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Argus FMB NitrogenFormerly FMB Weekly Nitrogen Report
price guidemarket summary
india buys huge tonnage, us remains activeContinuing the theme of a split market, prilled urea prices are showing unusual stability while granular continues to firm.
Netbacks on Russian and Ukrainian urea are in the $370s/t fob for August, with little sign that demand is strong enough to move prices up. Meanwhile, traders have continued to grab any granular urea they can for shipment to North America, at prices up to $472/t fob Egypt and $450/t fob AG.
Although the exact tonnage is shrouded in mystery, it appears IPL bought close to 1.5m tonnes of urea under its 14 July tender. On this basis, traders will have to ship at least 1m tonnes of urea from China to cover the awards in the tender, with another 400-500,000t moving from Iran and Yuzhny.
An estimated 350-400,000t of the Chinese urea sold represents long positions being liquidated, with the balance to be purchased for shipment up to 10 September. This has stabilised Chinese in the $380s-390/t fob although traders will try to push prices lower as they cover the Indian sales.
Traders have bought another 160,000t of granular urea this week from various origins that will be shipped to the US and Canada in August. We estimate that US imports
An Argus Media company View the methodology used to assess nitrogen prices at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback is always welcome at [email protected]
argus FmB Nitrogen
urea FOB prices ($/t)
350
400
450
500
550AG Granular (All) Yuzhny Prilled
Issue 12-30 | Thursday 26 July 2012
FMB nitrogen fertilizer price guide
26-Jul 19-Jul
Prilled urea – fob bulkYuzhny 370-380 370-377Baltic 367-380 370-380Croatia/Romania 440-450 390-400Arabian Gulf 410-415 404-406Arabian Gulf (fob bagged) 420-425 414-416China 383-390 380-390Brazil (cfr) 410-413 405-415Granular urea – fob bulkArabian Gulf all netbacks 435-472 430-462Arabian Gulf – US netback* 463-472 439-462Arabian Gulf – non US netbacks 435-450 430Iran 385-390 380-385Egypt 472 450Indonesia/Malaysia 415-449 425-436Southeast Asia (cfr) 435-450 440-450Venezuela/Trinidad 430-474 420-451US Gulf (pst barge) 455-463 434-455US Gulf (cfr metric) 496-505 473-496* Basis 35-45,000t freightAmmonium sulphate – bulkfob Baltic (Caprolactam) 185-190 175-185fob Blk Sea (Caprolactam) 190-195 180-190fob Kherson (steel grade) 160-165 150-155cfr S.E. Asia 230-235 240-245Ammonium nitratefob bulk Baltic 270-277 270-277fob bulk Black Sea 265-268 265-275UAN (32%)Nola (short ton) 315-320 300-315Rouen 30% N fot (€ Euros) 263-265 245-250fob Black Sea 308-315 295-300Argus nitrogen indexArgus nitrogen index 266.563 261.123* Composite based on Argus FMB assessments for a basket of nitrogen-based fertilizers. The index is calculated such that 3 January 2009 = 100 for each component class of fertilizers.
Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 2 of 10
Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-30 | Thursday 26 July 2012
are running 35-40% above Q3 2011 and the effect is likely to be felt on prices shortly. Granular urea is trading at the equivalent of $490-495/t cfr in the US Gulf. There is limited upside at present despite very high crop prices.
Highlights this week
▪ IPL awards close to 1.5m tonnes of urea
▪ Granular prices rise on US buying....
▪ ....but concerns that Nola price could slip
▪ Market active in Central America
▪ Chinese urea on offer at $390/t fob
▪ Baltic netbacks in the $370s/t fob
▪ Strong demand pushes up UAN prices
Fsu, east eurOpe
yuzhnyThe urea market has been inactive this week. Producers with urea to sell for August are asking $400/t fob, which traders are unwilling to pay. Netbacks from sales in Latin America reflect $380/t fob at best.
