftheeffectivenessofmitigationandtothusimproveadaptivemitigation.

7.8.2 HabituationandlearningAlthoughhabituation(learningtoadjustandreducebehaviouralresponses)hasbeensuggestedforcaribouonthePrudhoeBayoilfield,clearevidenceislackingasfewstudieswereundertaken.Lawheadetal.,(2004)didsuggestthatthelowresponsesfromcariboutotrafficononehaulroadtoadrillsitecomparedtoaroadwithalowerfrequencyoftrafficwasthefromgreateropportunitiesforhabituation.However,atleastforborealcaribou,memoryand‘localknowledge’oftheirhomerangeswasfoundtoexplainmuchaboutthecariboumovementsandhabitatselection(VanMoorteretal.,2009,Oliveira-Santosetal.,2015).Theimportanceofcaribou’slearningandmemorymayrelatetotheinitialresponseswhenthecariboubecomeresidentinanareaforthewinter–stringentmitigationtominimizebehaviouraldisturbanceandstressmayreduceresponsesforthedurationoftheresidency.Thisisalsoanargumentforseparatingharvestingfromindustrialdisturbances.

ThePorcupineherdhasalreadybeenexposedtoexplorationactivitiesneartheDempsterHighwayanditisunknownhowthoseexperienceshavealreadyinfluencedtheirbehaviour.ThePorcupinecaribouhavebeenintermittentlyexposedtooilandgasactivitysince1959and38wells(25onNorthernCrossYukonleases)havebeendrilledand4,262kmof2Dseismiclineshavebeencutsincetheearly1960s(Andersonetal.,2002).Recently,in2012and2013,NCYdrilledfourexplorationwellsandduringthewinterof2013/2014,NCYconducteda325km23Dseismicprogramwhichlargelyoverlappedthe1990-91burnareas-thelineswere75%<2.5mwide.Althoughtheseismicprojectwasmonitored,mitigationwasnotmonitoredforeffectiveness.

7.8.3 StressLittleattentionhasbeenpaidtostressasaresponsetoindustrialdisturbancealthoughitcanbesampledwithouthandlingthecaribou(Jolyetal.,2015).Bothnutritionalstressand‘fear’stresswerefoundinmeasurableforms(hormones)infecalpellets;andinAlaska,highernutritionalstresswasfoundinfecalpelletsampleswithin16kmoftheRedDogMineroadwhichiswhereroaddusthasaffectedvegetation(Jolyetal.,2015).

Caribouinborealforestorpost-fireshrubsaremostlyhiddenandactivityscanstoadequatelymeasurecaribouresponsesaretechnicallydifficult.Measuringstresswouldbeauseful

monitoringindicatorwiththresholdvaluestodeterminewhethermitigationtoreducebehaviourresponsesisappropriate.

7.8.4 ImplicationsofcollectivebehaviourThecharacteristicofmigratorytundracaribouistheircollectivebehaviour–theydothingsingroupsandgroupsizeinfluencestheirbehavioursuchascrossingsuccessofroadsorpipelines(Lawheadetal.,2006).Thereareinformationgapsbothinhowgroupsizeinfluencescrossingsuccess,andhowgroupsizeorindividualsareusedtomeasurecrossingsanddeterminethresholds.Thistendencysuggeststhatthedefinitionofcrossingsuccessbasedon>50%oftheindividualsinagroupcrossingisreasonable(Lawheadetal.,2006).However,ERMRescan(2014)reportedthatusingcamerasattheEkatidiamondminerevealednoeffectofgroupsizeonsusceptibilitytoheavyorlightvehicles(i.e.,bothlargeandsmallgroupsbehavedsimilartopotentialvehiclesdisturbances).ThedifferencesbetweenAlaskaandtheN.W.T.suggestthatmoreeffortisneededtounderstandhowgroupsizeaffectsresponsestodisturbanceandhowtosetthresholds.

7.8.5 EnvironmentaltrendsandvariationThereisnoconsistentorrecognizedwaytoensurethatclimateandweatherareincludedasacontributiontoannualandseasonalvariationsinbehaviouralresponses.Trendsinweatherandvegetation,especiallyforage,willinfluenceboththeexposureandthesensitivityofcariboutoindustrialexplorationanddevelopment.Forageavailabilitymademoreenergeticallyexpensivetoacquireorforagequalityaffectedbyweatheraffectthenutritionalstatusofcaribouandtheirresponsestoindustrialactivities.Likewisesnowdepthandcondition(density,hardness)willaffectcariboutimingandrateoftravel.However,theserelationshipsarerarelyexploredinbaselineinformationorhowtherelationshipscouldmodifymonitoringandmitigationeffectiveness.

7.8.6 LinkingdifferentscalesofabundancemonitoringTherearealimitednumberofmonitoringmethodsusedtodocumentcaribouabundancenearindustrialdevelopmentandactivity.Ontheground,thereareincidentalorsystematicroadsurveys,height-of-landsurveys,remotecameraandsnowtracksurveys.Atabroaderscalethereareaerialsurveys,usuallyinadefinedzoneofinfluencefrominfrastructure.Atthecoarsestscaleareradiotrackingofmarkedindividualsintheherd.Areviewofmostmonitoringreportsindicatesthattherearefewinstanceswherethereisanattempttolinkthevariousscales.InthecaseofNCYmuchofthecommentsarerelatedtosignificantnumberofcaribouandhowtomonitornumbers.Themostcontentiousissuewasthenecessityofconductingaerialsurveys,presumablyrelatedtocost,giventhedistanceoftheprojectfromanyfixed-wingbase.InthecaseofNCYiftherewerearelationshipbetweentracksurveys,roadsurveysandcollarlocations,itwouldbepossibletoassignanestimateofthenumberofcaribouwithintheZOIwithassociatedconfidencelimits.

7.9 Habitat Management TheNorthYukonLandUsePlan(NYLUP)providesthebasisforlandusedesignationsformuchoftheYukonportionofthesummer,fall,winterandspringrangesofthePCH.Theyet-to-finalizedPeelandDawsonplanninginitiativesencompassregionssouthofNYLUPboundariesandwearenotawarefthelevelofprotectionthatwillbeidentifiedforwinterrangessouthoftheNYLUPboundaries.LandsnorthoftheNYLUPboundarieshavestrongconservationregimesinplacethroughIvvavikandVuntutnationalparks,OldCrowFlatsSpecialManagementAreasandtheNorthYukonLandWithdrawal,anareathathasnotbeenavailableforlanddispositionandresourceexplorationsince1978.The78,000sq.km.ArcticNationalWildlifeRefugecurrentlyprotectsmostofthecalving,summer,fallandspringAlaskanrangesofthePCH,althoughtheU.S.CongresscanallowdevelopmentwithincriticalcalvinggroundswithANWR(see“1002issue”below).

7.9.1 ConformitytoNYLUP TheNYLUPpresentslandscapeatfourlevels-fromZoneI,withthelowestdevelopmentasthe“managementintent,”toZoneIVwithhighestdevelopmentasits“managementintent.”“Surfaceandlinear”disturbancethresholdsquantifyazone“tolerance”fordevelopment.Essentiallythereis10xmoredevelopmenttoleratedinZoneIVthanZoneIbeforereachingeithercautionaryorcriticalthresholds.TheproposeddevelopmentbyNCYfallsentirelywithintheZoneIVdesignation.

Theplandesignatescautionaryindicatorlevelsasanearlywarningsignal.Whenthesecautionaryindicatorsarereached,therespectivegovernmentsshouldshareinformationandreviewthehealthofthekeyecologicalvalues,andifrequired,determinethemanagementoptionstominimizeandmitigateimpacts.Criticalindicatorlevelsrepresentthepointwheretheindicatorsmayhavereachedorsurpassedacceptablelevels.

Intheir“conformitycheck”theYukonLandUsePlanningCouncilindicatedthatwiththeadditionofnewandproposeddevelopment,theregionwasstillwellbelowcautionaryorcriticalthresholds.Thesesub-thresholdlevels,however,werepossiblebyassuming20%ofseismiclineswere“recovered”andthatinnon-forestedlandscapes,lineardisturbancewasnolongernecessary.SpecificallytheNYLUPstates:“…ashuman-causedsurfacedisturbances,includinglinearfeatures,recoverthroughnaturalre-vegetationoractivereclamation,theyaresubtractedfromthetotalamountofdisturbedarea.Asaguide,human-causedsurfacedisturbanceisconsideredrecoveredwhenitnolongerfacilitatestraveloraccessbywildlifeandpeople.Inforestedareas,afeaturecanbeconsideredrecoveredwhenitcontainswoodyvegetation(treesandshrubs)approximately1.5metresinheight.”ThisdefinitioniscloselylinkedwithhumanandpredatoraccessandpotentialeffectsonPorcupinecaribouandmoose,keyvaluesintheregion.Interveners,notablytheNacho-NyakDunFirstNation,questionedthedramatic(67%)reductioninexistinglinearfeaturesandthatiftheoriginalvalues,reportedintheNYLUPwereusednewandproposeddevelopedwouldreachatleastthecautionarylevel.

