[Arup] Have You Wondered What GDP Means

  • Published on
    09-Sep-2015

  • View
    2

  • Download
    0

DESCRIPTION

Arup

Transcript

  • Foresight + Research + Innovation 1

    Have You Wondered What GDP Means?An introduction to diagrams of the UK economy using Arups 7see model

  • This booklet is a product of Arup Foresight + Research + Innovation (FRI).The FRI team identifi es and monitors the trends and issues likely to have a signifi cant impact upon the built environment and society at large. We research and raise awareness about the major challenges affecting the built environment and their implications. We help clients think more creatively about the long-term future, and manage risk and uncertainty more effectively.

    Arup is an independent consultancy providing professional services in management, planning, design and engineering. As a global fi rm we draw on the skills and expertise of nearly 12,000 consultants across a wide range of disciplines. Arups dedication to exploring innovative strategies and looking beyond the constraints of individual specialisms allows the fi rm to deliver holistic, multi-disciplinary solutions for clients.

    Simon RobertsAssociate Directorsimon.roberts@arup.com

    13 Fitzroy StreetLondon W1T 4BQarup.com driversofchange.com

    An introduction to diagrams of the UK economy using Arups 7see model

    Have You Wondered What GDP Means?

    Simon Roberts

    An introduction to diagrams of the UK economy using Arups 7see model

  • Author: Simon RobertsDesign: Elisa MagniniPicture editors: Felicitas zu Dohna, Daniel Imade

    This publication is made available under a Creative Commons Attribution - No Derivatives 4.0 International license (CC-BY-ND 4.0). The license covers all text and graphics in the booklet except for the photos listed on page 35. You are free to copy and redistribute the material for any purpose under the following terms: You must give the credit, Have You Wondered What GDP Means? (www.

    arup.com/gdp) by Simon Roberts/Arup (www.arup.com) CC-BY-ND 4.0. You must provide a link to the license, creativecommons.org/licenses/by-

    nd/4.0/. You must indicate if changes were made.You may make changes in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you may not distribute the modifi ed material.

    A digital copy can be downloaded for free at www.arup.com/gdp.

    This booklet should be cited as: S.H. Roberts (2014). Have you ever wondered what GDP means?, Arup,

    London, ISBN 978-0-9562121-8-4

    For the photos listed on page 35, either their authors have given permission only to include their work here and not to share it under a Creative Commons license, or the individual license differs from the one used in the overall publication. If you are interested in using their photos, please contact these authors directly.

    While this publication intends to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered, neither the publisher nor the author makes any representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of information contained in this booklet, nor do they accept legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made.

    Published by Ove Arup & Partners Ltd, 13 Fitzroy Street, London W1T 4BQ, UK

    Copyright July 2014 Arup

    ISBN 978-0-9562121-8-4 (pbk) ISBN 978-0-9929501-0-1 (ebk)

    Contents

    7

    11

    21

    27

    33

    39

    42

    Introduction

    Jobs, energy and economic volume fl ows

    Transport

    Population and jobs

    Balance of payments

    Insights

    Further information

  • Foresight + Research + Innovation 7

    GDP (gross domestic product) is probably the most well-known economic statistic. It is a highly effective measure of economic activity giving insight into a countrys economy and enabling comparison with other countries. On the other hand, GDP is also viewed by many as a poor measure of the standard of living or welfare. Yet few understand how GDP is defi ned and what exactly it describes.

    Starting from a tangible perspective, consider a birds eye view of a country. Much of what is visible has economic relevance. A sea border delineates part of an economys limit, with the import and export trade of goods focused at ports. Next to these docklands might be manufacturing, large and small. Progressing into the town where many people work will be offi ces, retail outlets and other types of services. Around the urban centre will be the suburbs of housing. Beyond this, stretching across the country will be rural areas for agriculture, resources, recreation and transport networks.

    Just as maps effectively capture the physical geography, this booklet introduces a set of maps to unpick the components of GDP. The tool for this is Arups 7see framework - a methodology for handling data about a country. It provides maps for reading many aspects of how an economy works. It marries resources, the built environment, goods, services, international money transactions and people. This framework is innovative in both its format and the way it provides insights.

    Introduction

    Few understand how GDP is defi ned and what exactly it describes

  • Have You Wondered What GDP Means?8 Foresight + Research + Innovation 9

    While a birds eye view is good for appreciating the overall capacity and constraints of an economy, we also need to capture the detail. After all, a people perspective is what we each experience. A microcosm of an economy might be a farmer, fi rst growing produce then becoming a retailer as he works at his own market stall, interfacing directly with the consumer, his customers. The challenge is to capture this spectrum.

    The maps introduced in this booklet are actually Sankey diagrams in which line widths are proportional to the volume of fl ows. These 7see Sankey diagrams provide both an overall picture and close-up views in detail of any particular fl ow. They also map relationships. While energy fl ows are often represented by Sankey methods, extending this approach to the economy and balance of payments is novel.

    Four 7see Sankey diagrams are introduced in this booklet with data from the UK economy for 2011. Jobs, energy and economic volume fl ows Transport Population and jobs Balance of payments

    Each diagram has an explanation on a fold-out fl ap that can be read alongside the graphic. The booklet can also be used as a learning resource by folding closed the explanation to reveal a list of questions.

