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ASIA AND PACIFIC COMMISSION ON AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS
TWENTY-SIXTH SESSIONThimphu, Bhutan, 15-19 February 2016
Agenda Item 6.4
Food Security Statistics in the transition from the Millennium Development Goals to the Sustainable Development Goals
Contributed by: Carlo Cafiero, Project ManagerFAO Statistics Division, [email protected]
APCAS/16/6.4.1-2
FoodSecurityStatisticsinthetransitionfromthe
MillenniumDevelopmentGoalstothe
SustainableDevelopmentGoals
CarloCafiero,PhDProjectManager,FAOStatisticsDivision
Presentationgivenatthe26thsessionofthe
AsiaandPacificCommissiononAgriculturalStatisticsThimphu, Butan 15-19February2016
MillenniumDevelopmentGoals
Goal1:EradicateextremepovertyandhungerTarget1.C:Halve,between1990and2015,theproportionofpeoplewhosuffer
fromhunger
Indicator1.8:Prevalenceofunderweightchildrenunder-fiveyearsofage(WHO/UNICEF/WORLDBANK)
Indicator1.9:Proportionofpopulationbelowminimumlevelofdietaryenergyconsumption (FAO)
ThePrevalenceofUndernourishment
• ExistingindicatorproducedbyFAOsince1974,andusedtomonitortheWorldFoodSummit(WFS)goal
• Undernourishment(French:sous-alimentation;Spanish: sub-alimentación)isdefinedastheconditionofanindividualbywhichhabitualfoodconsumptionlevelsdonotprovidesufficientdietaryenergytocovernormalrequirementsforanactiveandhealthylife
• While,inprinciple,assessmentcouldbebasedontheanalysisofindividualfoodconsumptionanddemographicdata,inpracticethisisdifficultduetothehighcostofcollectingthemonaregular,frequentbasis
• GlobalmonitoringbyFAOhasbeenpossiblethankstotheintegrationofdatafromdifferentsources:nationalfoodbalances,populationdataandhouseholdexpenditure/consumptionsurveys
ThePrevalenceofUndernourishment
• Estimatesareobtainedthroughastatisticalmodeloftheprobabilitydistributionforhabitual,dailydietaryenergyconsumptionlevelsinapopulation
• Lackingindividualdietaryintakeassessments,amodelisnecessarytoovercometheimpossibilitytomatchfoodconsumptionwithfoodrequirementsattheindividuallevel
• LimitedunderstandingoftheFAOPoUmodelhasspurredunfoundedcriticism
• Lackofsufficientlyreliable,disaggregateddata,hasallowedthusfaronlyestimatesofthePoUatnationallevelsandif>5%
• Soundmethodstoanalyzeexistingdataonthefoodconsumptionpatternsofhouseholdsandindividualsareneeded,while,atthesametime,moreandbetterdatamaybeneededinthefuture
OverviewofglobalfoodsecurityTheStateofFoodInsecurityintheWorldMeetingthe2015internationalhungertargets:takingstockofunevenprogress
TheMDGTarget1Chasbeenalmostmet
• Forthegroupofcountriesindevelopingregionsasawhole,thePoUdroppedfrom23.3%to12.9%(areductionofmorethan45%)
• Thetargethasbeenmetin• EasternAsia• South-EasternAsia• CaucasusandCentralAsia• LatinAmerica
• 73outof129developingcountriesmonitoredhavereachedtheMDGhungertarget
23.3%
18.2% 17.3%
14.1%12.9%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
PercentagePrevalenceofUndernourishmentinDevelopingRegions
Prevalence MDGtargetNote:Datafor2014–16 refertoprovisional estimates.Source:FAO
<5.0
<5.0
7.0
8.4
9.6
9.6
14.2
15.7
19.8
23.0
<5.0
13.9
14.1
6.4
30.6
23.2
15.7
23.9
27.0
33.2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
NorthernAfrica
LatinAmerica
CaucasusandCentralAsia
WesternAsia
South-EasternAsia
EasternAsia
Oceania
SouthernAsia
Caribbean
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Percentageundernourished
1990-92
2014-16*
Source:FAO.
