Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016: Taiwanillicittobacco.oxfordeconomics.com/media/OXFO5304_Taiwan... · 2017. 11. 9. · Taiwan Legal Domestic Sales are estimated at 33.8 billion

Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016: TaiwanPrepared by Oxford EconomicsOctober 2017

22

DisclaimerThe Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016 Report (the “Report”) on the illicit tobacco trade in selected Asian markets (including Australia and New Zealand) has been prepared by Oxford Economics (OE). OE enjoyed academic freedom and full editorial control of the Report. We are grateful for the inputs and data received from public sector and industry stakeholders.

OE prepared the Report in accordance with specific terms of reference agreed between Philip Morris International Management SA, an affiliate of Philip Morris International (PM), and OE. Financial support for the Report was provided by PM. OE assume all responsibility for the Report analysis, findings, and conclusion. The terms of reference under which OE were engaged by Philip Morris International Management SA are detailed in the Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016 Methodological Overview Report, available to download via the following link illicittobacco.oxfordeconomics.com

http://illicittobacco.oxfordeconomics.com

33 | Taiwan Market Summary

Taiwan: Legal Domestic Sales

3

Legal Domestic Sales:

33.8 bn cigarettes

Taiwan

Price:

TWD 95.0 USD 3.01

1 Price per pack of 20 of the Most Sold Brand in October 2016, based on PM data.

Taiwan Legal Domestic Sales are estimated at 33.8 billion cigarettes for 2016, an increase of 2.4% in comparison to 2015.

JTI and Taiwan Tobacco & Liquor Corporation (TTL) together account for 67% of the legal market for cigarettes in Taiwan. Imperial Tobacco, BAT, and PM account for most of the remainder of Legal Domestic Sales.

The price of the Most Sold Brand of cigarettes in Taiwan was TWD 95 per pack of 20 cigarettes in 2016, unchanged from 2015. This reflects a stable rate of tobacco tax, which has been kept at TWD 1,590 per 1,000 cigarettes since 2010 (this includes an Excise Tax of TWD 590 per 1,000 cigarettes and a health surcharge of TWD 1,000 per 1,000 cigarettes).

Prices for cigarettes are well above those in China. The nominal price per pack of 20 of the Most Sold Brand of cigarettes in 2016 was USD 3.01 in Taiwan, compared with a price of USD 1.50 for the Most Sold Brand in China. However, cigarette prices are lower in Taiwan compared with other North-East Asian markets, such as Hong Kong (USD 7.35), Macao (USD 6.45), and South Korea (4.04).1

The government announced a rise in Excise Tax to TWD 1,590 per 1,000 cigarettes (from TWD 590 per 1,000 cigarettes, equivalent to a 169.5% increase) in May 2017.

44

Source: Taiwanese Ministry of Finance 2 Rate applied in October of each year to the Most Sold Brand, including Earmarked Tax.

Source: Oxford Economics based on PM data 3Price of the Most Sold Brand in October of each year.

Taiwan: Tobacco tax applied to cigarettes2

Taiwan: Legal Domestic Sales and prices3

Taiwan Market Summary |

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

201620152014201320122011201020092008

169.5%1,590 1,5901,5901,5901,5901,5901,590

590590

TW

D pe

r 1,0

00 ci

gare

ttes

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn

TWD per pack of 20 cigarettes

% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

0

20

40

60

80

100

20162015201420132012

89.9 89.7

7.7 8.7

Non-Domestic Legal (NDL)

Illicit Consumption

Legal Domestic Consumption

2.4NDL

1.6NDL

93.2

5.5

93.4

5.3

91.7

6.4 1.4NDL

1.3NDL

1.9NDL

TWD

bn

Actual ExciseTax revenues

Estimated Excise Tax Loss

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20162015201420132012

54.6 55.8 54.6

4.8 5.5

Ciga

rette

s bn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20162015201420132012

35.5 35.5

3.039.5 39.6 38.2

36.23.5


Illicit Consumption


1.0NDL

0.6NDL

33.7

2.035.3

32.9

1.9

35.0

2.50.5NDL

0.5NDL

0.7NDL

3.1

52.6

3.0

52.3

3.9

TWD per pack of 20 cigarettes Cigarette sales bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

