Argentina – GDP 1Q2014

by Eduardo Petazze

Argentina's GDP fell in 1Q2014 by 0.21% Y/Y (-0.81% Q/Q) from a +1.38% growth Y/Y (-0.46% Q/Q) in 4Q2013

The INDEC of Argentina released GDP data for the 1Q2014 (pdf, 3 pages)Summary

Production approach (see Note)

Note: Real growth of Financial Services sector should be analyzed in more detail, under an economy with very high inflation rates.

Financial institutions and especially the insurance companies, held as investment and / or counterparties of technical reserves, securities whose valuation is made at closing prices of each period. The profits generated by such holding, of particular importance in an economy with high inflation rates, is an operating income and not being discriminated in the financial statements or information submitted for tax purposes or to control bodies, this is not a Value Added Gross. We understand that the INDEC, as the statistical services of other countries, do not make debugging entrepreneurs benefits of holding results that are incorporated in the operating results of companies.Because these benefits are not interest charged to end consumers or intermediate consumption, mechanisms to indirectly assign such interest does not solve the over estimation of GVA for the financial sector.

SA, (000) 2004 pesos 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4Private consumption 645,129,760 643,605,876 646,677,298 636,440,653 636,711,262 648,797,267 656,410,345 654,151,812Public consumption 92,320,658 93,699,757 95,929,063 95,902,456 94,708,688 97,072,995 99,400,135 100,348,149GFCF 180,137,315 180,847,297 183,210,427 184,382,715 183,771,501 183,791,566 185,526,920 187,341,335Exports 150,211,163 150,132,287 148,856,487 142,496,457 140,877,240 141,765,240 140,802,463 135,991,938Imports 187,216,434 190,131,558 187,435,941 182,490,234 180,330,738 183,825,427 184,618,633 182,490,138Residual and inventories change -14,713,148 -7,361,567 -14,295,656 -7,813,851 -13,894,588 -12,945,469 -15,041,178 -11,312,204

GDP 865,869,314 870,792,092 872,941,678 868,918,196 861,843,365 874,656,171 882,480,053 884,030,892Q/Q 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Private consumption 1.76% -0.24% 0.48% -1.58% 0.04% 1.90% 1.17% -0.34%Public consumption 2.38% 1.49% 2.38% -0.03% -1.24% 2.50% 2.40% 0.95%GFCF -0.49% 0.39% 1.31% 0.64% -0.33% 0.01% 0.94% 0.98%Exports 0.55% -0.05% -0.85% -4.27% -1.14% 0.63% -0.68% -3.42%Imports -0.07% 1.56% -1.42% -2.64% -1.18% 1.94% 0.43% -1.15%

GDP 1.00% 0.57% 0.25% -0.46% -0.81% 1.49% 0.89% 0.18%Last dataOwn estimate

NSA, (000) 2004 pesos 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4Private consumption 635,512,712 639,345,156 652,434,955 644,560,765 627,682,228 645,162,195 661,284,820 661,941,444Public consumption 84,503,168 92,982,413 96,441,169 103,925,184 87,363,520 96,141,930 99,594,523 108,429,994GFCF 167,141,635 177,942,317 190,756,996 192,736,807 170,311,946 181,027,305 193,403,925 195,688,146Exports 127,355,292 164,295,739 159,772,150 140,273,209 119,182,013 153,275,093 151,270,558 135,709,217Imports 173,736,674 185,090,304 199,183,214 189,263,975 167,063,875 178,932,801 196,158,081 189,110,179Inventories change -21,308,805 -353,802 -23,618,540 8,892,596 -14,833,654 2,514,327 3,659,510 9,336,546Discrepancia Estadística -1,029,371 -1,588,769 -4,171,609 -1,005,921 -5,892,771 -8,683,356 -31,849,458 -7,444,584

GDP 818,437,956 887,532,750 872,431,906 900,118,666 816,749,407 890,504,693 881,205,797 914,550,583Y/Y 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Private consumption 6.73% 5.22% 4.94% 0.39% -1.23% 0.91% 1.36% 2.70%Public consumption 3.82% 6.29% 7.14% 6.68% 3.38% 3.40% 3.27% 4.33%GFCF -2.65% 7.77% 4.85% 2.06% 1.90% 1.73% 1.39% 1.53%Exports -11.43% 4.47% -1.30% -7.75% -6.42% -6.71% -5.32% -3.25%Imports -0.43% 9.58% 1.65% -2.44% -3.84% -3.33% -1.52% -0.08%