NF is sold out for August. AFT has 20-30,000t left to sell. DniproAzot has 60-70,000t - its full availability - to sell.
Stocks of urea at OPZ total about 45,000t including about 20 rail cars waiting to discharge.
tuapseEurochem has sold most of the prilled and granular urea it has available for August loading.
prills
▪ US 10,000t for mid-August shipment to Nola, sold in barges at prices netting back to $445-446/t fob Tuapse
▪ Bulgaria 15,000t as a swap for UAN solutions
▪ Brazil 20,000t sold under a price formula (in combo with 15,000t of AN from Novorossisk.
granular
▪ US 25,000t for mid-August shipment in combination with prills. Prices netback to $450-460/t fob Tuapse from barge sales in Nola.
romaniaInteragro is producing prilled urea at its Slobozia plant. Koch is loading 30,000t for the US this week and Interagro has sold another 25-30,000t to load in early August at $450/t fob Constantza. It is considering producing more UAN at Slobozia and reducing solid urea production because of the firmer market for UAN.
BaLtic
Sales have taken place from the high-$360s-380/t fob this week. Producers report higher bids up to $390/t fob but there are no confirmed sales at that level. Netbacks from Latin America reflect the lower price range.
phosagro - Is bringing on-stream a new urea unit at Cherepovets that will double capacity. It is not offering urea from the new plant yet, which has a capacity of 495,000t/y, as it is waiting for the unit to achieve consistent production. Trammo has 25,000t of prilled urea to load in
yuzhny urea line up
Vessel t shipper/destination
Opp July
Comp Warnow Venus 27,500 NF/India
Comp Eurostar 3,300 Helm/Israel
Comp V do Castello 3,300 NF/Turkey
Comp Sparta 11,000 NF/Italy
Comp Osman D 2,200 Helm/Turkey
Comp Romea 14,000 AFT/Ecuador
Comp Z Cansu 6,300 Trammo/Turkey
Comp Yunus N 2,700 AFT/Lebanon
Comp Zafer Bey 8,400 Ameropa/Italy
Comp El Condor Paso 28,600 Ameropa/Mexico
Comp Brave Warrior 5,500 AFT/Lebanon
Comp Rima 25,000 Midgulf/Sri Lanka
Comp Zeyhan Ana 7,300 Trammo/Turkey
26 Angel Alia 20,800 Midgulf/Syria
27 Desert Spring 7,700 Trammo/Turkey
26 garip Baba 7,700 trammo/turkey
total 182,000
tis July
Comp Rodina 22,400 Dreymoor/
Comp Jasper 4,200 NF/Turkey
Comp Louisa Bolten 27,800 ADM/Brazil
Comp Al Mostafa 4,000 Dreymoor/Lebanon
Comp GMD Maya 3,300 NF/Turkey
Comp Marwan A 7,500 Midgulf/Syria
Comp Agios Nikolos 19,000 Keytrade/Nigeria
Comp Paula S 4,200 Koch/France
Comp Ilgas 8,600 Keytrade/Turkey
Ldg Eastgate 27,500 Ameropa/WCSA
total 123,400
total July 305,400
Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 3 of 10
Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-30 | Thursday 26 July 2012
first half August. Another 25,000t lot is available for end-August loading.
grodno - Held a sales tender on 24 July for up to 40,000t of prilled urea for August shipment. Due to a high level of interest in the cargo, Grodno revised its price ideas and invited bids at or above $405/t fob. Traders lost interest at that level.
uralchem – Sold 15,000t of prilled urea for August shipment to east coast Central America at a price netting to $365-370/t fob. It also sold a cargo to Brazil late last week netting around $372/t fob St Petersburg. It has fixed a Polsteam tbn at $37/t to load 25,000t of urea in Kotka in August for two ports Brazil.
eurochem - Has sold 30,000t of granular urea for early-August shipment from Klaipeda to Nola and 25,000t for mid-August shipment to Nola at prices netting back to $455-460/t fob.
