AQUAINT R&D Program: Phase I 18-Month Workshop WELCOME

AQUAINT R&D Program:Phase I 18-Month Workshop

WELCOME

Advanced Question AnsweringScenario Exercise

Dr. John D. PrangeAQUAINT Program Manager

[email protected]

http://www.ic-arda.org

3 AQUAINT Ph I 18-Month Wkshp – 9-12 June 2003

Information Exploitation (Info-X)

Presentation and Visualization

Information Discovery

AnalyticKnowledge

Information Retrieval

InformationUnderstanding

Assessmentand

Interpretation

Content Data Mark-up

Content Data Transformation

Synthesis and Fusion

IC Analysts

Data Filtering& Selection

Reporting and Dissemination

What Functions Does It Include?

Info-X is Focused on Informational Content & Its MeaningAnd on Enhancing the IC Analyst’s Interaction

with these Info-X Functions


“Providing answers to the questions analysts ask”

“Pulling” Information

• Accept complex “Questions” in a form natural to the analyst

• Translate “Question” into multiple queries appropriate to the various data sets to be searched

• Find relevant information in distributed, multimedia, multilingual, multi-agency data sets

• Analyze, fuse and summarize information into a coherent “Answer”

• Provide “Answer” to analyst in the form they want

I have plentyof Questions;It’s Answersthat I need!!

IC ANALYST


AQUAINTAdvanced QUestion Answering for INTelligence

• What it is and What it is not . . .

– Question & Answering Aimed at the “Information Professional” --- Not just the Casual User





– Full Range of Questions --- Not just Factoid Questions






– Rich, Contextually-based Question Scenarios --- Not just Isolated Questions


Overarching Context / Operational Requirement

Who is thisadvisor?

What do weknow about

him/her?

What are his/her views?

What influence does he/she have on FM?

And still more questions ???

In a foreign news broadcast a team of analysts observe a previously unknown individual conferring with the Foreign Minister. They suspect

that he/she is really a new senior advisor.

Does this signal that other

policy changes are coming?

Intelligence Analysts



Overarching Context /Operational Requirement

AdvancedQA

Extract & AnalyzeResults

DeeperAutomated

Understanding

Answers

Interpret Results& Formulate the Answers

Provide Answers in a Form

Analysts Want

Ranked Lists of

“Relevant” Data Objects

System SpecificQueries; Fully Tailoredto Series of Questions

ExtendTraditional Information Retrieval

MultipleHeterogeneous

DataSources

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Multi-Media Multi-Media Structured Structured

Other Other

Text Text Voice Voice

InterpretingComplex

QA Scenario within a

Larger ContextFactoid

Questions?

WhyQuestions

?

InterpretiveQuestions?

Judgement Questions?

OtherQuestions?

Information Analysts

Predictive Questions

?








– Open Domain, Multiple Media, Multiple Languages, Multiple Genre, Structured and Unstructured Data --- Not just a Focused Data Environment







– Open Domain, Multiple Media, Multiple Languages, Multiple Genre, Structured and Unstructured Data --- Not just a Focused Data Environment

– Tackling fundamental, very difficult Information Exploitation Challenges


Attacking the Data ChasmFuture

Fully Intersected;Automatically

Generated;Variable Structure/Format;

Full Context Responses

Full Context-Based

QuestionScenario

Level III

Full Context-Based

QuestionScenario

Fully Intersected;Automatically

Generated;Variable Structure/Format;

Full Context Responses

Level II

Variable NarrativeSummary;

Multi-Media Presentations;

Simple InterpretedResults

Cross MediaCross Document

Simple Judgement

Level I

Fixed Templatesor

Tabular Lists

Mulit-ValuedFactual QuestionsQuestions

Answers

Today

50/250 BytePassage from

Single TextDocument

SingleFactualIsolated

Questions

Data Chasm

Missing Data

MANY Heterogeneous Data Sources;

All Types, Sizes, Locations

IncreasingVolumes

(Petabyte & up)