Althoughingeneralanincreaseinlinearfeaturesrelatetoincreasedpotentialdisturbancetocaribou,therelationshipiscomplex.Cariboureacttoazoneofinfluence,whichaccordingtoJohnsonandRussell(2014)iscurrently6kmforseismiclinesandareasoflowhumanuse.Thusthespatialeffectofseismiclines(i.e.theareaofthelandscapethatfallswithinazoneofinfluenceisamoredirectmeasureofpotentialimpactsoncaribou.Forexample,denselineardevelopmentinonesmallsectionofadefinedlandscapewouldhaveamuchlowerimpactoncariboucomparedtothesameamountoflineardevelopmentscatteredthroughoutthelandscape.IntheearliercasemuchoftheZOIlinearfeatureswouldoverlap.

Totestwhethertheremovedlinearfeaturespotentialreducetheexposureofseismiclinestocaribou,wewouldrecommendduplicatingJohnsonandRussell’s(2014)analysisfor:1)allseismiclines;and2)non-forestedlinesremoved.Ifthezoneofinfluenceexpandswiththeremovalthenthereislogicinremovingnon-forested;howeveriftheZOIstaysthesameorisreducedthentheroleofnon-forestedseismiclinesneedstobereconsidered.

7.9.2 The“1002”issueSuperimposedonalltheselandusedesignationsisaninternationalagreementsignedbyCanadaandU.S.fortheconservationofthePorcupineCaribouHerd.Thetreatyoutlinesanumberofprovisionstoensurecooperationandconsultationonhabitatissuesbetweenthejurisdictions.

LandswithintheArcticNationalWildlifeRangeinAlaska(1002lands)containsomeofthehighestpotentialforoilandgasreservesinAlaska.Thereferencefor1002comesfromtheAlaskaNationalInterestLandsConservationAct(ANILCA)legislationpassedin1980.Section1002oftheActstatesthatstudiesweretobedonetodeterminethevalueoftheareatothePCH(amongotherresources)andthepotentialforoilandgasactivity.ThesestudiesweretobeevaluatedbyCongress,whichwouldthendecidewhetherornottoopentheareaupfordevelopment.Thosestudieswerecompletedin1987(andmanyareongoing),but,todate,noCongresscouldpasslegislationtoopentheareafordevelopment.

Therelevanceofthe1002landsissuetoEaglePlainsoilandgasdevelopmentisthatwhenthecumulativeeffectsofdevelopmentarefullyassessedfortheherdonbothsidesoftheborder,strictermanagementdemandsmaybeappliedgiventhepotentiallylargeimpactofactivitywithintheherd’sprimarycalvinggrounds.Further,CanadaandYukonandthePCMB,representedontheInternationalPorcupineCaribouBoard,willhaveanopportunitytocriticallycommentontheproposeddevelopmentanditisimportantthatwehavedemonstratedduediligenceinanydevelopmentsofthissideoftheborder.

Conservation provisions in the International Porcupine Caribou Agreement

a. The Parties will take appropriate action to conserve the Porcupine Caribou Herd and its habitat.

b. The Parties will ensure that the Porcupine Caribou Herd, its habitat and the interests of users of Porcupine Caribou are given effective consideration in evaluating proposed activities within the range of the Herd.

c. Activities requiring a Party’s approval having a potential impact on the conservation of the Porcupine Caribou Herd or its habitat will be subject to impact assessment and review consistent with domestic laws, regulations and processes.

d. Where an activity in one country is determined to be likely to cause significant long-term adverse impact on the Porcupine Caribou Herd or its habitat, the other Party will be notified and given an opportunity to consult prior to final decision.

e. Activities requiring a Party’s approval having a potential significant impact on the conservation or use of the Porcupine Caribou Herd or its habitat may require mitigation.

f. The Parties should avoid or minimize activities that would significantly disrupt migration or other important behaviour patterns of the Porcupine Caribou Herd or that would otherwise lessen the ability of users of Porcupine Caribou to use the Herd.

g. When evaluating the environmental consequences of a proposed activity, the Parties will consider and analyze potential impacts, including cumulative impacts, to the Porcupine Caribou Herd, its habitat and affected users of Porcupine Caribou.

7.10 Harvest management Aswellasmanaginghabitats,aneffectiveharvestmanagementstrategycanimprovetheadaptivecapacityofthehuman/caribousystem.Harvestmanagementcanalsobeamitigationstrategyasharvestingalongaroadmayintensifythecaribouresponsestovehiclesontheroad.Roadscanfacilitateaccessforharvesting.

Managingpartiesinthemid-2000s,assumingthePCHpopulationwasindeclinebutunabletoverifybecauseofaseriesofpopulationcountfailures,designedandimplementedaHarvestManagementStrategywhichsetsthresholdsthatactastriggersforasetofharvestrestrictions.Everyyearpartiesmeet,exchangemonitoringinformationandmakeanyharvestrecommendationstheyfeelwarrantedwithrespecttothethresholdsestablished.ManagersofthePCHarethusfortunatecomparedtoeasterncounterpartsinthatalthoughharvestregulationhasbeenimplemented,thoseregulationswereconsiderablelessstringentthanregulationsandvoluntaryrestraintsimposedonothermigratoryherds.

AccessmanagementnecessitatedbyallseasonandwinterroadswasaconcernformanyintervenersduringtheNCYreviewprocess.Althoughsomegroupsmaintainedthatrestrictingaccesstotraditionalhuntingareaswasnotlegal,manyfeltthataccessshouldbegatedforsafetyandconservationreasons.Huntinglikelyincreasestheresponsivenessofcariboutootherhumanactivitiesincludingoilandgassupportactivities.

NCYdiscussedthedevelopmentofabaselinestudyofhuntingactivityintheEaglePlainsareainthemiddleofwinter.ThePCMBmaintainedthatcareshouldbetakentoensurestudydesignissoundandthatactualbaselineconditionsarebeingcaptured.Furthertheysaidthatthestudyshouldbelong-termandshouldbedevelopedinconjunctionwithaCaribouWorkingGroup.Inourreviewweonlyfoundonestudydesignedtoidentifyhuntingpatternsbeforeandafterdevelopmentaccesswasinitiated–aspatialharvestmonitoringprograminitiatedbyAgnicoEagleforitsMeadowbankgoldmineinNunavut,eastofthecommunityofBakerLake.

7.10.1 Harvestmonitoringcasestudy:AgnicoEagle InMarch2007,AgnicoEagleinitiatedtheBakerLakeHunterHarvestStudyinassociationwiththeBakerLakeHunter’sandTrapper’sOrganizationtomonitoranddocumentthespatialdistribution,seasonalpatterns,andharvestratesofhunterkillsbeforeandafterconstructionoftheMeadowbankAll-WeatherAccessRoad(AWAR).

Harveststudystaffvisitshuntersonaquarterlybasistodocumentharvests(whicharewrittenontheprovidedannualhunterharvestcalendar),anddiscussgeneralhuntingtrendsandobservations.Staffalsoconductradioaddressesandpost-promotionalmaterialaroundBakerLakeduringthequarterlyvisits.AgnicoEaglealsohadtheadvantageofa10-yrcomprehensiveharveststudyconductedthroughoutNunavutthatnotonlyquantifiedannualharvestratesbutalsothelocationsofthoseharvest.Thusinanalysingtheirharvestdatatheywereabletocomparepre-construction(pre2007)withpost-construction.

Todeterminewhethertherewasashiftinharvestlocationduetotheroad,wecomparedtrendsinthepercentofBakerLakeharvestwithinaLocalStudyArea(2-kmzonearoundAWAR)toalargerRegionalStudyArea(25-kmzonearoundAWAR).ThepercentharvestintheLocalStudyAreaincreasedfrom7%to34%whileintherestoftheRegionalStudyAreathepercentharvestdeclinedfrom60%to50%.ThusintheentireRegionalStudyArea(includingtheLocalStudyArea)thepercentofharvesttrendhasbeenincreasingandthatpercentincreaseisdisproportionatelyincreasingwithintheLocalStudyArea(by500%).

Theseresultsaretheclearevidenceontheissueofaccess.Intheirinitialprojectcertificatetheroadwasdesignatedasaprivateroadthatwouldaccommodateharvesting.However,underpressuretheBakerLakecertificatedesignationwaschangedtoapublicroad(althoughgatedandmanned).Althoughthereisprovisionallyaone-kmnohuntingzoneontheAWAR,therewasnoevidenceofenforcement.

8 Specific questions EnergyMinesandResourcesaskedusfourspecificquestionsthatareansweredinthefollowingsection.Thereisnoblackandwhiteanswersasthereareuncertaintiesandunknownsasidentifiedbelow.Wesuggestthatacollaborativecumulativeimpactsanalysisexaminethedifferentscenariosthatshouldintegrateoptionsforthetimingandamountof,forexample,drillingwithannualvariationsinweatherandencounterrates.Theresultingprojectionsofindividualcondition(bodyweight,survivalandpregnancy)andherdsizewouldthenguidedecisionsaboutthescenariosaretheleastrisky,answersquestionsabouttheintensityofdevelopmentandprovideinformationtohelpstakeholders.