Biofert - Has 10,000t of Salavat urea to sell for August shipment from Riga.
sBu azot - Is offering 25,000t of urea for August shipment. Price indications are around $375/t fob.
eurOpe
turkeyKastamonu tendered for 3,000t of prilled urea this week, but scrapped the tender because prices were too high. Offers were made at the equivalent of $380/t fob Yuzhny.
FranceOCI and Yara have raised prices for granular urea by Euros 5/t to Euros 410/t fca in French Atlantic ports this week. This is equivalent to $445-450/t fob Egypt, coming before the latest increase in Egyptian prices to $472/t fob. The increase is mainly due to the weakness of the euro against the dollar. The euro is about 20% lower against the dollar compared to the same time last year.
Yara is shipping a total of 12,000t of granular urea from Italy in July-August to Sete, Bordeaux and La Pallice.
italyThe agricultural market has ended and Yara has reduced its granular urea price by Euros 20/t to Euros 430/t fca bagged, or roughly $480/t cfr Ravenna duty free/paid.
Yara has been promoting granular urea exports. It has lined up 12,000t for shipment in three vessels to France (Sete, Bordeaux and La Pallice). The m/v Irma arrived this week at Ravenna to load roughly 30,000t for Brazil. Prior to this, Yara loaded 28,000t in two vessels for Canada.
Truckloads of prilled urea have sold at Euros 390-395/t fca Ravenna this week.
aFrica
egyptHelwan held a sales tender on 24 July for 25,000t of granular urea for 15-20 August loading. After a second round of bidding, Trammo took the award at $472/t fob. Koch bid close to $470/t fob. Agrium and CHS were also bidding for the cargo.
Baltic urea export sales – July
supplier Buyer market ‘000t
Phosagro Nitron S America 25
Agronova traders pt cargoes 25
SBU Azot turnaround 0
Uralchem Brazil 25
Helm Mexico 25
Helm Africa 10
Eurochem granular US 11
granular Benelux 4
Grodno Cuba 15
trader L America 15
Biofert Ameropa L America 10
Ameropa trader Europe 5
total 170
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INSPECTION TESTING AND CONSULTING SERVICES TO THE FERTILIZER INDUSTRY AND TRADE FROM PRODUCER TO END-USER
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Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 4 of 10
Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-30 | Thursday 26 July 2012
algeriaA government tender for 70,000t of urea closes on 31 July. It requires the urea for delivery September-December. Romanian, Croatian and Egyptian urea benefits from a 15% duty advantage over CIS urea in Algeria and should be the most competitive.
middLe east
Producers are comfortably placed for August on granular due to spot demand from the US and contract shipments to Thailand, Australia and elsewhere.
FmB spot sales selection – 26 July 2012
product Origin seller Buyer destination ’000t $pt bulk shipment
prilled urea
Black Sea Keytrade Fertica El Salvador 15 420 cfr August
Baltic Trammo Incofe WCCA 10 380 fob August
Baltic Uralchem Incofe ECCA 15 400 cfr August
CIS trader Heringer Brazil 25 410-415 cfr August
China trader SFC South Korea 5 low-400s cfr August
China Quantum IPL India wc 55 406 cfr August-Sept
China Amber IPL India ec 55 409 cfr August-Sept
Indonesia PIM Brio Philippines 10 495 fob August
granular urea
China Keytrade Consortium Mexico wc 47 440 cfr August
China trader Simplot US wc 25 435 fob eq August
China CNOOC Trammo US 25 435 fob August
China trader Dongbu South Korea 3-5 430 cfr August
Indonesia Kaltim Trada 30 447 fob August
Indonesia Kaltim CHS US 30 449.25 fob August
Egypt Helwan Trammo 25 472 fob August
Iran Fertland C America 2 x 40 440s cfr August
UAE Fertil Trammo US 25 August
aN
Baltic Uralchem Incofe ECCA 10 August
Baltic Helm Incofe WCCA 25 275-280 fob August
Baltic Dreymoor Incofe WCCA 10 275-280 fob August
Black Sea Keytrade Fertica El Salvador 10 320 cfr August
Black Sea NF Turkey 25 265 fob August
uaN
Romania Interagro trader US 25 310-315 fob August
Romania Interagro trader US 30 310-315 fob August
Romania Interagro trader US 25-30 315-320 fob September
Russia Eurochem Canada/US ec 25-30 308 fob August
Russia Eurochem Gavilon US ec 30 340 cfr August
Russia Eurochem Gavilon US ec 30 338 cfr August
Klaipeda Grodno trader 25 315 fob September
Baltic CFQ Canada 15-20 350s cfr August
Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 5 of 10
Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-30 | Thursday 26 July 2012
FertilTrammo has bought 25,000t of granular urea for 11-15 August shipment to the US. The price has not been revealed, but Fertil had been offering the cargo at $450/t fob.
