ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE - Polar Meteorologypolarmet.osu.edu/Docs/Colloquium_Lecture.pdf · Department Of Geography, The Ohio State University OUTLINE Part I: A Glimpse of the Changing

THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITYTHE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITYDEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHYDEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHYCOLLOQUIUM SERIES 2010COLLOQUIUM SERIES 2010--20112011

ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGEARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE

Dr. David Bromwich

The Ohio State University

THE ARCTIC TODAY

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/45000/45766/arctic_ams_2010246_lrg.jpg

Department Of Geography, The Ohio State University

OUTLINE

Part I: A Glimpse of the Changing Arctic– Sea Ice Extent, Thickness, and Age– Arctic Ocean Temperatures and Methane Venting– Greenland Melt Extent and Arctic Temperature Anomalies– Permafrost Changes and Increased Frost Free Season– The Greening of the Arctic, Insect Invasion, Marine Life Distribution Changes

Part II: The Arctic System Reanalysis– What is the Arctic System Reanalysis?– Initial Results from ASR Prototype

Part III: Impacts, Resources, and Global Politics– CCSM Temperature and Permafrost Projections– Arctic Ocean Storms and Increased Coastal Erosion– Arctic Resource Potential and Global Political Setting

COLLOQUIUM SERIES 2010-2011


Part I:A Glimpse of the Changing Arctic

Title: Retreating Glacier in Denali National Park, AlaskaDescription: Retreating glacier viewed southward from Polychrome Mountain in Denali National Park, Alaska, on July 29, 2009.Location: Denali National Park, AK, USADate Taken: 7/29/2009Photographer: Dennis G. Dye, , U.S. Geological Survey



http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Monthly September ice extent for 1979 to 2010 shows a decline of 11.5% per decade. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center11.5%

dec-1



Daily Arctic sea ice extent as of October 3, 2010, along with daily ice extents for years with the previous four lowest minimum extents. The solid light blue line indicates 2010; dark blue shows 2009, purple shows 2008; dashed green shows 2007; light green shows 2005; and solid gray indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center


http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/words/word.pl?standard%20deviation



http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/





Arctic sea ice extent for September 2010 was 4.90 million square kilometers (1.89 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center







Courtesy of Dr. Jason Box



These images show the change in ice age from spring 2010 to fall 2010. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation this winter slowed the export of older ice out of the Arctic in the winter, but a large amount of older ice melted out during the summer.Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center Courtesy C. Fowler and J. Maslanik, CU Boulder


This summer, sea surface temperatures were higher than average, but lower than in the last three years. The maps above show average sea surface temperatures and anomalies for August 2007 to 2010.Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center courtesy M. Steele, University of Washington




Summertime observations of dissolved CH4 in the ESAS. (A) Positions of oceanographic stations in the eastern Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea; bathymetry lines for 10, 20, and 50 m depth are shown in blue. (B) Dissolved CH4 in bottom water. (C) Dissolved CH4 in surface water. (D) Fluxes of CH4 venting to the atmosphere over the ESAS.From: Shakova, N., I. Semiletov, A. Salyuk, V. Yusupov, D. Kosmach, and Ö. Gustafsson, 2010: Extensive methane venting to the atmosphere from sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Science, 327, 1246, doi: 10.1126/science.1182221.



(A) Logarithmic representation of wetland daily emissions of CH4 per unit of area inferred from fitting a temperature-groundwater wetland model to SCIAMACHY CH4 concentrations averaged on a 3° × 3° grid over 2003–2005. The normalized wetland and rice paddy emission distribution was scaled to 227 Tg of CH4 (1).

(C) Predicted changes in annual wetland emissions for global wetlands, the tropics, the mid-latitudes from 23°N to 45°N, the mid-latitudes from 45°N to 67°N, the Arctic latitudes (>67° N), and the Southern Hemisphere. We assume a global wetland CH4 flux of 170 Tg/year in 2003 (1). The line thickness denotes the estimated uncertainty of the predicted changes, including random errors from G and TS measurements, and the error associated with 170 Tg/year, which we estimate as the standard deviation of global wetland CH4 emission estimates taken from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (1).

