ARIES- Pathways, August 26-27, Atlanta, GA Page 1 L. Waganer Consultant for The Boeing Company ARIES-Pathways Project Meeting 26-27 August 2009 Georgia

Page 1 ARIES- Pathways, August 26-27, Atlanta, GA

L. WaganerConsultant for The Boeing Company

ARIES-Pathways Project Meeting 26-27 August 2009

Georgia Technology, Atlanta, GA

Cost Model Update and Comparison


Cost Model Background Dr. Farrokh Najmabadi requested that I research the ARIES cost

databases and costing algorithms to update the databases and cost models to upgrade the systems code capabilities and clearly document the ARIES cost database.

Over the past two years, I have been researching, modeling, and documenting the fusion cost model and the related costing algorithms. I have also restructured the cost work breakdown structure to better match other similar power plant cost structures.

I have made about seven cost model update presentations to the ARIES team meetings.

I have constructed an Excel spreadsheet model (ESC) that compares the new algorithm results with the published ARIES-AT cost data. I have also documented the research and recommended changes for the ARIES cost model.


•The fusion power plant cost databases and reports for fusion conceptual designs back to 1980. These were researched to make sure the new model is reasonably consistent with prior cost estimates.

•Analyzing using common cost basis requires normalizing the cost estimates using the Gross Domestic Product Price Deflators for each year (new update July 30, 2009)

•LSA factors were applied for some accounts and some studies

•Not all dependant parameters were provided or documented

•Quite a few calculational and reporting errors were found

•Lots of cost accounts were never accurately described or reported

Cost Model Basis and Structure


I Have Been Working with these Cost Account ManagersNo. Account CAM20 Land and Land Rights Waganer21 Structures and Site Facilities Waganer22 Power Core Plant Equipment 22.01 Fusion Energy Capture and Conversion 22.01.01 First Wall and Blanket Malang 22.01.02 Second Blanket Malang 22.01.03 Divertor Assenbly Raffray 22.01.04 High Temperature Shielding El-Guebaly 22.01.05 Low Temperature Shielding El-Guebaly 22.01.06 Penetration Shielding El-Guebaly 22.02 Plasma Confinement 22.02.01 Toroidal Field Coils (TBD) 22.02.02 Poloidal Field Coils (TBD) 22.02.03 Feedback Coils Kessel 22.03 Plasma Formation and Sustainment [Mau] 22.04 Vacuum, Plasma Core (equipment) Najmabadi 22.05 Primary Structure and Support Wang 22.06 Power Supplies, Switching and Energy Storage Cadwallader 22.07 Main Heat Transfer and Transport Raffray 22.08 Cryogenic Cooling, Magnets [Bromberg] 22.09 Radioactive Materials Treatment and Management El-Guebaly 22.10 Fuel Handling and Storage Steiner 22.11 Maintenance Equipment Waganer 22.12 Instrumentation and Control Weaver 22.13 Other Plant Equipment Waganer23 Turbine Plant Equipment Schultz24 Electric Plant Equipment Schultz25 Miscellaneous Plant Equipment Waganer26 Heat Rejection Equipment Waganer27 Special Materials Waganer


SupportI have contacted Ron Miller several times to help understand the ARIES costing algorithms and he has provided a lot of data and understanding.

Farrokh Najmabadi offered to define requirements for the vacuum pumping system.

Ken Schultz is having someone look into the cost of Turbine Plant Equipment.


Present Status

• All the modeling and documentation has been completed and reported, most recently April 2009

• Developed an Excel spreadsheet comparing most Cost Accounts to the ARIES-AT published estimate

• Model contains new recommended cost algorithms for inclusion into systems code

• Spreadsheet results indicated some inconsistencies that required model adjustments

• Documentation was revised to be compatible

• Model and algorithms provided to systems code developer


Major Changes and Remaining Needs• All building costs settled

• Recommending discontinuing the use of all LSA factors

• Material costs are updated, but need Systems Code to calculate FWB, shields, manifolds, power core structure, and vacuum vessel masses.

