PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: ARKANSAS, GEORGIA, KENTUCKY, AND

TEXAS RUNOFFP RIME-A RY Perspectives is a series that will give you an overview of the most noteworthyresults from each state's primary election, focusing on congressional districts that are likelyto be most competitive in November, as well as those that will have new representation in2019 because of retirements. As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us with questions!

ARKANSASA typically deep red state, Arkansas's primaries on the statewide andCongressional levels held no surprises. Rep. French Hill learned who hisNovember Democratic challenger will be and Gov. Hutchinson cruised tovictory against his far-right challenger.

GUBERNATORIALCurrent Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson defeated his primarychallenger 69.78% - 30.22% , allowing him to continue his bid forreelection. Hutchinson had been challenged by Jan Morgan from the right.Jared Henderson, the former executive director for Teach for America'sprogram in Arkansas will be the Democratic nominee. Hutchinson isexpected to cruise to victory in November.

AR-02This central Arkansas district, which encompasses the statecapital of Little Rock, is really the only competitiveCongressional district in the state. Two-term incumbent FrenchHill, a former banking executive and White House aide, isseeking reelection in the R+7 district. While the race isconsidered to be "Likely Republican," it was held by Democratsfor twenty years before 2010's Republican takeover.

Clarke Tucker (D)C larke Tucker, an Arkansian state representative, will challengeincumbent French Hill after winning the Democratic nomination.Tucker is a bladder cancer survivor who has campaigned heavily onexpanding Medicaid, particularly in his home state, and can claim tobe a 7th generation Arkansian. Tucker is campaigning primarily onthe expansion of healthcare and the reduction of healthcare cost.

GEORGIAGeorgia is one of the states that Democratic strategists and partyleaders have had their eyes on for the past several election cycles.This year's election might present the party with its firstopportunity to win the Governor's office since 2002, whencurrent Agriculture Secretary became the first Republican to winsince Reconstruction. Although there are no open House seatsthis cycle, there are two competitive races where Democrats havethe opportunity to secure victory, with GA-06 being the morecompetitive of the two races.

Candidates must garner 50% + 1 vote in order to avoid runoffs. When necessary, the runoffelections will be held July 24.

GUBERNATORIALIn 2014, Governor Nathan Deal (R), a former member of the House ofRepresentatives, beat out Jason Carter (D) to win reelection. Deal secured52.8% of the vote. As he is term-limited this year, both the Republican andDemocratic candidates on the ballot in November will be new to theoffice.52.3% of the votes cast were in the Republican primary, with theremainder in Democratic primary, a significant shift from 2014 when 65%of primary votes were cast in the Republican race. The Gubernatorial

election is considered "Safe Republican," though it has generated considerable buzz inDemocratic circles as being a possible pickup should the "Blue Wave" come to fruition.

Stacey Abrams (D)Cruising to victory in the Democratic primary with 76% of thevote, Abrams will wait until July to see who will be her Republicanchallenger. Abrams is the former Minority Leader of the GeorgiaHouse of Representatives and was the first woman to lead one ofthe two parties in the General Assembly. Abrams is also an award-

winning romance author. If she were to pull out the victory in November, Abramswould become the country's first black female governor.

Republican RunoffNone of the candidates for governor received enough votes tobypass the runoff, so the top two vote-getters will face off againin July. Because there were five candidates in the original field,the race leading up to last night's election drew hard to the right,

with candidates focusing on expanding gun rights, cutting taxes,and conservative immigration positions. The race gained nationwide attention whenone of the candidates decided to tour in a "deportation bus." Current Lt. GovernorCasey Cagle, who received 39% of the vote, and current Georgia Secretary of StateBrian Kemp, who earned 26% of the vote, will continue their hard-fought battle.

GA-06The 6th District was home to last year's most contentious primaryelection, which also happened to be one of the most expensive Houseraces in history. This metro Atlanta district has a history of electingconservative Republican candidates. The district is rated as R+8,though President Trump only won by 2% in 2016.

Last year's special election winner, Karen Handel (R) managed to secure 51.8% to DemocratJon Ossoff's 48.2%. The District is rated as "Leans Republican," and Handel will face a newDemocratic challenger in November.