201620152014201320122011201020092008

169.5%1,590 1,5901,5901,5901,5901,5901,590

590590

TW

D pe

r 1,0

00 ci

gare

ttes

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn


% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

0

20

40

60

80

100

20162015201420132012

89.9 89.7

7.7 8.7


Illicit Consumption


2.4NDL

1.6NDL

93.2

5.5

93.4

5.3

91.7

6.4 1.4NDL

1.3NDL

1.9NDL

TWD

bn



10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20162015201420132012

54.6 55.8 54.6

4.8 5.5

Ciga

rette

s bn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20162015201420132012

35.5 35.5

3.039.5 39.6 38.2

36.23.5


Illicit Consumption


1.0NDL

0.6NDL

33.7

2.035.3

32.9

1.9

35.0

2.50.5NDL

0.5NDL

0.7NDL

3.1

52.6

3.0

52.3

3.9


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

55

Taiwan: Cigarette Consumption

Source: Oxford Economics1 The Consumer Panel Survey was undertaken in 2016 H1. The topography of Taiwan (with 70% of the landmass covered by mountainous terrain) makes it difficult to undertake an Empty Pack Survey that can be considered representative of the market. As such, a Consumer Survey is employed to ensure more complete coverage of the market (see Report methodology for more details).

2 Estimated using passenger data, Smoking Prevalence in tourists’ country/market of origin, and the passenger duty-free personal import allowance limit.

32015 results have been restated due to updated data on Legal Domestic Sales.

Taiwan: Composition of cigarette consumption3

The results from the Consumer Panel Survey and IMS data on Legal Domestic Sales were used to estimate Total Consumption of cigarettes in Taiwan.1

Total Consumption (legal and illicit) was estimated at 36.2 billion in 2016, up 2.7% from 2015. Of this, an estimated 93.2% or 33.7 billion cigarettes was Legal Domestic Consumption, 1.4% was Non-Domestic Legal Consumption, and 5.5% or 2.0 billion cigarettes was Illicit Consumption.

The volume of Illicit Consumption rose by 6.3% in 2016 versus the previous year, from 1.9 billion cigarettes to 2.0 billion. This follows a 0.6 billion decline in the volume of Illicit Consumption in 2015.

The share of Illicit Consumption in Total Consumption rose marginally, to 5.5% in 2016, 0.2pp higher than the previous year.

Over a longer time series comparison both the volume and share of Illicit Consumption is much-reduced however. The volume of Illicit Consumption in 2016 was nearly 43% lower than the peak of 3.5 billion cigarettes in 2013, while Illicit Incidence fell by 3.2pp over the same period, from 8.7% to 5.5%.

The volume of Non-Domestic Legal cigarettes consumed was broadly stable in 2016, at 0.5 billion. This reflects a stable passenger duty-free personal import allowance, at 200 cigarettes per adult.2

| Taiwan Market Summary

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % change

2015-16 Cigarettes bn % Cigarettes

bn % Cigarettes bn % Cigarettes

bn % Cigarettes bn %

Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC) 35.5 89.9 35.5 89.7 35.0 91.7 32.9 93.4 33.7 93.2 2.4

Legal Domestic Sales (LDS) 35.5 – 35.5 – 35.1 – 33.0 – 33.8 – 2.4

Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes 0.0 – 0.0 – 0.0 – 0.0 – 0.0 – -26.6

Total Non-Domestic Inflows (ND) 4.0 10.1 4.1 10.3 3.2 8.3 2.3 6.6 2.5 6.8 6.4

Non-Domestic Legal (NDL) 1.0 2.4 0.6 1.6 0.7 1.9 0.5 1.3 0.5 1.4 6.8

Non-Domestic Illicit 3.0 7.7 3.5 8.7 2.5 6.4 1.9 5.3 2.0 5.5 6.3

Domestic Illicit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a

Total Consumption 39.5 100.0 39.6 100.0 38.2 100.0 35.3 100.0 36.2 100.0 2.7

Total Illicit Consumption 3.0 7.7 3.5 8.7 2.5 6.4 1.9 5.3 2.0 5.5 6.3

66

Source: Oxford Economics

Source: Oxford Economics

Taiwan: Composition of cigarette consumption(% of Total Consumption)

Taiwan: Composition of cigarette consumption(number of cigarettes)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

