April 2017 Housing Commentary - Virginia Techwoodproducts.sbio.vt.edu/housing-report/casa-2017-04a... · 2017-06-15 · In April 2017, in aggregate, monthly housing data were decidedly

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The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service

April 2017 Housing Commentary: Section I

Delton Alderman

Forest Products Marketing Unit

Forest Products Laboratory

U.S. Forest Service

Madison, WI

304.431.2734

[email protected]

2017 Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University VCE-ANR 275NP

Virginia Cooperative Extension programs and employment are open to all, regardless of age, color, disability, gender, gender identity, gender expression, national origin, political affiliation, race, religion, sexualorientation, genetic information, veteran status, or any other basis protected by law. An equal opportunity/affirmative action employer. Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, VirginiaPolytechnic Institute and State University, Virginia State University, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture cooperating. Edwin J. Jones, Director, Virginia Cooperative Extension, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg; M.Ray McKinnie, Administrator, 1890 Extension Program, Virginia State University, Petersburg.

Urs Buehlmann

Department of Sustainable Biomaterials

College of Natural Resources & Environment

Virginia Tech

Blacksburg, VA

540.231.9759

[email protected]

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Table of ContentsSlide 3: Opening Remarks

Slide 4: Housing Scorecard

Slide 5: Wood Use in Construction

Slide 7: New Housing Starts

Slide 12: Regional Housing Starts

Slide 21: New Housing Permits

Slide 24: Regional New Housing Permits

Slide 31: Housing Under Construction

Slide 33: Regional Under Construction

Slide 38: Housing Completions

Slide 41: Regional Housing Completions

Slide 46: New Single-Family House Sales

Slide 49: New Sales-Population Ratio

Slide 50: Regional SF House Sales & Price

Slide 59: Construction Spending

Slide 62: Construction Spending Shares

Slide 69: Existing House Sales

Slide 70: Existing Sales by Price & Region

Slide 73: First-Time Purchasers

Slide 75: Affordability

Slide 77: Summary

Slide 78: Virginia Tech Disclaimer

Slide 79: USDA Disclaimer

This report is a free monthly service of Virginia Tech. Past issues can be found at:

http://woodproducts.sbio.vt.edu/housing-report. To request the report, please email: [email protected]

http://woodproducts.sbio.vt.edu/housing-report/

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Opening Remarks

In April 2017, in aggregate, monthly housing data were decidedly negative on a month-over-

month basis. Total and single-family (SF) permits and starts declined; yet SF starts increased. New

SF and existing sales, and completions also decreased. Observing unadjusted data; permits, starts,

and new SF sales were similar to April 2016. In fact, SF starts and new SF unadjusted sales were

greater than April 2016. New SF house construction spending increased minimally month-over-

month. Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors. The June 13th Atlanta Fed GDPNow™

model projects aggregate residential investment spending to increase at a 5.8 percent seasonally

adjusted annual rate for Quarter 2; both new residential investment and improvements spending

were projected to increase (7.6 and 3.0 percent, respectively). All declined from Q1’s estimate.1

“Two consecutive months of weaker existing home sales isn't cause for panic, but it does suggest

that forecasts calling for a robust housing market may have been too optimistic. It appears that the

combination of extraordinarily low inventory and home price appreciation that continues to outpace

wage growth is slowing down sales, especially in some of the country's higher priced markets.

Despite inventory constraints continuing to fuel price gains and curb affordability, demand is

healthy and relatively low mortgage rates have enabled more buyers to enter the market. While

there is some uncertainty over the possibility of another rate hike and its impact on affordability, the

housing market remains on solid footing supported by a firm labor market and rising wages.”2 –

Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President and Peter Muoio, Chief Economist, Ten-X.

This month’s commentary also contains applicable housing data; new SF- and multifamily and

existing housing data; economic information; and demographics. Section I contains data and

commentary and Section II includes Federal Reserve analysis; private indicators; and demographic

commentary. We hope you find this commentary beneficial.