    7see Sankey diagrams provide both an overall picture and close-up views

  • Foresight + Research + Innovation 1110

    serviceindustry

    manu-facturing

    construc-tion

    electricityfrom

    combustion

    nuclear &renewables

    serviceindustry

    manu-facturing

    construc-tion

    electricityfrom

    combustion

    nuclear &renewables

    p. 14

    Jobs, energy and economic volume fl ows

    The 7see approach to representing the economy begins by considering the built environment and other physical assets. Formally known as fi xed capital, they are an important starting point because they are constrained in some way: they take time to create, they are expensive to build and they are tied to a location or are long lived. Along with buildings and structures, fi xed capital also consists of plant, machinery and transport equipment.

    The main role of fi xed capital within the economy is that it is where inputs are converted to outputs; in other words, the process of production. The photos opposite are examples of fi xed capital. Power generation consists of power stations which convert fuel inputs to electricity. Manufacturing industry produces goods. Construction industry consists of construction equipment. Service industry is a broad grouping, including distribution, hotels, communications, fi nance, public administration, defence, education, health and social work.

    In the 7see Sankey diagrams on the following pages, all fi xed capital is represented by yellow boxes with Sankey lines entering and leaving. Also shown opposite is an excerpt from the Sankey diagrams of how these examples of fi xed capital appear. (There is no signifi cance to the dimensions of the boxes.)

    The next pages introduce Sankey line concepts for economic volume fl ows, energy and jobs.

    Fixed capital within the economy is where inputs are converted to outputs

  • 12 Foresight + Research + Innovation 13

    IMPORTS EXPORTS

    agriculture

    goods

    services

    tax

    intermediate consumption

    serviceindustry

    construction

    goods

    tax

    manu-facturing

    distribution& retail

    construc-tion

    utilities

    dwellings

    services

    rental

    construc-tion

    manu-facturing

    finalsupply

    tax

    extraction

    agriculture

    serviceindustry

    KEY economic volume flows (100b[1990]/y)

    inputs finished products

    final supply at purchasers prices

    goods

    construction

    services

    rental (actual + imputed)

    agriculture

    goods

    services

    imports at basic prices gross value added (GVA) at basic prices

    goods

    construction

    services

    agriculture

    extraction

    utilities

    G

    D

    P

    &

    i

    m

    p

    o

    r

    t

    s

    UK trading border

    The Sankey diagram opposite shows all the fi xed capital (the yellow boxes) of an economy divided into six industry groupings and dwellings. Sankey lines represent what are called economic volume fl ows, a good way to quantify goods and services. Their source, called gross value added (GVA), is always from fi xed capital. GVA is represented by lines emerging from the fi xed capital boxes. Their total is the output form of GDP.

    The outer rectangle is the system boundary of the countrys trading border. Imports enter on the left and merge with domestically-produced GVA. All fl ows are measured in money units, infl ation corrected to a reference year for comparison between years. Imports and GVA are at basic prices.

    Industries supply each other through intermediate consumption. Timber is GVA of agriculture and its input for goods is part of the line linking agriculture to manufacturing. Iron ore and other extracted resources are the line linking extraction to manufacturing for processing. Intermediate consumption is signifi cant between the three larger industries, so they each have a pair of boxes: GVA emanates from the left boxes; inputs from other industries enter the right boxes. They are enclosed within a dashed box to emphasise that they dont represent the actual sequence of production processes at this point. The usual format elsewhere for intermediate consumption data is as an input-output matrix, so the diagrammatic Sankey form here makes the relative sizes of fl ows more evident.

    Products on the right are in their fi nished form and measured at purchasers prices. The Sankey lines make clear the upstream inclusion of tax on products and contributions from other industries. For goods at the point of fi nal demand, a signifi cant contribution is distribution & retail.

    The expenditure form of GDP augmented by imports is the total at the point marked fi nal supply.

    Economic volume fl ows are a good way to quantify goods and services

  • 14 Foresight + Research + Innovation 15

    IMPORTS

    serviceindustry

    UK trading border

    manu-facturing

    construc-tion

    utilities

    other

    transport

    dwellings

    electricityfrom

    combustion

    nuclear &renewables

    other

    extraction

    agriculture

    refining

    EXPORTS

    inputsproducts

    crudeoil

    coal

    gas

    petroleumproducts

    other

    KEY

    crude oil

    petroleum products

    coal

    natural gas

    energy (500 PJ/y)

    electricity

    energy (200 TWh/y) KEY

    jobs

    serviceindustry

    other

    UK trading border

    manu-facturing

    construc-tion

    utilities

    dwellings

    inputsproducts

    extraction

    agriculture

    jobs

    people (10 million)

    The more common application of Sankey lines for fl ows from left to right are a countrys use of energy. These are shown opposite as inputs to the fi xed capital yellow boxes introduced earlier for industry groupings and dwellings.

    Important points for energy transformation are refi ning for crude oil to petroleum products and electricity from combustion. The types of fi xed capital for these are oil refi neries (part of manufacturing) and power generation (part of utilities).