8.1.1 Shoulddrillingbecompletedinfeweryearsorovertime?Theanswerisconjecturaluntilthebaselineinformationoncaribouabundanceandtrendsin,forexample,snowdepthsareintegrated.Abaselineanalyseswoulddescribetheannualvariationofcaribouexposureandforexample,ifitwereadeepsnowyearandmostofthePorcupineherdwinteredelsewhereotherthanEaglePlains,thenitwouldmakesensetodrillasmanywinterwellsaspossiblewhenthecaribouareabsentorpresentinreducednumbers.CariboumigrationmovementsintotheprojectareaoccurinOctoberthroughDecembermakedecisionsmorechallenging.Thisperiodalsocoincideswithapeakinhuntingactivity.

AquestionisaboutNorthernCross’soperationalflexibility-howquicklycanacompanytoolupordowntoadjusttothecariboudistributionwithinasingleseason?Asecondquestionaboutoperationalflexibilityiswhetherflowtestingcanbedoneinlessthan2yearsorcanbestaggeredifalargenumberofcaribouwerepresentinthe2ndyear.ThebaselineinformationalsosuggeststhatthecaribouencounterrateisreducedeastoftheDempsterHighwaythatsuggeststhattimingofthewellseastandwestofthehighwaycouldbeusedasmitigation.Anotherfactoriswhetherthecaribouarelessresponsivetoamoderatelevelofdisturbance(threedrillsperwinterfor2yearsorsixwellsinonewinter)withassumptionsaboutinter-

annualvariabilityinweathersuchassnowconditions.Thiscouldbeexaminedthroughenergeticandpopulationmodellingwhichhasnotyetbeenundertaken.

8.1.2 ProsandconsofseasonaldrillingThechoicecomesdowntothepotentialfordisturbingcaribouduringawinteroperationcomparedtonoexposuretocaribouduringasummerseason,butthecreationandlongtermpresenceofall-seasonaccesstoportionsofthePCHrange.WinteroperationsareprojectedtostartinDecemberandendinmid-April,overlappingwithwinterresidencyandspringmigrationforthecaribou.SummerworkisearlyMayuntillateOctoberwhichwouldoverlapwithfallmigration.InitiallyNCYindicatedthattheywouldnotrequireall-seasonroadstodrillthewells,howeverthroughaseriesofInformationRequestsessionstheirplansslowlyshiftedto6winterwellsand14summerwellsoverfrom2to8years.Thusbasedontheproposedoperationseasons,caribouwouldbeexposedtoactivitiesinbothasummerandwinterseasonunlessthesummerseasonendedbeforeOctoberitwouldoverlapwithfallmigration.Fromouranalysis,Octoberiscurrentlythesinglemostfrequentlyoccupiedmonthinthebufferzoneandwiththegreatestnumberofcollars.ThereforeensuringnoactivityinOctoberwouldallowmostofthecariboutoenterthedevelopmentzonewithoutbeingdisturbed.

Asignificantconsiderationisissueofthewinterorall-seasonroadsandincreasedaccesstothearea.Winteroperationsonlyreducethelengthofall-seasonroadsdependingonwhichwellsareunsuccessful,assuccessfulwellswillrequireall-seasonroadsforflowtesting.Theroadsaresevenmetreswidewitha150m-longpassingbayaboutevery750m;the19spurroadstotal65kmandeachroadaverages3.4km.All-seasonroadsfragmentthecaribouwinterhabitatandtheeffectoncariboucrossingsuccessandhabitatuseisunknown.Basedonoutknowledgeofcaribouecologythereisastrongerpreferenceforshorttermdisturbancecomparedtolong-termaccess,sowewouldrecommendthatNorthernCrosssticktoit’soriginalplantoexploratorydrillinthewinterseason.WithoutspatialanalysisandriskanalysisofthelikelyexposureofthePorcupineherdtotheproposedtotal87-kmroad(605km2)withintheareaisuncertain.ItisalsouncertaintheeffectsofaddingtheNorthernCrossprojecttraffictothe>200vehicles/dayontheDempsterHighway.

8.1.3 BMPsformigratingversuswinteringresidentcaribou?Whethermitigationforwinterresidentcariboucomparedtomigrating(fallorspring)caribouwillbedifferentisspeculativewithoutamoredetailedanalysisoftheexposureincludingthedailyratesofmovement.Migratorymovementstypicallyareatahigherdailyrateandmoredirectional(towardadestination).However,atthedailytimescale,distinguishingbetweenthetwotypesofmovementisdifficult.Thedifferencesforresidentversusmigratorycariboumaybethethresholdsformitigationastheactionsarerelativelylimited(suchastherateandspeedofvehiclepassage).However,asfallmigrationisinOctober-earlyNovemberbeforethestartofthewinter-drillingandthelackofsignificantmovementsthroughthezoneduringspringmigrationtwomitigationstrategiesmaynotbenecessary.Fallmigrationisadifferenttypeof

exposurethanwinterresidencyasitusuallyinvolvesfaster-movingcariboufollowingeachother,whichimposesadifferentlikelihoodofencounterrates.Inthatcase,thepriorityformitigationistolettheleaderspassandtominimizedisturbancetopreventaversiveconditioningofthecaribouearlyinthewinter.Accessmanagementtoreducetheprobabilityofaddingtothedisturbancewouldbeadvisableespeciallyasmosthuntingisduringfallandspring(M.Suiterpers.comm.).

Incomparison,residentcaribouwouldlikelyhaveadiffusemovementpatternmorepredictablefromthevegetationcovertypesincludingburnareasandtheireffectonsnowdepth.Residentcaribouwouldhavealowerrateofdailymovementsandmorepredictableuseoftheirtrailsinthesnow.ThissuggestsahigherdegreeoflikelihoodofencounterswithNorthernCrossactivities.Themorepredictablethedrillcampactivities,thegreaterthelikelihoodthatthecariboucanhabituate,whichsuggeststhatoff-roadactivities(people,snowmobiles,etc)shouldbeminimized.

Theclumpingofthewellstobedrilledinwinterrelativetothemappedmovementsofthesatellite-collaredcaribousuggeststhatexposurewilllikelybedifferentwestandeastoftheDempsterHighway,whichwillaffectmitigationandmonitoring.Figure28isthecumulativepathwaysofthecollaredcaribouduringfallmigration,winterandspring.However,cautionisneededascaribouareseeneastoftheDempsterHighwaypossiblyinpartbecausecaribouaremoreeasilyseenintheburnstotheeastofthehighway(M.Suiterpers.comm.).

Figure28MovementpathsofthePCHthrougha30-kmbufferaroundproposedNCYinfrastructure(1985-2016).

Whilewehavecompiledaflowchart(Figure29)toillustrateprogressivemonitoringandmitigationdrawingonthereviewcommentsforNorthernCross,andfromourexperiencewithmonitoringandmitigationintheliterature,weacknowledgethatitisillustrativeratherthandefinitive.Wesuggestthatdevisingmonitoringandmitigationisbestservedbymoreanalysisofthebaselineexposureandsensitivity,andthenacollaborativeapproach.

Figure29SuggestedmitigationflowchartforNCYproject

8.1.4 SignificantnumberofcaribouandsafeoperatingdistanceAsurveyoftheliteraturefoundnumbersbutlittleobjectiverationaleforsafeoperatingdistancesinrelationtothenumberofcaribouandevenlesstestingoftheeffectivenessoftheproposedthresholdsforcaribounumbersanddistances.Theconceptisthatascaribouapproachhumanactivity,thepotentialfordisturbanceincreasesthecloserthecaribouaretothedisturbance(safeoperatingdistance)andthenumberofcaribouapproaching(significantnumberofcaribou).Wehavetriedtoapproachthisissueobjectively.ThusinFigure28,weascribetheearlywarningtriggerascollarsthatare3daystravelfromthedevelopmentactivity.Thisvaluevariesseasonally(Figure28)and,forexamplecanbeashighas42kminOctobertoaslowas6kminMarch.Althoughtheconceptisobjective,settingthewarningzoneas3daystravelmaynotbeappropriateoperationally.IftheimplicationsofaLevel1triggerinvolveadjustmentstooperationalproceduresand3daysisnotenoughwarning,thisvaluemayneedtobeincreased.Acollarisasampleoftheherdandthemorecollars,themoreconfidencethatthecollaredsamplesrepresentthetruedistributionoftheherd(seesection7.5.2).

Limitationsintherelianceoncollaredcariboumeananeedforothermonitoringsuchasaerialsurveys.Wefeelaerialsurveysaremostusefulifspecificallydesignedfordeterminingtheproximityofcaribou,relativetothenumberanddistributionofcollars.Howeveraerialsurveysarenotpracticalfortheshorttermmonitoringgiventhevagariesofweather,distancetoaircraftbase,andmovementratesofcaribou.Aprotocolthatlinksgroundsurveystocollardistributionwouldbemorereliableoperationalmonitoringmethod.Thuswehavereferencedatemplatefora“research”projectthatcouldbeconductedintheEaglePlainsregiontohelpquantifythatlink(seesection7.5.2).