• Need further definition from Design Team on:

o Magnet System (need to document algorithms)

o Heating and Current Drive (need to define algorithms and parameters)

o Vacuum System (need to define algorithms and parameters) (Vessel OK)

• Main Heat Transfer and Transport algorithms revised and recommended

• Rad Waste, Fuel Handling, Maintenance Equipment and I&C revised

• GA is working on the Turbine Plant Equipment costs

• Other plant equipment updated

• Special Materials (primary lithium) not updated in 25 years. Obtained a quote for lithium and worked with Laila El-Guebaly on enrichment costs (much lower price)


Relative Subsystem Costs Helped Normalize Specific Subsystems

Power Core Costs, ARIES-AT, LSA1

18%

21%

14%12%

4%

17%

0%

4%3%

4%

1%

2%

22.01 Fus Energy Cap & Conv

22.02 Plasma Confinement

22.03 Plasma Form ^&Sustainment

22.04 Vacuum, Power Core

22.05 Primary Structure & Suppt

22.06 Main Heat Trans & Trnspt

22.07 Radioactive Matl Treat &Mgmt

22.08 Fuel Handling and Storage

22.09 Maintenance Equipment

22.10 Instrumentation and Control

22.11 Other Power CoreEquipment

Spares

Comparison of ARIES_AT Power Core Subsystem Costs Cost Cost

Subsytem LSA1 LSA222.01 Fus Energy Cap & Conv $202.86 $214.1522.02 Plasma Confinement $226.65 $239.3822.03 Plasma Form & Sustainment $156.70 $165.9222.04 Vacuum, Power Core $134.47 $142.3822.05 Primary Structure & Suppt $39.12 $41.4222.06 Main Heat Trans & Trnspt $182.98 $304.9722.07 Radioactive Matl Treat & Mgmt $4.87 $5.1622.08 Fuel Handling and Storage $43.78 $46.3622.09 Maintenance Equipment $38.59 $40.8622.10 Instrumentation and Control $47.93 $50.7522.11 Other Power Core Equipment $5.81 $6.15Spares $21.68 $22.95

$1,105.45 $1,280.46

These are results from the published ARIES-AT published data in the new Cost Breakdown Structure. Depending on the LSA rating, the MHTT is a little less or greater than most power core subsystems. These data were used to help adjust the relative costs of the subsystems.

2009$


Main Heat Transfer and TransportARIES-AT Cost Comparison

ARIES-AT LSA=1 ARIES-AT LSA=222. 1. 1. FW/blanket/reflector 93.37322. 1. 2. shield 100.82422. 1. 3. magnets 184.02422. 1. 4. supplemental-heating/CD systems 53.83322. 1. 5. primary structure & support 39.12322. 1. 6. reactor vacuum systems 143.47622. 1. 7. power supply, switching & energy storage 73.71422. 1. 8. impurity control 5.94722. 1. 9. direct energy conversion system 0.00022. 1.10. ecrh breakdown system 5.746 22. 1. reactor equipment 700.089 22. 2. main heat transfer & transport systems 182.981

22. 1. 1. FW/blanket/reflector 98.560 22. 1. 2. shield 106.425 22. 1. 3. magnets 194.247 22. 1. 4. supplemental-heating/CD systems 59.533 22. 1. 5. primary structure & support 43.266 22. 1. 6. reactor vacuum systems 158.669 22. 1. 7. power supply, switching & energy storage 81.518 22. 1. 8. impurity control 6.577 22. 1. 9. direct energy conversion system 0.000 22. 1.10. ecrh breakdown system 6.386 22. 1. reactor equipment 755.185 22. 2. main heat transfer & transport systems 304.969

Expressed in 2009$

The main heat transfer subsystem is generally too high in relationship to any of the other power core subsystems, except when the LSA=2 factor of 0.60 is applied. New algorithms are in better agreement with other subsystems. Nb IHX is an adder.

New Algorithms ARIES-AT LSA4 ARIES-AT LSA1 ARIES-AT LSA2

Main Heat Transfer and Transport $144.22 $304.97 1.0 $182.98 0.60 $304.97 1.00

If a dual coolant blanket is used, both helium and liquid primary systems will be used

Primary (water or liquid metals) Heat Transfer Loop (Servicing first wall, blanket, and HT shield)$144.22 $240.30 1.0 $144.18 0.60 $240.30 1.00

= $125 M x (Pth/2000)^0.55 (Liquid Metal) + $0.010 M x Pth (Nb IHX adder only for LiPb systems)= $50 M x (Pth/200)^0.55 (Water or Organic Coolant) Primary (Helium) Heat Transfer Loop (Servicing first wall, blanket, and HT shield) (if used)$0.00

= $110 M x (Pth/2000)^0.55 (Helium) Limiter or Divertor Primary Heat Transfer Loop (May tie into same IHX, SG) $0.00 $22.69 1.0 $13.61 0.60 $22.69 1.00

= $125 M x (Pth/2000)^0.55 (Liquid Metal or helium) Intermediate Heat Transfer Loop $0.00 $41.98 1.0 $25.19 0.60 $41.98 1.00

= $50 M x (Pth/2000)^0.55 (Sodium or Helium)


Revised Main Heat Transfer and TransportCosting Algorithms

Primary and diverter loops Water and organic coolant: $50 M x (gross thermal power/2000)0.55 (in 2009$)