    As with economic volume fl ows in the diagram introduced earlier, the outer rectangle represents the extent of the whole economy. Flows crossing this are imports of fuels and export of petroleum products.

    Whereas the GVA source of economic volume fl ows is shown earlier as emerging from fi xed capital boxes, the fi xed capital for domestic extraction of fossil fuels is simply shown here by square brackets.

    All the energy Sankey lines are in energy units. The key at the bottom details a different unit name for electricity but it is equivalent in size so that the energy loss as heat at electricity from combustion is evident.

    Just as energy is an input, so labour can be considered as an input to the fi xed capital of production. This is shown opposite in units of millions of the economically active population, as defi ned in the later section, Population and jobs.

    The Sankey formats shown here could be extended to other inputs, such as water, steel and cement.

    Just as energy is an input, so labour can be considered as an input

  • 1716

    IMPORTS EXPORTS

    tax

    intermediate consumption

    serviceindustry

    construction

    goods

    tax

    crudeoil

    crude oil(net)

    jobs

    other

    coal

    gas

    gas (net)

    coal (net)

    petroleum products (net)

    services

    goods

    agriculture

    NPISH

    household consumption

    investment

    goods

    services

    agriculture

    KEY

    UK trading border

    manu-facturing

    government

    distribution& retail

    construc-tion

    utilities

    other

    transport

    dwellings

    electricityfrom

    combustion

    nuclear &renewables

    services

    rental

    construc-tion

    manu-facturing

    finalsupply

    finaldemand

    G

    D

    P

    &

    i

    m

    p

    o

    r

    t

    stax

    other

    other

    inputs finished productsproducts

    extraction

    agriculture

    petroleum productsrefining

    electricity (200 TWh/y)

    jobs (10 million)

    crude oil

    petroleum products

    coal

    natural gas

    energy (500 PJ/y)

    construction

    services

    rental (actual + imputed)

    agriculture

    utilities

    investment

    goods

    economic volume flows at purchasers prices (100b[1990]/y)

    serviceindustry

    goods

    construction

    services

    extraction

    economic volume flows at basic prices (100b[1990]/y)

    Jobs, energy and economic volume fl ows

    The Sankey lines introduced earlier of jobs, energy and economic volume fl ows all relate to the same set of fi xed capital. Therefore they are combined here into one diagram. Products and jobs start as inputs on the left and progress via production at fi xed capital to fi nished forms on the right.

    For the three larger industries, inputs for production into their left-hand boxes are imports, energy and jobs, and into their right-hand boxes are their intermediate consumption of other industries products, which include raw materials.

    Introduced here are extensions of the Sankey lines at fi nal supply further to the right as lines of fi nal demand. One fi nal destination for products is by households. Their own purchase is called household consumption. Households also benefi t from NPISH (non-profi t institutions serving households) and government services, so these are also components of fi nal demand. Another destination for products is as exports, which are shown on the right crossing the system boundary of the economy.

    The remaining component of fi nal demand is investment, the only fl ow going back to the left. Fixed capital has to be maintained, replaced and increased. While referred to here as investment, its formal name is gross fi xed capital formation (GFCF). It consists of Sankey lines from manufacturing, construction and service industries that evolve into a single blue line, simply for clarity, before blue lines enter each of the fi xed capital boxes for the industries and dwellings.

    This Sankey diagram provides a high-level view of the signifi cant relationships from inputs through to fi nal demand with investment doubling back to fi xed capital. It is an integration of different fl ows involving a mixture of units which are fully detailed in the key.

  • 18

    IMPORTS EXPORTS

    tax

    intermediate consumption

    serviceindustry

    construction

    goods

    tax

    crudeoil

    crude oil(net)

    jobs

    other

    coal

    gas

    gas (net)

    coal (net)

    petroleum products (net)

    services

    goods

    agriculture

    NPISH

    household consumption

    investment

    goods

    services

    agriculture

    KEY

    UK trading border

    manu-facturing

    government

    distribution& retail

    construc-tion

    utilities

    other

    transport

    dwellings

    electricityfrom

    combustion

    nuclear &renewables

    services

    rental

    construc-tion

    manu-facturing

    finalsupply

    finaldemand

    G

    D

    P

    &

    i

    m

    p

    o

    r

    t

    stax

    other

    other

    inputs finished productsproducts

    extraction

    agriculture

    petroleum productsrefining

    electricity (200 TWh/y)

    jobs (10 million)

    crude oil

    petroleum products

    coal

    natural gas

    energy (500 PJ/y)

    construction

    services

    rental (actual + imputed)

    agriculture

    utilities

    investment

    goods

    economic volume flows at purchasers prices (100b[1990]/y)

    serviceindustry

    goods

    construction

    services

    extraction

    economic volume flows at basic prices (100b[1990]/y)

    Which industry is the largest employer?

    What proportion of total coal used in the country is imported?

    What is (crude) oil used for?

    Is the UK self-suffi cient in petroleum products?

    What is the ratio of goods manufactured to imports?

    Which is highest volume export out of agriculture, goods and services?

    Which industry requires the most infrastructure investment?

    What proportion of the fi nal supply of services is tax on products?