Democratic RunoffOut of the four Democratic candidates running for theopportunity to take on Karen Handel in November, LucyMcBath and Kevin Abel secured enough votes to continue on tothe runoff. McBath, who was won 36% of the primary votes, isa gun reform advocate, whose political action began after herson was killed in Florida by a stranger who objected to how loud

his music was playing. Kevin Abel, a native of South Africa, moved to Atlanta in 1990after completing college in Texas. He is a business consultant who started his owntechnology consulting company and sits on the Board of Directors of the MetroAtlanta Chamber of Commerce.

GA-07In a normal political year, Georgia's 7th District would not beconsidered competitive. It has a rating of R+9, and has beenrepresented by such conservative stalwarts as Bob Barr and JohnLinder. However, the District's changing demographics, as well as itsrelatively high percentage of college educated voters, make this apossible pick-up for Democrats, though they will need to overcomesignificant hurdles. Rep. Rob Woodall, a former Chief of Staff for Rep.John Linder, was first elected in 2010.

Democratic RunoffThe Democratic Party fielded half a dozen candidates seeking tounseat Rep. Woodall, and the top two candidates wereseparated by just over 400 votes. Carolyn Bourdeaux, who won27% of the vote, names healthcare reform, gun reform, andprotecting women's rights as her top priorities. She is aProfessor at the Andrew Young School of Public Policy and

previously served as an aide to Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Oregon). David Kim, the founderand former CEO of C2 Education Centers, won 26% of the vote. Kim ran on improving

the quality of education and educational opportunities, reforming gun laws, andmaking healthcare affordable for everyone.

KENTUCKYAs Kentucky has no Senate or Gubernatorial electionsthis cycle, it was a quiet night on for federal primaryelections. However, the Kentucky House MajorityLeader was defeated in his primary, part of theongoing public rebellion by educators against cuts totheir funding and pensions.

KY-06

Two-term incumbent Andy Barr easily won the KY-6's Republicanprimary with 83% of the vote. The central-northeast Kentucky districtencompasses the state capitol, Frankfort, as well as the populationcenters of Lexington and Richmond. While the district has a Cook P VIscore of R+9, Burr will by no means face an easy general election as arecent Public Policy poll found a generic Democratic candidate leading

Burr by 44% to 43%. There's also a potential enthusiasm and turnout gap inyesterday's primary worth noting, as only 48,000 Republican votes were cast tothe 100,000 Democratic votes.

Amy McGrath (D)Marine Corps lieutenant colonel and former defense and foreignaffairs policy advisor Amy McGrath, squeaked away with thevictory in yesterday's Democratic primary defeating Lexingtonmayor Jim Gray by a margin of just 8%. Her candidacy hasgenerated a lot of enthusiasm on the Democratic side, especiallygaining national attention for an ad touting herself as the firstfemale Marine to fly an F-18 fighter jet in combat. In a district

that Donald Trump won by more than 15%, the Edgewood, Kentucky native andVoteVets-endorsed candidate will attempt to flip this seat in November.

TEXAS (RUNOFF)Texas held its runoff elections, whose candidates failed to garnermajorities from the March 6 primary election. The coverage below only encompasses those runoffs, not the broader primarylandscape. Our coverage of March 6's election can be found onthe PRIME-ary Perspective.

GUBERNATORIAL

Last night, it was Idaho's governor's race that received most attention, asGovernor Butch Otter also announced his retirement for the office he heldsince 2006. In a deeply-red Idaho, it was the heated three-way Republicanprimary race for governor that presented most uncertainty.

Lupe Valdez (D)Lupe Valdez has won the Democratic primary and will be herparty's nominee for governor following her victory Tuesdaynight. Valdez, formerly the Dallas County Sherriff, is not only thefirst Latina nominee in Texas' gubernatorial history, but also thefirst openly gay nominee. Even after her historic night, she faces

an uphill battle in November as sitting Gov. Gregg Abbot won his 2014 election withnearly 60% of the vote and is strongly positioned to defend his seat.

