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AROUND THE
WORLD IN 80
MINUTES
A new world order
– implications for bond investors
BNY Mellon Asset Management
For professional advisers only
For illustrative purposes only
Ret
urn
s
Time
2000s– ? trend
Ret
urn
s
Time
1980–2000s trend
… a more volatile world
The ‘great moderation’ is over …
2Your starting point is all important…A perspective on investment returns
Investment solutions in a lower return/volatile world• Active, flexible approaches• Emphasis on income• Strategies that protect capital and aim for asymmetry of return• ‘Return based’ objectives
Then and now… it’s a different world
¹ September 2011. ² Calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the US in calculating the national accounts³ Used 10 years of earnings to remove the effect of the economic cycle from the PE calculationSource: Census, Bloomberg, Datastream, Newton
United States 1982 2011¹Fed funds rate 12% 0.25%10-year bond yield 14% 2%Monetary base $149 billion $2.6 trillionBudget deficit as % of GDP -2.2% -10.1%Household debt to GDP ratio 47.1% 88.3%Inflation rate, % yoy 8.9% 3.8%Savings rate 11.9% 4.5%Unemployment rate 8.5% 9.1%Profit margins (national accounts)² 9.6% 17.5%S&P 500 P/E ratio (1 year trailing) 8.0x 14.0xS&P 500 cycle adjusted PE³ 7.8x 20.3xS&P 500 dividend yield 5.7% 2.3%Demographics – average age of babyboomer Median age is 27 Median age is 56
3Your starting point is all important…A perspective on investment returns (cont’d)
The US financial position: Or put it another way…let’s pretend it’s a household budget:
Source: Newton, October 2011
($)
US tax revenue 2,170,000,000,000
Federal budget spending
3,820,000,000,000
New debt 1,650,000,000,000
National debt 14,271,000,000,000
Recent budget cuts 38,500,000,000
($)
Annual family income 21,700
Annual outgoings 38,200
New credit card debt 16,500
Outstanding balance on credit card
142,710
Budget cuts 385
4A perspective on investment returns
Peak debt year
Peak debt in USD bn
Peak debt proportion of domestic GDP
Peak debt proportionof global GDP
A perspective on investment returns
* Precrisis debt peak except for Eurozone figures, which are as at February 2011Note: Bubbles are not to scale and for illustrative purposes only
** GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, and is the monetary value of goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period. It is usually calculated on an annual basis and gives an indication of a country’s economic health and standard of living. Source: IMF, Bloomberg
S. Korea/Thailand
1997
1,836
248%
6.1%
Russia
1997
347
86%
1.2%
Greece
1982
40
80%
0.4%
Argentina
2002
489
181%
1.5%
Eurozone*
2011
36,157
297%
57.4%
Theme(s)
Less debt
More ‘balanced’ economic variables
Higher energy costs
More older people
Unprecedented connectedness
Five important transitions to a world with:
6Global thematic framework
Key economic factors: Debt, growth, competitiveness
Primary trend: Extended period of deleverage
Secondary trend Loose Monetary Policy, State intervention
Major fault lines: Eurozone economic collapse
US growth and budget arithmetic
China growth uncertainty
Diverse outcomes: Printing of Money, Rate Cutting and Default
Market distortions remain
7The post-bubble landscape
*Source: JPMorgan Global Bond, as at 31 Dec 2011
AAA CLUB % %REST OF THE WORLD
UK 6.74 BrazilAustralia 0.95 ChinaCanada 1.82 Czech RepublicGermany 5.96 IndonesiaSweden 0.41 MalaysiaDenmark 0.57 16.45 Mexico New ZealandMONEY PRINTERS NorwayUSA 33.70 PolandJapan 32.42 66.12 South Africa South KoreaCREDIT RISK SingaporeFrance 6.09 SwitzerlandHolland 1.63 Belgium 1.63 Italy 5.36 Spain 2.71 17.42 100.00
Index* weightings
8
Managing money against a bond indexis fraught with danger
9
Govt debt held abroad as % GDP vs. 5yr CDS spreads
Source: Datastream as of 31 October 2011
As economic growth slips the reliance on foreign support becomes more important.