asia
indiaIPL says it has finalised a total of 1.5m tonnes of urea under its 14 July tender for urea. Negotiations continued into the middle of this week. The list of purchases under the tender has not been made public and the figures shown below are estimates.
The tonnage is greater than expected and accounts for about 25% of India’s import requirement up to the end of the year. It may allow India more flexibility in deciding the timing of the next tender, but more than anything it represents a very large tonnage secured at a low price.
urea supply 2012-13Indian urea supply was about 13% down in the first three months of the current fiscal year, compared to April-June 2011, mainly due to lower imports. Sales were down about 5% year-on-year.
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middle east export sales
supplier Buyer/market ‘000t month
granularsabic Thailand 70-75 July
Avail 225kt Australia 30 July
balance 0 New Zealand 25-30 July
US 60 July
S Africa 25-30 July
Qafco Thailand 75 July
Avail 280kt Australia 55-60 July
balance 10kt S Africa 25 July
Yara/Brazil 30 July
Yara/US 50 July
Lat America 30 July
pic Gavilon/US 30 July
Avail 105kt CHS/US 45 July
Balance 0kt Australia 30 July
Oman Toepfer/US 45 July
Avail 110kt Koch/US 30 July
balance 0kt CHS/US 45 July-Aug
Fertil Sri Lanka 24 July
Avail 70kt CHS/US 25 July
balance 0kt Keytrade/E Africa 20 July
Bangladesh 12-14 July
prilledsabic South Africa 15 July
Avail 50kt Malaysia 10-15 July
balance 0 Philippines 15 July
East Africa 12-15 August
Qafco Pakistan 50 July
Avail 80kt Helm/SE Asia 30 July
balance 0kt
ipL 14 July tender awards
supplier Origin 000t dischargel
NF Ukraine 100 MundraHelm China 100 MundraComtrade Iran 100 WCITransglobe Iran/China 200 WCI/ECIKisan China 50 ECI
Iran/China 30 WCIMTPL China 50 WCIAmeropa China 50 Pipavav
China 60 KaraikalToepfer Middle East 25 TuticorinDreymoor China 300 WCI/ECILiven China 55 GvaraQuantum China 55 ECIAmber China 55 MundraSwiss Singapore China/Iran 100 WCI/ECIothers 150total 1,480
india - urea balance sheet april-June
2012-13 2011-12 change
Production 4949.49 5141.59 -192Imports 741.00 1,433 -692Sales 5574.46 5,898.47 -324Closing stock 411.74 565.77 -154
Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 6 of 10
Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-30 | Thursday 26 July 2012
Imports contracted to date in 2012-13 are about 2m tonnes, excluding Omifco, comprising 760,000t shipped under the May STC tender, 50-60,000t from Emmsons under IPL’s March tender and 1.2m tonnes under the latest IPL tender.
We estimate that India has to buy another 4.5m tonnes on the open market this year to meet its requirements. The below average monsoon may reduce the total requirement, however.
pakistanTCP will tender on 27 July for 50,000t of urea for shipment within 15 days of l/c opening.