TX-02

TX-02 is located in southeast Texas, including parts of Houston andHarris County. Incumbent Republican Ted Poe has held the seat sincebeating out Democrat Jim Turner in 2004. He won handily in 2016,earning 61% of the vote, but has indicated that he will not be runningfor reelection. In the presidential election, Trump carried the district52% to Clinton's 43%.

Daniel Crenshaw (R)Daniel Crenshaw will represent the Republican Party in Texas'

2n d Congressional District this November after beating Texas

Rep. Kevin Roberts in the runoff election. Crenshaw, a former

Navy SEA L who served in Afghanistan, where he lost his right eye

in a IED explosion, is a 6th generation Texan originally from Houston and is fluent in

Spanish. On top of this impressive resume, he opted to serve two more tours after his

injury before retiring in 2016 to pursue his Master's degree in Public Administration at

Harvard. He will be facing Democratic nominee Todd Litton in the general election in a

district that leans Republican.

TX-03

Sam Johnson has elected to step down from his TX-03 seat, havingheld it since 1991. The district includes Frisco, Plano, McKinney, partsof Dallas and most of Collins County. It has not sent a Democrat to theHouse since 1968. Trump won the district 55% to Clinton's 41%, and isthought to be a lock for another Republican representative.

Lorie Burch (D)

Lorie Burch will represent the Democratic Party in the generalelection after beating Sam Johnson (no relation to Rep. SamJohnson) 75% to 25% in the runoff. Burch, a lawyer and a socialactivist who grew up in Plano, is running on a non-partisan,common-sense platform that has resonated well in her district.Even after her impressive win in the primary, she will face a toughgeneral election against Van Taylor - a candidate that won nearly

85% of his primary and received over three times as many votes as Burch did in herrunoff.

TX-05

House Financial Services Committee Chair Hensarling is leaving his TX-05 seat after 15 years of service. The northeasterly districtencompasses Mesquite, the southeast part of Dallas County, fivewhole counties (Anderson, Cherokee, Henderson, Kaufman, VanZandt) and part of Wood County. The district overwhelmingly went toTrump - he won 63% to Clinton's 34%.

Lance Gooden (R)Lance Gooden, currently a Texas state representative, has won

the Republican primary after beating Bunni Pounds - Rep.

Hensarling's former campaign manager and a Republican

fundraiser. Gooden is running on a platform that includes

additional funding for security at the U.S. borders, the full repeal of the Affordable

Care Act, and the reduction of the national deficit by heavily cutting spending. His

traditionally conservative platform will play well in his district which the Cook Political

Report rates as "Solid Republican", and he is expected to win against Democratic

nominee Dan Wood in November.

TX-06

TX-06 is located mainly south of the Dallas/Fort Worth area, butstretches to include some parts of Arlington and Fort Worth itself.Incumbent Rep. Joe Barton is stepping down after revelations abouthis personal life, but it likely won't impact the GOP's hold on thedistrict - in the previous presidential election, Trump secured it at 54-42.

Jana Lynne Sanchez (D)Winning 53% of the vote last night, Sanchez will be the Democraticnominee. She is a public relations professional and formerjournalist.

Ron Wright (R)In a close race, Wright emerged with 52% of the vote. He currentlyserves as the Tarrant County Tax Assessor Collector and has served asthe District Director for outgoing Rep. Barton.

TX-07

John Culberson's district covers the western Houston suburbs, and isshaping up to be one of the tougher House races in the state. WhileCulberson has handily won reelection most years since winning theseat at the end of 2000, 2016's presidential election resulted in a slim48-47 Clinton win, with the Cook Report rating the race a RepublicanToss Up.

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D)Lizzie Fletcher, who earned the most votes in the Marchprimary, continued on to victory last night. The moderatewas viewed by the DCCC as the best candidate to knockof Rep. Culberson in November. Fletcher, a corporateattorney, campaigned on abortion rights and

strengthening the Affordable Care Act.

TX-21

Lamar Smith's district occupies parts of northern San Antonio, parts ofsouthwest Austin, and stretches out to the northwest to includeFredericksburg, Medina and Harper. Smith is stepping down, but thedistrict does not look like it will turn - Trump won 52-42 in 2016, and thedistrict has had a GOP representative since the late 1970s.