From: Bloom, A., P. Palmer, A. Fraser, D. Reay, and C. Frenkenberg, 2010: Large-scale controls of methanogenesis inferred from methane and gravity spaceborne data. Science, 327, 322-325,doi: 10.1126/science.1175176


•Wetland Emissions 20-40% total CH4•Satellite column observations of CH4 from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCHIAMACHY) on Envisat•Gravity Anomaly Measurements from GRACE•Global increase in CH4 from wetlands during 2003-2007 study period•Arctic wetland emissions (>67 ˚N) increased by 30.6% ± 0.9% ~4.2 ± 1.0 Tg of CH4/year


Time series of Greenland melt extent derived from passive microwave remote sensing from 2010 (red), 2007 (blue), and the 1979-2007 average (green).


Courtesy of Dr. Jason Box, after Mote (2007)Mote, T.L., 2007: Greenland surface melt trends 1973-2007: Evidence of a large increase in 2007. Geophys. Res. Let., 34, L22507, doi:10.1029/2007GL031976.

Nuuk, Greenland

2010 Statistics


Courtesy of Dr. Jason Box


Petermann Glacier Ice Island Formation: NASA MODIS imagery illustrating the largest detachment observed in Greenland. The data are processed in-house at Byrd Polar Research Center. http://bprc.osu.edu/MODIS/




Maps generated at: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/












http://ipa.arcticportal.org/index.php/what-is-permafrost.html

Permafrost is defined as ground (soil or rock and included ice or organic material) that remains at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive years. Lowland permafrost regions are traditionally divided into several zones based on estimated geographic continuity in the landscape. A typical classification recognizes continuous permafrost (underlying 90-100% of the landscape); discontinuous permafrost (50-90%); and sporadic permafrost (0-50%).


Left: Data provided by Dr. Glenn Juday, School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Science, Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station, University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

Right: Brown, J. and V.E. Romanovsky, 2008: Report from the International Permafrost Association: State of permafrost in the first decade of the 21st century. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 19(2), 255-260.


United States Global Research Program: http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts


Top: Change in Max NDVI 1982-2006 From: Walker, D.A., U.S. Bhatt, H.E. Epstein, M.K. Raynolds, G.J. Jia, and J.C. Comiso, The Greening of the Arctic IPY Project: Changes in Arctic vegetation observed from space are linked to retreating sea-ice and warmer land temperaturesLeft: Pictures of the Tanana Flats in Alaska over 20 years


http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-tundra.shtml

Torre Jorgenson

“THE GREENING OF THE ARCTIC”




“During the 1990s, for example, south-central Alaska experienced the largest outbreak of spruce beetles in the world. This outbreak occurred because rising temperatures allowed the spruce beetle to survive over the winter and to complete its life cycle in just one year instead of the normal two years. Extended drought left the trees too stressed to fight off the infestation.”

Information from: Ryan, M.G., and coauthors, 2008: Land resources. In: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, pp. 75-120. and Juday, G.P., V. Barber, P. Duffy, H. Linderholm, T.S. Rupp, S. Sparrow, E. Vaganov, and J. Yarie, 2005: Forests, land management, and agriculture. In: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, pp. 781-862. <http://www.acia.uaf.edu/pages/scientific.html>




“Bering Sea Pollock fishery has undergone major declines in recent years. Fish, seabirds, seals, walruses, and other species depend on plankton blooms that asthe sea ice retreats, the location, timing, and species composition of the plankton blooms changes, reducing the amount of food reaching the living things on the ocean floor.”

Information from: Mueter, F.J. and M.A. Litzow, 2007: Sea ice retreat alters the biogeographyof the Bering Sea continental shelf. Ecological Applications,18(2), 309-320.

Part II. THE ARCTIC SYSTEM REANALYSIS

Part II. THE ARCTIC SYSTEM REANALYSIS

Supported by NSF, NOAA, and DOESupported by NSF, NOAA, and DOE

Arctic System

Arctic System evolves with a changing climate

Arctic System Reanalysis Motivation1. Rapid climate change is happening in the Arctic, as we have just seen. A comprehensive picture of the climate interactions is needed.

2. Global reanalyses encounter many problems at high latitudes.The ASR is using the best available depiction of Arctic processes with improved temporal resolution and much higher spatial resolution.