Synthesis Across“Documents”/Media

ContradictoryDataReliability

of DataMultiple

Perspectives



AnalyticTask /

Scenario

Analyst

Questions

System Questions

System Answers

2 Recorders

Facilitator

Researcher

Analyst

ParticipatingObservers

AdvancedQA System

Of the Future

AnalyticStrategy



AnalyticTask /

Scenario

Analyst

Questions

System Questions

System Answers

2 Recorders

Facilitator

Researcher

Analyst

2 Oracles


AnalyticStrategy



AnalyticTask /

Scenario

Analyst

Questions

System Questions

System Answers

2 Recorders

Facilitator

Researcher

Analyst

2 Oracles


AdvancedQA System

Of the Future

AnalyticStrategy


Analytic Tasks / Scenarios

• Common Characteristics:

– Description of multi-faceted Information Need

– Description of type and scope of the Analytic Output desired; Who is the ultimate customer; What Timeframe is available

– Description of the Analyst and his/her background; Previous work experience that is relevant to current task

– Three Different Scenario Focuses

• Scenario #1: Multiple Perspectives

• Scenario #2: Individual of Interest

• Scenario #3: Long Term Study of a Topical Area

18


AnalyticTask /

Scenario

Analyst

Questions

System Questions

System Answers

2 Recorders

Facilitator

Researcher

Analyst

2 Oracles


AdvancedQA System

Of the Future

AnalyticStrategy


Analytic Strategy

• Analyst Describes Overarching Strategy for completing Assigned Analytic Task / Scenario; For Example this Strategy might include:– Types of information sources that might be consulted

– What is his/her general expectation of the breadth/depth of information that needs to be collected, analyzed and then included in the final product

– A breakdown of your total information needs required to complete the task – preferably

in question form

– The nature of the final product that is the target of the given scenario

– How his/her time & effort would be allocated

– The degree of review/consultation18


AnalyticTask /

Scenario

Analyst

Questions

System Questions

System Answers

2 Recorders

Facilitator

Researcher

Analyst

2 Oracles


AdvancedQA System

Of the Future

AnalyticStrategy


Subtask 1:Analyst’s “Questions”

• Using Analytic Strategy, Analyst chooses the first subtask to be completed and identifies a set of questions whose answers the analyst believes will allow the analyst to complete this subtask.

– Analysts Questions are created without regard to the “capabilities” of the “Advanced QA System of the Future”

– Analyst describes the type of answers that would satisfy the analyst

– Analyst identifies (optionally) any knowledge that they are assuming that the system knows about the analyst or the assigned task

18


AnalyticTask /

Scenario

Analyst

Questions

System Questions

System Answers

2 Recorders

Facilitator

Researcher

Analyst

2 Oracles


AdvancedQA System

Of the Future

AnalyticStrategy


Subtask 1:System “Questions”

• Since the Analyst has not worked with an “Advanced QA System of the Future” before, the analyst is fortunate to have the system’s developer, an AQUAINT Researcher, who knows the full capabilities of the system.– The Researcher may ask “Clarification” Questions of the Analyst

– The Researcher will create a set of “System” Questions that the researcher believes can be successfully answered by the System. For instance the “System” Questions may be a decomposition of the “Analyst’s” Questions

– Researcher will identify those Analyst questions that it believes are beyond the System’s Capabilities

– Researcher will describe the type of answer that the Researcher is expecting the System to provide 18


AnalyticTask /

Scenario

Analyst

Questions

System Questions

System Answers

2 Recorders

Facilitator

Researcher

Analyst

2 Oracles


AdvancedQA System

Of the Future

AnalyticStrategy


Subtask 1:Oracle Generated Answers

• Two Oracles (One Research and one Analyst) will take System “Questions” and will behind the scene in a Wizard-of-Oz fashion generate a System Response Answer– A summary of the Oracles’ activities be recorded but will not

show the results of their internal browsing/searching to either the analyst or researcher.

– “You didn’t specifically ask for this, but I thought you (the Analyst) might find this of interest – Do you want me to follow-up on this information?”

– “I found multiple answers to your question. This is the answer that I believe is more likely correct and here is why I believe that or I can’t determine which answer is correct, so am reporting alternative answers. What do you want me to do next?