    If consumers (households) buy fewer goods, how is employment affected?

    Jobs, energy and economic volume fl ows

    19

  • Foresight + Research + Innovation 21

    Transport

    Transport is a key function within any economy. Major modes are illustrated opposite. For passenger transport they range from private cars through public transport by bus and rail to air. For freight they range from light vans through heavy goods vehicles and rail to marine.

    Some economic volume fl ows in the fi rst 7see Sankey diagram include transport services, such as distribution and vehicle leasing by the service industry. Transport equipment is also one of the types of the fi xed capital that make up industries. However the full role of transport in an economy is diffi cult to extract from economic volume fl ow data alone. Also private vehicles are not normally included in the measure of fi xed capital of an economy.

    Since transport is important, it is represented by its own 7see Sankey diagram on the following page. This takes a physical perspective. As with the earlier 7see Sankey diagram, the starting point is fi xed capital of transport equipment which converts energy into travel. While transport equipment is long-lived and expensive to create, it clearly differs from buildings, structures, plant and machinery introduced earlier in not being fi xed in position.

    Fixed capital of transport equipment converts energy into travel

  • 22

    petroleumproducts

    electricity

    vehicle-km/y

    FREIGHT

    PASSENGER

    passenger-km/y

    vehicle-km/y

    vehicle-km/y

    tonne-km/y

    passenger-km/y

    passenger-km/y

    tonne-km/y

    car & taxi

    bus & coach

    rail

    domesticair

    passenger-km/yinternationalair

    military air

    tonne-km/y

    internationalmarine

    domestic marine

    rail

    van (LGV)

    truck (HGV)

    KEY petroleumproducts (500 PJ/y)

    vehicle travel (50 G vehicle-km/y)

    electricity(200 TWh/y)

    passenger travel (50 G passenger-km/y)

    freight travel (50 G tonne-km/y)

    energy mobilitytransport

    Transport

    This 7see Sankey diagram maps the major transportation types that need fuel inputs (thus excluding walking and cycling). The Sankey diagram begins on the left with volume fl ows of energy use and can be thought of as progressing to the right via means of transportation to the delivery of mobility.

    The fuels shown here for the UK economy are mainly petroleum products with a little electricity. Their sources are shown earlier in the Sankey diagram of jobs, energy and economic volume fl ows. LPG (liquefi ed petroleum gas) and biofuels are too small in UK use to include here. Some economies also use CNG (compressed natural gas).

    The yellow boxes represent all the fi xed capital of vehicles. (There is no signifi cance to their dimensions.) They are grouped according to whether they serve passengers or freight.

    The formats for quantifying mobility (on the right side) are varied having been selected according to relevance and the availability of robust data. For travel by car & taxi, the annual motor test ensures an accurate record of total travel of the entire car fl eet. Thus the output mobility of this mode is vehicle-km/y. passenger-km/y is not used since actual occupancy data is more diffi cult to assess and is less reliable than purely vehicle travel.

    For freight carried on the roads, data of tonne-km/y is collected for trucks (heavy goods vehicles, HGV) but not for vans (light goods vehicles, LGV). Data for international marine freight specifi cally associated with the UK has not yet been sourced.

    other

    transportpetroleum productsrefining

    p. 16

    23

  • 24

    petroleumproducts

    electricity

    vehicle-km/y

    FREIGHT

    PASSENGER

    passenger-km/y

    vehicle-km/y

    vehicle-km/y

    tonne-km/y

    passenger-km/y

    passenger-km/y

    tonne-km/y

    car & taxi

    bus & coach

    rail

    domesticair

    passenger-km/yinternationalair

    military air

    tonne-km/y

    internationalmarine

    domestic marine

    rail

    van (LGV)

    truck (HGV)

    KEY petroleumproducts (500 PJ/y)

    vehicle travel (50 G vehicle-km/y)

    electricity(200 TWh/y)

    passenger travel (50 G passenger-km/y)

    freight travel (50 G tonne-km/y)

    energy mobilitytransport

    other

    transportpetroleum productsrefining

    p. 16

    Which form of transport uses electricity?

    Which form of transport is the largest user of petroleum products?

    For public transport on land, which type carries the most passenger-km?

    Between the two types of road freight vehicles, which covers the most vehicle-km?

    How is most freight carried?

    Transport

    25

  • Foresight + Research + Innovation 27

    Population and jobs

    This section covers the population of the economy and how its activities are categorised.

    In the diagrams earlier, the starting point is fi xed capital. Here the relevant fi xed capital is dwellings. Shown opposite are examples, from a detached and terraced houses to an apartment block.

    Dwellings are occupied by households which are defi ned as the consuming unit under the international System of National Accounts (SNA). Examples of households are shown opposite. According to the ONS (Offi ce for National Statistics) in the UK, a household is one person living alone or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room or sitting room or dining area. The number of households varies over time. For instance, it goes down when more young people tend to stay living in their parents home, and increases when more couples split up.

    The third quantity represented opposite (in the right column) is simply the whole population of a country. Population has features in common with fi xed capital: it is a comparatively fi xed resource and changes only slowly over time.