CHS has fixed a tbn at $12/t to load 50,000t of urea prompt in Qatar for Gwadar under its sale to TCP at $426.39/t cfr in TCP’s 12 July tender.
BangladeshBCIC will tender on 12 September for 100,000t of prilled and 100,000t of granular urea for October shipment.
sri LankaThe ministry of agriculture closed a tender on 24 July for 12,000t of bagged urea for November delivery. Offers were as follows, prices in $/t cfr bagged. The lowest price is equivalent to about $390/t fob China based on current freights in the mid-$40s/t.
china
prilled urea The market is active with traders seeking to buy urea for August shipment to India. Based on total awards of 1.5m tonnes, we estimate that traders will need to ship about 1m tonnes from China to meet obligations under the IPL tender. Long positions will account for 300-400,000t of this, leaving 600-700,000t to be bought.
Awards for east coast ports are in the range $408-409/t cfr for fast ports. Freight for panamax cargoes is $17-19/t, therefore, traders need prices below $490/t fob to cover other costs and make a profit.
At present, offers from Chinese suppliers are around $390/t fob against bids at $380-385/t. Dreymoor is reported to have purchased some quantities last week at $383-388/t fob, but offers at that level are scarce this week. The domestic market is weak and it is expected that Chinese suppliers will eventually lower prices for export to sell to traders for India, lacking any other option.
granular ureaTrammo and Ameropa have bought 25,000t each of Fudao granular urea at around $435/t fob for August loading. Trammo is checking freight for the US Gulf. Simplot has bought 25,000t of Fudao granular urea for early-August shipment to Portland, US west coast. Ameropa is reported to have sold the cargo.
Three traders have bought cargoes of granular urea from northern China at prices in the range $414-425/t fob for shipment to Latin America.
urea exportsUrea exports were 91,000t in June, taking January-June exports to 311,000t. This is 54% lower than in the first half of 2011, when China exported 680,000t of urea.
thailandGranular urea prices are in the range $435-450/t cfr at present, but are set to move higher in August when the impact of increased fob levels in the Middle East is felt. The market is starved of spot tonnage and supply is tightening.
south koreaSFC tendered on 24 July for 5,000t of prilled urea for August shipment. It is understood to have bought the cargo from a trader in the low-$400s/t cfr. Freight from China is $15-16/t. Dongbu tendered on the same day for 3-5,000t of granular urea. Lowest offers were reported around $430/t cfr.
indonesia Pusri Holding closed a sales tender on 24 July, for 60,000t of granular urea for August shipment from Bontang and 10,000t of prilled urea for August shipment from Lhokseumawe.
It sold 30,000t of granular urea to Trada at $447/t fob in the first round, having set the reserve price at $425/t fob. CHS Europe bought the second 30,000t at $449.25/t fob. Brio bought 10,000t of PIM urea at $495/t fob. PIM urea is low-biuret and commands a premium in the Philippines.
Pusri is expected to issue a new tender for 60-90,000t of granular urea in the coming week for end-August/September shipment.
sri Lanka - moa urea tender 24 July - 12,000t in bags
supplier Origin cfr 180d cfr 270d
Agri-comms China/M East 444.81 448.67
Blue Deebaj China/CIS/Iran 461.44 468.18
Valency Uzbek 464.74 469.48
Wilson China 465.00 470.00
Dragon China 467.50 474.60
ETA China 475.47 479.47
Swiss Iran/China/Indo 476.50 484.30
Ameropa Viet/China/ME 482.00 487.00
Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 7 of 10
Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-30 | Thursday 26 July 2012
americas
us Granular prices have eased a little this week, prompt/early-August barges trading at $460-463/st fob Nola at the start of the week, but few buyers interested above $450/st by presstime. Prices are equivalent to about $490/t cfr and the US remains a premium market for offshore suppliers.
Traders are offering barges for spring 2013 delivery at $475-480/st fob Nola, basis 25% payment upfront and the balance in March.