– “I can not find an answer to your question. I did (or did not) find a partial answer. How would you like me to proceed?”


Subtask 1:Analyst Responds to “System Answers”

• To each Answer provided by the System (aka “the Two Oracles”), the Analyst may respond – “What is the source/date of the information contained in the

answer?”

– “What is the justification for a given answer?”

– Ask a direct follow-up question that provides “clarification” / “fills in the blanks”.

• At the conclusion of given Subtask, the Analyst provides an assessment:– How well did the System’s Answers satisfy

the given Subtask information needs

– To what extent have future subtasks been altered because of the System’s Answers to date

18


AnalyticTask /

Scenario

Analyst

Questions

System Questions

System Answers

2 Recorders

Facilitator

Researcher

Analyst

2 Oracles


AdvancedQA System

Of the Future

AnalyticStrategy


Advanced QA Scenario ExerciseOther Roles

• Facilitator:– Keeps things moving; Exercise Driven by a single Analyst and

single Researcher– Goal is to complete 2-3 Complete Subtasks– Allow about 30-minutes at end of exercise for open Team-wide

discussions / observations / comments– Make sure that focus remains on analytic process, not on

technical, system-related issues

• Two Recorders:– One records questions & answers on flip chart for all to see

– Second one records other significant activities / comments / observations during exercise

– Share duties during wrap-up

• Participating Observers– Avoid attempting to redirect exercise

– Offer observations / comments / alternatives during wrap-up 18


AnalyticTask /

Scenario

Analyst

Questions

System Questions

System Answers

2 Recorders

Facilitator

Researcher

Analyst

2 Oracles


AdvancedQA System

Of the Future

AnalyticStrategy


Advanced QA Scenario ExerciseLogistics

• Nine total teams – each approximately 12-15 workshop attendees – everyone has been pre-assigned

• Three Different Scenarios each having three separate teams completing that given scenario

• Last Session on Wednesday – Each of the three teams that worked the same scenario will meet and compare / contrast their experiences

• Thursday morning there will be a Plenary Session during which each Scenario will report out what they learned.

• Assignments on Handout18


AnalyticTask /

Scenario

Analyst

Questions

System Questions

System Answers

2 Recorders

Facilitator

Researcher

Analyst

2 Oracles


AdvancedQA System

Of the Future

AnalyticStrategy


Scenario Exercise Sample

SCENARIO

You are an expert on Latin America but have focused your efforts on Cuba and Brazil. You have been asked by the Under Secretary of State for Latin American Affairs to use your familiarity with Latin culture and politics to assess the current situation in Colombia and FARC’s role in destabilizing the country. The report is due by COB tomorrow. Your time is short but you need to familiarize yourself with the issues before feeling confident that you can report on FARC’s current situation.


Analyst’s Strategy

• Example Sources that might be consulted:– Material from classified collection sources– Database of published intelligence products– Cable traffic from State Department and US Military– Open Internet Sources– Internal working aids– FBIS

• Scope of Analysis– Definition of FARC; Background– Goals of FARC– Related/Affiliated Organizations– Political Influence of FARC– US Position on FARC vis a vis FARC’s role in Columbia; vis a vis

Columbian Government attempts to control the FARC

• Nature of Final Analytic Product– Position/Point Paper with supporting documentation


Subtask #1 - Analyst

General Information About the FARC

1. What does FARC stand?

2. Where is it located?

3. What is the nature of the FARC?

4. When was the it founded?

5. How large is the organization and who are some of its members?


Subtask #1 - Researcher


1. What does FARC stand?• What does the acronym FARC stand for?

2. Where is it located?• In what countries where the FARC has members? … conducts

activities?• In what geographic regions where the FARC has members? …

conducts activities? In what departments …? In what cities … ?• In what country (geographic region, department, city) is the

largest concentration of FARC members? … of FARC associated activities?

3. What is the nature of the FARC?• What type of organization is the FARC?• What type of activities have been associated with the FARC?• What organizations supports the FARC?• What organization oppose the FARC?