Liquid Metal (Li and LiPb): $125 M x (gross thermal power/2000)0.55 (in 2009$)High Pressure Helium: $110 M x (gross thermal power/2000)0.55 (in 2009$)Adder for Nb IHX $0.010 M x gross thermal power in MW (in 2009$)Intermediate loop Sodium or Helium: $50 x (gross thermal power/2000)0.55 (in 2009$)

• Cost modeling seldom matched documented engineering design• Prior ARIES modeling used 3500 MW thermal power as basis• Modeled Primary, Intermediate, and Secondary? (Turbine) loops• LSA1 Cost factor (0.6) skewed results, new designs probably LSA = 1• Nb IHX in LiPb not used, S. Malang estimated $0.0174M/MW – then I

scaled down by 60% for 85% learning curve.• MHTT subsystem costs much too high in comparison to other power

core subsystems


Special Material Costs

Notional Lithium Enrichment Cost

$0.00

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Lithium Enrichment

Co

st, $

/kg

, 20

09$

Quoted natural Li prices were in line with inflation. Open literature suggests new, lower cost enrichment processes may be available in the future. For the moment, the 90% enriched lithium price is set at $1000/kg as opposed to $2300/kg (UWTOR basis). Also the cost/kg should increase faster due to reduced processing efficiency at higher enrichment levels (not linear).

2009$Fusion Plant Design Primary Intermediate Turbine Ar Cvr Gas Reported

Starfire H2O Steam $0.58

EBTR H2O Steam $0.58

Prom-HI Pb & He Steam $1.96ARIES-I He Steam Yes $0.94ARIES-I' He Steam Yes $1.02ARIES-II Li Na? Steam Yes $21.50ARIES-III OC Steam Yes $0.87ARIES-IV He Steam Yes $0.87ARIES-RS Li Na Steam Yes $16.08ARIES-AT LiPb Helium Yes $121.68ARIES-ST LiPb & He Helium Yes $158.15ARIES-CS LiPb & He Helium Yes $173.48

Working Fluids

Main enriched lithium data source was UWTOR-M (1982). Lithium heat transfer fluid increased cost by 10 and enriched Li increased it by another factor of 10 or so.


Land and Land RightsCost, M$ in 2009$

Published dataNomenclatureLand and Land Rights $24.00 $15.38 $15.38 $15.38

Land and Privilege Acquistion $20.00 NA NA NA=$20M x (Pnet/1000)^0.3 Relocation of Buildings, Utilities, Highways, and Other Services $4.00 NA NA NA= (20.01) x 0.2

ARIES-ATNew Calculation

LSA = 2LSA = 4 LSA = 4Published data Published data

LSA = 1

A Few Pages From the Spreadsheet

This gives you an idea of how the spreadsheet is constructed, with Cost Accounts identified, new cost algorithms defined and evaluated for ARIES-AT with published AT data for LSA 4, 1, and 2. Any known omissions are noted. Additionally, the Systems Code must generate powers, flow rates and volumes to provide data for some algorithms, so these are blank at the moment.


Structures and Site FacilitiesCost, M$ in 2009$

Published dataNomenclature



LSA = 1Used unpublished AT cost breakdown, does not match with revised AT algorithms

Structures and Site Facilities $429.91 $543.60 $368.29 $450.64

Site Improvements and Facilities $27.00 $27.17 1.0 $27.17 1.00 $27.17 1.00

= $27M x (site acres/1000 A)^0.2 Power Core Building $159.55 $227.26 1.0 $136.36 0.60 $204.53 0.90

= $113.43M x (Power Core Bldg Vol/80,000)^0.62 Turbine - Generator Building $77.60 $50.43 1.0 $50.43 1.00 $50.43 1.00

= $78.76 M x (Pe gross/1246)^0.5 Heat Rejection Structures and Facilities $11.63 $18.02 1.0 $10.81 0.60 $12.07 0.67

= $17.6 M x ((Pth-Pe gross)/1860)^0.5 Electrical Equipment and Power Supply Building $23.24 $22.06 1.0 $13.24 0.60 $14.78 0.67

= $23.24 M x (Pe net/1000)^0.3 Plant Auxiliary Systems Building (including Switchgear) $22.66 $7.85 1.0 $4.71 0.60 $5.26 0.67

= $23.09 M x (Pe gross/1246)^0.3 Hot Cell Building (including Maintenance and Radioactive Material Storage and Reprocessing)$54.25 $129.34 1.0 $77.60 0.60 $86.66 0.67