MDGtarget
…buttheWFSgoalhasbeenmissed
• Areductionofonly213millionundernourishedpeopleintheworldsince1990-92(areductionof21.5%)
• Duringthesameperiod,worldpopulationhasgrownby1.9billion• However,29outof129monitoredcountrieshaveachievedtheWFSgoal• Progresshasbeenfasterinthelastdecade
• 793millionareestimatedstilltobeundernourishedintheworldin2014-16
• 778millionofthemliveindevelopingregions
991909 927
805 778
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
NumberofUndernourishedinDevelopingRegions
Number WFSTarget
Millions
Note:Datafor2014–16 refertoprovisional estimates.Source:FAO
2014-16 Estimates, by region Number(millions)
Share (%)
Southern Asia 281 35.5Sub-Saharan Africa 218 27.5Eastern Asia 145 18.3South-Eastern Asia 61 7.6Latin America & the Caribbean 34 4.3Western Asia 19 2.4Northern Africa 4 0.5Caucasus & Central Asia 6 0.7Oceania 1 0.2Developed regions 15 1.9Total 793 100.0
Forthegroupofcountriesindevelopingregions,thetwoindicatorsrevealsimilartrends
InSouth-EasternAsiaundernourishmentdeclinedfaster:roomtoimprovefoodutilization
Thecorrelatesofsuccess
1. Economicgrowthisnecessarybutnotsufficient.Itneedstobeinclusivetoreachthepoorest
2. Increasingproductivityofsmallholder &familyfarmingimproves incomesandaccesstofood
3. Socialprotection (e.g.school-feeding, cashtransfers)isdoubly effective:a. Reduceshungerdirectlyb. Fosterseconomicopportunitiesandbuildsresilience
4. Accesstoruralmarketsprovidesmarketandemploymentopportunities5. Internationaltradeopennessdeliversbenefits, butalsorisks6. Protractedcrisesseverelyimpactfoodsecurity:
a. Resultingfrombynaturalorhuman-madedisasters(e.g.conflicts,politicalinstability)b. Ofthe20countriesinprotractedcrisis,onlyEthiopiareachedtheMDGhungertarget
• Sustainedpoliticalcommitmentatthehighestlevel,andsoundinstitutionsandpolicies,areprerequisitesforhungereradication
SustainableDevelopmentGoals
Goal2:“Endhunger,achievefoodsecurityandimprovednutritionandpromotesustainableagriculture”
Target2.1- “By2030,endhungerandensureaccessbyallpeople,inparticularthepoorandpeopleinvulnerablesituations,includinginfants,tosafe,nutritiousandsufficientfoodallyearround”
• Indicator2.1.1:Prevalenceofundernourishment• Indicator2.1.2:Prevalenceofmoderateorseverefoodinsecurityinthepopulation,basedontheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)
SustainableDevelopmentGoals
• IAEG-SDG isinchargeofthedefinitionoftheSDGmonitoringframework• MembersarerepresentativesofNationalStatisticalAuthorities (FAOandotherInternationalOrganizationsareobservers)
• Canendorsementofanindicatorbetakenasanimplicitcommitmenttoproducethedatanecessaryforitsimplementation?Webelieveitdoes.
• Asanoutcomeofthe2nd meetinginBangkok,anoteondatadisaggregationwasissued:
“SDGindicatorsshouldbedisaggregatedwhererelevantbyincome,sex,age,race,ethnicity,migratorystatus,disabilityandgeographiclocation,orothercharacteristics,inaccordancewiththeFundamentalPrinciplesofOfficialStatistics”
Twodifferentagendas
MDGs SDGs
Geographicalscope DevelopingRegions Universal
Focus Nationallevel “Leaveno-onebehind”
Ambition “Halvetheproportion…”(orbringitbelow5%) “Eradicate…End…”
Governance U.N.ledprocess Countrydriven
ThePrevalenceofUndernourishment
• InmonitoringtheSDGTarget2.1,thePoUshouldbecomputedforallcountriesintheworldandbeabletocapturealsolevelsthatarelessthan5%
• Having350millionundernourished(roughly5%oftheworldpopulation)wouldstillbeveryfarfromeradication
• Itshouldbecomputedalsoforsub-nationalpopulationgroups• Thisisgoingtobepossibleonlythroughexpandeduseofsurveydataandonlyifaconcerted,strongeffortismadeinimprovingthequalityoffoodconsumptiondata collectedvialarge-scalenationalsurveys
ThePrevalenceofUndernourishment
• RelevantFAOActivities• Improvedmethods forthecompilationofFoodBalanceSheets(FBS)andresearchonreconciliationoffoodconsumptiondatafromFBSandfromhouseholdsurveys
• DefinitionofaharmonizedFoodConsumptionModuleforinclusion inanyEconomicorLivingStandardMeasurementsurvey
• Datavalidationandanalysisthrough theADePT FoodConsumptionModule• TechnicalassistanceontheuseoftheADePT FoodConsumptionModule
• Recommendations• AgriculturalStatisticunitstocoordinatewithEconomic,SocialandHealthStatisticsunitstointegrateavailableinformationsourcesonfoodconsumption
• Elementarydatafromhouseholdbudgetandexpenditure/consumptionsurveyssharedwithFAOStatistics
TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)
• ThisnewindicatorhasbeenchosenalsoasaresultofinformationprovidedbyFAOonthesuccessfulapplicationoftheFIESin146differentcountriesandterritoriesintheworldin2014,withinthe“VoicesoftheHungry”(VoH)project
• Atechnicalreporton“Methodsforestimatingcomparableprevalenceratesoffoodinsecurityexperiencedbyadultsthroughouttheworld”hasbeenprepared
• HeadsofstatisticalofficesofmostcountriesintheworldhavehadtheopportunitytoreviewthedraftTechnicalReportandtheresultsitcontains
• Itwillbereleasedforpublicuselaterthismonth
TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)
• Experience-basedfoodsecurityscaleshavelongbeenusedintheUS,Canada,Brazilandseveralothercountriesforregularmonitoringofthefoodinsecurityconditionofhouseholds.