Government debt held abroad
10Wage growth and the problem with Europe
Source: Bloomberg, OECD January 2012 Source: Bloomberg, OECD January 2012
11
Source: Newton, February 2012Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time without notice, are for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment recommendations.
• Emphasis on traditional fixed income asset classes
• A return seeking core with particular security characteristics
• Risk offsetting positions for dampened volatility and downside protection
Global Dynamic Bond strategyConceptual representation
12
Source: Newton, Merrill Lynch Indices Hedged into Sterling, 31 December 2011Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
2011EM6.80
Govt6.32
IG5.14
HY2.92
2010 HY
14.87EM
12.04IG
7.46Govt3.89
2009HY
59.71EM
27.51IG
16.09Govt1.18
2008Govt11.66
IG -3.38
EM -10.23
HY-27.01
2007Govt6.38
EM5.89
IG3.76
HY2.53
2006HY
10.22EM9.68
IG3.32
Govt2.82
2005EM
13.73Govt6.50
IG5.20
HY4.91
2004EM
15.07HY
14.69IG
8.66Govt8.02
2003HY
30.57EM
29.01IG
8.73Govt4.39
2002EM
15.18Govt10.73
IG10.72
HY1.61
2001IG
9.95Govt7.31
HY4.76
EM1.52
2000EM
13.19Govt10.22
IG8.49
HY-6.15
1999EM
21.65HY
3.06IG
1.74Govt1.33
1998Govt13.03
IG10.75
HY5.01
EM-12.83
EM Emerging-market govt bonds Govt Govt bonds IG Investment-grade corporate bonds HY High-yield corporate bonds
The fixed income asset classes rankings change depending on the economic cycle
*The higher the target return the greater the potential for the returns to be significantly higher or lower than expected***Based on long term volatility statistics
Risk control (portfolio guidelines)
Risk monitoring
Newton Global
Dynamic Bond
Fund
Risk parametersTarget volatility 6% – 8%**
Portfolio diversification Max 5% in any corporate issuer at purchase
Portfolio concentration Max 50% in any sector.
Quantitative risk assessmentHow much risk? – (bond weights, correlation, volatility)
What kind of risk? – (currency, credit, interest rate)
Is risk consistent? – (strategic views, economic cycle)
The performance aim of theFund is to deliver cash (1 month GBP Libor) + 2% p.a. over 3 to 5 years before fees are deducted. There is no guarantee that this return will be achieved or that your capital will be maintained.
13
Global Dynamic Bond Fund
Source: Newton, 29 February 2012Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time without notice, are for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment recommendations.
EM Sovereign 19.61 %
Government Bonds 23.95%High Yield 19.58%
Investment Grade 32.00 %
14Newton Global Dynamic Bond Fund Positioning as at 29 February 2012
15Newton Global Dynamic Bond Fund performance versus IMA Sectors
Source: Lipper as at 14 Feb 2012. Please note that sector returns are likely to vary, depending on the timing of data extraction from Lipper Fund performance calculated as total return including income net of UK tax, net annual charges, no initial charge, in GBP. The impact of the initial charge, which may be up to 4%, can be material on the performance of your investment. Performance figures including the initial charge are available upon request. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The performance aim of the Fund is to deliver cash (1 month GBP LIBOR) + 2% p.a. over 3 to 5 years before fees are deducted. There is no guarantee that this return will be achieved or that capital will be maintained.
A higher yielding addition to global government bonds
• Government bond yields at new lows
• Investors looking to work their bonds harder – looking to invest in a wider bond universe
• Defaults on a declining path. Corporate credit still attractive.
• Plenty of individual credit stories – they don’t all move together
• Emerging market debt a serious alternative – credit story improving
• Government bond yields at new lows
• Investors looking to work their bonds harder – looking to invest in a wider bond universe
• Defaults on a declining path. Corporate credit still attractive.
