ASIA AND PACIFIC COMMISSION ON AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS · APCAS26, 2016 –Thimphu, Bhutan -15-19 December 2016 5 To meet the growing need for consistent statistics to measure the

APCAS26,2016– Thimphu,Bhutan- 15-19December2016

ASIA AND PACIFIC COMMISSION ON AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

TWENTY-SIXTH SESSIONThimphu, Bhutan, 15-19 February 2016

Agenda Item 8

Macro-Economic Statistics for Agriculture: New FAO Global Databases on Agricultural Capital Stock (ACS) and Agro-Industry Measurement (AIM)

Contributed by: Sangita Dubey, FAO Statistics [email protected]

APCAS/16/8.1


APCAS26: Thimphu, Butan, 15-19 February 2016

Macro-EconomicStatisticsforAgriculture:NewFAOGlobalDatabasesonAgriculturalCapitalStock(ACS)andAgro-IndustryMeasurement(AIM)

Sangita Dubey, Marie Vander Donckt & Rachele Brivio

Statistics Division, FAO


OutlineofPresentation

I. Introduction

II. Methodology

III. Keyfindings

IV. Questionsfordiscussion

V. Proposedrecommendations


4

I.Introduction– keypolicyissues• Aseconomiesgrowanddevelop,sectorsbecomemoreinterrelatedandincreasingly

integratedintonewindustrialdynamics

• Difficulttodeterminetheoverallimpactofagricultureduetotheselinkages;measuringonlyAgriculturevalue-addedunderstatessector’simportance.

ØWhatisthesector’s fullcontribution totheeconomyandfoodsecurity,through itsroleintheagro-industryvalue-chain? HowdoesAgriculture linktootherindustries,suchasfertilizerproduction, foodprocessing,manufacturing, transportation,wholesaleandretaildistribution? Howdoesitgeneratejobsandvalue-addedinthesedownstreamindustries?

• Agricultureremainslessproductiveindevelopingcountries,inpartduetolowercapitalinvestment.

• Criticalissueasinvestmentincapitalraisesproductivityandrealincomes.

Ø Whatisthelevelofcapital stockandcapitalinvestment(GrossFixedCapitalFormation–GFCF)acrosscountriesandtime?HowdoesthislevelandgrowthimpactAgriculturalproductivity,value-added,food-securityandrealincomes?


5

Tomeetthegrowingneedforconsistentstatisticstomeasurethecontributiontotheagro-industryvalue-chain,includingagricultureandlinkedindustriesandtheroleofcapitalinagriculturalproduction,FAO’sStatisticsDivision(ESS)beganconstructionofGLOBAL MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS databaseson:

- Agro-IndustryMeasurement(AIM)(jointlywithUNIDO)

- AgriculturalCapitalStockandRelatedStructuralStatistics

I.Introduction


AgricultureshareofGDPisnowhighestinAfrica,andcontinuestodeclineinAsia&Pacificcountries


7/19

Asia&thePacific’scontributiontoGlobalAgriculturalvalue-addedgrewfrom35%to50%between1970and2013…

…whileAfrica’scontributionremainedaround10%


8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000VA,FOOD&BEV

ERAG

ESOVE

RTO

TAL

AGRICU

LTURE

GDPPERCAPITA(2005USD)

GDPPERCAPITA(2005 USD)AGAINSTRELATIVESIZEOF FOODPROCESSINGANDBEVERAGE VS.AGRICULTURE,

CROSS-COUNTRY,1990-2013

(*) OECD&BRICcountries,Bulgaria,Taiwan,Cyprus,Indonesia,Latvia,Lithuania,Malta,Romania.Foreachcountry, 5-yearsaverages.

Intheagro-foodvalue-chain, foodprocessing risesrelativetoagricultureasGDPpercapitarises.


9

UNDERLYINGPHILOSPHY:

UseNationalAccountsframeworktoharmonizedataacrosscountries/time

Minimizerespondentburden,duplication&resourcerequirements

Ø collaboratewithotherinternationalorganizationstouseofficialcountrydataandexistingglobaldatabasesbasedonofficialcountrydata

TheAIMandAgricultureCapitalStock(ACS)databasesareANALYTICAL databasesprovidingPROVISIONALdataandindicators.

