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    New Madrid and Wabash Valley SeismicStudy: Assessing the Impacts on Natural Gas

    Transmission Pipelines and DownstreamMarkets by Using NGFast

    Presented by:

    Edgar Portante, Steve Folga, Shabbir Shamsuddin, Michael McLamore,Leah Talaber, Vic Hammond, Jim Kavicky, and Brian Craig

    Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL USA

    February 24, 2009

    Prepared for:

    FEMA Region V New Madrid Seismic ZonePlanning Workshop

    Indianapolis, IN

    Work sponsored by FEMA Region VDisaster Operations Division, Chicago, IL USA

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    Order of Presentation

    Brief Description of NGFast Simulation Model

    Objectives of the New Madrid Natural Gas Pipeline Study

    Scenarios Covered by the Study

    Major Assumptions and Methodology Overview of the U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline System

    Key Findings New Madrid and Wabash Events

    Summary of Damages and Estimated Restoration Time

    Seismic Performance of Underground Storage Facilities

    Conclusions Natural Gas Pipeline Study

    Conclusions New Madrid Electric Transmission Line Study

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    NGFast: Model for Natural Gas Pipeline Breaksand Downstream Impacts Salient Features

    Linear, steady-state model provides aquick estimate of impacts on thedownstream market of:

    single or multiple pipeline breaks

    flow reduction problems

    This national model includes:

    ~ 80 interstate and other pipelines

    ~ 1,800 local distribution companies (LDCs)

    ~ 800 state border points

    Compensated/uncompensated modesaccount for effects of mitigating measuressuch as:

    underground storage (UGS)

    liquefied natural gas (LNG)

    production facilities

    spare pipeline capacity

    Graphical user interface (GUI) navigationuses point-and-click features, is super

    fast, and is easy to use

    Graphical and tabular HTML formatted outputs

    Applications

    DOE exercise analysis

    hurricane analysis

    seismic analysis

    others as appropriate

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    NGFast Analysis Output

    For a postulated flow disruption in a specific border point(s)and month of the year, NGFast assesses impacts, including:

    Downstream states affected

    LDCs affected per state

    Load shed per customer class per LDC

    Number of customers per class type

    MW of electric power plants affected

    Detailed per state pre- and post-disruption load and flow levels

    Options on remedial actions to minimize

    overall impact

    NGFast ModelVersion 5.01

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    Primary Objectives of the Current Seismic Study

    Assessment of impact on natural gasinterstate transmission pipelines

    Identification of specific pipelines

    affected

    Identification of probable location ofpipeline breaks

    Assessment of downstream impactsin terms of population and businesscustomers affected

    Estimate of restoration time from theperspective of industry experts

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    Key Assumptions Used for Impact Assessment

    Events occurred on Feb. 24at 2:00 a.m.

    A pipeline segment break triggeredby the earthquakes implies 100%

    flow reduction along the pipeline Transmission pipelines through the

    seismic zones are generally ductile,made of steel, are arc welded, and

    are buried at an average of 4 to 6 ftbelow ground surface.

    Order of load shedding:

    gas-fired power plants

    industrial

    commercial

    residential

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    Methodology, Models, and Sources of Data

    Used HAZUS MH-MR3 for damage functions andfragility curves

    Used Argonnes NGFast model for pipelinebreak simulation and assessment ofdownstream impacts

    Used industry-based experience for estimatingrestoration time

    Methodology and Models

    Data Sources and Graphics

    For ground motion, used FEMA-provided shake maps(PGA, PGV, liquefaction)

    For NGFast and pipe characterization, used:

    EIA 176

    EIA state border files

    FERC 567

    Platts PowerMap

    DOTs National Pipeline Mapping System

    ESRI Arc Map

    Industry experts

    Natural Gas Storage Assessment and Restoration:

    used inputs from industry subject-matter experts

    NGFast: rapid assessment of impacts ofnatural gas pipeline breaks at U.S. bordersand import points

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    Overview of U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline System

    The U.S. natural gas system is a complex network of interconnectedhigh-volume, high-pressure pipelines

    .

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    Occurring simultaneously

    Emergency remedial actions implemented

    Summary of Key Findings

    Scenario 3: Combined New Madrid and WabashValley Seismic Events

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    New Madrid and Wabash Valley: Key Finding 1Ten interstate pipelines are at high risk for multiple damage from

    New Madrid and Wabash Valley earthquakes

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    New Madrid and Wabash Events EmergencyRemediation Measures before Permanent Restoration

    Available Emergency Mitigation Measures

    selectively shed interruptible loads (e.g., power plants, industrial loads)

    increase withdrawal from UGS

    increase flow from spare capacity from interconnected but unaffected pipelines

    withdraw LNG from storage

    increase production from nearby fields

    Other Possible Sources of Gas

    Rocky Mountains

    Canada

    Gulf of Mexico via other unaffected pipelines

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    New Madrid and Wabash Valley Events DownstreamImpacts with Emergency Remedial Actions: Key Finding 3

    All FEMA Region V states, except Minnesota, would experience substantialdelivery reduction, ranging from 2% to 27%

    Downstream Impacts with Emergency Remedial

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    Downstream Impacts with Emergency RemedialMeasures: Key Finding 4

    Implementation of emergency remedial measures could limit the number of people affected to about60,000100,000 (or 20,00033,000 households) across several states; a large number of electric,industrial, and commercial customers (50,000140,000) would also be shed

    40

    Type Low High

    Resid 15 15

    Comm 6,415 32,076

    Indust 4,860 14,580

    Elect 16 49Total 11,307 46,720

    Illinois

    People Affected:

    2,195

    Type Low High

    Resid 896 896

    Comm 7,028 35,141

    Indust 272 817

    Elect - -Total 8,197 36,854

    Kentucky

    People Affected:

    75,371

    Type Low High

    Resid 31,145 31,145Comm 11,593 57,964Indust 845 2,535Elect 1 2Total 43,583 91,646

    M

    issouri

    People Affected:

    2,472

    Type Low High

    Resid 985 985

    Comm 1,113 5,565

    Indust 221 664

    Elect 4 13Total 2,324 7,227

    Indiana

    People Affected:

    Residential Sector

    Not Affected

    -

    Type Low High

    Resid - -Comm 2,560 12,801

    Indust 458 1,375

    Elect 9 27

    Total 3,028 14,203

    Ohio

    People Affected:

    -

    Type Low HighResid - -Comm - -Indust - -Elect 2 5Total 2 5

    Wisconsin

    People Affected:

    -

    Type Low High

    Resid - -Comm - -Indust 4 11Elect 8 23Total 11 34

    Michigan

    People Affected:

    -

    Type Low High

    Resid - -

    Comm 2 11

    Indust 29 87

    Elect 0 1Total 32 99

    T

    ennessee

    People Affected:

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    New Madrid and Wabash Valley Downstream Impacts withEmergency Remedial Measures: Key Finding 5

    In terms of amount of natural gas-fired power plants capacity affected due togas curtailment, the amount of megawatts of power at risk per state is low

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    Summary of Damages in New Madrid Area

    A. Pipeline Damage Due to PGV and Estimated Restoration Time

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    Summary of Compressor Damages in New Madrid

    B. Compressor Station Damage and Restoration

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    Wabash Valley Area Summary of UndergroundStorage and Pipeline Damages

    A. Underground Storage at Risk Due to PGA and Estimated Restoration Time

    B. Pipeline Damage Due to PGV, PGA, and Liquefaction and EstimatedRestoration Time

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    Seismic Performance of Underground Storage Facilities

    In general, experts agree that UGS within 100 miles of the quakes epicenter may beat risk of some damage, depending on the intensity of the quake and the directionof the seismic wave

    In general, UGS fields are quite resilient against seismic disturbance unless the

    structure is located at the fault line

    According to seismologists, only the top 50 ft of soil is subject to liquefaction,meaning that little damage is expected to occur to subsurface UGS fields becausethe typical depth of sandstone and rock is 1,0002,000 ft

    Most underground damage involves the vertical surface-to-underground cavernpipeline at a point where the pipeline meets the cap rock of the undergroundstructure

    Other damage may involve the fracture of the cap rock that lines the storage core of

    the underground structure; the fracture may result in gas leaking or migrating tothe surface

    Most UGS is located near the Wabash Valley, except for two small facilities whosesurface structures may be at risk due to PGA; the other UGSs are assumed to befunctional

    Natural Gas Study: Conclusions and Summary

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    Natural Gas Study: Conclusions and Summaryof Key Findings

    Key Finding 1: Ten interstate pipelines would be at risk of damage due to the events

    Key Finding 2: All ten pipelines would experience at least one break and several leaksdue to PGA, PGV, and liquefaction

    Key Finding 3: Even with implementation of emergency remedial measures, all FEMA Region Vstates (except Minnesota) and other nearby states would experience a substantial reduction

    in delivery, ranging from 2% to 27%Indiana ~ 18% Michigan ~ 18% Illinois ~13%Ohio ~12% Wisconsin ~2%

    Key Finding 4: Even with emergency remedial actions, the seismic events would impact:

    20,00030,000 households (or 60,000100,000 people) 50,000140,000 Industrial and commercial customers or units

    Key Finding 5: A well-orchestrated implementation of remediation measures would limitimpact on natural gas-fired power to insignificant levels (less than 2% of installed capacity)

    Key Finding 6: In general, all underground storage facilities (except for 2) would not experience

    any serious damage so as to make them dysfunctional

    Key Finding 7: Restoring damaged pipelines to full functionality would take about 13 monthsdepending on how the pipeline companies subdivide and phase the work, the availability ofcrews, conditions of access roads, and resolved target completion times; restoration forresidential and industrial customers would take 24 and 48 weeks, respectively

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    Conclusions and Key Findings on Electric Transmission Study

    The New Madrid seismic event has a far more devastating potential impact thanthe Wabash Valley on the basis of all impact metrics used in the study

    The combined New Madrid and Wabash events could affect as many as 23 millionpeople mostly in areas surrounding the epicenter of the earthquakes; blackoutsmainly would be due to equipment failures and ensuing line de-energization

    The combined events could put about 190 high-voltage towers at risk for possiblephysical damage; most towers are located along or near the New Madrid fault lines

    The events could potentially de-energize 52 high-voltage transmission lines in boththe New Madrid and the Wabash areas

    The possible line failures would not cause downstream electric supply shortfalls inany of the Region V states because of high reserves during February anda reduction in the possibility of transient stability problems

    Towers can be procured fairly quickly because there are many approved localsuppliers; a new tower could be ordered and erected in about 14 months

    The equipment with the longest lead time is the transformer (812 months), but

    details of substation damages are beyond the scope of this presentation

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    Contact Information

    Edgar C. Portante

    Argonne National Laboratory

    E-mail: [email protected]

    Phone: 630-252-7965

    Stephen M. FolgaArgonne National Laboratory

    E-mail: [email protected]

    Phone: 630-252-3728

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

John Power, Argonne

John Power, Argonne

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