3. The ASR provides fields for which direct observation are sparse or problematic (precipitation, radiation, cloud, ...) at higher resolution than from existing reanalyses.

4. A system-oriented approach provides community focus with the atmosphere, land surface and sea ice communities.

5. The ASR provides a convenient synthesis of Arctic field programs (SHEBA, LAII/ATLAS, ARM, ...).

ASR OutlineA physically-consistent integration of Arctic and other Northern Hemisphere data

Participants:Ohio State University - Byrd Polar Research Center (BPRC)

- and Ohio Supercomputer Center (OSC)National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR)University of Colorado-Boulder University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

High resolution in space (10 km) and time (3 hours)

Begin with years 2000-2010 (Earth Observing System)

Polar WRF(Version 3.2.1)

Polar WRF(Version 3.2.1)

The key modifications for Polar WRF are: •Optimal turbulence (boundary layer) parameterization Implementation of a fractional sea ice description in the Noah LSM •Improved treatment of heat transfer for ice sheets and revised surface energy balance calculation in the Noah LSM

Model evaluations through Polar WRF simulations over Greenland, the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA site), and Alaska have been performed.

Polar WRF is used by forecasters as part of the National ScienceFoundation sponsored Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System.

Polar WRF is used by ASR.

The key modifications for Polar WRF are: •Optimal turbulence (boundary layer) parameterization Implementation of a fractional sea ice description in the Noah LSM •Improved treatment of heat transfer for ice sheets and revised surface energy balance calculation in the Noah LSM

Model evaluations through Polar WRF simulations over Greenland, the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA site), and Alaska have been performed.

Polar WRF is used by forecasters as part of the National ScienceFoundation sponsored Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System.

Polar WRF is used by ASR.

ASR WRF-3DVar / WRF Modeling System

BackgroundError

(gen_be)

Nested WRF3h Forecast

xb

xaUpdate Lateral& Lower BCs

(UPDATE_BC)

BackgroundPreprocessing(WPS , real)

xlbc

Cycled Background

B0

yo , R

xf

WRF-3DVar

Global FieldsERA-Interim

Seasonal dependent

PREPBUFRRadiance BUFROther spec. data

3h frequency

HRLDAS output

Verification &Visualization

WRF-3DVar Analysis performed over one domain in a 3-h interval

Atmospheric Data Assimilation

Aqua (AMSU, AIRS)

NOAA (HIRS, AMSU)


Observational Data for ASR


Observational Data for ASR

PREPBUFR(including synop, metar, ship, buoy, qscat,sound, airep, profiler, pilot, satob,

ssmi_retrieval_sea_surface_wind_speed, ssmi_retrieval_pw, gpspw)

Radiancesdifferent sensors (amsua, amsub, mhs, hirs3, hirs4) in separate BUFR files

GPSGPSRO, GPSIPW

High-Resolution Land Data AssimilationSystem (HRLDAS) for ASR

�

Blending atmospheric and land-surface observations and land surface modelTo provide land state variables for driving the coupled

Polar WRF/Noah modeling system– Soil moisture (liquid and solid phase)– Soil temperature– Snow water equivalent and depth– Canopy water content– Vegetation characteristics

To provide long-term evolution of the above variablesplus surface hydrological cycle (runoff, evaporation)and energy cycle (surface heat flux, ground heat flux,upward long-wave radiation)

Domain for ASR

Grid:Grid:High Res: 10 km High Res: 10 km Low Res: 30 kmLow Res: 30 km

Vertical Grid:Vertical Grid:71Levels71Levels

Includes Arctic Includes Arctic River BasinsRiver Basins

ASR Data Assimilation Result

Precipitation ASR

ERA

Yearly Total 2007, Unit: cm

ERA-Interim

ASR Data Assimilation Result: Near Surface Variable StatisticsAverage statistics from comparing ASR for 2007 with observations.