    Households are defi ned as the consuming unit

  • 28

    student

    under 16

    unemployed

    looking after family or home

    under 65 retired

    sick

    service industry

    construction

    men over 65women over 60

    economically inactive

    under 16

    manufacturing

    other industries

    populationlabour force

    (economically active) employed jobs

    householdsdwellings

    residence consuming unit population employment or status

    dwellingsdwellings

    household consumption

    householdconsumption

    serviceindustry

    manu-facturing

    construc-tion

    serviceindustryy

    manu-facturing

    construc-tion

    Population and jobs

    This 7see Sankey diagram relates dwellings on the left through population in the middle to jobs and other activities on the right. Excerpts of the fi rst Sankey diagram in this booklet, of jobs, energy and economic volume fl ows, show several points of linkage of quantities between the two diagrams. In contrast to the other three Sankey diagrams in this booklet, all the quantities here are stocks or status measures; none are fl ows with a direction or have per-year types of units.

    If starting at population in the Sankey diagram, progressing to the right fi rst meets division by age. The next division is by whether economically active or not for the labour force. There is then a change of unit from employment in light green for labour force (economically active), as sourced from household survey data, to jobs in dark green, as reported by industries, the employers. The industry groupings at the top right correspond to those in the fi rst Sankey diagram.

    Progressing from population to the left, population can be grouped into households. This applies to household consumption on the far right of the fi rst Sankey diagram.

    Households reside in dwellings, which are the fi xed capital at the bottom of the fi rst Sankey diagram. Dwellings consume fuel and require investment for improvements as well as to increase in number. Rental paid by households for accommodation is one component of GDP. Note that this rental component is the sum of actual payments made together with imputed rental. The imputed part corresponds to the rental value of all owner-occupier dwellings (what they would have paid if they werent owners). This enables comparison of GDP between countries, independent of the proportion of owner-occupiers.

    The rural proportion is included in some parts of the diagram because rural areas in the UK are sometimes disadvantaged for affordable housing, access to services and economic opportunities.

    p. 16

    p. 17

    p. 17

    KEY (10 million) employment jobsdwellingsrural

    urban

    rural

    urbanhouseholds

    rural

    urbanpopulation

    29

  • 30

    student

    under 16

    unemployed

    looking after family or home

    under 65 retired

    sick

    service industry

    construction

    men over 65women over 60

    economically inactive

    under 16

    manufacturing

    other industries

    populationlabour force

    (economically active) employed jobs

    householdsdwellings

    residence consuming unit population employment or status

    dwellingsdwellings

    household consumption

    householdconsumption

    serviceindustry

    manu-facturing

    construc-tion

    serviceindustryy

    manu-facturing

    construc-tion

    p. 16

    p. 17

    p. 17

    KEY (10 million) employment jobsdwellingsrural

    urban

    rural

    urbanhouseholds

    rural

    urbanpopulation

    Why are there more jobs than employed?

    Why is the number of dwellings greater than households?

    What is the average household size?

    Which is the largest activity/group of the population?

    Which is the larger comparing children under 16 to older people of men over 65, women over 60?

    Which category would housewives come under?

    How do the numbers of unemployed and economically inactive compare in size?

    Population and jobs

    31

  • Foresight + Research + Innovation 3332

    Balance of payments

    This section on balance of payments is about money, which is an important distinction from volume measures introduced earlier.

    Economic volume fl ows feature in the fi rst 7see Sankey diagram in this booklet. Volume fl ows are infl ation-corrected spending on goods, services and other outputs. Just as energy units are a good metric for energy fl ows, volume metrics are a good proxy measure for the amount of these products (goods, services, etc.) as they progress through all the stages of production.

    In contrast to volume measures, the balance of payments concerns all transactions at the system boundary. Examples of trade are shown opposite. Each trade has an arrow to the right of volume movement, the stuff itself. Its monetary transaction is to the left. Though they are numerically equal in size for economic volume fl ows, they are different ways of viewing the trading process. This is made clear in the case of energy where the arrow to the right could be in energy units.

    Balance of payments can be considered as being about ownership. While the trade part of balance of payments covers all goods and services which move, what is owned in non-trade doesnt move. The examples opposite at the top are ownership of equities (shares). At top right, a business within the economy has a foreign buyer (a nonresident) so funds fl ow into the country while the fi xed capital (the physical assets) of the business does not move. In later years, funds fl ow out as dividends to the foreign owner. At top left, funds leave the economy to buy shares in a company abroad.

    Non-trade ownership also covers borrowing and debt.

    Balance of payments concerns all transactions at the system boundary

    UK-owned shares in a foreign company

    (UK assets)

    coal imports

    KEY goodscoal

    services

    new vehicles for export

    foreign tourists in the UKcall centre abroad

    foreign-owned shares in a UK-located company (UK liabilities)

    funds leaving country

    funds received by country

    border of country

    border of domestic ownership

  • 34

    servicesservicese

    KEY (100b[1990]/y) payable receivable

    imports

    non-trade transactions

    trade transactions exports

    Balance of payments

    This Sankey diagram shows the monetary fl ows of all transactions that make up the balance of payments (BoP).