Subtask #1 - Researcher


4. When was the FARC founded?• When was the FARC founded?• Why was the FARC founded?• Was the FARC a splinter group of another organization? If so,

what organization? What was the reason for the split?• Where was the FARC founded?• List the names of individuals who founded the FARC? Are any of

these individuals still active members of the FARC?

5. How large is the organization and who are some of its members?• What is the total membership of the FARC? • What is the source of this information? • What is the source date of this information?• Who are the leaders of the FARC? • What are their positions? • List the names of other members of the FARC?


Other Possible Follow-on Subtasks

• Subtask #2:– The Goals and Objectives of the FARC

• Subtask #3:– Identify funding sources for the FARC and the FARC’s links

with other organizations

• Subtask #4:– The Political / Economic / Military influence of the FARC– Columbian Government’s policy towards the FARC;

Columbian Government’s activities aimed at defeating the FARC

• Subtask #5:– US Government’s evolving position on the FARC


Scenario #1 – Group 1Point Loma 1

PARTICIPATING OBSERVERS

PLAYING

ROLES

Geoff Bransford-Koons, SAIC

Analyst: Chris Wachter, DoD

Jamie Callan, CMU ## Researcher: Dan Moldovan, LCC

Herb Gish, BBN Technologies

Oracle Analyst: Mark Mollere, USNR

Robert Hecht-Nielsen, Fair Isaac Corp

Oracle Researcher: Bjoern Aldag, Cycorp

Steve Helmreich, NMSU Facilitator: John Donelan, US Gov

Paul Kantor, Rutgers Univ. Recorder #1: Pat Schone, DoD

Liz Liddy, Syracuse Univ. Recorder #2: Mark Maybury, MITRE




PLAYING

ROLES

Teresa Buss, SAIC Analyst: Stephen Wiley, USNR

Noah Friedland, Vulcan Researcher: Kathleen McKeown, Columbia Univ.

John Gilmore, Veridian Sys.

Oracle Analyst: Robert Buelow, USNR

Jerry Hobbs, USC-ISI Oracle Researcher: Bill Ogden, NMSU

Emmanuel Roche, Teragram

Facilitator: Ellen Voorhees, NIST

Nina Wacholder, Rutgers Univ.

Recorder #1: Jean-Michel Pomarede, US Gov

Howard Wactlar, CMU Recorder #2: Dennis Lair, DoD




PLAYING

ROLES

Paulo Pinheiro da Silva, Stanford Univ.

Analyst: John Rogers, USNR

Christiane Fellbaum, Princeton Univ.