= 34% of Power Core Building Cost Power Core Service Building (Non-Radioactive Service?) $4.36 $4.53 1.0 $4.53 1.00 $4.53 1.00

= $4.36 M x (Pnet/1000)^0.3 Service Water Building $1.59 $1.45 1.0 $1.45 1.00 $1.45 1.00

= $1.59* M x (Pnet/1000)^0.3 Fuel Handling and Storage Building $25.00 $20.79 1.0 $12.47 0.60 $13.93 0.67

= $25 M x (Fusion Power/1759)^0.3 Control Room Building $7.20 $7.47 1.0 $7.47 1.00 $7.47 1.00

= $7.20 M On-Site A/C Power Supply Building $4.76 $4.94 1.0 $4.94 1.00 $4.94 1.00

= $4.76 M x (Pnet/1000)^0.3 Administration Building $2.02 $2.10 1.0 $2.10 1.00 $2.10 1.00

= $2.02 M Site Service Building $2.02 $1.53 1.0 $1.53 1.00 $1.53 1.00

= $2.02 M Cryogenics and Inert Gas Storage Building $2.11 $2.19 1.0 $2.19 1.00 $2.19 1.00

= $2.11 M Security Building $0.72 $1.45 1.0 $1.45 1.00 $1.45 1.00

= $0.72 M Ventilation Stack $4.20 $4.36 1.0 $2.62 0.60 $2.92 0.67

= $4.2 MSpare Parts Allowance (include in individual costs) NA $10.66 1.0 $7.22 1.00 $7.22 1.00

Use ARIES Algorithm, better calculate building volume

Use Prometheus Algorithm, scaled to Pe gross

Use Prometheus Algorithm, scaled to rejected thermal power

Use Prometheus Algorithm, scaled to net electrical power

Use Prometheus Algorithm, scaled to Pe gross

Use 34% of Power Core Building

Scaled constant by acres used


Fusion Energy Capture and ConversionCost, M$ in 2009$




LSA = 1

Power Core Equipment $426.51 $1,110.71 $878.80 $1,041.08

Fusion Energy Capture and Conversion $225.79 $202.86 $214.15

First Wall and Blanket, replaceable, inboard and outboard TBD $103.75 1.0 $93.37 0.90 $98.56 0.95

= sum of products of unit cost per mass x mass of components Second Blanket, life of plant,outboard (maybe inboard) TBD Cost of Second, life of plant blanket not calculated

= sum of products of unit cost per mass x mass of components Divertor Assembly, upper and lower, replaceable TBD $7.00 1.0 $5.95 0.85 $6.30 0.90

= sum of products of unit cost per mass x mass of componentsThis divertor entry is for Impurity Control - Is this the divertor? It uses area for a parameter

High Temperature Shielding/Structure, outside of blanket and divertor, life of plant TBD $86.12 1.0 $77.50 0.90 $81.81 0.95

= sum of products of unit cost per mass x mass of components Low Temperature Shielding, outside of high temperature shield, life of plant TBD Shielding divided by primary & scndry (pentration?), allocated by %, Engr smry coes not correspond

= sum of products of unit cost per mass x mass of componentsNeed to identify Hi Temp and Penetration shielding

Penetration Shielding (low temperature, active and passive) TBD $25.91 1.0 $23.32 0.90 $24.61 0.95

= sum of products of unit cost per mass x mass of components Shield cooling, low temperature $3.02 1.0 $2.72 0.90 $2.87 0.95

= basic subsystem cost scaled to nominal shield cooling power ^TBD TBD

Not a complete sum

This page illustrates that Systems Code data on volumes and masses are needed to complete the cost assessment.


Plasma ConfinementCost, M$ in 2009$




LSA = 1

• Some magnet costing algorithms do exist, but more definitive design information is needed and these algorithms need to be documented

• Feedback coils need to be added

• Cryogenics and Power Supplies need to be defined and estimated. The costs shown were subdivided from prior grouped cost accounts (Team decided to subdivide to user account)

Plasma Confinement $254.62 1.0 $226.65 0.90 $239.38 0.95

Toroidal Field Coils (conductor, case, bucking cylinder, cryostat, struts, structure) TBD $42.23 1.0 $38.01 0.90 $40.12 0.95

= sum of products of unit cost per mass x mass of components or magnetic field and energy Conductor and Cable Structural Coil Case Cost not calculated

Bucking Cylinder Cost not calculated

Cryostat and Thermal Shield Cost not calculated

Thermal Isolation Struts Cost not calculated

Anti-torque structure Cost not calculated

Poloidal Field Coils (Central Solenoid and Outer Poloidal), Lower Spares included TBD $162.24 1.0 $146.02 0.90 $154.13 0.95