    Compared to the fi rst 7see Sankey diagram of jobs, energy and economic volume fl ows, both diagrams have the same outer rectangle, corresponding to the countrys geographical border. The monetary fl ows here go in the opposite direction to the volume fl ows (of energy, goods and services) in the fi rst diagram: import volumes entering from the left in the fi rst diagram have corresponding expenditure, here all in red, which exit to the left; export volumes leaving on the right in the fi rst diagram have corresponding income, here all in green, which enter from the right.

    All non-trade transactions are along the top. The yellow and grey boxes for equities represent those items of fi xed capital relevant to the BoP, with white boxes for debt securities (mostly bonds). The focus here is on the location and ownership of these assets. foreign owned means the assets are physically located in the UK but the dashed line around them designates ownership by nonresidents; monetary transactions in red crossing the dashed lines leave the economy. The boxes foreign located mean the assets are abroad but under home ownership (the UK in this example); monetary transactions in red crossing the solid line to reach them also leave the economy. Transactions at the bottom of these boxes correspond to their purchase or sale (change of liability), while transactions on their sides are income (dividends or interest) to their owners.

    other investments (net) from the BoP fi nancial account are mainly intra-bank transactions across national borders. reserve assets (net) vary between inward and outward from year to year.

    The remaining components of non-trade transactions are one way. They include foreign aid and remittances by foreign workers back to their own countries.

    capital account (net)

    transfers(net)

    services

    NON-TRADE TRANSACTIONS

    crude oil (net)

    agriculture& goods

    IMPORTS EXPORTSlocated within UK

    b

    a

    l

    a

    n

    c

    e

    o

    f

    p

    a

    y

    m

    e

    n

    t

    s

    services

    agriculture& goods

    foreign owned

    UKliabilities

    foreign located UK owned

    assets

    other investments(net)

    reserve assets (net)

    incomepayable

    incomepayable debt

    securities

    inwardlending

    inwardinvestment

    lendingabroad

    investmentabroad

    foreign locateddebt

    securities

    income receivable

    income receivable

    gas (net)

    petroleumproducts (net)

    coal (net)

    payable receivabletrade transactions

    services

    goods

    agriculture

    services

    services

    goods

    agriculture

    p. 16p. 17

    35

  • 36

    servicesservicese

    KEY (100b[1990]/y) payable receivable

    imports

    non-trade transactions

    trade transactions exports

    capital account (net)

    transfers(net)

    services

    NON-TRADE TRANSACTIONS

    crude oil (net)

    agriculture& goods

    IMPORTS EXPORTSlocated within UK

    b

    a

    l

    a

    n

    c

    e

    o

    f

    p

    a

    y

    m

    e

    n

    t

    s

    services

    agriculture& goods

    foreign owned

    UKliabilities

    foreign located UK owned

    assets

    other investments(net)

    reserve assets (net)

    incomepayable

    incomepayable debt

    securities

    inwardlending

    inwardinvestment

    lendingabroad

    investmentabroad

    foreign locateddebt

    securities

    income receivable

    income receivable

    gas (net)

    petroleumproducts (net)

    coal (net)

    payable receivabletrade transactions

    services

    goods

    agriculture

    services

    services

    goods

    agriculture

    p. 16p. 17

    What are the three largest receivable transactions (incoming funds) for the economy?

    What are the three largest payable transactions (outgoing funds) for the economy?

    Ignoring all the non-trade transactions, is the balance of trade positive (more in credit) or negative?

    How does the total trade in energy (in monetary terms) compare to the overall balance of payments?

    The UK earns from assets abroad while income from domestic assets in foreign ownership must be paid to their nonresident owners. Which income stream is larger?

    For lending (debt securities), has the net amount lent to foreigners (nonresidents) and the net amount borrowed from foreigners gone up or down over the year 2011?

    Can you suggest why the UK might both lend to and borrow from foreigners?

    Balance of payments

    37

  • Foresight + Research + Innovation 3938

    intermediate

    serviceindustry

    UK trading

    manu-facturing

    dist

    construc-tion

    utilities

    transport(assets

    includedwithin

    industries)

    extraction

    agriculture

    intermeddiaa

    serviceindustry

    manu-facturing

    construc-tion

    utilities

    extraction

    agriculture

    economically inactive

    labour force(economically active) em

    economically inactive

    labour force(economically active)

    vehicle-km/y

    PASSENGER

    passenger-km/y

    car & taxi

    bus & coach

    vehicle-km/y

    PASSENGER

    paspassensengerger-km-km//y

    car & taxi

    bus & coa hch

    construction

    goods

    services

    rental

    finalsupply

    finaldemand

    G

    D

    P

    &

    i

    m

    p

    o

    r

    t

    s

    t ticonstructionconstruction

    goods

    services

    rental

    finalsupply

    finaldemandd

    G

    D

    P

    &

    i

    m

    p

    o

    r

    t

    s

    b

    a

    l

    a

    n

    c

    e

    o

    f

    p

    a

    y

    m

    e

    n

    t

    s

    b

    a

    l

    a

    n

    c

    e

    o

    f

    p

    a

    y

    m

    e

    n

    t

    s

    tax

    intermediate consumption

    investment

    utilities

    (assetsincluded

    withinindustries)

    taxtaxtaxtaxxtaxtax

    intermediate consumption

    investment

    utilities

    (assetsincluded

    withinindustries)

    Insights

    There are many benefi ts to using the Sankey format for country-wide data. Widths of lines show what is important. Lines linking boxes enable dependencies to be traced back upstream to inputs. System richness is emphasised by the array of colours representing different entities.