Sources: 1 https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/Documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/GDPTrackingModelDataAndForecasts.xlsx; 6/13/17; 2 https://www.housingwire.com/articles/40316-ten-x-existing-home-sales-to-drop-in-may?eid=311702681&bid=1772526; 6/2/17

Return TOCSource: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction; 1National Association of Realtors® (NAR®)

M/M Y/Y

Housing Starts 2.6% ∆ 0.7%

Single-Family Starts ∆ 0.4% ∆ 8.9%

Housing Permits 2.5% ∆ 5.7%

Single-Family Permits 4.5% ∆ 6.2%

Housing Completions 8.6% ∆ 15.1%

New Single-Family House Sales 11.4% ∆ 0.5%

Private Residential Construction Spending 0.7% ∆ 16.0%

Single-FamilyConstruction Spending ∆ 0.8% ∆ 7.7%

Existing House Sales1 2.3% ∆ 1.6%

M/M = month-over-month; Y/Y = year-over-year; NC = no change

April 2017 Housing Scorecard

∆

∆

∆

∆

∆

∆

∆

Return TOCSource: U.S. Forest Service. Howard, J. and D. McKeever. 2015. U.S. Forest Products Annual Market Review and Prospects, 2010-2015

New Construction’s Percentage of Wood Products Consumption

22%

78%

Non-structural panels:

New Housing

Other markets

29%

71%

All Sawnwood:

New housing

Other markets

36%64%

Structural panels:

New housing

Other markets

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Repair and Remodeling’s Percentage of Wood Products Consumption

Source: U.S. Forest Service. Howard, J. and D. McKeever. 2015. U.S. Forest Products Annual Market Review and Prospects, 2010-2015

14%

86%

Non-structural panels:

Remodeling

Other markets

23%

77%

All Sawnwood:

Remodeling

Other markets

22%

78%

Structural panels:

Remodeling

Other markets

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New Housing Starts

* All start data are presented at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

** US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation

((Total starts – (SF + 5 unit MF)).

Total Starts* SF Starts MF 2-4 Starts** MF ≥5 Starts

April 1,172,000 835,000 9,000 328,000

March 1,203,000 832,000 8,000 363,000

2016 1,164,000 767,000 13,000 384,000

M/M change -2.6% 0.4% 12.5% -9.6%

Y/Y change 0.7% 8.9% -30.8% -14.6%

Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 5/16/17

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Total Housing Starts

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

SF Starts 2-4 MF Starts ≥5 MF Starts

SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands

Total starts 58-year average: 1,439 mm units

SF starts 58-year average: 1,022 mm units

MF starts 53-year average: 420 m units

Total Starts

1,172m units

Total SF: 835m units

Total MF (2-4): 9m units

Total MF (≥ 5): 328m units


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New SF Starts

Sources: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/newressales.xls and The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; 5/16/17

New SF starts adjusted for the US population

From January 1959 to July 2007, the long-term ratio of new SF starts to the total US non-

institutionalized population was 0.0105; in April 2017 it was 0.0033 – no change from February. The

long-term ratio of non-institutionalized population, aged 20 to 54 is 0.0135; in April 2017 it was 0.0057

– no change from March. From a population viewpoint, construction is less than what is necessary for

changes in population (i.e., under-building).

0.0000

0.0020

0.0040

0.0060

0.0080

0.0100

0.0120

0.0140

0.0160

0.0180

0.0200

Ratio: SF Housing Starts/Civilian Noninstitutional Population

Ratio: SF Housing Starts/Civilian Noninstitutional Population (20-54)

20 to 54 year old classification: 5/16/17 ratio:

0.0057

Total non-institutionalized/Start ratio: 1/1/59 to 7/1/07: 0.0105

20 to 54 population/SF starts: 1/1/59 to 7/1/07 ratio: 0.0135

Total: 5/16/17 ratio: 0.0033

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Total Housing Starts: Six-Month Average

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Total Starts Total Starts-6-mo. Ave. Total Starts-6-mo. percentage change

SAAR; in thousands Percent changeTotal Starts


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SF Housing Starts: Six-Month Average

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

SF Starts SF Starts-6-mo. Ave. SF Starts-6-mo. percentage change

SAAR; in thousands Percent changeSF Starts


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New Housing Starts by Region

All data are SAAR; NE = Northeast and MW = Midwest.

