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Todd TranauskyVP, Rail & Intermodal
Avery ViseVP, Trucking
Jonathan StarksChief Intelligence Officer
Ask The ExpertsApril 16, 2020
Don AkeVP, Commercial Vehicles
Webinar will start at 11:00 AM EDT
2
Upcoming Content:
April 16th
Weekly Transportation UpdateSOFI FLASH: Freight Outlook
April 17th
SOFI FLASH: CV OutlookSOFI FLASH: Railcar Outlook
April 30th
Trucking UpdateTruck & Trailer Outlook
May 7th
Shippers UpdateRail Update
May 14th
SOF Webinar: Topic TBD
33
ASK THE EXPERT AGENDAEconomic updateModal Conditions Trucking Rail/Intermodal Commercial Vehicle
After COVID-19: Assessing freight in a ‘restart’ economyOpen Q&A Submit your questions at any time in the Question pane of the GoToWebinar system
44
ECONOMIC UPDATE
55
WORST WEEKS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, FTR
695,000
3,307,000
6,867,000 6,615,000
5,245,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
10/2/1982 3/21/2020 3/28/2020 4/4/2020 4/11/2020
5 largest weeks for initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits
Previous High
66
RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICE SALES
Source: Census Bureau, FTR
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
$300$325$350$375$400$425$450$475$500$525$550
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Billions (Current dollars), seasonally adjusted, and y/y change
Y/Y change Sales
March 2020 Sales: $483.1 billionY/Y: 6.2%M/M: 8.7%
77
FED MANUFACTURING INDEX
Source: Federal Reserve, FTR
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
7681869196
101106111116
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Index (100 = 2012), seasonally adjusted, and y/y change
Y/Y change Index
March 2020 Index: 98.3Y/Y: 6.6%M/M: 6.3%
88
TRUCKING
99
DRY VAN SPOT LOADS
Source: Truckstop.com, FTR – www.trans4cast.com
0255075
100125150175200225
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Weekly index, 100 = 2014 average
2020 2019 2018 5-Yr Avg
1010
REEFER SPOT LOADS
Source: Truckstop.com, FTR – www.trans4cast.com
0255075
100125150175200225250275
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Weekly index, 100 = 2014 average
2020 2019 2018 5-Yr Avg
1111
FLATBED SPOT LOADS
Source: Truckstop.com, FTR – www.trans4cast.com
0255075
100125150175200225250
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Weekly index, 100 = 2014 average
2020 2019 2018 5-Yr Avg
1212
RAIL/INTERMODAL
1313
TRAILERS ADD DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INTERMODAL
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
-16%-14%-12%-10%
-8%-6%-4%-2%0%
Thou
sand
s
Y/Y
%
N.A. Intermodal Loadings 4 Week Avg. Ending 04/11/20
Carloads Vs. Prev. Year Carloads 5 Year Average - 4 Week Mov Avg.
Source: AAR, FTR
1414
ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE FREIGHT TAKES IT ON THE CHIN
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
Thou
sand
s
N.A. Selected Commodities Carloads 4 Week Avg. Ending 04/11/20
Carloads Vs. Prev. Year Carloads 5 Year Average - 4 Week Mov Avg.
Source: AAR, FTR
1515
AUTOMOTIVE LOADINGS SHOW THE IMPACT OF PLANT CLOSURES
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Thou
sand
s
N.A. Motor Vehicles & Equip. Carloads 4 Week Avg. Ending 04/11/20
Carloads Vs. Prev. Year Carloads 5 Year Average - 4 Week Mov Avg.
Source: AAR, FTR
1616
COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
1717
N.A. CLASS 8 ORDERS32
,293
52,1
22
21,9
65
7,43
1
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Nov De
c20
18 Feb
Mar Ap
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c20
19 Feb
Mar Ap
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c20
20 Feb
Mar
Source: FTR
1818
CLASS 8 INVENTORY
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Nov De
c
2018 Fe
b
Mar Ap
r
May Jun Jul
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
2019 Fe
b
Mar Ap
r
May Jun Jul
Aug
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
2020 Fe
b
Record level
Source: FTR
1919
U.S. TRAILER ORDERS42
,628
55,6
25
5,57
1
30,7
47
6,50
0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Nov Dec
2018 Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
2019 Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
2020 Fe
b
(P) M
ar
Source: FTR
www.ftrintel.com/coronavirus
LIFE AFTER COVID-19:FREIGHT OUTLOOK
2222
GDP GOODS TRANSPORT SECTOR
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
Q/Q change, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Forecast Prior Forecast
Source: BEA, Witte Econometrics, FTR
2323
TOTAL U.S. FREIGHT TONMILES
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
Q/Q change, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Forecast Prior Forecast
Source: FTR
2424
U.S. RAIL CARLOADS
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
Y/Y change, Seasonally adjusted data
Forecast Prior Forecast
Source: FTR
2525
U.S. INTERMODAL LOADS
-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%
10%15%
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
Y/Y change
Forecast Prior Forecast
Source: FTR, History ties to IANA ETSO
2626
U.S. TRUCK LOADINGS
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
Y/Y change, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Forecast Prior Forecast
Source: FTR
2727
U.S. ACTIVE TRUCK UTILIZATION
80%
83%
85%
88%
90%
93%
95%
98%
100%
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4
Percentage of seated trucks engaged in hauling freight
Forecast Prior Forecast
Source: FTR
28
Q & A Type a question into the `Question’ pane.
We will attempt to answer as many of your questions
as time permits
29
REPLAY/SLIDES WILL BE AVAILABLE A replay, along with slides, will be available later this week
Available to State of Freight INSIGHTS subscribersAvailable in the ‘On-Demand Videos’ section when logged in
Check your email to find out when it is ready
Feel free to follow up with our speakers – or anyone else on the FTR team
Phone: 888.988.1699
Email: [email protected]
Thank You!