    Extracts from the set of 7see Sankey diagrams introduced in this booklet are shown opposite.

    Investment is the part of fi nal demand essential for maintenance and growth of all fi xed capital.

    GDP appears in two forms: output and expenditure.

    Energy is represented in two ways. As a small economic volume fl ow it is production from the extraction and utilities industries. The other way is in actual energy units.

    Transport appears in two ways, as for energy. Part of transport is included in economic volume fl ows of the fi rst 7see Sankey. The other way is a more physical perspective focusing on its fi xed capital of transport equipment which converts energy inputs into the output product of mobility.

    Jobs are inputs for each industrys production, alongside energy and other inputs.

    A key aspect for population is the way it divides between economically active and inactive parts. The defi nition of unemployed is only those of the economically active who dont have jobs.

    Balance of payments is about monetary fl ows themselves, and is required to balance.

    GDP appears in two forms: output and expenditure

    p. 17

    p. 23

    p. 28

    p. 17

    p. 16

    p. 34

  • Have You Wondered What GDP Means?40 Foresight + Research + Innovation 41

    The purpose of the 7see framework isnt just to produce Sankey diagrams of one year. A 7see model has data from 1990 to the present that calibrate time-varying relationships between the built environment (fi xed capital) and all the fl ows. Using a Systems Dynamic approach, a 7see model can be run forward to, say, 2030 to generate a business-as-usual base-case scenario.

    A 7see model enables the testing of alternative investment options, such as for a low-carbon development strategy. These future scenarios are physically and economically feasible because the 7see method is fi rmly grounded in physical constraints of energy thermodynamics and material fl ows for infrastructure. Since any model can only be as good as the data put into it, a 7see model has complete data integrity and audit trails to all its data sources.

    Insights into GDP: GDP should be unpicked into its principal

    component fl ows (goods, construction, services and rental).

    The component fl ows are not substitutable in the short term, but need time and investment to substitute over the longer term.

    The drive for growth in developed economies can be interpreted as maintaining employment given an ongoing trend of fewer jobs needed per unit of output.

    The coverage of economic aspects within 7see is fi rmly grounded in the international System of National Accounts 2008. Combining this rigorous coverage with jobs, energy and travel means that the 7see approach provides a lingua franca across government departments and their policy overlaps. It also aids international comparisons.

    The 7see framework provides a foundation for discussion of sustainability. The triple bottom line measures of fi nancial, social and environmental performance translate into the economy, jobs and carbon emissions, as covered by the Sankey diagrams in this booklet.

    The 7see framework provides a fi rm foundation for discussion of sustainability

  • Have You Wondered What GDP Means?42 Foresight + Research + Innovation 43

    Follow-up resources: 20-minute TEDx talk by Simon Roberts describing how the 7see project started:

    bit.ly/TEDxNWS-SimonRoberts 3-minute animations exploring the Sankey map of jobs, energy and economic volume

    fl ows with sub-titles in English, vimeo.com/66060261, or in Chinese, vimeo.com/68367291

    Technical paper on characterizing an economy by its socio-economic and energyactivities: research.insead.edu/2013/07/RobertsAxonForanGoddardWarr.html

    In addition to the UK 7see model shown here, work is in progress on models for the economies of Australia, Bangladesh, Colombia and the Republic of China (Taiwan).

    For more information and answers to the questions, please contact: simon.roberts@arup.com

    Acknowledgements

    This booklet is based on an academic research paper written in collaboration with Colin Axon (Brunel University), Barney Foran (Charles Sturt University), Nigel Goddard (University of Edinburgh) and Benjamin Warr (INSEAD Social Innovation Center). Feedback for this booklet was gratefully received from Eike Sindlinger, Felicity Davies, James Thonger, Jennifer Greitschus, Kim West, Mark Pearsall, Martin Shouler, Ricky Tsui and Tooraj Arvajeh.

    Sources of data: ONS (UK Offi ce for National Statistics), DECC (UK Government Department for Energy and Climate Change) and DFT (UK Government Department for Transport).

    Also available

    This publication is also available in electronic format.ISBN 978-0-9929501-0-1www.arup.com/gdp

    Further information Photo creditsKey to license defi nitions: CC0: Public Domain (creativecommons.org/about/cc0) CC-BY: Creative Commons - Attribution (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/) CC-BY-ND: Creative Commons Attribution No Derivatives (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/) CC-BY-SA 2.0: Creative Commons - Attribution - Share Alike Generic

    (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/) CC-BY-SA 3.0: Creative Commons - Attribution - Share Alike Unported

    (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/)

    The references below indicate:Page number: subject (image link) by creator (creators link) license

