Argentina – Inflación implícita en los agregados macroeconómicos (PIB)

by Eduardo Petazze5 de abril de 2015

El siguiente cuadro, incluyendo algunas estimaciones y proyecciones, muestra la evolución de la inflación implícita en los datos del Producto Interno Bruto de Argentina, publicados por el INDEC.

En particular se analiza la evolución de los precios (deflactor) implícito en el Gasto de Consumo de los Hogares (Personal Consumption Expenditure), correspondiente a los datos originales publicados, así como para la estimacion de las series de datos corregidas por efectos estacionales y para la respectiva curva de tendencia.

En el último cuatrimestre del 2014 la inflación que afecto al consumo de los hogares argentinos fue del 27.3% respecto de igual trimestre del año anterior, una tasa anualizada del 24.0% cuando la comparacion se realiza con datos desestacionalizados respecto del 3er. trimestre de 2014.

Para el 2015 se estima una inflación decreciente en un contexto de relativo estancamiento económico.

Referencias:Argentina - State Street PriceStats IndexArgentina – Evolución y Perspectivas del Producto Interno Bruto

Argentina - Personal Consumption Expenditures (in millions of dollars) of GDP and the Implicit InflationNot seasonally adjusted (as reported) Seasonally adjusted Trend

Million pesos Million pesos Million pesosAt 2004 prices At 2004 prices

Value YoY (own esti Value (own est) Value YoY

2003Q1 269,589.3 313,308.9 86.0 21.3% 279,006.0 311,246.5 89.6 11.2% 278,086.9 313,224.6 88.8 16.1%2003Q2 292,858.9 323,727.9 90.5 14.6% 291,344.8 320,548.8 90.9 5.7% 292,271.8 319,107.3 91.6 15.1%2003Q3 311,471.6 329,725.5 94.5 8.9% 303,177.7 326,896.0 92.7 8.4% 305,754.5 325,874.7 93.8 12.9%2003Q4 321,344.4 325,122.1 98.8 10.5% 321,735.8 333,193.1 96.6 17.5% 319,150.9 333,677.9 95.6 10.3%2004Q1 332,452.5 349,853.3 95.0 10.4% 336,030.0 342,061.1 348,127.2 96.5 -0.2% 330,787.1 347,196.6 342,054.1 96.7 8.9%2004Q2 349,265.2 350,585.3 99.6 10.1% 347,393.7 349,451.3 348,591.0 99.7 13.6% 345,891.7 351,048.9 349,423.1 99.0 8.1%2004Q3 364,929.2 359,019.6 101.6 7.6% 359,962.5 357,417.0 354,980.8 101.4 7.2% 361,291.4 355,688.1 357,416.9 101.1 7.7%2004Q4 368,422.7 355,611.4 103.6 4.8% 371,683.5 366,140.3 363,370.6 102.3 3.5% 377,099.4 362,650.3 366,175.5 103.0 7.7%2005Q1 391,357.7 372,574.9 105.0 10.5% 390,455.8 375,658.8 371,232.3 105.2 11.8% 393,915.5 372,042.2 375,610.1 104.9 8.4%2005Q2 414,704.3 382,709.9 108.4 8.8% 410,378.0 382,923.6 382,667.8 107.2 8.1% 412,919.7 382,452.2 382,912.1 107.8 8.9%2005Q3 438,795.4 398,198.7 110.2 8.4% 433,456.5 391,141.5 393,147.4 110.3 11.7% 433,358.0 391,846.2 391,178.1 110.8 9.6%2005Q4 449,922.8 396,226.7 