= sum of products of unit cost per mass x mass of components or magnetic field and energy Feedback Control Coils (Normal conducting) Cost of divertor not calculated

= sum of products of unit cost per mass x mass of components or magnetic field and energyTBD

Cryogenics for Plasma Confinement (including dewar vacuum pumping) $47.74 1.0 $40.58 0.85 $42.96 0.90

= Unit cost x cooling capacity TBD

Power Supplies for Plasma Confinement $2.41 1.0 $2.05 0.85 $2.17 0.90

= Unit cost x power supply capacity TBD


Plasma Formation and SustainmentCost, M$ in 2009$




LSA = 1

Plasma Formation and Sustainment TBD $184.36 1.0 $156.70 0.85 $165.92 0.90

Heating and Current Drive with power supplies (Primarily Steady State) TBD 1.0 0.85 0.90

= Unit cost x H&CD power to plasma Ion Cyclotron Resonance Frequency (ICRF) Fast Wave Heating and Current Drive $5.55 1.0 $4.72 0.85 $5.00 0.90

Lower Hybrid (LH) Wave Plasma Heating and Current Drive $57.76 1.0 $49.10 0.85 $51.98 0.90

Electron Cyclotron Resonance Frequency (ECRF) Plasma Heating and Current Drive Algorithms did not seem to be applied, Costs subdivided by power level

Neutral Particle Beam Plasma Heating, Current Drive and Rotation $0.02 1.0 No NB? $0.02 0.85 $0.02 0.90

Misc Power Supplies for Heating and CD $84.31 1.0 $71.67 0.85 $75.88 0.90

Misc cooling systems for Heating and CD $12.04 1.0 $10.24 0.85 $10.84 0.90

Startup subsystems with power supplies TBD

= Unit cost x startup power to plasma Electron Cyclotron Resonance Frequency (ECRF) Wave Plasma Breakdown $6.79 1.0 $5.77 0.85 $6.11 0.90

Ion Cyclotron Resonance Frequency (ICRF) Wave Current Initiation and Ramp-Up 1.0 0.85 0.90

Lower Hybrid (LH) Wave Current Initiation and Ramp-Up 1.0 0.85 0.90

Stability Control subsystem with power supplies (Primarily Transient) TBD No Costs estimated

= Unit cost x Stability power to plasma Electron Cyclotron Resonance Frequency (ECRF) Wave Plasma Control 1.0 0.85 0.90

Neutral Particle Beam Plasma Control 1.0 0.85 0.90

Plasma Fueling and Constituent Control

= Unit cost x # injectors or unit cost scaled to fuel rate TBD

Pellet Injection Fueling and Constituent Control $17.87 1.0 $15.19 0.85 $16.08 0.90

Neutral (Particle) Beam Injection (NBI) Fueling and Constituent Control 1.0 0.85 0.90

• More definitive subsystems information and costing algorithms are needed

• Need to define Startup, Stability Control, and Plasma Fueling and Constituent Control Subsystems

• Need to define Power Supplies and Cryogenics for all subsystems


Vacuum, Power Core and Primary StructureCost, M$ in 2009$




LSA = 1

Vacuum, Power Core $49.08 +shielding $158.21 1.0 $134.47 0.85 $142.38 0.90

Vacuum Vessel $49.08 $130.48 1.0 $110.91 0.85 $117.44 0.90

= $44.08/kg x mass of vacuum vessel including all ports and doors + shielding unit cost x mass Helium Liquefier-Refrigerators TBD 1.0 0.85 0.90

= Unit cost x sum of cooling capacity Primary Vacuum Pumps (cryocondensation, cryosorption, cryodiffusion, and/or turbo-molecular)TBD $27.72 1.0 $23.56 0.85 $24.95 0.90

= Unit cost x sum of primary vacuum pumps capacityCosts not subdivided between primary and roughing pumps

Roughing or Backing Pumps TBD 1.0 0.85 0.90

= Unit cost x sum of roughing vacuum pumps capacity Vacuum Pumping Ducts (vac duct shielding in 22.01.06) TBD 1.0 No Ducts included 0.85 0.90

= $28.48 M/kg x mass of pumping ducts + shielding unit cost x mass Plumbing, Cryogenic TBD 1.0 0.85 0.90

= Unit cost for size of pipes x pipe length + pump costs x # pumps Leak Detection? Or include in Instrumentation? 1.0 0.85 0.90

Primary Structure and Support, Power Core TBD $46.03 1.0 $39.12 0.85 $41.42 0.90

Carry-Through Structure TBD $46.03 1.0 $39.12 0.85 $41.42 0.90

= sum of products of unit cost per mass x mass of components

• Need definition on all vacuum pumps, liquefiers, ducts, and plumbing

• Need definition on primary structure (carry through structure plus other)