** US DOC does not report multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation (Total starts – SF starts).

NE Total NE SF NE MF**

April 79,000 46,000 33,000

March 126,000 65,000 61,000

2016 120,000 55,000 65,000

M/M change -37.3% -29.2% -45.9%

Y/Y change -34.2% -16.4% -49.2%

MW Total MW SF MW MF

April 206,000 129,000 77,000

March 146,000 108,000 38,000

2016 204,000 130,000 74,000

M/M change 41.1% 19.4% 102.6%

Y/Y change 1.0% -0.8% 4.1%


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New Housing Starts by Region

All data are SAAR; S = South and W = West.

** US DOC does not report multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation (Total starts – SF starts).

S Total S SF S MF**

April 592,000 456,000 136,000

March 651,000 472,000 179,000

2016 601,000 425,000 176,000

M/M change -9.1% -3.4% -24.0%

Y/Y change -1.5% 7.3% -22.7%

W Total W SF W MF

April 295,000 204,000 91,000

March 280,000 187,000 93,000

2016 239,000 157,000 82,000

M/M change 5.4% 9.1% -2.2%

Y/Y change 23.4% 29.9% 11.0%


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Total Housing Starts by Region

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Total NE Starts Total MW Starts Total S Starts Total W Starts

SAAR; in thousands

Regional Starts

Total NE: 79m units

Total MW: 206m units

Total S: 592m units

Total W: 295m units


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SF Housing Starts by Region

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

NE SF Starts MW SF Starts S SF Starts W SF Starts

SAAR; in thousands

SF Starts

Total NE: 46m units


Total S: 456m units

Total W: 204m units


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Nominal & SAAR SF Starts SF Housing Starts

Nominal and Adjusted New SF Monthly Starts

Presented above is nominal (non-adjusted) new SF start data contrasted against SAAR data.

The apparent expansion factor “… is the ratio of the unadjusted number of houses started in the US to

the seasonally adjusted number of houses started in the US (i.e., to the sum of the seasonally adjusted

values for the four regions).” – U.S. DOC-Construction

760731 743 714

786

765 771

841

748

767732

770769

727

783

871

823 808 815

877

832

835

10.6 11.0 11.4 12.1 13.8 15.2 15.4 14.512.0 10.6 10.4 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.6 11.9 13.6 15.3 15.3

14.9 11.9 10.7

72

66

65

5957

5050

58

62

73 70 75 73

67

67

73

61

53 53

59

70

78

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul 2016 Sep 2016 Nov 2016 Jan 2017 Mar 2017

New SF Starts (adj) Apparent Expansion Factor New SF Starts (non-adj)

LHS: SAAR; in thousands RHS: Non-adjusted; in thousands

April 2016 and April 2017


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MF Housing Starts by Region

0

50

100

150

200

250

NE MF Starts MW MF Starts S MF Starts W MF Starts

SAAR; in thousands

MF Starts

Total NE: 33m units

Total MW: 77m units

Total S: 136m units

Total W: 91m units


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Housing Starts by Percent

78.5%

71.2%

21.5%

28.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Single-Family Starts - % Multi-Family Starts - %


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Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. SF Housing Starts

Return to TOCSources: Association of American Railroads (AAR), Rail Time Indicators report 5/5/17; U.S. DOC-Construction; 5/16/17

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) SF Starts

“Data are average weekly originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, and do not include intermodal.”

– AAR

RHS: SF StartsLHS: Lumber shipments in thousands

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Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. SF Housing Starts: 6-month Offset

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In this graph, January 2007 lumber shipments are contrasted with July 2007 SF starts, and continuing

through April 2017 SF starts. The purpose is to discover if lumber shipments relate to future single-family

starts. Also, it is realized that lumber and wood products are trucked; however, to our knowledge

comprehensive trucking data is not available.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) SF Starts (6-mo. offset)

“Data are average weekly originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, and do not include intermodal.” –AAR

LHS: Lumber shipments in thousands RHS: SF Starts

Sources: Association of American Railroads (AAR), Rail Time Indicators report 5/5/17; U.S. DOC-Construction; 5/16/17

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New Housing Permits

* All permit data are presented at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

Total

Permits*

SF

Permits

MF 2-4 unit

Permits

MF ≥ 5 unit

Permits

April 1,229,000 789,000 37,000 403,000

March 1,260,000 826,000 37,000 397,000

2016 1,163,000 743,000 33,000 387,000

M/M change -2.5% -4.5% 0.0% 1.5%

Y/Y change 5.7% 6.2% 12.1% 4.1%


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Total New Housing Permits

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

SF Permits 2-4 MF Permits ≥5 MF Permits

SAAR; in thousands

Total Permits

1,229m units





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Nominal & SAAR SF Permits

Nominal and Adjusted New SF Monthly Permits

Presented above is nominal (non-adjusted) new SF start data contrasted against SAAR data.