113.6 9.6% 460,489.8 399,986.3 402,662.7 114.4 15.8% 454,587.0 399,560.4 400,009.9 113.6 10.4%2006Q1 480,250.1 404,037.7 118.9 13.2% 483,351.7 405,685.4 408,260.4 118.4 14.9% 476,354.4 406,430.8 405,618.8 117.4 12.0%2006Q2 509,327.7 412,119.0 123.6 14.1% 508,661.2 413,227.1 415,833.6 122.3 14.0% 500,646.5 413,454.2 413,149.5 121.2 12.4%2006Q3 536,143.3 428,386.3 125.2 13.6% 525,745.7 421,583.5 419,751.7 125.3 9.9% 528,676.6 420,863.2 421,604.2 125.4 13.2%2006Q4 540,191.3 427,130.4 126.5 11.4% 548,153.8 431,177.4 427,827.8 128.1 9.5% 560,234.9 428,814.0 431,300.9 129.9 14.3%2007Q1 580,767.1 434,987.5 133.5 12.3% 587,821.0 443,522.9 441,728.6 133.1 16.4% 593,189.3 438,112.9 443,490.4 133.8 13.9%2007Q2 618,325.9 441,227.8 140.1 13.4% 613,834.9 452,029.6 441,458.3 139.0 19.2% 629,491.2 449,733.8 452,030.9 139.3 14.9%2007Q3 690,916.6 473,676.5 145.9 16.5% 675,546.0 460,908.8 463,989.0 145.6 20.2% 669,069.0 462,656.4 460,975.7 145.1 15.7%2007Q4 710,897.9 474,587.6 149.8 18.4% 723,705.6 468,018.0 477,303.4 151.6 17.6% 709,158.1 474,346.3 467,982.4 151.5 16.7%2008Q1 752,212.4 461,612.6 163.0 22.0% 763,234.4 472,123.8 471,327.1 161.9 30.1% 770,324.6 482,326.3 472,297.4 163.1 21.9%2008Q2 825,984.9 489,758.9 168.7 20.3% 823,254.1 477,874.9 490,110.7 168.0 15.8% 808,152.5 485,403.7 477,852.5 169.1 21.4%2008Q3 861,965.5 491,883.4 175.2 20.1% 846,030.6 482,762.9 483,332.2 175.0 17.9% 844,073.8 484,605.8 482,669.5 174.9 20.5%2008Q4 861,139.4 476,635.5 180.7 20.6% 868,783.0 487,128.9 475,120.5 182.9 19.1% 878,751.2 483,188.0 487,070.9 180.4 19.1%2009Q1 872,377.9 477,051.7 182.9 12.2% 881,474.0 487,113.9 486,772.3 181.1 -3.8% 871,353.0 484,547.1 486,917.8 179.0 9.7%2009Q2 915,455.3 490,898.7 186.5 10.6% 904,623.4 492,700.5 487,018.4 185.7 10.7% 910,294.3 490,284.0 492,573.6 184.8 9.3%2009Q3 955,661.8 501,974.5 190.4 8.6% 939,519.5 498,795.2 495,830.8 189.5 8.3% 953,087.0 499,157.2 498,881.0 191.0 9.2%2009Q4 991,399.0 515,930.3 192.2 6.4% 1,009,277.2 507,245.6 516,233.7 195.5 13.3% 1,000,159.8 509,339.8 507,482.8 197.1 9.2%2010Q1 1,070,054.2 510,113.3 209.8 14.7% 1,075,295.5 519,136.4 520,337.7 206.7 24.8% 1,079,875.2 520,095.5 519,078.8 208.0 16.3%2010Q2 1,153,432.8 531,404.0 217.1 16.4% 1,145,877.1 530,283.5 532,809.7 215.1 17.3% 1,144,615.8 531,399.7 530,274.6 215.9 16.8%2010Q3 1,248,100.4 548,581.1 227.5 19.5% 1,232,870.2 542,238.7 543,670.6 226.8 23.6% 1,215,098.6 543,374.0 542,277.3 224.1 17.3%2010Q4 1,257,725.6 556,291.9 226.1 17.7% 1,275,270.2 554,731.7 549,572.2 232.0 9.6% 1,289,723.4 556,449.1 554,759.6 232.5 18.0%2011Q1 1,368,977.8 564,178.8 242.6 15.7% 1,375,488.3 576,321.9 573,045.5 240.0 14.5% 1,377,910.6 570,587.6 576,465.6 239.0 14.9%2011Q2 