Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas?

Karel DybaAmbassador of the Czech

Republic to the OECD

Presentation at the IEC Ostrava 2011 based on findings from the IEA

Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas?

130 pages

Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas?

„The Golden Age of Gas Scenario 2011 – 2035“ according to the IEA The Global Potencial of Unconventional

Gas Peculiarities of the Gas Market: the U.S.

vs. Europe Gas Prices on Regional Markets: the U.S.,

Europe and Japan Diversification of Sources and Security of

Gas Supply Golden Age of Gas is Comming…?

„The Golden Age of Gas Scenario2011 – 2035“ according to the IEA

Assumptions: - Implementation by China of an ambitious

policy for gas use - Lower growth of nuclear power

(Fukushima) - More use of natural gas in road transport - Ample availability of gas, much of it

unconventional gas, would not allow significant rise of gas prices

„The Golden Age of Gas Scenario2011 – 2035“ according to the IEA

Under these coditions: Global gas consumption in the year 2035

compared to the 2010 will rise by 50% (by 1,800 billion m3 more than at present)

The share of gas in the global energy mix will rise from the current 21% to 25% (in Europe over 30%)

An increase in production equivalent to about three times the current production of Russia will be required simply to meet the growth in gas demand in 2035, which is realistic

The Global Potencial of Unconventional Gas

All existing recoverable gas resources are estimated to 920 trillion m3 - about 300 times more than the current annual global consumption

The reason for doubling the estimated gas reserves is an unconventional gas

Regional distribution of unconventional gas sources (shale gas) is more even than in the case of conventional natural gas

Estimated Recoverable Shale Gas Resources

Peculiarities of the Gas Market: the U.S. vs. Europe

U.S. self-sufficient in gas supply due to the success of shale gas production (supply of shale, the existence of infrastructure, deregulation and technological advances in shale gas mining)

European countries do not have substantial reserves of neither conventional nor unconventional natural gas (imports required), unfinished infrastructure - pipelines, LNG terminals, deregulation slower than in the U.S., sometimes sharp public reservations about the technology involved in today's shale gas mining

Gas Prices on Regional Markets: the U.S., Europe and Japan

Diversification of Sources and Security of Gas Supply

Technological progress and deregulation leads to a diversification of sources. This may reduce the negotiating power of the dominant suppliers of natural gas to the European market and have a strong influence on the pricing mechanism in this market.

Diversification of resources improves the gas supply security.

Golden Age of Gas is Comming…?

Natural gas offers environmental benefits when compared to other fossil fuels, its resources are abundant, well spread across all regions. Recent technological advances have supported increased global trade.

„Golden age of gas" may endanger: too high cost and other, especially environmental

obstacles of the unconventional gas mining significant achievements in energy efficiency and

related energy savings technological advances and government policies to

increase the competitiveness of other energy sources (eg renewables and nuclear)

Currently, there is, according to the IEA, „surely a prospect to designate the Golden Age of Gas“.