Ø Documentdatasources,assumptionsandunderlyingmethodologyinmetadata.

Ø Validateapproach&resultswithcountryofficialsandotherexperts

Ø Improvedatawithvalidatedassumptionsandnewofficialstatistics

II.Methodology- GeneralApproach

Officialcountrydataarethebackboneofthedatabasesandproposedindicators


Identifyandbridgedataacrosssources.• OECD:STANandNAdatabases

• WIOD:Socioeconomicaccounts;WorldKLEMS

• UnitedNations:NationalAccountsEstimatesandOfficialCountryDatatables

• UNIDO:INDSTATdatabases

Createcomplete timeseriesscaledtoNationalAccounts

• Useofficialcountrydatawherepossible

• Focusonkeyvariables• Imputemissingvaluesinexistingseries

• Imputemissingserieswherepossible

• Disaggregatebyindustrysub-sector,wherepossible

Calculaterelevantindicators

• Shareindicators:VAshareofGDP;sectorshareofindustry(FBTshareofManufacturing;AgricultureshareofAgriculture-Forestry-Fishing)

• Other:Investmentratios(GFCFshareofVA),Agriculture-orientationindex(AOI)

II.Methodology- GeneralApproach,NationalAccountsFramework


Variables,LCU&USD• Value-added

• GrossOutput

• Employment,CompensationofEmployees(wages&salaries)

• CapitalStockandCapitalFormation,etc.(forACSdatabase)

• Includetradevariables(exports,imports)forandGFCFinAIMdatabase,subjecttofunding

SectorCoverage• Agriculture,ForestryandFisheries(ISICRev3A+B)

• Agriculture

• Manufacturing,andFoodProcessing

• Extendtoforestryandfisheries;otheragro-basedmanufacturing;disaggregateFBTbycommodity,subjecttofunding

Geographic&Timecoverage• 220+countriesforcapitalstockdatabase

• 46initialcountries(OECD,BRICS+)inAIMdatabase

• 1970-2013forACSdata• 1990-2013forAIMdata• ExtendFBTinAIMdatabasetodevelopingcountriesreportingdatatoUNIDO(underway)

II.Methodology- Coverage


Old FAOSTAT Methodology…

Estimate capital stock using the physical

inventory approach, which adds up the

sector’s components of produced assets:

machinery & equipment, livestock,

orchards, land improvements

Approach evaluated and abandoned:

- Data quality issues: low response rates,

incomplete data reported by countries, particularly for machinery and equipment ;

- Methodological issues in the calculation of

components such as land development or machinery and equipment;

- Limited country coverage: only for select countries, and only on narrow agriculture

sector, excluding forestry and fisheries.

New FAOSTAT Methodology…

Use existing country data where

available.

Where unavailable, estimate capital stock

using the PERPETUAL INVENTORY METHODwith double declining balances

⇒Kt = Kt-1 + GFCFt – Depreciationt

Requires assumptions about initial capital stock and depreciation rates (DR).

Ø OECD: DR = 0.08 (reported data)

Ø Developing countries: 0.04 < DR < 0.08

(estimate)

12

II.Methodology- AgriculturalCapitalStock(ACS)


MOTIVATION:

• Assess agriculture’s contribution to the

economy.

DEFINITION ISSUE

• AGRO-INDUSTRY VALUE CHAIN involves all

economic activities in the production and

distribution of products that originate

from or are used in the production of

agriculture output. It is Farm-to-Fork +.

• But no clear statistical definition exists,

resulting in confusion between agro-

industry, agro-food, agro-business

concepts

AIM database methodology

ü Start with food-processing sector for

select countries; develop complete

time series of key variables for select

countries, based on UNIDO data.

