Around the World In

30 MinutesOctober 2011

Beech Island South Carolina

Industrial Pipes

U.S. Economy: Employment

16-19

20-24

25-54

55+

65+

Illegal Aliens Apprehended

Real Estate Dip?

Mortgage Originations by Investors

Refinancing Hard To Do

Buy Back Bad Loans

Higher Fees

Second Mortgages

Housing: What to Do?

Refi 22.5 mil Houses

Leftover TARP

Bank Equity Ownership

Fiscal Drag from Federal, State, Local Gov’ts

Small Businesses

Loans

Training

Gov’t Regulation

Let’s Twist

Operation Twist?

Short-term Stimulus

Medium-term: Spending Cuts

Corporate Taxes

12.5/25/35

Loopholes

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2009 2010 2011 2012

U.S. Economic Growth: Lost Decade? (% Change Year over Year)

Forecast

Zero

Double Dip?

External

Save the Euro?

Unit Labor Costs

Breakup Euro?

What Are Businesses to

Do?

IGER.csuci.edu

Why IGER?

Bridge to Pacific Rim

Export

Asia: Where Action Is

Asia’s Contribution to Global GDP Growth

Investments in Asia

Asia Place to

Produce

Invest

Sell

Asia

Not Just Cheap Goods

Computational Photography

Video

China

Who’s Bigger? China or Japan

U.S. Treasury Securities

8% of all

25% of foreign owned

China

Big Consumer

China’s Love Affair with Cars

Buy a Car and Buy a Flat

House Prices for Asian Cities

Gov’t Policies

Purchase Restrictions

Property Taxes

Higher Interest Rates

China Outlook ?

ST: RE Bubble

MT: Healthy Growth

Santa Barbara County

Data Source: Labor Market Information Division, State of California and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Aug-05

Dec-05

Apr-06

Aug-06

Dec-06

Apr-07

Aug-07

Dec-07

Apr-08

Aug-08

Dec-08

Apr-09

Aug-09

Dec-09

Apr-10

Aug-10

Dec-10

Apr-11

Aug-11

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Seasonally AdjustedUnemployment Rate

Santa Barbara County United States CA

% U

nem

ploy

ed

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Santa Barbara CountyNet Migration

Num

ber o

f Net

Mig

rant

s

Source: CA Department of Finance

Data Source: Labor Market Information Division, State of California and California Economic Forecast

Farm

Professional & Business Services

Education and Healthcare

Leisure and Hospitality

State and Local Government

-2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500

Santa Barbara CountyChange in Employment (2009-2010)

Aug-05

Dec-05

Apr-06

Aug-06

Dec-06

Apr-07

Aug-07

Dec-07

Apr-08

Aug-08

Dec-08

Apr-09

Aug-09

Dec-09

Apr-10

Aug-10

Dec-10

Apr-11

Aug-11

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

Sales of Existing Single Family Homes

Santa Barbara County CA

Year

-to-

Year

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Data Source: California Association of Realtors

Data Source: California Association of Realtors

Aug-05

Dec-05

Apr-06

Aug-06

Dec-06

Apr-07

Aug-07

Dec-07

Apr-08

Aug-08

Dec-08

Apr-09

Aug-09

Dec-09

Apr-10

Aug-10

Dec-10

Apr-11

Aug-11

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSeasonally Adjusted

Santa Barbara County CA

Aug 2005

Dec 2005

Apr 2006

Aug 2006

Dec 2006

Apr 2007

Aug 2007

Dec 2007

Apr 2008

Aug 2008

Dec 2008

Apr 2009

Aug 2009

Dec 2009

Apr 2010

Aug 2010

Dec 2010

Apr 2011

Aug 2011

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

Santa Barbara CountyForeclosures

Santa Barbara Metro California

Perc

ent o

f Sin

gle

Fam

ily H

omes

Source: Zillow.com

Source: Radius Commercial Real Estate and California Economic Forecast

%

Source: Radius Commercial Real Estate and California Economic Forecast

Wise, Strong, Rich

DrSohn.com

(not Dr.Sohn.com)