Fromourreviewofpotentialimpacts,wesuggestthatthecloserthecariboutothesourceofdisturbance,thegreatertheirresponses.Height-of-landsurveysandtracksurveysshouldprovideanobjectiveestimateofcaribouincloseproximitytooilandgasactivities.In2013-14NCYestablishedanextensivenetworkof3Dseismiclinesthatsurroundthecurrentproposedwellsiteoperations.WewouldproposethatNCYinconsultationwithacaribouadvisorygroupdesignanoperationalplantousethe3Dseismiclinesfortracksurveys.Theseismiclinesaresuitedforthistypeofsurvey,althoughtheyareusedbyharvestersdespitethenarrowright-of-wayandpoorsightlines(M.Suitorpers.comm.)Inourproposedmitigationplan(Figure29)weinputnumbersfromthosesurveysthatcanactastriggers–however,actualnumberswouldhavetobedeterminedbythedesignofthetracksurveysandareavisibleonheight-of-landsurveys.Thekeyisthatthesurveysneedtobeconsistentandfrequentenoughtocapturere-distributionofcaribou(againtiedtoseasonalmovementratesandaverageresidencytime).

8.1.5 WhatisaneffectivemechanismforincludingaffectedFirstNationsandco-managementbodiesinanadaptivemanagementframework?

TheanswertothisquestionaboutBestManagementPracticesandadaptivemitigationliespartlywiththoseFirstNationsandco-managementbodiesthemselvesashowtheywanttobe

involvedandhowtohaveaccesstotechnicalcapacity.Ourrecommendationsincludeoneeffectivemechanism,whichistohavea‘body’suchasacommitteeorworkinggrouptohavetheexperienceofworkingtogethertodevelopBMPs.Wehavealsorecommendedtheneedforcommittee/workinggrouptohaveaccesstoinformation(suchasadatarepository)andthetechnicalcapacitytomakerecommendations.

9 Recommendations 1.Undertakeacumulativeeffectsanalysisusingtheapproachofvulnerabilityandbuilding

adaptivecapacitytodevelopmonitoringandmitigationrelativetoherdandlandscapemanagement.Varyingintensitiesofdevelopmentsuchassummerorwinterandmulti-yeardrillingwillbeexaminedasdifferentscenariostointegrateclimateandvegetationchanges.ThisanalysiswouldprovidetheframeworktosupportandrefineallthevariouscomponentsforBestManagementPractices,adaptivemitigationandmonitoringandprojectassessment.OverthelastnumberofyearsthePCMBhasfurtheredthecapabilitytoconductCumulativeEffectsanalysis,andthusshouldassumealeadroleintheprocess.

2.CreateaTechnicalWorkingGrouptooverseethemitigation/monitoringcycleforNorthernCross-coulduseflowchartsasStrawDogbeginningtogaintheexperienceofworkingtogetherondevelopingapproachestoadaptivemitigationandhowmonitoringcanimprovemitigation.UsetheoutputofthecumulativeeffectsassessmenttosupporttheWorkingGrouptodevelopspecificrecommendationsforadaptivemitigationsfortheNorthernCrossProjectincludingSafeOperatingDistances.

3.Developadatarepository-inlightofthelackofbaselinedata,inaccessible3DseismiccaribourelateddataandfuturedatafrompotentialNCYandothernorthcentralYukonoilandgasdevelopment,developadatarepositorythathasopenaccess(agoodexampleistheWildlifeManagementInformationSystem(WMIS)datarepositoryinNWT.Thereneedstobeadatamanagementprotocolbetweengovernmentsandindustrysothatdataisfreelyavailable.Werealizethatregionalofficesholddatabutthereisbenefittohaveamorecentralizeddatamanagementsystem.

4.CreateaCollaborativeAdvisoryCommitteetodrawupBestManagementPracticesforYukoncaribou.ThisadvisorycommitteecouldbecollaborationbetweenthePCMB(withthemandateforthePCH)andtheYukonFishandWildlifeManagementBoardwithadvisorymandateinotherregionsoftheYukon.

5.Undertakearetro-activeanalysisoftelemetrytoexaminerelativeratesanddirectionsofcaribourelativetotheDempsterHighwayandupdateanalysestopredictfallandwintermovementsfromclimate–especiallysnowfallandestimatetherangeofnaturalvariation.WerecommendthatamorefocusedanalysisbeconductedintheEaglePlainsareaforfall,winterandspringseasons.

6.Toprepareforfuturemonitoring,undertakeatestofcaribouonthegroundrelativetosatellitecollarstocalibratetherelationshipswithsnowtracks,height–of-landtowers,dronesand/orobservationalsurveys.

7.Validatetheexclusionofnon-forestseismictestingfromthresholdcalculations.Incorporatefindingfromseismic/remotecamerastudy(YukonEnvironmentandEMR).ConductafocusedRSFanalysiswithallhistoricversusreducedseismiclinestoseehoweliminatedseismiclinesaffectmodeloutput.

8.Roadmanagement:Implementaharveststudyorre-vitalizeacheckstationalongtheDempsterHighway.Thiswouldbuildamapofharvestlocationsandcaribousightingstocomparewithcollarlocationstore-examinethedatasuggestingthattheDempsterHighwayisafactorinPorcupineherdmovements.

10 Acknowledgements Theauthorswouldliketothankthefollowingpeoplefortheirdiscussionseitherinperson,onthephoneorthroughemailthroughouttheproject–LizSeers,BethLenart,DickSchiedler,LincolnParrett,KimPoole,GeoffClark,KirstieSimpson,CindyDickson,GregCharlie,MikeSetterington,LeaPigage,RonSumanik,RosieBrown,ReneeMayes,JimBell,andErikaTizya-Tramm.

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Appendix A: A summary of the Prudhoe Bay oilfield and the responses of the Central Arctic Herd (CAH)

AfrequentlycitedexampleofwhetheroilandgasdevelopmentarecompatiblewithmigratorycaribouistherelationshipbetweentheCAHandthePrudhoeBayoilfield.Thestoryunfoldsover35yearsduringwhichtimeourunderstandingofcaribouecologyandtechniquesincreasedastheoilfieldgrew.Whereavailable,wehavealsoincludedasummaryofmonitoringandmitigationoftheeffectsoftheoilfield.Whileinformationonthetimingandwestwardspread

ofthePrudhoeBayoilfieldisreadilyavailablesincethedeclineinoilproductionafterthepeakin19891,informationaboutwhatthedeclinefrompeakproductionmeansintermsofvehicleactivityetcislesseasilyfound.

Mostalltheaccountsofcariboubehaviourareinrelationtoroadsandpipelinesandfromcalvingthroughsummer.TheherdmigratesinlandtotheFoothillsforwinterbutencountersseismicoperationsandthehighwaywiththepipeline.However,responsesinfallandwintertoseismicoperationsandthehighwayarenotavailable.Theaccountsofcaribouresponsesrelatetorelativelyfinescaledistributionchangesincludingfewercowsandcalveswithin4-6kmofthehaulroadsandregionalshiftsincalving.However,methodschangedwhichaddedtodisputedresults(HaskellandBallard2008,Cameronetal.,2005,Lawheadetal.,2004,NRC2003forexample).

PrudhoeBayoilfield(86,418hectares):TheoilfieldwasthelargestoilfieldinNorthAmericaandhasmorethan1000wells.ItliesonStateofAlaskalandbetweenNationalPetroleumReserve(NPR)tothewestandArcticNationalWildlifeRefuge(ANWR)totheeast.Explorationbeganinthe1960s,productionstartedin1968.By1972,planningwasunderwayfora1,300-kmpipelinetoshiptheoiltoValdez.Concernsincludedwhethercariboucouldcrossthepipelineandtheassociatedhaulroad(DaltonHighway).Pipelineconstructionstartedin1975andwascompletedin1977.By1981,anincreasingnetworkofroadsandpipelinesextended70kmwestofPrudhoeBaytotheKuparukandMilnePointoilfields.

In1996,oilwasfoundwestofKuparakattheAlpinefieldontheColvilleRiverDelta54kmwestoftheKuparukFieldwhichstartedproducingin2000.TheAlpineoilisshippedthroughanelevatedpipelineconnectingAlpinetotheTrans-AlaskaPipelineSystem(TAPS)viatheKuparukPipelineSystem.AlpinehasnopermanentroadconnectingittootherNorthSlopeinfrastructure,therefore,inthewinter,aniceroadisbuiltconnectingKuparuktoAlpinetomoveinsuppliesfortherestoftheoperatingyear.Inanygivenwinterseasonmorethan1,500truckloadsofmodules,pipelineandequipmentaremovedtoAlpineovertheiceroad.PresumablytheseloadshaveaddedtothetrafficontheDaltonHighwayandthroughtheKuparukfield.In2001,ConocoPhillipsbegandevelopmentoftheMeltwateroilfield16kmsouthwestofKuparak.Meltwaterisonthewesternedgeofcalvingdistributionwhichraisedconcernsforthecaribouandledtospecificmitigationandmonitoringprogram(Lawheadetal.,2004).Lawheadetal.‘s2004three-yearstudyis,sofar,themostdetailedstudyofwhetherconvoyingtrafficona16kmroadtoaMeltwaterdrillsiteiseffectiveinreducingtheavoidanceofaroadonthecalvingandsummerrange.However,in2003,trafficfrequencywaslow-averaging2.4convoys(one-way)perdayand1.5vehiclesperconvoy.Thelowfrequencyoftrafficcomparedwithanadjoiningroadcausedmoderatebehaviouralresponsesespeciallybygroupswithcalvesoryearlingspossiblybecausethefrequencywastoolowforthecariboutohabituate.