Wind Speed 2m-Temperature 2m-Dew point Surface pressureMonth

bias rmse corr bias rmse corr bias rmse corr bias rmse corr

01 1.32 2.76 0.75 0.24 2.88 0.91 1.57 2.89 0.91 0.34 1.14 0.9902 1.19 2.61 0.75 0.22 2.78 0.91 1.74 2.97 0.90 0.31 1.10 0.9903 1.02 2.50 0.75 -0.18 2.95 0.91 1.37 2.80 0.88 0.29 1.10 0.9904 0.79 2.21 0.75 -0.37 2.79 0.93 0.98 2.48 0.88 0.26 0.97 0.9905 0.54 2.07 0.72 -0.54 3.03 0.90 0.43 2.30 0.87 0.24 1.02 0.9806 0.50 1.89 0.72 -0.48 2.96 0.91 0.24 2.08 0.85 0.22 0.97 0.9807 0.49 1.84 0.71 -0.59 2.88 0.90 0.22 2.04 0.83 0.23 0.96 0.9808 0.55 1.86 0.72 -0.58 2.75 0.91 0.25 1.91 0.86 0.24 0.94 0.9809 0.77 2.06 0.74 -0.57 2.62 0.92 0.40 2.01 0.89 0.29 0.96 0.9910 0.88 2.20 0.74 -0.40 2.59 0.92 0.60 2.06 0.91 0.32 0.99 0.9911 1.16 2.58 0.74 -0.11 2.71 0.91 1.10 2.50 0.90 0.32 1.05 0.9912 1.16 2.60 0.75 0.18 2.78 0.90 1.54 2.86 0.90 0.28 1.07 0.99

Average 0.86 2.27 0.74 -0.26 2.81 0.91 0.87 2.41 0.88 0.28 1.02 0.99

Average statistics from comparing AVN for 2007 with observations.Month Wind Speed 2m-Temperature 2m-Dew point Surface pressure

bias rmse corr bias rmse corr bias rmse corr bias rmse corr

01 0.28 2.30 0.72 -0.41 3.29 0.89 1.35 3.01 0.90 0.16 1.18 0.9902 0.17 2.15 0.72 -0.77 3.31 0.87 1.32 3.08 0.88 0.15 1.17 0.9903 -0.03 2.12 0.70 -1.36 3.59 0.87 1.19 3.08 0.85 0.15 1.19 0.9904 -0.21 2.00 0.69 -1.51 3.60 0.88 0.78 2.98 0.83 0.17 1.07 0.9905 -0.14 2.03 0.65 -1.19 3.48 0.88 0.12 2.66 0.84 0.12 1.05 0.9806 -0.13 1.88 0.64 -1.09 3.38 0.87 -0.87 2.70 0.79 0.11 1.02 0.9807 -0.03 1.85 0.63 -0.93 3.29 0.87 -1.21 2.78 0.76 0.13 1.00 0.9808 0.08 1.86 0.63 -0.85 3.26 0.86 -1.10 2.64 0.80 0.14 1.01 0.9809 0.22 2.00 0.66 -0.77 3.15 0.88 -0.41 2.46 0.85 0.12 1.02 0.9910 0.31 2.01 0.68 -0.60 3.08 0.88 0.37 2.38 0.88 0.07 1.06 0.9911 0.40 2.22 0.70 -0.21 3.15 0.89 1.18 2.96 0.88 0.10 1.10 0.9912 0.43 2.24 0.72 -0.10 3.23 0.87 1.86 3.52 0.88 -0.01 1.21 0.99

Average 0.11 2.06 0.68 -0.82 3.32 0.88 0.38 2.85 0.85 0.12 1.09 0.99

ASR Data Assimilation ResultPolar WRF corrected 2m-temperature warm bias over Greenland

Polar WRF

AVN

AVN

Data assimilation 2m-temperature (oC) using Polar WRF and WRF, and NCEP AVN 2m-temperature (oC) in October 2007.

AVN

ERA-Interm


10m Wind Speed Correlationbetween ASR (AVN) assimilation and observations in August 2008

ASR AVN


2m Temperature Correlationbetween ASR (AVN) assimilation and observations in December 2007

ASR AVN


Part III. Impacts, Resources, and Global Politics

Arctic storms led to rapid erosion. This cabin fell into the Beaufort Sea, (along Alaska’s Arctic coast) a region where some coastlines retreated more than24 meters (80 feet) in 2007!Photograph courtesy Benjamin Jones, USGShttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/SeaIce/page3.php