Main Heat Transfer and Transport

Cost, M$ in 2009$




LSA = 1

Main Heat Transfer and Transport $144.22 $304.97 1.0 $182.98 0.60 $304.97 1.00

If a dual coolant blanket is used, both helium and liquid primary systems will be used

Primary (water or liquid metals) Heat Transfer Loop (Servicing first wall, blanket, and HT shield)$144.22 $240.30 1.0 $144.18 0.60 $240.30 1.00

= $125 M x (Pth/2000)^0.55 (Liquid Metal) + $0.010 M x Pth (Nb IHX adder only for LiPb systems)= $50 M x (Pth/200)^0.55 (Water or Organic Coolant) Primary (Helium) Heat Transfer Loop (Servicing first wall, blanket, and HT shield) (if used)$0.00

= $110 M x (Pth/2000)^0.55 (Helium) Limiter or Divertor Primary Heat Transfer Loop (May tie into same IHX, SG) $0.00 $22.69 1.0 $13.61 0.60 $22.69 1.00

= $125 M x (Pth/2000)^0.55 (Liquid Metal or helium) Intermediate Heat Transfer Loop $0.00 $41.98 1.0 $25.19 0.60 $41.98 1.00

= $50 M x (Pth/2000)^0.55 (Sodium or Helium)

Already Discussed


Rad Materials, Fuel Handling, and MaintenanceCost, M$ in 2009$




LSA = 1

Radioactive Materials Treatment and Management (off-line) $15.01 $5.73 1.0 $4.87 0.85 $5.16 0.90

= $15 M x (fusion power/1758)^0.80 (normalized to ARIES-AT)

Liquid Materials Processing Equipment (including final detritiation)

= basic subsystem cost scaled to gross thermal power ^TBD Gaseous Materials Processing Equipment (including final detritiation)

= basic subsystem cost scaled to gross thermal power ^TBD Solid Materials Processing Equipment (including detrititation)

= basic subsystem cost scaled to gross thermal power ^TBD

Fuel Handling and Storage (on-line) $70.03 $51.51 1.0 $43.78 0.85 $46.36 0.90

= $70 M x (fusion power/1758)^0.80 (normalized to ARIES-AT) Chamber Exhaust Gas Handling and Processing Equipment Purge and Cover Gas Handling Processing Equipment Primary Coolant Stream Handling and Processing Equipment (including on-line adjustment of Li enrichment)$8.93 1.0 $7.59 0.85 $8.04 0.90

Other Liquid and Gaseous Coolant Stream Handling and Processing Equipment $8.93 1.0 $7.59 0.85 $8.04 0.90

Purification and Isotope Separation Equipment $20.24 1.0 $17.20 0.85 $18.21 0.90

Tritium, Deuterium, and DT Storage Equipment $8.93 1.0 $7.59 0.85 $8.04 0.90

Atmospheric Tritium Recovery Equipment (Power Core, Hot Cell, Fuel Handling Buildings) $4.47 1.0 $3.80 0.85 $4.02 0.90

Maintenance Equipment $100.00 $45.40 1.0 $38.59 0.85 $40.86 0.90

= $100 M x (P e net/1000)^0.80 Power Core Maintenance Equipment $30.76 1.0 $26.15 0.85 $27.68 0.90

Hot Cell Maintenance Equipment $7.80 1.0 $6.63 0.85 $7.02 0.90

Fuel Handling Maintennace Equipment $5.13 1.0 $4.36 0.85 $4.61 0.90

Other Plant Equipment Maintenance Equipment $1.71 1.0 $1.45 0.85 $1.54 0.90

• Rad Waste tripled as a temporary definition

• Fuel Handling has been underestimated- Increase by 60% (ref ITER w/learning )

• Maintenance never estimated – Use placeholder of $100M scaled to Pe net


I&C and Other Power Core EquipCost, M$ in 2009$




LSA = 1

Instrumentation and Control $60.00 $56.39 1.0 $47.93 0.85 $50.75 0.90

= $60 M (constant) Power Core Instrumentation & Control Equipment Radiation Monitoring Equipment Isolated Indicating & Recording Equipment Data Acquisition and Recording Equipment Communications Equipment

Other Power Core Equipment $8.00 $6.84 1.0 $5.81 0.85 $6.15 0.90

= $8 M x (P e net/1000)^0.80 Special Heating Equipment $1.71 1.0 $1.45 0.85 $1.54 0.90

Special Cooling Equipment (low temp shield, vacuum vessel, other structures) Coolant Receiving, Storage and Makeup Equipment $1.71 1.0 $1.45 0.85 $1.54 0.90

Gas Systems Equipment $3.42 1.0 $2.91 0.85 $3.08 0.90

Inert Atmosphere Equipment (Power Core,Hot Cell, and Fuel Handling Buildings)Spare Parts Allowance (include in individual costs) NA $25.50 1.0 $21.68 0.85 $22.95 0.90

Contingency Allowance (include in Acct 96)

• All I&C estimates originate from Starfire estimate of $55M (now obsolete technology). ITER is more complex at roughly $336M. Need to re-estimate, but use placeholder of $60M.