FigureA1.MapofPrudhoeBayoilfields(fromBraundandAssociates2009)

TheCentralArcticherdwasrecognizedasadiscreteherdwithaninitialestimateof5,000caribouin1975.Thepreviouslycontinuousdistributionofcalvingrecordedinthe1970shadby1980becomedividedoneithersideofPrudhoeBayandSagavanirktokRiverandtheDaltonHighwayparalleledbytheTAPSasshownbyaerialsurveys.Withinthewesterncalvingdistribution,thedevelopmentanduseoftheMilneRoadastheKuparakoilfieldbecamedevelopeddividedthewesterncalvingdistribution(Cameronetal.,2005).Subsequentanalysesbasedonkernelanalysisofcollaredcaribou(2001-2006)showedalargeextentofcalvingwithtwoareasofconcentratedcalvingwestandeastoftheDaltonHighwayandPrudhoeBay.ThecalvingwestofPrudhoeBaythathadmovedmoreinlandappearedtohavelessfavourableforagingconditionsasthecalvesbornontheeasternsectionwereslightlyheavieratbirth(ArthurandDelVecchio2009).Comparingtheshiftsincalvingovertimeiscomplicatedbychangesintechniques.Themethodshaveincludedaerialsurveysintheproximityofroads(summarizedinNationalResearchCouncil2003,Cameronetal.,2005)andthenanalysisofradioandsatellitecollardistribution(kernelanalyses)(ArthurandDelVecchio2009).

Inthe1970s,Child(1973)reportedthatinsectactivityandgroupsizeinfluencedthelikelihoodthatcaribouwouldcrossundertheelevated(two-metre)pipeline.AsubsequentreviewoftheheightofelevatedpipelinesandcaribousuccessincrossingunderthemduringcalvingandsummerwasinitiatedastheoilfieldexpandedwestofPrudhoeBay(Lawheadetal.,2006).Thereviewshowedthatseparatingaroadfromanadjacentpipelinebyof>90mwillmaintaincariboucrossingsuccessinsummer(referencesinLawheadetal.,2004).Trafficfrequency<15

vehicles/hourwasassociatedwithhighercrossingsuccess.Theeffectofgroupsizeisuncertainasalthoughlargegroupsofcaribouhavedifficultycrossingpipeline/roadcorridors(referencesinLawheadetal.,2006),variationcausedbyinsectconditionsandtrafficlimitconclusions.

FortheCentralArcticHerd’scalvingdistribution,thestudieswerebasedonsystematicaerialsurveys.Radio-collaredcaribouandbehaviouralstudiesduringcalvingandpost-calvingweretheevidenceforcariboureducingtheirexposuretotheoilfieldactivitiesbylocalredistribution(4-6kmscale)toavoidroads,andtheoilfield(summarizedCameronetal.,2005;seealsoLawheadetal.,2003).However,thefindingswerecontested(summarizedinHaskelletal.,2008).Thealternateinterpretationswerebasedondifferencesintechniques(accuracyoflocationsrelativetothescaleofavoidance~1km);whethertrafficfrequencyhadchangedduringthedifferentstudies;andtheeffectoftimingofannualsnowmeltasafactorinfluencingthedistributionofthecalvingcaribou.Lawheadetal.,2006andHaskellandBallard(2008)havesuggestedthatreducedbehaviouralresponsivenessofcariboufromtheCAHovertime(habituation)mayalsobearesponsetothelackofpredationandhunting(Lenart2013).

Afterthemid-1990s,theemphasisshiftedfromdocumentingcariboubehaviourrelativetotheoilfieldtomonitoringthechangesinherdabundanceandvitalrates.Theresearchdidleadtoherdmanagementobjectivesandmitigationtoreducetheeffectsoftheoilfielddevelopment.Theobjectivesweretominimizedisturbancetocaribouandencouragefreepassagethroughtheoilfield(Lenart2001)althoughthesuccessofthosemeasuresisunmeasured(Lenart2013).Theobjectivesalsoincludedmaintainingalowrateofharvesting.

Theherdmonitoringrevealedthattheherdhadincreasedfrom5,000in1975to23,000caribouin1992and27,000in2000.By1991,asotherherdsininteriorAlaskahaddeclinedandtheDaltonHighwaywasopenedtopublictrafficin1991,theharvestsontheCAHincreasedbutremained<2%oftheherd.Themanagementfortheherdwastoworkwiththeoilindustrytominimizedisturbancetocariboumovementfromphysicalbarriersandtoreducecumulativestressbyreducinghuntingadjacenttotheoilfieldandthehaulroad.AlthoughtheDaltonHighwaywasopenedtothepublicin1991,thehighwaywasgatedtolimitaccesstothePrudhoeBayoilfield.AlongthehighwaynorthtotheYukonRiver,aneight-kmzoneoneithersideofthehighwayisclosedtohuntingandtheuseofoffroadvehicles(exceptontheroad).

Theherdcontinuedtoincreaseafter2000andlikelypeakedbetween2008and2012at68,442(6,420SE)in2010(Lenart2015).Theincreasewasduetolowadultmortalityincludingalowharvestlevel(<3%2000-2012),highparturitionrates(≥85%),andhighfallcalfsurvival(≥50calves:100cows)during1998–2010(Lenart2015).However,inMay2013,alatespringwasassociatedwithhigheradultandyearlingfemalesdeathsrates,reflectedinthe2013photocensusestimatewhichrevealedadeclineto50,753(4,345SE),whichcontinuedasby2016theestimatewasonly22,000caribou.

NationalPetroleumReserve-Alaska(NPR-A):Alaska’sNationalPetroleumReservehasparallelstoYukonLandUsePlanzonesasitisanareawithpriorityforoilandgasdevelopment.

In1923,alargeNavalPetroleumReservewasestablishedinnorthernAlaskaandrenamedtheNationalPetroleumReserve-Alaska(NPR-A)in1976.TheintentoftheNPR-Aistoallowforoilandgasleasingwhileprovidingprotectionforspecifichabitatsandsite-specificresourcesandusesthroughleasestipulationsandrequiredoperatingprocedures/bestmanagementpractices.TwoAlaskanherdsofmigratorytundracaribou(WesternArcticandTeshepukherds)calveandsummerwithintheNPR-A.TheCentralArcticHerdcalvespartiallywithinintensivelydevelopedoilfieldsandthePorcupineCaribouHerdcalveswithinlandsofasyetundeterminedtenure(oilandgasdevelopmentorwilderness).

TwoSpecialAreaswithintheNPR-Arelatetocaribou:theTeshekpukLakeSpecialArea(whichincludedtheTeshelpukherd’scalvinggroundsaswellaswaterfowlbreedingandmoltingareas);andtheUtukokRiverUplandsSpecialAreawhichincludedportionsoftheWesternArcticHerd’scalvinggrounds.InthoseSpecialAreasoilandgasexplorationwillbeundertakento“assurethemaximumprotectionofsuchsurfacevaluestotheextentconsistentwiththerequirementsoftheActforexplorationofthereserve”(42USC§6504citedinBLM2012).Theregulationsincludeprotectionthroughrestricting,orprohibitingtheuseofandaccessthroughaseriesofland-useplans.

In1998,theBureauofLandManagement(BLM)completedaplanforthenortheastNPR-Awhichwasthenamendedduringthenext7years.BLM’sdecisioninJanuary2006wouldhaveopeneduptheareaaroundTeshepukLake(thepreviouslyrecognizedSpecialArea)foroilandgasleasing.AlthoughtheSpecialAreawasopenforoilandgasleases,thecalvinggroundsandpost-calvingcoastalareaswereincludedinaLandUseEmphasisAreaCaribouZone.Themonitoringandmitigationstipulations(BLM2005;IntegratedActivityPlanandassociatedEnvironmentalImpactStatement;AppendixE)includedtheneedforathree-yearstudyofherdmovementsbeforepermanentfacilitiescouldbeconstructed;restrictionsonvehicleandaircraftoperations;andMay20andAugust20suspensionsofheavyactivities.

However,agroupofconservationorganizationsarguedincourtthatthemeasureswouldbeineffectiveandthattheTeshekpukLakeSpecialAreashouldnotbeopenedforleasing(Singleton2006).TheconservationorganizationswhichtookBLMandtheU.S.FishandWildlifeServicetocourtraisedseveralissues,butthecourtwasonlysatisfiedwithargumentsovertheinadequatescopeofthecumulativeeffectsanalysesandruledagainstoilandgasleasesintheTeshekpukLakeSpecialArea(Singleton2006).