The apparent expansion factor “…is the ratio of the unadjusted number of houses started in the US to

the seasonally adjusted number of houses started in the US (i.e., to the sum of the seasonally adjusted


694710 708 725 735 738 733 737 731 743 735 743

718743 749

779 786

830806

834 826 789

10.5 10.8 11.4 12.0 12.2 14.8 14.316.1

13.811.0 10.8 10.6 9.6

12.2 10.5 12.3 12.814.8 14.5 15.6

14.3 10.2

66

62 60 60

50 51

46

53

6868

70 75

61

71

63 62 56 56

54

58

77

69

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jul

2015

Aug

2015

Sep

2015

Oct

2015

Nov

2015

Dec

2015

Jan

2016

Feb

2016

Mar

2016

Apr

2016

May

2016

Jun

2016

Jul

2016

Aug

2016

Sep

2016

Oct

2016

Nov

2016

Dec

2016

Jan

2017

Feb

2017

Mar

2017

Apr

2017

New SF Permits (adj) Apparent Expansion Factor New SF Permits (non-adj)

April 2016 and April 2017

LHS: SAAR; in thousands RHS: Non-adjusted; in thousands


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New Housing Permits by Region

MW Total* MW SF MW MF**

April 194,000 124,000 70,000

March 192,000 128,000 64,000

2016 191,000 109,000 82,000

M/M change 1.0% -3.1% 9.4%

Y/Y change 1.6% 13.8% -14.6%

NE Total* NE SF NE MF**

April 122,000 52,000 70,000

March 136,000 53,000 83,000

2016 108,000 56,000 52,000

M/M change -10.3% -1.9% -15.7%

Y/Y change 13.0% -7.1% 34.6%


• All data are SAAR

• ** US DOC does not report multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation (Total starts – SF starts).

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New Housing Permits by Region

S Total* S SF S MF**

April 577,000 420,000 157,000

March 623,000 456,000 167,000

2016 580,000 400,000 180,000

M/M change -7.4% -7.9% -6.0%

Y/Y change -0.5% 5.0% -12.8%

W Total* W SF W MF**

April 336,000 193,000 143,000

March 309,000 189,000 120,000

2016 284,000 178,000 106,000

M/M change 8.7% 2.1% 19.2%

Y/Y change 18.3% 8.4% 34.9%


• All data are SAAR

• ** US DOC does not report multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation (Total starts – SF starts).

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Total Housing Permits by Region

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Total NE Permits Total MW Permits Total S Permits Total W Permits

SAAR; in thousands

Regional Permits

Total NE: 122m units


Total S: 577m units

Total W: 336m units


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SF Housing Permits by Region

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

NE SF Permits MW SF Permits S SF Permits W SF Permits

SAAR; in thousands

SF Permits

Total NE: 52m units


Total S: 420m units

Total W: 193m units


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MF Housing Permits by Region

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

NE MF Permits MW MF Permits S MF Permits W MF Permits

SAAR; in thousands MF Permits

Total NE: 70m units

Total MW: 70m units

Total S: 157m units

Total W: 143m units


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Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. SF Housing Permits

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0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) SF Permits

“Data are average weekly originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, and do not include intermodal.”

– AAR

RHS: SF PermitsLHS: Lumber shipments in thousands


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Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. SF Housing Permits: 3-month Offset

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In this graph, January 2007 lumber shipments are contrasted with April 2007 SF permits, continuing

through April 2017. The purpose is to discover if lumber shipments relate to future single-family permits.