201620152014201320122011201020092008

169.5%1,590 1,5901,5901,5901,5901,5901,590

590590

TW

D pe

r 1,0

00 ci

gare

ttes

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn


% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

0

20

40

60

80

100

20162015201420132012

89.9 89.7

7.7 8.7


Illicit Consumption


2.4NDL

1.6NDL

93.2

5.5

93.4

5.3

91.7

6.4 1.4NDL

1.3NDL

1.9NDL

TWD

bn



10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20162015201420132012

54.6 55.8 54.6

4.8 5.5

Ciga

rette

s bn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20162015201420132012

35.5 35.5

3.039.5 39.6 38.2

36.23.5


Illicit Consumption


1.0NDL

0.6NDL

33.7

2.035.3

32.9

1.9

35.0

2.50.5NDL

0.5NDL

0.7NDL

3.1

52.6

3.0

52.3

3.9


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

201620152014201320122011201020092008

169.5%1,590 1,5901,5901,5901,5901,5901,590

590590

TW

D pe

r 1,0

00 ci

gare

ttes

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn


% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

0

20

40

60

80

100

20162015201420132012

89.9 89.7

7.7 8.7


Illicit Consumption


2.4NDL

1.6NDL

93.2

5.5

93.4

5.3

91.7

6.4 1.4NDL

1.3NDL

1.9NDL

TWD

bn



10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20162015201420132012

54.6 55.8 54.6

4.8 5.5

Ciga

rette

s bn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20162015201420132012

35.5 35.5

3.039.5 39.6 38.2

36.23.5


Illicit Consumption


1.0NDL

0.6NDL

33.7

2.035.3

32.9

1.9

35.0

2.50.5NDL

0.5NDL

0.7NDL

3.1

52.6

3.0

52.3

3.9


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


77

Taiwan: Government Finances From 2010 to 2016, Taiwan applied a single-rate, unit-specific Excise Tax of TWD 11.8 per pack of 20 cigarettes. In May 2017, the government announced this Excise Tax would be almost trebled, to TWD 31.8 per pack of 20.

In addition, a tobacco health and welfare surcharge of TWD 20 per pack of cigarettes is levied, which was last raised in 2009. VAT is also levied at a rate of 5% on sales.

Actual revenues from the Excise Tax on cigarettes grew by 3.8% to TWD 54.6 billion in 2016, from TWD 52.6 billion in 2015.

Our estimates indicate that the Tax Loss associated with the Illicit Consumption of cigarettes in 2016 amounted to TWD 3.5 billion (USD 109 million). This is around 6.0% higher than the estimated loss in 2015, and reflects the fact that Illicit Consumption rose by a similar rate in 2016.

As a proportion of potential total Excise Tax revenues, losses resulting from the Illicit Consumption of cigarettes rose modestly, from 5.3% in 2015 to 5.5% in 2016. Nevertheless, this is 3.5pp lower than in 2013.

Source: Taiwanese Ministry of Finance and Oxford Economics based on PM dataIncludes Earmarked Taxes.

Taiwan: Actual government revenues and estimated Tax Loss


2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % change in local

currency2015/16

TWD bn

USD mn

TWD bn

USD mn

TWD bn

USD mn

TWD bn

USD mn

TWD bn

USD mn

Actual revenue from excise duties on tobacco 54.6 1,844 55.8 1,873 52.3 1,722 52.6 1,649 54.6 1,689 3.8%

Estimated number of illicit cigarettes purchased (cigarettes bn) 3.0 3.5 2.0 1.9 2.0 6.3%

Estimated Tax Loss from Illicit Consumption 5.4 183 6.1 205 4.3 143 3.3 104 3.5 109 6.0%

Lost excise revenue 4.8 163 5.5 185 3.9 129 3.0 93 3.1 97 6.3%

Lost VAT revenue 0.6 20 0.6 20 0.4 14 0.3 11 0.4 11 3.5%

Excise Tax Loss as % of potential total Excise Tax revenues 8.1% 9.0% 7.0% 5.3% 5.5%

88

Source: Taiwanese Ministry of Finance and Oxford Economics based on PM data

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

201620152014201320122011201020092008

169.5%1,590 1,5901,5901,5901,5901,5901,590

590590

TW

D pe

r 1,0

00 ci

gare

ttes

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

201620152014201320122011201020092008

Ciga

rette

s bn


% o

f Tot

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

0

20

40

60

80

100

20162015201420132012

89.9 89.7

7.7 8.7


Illicit Consumption


2.4NDL

1.6NDL

93.2

5.5

93.4

5.3

91.7

6.4 1.4NDL

1.3NDL

1.9NDL

TWD

bn



10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20162015201420132012

54.6 55.8 54.6

4.8 5.5

Ciga

rette

s bn

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20162015201420132012

35.5 35.5

3.039.5 39.6 38.2

36.23.5


Illicit Consumption


1.0NDL

0.6NDL

33.7

2.035.3

32.9

1.9

35.0

2.50.5NDL

0.5NDL

0.7NDL

3.1

52.6

3.0

52.3

3.9


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Taiwan: Actual government revenues and estimated Excise Tax Loss


99

Taiwan: Trade Flows

Source: IT Flows Model and Oxford Economics 1 Cheap whites are defined as cigarettes that do not belong to the major tobacco companies or other legal brands sold in the Taiwan market, with a retail selling price below TWD 45 per pack, and not available for purchase in the major retail stores. DNP products include Duty-Free and other products identifiable by market of intended final retail sale but that have not paid the relevant tobacco taxes. Other illicit whites include all remaining cigarettes that cannot be categorised as either of domestic origin, DNP, Counterfeit, or cheap whites.