TheU.S.DepartmentoftheInterior(2012)releasedanupdatedIntegratedActivityPlan/EnvironmentalImpactStatementcomparingalternativeareasanddevelopment.Thesedocumentsincludesmitigationmeasuresforpublicconsiderationandcomment.TheBLM’srecordofdecisionidentifieswhichmitigationmeasuresarerequired.TheTeshekpukLakeSpecialAreaandtheUtukokRiverUplandsSpecialAreaareexcludedfromleasinguntil2018and2014(?????),respectively.However,theplandoesacknowledgethatexplorationactivity(seismicandtestdrilling)mayoccuronthewinterrangeoftheTeshepukherd.Whenthelands

areofferedforleasing,environmentaleffectsareassessedandmitigationisprescribed.Asallfishandwildlifeandsocio-economicsareconsidered,thereisnotagreatdealofdetail:

1g.Pipelinesshallbedesignedandconstructedtominimizealterationofcaribouandotherlargeungulatemovementandmigrationpatterns.Ataminimum,above-groundpipelinesshallbeelevatedsevenfeet,asmeasuredfromthegroundtothebottomofthepipe,exceptwherethepipelineintersectsaroad,pad,orarampinstalledtofacilitatewildlifepassage.Lesseesshallconsiderincreasedsnowdepthinthesaleareainrelationtopipeelevationtoensureadequateclearanceforwildlife.ADNRmay,afterconsultationwithADF&G,requireadditionalmeasurestomitigateimpactstowildlifemovementandmigration.

3c.Exploratorydrillingoperationsmayberestrictedduringthefallcariboumigration(August1throughOctober31)intheChandler,Nanushuk,Itkillik,Kuparuk,andAnaktuvukRivervalleystoallowforsubsistencehunting.

3d.Explorationactivitiesmayberestrictedduringfallcariboumigration(August1throughOctober31);andthesitingofpermanentfacilities,exceptforroadsorpipelines,willbeprohibitedintheChandler,Anaktuvuk,Nanushuk,Itkillik,andKuparukRivervalleys,unlessthelesseedemonstratestothesatisfactionoftheDirector,inconsultationwiththeNSB,thatthedevelopmentwillnotprecludereasonablesubsistenceuseraccesstocaribou.

ADNR(AlaskaDepartmentofNaturalResources).2011.NorthSlopeFoothillsAreawideoilandgasleasesales:FinalfindingoftheDirector.May26,2011.http://www.dog.dnr.state.ak.us/oil/

Arthur,S.M.andP.A.DelVecchio.2009.EffectsofoilfielddevelopmentoncalfproductionandsurvivalintheCentralArcticherd.AlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame,FederalAidinWildlifeResoration.FinalResearchTechnicalReport.GrantsW-27-5ANDW-33-1throughW-33-4.Project3.46.Juneau,Alaska,USA.

Braund,StephenR.&Associates.2009.ImpactsandBenefitsofOilandGasDevelopmenttoBarrow,Nuiqsut,Wainwright,andAtqasukHarvesters.PreparedfortheNorthSlopeBoroughDepartmentofWildlifeManagement.

Braund,StephenR.Braund&Associates.2013.AggregateEffectsResearchandEnvironmentalMitigationMonitoringofOilIndustryOperationintheVicinityofNuiqsut:HistoryandAnalysisofMitigationMeasures,FinalReport.PreparedfortheU.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,AlaskaOCSRegion,Anchorage,AK.TechnicalReportNo.BOEM2013-212.

Cameron,R.D.,Smith,W.T.,White,R.G.&Griffith,B.2005:CentralArcticCaribouandpetroleumdevelopment:distributional,nutritional,andreproductiveimplications.-Arctic58:1-9.

Haskell,S.P.andW.B.Ballard.2008.Annualre-habituationofcalvingcariboutooilfieldsinnorthernAlaska:implicationsforexpandingdevelopment.Can.J.Zool.86:627-637.

Lawhead,B.E.,J.Prichard,M.J.MacanderandM.Emers.2004.CariboumitigationmonitoringfortheMeltwaterproject,2003.Thirdannualreport.UnpublishedReportpreparedforConocoPhillipsAlaska,Inc.ABR,Inc.,Fairbanks.

Lawhead,B.,J.P.Parrett,A.K.Prichard,andD.A.Yokel.2006.ALiteratureReviewandSynthesisontheEffectofPipelineHeightononCaribouCrossingSuccess.www.blm.gov/style/medialib/blm/ak/aktest/ofr.Par.21228.File.dat/OFR106.pdf

Lawhead,B.E.,J.PrichardandJ.E.Welch.2013.MammalsurveysinthegreaterKuparukarea,2013.UnpublishedFinalReportpreparedforConocoPhillipsAlaska,Inc.ABR,Inc.,Fairbanks.

Lenart,E.A.2001.Units26Band26Ccaribou.Pages219–389[In]C.Healey,editor.Cariboumanagementreportofsurveyandinventoryactivities1July2010–30June2000.AlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame,SpeciesManagementReport3.0,Juneau.

Lenart,E.A.2015.Units26Band26Ccaribou.Chapter18,pages18–1through18–38[In]P.HarperandL.A.McCarthy,editors.Cariboumanagementreportofsurveyandinventoryactivities1July2012–30June2014.AlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame,SpeciesManagementReportADF&G/DWC/SMR-2015-4,Juneau.

NationalResearchCouncil.2003.CumulativeEnvironmentalEffectsofOilandGasActivitiesonAlaska’sNorthSlope(March2003).452pp.(See[http://www.nas.edu/].)

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Singleton,J.K.2006.MemorandumdecisionNationalAudubonSoc’yv.Kempthorne,Caseno.1:05-cv-00008-jks,UnitedStatesDistrictCourtDistrictofAlaska

Appendix B: Boreal caribou avoidance of roads

Region Methods CommentKm

avoidance

RoadsAvoided/Crossed

Trafficmeasured

Mountain High-useroads 2 Polfusetal.,(2011)

Low-useroads 1

Quebec within5 Leblondetal.,(2012)

Quebec beyond2 Rudolphetal.,(2012)

Ontario114GPScollars2009

Forestedhabitatpermeability,predationriskandforageavailability;roadsnotexamined

N/A N/A No Avgaretal.,2013

Quebec

48GPS2004-10;cows;4hintervals

Homerangesizesincreasedthandecreasedwithincreasingclear-cutsandroads–increasewassearchforforagethenatathreshold,toreduceeffortbytradingoffriskstoexpenditureenergy

Notaddressed

Both NoBeauchesneetal.,2014

Quebec

49GPS2004-10;cows;4hintervals

4-35%logged;0.04-1.20km/km2minorroadsand0.04km/km2formajorroads;femalesavoidedcrossingclearcutedgesandroadsatlowdensities,butcrossingincreasedwhendisturbancedensitiesincreased

Notaddressed

Both NoBeauchesneetal.,2013

NWOntarioAerialquadratsurvey

Caribounegativelyrelatedtowolfoccurrenceandroads

Notaddressed

Avoided NoBowmanetal.,2010

NEAlberta1993(5)&1994(15)VHF

Exptexposurepropanecannons(seismic):movementratesinresponsewere2.6kmand1.6kminalowandhighsnowyearrespectively.

Measuredpropanecannons

N/A N/ABradshawetal.,1997

NEAlberta Usedabove

Estimatedno.disturbancestoaccountforwintermasslossbasedinreactionstocannons41-137eventsfora20%loss

N/A N/ABradshawetal.,1998

NorthCentralOnt

14VHF,aerial&groundsurveys

Exptapproach–25loghaultrucks/24hoursplusprivatevehicles

2-5km>900m

Avoided OverallCummingandHyer1998

RockyMtfoothills

12GPS1998-2000dailylocations

Caribouavoidedstreamsbutnotseismiclines(80%>23y)atlowerdensity(0.67km/km2);ploughedroadsavoidedby100m(butnotedsmallsamplesize)

<100m Avoided No Oberg

Behaviouralobservations

Guidedgroupspeople10-15mfromcaribouinopenspruceforest;limitednumbercaribou<150;11dayswithand22withoutvisitors;somereductioninvigilance

Duchesneetal.,2000

Quebecboreal

24GPS3-7h1-3years

Wolvesuseroads;caribouavoidedroadsandselectedhigherelevations(exposedtobearpredation)

<1km Avoided NoDussaultetal.,2012

AlbertaOilsands

22GPS1998replacedin1999+13cows

1%studyareaseismic,roadsandwellsites;measureddecreasedusearoundroads,newdrillpadsandseismic:roodavoidancedeclinedby250-500m;.alsoseismicandwellsites

<500m unknown

Yes-max600-

800vehicles/day

Dyeretal.,2001

AlbertaOilsands

22GPS1998replacedin1999+13cows

236kmroad;7111kmseismic5-9mandmodeledsimilarlengthroadsperhomerangeascontrols;roadscrossedlessthancontrolroadsespeciallyinwinterx6fold.