The main debate in the market is whether the increasing number of urea cargoes booked for the US pre-river close will start to pressurize prices. Another 135,000t were added to the list from Indonesia, Egypt, China and Abu Dhabi this week taking the tonnage of granular urea booked from offshore over 1.2m for Q3 arrival (see below for details). Some of the cargoes may move to Eastern Canada.
In previous years this would have already had an adverse effect on prices. However, the outlook for spring 2013 has changed completely over the past two months and in now very bullish. Urea prices have firmed since June, but they have by no means mirrored the increase in the corn price.
US agronomists are forecasting an increased corn acreage in 2013 due to the hot dry weather that has cut yield forecasts for the 2012 crop. Some are even saying that the US will plant over 100m acres, compared to the 96m this year. The upshot is that the US will again need a huge import volume of urea.
us imports 40% ahead of 2011The number of vessels scheduled to arrive prior to river close has expanded considerably. Including vessels for the
east and west coasts, we estimate that about 1.2m tonnes of granular urea have been booked for the US for July-September arrival. This figure excludes urea moving across the border from Canada and prilled urea imports.
In the same period of 2011, offshore imports were about 890,000t excluding prills, implying an increase of close to 40% for Q3 2012.
The tentative line up of vessels is as follows:
July arrival - 135,000mt
▪ Eurochem 10,000t part cargo
▪ Koch/Oman 30,000t
▪ PCS/Trinidad 25,000t
▪ Gavilon/Kuwait 40,000t - end July
august arrival - 490,000mt
▪ Sabic 60,000t Saudi Arabia
▪ Yara 50,000t Qatar
▪ CHS 45,000t Kuwait/Bahrain (for Galveston)
▪ Toepfer/Interoceanic 45,000t Oman
▪ Koch 33,000t Oman
▪ CHS 25,000t UAE (m/v Happy Venture)
▪ CHS 32,000t Egypt
▪ Eurochem 2 x 25,000t Russia
▪ Trammo 25,000t Egypt (east coast)
▪ Gavilon 30,000t Indonesia (west coast)
▪ Gavilon 45,000t Bahrain
▪ Trinidad 25,000t
▪ Simplot 25,000t China (west coast)
september arrival - 630,000mt
▪ Gavilon 25,000t Egypt
▪ CHS 45,000t Oman
▪ Sabic 60,000t Saudi Arabia
▪ Yara 2 x 50,000t Qatar
▪ CHS 45,000t Kuwait
▪ Gavilon 45,000t Bahrain
▪ Gavilon 30,000t Kuwait
▪ Eurochem 2 x 25,000t Russia
▪ Trammo Egypt 2 x 25,000t
▪ Toepfer 45,000t Oman
▪ CHS 30,000t Indonesia
▪ Trammo 30,000t Indonesia
▪ Trammo 25,000 China (Fudao)
▪ Trammo 25,000t UAE
▪ Trinidad 25,000t
VenezuelaFertinitro is reported to have one granular urea plant down for July and August.
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
26 Apr 10 May 24 May 7 Jun 21 Jun 5 Jul 19 Jul
CME Corn Urea fob Nola UAN 32 fob Nola
us cOrN V urea/uaN ($/t)
Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Page 8 of 10
Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-30 | Thursday 26 July 2012
mexico/central americaThe buying pool purchased 47,000t of granular urea from Keytrade under its 19 July inquiry at $440/t cfr for August shipment to west coast Mexico. Keytrade will ship from China.
Helm has fixed a tbn at around $25/t to load 25,000t of granular urea in Yantai, China, 20-27 July for Topolobampo, Mexico.
Under its 20 July tenders, Incofe bought:
▪ 15,000t of urea and 10,000t of AN from Uralchem for shipment to Pto Cortes, Honduras, and Pto Limon, Costa Rica;
▪ A 45,000t combination cargo comprising 10,000t of urea from Trammo, 25,000t of AN from Helm and 10,000t of AN from Dreymoor for shipment to Caldera, Costa Rica, Corinto, Nicaragua, and Pto Quetzal, Guatemala. The AN will load in Riga and the urea in Kotka, sold at $380/t fob.