• Starfire and EBTR had a detailed definition of Other Power Core Costs, but since then it has been lumped into a Misc category. Suggest $8M scaled to net electrical power

• Spares are now estimated with the prime account


TPE, EPE, HR, and MPECost, M$ in 2009$




LSA = 1

Turbine - Generator Equipment TBD Shultz $353.03 1.0 $353.03 1.0 $353.03 1.00

Being developed by General Atomics Turbine - Generators $346.11 1.0 $346.11 1.00 $346.11 1.00

Main Steam or other Main Heat Transfer Fluid System Condensing or Heat Sink Heat Exhanger Systems Feedwater Heating or Heat Recovery System Other Turbine Plant Equipment Turbine Plant Instrumentation & ControlSpare Parts Allowance (include in individual costs) NA $6.92 1.0 $6.92 1.00 $6.92 1.00


Electric Plant Equipment $183.63 $143.09 1.0 $143.09 1.00 $143.09 1.00

= $186 M x (P e gross/1200)^0.50 Switchgear Station Service Equipment Switchboards, including Heat Tracing Protective Equipment Electrical Structures and Wiring Containers Power and Control Wiring Electrical LightingSpare Parts Allowance (include in individual costs) included


Heat Rejection Equipment $31.91 $33.87 1.0 $33.87 1.00 $33.87 1.00

= $90.31 M x ((Pth - P e gross-)/2300 Water Intake Common Facilities Circulating Water Systems Cooling Towers Other Heat Rejection SystemsSpare Parts Allowance (include in individual costs)Contingency Allowance (include in Acct 96)

Miscellaneous Plant Equipment $83.70 $68.78 1.0 $68.78 1.00 $68.78 1.00

= $85 M x (P e gross/1200)^0..6

Transportation and Lifting Equipment $21.41 1.0 $21.41 1.00 $21.41 1.00

Air and Water Service Systems $27.71 1.0 $27.71 1.00 $27.71 1.00

Communications Equipment $13.78 1.0 $13.78 1.00 $13.78 1.00

Furnishings and Fixtures $3.88 1.0 $3.88 1.00 $3.88 1.00

Spare Parts Allowance (include in individual costs) $2.00 1.0 $2.00 1.00 $2.00 1.00


ARIES incorrectly related to primary coolant fluid - GA assessing

No reason to use LSA factors. Use ARIES algorithm scaled to Pe gross

Use ARIES algorithm scaled to P rej thermal

Use ARIES algorithm scaled to P e gross

(ARIES-AT and ST did not use?)


Special MaterialsLithium Already Discussed

Cost, M$ in 2009$




LSA = 1

• Need to estimate the cost of helium and argon at present prices.

Special Materials $47.32 $121.68 $121.68 $121.68 Primary coolant (AT was LiPb) $46.32 $120.67 1.0 $120.67 1.00 $120.67 1.00

= mass of Primary fluid x material unit cost with enrichment Divertor coolant (AT included in primary) $0.00

= mass of Primary fluid x material unit cost with enrichment Intermediate Loop Coolant $0.00 1.0 1.00 1.00

= mass of Primary fluid x material unit cost with enrichment Turbine cycle Working Fluids TBD 1.0 1.00 1.00

= mass of Primary fluid x material unit cost with enrichment Other Special Materials $0.60 $0.60 1.0 $0.60 1.00 $0.60 1.00

=$0.6 M (Constant) Argon Power Core Cover Gas $0.40 $0.41 1.0 $0.41 1.00 $0.41 1.00

=$0.4 M (Constant)


Construction Facilities, Equipment and Services $140.89 $399.36 $249.68 $296.03

= Total Direct Cost x 0.1130 Temporary Facilities Construction Equipment Construction ServicesHome Office Engineering and Services $64.83 $137.53 $114.90 $128.28

= Total Direct Cost x 0.0.52 Systems Engineering Management Services Quality Assurance Safety and Environmental EngineeringField Office Engineering and Services (Starfire combined 92 and 93 per PNL 2648)$64.83 $230.10 $114.90 $148.02