• Plenty of individual credit stories – they don’t all move together
• Emerging market debt a serious alternative – credit story improving
• NEWTON GLOBAL DYNAMIC BOND FUND invests wherever there are fixed income opportunities
• Investing in a diversified universe of generally high yielding securities:
– Government bonds
– Emerging market sovereigns
– Corporates – high yield and investment grade
• Currency overlay
• Derivatives – principally to manage duration
• NEWTON GLOBAL DYNAMIC BOND FUND invests wherever there are fixed income opportunities
• Investing in a diversified universe of generally high yielding securities:
– Government bonds
– Emerging market sovereigns
– Corporates – high yield and investment grade
• Currency overlay
• Derivatives – principally to manage duration
The present The future
Going forward a dynamic fixed income asset allocation is
required
16Why Newton Global Dynamic Bond Fund?
17Important information
This is a financial promotion and is not intended as investment advice. The information provided within is for use by professional clients and should not be relied upon by retail clients.
All information relating to Newton Investment Management Limited (Newton) and Newton Global Dynamic Bond Fund has been prepared by Newton for presentation by BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited (BNYMAMI). Any views and opinions contained in this document are those of Newton at the time of going to print and are not intended to be construed as investment advice. BNYMAMI and its affiliates are not responsible for any subsequent investment advice given based on the information supplied.
This document may not be used for the purpose of an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction or in any circumstances in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorised.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise due to stock market and currency movements. When you sell your investment you may get back less than you originally invested.
The Prospectus and/or Simplified Prospectus should be read before an investment is made. This document can be obtained from www.bnymellonam.co.uk or by calling 0500 66 00 00. To help us continually improve our service and in the interest of security, we may monitor and/or record your telephone calls with us.
Portfolio holdings are subject to change at any time without notice, are for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment recommendations.
Tax treatment will depend on the individual circumstances of clients and may be subject to change in the future.
Newton Investment Management Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Newton Investment Management Limited, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 1371973
Newton Global Dynamic Bond Fund (NGDBF) is a sub-fund of BNY Mellon Investment Funds, an investment company with variable capital (ICVC) incorporated in England and Wales under registered number IC27 and authorised by the Financial Services Authority. BNY Mellon Fund Managers Limited (BNY MFM) is the Authorised Corporate Director. BNY Mellon Fund Managers Limited, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 1998251. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. The investment adviser of the Newton sub-funds is Newton Investment Management Limited.
ICVC investments should not be regarded as short-term and should normally be held for at least five years.
There is no guarantee that either the target or positive returns will be achieved and no form of capital protection will apply. The higher the target return the greater the potential for the returns
to be significantly higher or lower than expected.Changes in the rates of exchange may affect the value of investments. The Fund can invest in overseas securities which may also generate profits overseas and pay dividends in foreign currencies, which means the fund is exposed to changes in currency rates. The Fund may invest in emerging markets. It should be noted that these markets have additional risks associated with local custody and registration practices that may be less developed than more mature markets. The Fund takes its charges from the capital of the fund. Investors should be aware that there is potential for future capital erosion if insufficient capital growth is achieved by the Fund to cover the charges. Capital erosion may result in the amount of income that can be drawn declining over time. The Fund may hold sub-investment grade bonds that typically have a low credit rating and carry a high degree of default risk, which can affect the capital value of your investment. The Fund may hold fixed interest securities, which are particularly affected by trends in interest rates and inflation. This may affect the capital value of your investment. The Fund may invest in illiquid securities, which means that there is a possibility that they cannot be readily converted into cash when required. The value of these securities is subject to greater fluctuation if they are not regularly traded. The Fund may use derivatives for efficient portfolio management (EPM) purposes. EPM restricts the use of derivatives for the reduction of risk, the reduction of cost and the generation of additional capital or income with no or an acceptable low level of risk. EPM transactions must be economically appropriate and the exposure fully covered. In addition to EPM, the Fund uses derivatives in pursuit of its investment objectives. All of these factors may affect the performance of the Fund.
This document is issued in the UK by BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited. BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London EC4V 4LA. Registered in England No. 1118580. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited, BNY MFM and Newton and any other BNY Mellon entity mentioned are all ultimately owned by The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. BNY MFM and Newton are members of the IMA.
CP8112-15-03-2012(3m)