Researcher: Stefano Bertolo, Cycorp

Max Louwerse, Univ. of Memphis

Oracle Analyst: Stephen Plaisance, USNR

Teruko Mitamura, CMU Oracle Researcher: Kevin Knight, USC-ISI

Rong Tang, Univ. of Albany

Facilitator: John Prange, ARDA

Paul Thompson, Dartmouth College

Recorder #1: Steve Maiorano, US Government

Wayne Ward, Univ. of Colorado

Recorder #2: Nahum Gershon, MITRE




PLAYING

ROLES

Tim Anderson, AFRL ## Analyst: Anita Kulman, DoD

Steven Bethard, Univ. of Colorado

Researcher: Tomek Strzalkowski, Univ. of Albany

Alex Hauptmann, CMU Oracle Analyst: Donald Maixner USNR

Tanya Korelsky, CoGenTex

Oracle Researcher: Barbara Starr, SAIC

Peter LaMonica, AFRL Facilitator: Scott Mardis, MITRE

Jim Van Sciver, BBN Technologies

Recorder #1: Grace Crowder, DoD

Gina Taranto, SPAWAR Recorder #2: Robert Means, Fair Isaac




PLAYING

ROLES

Jerome Feldman, UC Berkeley

Analyst: Margaret Dillard, DoD

Syrus Nemat-Nasser, Fair Isaac

Researcher: Eric Nyberg, CMU

Kwong Bor Ng, Rutgers Univ. ##

Oracle Analyst: Michael Malone USNR

Sergei Nirenberg, UMBC Oracle Researcher: Sharon Small, Univ. of Albany

Yves Schabes, Teragram Facilitator: Carol Van Ess-Dykema, DoD

Barry Sheraw, LCC Recorder #1: Scott Miller, BBN

Recorder #2: Robert Irie, SPAWAR


Scenario #2 – Group 3Del Mar


PLAYING

ROLES

Ryan Ghiz, DoD Analyst: Carmen Vazquez, DoD

Robert Gottlieb, SPAWAR Researcher: Daniel Marcu, USC-ISI

Sanda Harabagiu, LCC Oracle Analyst: Jay Peltz, DoD

David Israel, SRI Oracle Researcher: Boris Katz, MIT

Penny Lehtola, ARDA Facilitator: Richard Tong, Tarragon

Peng Song, Rutgers Univ Recorder #1: Bob Tarr, DoD

Yiming Yang, CMU Recorder #2: Jean Scholtz, NIST:




PLAYING

ROLES

David Evans, Clairvoyance Analyst: David Lee, USNR

Richard Fikes, Stanford Univ. ##

Researcher: Ralph Weischedel, BBN Technologies

Paul Girard, SAIC Oracle Analyst: Kelcy Allwein, DIA

Rich Quadrel, PNNL Oracle Researcher: Vasileios Hatzivassiloglou, Columbia Univ.

Rion Snow, Fair Isaac Facilitator: Donna Harman, NIST

Ying Sun, Rutgers Univ. Recorder #1: Ruth Gee, US Government

Boris Yamron, Lehman College

Recorder #2: David Salak, USNR


Scenario #3 – Group 2La Jolla


PLAYING

ROLES

Jaime Carbonell, CMU Analyst: Chris Decker, US Gov.

Susan Dumais, Microsoft Research

Researcher: John Prager, IBM

Ulf Hermjakob, USC-ISI Oracle Analyst: Frank Hughes, DIA

Shailesh Kumar, Fair Isaac Oracle Researcher: Jim Cowie, NMSU

Christopher Manning, UC Berkeley

Facilitator: John Burger, MITRE

Nitya Sethuraman, Northrop Grumman IT

Recorder #1: Duncan McCarthy, NIMA

Richard Waldinger, SRI Recorder #2: Michael Raine, USNR


Scenario #3 – Group 3The Bay


PLAYING

ROLES

Benoit Lavoie, CoGenTex Analyst: Jeff Juhnke, DIA

John Lehmann, LCC Researcher: Ed Hovy, USC-ISI

Charles Messenger, AFRL Oracle Analyst: Heather Long, DIA

George Miller, Princeton Univ. ##

Oracle Researcher: Bruce Croft, UMass

Robert Rittman, Rutgers Univ.

Facilitator: Heather McCallum-Bayliss, ARDA

Bhavani Thuraisingham, NSF

Recorder #1: Mike Blair, DoD

Jan Wiebe, Univ. of Pittsburgh

Recorder #2: Beth Sundheim, SPAWAR


Breakout Locations

BY ROOM• Point Loma 1

– Group 1-1

– Group 1-3

– Group 2-1

– Group 3-1

• Point Loma 2– Group 1-2

– Group 2-2

• DelMar– Group 2-3

• LaJolla– Group 3-2

• The Bay– Group 3-3

BY GROUP• Group 1-1 Point Loma 1• Group 1-2 Point Loma 2• Group 1-3 Point Loma 1

• Group 2-1 Point Loma 1• Group 2-2 Point Loma 2• Group 2-3 DelMar

• Group 3-1 Point Loma 1• Group 3-2 LaJolla• Group 3-3 The Bay


Questions / Comments


Contact Information

Dr. John Prange, AQUAINT Program Director

• ARDA Web Pages: http://www.ic-arda.org

• Email [email protected] [email protected]

• Phones: 301-688-7092800-276-3747301-688-7410 (Fax)

• Mailing: ARDA (RA)Room 12A69 NBP#1

STE 66449800 Savage Road

Fort Meade, MD 20755-6644