    6: aerial shot - Webb Aviation (www.webbaviation.co.uk) 9: market - (www.fl ickr.com/photos/fairerdingo/1775342236/) by raider of gin (www.fl ickr. com/photos/fairerdingo/) CC-BY10: power station - (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nuclear.power.plant.Dukovany.jpg) by Petr Adamek (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Petr.adamek ) CC0 10: factory - (www.fl ickr.com/photos/widnr/6549889343/in/photostream/) by Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (www.fl i ckr.com/photos/widnr/) CC-BY-ND10: crane - (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tower_ crane.jpg) by Nebrot (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Nebrot) CC-BY-SA 3.010: hospital - Daniel Imade20: traffic - (www.geograph.org.uk/photo/1441129) by Lynda Poulter (www.geograph.org.uk/profi le/12912) CC-BY-SA 2.020: van - (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_van_man#mediaviewer/File:Mercedes_sprinter_2_v_sst. jpg) by Sven Storbeck (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:SSt) CC-BY-SA 3.020: bus - (www.fl ickr.com/photos/brianac37/7489993072/) by brianac37 (www.fl ickr. com/photos/brianac37/) CC-BY20: truck - (www.flickr.com/photos/sludgeulper/3298931141/) by Sludge G (www.flickr. com/photos/sludgeulper/) CC-BY-SA 2.020: train - (www.flickr.com/photos/15462727@N07/2226814310/) by Ingy The Wingy (www.flickr.com/people/ingythewingy/) CC-BY-SA 2.020: rail freight - (www.flickr.com/photos/duncharris/4033673305/) by Duncan Harris (www. flickr.com/photos/duncharris/ ) CC-BY-SA 2.020: terminal - Nic Lehoux20: cargo ship - (www.flickr.com/photos/40322276@ N04/5369581593) by NOAAs National Ocean Service (www.flickr.com/people/usoceangov/) CC-BY-SA 2.0 26: detached house - (www.geograph.org.uk/

    photo/2752455) by David Wright (www.geograph.org. uk/profi le/1782) CC-BY-SA 2.026: elderly couple - (www.fl ickr.com/photos/joshuarothhaas/1971145369) by Joshua Rothhaas (www.flickr.com/photos/joshuarothhaas/) CC-BY 26: crowd - (blog.ideascale.com/2013/03/19/learn-from-ideascale-engagement-behaviors-to-cultivate/613445810_95f712caa1_o/) by ideascale, CC-BY-ND26: terraced house - (www.flickr.com/photos/beglen/151374385/) by David, Bergin, Emmett and Elliott (www.flickr.com/photos/beglen/) CC-BY26: single man - photographer Elisa Magnini Arup 26: fl ats - Stewart Bale Ltd.26: family - (www.fl ickr.com/photos/fdevillamil/5674635631) by Frdric de Villamil (www. flickr.com/photos/fdevillamil/) CC-BY-SA 2.032: chinese investment - photographer Elisa Magnini Arup 32: Scottish Power - photographer Elisa Magnini Arup 32: coal ship - (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Loading_a_freighter_with_coal_at_one_of_the_ three_coal_docks_owned_by_the_Pennsylvania_ Railroad1a34819v.jpg) by Jack Delano (en.wikipedia. org/wiki/Jack_Delano) CC032: car export - (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Car_carrier_Cepheus_Leader.jpg) by Tvabutzku1234 (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Tvabutzku1234) CC0 32: call centre - (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:An_ Indian_call_center.jpg) by Sonamsaxena (en.wikipedia. org/wiki/User:Sonamsaxena) CC032: tickets - photographer Elisa Magnini Arup41: manufacturing - (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geely#mediaviewer/File:Geely_assembly_line_in_ Beilun,_Ningbo.jpg) by Siyuwj (commons.wikimedia. org/wiki/User:Siyuwj) CC-BY-SA 3.041: construction site - photographer Mike Cribb Arup 41: offi ce - (www.fl ickr.com/photos/philliecasablanca/3344142642) by Phil Whitehouse (www.fl ickr.com/photos/philliecasablanca/) CC-BY

  • Have You Wondered What GDP Means?44

    13 Fitzroy StreetLondon W1T 4BQarup.com driversofchange.com

    The measure GDP (gross domestic product) receives a mixed press. Politicians, the business community and economic commentators hang on each quarterly release. With emotive descriptors, all yearn to get out of a depression and into growth. Contrast this with GDPs critics who vilify its focus only on monetarised transactions, saying it ignores unpaid work, activities in the home and natures contributions. Worse still, an increase in GDP extracts more of the earths generous bounty and pollution clean-up counts as production.

    This booklet takes neither position but simply sets out to explain what GDP means. Behind the single metric is a fi rmly established methodology of data collection. Whether you are interested in economics or not, the defi nitions in this methodology provide a useful language to access a rich data resource and discuss its implications. This booklet complements the GDP components with energy, jobs, travel and balance of payments.

    Have You Wondered What GDP Means? is a door to understanding data so they can be used the right way, appreciating both their qualities and limitations. It is only from such a position that we can progress with the big questions, such as cutting carbon dioxide emissions while maintaining economic viability.

    9 780956 212184

    ISBN 978-0-9562121-8-4

    IntroductionJobs, energy and economic volume flowsTransportPopulation and jobsBalance of paymentsInsightsFurther information