GDP 1.48% 5.47% 3.44% 1.38% -0.21% 0.33% 1.01% 1.60%Last dataOwn estimate

NSA, (000) 2004 pesos 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1Agriculture 46,512,150 31,826,929 67,979,592 33,086,360 62,036,080 32,417,865 68,426,869 30,682,514Fishing 1,703,107 2,459,021 1,572,552 1,284,887 2,508,374 2,874,535 1,953,662 1,375,521Mining 25,109,030 25,388,782 24,954,024 24,360,953 24,798,483 24,408,315 24,964,736 24,571,940Manufacturing 172,241,852 176,692,797 176,476,692 159,630,516 173,255,539 178,750,065 177,835,923 158,428,554Electricity 11,248,395 11,975,983 11,487,169 11,535,311 11,612,061 12,477,478 12,040,095 11,759,403Construction 35,156,267 35,680,795 36,731,763 34,836,290 36,125,031 37,258,867 37,827,365 34,087,561Commerce 121,703,283 128,498,220 133,471,591 125,302,533 128,030,403 132,276,912 130,773,869 121,415,840Accomodation 19,003,962 20,139,618 20,583,440 21,233,351 19,752,267 20,899,982 21,971,372 21,466,948Transport and Communication 66,516,924 64,375,569 65,022,568 63,200,451 69,244,192 67,011,133 66,296,475 63,709,931Finance 34,187,310 35,660,864 38,203,014 39,530,926 41,888,329 42,837,638 44,471,249 46,044,097Real Estate 84,634,772 84,934,029 86,758,763 82,628,336 85,262,263 86,952,396 88,289,233 82,448,018Public administration 30,936,612 31,061,509 31,418,178 31,637,574 31,866,970 31,984,577 32,268,895 32,165,431Education 27,392,500 27,521,323 27,958,078 27,759,172 28,327,753 28,549,417 28,814,313 28,538,555Social services 22,140,100 20,745,277 19,544,198 20,719,404 22,850,086 21,426,695 20,119,862 21,246,614Other 27,083,358 28,629,236 27,612,679 27,332,567 28,250,662 29,553,923 28,084,287 27,313,601Households services 7,879,148 7,680,527 7,974,186 7,555,953 8,343,918 7,776,066 7,207,324 7,581,198

GVA 733,448,767 733,270,479 777,748,487 711,634,583 774,152,408 757,455,863 791,345,528 712,835,727Taxes on products 44,156,698 43,323,442 41,384,169 39,983,574 45,940,364 44,547,981 40,118,329 38,261,022Import tax 6,739,202 8,284,626 8,540,140 7,295,974 7,805,679 8,452,504 7,817,800 7,771,364VAT 57,151,279 58,535,422 60,152,479 59,523,825 59,634,298 61,975,558 60,837,008 57,881,293

GDP 841,495,946 843,413,969 887,825,276 818,437,956 887,532,750 872,431,906 900,118,666 816,749,407Y/Y 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1

Agriculture -25.11% 2.61% 6.65% 7.60% 33.38% 1.86% 0.66% -7.27%Fishing -17.70% 5.84% 8.38% -0.38% 47.28% 16.90% 24.24% 7.05%Mining 4.00% -4.26% -8.93% -2.38% -1.24% -3.86% 0.04% 0.87%Manufacturing -3.26% -3.57% -2.89% -1.78% 0.59% 1.16% 0.77% -0.75%Electricity 0.46% 1.90% 4.83% -0.78% 3.23% 4.19% 4.81% 1.94%Construction -2.87% -5.20% -5.40% -3.01% 2.76% 4.42% 2.98% -2.15%Commerce -1.67% -0.97% 1.03% 1.14% 5.20% 2.94% -2.02% -3.10%Accomodation 6.00% 4.69% 4.87% 1.34% 3.94% 3.78% 6.74% 1.10%Transport and Communication -0.39% 0.72% 1.95% 2.04% 4.10% 4.09% 1.96% 0.81%Finance 16.20% 14.30% 18.22% 19.46% 22.53% 20.13% 16.41% 16.48%Real Estate -0.30% 1.26% -1.53% -0.37% 0.74% 2.38% 1.76% -0.22%Public administration 4.55% 2.97% 3.26% 3.09% 3.01% 2.97% 2.71% 1.67%Education 4.78% 3.37% 3.85% 3.24% 3.41% 3.74% 3.06% 2.81%Social services 4.51% 3.67% 3.65% 3.39% 3.21% 3.28% 2.95% 2.54%Other 3.47% 3.90% 2.42% 4.02% 4.31% 3.23% 1.71% -0.07%Households services 6.54% 7.52% 13.44% 2.29% 5.90% 1.24% -9.62% 0.33%

GVA -1.82% 0.18% 0.98% 1.49% 5.55% 3.30% 1.75% 0.17%Taxes on products -2.06% -2.78% -2.72% -3.58% 4.04% 2.83% -3.06% -4.31%Import tax -13.25% -7.86% -1.84% 3.38% 15.82% 2.03% -8.46% 6.52%VAT 4.60% 3.64% 3.42% 4.77% 4.34% 5.88% 1.14% -2.76%

GDP -1.53% 0.17% 0.93% 1.48% 5.47% 3.44% 1.38% -0.21%Last data