2 Estimated using passenger data, Smoking Prevalence in tourists’ country/market of origin, and the passenger duty-free personal import allowance limit.

3Figures in brackets reflect % change from 2015.

Cheap Whites / Other / DNP

1,643 mn(+32.4%)

Duty-Free labelled products

338 mn(-45.7%)

Taiwan: Origin of total Non-Domestic Illicit Inflows3

Total1,981 mn

(+6.3%)

Cigarettes mn

2012 2013 2014 2014 2015

Duty-Free labelled products 1,142 1,817 782 623 338Cheap Whites / Other / DNP 1,896 1,643 1,678 1,241 1,643

Total 3,038 3,460 2,460 1,863 1,981


Illicit cigarettes consumed in Taiwan consist primarily of cheap whites and other Illicit Whites. In total, 82.5% of total illicit Inflows fall into this category, with the remainder consisting of duty-non-paid (DNP) products.1 There were no Counterfeit products identified in the 2016 Consumer Survey, an observation consistent with previous years. Cheap whites accounted for approximately 1.7% of Total Consumption in 2016 (equivalent to an estimated 360 million cigarettes), falling by 1.1pp in comparison with 2015. The largest brands included “Asali”, “M.M”, and “Victory”, and were mostly consumed in the southern region of Taiwan. The majority of cheap whites retail at around TWD 36–40 per pack, less than half the price of the Most Sold Brand of cigarettes. The incidence of other Illicit Whites increased to 2.8% in 2016, from 0.6% a year earlier. This growth is primarily attributed to growth in consumption of the brand “Bohem”, which retails at around TWD 70–75 per pack, again below the price of the Most Sold Brand. DNP cigarettes accounted for around 2.3% of Total Consumption in 2016, down from 3.2% in 2015. They were most prevalent in Central Taiwan, with an incidence of 3.7%. Over 98% of DNP cigarettes were Duty-Free labelled products, primarily Taiwan Duty-Free. Based on our estimates of Non-Domestic Legal Inflows, we estimate that around 60% of DNP cigarettes (equivalent to 1.4% of Total Consumption) entered Taiwan via legal channels.2 The remaining 40% or nearly 340 million cigarettes are therefore assumed to be illicit (including 338 million Duty-Free labelled products). The increase in the volume of other Illicit Whites in 2016 has more than offset a decline in the consumption of cheap whites and illicit DNP products. As such, Illicit Consumption rose by 6.3% in comparison with 2015. The government expects an increase in attempted smuggling in the years ahead, given the increase in the Excise Tax implemented in May 2017. In response, it is adopting measures to step up enforcement activities in anticipation. These include an increase in the reach of anti-smuggling patrols from 12 miles offshore to 24 miles offshore.

1010

Taiwan: Consumption breakdown 2015

Source: IT Flows Model and Oxford Economics

0

0 5

5

10

10

15

15

20

20

25

25

30

30

35

35

40

40

Cigarettes bn

Cigarettes bn

Total 36.2

Legal Domestic

Sales33.8

33.7Legal

Domestic Consumption

Outflows of duty-paid 0.02

Cheap Whites / Other / DNP 1.6

Illicit Inflows

Non-Domestic Legal Inflows

Duty-Free labelled products 0.30.5

0


1111

Source Comment

Euromonitor Passport, 2017 Euromonitor estimates an Illicit Incidence of 15.2% in 2016. The methodology, sampling and coverage are unknown, so it is difficult to assess the robustness of this estimate.

Lee & Chen survey (2006). Retrieved via http://eurpub.oxfordjournals.org/content/19/1/23

A consumer survey by Lee & Chen survey (2006) suggested one-third of respondents had used illicit cigarettes, and 20% used them regularly. Applying the average daily consumption of 15 cigarettes produces an Illicit Incidence of 3.4% or 1.3 billion cigarettes. This estimate is based on much older data than the Consumer Panel Survey that forms the basis of the OE estimate of Illicit Consumption.