780.0±73.87SDvehicles/daywinter

Dyeretal.,2002

QuebecWintertracksaerialsurveys

Variabilityinuseofwinterrangehabitatsalonggradients–avoidanceofroads(notinsouth)

Notexamined

Notexamined

Notexamined

Fortinetal.,2008

NEAlberta Wolfcollars

Wolfuseofseismiclinesespeciallyinsummerincreasespredationrisktocaribou

Notexamined

Notexamined

Notexamined

Lathametal.,al2011

Quebec

59GPS2004-20112.5-7h;1999-200028VHF3-5days

37%alteredhabitat–loggingandroads;Probabilitydeathinhomerangescaleincreasedwithrecentdisturbanceandactiveroads;calfdeathrelatedtorecentdisturbance;atfinescalessurvivingindividualsavoidedroadsanddisturbedhabitat;wolvesselectedroads

Notexamined

Notexamined

Notexamined

Leblondetal.,2013a

Quebec

53GPS2004-2010,3or7hintervals

Testedwhethercariboucrossedenlargedhighwaybyfindinglowerratescrossingswithsurrogatehighways;77%(41/53didnotcross);increasedmovementratejustbeforeduringandaftercrossingandavoidedvicinityhighway;95kmhighwaycrossedrangesandwaswidened25to90mover3y;increasingdisturbanceincreasedrateofmovement,andavoidanceofroadupto5000m(mean186vehicles/hour

Upto5000m

Yes YesLeblondetal.,2013b

Quebec

24GPS2004-2010,3or7hintervals

RSFanalysisemphasizedhierarchicalhabitatselectioninfluencedresponsetoroads;0.75-1.25kmavoidancelessthanthanelsewherebutalsoconstrainedbyhighdensityroads(1.66km/km2)

<1.25Not

examinedNot

examinedLeblondetal.,2011

Appendix C: Caribou related best practices (ExtractedfromB.C.MinistryofForests.2014.“ACompendiumofWildlifeGuidelinesforIndustrialDevelopmentProjectsintheNorthArea,BritishColumbia”http://a100.gov.bc.ca/pub/eirs/finishDownloadDocument.do?subdocumentId=9921)

Identifytheimpactsofproposedactivitiesoncaribouandcaribouhabitat.3.1.Quantifytheamountofhabitatlostoradverselyaffectedbyprojectfootprintorthrough

sensorydisturbance.Thisshouldincludeanevaluationofprojectfootprintagainstspatialfilesforcaribou(coreandmatrixhabitat).

3.2.Identifydurationofsensorydisturbance(e.g.onlyduringconstructionorthroughoutprojecttimeline)andsourcesofsensorydisturbance(e.g.compressorstations).

3.3.Identifypotentialimpactsofprojectfootprintonpredator-preydynamics.Governmentandcaribouspecialistsrecognizethatunderstandingandcontrollingpredationacrosstherangeofwoodlandcaribouisessentialtoachievingpopulationgoals.Includedetail,ifknown,onanyexpectedchangestopredatororpreypopulationsordistribution(e.g.whetherdevelopmentfootprintisexpectedtoincreaseforageforbearsorungulates,orfacilitatetravelforwolves).

3.4.Quantifytheincreaseinthedensityoflinearfeatures(e.g.roads,trails,pipelineright-of-ways,seismiclines)withintheregionalstudyarea,whichistobedeterminedbytheproponent.Asupportingrationalefortheregionalstudyareadeterminationshouldaccompanyanymitigationplan.

Avoidorminimizenewdisturbancetoandthelossofimportanthabitats.4.1.Relocatealldevelopmentsoutsideofdesignatedcaribouhabitattominimizeoverlapof

developmentfootprintwithcaribouvalues.4.2.Usepreviouslydisturbedareasandexistingaccess,andavoidconstructingpermanentroads

andtrailswithinortocaribourange.4.3.Employalternatemeansofdevelopmenttoavoidandminimizesurfacedisturbance.4.4.Manageactivitiestooccurinarea-basedclusterssothatvegetationclearingand

disturbancesoccurduringasshortatimeframeaspossible.4.5.Avoidorminimizevegetationclearing,forestharvestinganddevelopmentactivitiesthat

directlyreduceorotherwiseimpacttheabundanceofarborealorterrestriallichens.4.7.Maintainknownandpotentialwildlifefeatures(e.g.minerallicksandassociatedwildlife

trails)inanaturalstateandensurecaribouhaveaccesstothem4.7.1.Avoidalldevelopmentswithin250mofmineral-licksitesandwildlifetrailsconnectingto

minerallicks.4.7.2.Whereroadsorlinearcorridors,facilitiesorotherdevelopmentscannotbeavoidednear

minerallicks,ensurethatconnectivitytoadjacentforestedareasismaintained.4.7.3.Forexistingroadsorotherlinearfeaturesnearwildlifehabitatfeatures,minimizeuseand

disturbanceduringcritical-useperiods.4.7.4.Avoiddisruptionstodrainageandgroundwaternearminerallicksandwildlifehabitat

features.

4.8.Maintainvisualscreening(i.e.forestedcover)toprovidesecurityandescapecoveraroundminerallicksitesandtrails.

4.9.Protectandavoiddegradationtowetlandhabitats.4.9.2.Placelineardevelopmentsandassociatedfacilitiesawayfromwetlands.Avoid

constructingaccessroadsandtrailsthroughwetlands.4.9.3.Maintainabufferaroundwetlandstoavoidprovidingdirectaccessbetweenupland

habitatsandwetlandareasusedbycaribou.Thiswillhelptomaintainspatialseparationbetweencaribouandearly-seralungulatesandtheirpredators.

4.9.4.Employalternatemeansofdevelopment(e.g.horizontaldrilling)toavoidandminimizeeffectsonwetlandareas

4.9.5Locateworksitesoutsideriparianareasandmanagesurfacewaterflowstopreventsedimentandcontaminantsfromenteringwetlands,

4.9.6.Design,installandmaintainwetlandroadcrossingstoprovidepassageofsurfaceandsubsurfacewater.Clear-spanbridgesarethepreferredcrossingoption.

4.9.7.Usevegetationmanagementcontroltechniquestominimizeunnecessaryimpactstowetlandfeaturesandfunctions.

Avoidincreasingthedensityoflineardisturbanceswithinorinproximitytocaribouhabitat.5.1.Avoidconstructingnewlinearfeatures(e.g.roads,trails,pipelineright-of-ways,seismic

lines)inandnearhigh-valuecaribouhabitat.5.2.Usehelicopteraccesswhereverpossibletoavoiddevelopingnewaccesscorridors.5.3.Useexistingaccesswhereverpossible.5.4.Developtrafficandaccessmanagementplansforallphasesoftheproject(pre-construction,

construction,operationandclosure).5.4.1.Planroadsanddesignfeaturesofroads(e.g.pullouts,constructionstagingareas,etc.)so

thattheyarenotinconflictwithimportantcaribouhabitatorfeatures.5.4.2.Inareasofhighresourceroaddensity,co-ordinatethedevelopmentofroadsbetween

usergroups.5.4.3.Planroadsandotherlinearfeaturestotransect,notrunparallelto,migrationcorridorsto

minimizetheutilityofnewlinearfeaturestopredators.5.4.4.Preventdesignoflooproads,wherelineardevelopmentstransectpreviouslyun-

connectedroadnetworks.5.5.Uselow-impactseismiclinesratherthanconventionalseismiclinesinandnearhigh-value

caribouhabitat.5.6.Minimizedurationofnewaccessinandnearhigh-valuecaribouhabitat.Fullydeactivate

andreclaimroads,spursandtrailsimmediatelyonceuseisnolongerrequired(re-contour,de-compactandrestorevegetationtooriginalstateandspeciesmixbyreplantingtreesandrestoringlichencommunities).

5.7.Whereroadsandotherlinearfeaturescannotbepracticablyavoided,designtemporarystructures,includingwinterroads,whereverpossible.Permanentlydecommissionandreclaimalltemporaryroads,temporarilyupgradedroadsorstructuresimmediatelyfollowingindustrialactivities.

5.8.Fullyde-buildroadsandspursonceuseisnolongerrequiredbyre-contouring,de-compactingandrestoringvegetationtoitsoriginalstateandspecieswhereverpossible.

5.9.Donotconstructnewpermanent,all-weatherroadsincoremigrationareas.5.10.Retainvisualbuffersalongaccessroutes.Avoiddisplacingcaribouandminimizedirectandindirectmortalityoncariboupopulations.6.1.Planallactivitiesinandaroundcaribouhabitattooccuronlyoutsiderisktimingwindowsfor

caribou.6.2.Limitcollision-relatedmortality(e.g.facilitatewildlifemovementaroundroadsandpost

speedlimits,particularlyinhigh-wildlife-useareas).Establishandenforceroadrestrictionsandroadsafetyprotocols,includingtrafficcalling,speedrestrictions,convoyingandpostingappropriatesignage.