ü Validate approach

ü Expand coverage to other countries

(UNIDO)

• Prioritize next steps, subject to funding:

• Expand variables (GFCF, trade)

• Disaggregate food-processing sector

• Include other relevant manufacturing

sectors (e.g. textiles, furniture manufacturing) that use agro inputs

• Statistically define “Agro-industry”

13

II.Methodology– Agro-IndustryMeasurement(AIM)


• Databases, methodologies presented

evaluated and discussed by national,

international and academic experts:

• UNIDO seminar on Industrial Statistics:

Vienna, October 2015

• FAO workshop on Agricultural Capital Stock

and Related Statistics: Rome, November 2015

• FAO-UNIDO expert group meeting on AIM:

Rome, November 2015

• OECD meeting on Environmentally Adjusted

Total Factor Productivity: Paris, December

2015

• African Commission on Agriculture Statistics

(AFCAS): Kigali, December 2015

• Asia and Pacific Commission on Agriculture

Statistics (AFCAS): Thimphu, February 2016

• Key comments and recommendations

to date:

• Methodologies evaluated as robust.

• Recommended continued use of official

country data, where possible.

• Document methodology, estimation

procedures, data limitations.

• Publish data, metadata , documentation for further validation /feedback.

• Continue dialogues with countries to fill data gaps and improve estimations.

14

II.Methodology– Validation&ResultstoDate


III.KeyFindings– AgriculturalCapitalStock:LargestglobalsharesofAgriculturecapitalareinEuropeandinAsia&thePacific


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

France,1990-2013

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Spain, 1990-2013

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Brazil,1990-2013

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

China, 1995-2013

Contribution ofAgriculture (blue) andFoodProcessing (red)toGDP

III.KeyFindings– AIM:AgricultureandfoodprocessingshareofGDPvarybylevelofeconomicdevelopment


Contribution ofAgriculture (blue) andFoodProcessing (red)toGDP

III.KeyFindings– AIM:AgricultureandfoodprocessingshareofGDPvarybylevelofeconomicdevelopment

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Japan,1990-2013

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

India,1990-2012

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

NewZealand,1990-2012

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Australia,1990-2013


(*)Cross-countryweightedsharesalongthetimedimension

0.15

0.17

0.19

0.21

0.23

0.25

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.11

0.13

0.15

0.17

0.19

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

EXAMPLEOFCOMPOSITIONEFFECT- THE2008-2010ECONOMICCRISIS

FBasashareofManufacturing,Left-axis

ManufacturingasashareofTotalEconomy,Right-axis

III.KeyFindings– AIM:foodprocessingindevelopedcountriesisrelatively incomeinelastic


• Arethereothersourcesofofficialcountrydatathatcouldbeused?

• Isinformationavailableonappropriatedepreciationratesforagriculturalcapitalstockand,inparticular,foragriculturemachineryandequipment?

• AretherecountrieswillingtocollaboratewithESStosharethistypeofdata/information/studies fortheircountry,andassessitsimpactontheresultingestimates?

• Iffundingisavailable,whatdomembercountriessuggestasprioritynextstepsindevelopingtheAIMdatabaseandimprovingthecapitalstockdatabase?

III.Questionsfordiscussion


APCASmembercountriessupporttheESSapproachtoconstructingtheAgriculturalCapitalStockandAIMdatabases,andencourageESStopublishthesedataasprovisionalanalyticaldatabases,toenablevalidationandfeedback.

APCASmembersagreetoprovideofficialcountryestimatesonagriculturalcapitalstockandothervariables,wherepossible,orinformationtoimproveestimates,suchasagriculturedepreciationrates.

APCASmembercountriesagreetoparticipateinaFAO-UNIDOprocesstodevelopaninternationalstatisticaldefinitionof“agro-industry”,basedonexistingclassificationsystems,andtosharedefinitionsusedatcountrylevel.

IV.Proposedrecommendations


Formoreinformation,questions,orsuggestions,pleasecontact:

SangitaDubey,SeniorStatisticianresponsibleforEconomicStatistics([email protected])

Ms.MarieVanderDonckt,NationalAccountant([email protected])

Documents

ASIA AND PACIFIC COMMISSION ON AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS · APCAS26, 2016 –Thimphu, Bhutan -15-19 December 2016 5 To meet the growing need for consistent statistics to measure the