▪ Fertland has booked 2 x 40,000t of Iranian granular urea at a price in the $440s/t cfr for shipment to four ports - one west coast Mexico, Corinto, Nicaragua, Caldera, Costa Rica and Buenaventura, Colombia.
Fertica El Salvador has bought 15,000t of prilled urea and 10,000t of AN from Keytrade for delivery to Acajutla and Puntarenas. Prices are reported at $420/t cfr for the urea and $320/t cfr for the AN. Freight from the Baltic is put at $45-48/t.
Helm took last week’s tender by Fertica Honduras for 15,000t of urea and 15,000t of AN for August shipment to Pto Cortes.
peruAbocol is expected in the market shortly for 25,000t of prilled urea for August shipment to three ports.
Brazil Buyers are actively seeking prilled urea for August shipment. Prices have moved up slightly. Late last week,
Russian suppliers sold at $405-410/t cfr, this week a major buyer paid in the range $410-415/t cfr Vitoria for 25,000t.
Up to 10 suppliers are offering urea at present, mostly in the range $415-425/t cfr, but buyers have so far avoided paying up. NF will load 25,000t under a formula price in August and Eurochem 20,000t.
Granular urea offers have moved up to $460/t cfr Rio Grande. With the US taking any spot granular available, there are no new offers in the market.
argentinaBids for granular urea have moved up to $460/t cfr.
ammONium Nitrates/suLpHate
Black seaEurochem has allocated most of its August AN production to the domestic market; it will deliver 80,000t within Russia during the month. A further 7,000t will move to Ukraine by rail. Besides this, it will load 15,000t for Brazil in combination with 20,000t of prilled urea, priced under a formula.
NF has sold 25,000t of AN to a buyer in southern Turkey at $265/t fob for August shipment.
central americaIncofe has bought 10,000t of AN, to be shipped with 15,000t of urea, from Uralchem for Pto Cortes, Honduras, and Pto Limon, Costa Rica.
It also bought 25,000t of AN from Helm and 10,000t of AN from Dreymoor for shipment to Caldera, Costa Rica, Corinto, Nicaragua, and Pto Quetzal, Guatemala. The AN will load in Riga sold at $275-280/t fob. It will be shipped in a 45,000t combination cargo with 10,000t of urea from Trammo, loading in Kotka.
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Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-30 | Thursday 26 July 2012
BrazilThe market is calm and most new business involves Russian producers shipping AN under price formulae. Offers for August shipment are in the range $300-310/t cfr, reflecting $260-270/t fob Baltic/Black Sea port.
Uralchem has fixed a tbn at $35.50/t to load 27,000t of AN in Riga in August for two ports Brazil.
Northwest europeThe Euros 8/t price increase for CAN announced by Yara last week has put a floor under the market and seems to have consolidated the official price of Euros 250-252/t cif inland issued over a month ago.
There is less pressure from nearby imports as both the Kedzierzyn and Duslo Sala plants are down for maintenance and only expected to restart production in August. Small quantities of Polish CAN have been offered at Euros 248-250/t cpt Polish/German border.
Traders have imported 55-60,000t of Spanish CAN to Germany/Benelux markets over the past two months, with the breakdown roughly as follows:
Helm 19,000t Witt 25-30,000t Agrium 5-10,000t
Importers of Spanish CAN struggled at beginning to sell their cargoes. However, traders have managed to sell off the bulk of their tonnage between Euros 245-247 with last small sales at Euros 248-250/t cfr seaport. Fertiberia is understood to be interested to make further sales for export. Yara’s Tertre, Belgium, plant restarted operations early this week.
uaN sOLutiONs
usSales of UAN 32 have taken place at the equivalent of $320/st fob Nola for August-September delivery. Asking prices have moved up to around $325/st equivalent. Demand remains robust for UAN 32. Most of the ammonia available for fall application has been sold and there a risk aversion among some dealers to stockpiling urea, which suffers most from price volatility.