Also, it is realized that lumber and wood products are trucked; however, to our knowledge comprehensive

trucking data is not available.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) SF Permits (3-mo. offset)


LHS: Lumber shipments in thousands RHS: SF Permits


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New Housing Under Construction

All housing under construction data are presented at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

** US DOC does not report 2-4 multifamily units under construction directly, this is an estimation

((Total under construction – (SF + 5 unit MF)).

Total Under

Construction*

SF Under

Construction

MF 2-4 unit** Under

Construction

MF ≥ 5 unit

Under

Construction

April 1,074,000 457,000 9,000 608,000

March 1,074,000 454,000 11,000 609,000

2016 996,000 429,000 10,000 557,000

M/M change 0.0% 0.7% -18.2% -0.2%

Y/Y change 7.8% 6.5% -10.0% 9.2%


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Total Housing Under Construction

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

SF Under Construction 2-4 MF Under Construction ≥5 MF Under Construction

SAAR; in thousands

Total Housing

Under Construction

1,074m units





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New Housing Under Constructionby Region


** US DOC does not report multifamily units under construction directly, this is an estimation

(Total under construction – SF under construction).


April 192,000 52,000 140,000

March 193,000 53,000 140,000

2016 187,000 49,000 138,000

M/M change -0.5% -1.9% 0.0%

Y/Y change 2.7% 6.1% 1.4%


April 148,000 74,000 74,000

March 147,000 73,000 74,000

2016 135,000 74,000 61,000

M/M change 0.7% 1.4% 0.0%

Y/Y change 9.6% 0.0% 21.3%


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New Housing Under Constructionby Region


** US DOC does not report multifamily units under construction directly, this is an estimation

(Total under construction – SF under construction).

S Total S SF S MF**

April 448,000 219,000 229,000

March 451,000 217,000 234,000

2016 431,000 211,000 220,000

M/M change -0.7% 0.9% -2.1%

Y/Y change 3.9% 3.8% 4.1%

W Total W SF W MF

April 286,000 112,000 174,000

March 283,000 111,000 172,000

2016 243,000 95,000 148,000

M/M change 1.1% 0.9% 1.2%

Y/Y change 17.7% 17.9% 17.6%


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Total Housing Under Construction by Region

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Total NE Under Construction Total MW Under Construction Total S Under Construction Total W Under Construction

SAAR; in thousands

Regional Housing

Under Construction



Total S: 448m units

Total W: 286m units


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SF Housing Under Construction by Region

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

NE SF Under Construction MW SF Under Construction S SF Under Construction W SF Under Construction

SAAR; in thousands

SF Housing

Under Construction

Total NE: 52m units

Total MW: 74m units

Total S: 219m units

Total W: 112m units


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MF Housing Under Construction by Region

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

NE MF Under Construction MW MF Under Construction S MF Under Construction W MF Under Construction

SAAR; in thousandsMF Housing

Under Construction


Total MW: 74m units

Total S: 229m units

Total W: 174m units


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New Housing Completions

All completion data are presented at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

** US DOC does not report multifamily completions directly, this is an estimation ((Total completions – (SF + 5 unit MF)).

Total

Completions*

SF

Completions

MF 2-4 unit**

Completions

MF ≥ 5 unit

Completions

April 1,106,000 784,000 23,000 299,000

March 1,210,000 821,000 16,000 373,000

2016 961,000 712,000 9,000 240,000

M/M change -8.6% -4.5% 43.8% -19.8%

Y/Y change 15.1% 10.1% 155.6% 24.6%


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Total Housing Completions by Region


April 84,000 62,000 22,000

March 115,000 62,000 44,300

2016 85,000 56,000 29,000

M/M change -27.0% 0.0% -50.3%

Y/Y change -1.2% 10.7% -24.1%


April 186,000 127,000 59,000

March 187,000 134,000 53,000

2016 149,000 117,000 32,000

M/M change -0.5% -5.2% 11.3%

Y/Y change 24.8% 8.5% 84.4%All data are SAAR; NE = Northeast and MW = West.

** US DOC does not report multi-family completions directly, this is an estimation (Total completions – SF completions).


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** US DOC does not report multi-family completions directly, this is an estimation (Total completions – SF completions).