Taiwan: Other Estimates

Taiwan

Taiwan: Alternative estimates of Illicit Consumption

0

5

10

15

20

25

“Bottom up”consumption

(2014)

Euromonitor(2016)

KPMG(2016)

Rohan Pike(2016)

OxfordEconomics

(2016)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12%

Ahsan et al.(2013)

Euromonitor(2014)

Gadjah MadaUniversity

(2014)

OxfordEconomics

(2013)

Oxford Economics

(2014)

5 .210.9

6.0

0.10.6

11.7

8.0 8.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35%


(2014)

Euromonitor(2014)

Oxford Economics

(2014)

18.6

30.6

3.80

3

6

9

12

15%

Euromonitor(2014)


(2014)

OxfordEconomics

(2014)

14.6

5.83.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60%

“Bottom up” consumption (2014)

Oxford Economics(2014)

34.5

51.9

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40%

Euromonitor(2014)

Oxford Economics (2014)

0.1

0.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40%



1.3

35.7

0

20

40

60

80

100%

“Bottom up” consumption(2015)


100.0 100.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60%

National AdultTobacco Survey

(2011)


(2011)

OxfordEconomics

(2015)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60%


(2011)

Hajinoor(2012)

NielsenMalaysia(2016)

Euromonitor(2016)

OxfordEconomics

(2016)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35%

“Bottom up” consumption(2014)


6.8

57.9

5.0

27.525.2

11.9

1.9

0

10

20

30

40

50%

Euromonitor(2014)

Nielsen(2014)


(2013)

OxfordEconomics

(2013)

OxfordEconomics

(2014)

25.2 22.8 23.7 21.8

40.6

0

1

2

3

4

5%

Euromonitor(2014)


(2014)

OxfordEconomics

(2014)

0.6

3.2

4.2

0

5

10

15

20

25%

VietnamTobacco

Association(2014)


(2014)

Nielsen RetailAudit (2014)

Euromonitor(2014)

OxfordEconomics

(2014)

20.6 21.2 18.6 18.222.1

Loose Tobacco

Cigarettes

7.8

10.9

7.9

8.9 7.3

32.1

19.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40%



1.3

35.757.1

16.5

34.1

51.052.3

0

5

10

15

20%

Lee & Chen(2006)

Euromonitor(2016)


5.53.4

15.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30%

Chen et al(2012)


(2015)

Euromonitor (2016)

OxfordEconomics

(2016)


http://eurpub.oxfordjournals.org/content/19/1/23

http://eurpub.oxfordjournals.org/content/19/1/23

1212

Taiwan: Data Sources

Primary source Calculation Comments

Legal Domestic Sales (LDS)

Actual shipments for PM brands and PM estimates for other companies based on Nielsen Retail Audit.

— —

Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes

Empty Pack Survey data in other markets covered in this Report.

Empty Pack Survey data in other markets used to identify the presence of packs bearing Taiwanese market-specific labelling (e.g. health warnings, tax stamps etc.).

Limited number of Taiwan domestic Market Variant cigarettes identified in other markets.

Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC)

— Legal Domestic Sales minus Outflows of legal sales.

Limited Outflows of duty-paid cigarettes so Legal Domestic Sales and Legal Domestic Consumption closely aligned.

Total Non-Domestic Inflows (ND)

— Sum of Non-Domestic Legal and Non-Domestic Illicit.

—


— Estimated using passenger data, smoking rates, and passenger duty-free personal import allowance.

Maximum theoretical amount an individual can carry across a border. Passenger data from the Tourism Bureau, M.O.T.C Republic of China (Taiwan).

Non-Domestic Illicit Consumer Panel Survey. Based on Consumer Panel Survey plus OE estimates.

Estimate derived from the 2016 H1 Consumer Survey. Illicit cigarettes in Taiwan consist mostly of cheap white cigarettes (believed to be smuggled in from neighbouring markets), but Taiwan Duty-Free are also significant. See Report methodology for more details.

Domestic Illicit — Zero under-declaration of domestically produced cigarettes.

There is assumed to be no under-declaration of domestically produced cigarettes. Based on market intelligence, cheap cigarettes identified in Taiwan are assumed to be produced abroad.

Total Illicit Consumption — Sum of Non-Domestic Illicit and Domestic Illicit.

—

Total Consumption — Legal Domestic Sales minus Outflows of domestic duty-paid cigarettes, plus estimated Non-Domestic Legal consumption, plus estimated Illicit Consumption.

The IT Flows Model estimate of consumption is 36.2 billion cigarettes for 2016.

Total Tax Loss — Total Illicit Consumption multiplied by the weighted average tax rates (Excise Tax, GST, and Earmarked Taxes).

See Report methodology for more details.


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Asia Illicit Tobacco Indicator 2016: Taiwanillicittobacco.oxfordeconomics.com/media/OXFO5304_Taiwan... · 2017. 11. 9. · Taiwan Legal Domestic Sales are estimated at 33.8 billion