Several import cargoes were booked at the Southwest Fertilizers meeting and more since. Gavilon is reported to have purchased five cargoes. Prices have moved up to $345-350/t cfr, with reports of sales as high as $355/t
cfr. Eurochem is asking $355/t cfr for UAN for September loading.
Vessels booked for the US total about 300,000t as follows:
▪ Eurochem 3 x 25-30,000t Russia (Corpus Christi, USEC and USEC/Canada) for August-September arrival
▪ Helm 25,000t Egypt, August
▪ Helm 50,000t Trinidad, August
▪ Helm 25,000t Russia August shipment
▪ Agronova – 20-25,000t US east coast, August arrival
▪ Interagro/Trader 25,000t Romania August arrival
▪ Interagro/Trader 30,000t Romania August/September arrival
▪ Interagro/Trader 25,000t Romania September arrival
canadaImporters have stepped into the market and have booked UAN for August shipment to the east coast/Great Lakes. CFQ is reported to have purchased more than one cargo at prices in the $350s/t cfr.
trinidadThe closure of a gas production platform for 20 days from the start of September will reduce gas supply to the MHTL plant by around 20%. The company will lose some UAN 32 production as a result. Depending on the duration of the cutback and the extent to which production of methanol is reduced, the production loss may amount to about 10%. MHTL produces about 4,300t/day of UAN 32 at capacity.
FranceDemand is light, but some purchasing is continuing. Large importers have paid Euros 263/t fca Rouen for UAN 32 for September and up to Euros 268/t for La Pallice.
French prices are equivalent to the $304/t fob last paid in Egypt, but are again lagging the US, where traders are paying the equivalent of $315-320/t fob Egypt.
Black seaEurochem has sold three cargoes of UAN 32 for August shipment at prices netting back above $300/t fob Novorossisk. All three are going to the US or Canada.
▪ 30,000t at $338/t cif to the US east coast
▪ 30,000t at $340/t cif to the US east coast
▪ 25-30,000t to Canada or the US east coast, for shipment from Klaipeda or Novo, based on a price of $308/t fob
Baltic
Grodno Azot held a sales tender on 24 July for up to 50,000t of UAN 32 for September shipment. It sold 25,000t to a trader at $315/t fob Klaipeda.
Fertilizer
Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-30 | Thursday 26 July 2012
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romaniaInteragro has sold two cargoes of 25,000t and 30,000t of UAN 32 to traders for August shipment to the US at prices in the range $310-315/t fob Constantza and a third 25-30,000t lot for first half September loading at $315-320/t fob.
It is making UAN at its Slobozia plant and is considering restarting one other unit if it continues to make prilled urea as well at the site.
argentinaA trader is checking freight for 20,000t of UAN 32 to load in Sillamae 18-25 August for Necochea and one upriver port. Nidera and Bunge are both in the market for UAN cargoes for August shipment. Bunge is rumoured to have bought a cargo at $358/t cfr.
egyptAbu Qir will hold another sales tender for UAN 32 on 31 July. It is inviting bids for 25,000t for 4-6 August loading.
FertiLiZer deriVatiVes
Fis cash settled swaps – 26 July 2012
month Bid Offer mid Basis
urea (prill) fob yuzhny (mt)
Aug 390 398 394 5 mt
Sep 390 398 394 5 mt
Q4 375 395 385 5 mt
urea (gran) fob barge NOLa (s ton)
Aug 447 458 453 3 st
Sep 442 455 449 1.5 st
Q4 435 450 443 1.5 st
Urea (gran) fob Egypt (mt)
Aug 455 470 463 5 mt
Sep 445 470 458 5 mt
Q4 440 465 453 5 mt
For further swaps information contact:
Ron Foxon & Alexey Paliy,
FIS Ltd - Office : +44 207 090 1122 or
Cell: +44 7738726557 [email protected]