• Inallthesecasesestimatesareobtainedatnationalandsubnationallevels,asthedataarecollectedinlarge-scalesurveys,representativealsoatStateorDistrictlevel.
• Estimatesarebasedondatacollectedthroughsimplequestionnairesforpersonalinterviewsincludedatverylowcostinface-to-faceortelephonesurveys.
TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)
• Buildingontheexperiencewithexistingfoodsecurityscales,the“VoicesoftheHungry”projectwasestablishedbyFAO– andgenerouslysupportedbytheGovernmentoftheUKandBelgium– torespondtotwoveryimportantextantquestions:
• Whetherornotexperiencebasedscalesaresufficientlyrobustforapplicationinabroaderrangeofcountriesthatdifferbylanguage,culture,developmentandfoodsecuritycondition
• Whetheracommonstandardreferencescalecouldbecreated,toallowcalibrationofthemeasuresobtainedindifferentcountries.
TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)
• TheFIESwasdevelopedasadirectderivationoftheexistingEscalaLatinoamericanayCaribeña deSeguridad Alimentaria (ELCSA),itselfderivedinturnfromtheUSHouseholdFoodSecuritySurveyModule(HFSSM).
• IthasbeenadaptedforusethroughtheGallupWorldPoll(GWP),aninternationalsurveyestablishedin2005byGallupInc.,whichreachesabout160,000peoplefrommorethan150countrieseveryyear.
• FAOhascontractedGalluptocollectFIESdataonitsbehalfin2014,2015and2016,withaplantocontinueuntil2018.
TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)
• Resultsfromthefirsttwoyearsofdatacollectionshavebeenexceptionallygood.
• Aglobalreferencemetricfortheseverityofhouseholdorindividualfoodinsecurityhasbeenestablished
• MethodstocalibratethemeasuresobtainedfromtheFIESoranyoftheotherexistingcompatiblescales(EBIA,HFSSM,ELCSA,etc.)havebeendeveloped
• Severitythresholdscanbedefinedunambiguouslytodefineclassesoffoodinsecuritythatareequivalentacrosscountries
• Apanelofexpertsinthefieldsofstatistics,metrology,educationalmeasurement,econometrics,andfoodsecurityanalysis,convenedinaScientificWorkshopatFAOinMay2015,thoroughlyreviewedtheFIESmethodology
• Resultsfor2014havebeenpeerreviewedbyNSO’s
TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)
• ResultsfromtheVoicesoftheHungryprojectforeachindividualcountryonlyapplyatthenational level
• Theonly feasibledisaggregation isbysex.Inafewcases,byurbanandruralareas.
• Thelonger-term objective isthatnationalinstitutionstakeoverthetaskofestimatingtheprevalenceoffoodinsecurityinthepopulation,usingtheFIES,atnationalandsubnationallevel,withthemethodologyandtheharmonizedstandardprovidedbyFAO
• Itisrecommendedthatcountries includetheFIESinlarge-scalenationalpopulation survey
• Averageestimatedsurveytimelessthanthreeminutes• Validatedquestionnairesareavailableinthemorethan200differentlanguages• FAOstandsreadytoprovideanynecessarytechnicalsupport
Questionsfordiscussion
• ArecountriesreadytoreportonthePoUatnationalandsubnationallevel,usingFAOmethodology?
• Whatkindoftechnicalassistanceisneeded?
• Istherescopeforcoordinatingontheuseofcommonsurveytoolsforthecollectionoffoodconsumptiondata?
• HowfeasibleisthattheFIESbeincludedinfuturenationalsurveys?• HowthetwoFAOindicatorsrelatetootherinitiativesforfoodsecurityassessment(e.g.,theIntegratedPhaseClassification?)