Joseph Kopser (D)In a close March 6th primary where Mary Wilson edged JosephKopser 31-29, it was Kopser who emerged victorious inyesterday's runoff, claiming 58% to Wilson's 42%. Kosper is anArmy veteran and tech entrepreneur, who also has close ties tobusiness, serving on the board of the Texas Association of

Businesses. He was by far the more moderate candidate of the "likely Republican"district and will face Chip Roy in November.

Chip Roy (R)In a March 6th primary that originally had 18 Republicancandidates, it was former Sen. Ted Cruz chief-of-staff Chip Roywho emerged victorious snagging 52% of yesterday's runoffvotes against Matt McCall. Roy has most recently served as VP ofStrategy for the Texas Public Policy Foundation. The Lamar

Smith district has a Cook P VI score of R+10 and stretches fromparts San Antonio to southwest Austin.

TX-23

Incumbent Will Hurt (R) will have to defend this seat in a raceconsidered by "toss-up" with a Cook P VI score of R+1. The district has aHispanic majority, and includes substantial parts of the San Antoniosuburbs, and runs west along the Texas-Mexico border up to El Paso'soutskirts.

Gina Ortiz Jones (D)In a district that narrowly reelected Republican Will Hurt, butwent to Hillary Clinton by 50-46, 37-year old Gina Ortiz Jonesemerged victorious in yesterday's Democratic runoff over RickTrevino. Jones is a former Air Force intelligence officer anddescribes herself as, "openly gay, openly first generation, openly

veteran, openly Asian-American, openly everything." National Democrats haveprojected TX-23 as a key pick-up opportunity in November.

TX-27

After reports that Farenthold used taxpayer money to settle on asexual harassment lawsuit filed by a former employee, he announcedhe would not be running for reelection. His district includes CorpusChristi, runs up the Gulf Coast to Bay City, and reaches up to thefarther outskirts of Austin. The GOP should be relatively confident ofretaining the seat: Farenthold has held the seat for four terms, and thedistrict went 60-37 to Trump in 2016.

Michael Cloud (R)While Bech Bruun edged Michael Cloud by just 3% in the March

primary, it was Michael Cloud who took a commanding 61% in

yesterday's head-to-head runoff. Cloud has served as County

Chair of the Victoria County Republican Party for seven years

and the owner of a media strategy company. The district has a Cook P VI Score of

R+13 and encompasses Corpus Christi and runs along the Gulf Coast to Bay City. The

district has no current representation due to Blake Farenthold's resignation in April

over a scandal that exposed the Congressman utilizing taxpayer funds to settle a

sexual harassment lawsuit filed by a former staffer.

Eric Holguin (D)Similar to the Republican runoff, Roy Barrera who won the MarchDemocratic primary, was defeated by Eric Holguin by nearly 30%

in yesterday's head-to-head runoff. With previous experienceworking on Capitol Hill for Rep. Carolyn Maloney's (D-NY) staff, Holguin is also aformer Corpus Christi City Council candidate who also worked for NYC ComptrollerScott Stringer.

TX-32

Incumbent Pete Sessions (R) district includes north Dallas, Garland,and Dallas' northeastern suburbs. Sessions has not truly had a toughrace since taking the seat after its creation after the 2000 census andsubsequent redistricting. After going for Romney 57-41 in 2012, thedistrict reacted poorly to Donald Trump's candidacy and flipped forHillary Clinton 49-47 in 2016. The district has a Cook P VI score of R+5and another Texas seat Democrats hope to flip in November.

Colin Allred (D)Colin Allred defeated Lillian Salerno by receiving nearly70% of the vote in the Democratic runoff. 35-year oldColin Allred is a Civil Rights attorney and formerTennessee Titans linebacker will face incumbent PeteSessions in November for what's considered by The

Dallas Morning News one of the "costliest and competitive House races in the nation."

Prepared by Owen Taylor, Sam Lane and Casie Daugherty

Prime Policy Group | www.prime-policy.com | 202 530 0500