= Total Direct Cost x 0.0.52 Construction Management Inspection Pre-Operational Training

Owners Cost $227.60 $511.76 $403.36 $455.89

= (Total Direct Cost + subtotal of prior Indirect costs) x 0.15 Project Administration Staff Training and Plant Startup Inventories and Spares Administration

Process (design) Contingency $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Assumed to be zero due to 10-of-a-kind maturityProject Contingency $255.64 $574.80 $453.04 $512.04

= (Total Direct Cost + subtotal of prior Indirect costs) x 0.1465

Indirect CostsCost, M$ in 2009$




LSA = 1

Retain all present ARIES indirect cost factors, but calculate based on Direct costs and Indirect Costs as opposed to relating only to direct costs


Cost of Electricity Calculations

COE = [CAC + (CO&M + CSCR + CF) * (1 + y)Y]/(8760*PE* pf) + CD&D

CAC is the annual capital cost charge (total capital x FCR)

CO&M is the annual operations and maintenance cost

CSCR is the annual scheduled component replacement cost

CF is the annual fuel costs

y is the annual escalation rate (0.0 for constant dollar and y for current dollar)Y is the construction and startup period in yearsPE is the net electrical power (MWe)

pf is the plant capacity factor (~ plant availability)

CD&D is the annual decontamination and decommissioning converted to mills/kwhr


Gen IV Cost of Money and Financing assumptions have considerable impact

Thus the change in cost of money, no tax or depreciation effects, and a longer economic lifetime has reduced the Fixed Charge Rate by 40% and lowered the COE by 30% (see next chart).

“GEN IV “

New Code Revisions

value units value unitsCosting Reference year 2009Construction lead time 6 yEconomic Lifetime 30 y 40 y

Constant Nominal Constant ConstantEscalation (inflation rate) (nominal $) 0 0.05 0 0Nominal Cost of Money, without inflation 0.0605 0.1135 0.05 0.10Interest During Construction, IDC 0.01652 0.3178 0.1303 0.2744Dollar Discount Rate 0.0435 0.0957 0.05 0.10Fixed Charge Rate 0.0965 0.1637 0.0583 0.1023

AIRES-AT Published Data

Annual Capital Cost represents 77% of Annual Costs. So these factors have a lot of impact on the COE.

20?


Bottom Line COE Results

Use AT Costs

Fixed charge rate Basis is the GEN IV guidance, reference 11 0.05828 0.05828 0.09652 0.09652 0.09652

Economic life (ARIES = 30 years, GEN IV = 40 yrs) 40.00000 30.00000 30.00000 30.00000

Discount rate 0.05000 0.04350 0.04350 0.04350

FCR = discount rate/[1-(1+discount rate)^-economic life in years0.05828 0.09652 0.09652 0.09652

Annual Capital Cost $129.69 $240.76 $505.90 $398.74 $450.67

=Total Project Capital Cost x FCR

Annual Operations and Maintenance Cost $73.03 $73.03 $74.31 $74.31 $74.31

= $80 M x (Pe net/1200)^0.5 40 Salaries of Facility Personnel41 Annual Misc Supplies and Equipment42 Outside Support Services43 General and Adm (15% of Accts 40, 41, 42)

44 Annual Coolant Makeup (water)45 Annual Process Materials46 Annual Fuel Handling (handled by staff)47 Annual Miscellaneous

Scheduled Component Replacement Cost $0.00 $38.00 $37.96 $37.96 $37.96

= sum (cosf of FWB + divertor + other items of significant value/lifetimes)

Annual Fuel Cost $1.00 $1.00 $0.32 $0.32 $0.32

= $1.0M as a constant for deuterium

Decontamination and Decommissioning $2.70 $2.70 $2.70 $2.70 $2.70

= $2.7 M/y assessment (= 0.36 mill/kWh) 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36

Total Annual Costs $206.42 $355.49 $621.19 $514.03 $565.96

Cost of Electricity Mills/kWh 27.722 47.742 83.426 69.034 76.008

LSA 4 LSA 1 LSA2




LSA = 12009$


Current Status and Future Effort

These recommended cost algorithms were provided to be input into the ARIES Systems Code. Hopefully Zoran Dragojlovic has had the opportunity to make some estimates with these inputs.

Future Effort:

Analyze the complete results for consistency

Make any adjustments necessary

Provide additional information for Systems Code

Help validate Systems Code results

Perhaps publish costing documentation (at least post on Web)

Documents

ARIES- Pathways, August 26-27, Atlanta, GA Page 1 L. Waganer Consultant for The Boeing Company ARIES-Pathways Project Meeting 26-27 August 2009 Georgia