Top: Title: The Ivotuk Hills, Alaska North Slope, Viewed From Ivotuk Camp Description: Exposures of sedimentary rocks in the western Brooks Range, Alaska were evaluated for their contents of metals and phosphate and for their petroleum maturation histories to determine the potential for undiscovered resources in the southern National Petroleum Reserve Alaska. Location: Ivotuk, AK, USAPhotographer: Craig Johnson , U.S. Geological Survey

http://answers.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/gsanswers?pemail=cjohnso


Composite anomaly time series of September sea ice extent (solid line) and OND Tair (dashed line) over Arctic land area (65–80N, 60–300E). Composites are formed by averaging nine 31-yr anomaly time series. Each of the nine time series are centered about the mid-point of a CCSM3 rapid sea ice loss event (lag 0 years) and are anomalies from the lag 10 to 5 year mean. (b) Average monthly Arctic land air Temperature trends during rapid sea ice loss periods and outside sea ice loss periods. The difference in trends are statistically significant at the 90% (single asterisk) and 95% (double asterisk) levels. (c) Maps of air temperature trends for OND during and outside abrupt sea ice loss periods.


From Lawrence, D.M., A.G. Slater, R. A. Thomas, M.M. Holland, and C. Deser, 2008: Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost degradation during rapid sea ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L11506, doi:10.1029/2008GL033985

RILES and 21st CCSM Temperature Projections


Ensemble mean permafrost area and active layer thickness as simulated in CCSM3 at the end of the (a) 20th and (b) 21st centuries. (c) Observational estimates of permafrost (continuous, discontinuous, sporadic, and isolated). (d) Time series of simulated global permafrost area (excluding glacial Greenland and Antarctica). The gray shaded area represents the ensemble spread.


CCSM3 Permafrost Projections

From Lawrence, D.M., and A.G. Slater, 2005: A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the21st century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L22401, doi:10.1029/2005GL025080



Left: Longer ice-free season is likely to make more heat and moisture available for storms in the Arctic Ocean, increasing their frequency and/or intensity. Data provided by Dr. David Atkinson, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks.

Right: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2008: Newtok Evacuation Center, Mertarvik, Nelson Island, Alaska. Revised environmental assessment. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Alaska District, [Elmendorf AFB, 64 pp.]




Russian explorers on Aug. 3, 2007, planted a Russian flag during a remote-controlled dive in the Arctic Ocean under the ice at the North Pole.From Associated Press http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27829063/



http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3049/“The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has completed an assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in all areas north of the Arctic Circle. Using a geology-based probabilistic methodology, the USGS estimated the occurrence of undiscovered oil and gas in 33 geologic provinces thought to be prospective for petroleum. The sum of the mean estimates for each province indicates that 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids may remain to be found in the Arctic, of which approximately 84 percent is expected to occur in offshore areas.”



Top Right: Shows an Annotated Image of ENVISAT (©European Space Agency) and RADARSAT (©MDA) of the Northern Sea Route Opening as analyzed on September 12, 2010.Bottom Right: Shows an Annotated Image of ENVISAT (©European Space Agency) and RADARSAT (©MDA), and MODIS of the Northwest Passage Sea Route Opening as analyzed on September 20, 2010.Top Left: The Russian yacht ‘Peter the First’ has become the first vessel in history to complete the Northeast Passage from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific and the Northwest Passage from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic in the course of a single Northern Hemisphere summer. Importantly, it did this without the help of an icebreaker.

Photo:RIA Novosti: http://english.ruvr.ru/2010/09/27/22617050.html


NE

NW



From “The World in 2050” by Laurence C. Smithhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703440604575496261529207620.html

Appeared in The Wall Street Journal May 27, 2010THE ARCTIC IN 2050?THE ARCTIC IN 2050?

“Imagine the Arctic in 2050 as a frigid version of Nevada – an empty landscape dotted with gleaming boom towns.”

U.S. NSF – a half a billion dollars annually to polar research

The “New North”(North of 45 °N)

15% Earth’s surface area29% ice free land12 million mi2¼ billion people$7 trillion economy

Documents

ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE - Polar Meteorologypolarmet.osu.edu/Docs/Colloquium_Lecture.pdf · Department Of Geography, The Ohio State University OUTLINE Part I: A Glimpse of the Changing