6.3.Managerecreationalaccess(motorizedandnon-motorized).6.3.1.Avoidprovidingaccesstoremoteorpreviouslyinaccessibleareas.6.3.2.Avoidtheestablishmentofroadsystemswith“circle”or“loop”routes.6.3.3.Limitpublicaccessbeyondspecificcontrolpointsonayear-roundorseasonalbasis(e.g.

useaccesscontrolstructures,partialorfulldeactivation,bridgeremovalorvegetationmanagementtodeterunregulateduse).

6.3.4.Donotploworpackaccesstocaribouhabitatinwinter.6.3.5.Deactivatetemporarilyunusedroadsbyleavingtheminaconditiontodiscourage

motorizedaccessandtomakepassagebypredatorsdifficult.6.4.Avoidproject-relateddisplacementofcaribou.6.4.1.Reduceproject-relatednoise.6.4.2.Applybestmanagementpracticesduringallphasesofdevelopment.6.4.3.Applybestmanagementpracticesforaircraftoperations.6.4.4.Haveaqualifiedprofessionalonsiteduringconstructionactivities.6.4.5.Implementaprogramtomonitorwildlifesightingsandensurethatastopworkorderisin

placeintheeventthatcaribouareobservedwithinthedevelopmentarea.6.4.6.Restrictdevelopmentactivitiesandindustrialtrafficaroundknowncariboumigration

corridorsduringmigrationperiods.6.5.Applyrisktimingwindowsforallactivities.6.6.Toapplyaprecautionaryapproach,aerialoperationsincludebothhelicopterandfixed-wing

aircraft.Complianceofpilotsandaircraftoperatorsandcompaniesisrequired.6.7.Removed[complywithGeneralWildlifeMeasures].6.8.Limithelicopterandfixed-wingflightsto:6.8.1.2000mminimumhorizontalavoidancefromminerallicks.6.8.2.400mabovegroundlevelover-flightelevationandnocirclingforallwinterrange,mineral

licksandforbirthingareas.6.8.3.100mabovegroundlevelminimumforinventory.6.8.4.Nodirectapproachtoaggregations,animalswithyoungorspecialfeaturessuchas

minerallicks.6.9.Implementaprogramtomonitorwildlifesightings,aircraftactivitiesandadaptations.Avoidincreasingthepredationriskforcariboupopulations.7.1.Limittheamountanddistributionofearly-seralhabitat.

7.1.1.Avoidincreasingtheamountordistributionofearly-seralungulateorbearhabitatwithinfivekmofcaribourange.

7.1.2.Usevegetationmanagement(e.g.manualbrushing)toreducewillowandshrubplantcommunitiesonpipelineright-of-waysandotherlinearfeaturesthatwillbemaintainedoverthelongterm.

7.1.3.Withinthecoreareas,recreatelichen-bearinghabitat,ratherthangrassorseeding.7.2.Controlpredatoraccess.7.2.1.Donotploworpackaccesstocaribouhabitatinwinter.7.2.2.Fullydeactivateandreclaimroads,spursandtrailsimmediatelyonceuseisnolonger

required(re-contour,de-compactandrestorevegetationtooriginalstateandspecies).7.2.3.Ensurethatreclaimedlinearfeatureshavelimitedvalueasmoose,deer,orelkhabitat.7.2.4.Ensurethatactiveorreclaimedlinearfeatureshavelimitedvalueforsnowmobilesto

preventpackedtrailstohigh-elevationhabitat.7.2.5.Avoidconstructingroadsthatprovideacorridorintocaribouhabitat(e.g.fromvalley-

bottomtohigh-elevationhabitatorfromuplandtowetlandhabitats).Avoidcontaminatingcaribouhabitat.8.1.Manageallwasteproducts,duringallprojectphases,sothatcontaminationofwaterand

vegetationdoesnotoccurduetodevelopmentactivities.8.1.1.Wasteproductsinclude,butarenotlimitedto,allfuels,campwastes,drillingwaste,

wastewater,herbicides,pesticides,etc.8.1.2.Consideralternativestoroadsaltsordustcontrolchemicalswhererun-offcouldimpact

waterquality.8.1.3.FollowappropriatefuelmanagementregulationsandguidelinesRestorehabitatstoaconditionthatprovidesasimilarleveloffunctionalcaribouhabitatas

beforeanyindustrialactivitytookplace.9.1.Restorehabitatassoonaspossiblefollowingdevelopment.9.2.Deactivatelinearfeaturesassoonaspossibleafterthecessationofdevelopment(i.e.atthe

endofconstructionphaseifpossible).9.2.1.Replantlinearfeatureswithnativespecies.9.2.2.Makeimpassibletopredatorsbycreatinglarge,longandfrequentroughpilesofcoarse

woodydebris,rocks,stumps,etc.alongthelengthofthelinearfeatureuntilvegetationrecoverymakesthefeatureunusable.

9.2.3.Providevisualbreaksalongedgesoflinearfeaturesuntilsuchtimeastheyarefullyrestoredtooriginalcondition.Featuresincludeberms,denseconiferplanting,roughpilesofcoarsewoodydebris,rocks,stumps,etc.

9.2.4.Blockofflinearfeaturesattheintersectionwithpipelineright-of-waysorotherlinearfeaturestominimizeutilitytopredators.

9.2.5.Reshapeslopes,opendrainagesystemsandstabilizeforerosion.9.3.Limitattractingearly-seralungulatesandpredatorstodevelopmentareas.9.3.1.Restorenativeplantcommunities.9.3.2.Selectless-palatablenativeplantspeciesforre-vegetation.9.3.3.Usevegetationmanagement(e.g.manualbrushing)toreducewillowandshrubplant

communitiesuntilnaturalvegetationandforestrecovers.

9.3.4.Avoiduseofspeciesthatwillresultinadensecoverofmat-forminggraminoids.Whereagronomicspeciesarenecessarytoachieveerosionobjectivesand/ortopreventestablishmentofinvasivespecies,ensurethespeciesmixincludesonlyannual,non-mat-formingandnon-leguminousspecies.

9.3.5.Facilitatethere-establishmentoflichensinappropriatehabitats.9.4.Explorepotentialtorestoreareasnotdirectlyaffectedbyproponents’activities(e.g.reduce

thedensityoflinearfeaturesinareatocompensateforincreaseinlineardensityassociatedwithpipeline).Thiscouldinvolveestablishingagreementswithothertenureholders.

9.5.Whenclearingland,preventtheestablishmentandspreadofinvasivespeciesbyre-vegetatingdisturbedareasassoonaspossibleusingnativeplants,asdisturbedgroundisoftenconducivetoinvasivespecies.Neverplantinvasiveornon-nativeplants.Aspartoftheongoingmonitoringoftheproject,examinationoftheprojectareafortheoccurrenceofinvasivespeciesmustbeundertakenandtheiroccurrenceaddressed.

Developamonitoringandadaptivemanagementplantomonitortheeffectivenessof

measurestoavoid,minimizeandrestore.10.1.Theproponentisresponsibleforcarryingoutrelevantmonitoringtoensurethatmitigation

measuresareimplementedasplannedandareeffectiveatmeetingtheintendedobjectivestoreduceimpactsoncaribouandcaribouhabitat.Planningformonitoringmustbedoneatanearlyphaseoftheprojectandrevisedasrequiredastheprojectdevelops.Monitoringobjectivesandcommitmentsmustbeestablishedpriortofinalizationofthemitigationplan.

10.2.Thetypeanddegreeofmonitoringshouldbeproportionaltothedegreeofrisktocaribouanduncertaintyaroundefficacyofmitigationmeasures(e.g.thegreatertheuncertaintyassociatedwithamitigationmeasure,thegreatertheneedtomonitortheimplementationandeffectivenessofthemeasure).

10.3.Monitoringmustbeplannedandcarriedoutbyanappropriatelyqualifiedprofessionalknowledgeableincaribouecology,andalldatamustbesharedwiththeprovincetofacilitatefuturemanagementofthesubjectcaribouherds.Further,monitoringresultsshouldbeusedtoimprovetheapproachtomitigationforthecurrentprojectactivityordevelopmentand,ifappropriate,futuremitigationopportunities.

10.4.Generally,monitoringofimplementationandeffectivenessofmitigationmeasuresshouldincludethefollowingconsiderations:

10.4.1.Focusonchangesovertimetoallcariboucomponentsandindicators.Monitoringplansshouldbedesignedtoidentifyprojecteffectsasdistincteffectsfromotherprojectsorstochasticevents.

10.4.2.Useabefore-and-aftercontrolstudydesign.10.4.3.Usemodellingaspartofthemonitoringsuiteoftools.10.4.4.Prioritizemonitoringbasedonanassessmentofthelikelihoodoftheeffectivenessof

proposedmitigationandtheseverityoftheimpactoncaribouandcaribouhabitat.10.4.5.Employprinciplesofadaptivemanagementtoimproveeffectivenessofmitigationandto

mitigateunforeseenimpacts.

Documents

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