Assessing alternative energy sources to fossil fuels

NS4053 Week 6.2

Agenda

• Review forecasts for alternatives to fossil fuel energy

• Discuss renewable energy alternatives.• Considering the other alternative (nuclear).• Implications of technology development

patterns for future energy return on investment.

• Consequences

US EIA Outlook 2012

Renewable alternatives• Solar, wind, hydro, tidal, geothermal, etc.

– Generally focus is on non-combustible sources.• Pros:

– Low emissions (in operation)– Renewable– Cost competitive in high energy cost scenario– Domestic/regional sources

• Cons: – Site sensitive/limited.– Time and weather sensitive/limited.– Life cycle analysis incorporating cost of manufacturing not as favorable.– Large foot print (NIMBY).

Up front costs for alternatives

LCOE for alternatives

Nuclear

• Regulatory environment• Economics• Waste• Safety• Proliferation issues

Nuclear industry demands subsidies to reduce risk and finance construction.

Other energy producers lobby against special treatment for nuclear

What to do about aspiring nuclear states?

Implications for global governance

• Consequences of nuclear accident or proliferation are transnational.

• Main transnational nuclear issues areas:– Safety– Security– Nonproliferation

• Existing safety regimes have gaps:– Participation– Enforcement

• Role of IAEA: vital but frequently hamstrung

Nonproliferation

• Nonproliferation treaty and additional protocols (AP)– Periodic controversy between nuclear and non-

nuclear states over disarmament.– Inspection regime has issues, controversy over

additional protocols to NPT.– Concerns over vulnerability of fuel cycle to

proliferation.• Is answer multilateralization of fuel cycle?

Patterns in technology development

• Logic of s-curves:– Initial development: high costs and low efficiency hold down

ROI.– Mid-curve: learning, experience, wide adoption, economies

of scale bring down costs and increase returns.– Maturing technology: development plateaus,

commoditization of product.• Governments frequently lobbied for subsidies to push

past the beginning of the s-curve.• Which energy technologies are at what point in the s-

curve?

Case: PV technology S-curve

Case: Biofuels s-curve

Implications

• Alternatives do not offer a ‘seamless’ alternative to fossil fuel economy.– Long lead time in terms of investment, experimentation

and technology maturity.– Difficulty matching energy produced from fossil fuels.

• Alternatives do have advantages in easing transition to lower carbon future and higher cost of fossil fuels.

• Security implications? Alternatives accentuate shift towards domestic/regional energy markets.– Energy would be less of a global security problem.

Back up slides