1,465,261.2 583,100.1 251.3 15.8% 1,462,061.7 586,931.1 586,257.3 249.4 16.5% 1,455,605.6 584,850.1 586,940.1 248.0 14.9%2011Q3 1,545,011.2 602,102.2 256.6 12.8% 1,525,356.4 596,563.9 596,714.2 255.6 10.4% 1,533,624.8 596,961.1 596,510.4 257.1 14.7%2011Q4 1,605,988.4 616,785.4 260.4 15.2% 1,622,332.2 606,349.6 610,149.4 265.9 17.1% 1,618,097.5 605,184.9 606,250.4 266.9 14.8%2012Q1 1,694,879.1 602,083.8 281.5 16.0% 1,692,177.4 606,712.5 609,948.8 277.4 18.5% 1,692,593.6 610,133.3 606,749.7 279.0 16.7%2012Q2 1,766,696.6 607,264.7 290.9 15.8% 1,770,035.6 614,432.5 612,293.7 289.1 17.9% 1,780,583.6 614,657.0 614,390.8 289.8 16.9%2012Q3 1,880,691.7 625,105.9 300.9 17.2% 1,865,579.6 621,254.8 618,660.5 301.6 18.4% 1,873,116.8 621,145.8 621,232.0 301.5 17.3%2012Q4 1,974,771.7 634,572.2 311.2 19.5% 1,989,246.5 626,626.8 628,123.6 316.7 21.7% 1,970,745.1 629,556.4 626,654.1 314.5 17.8%2013Q1 2,081,385.4 632,797.3 328.9 16.8% 2,078,375.0 638,837.5 639,762.9 324.9 10.7% 2,061,017.8 637,669.7 639,046.2 322.5 15.6%2013Q2 2,169,220.2 638,404.2 339.8 16.8% 2,172,249.8 642,638.5 643,214.9 337.7 16.8% 2,179,098.8 643,230.8 642,644.7 339.1 17.0%2013Q3 2,335,208.9 656,310.1 355.8 18.3% 2,314,854.8 646,348.9 647,559.8 357.5 25.5% 2,305,712.9 645,328.0 646,264.8 356.8 18.3%2013Q4 2,393,817.6 648,810.2 369.0 18.6% 2,414,152.5 648,497.0 645,784.2 373.8 19.6% 2,433,802.6 644,783.6 648,366.1 375.4 19.4%2014Q1 2,594,363.6 631,280.0 411.0 24.9% 2,594,950.0 640,954.7 639,288.7 405.9 39.0% 2,612,114.1 642,923.8 641,028.9 407.5 26.3%2014Q2 2,774,888.4 638,280.6 434.7 27.9% 2,771,317.3 641,064.4 641,687.5 431.9 28.2% 2,752,210.6 641,130.5 641,007.3 429.4 26.6%2014Q3 2,924,163.7 652,867.9 447.9 25.9% 2,892,450.8 640,920.5 642,023.9 450.5 18.4% 2,896,259.9 640,307.1 640,855.4 451.9 26.7%2014Q4 3,009,054.4 640,837.5 469.6 27.3% 3,043,751.9 640,326.3 640,265.8 475.4 24.0% 3,041,885.4 641,454.9 640,374.4 475.0 26.5%2015Q1 3,161,583.7 633,887.0 498.8 21.4% 3,170,117.4 642,547.9 493.4 16.0% 3,173,448.8 641,970.1 494.3 21.3%2015Q2 3,315,133.7 638,705.9 519.0 19.4% 3,304,290.8 641,858.1 514.8 18.5% 3,314,520.1 641,960.8 516.3 20.3%2015Q3 3,490,676.2 652,409.4 535.0 19.5% 3,457,533.4 641,440.1 539.0 20.2% 3,454,434.7 641,890.2 538.2 19.1%2015Q4 3,570,071.1 642,841.6 555.4 18.3% 3,605,522.9 641,997.7 561.6 17.8% 3,595,060.9 642,022.8 560.0 17.9%The projection for 2015 is a very preliminary estimateEstimate according to GDP data 1993-basis, adjusted to the new GDP 2004-basis.

Price Index, 2004=100

Price Index, 2004=100

Price Index, 2004=100

At current prices

At 2004 prices

Current prices (own

est)

Current prices (own

est)(as

reported)QoQ at

annual rate(as

reported)