Total Housing Completions by Region

S Total S SF S MF**

April 596,000 419,000 177,000

March 636,000 455,000 181,000

2016 508,000 387,000 121,000

M/M change -6.3% -7.9% -2.2%

Y/Y change 17.3% 8.3% 46.3%

W Total W SF W MF

April 240,000 176,000 64,000

March 272,000 170,000 102,000

2016 219,000 152,000 67,000

M/M change -11.8% 3.5% -37.3%

Y/Y change 9.6% 15.8% -4.5%


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Total Housing Completions

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Total SF Completions Total 2-4 MF Completions Total ≥ 5 MF Completions

SAAR; in thousands

Total Housing

Completions

1,106m units





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New Housing Completions by Region


** US DOC does not report multifamily completions directly, this is an estimation (Total completions – SF completions).

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Total NE Completions Total MW Completions Total S Completions Total W Completions

SAAR; in thousands

Regional Housing

Completions

Total NE: 84m units


Total S: 596m units

Total W: 240m units


Return TOC

SF Housing Completions by Region

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

NE SF Completions MW SF Completions S SF Completions W SF Completions

SAAR; in thousands

SF Housing

Completions

Total NE: 62m units


Total S: 419m units

Total W: 176m units


Return TOC

MF Housing Completions by Region

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

NE MF Completions MW MF Completions S MF Completions W MF Completions

SAAR; in thousandsMF Housing

Completions

Total NE: 22m units

Total MW: 59m units

Total S: 177m units

Total W: 64m units


Return TOC

New SF Houses Completed: 2016

“Of the 738,000 single-family homes completed in 2016:

• 686,000 had air-conditioning.

• 71,000 had two bedrooms or less and 336,000 had four bedrooms or more.

• 25,000 had one and one-half bathrooms or less and 273,000 homes had

three or more bathrooms.

• 178,000 had stucco as the primary exterior wall material.

• 200,000 had a full or partial basement.

• 61,000 had concrete framing.

The median size of a completed single-family house was 2,422 square feet.”

Source: https://www.census.gov/construction/chars/highlights.html; 6/1/17

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New Single-Family House Sales

* All sales data are presented at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) 1.

Source: 1http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf; 5/23/17; 2 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/new-home-sales; 5/25/17

New SF sales were substantially more than the consensus forecast (610m)2. The past three month’s

new SF sales data were revised upward:

January initial: 585 m revised to 599 m;

February initial: 587 m revised to 607 m;

March initial: 621m revised to 642 m.

New SF

Sales*

Median

Price

Mean

Price

Month's

Supply

April 569,000 $309,200 $368,300 5.7

March 642,000 $318,700 $385,400 4.9

2016 566,000 $292,700 $334,700 5.1

M/M change -11.4% -3.0% -4.4% 16.3%

Y/Y change 0.5% 7.6% 8.1% 11.8%

Return TOC

New SF House Sales


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan

2017

Feb

2017

Mar

2017

Apr

2017

Total SF Sales

SAAR; in thousands

1963-2016 average: 650,963 units

April 2017: 621,000

1963-2000 average: 633,895 units

Return TOC

Nominal vs. SAAR New SF House Sales

Nominal and Adjusted New SF Monthly Sales

Presented above is nominal (non-adjusted) new SF sales data contrasted against SAAR data.

The apparent expansion factor “…is the ratio of the unadjusted number of houses sold in the US to

the seasonally adjusted number of houses sold in the US (i.e., to the sum of the seasonally adjusted


498 505

457

478

508

538 520 525 533

566 560 559

627

567570

577

579

548

599607

642

569

11.6 12.3 13.1 12.3 14.1 14.2 13.3 11.7 10.7 10.3 10.6 11.2 11.6 12.3 13.0 12.5

14.514.1 13.3 12.1 10.5 10.5

43

41

35

3936

38 39

45

50

55 53

50

54

4644

46

40 39

45

50

61

54

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

New SF sales (adj) Apparent Expansion Factor New SF sales (non-adj)

LHS: Nominal & Expansion Factors Nominal & SF data, in thousands RHS: New SF SAAR

Contrast of April 2016 and April 2017


Return TOC

New SF House Sales

Sources: http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/xls/newressales.xls and The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; 5/23/17

New SF sales adjusted for the US population

From January 1963 to April 2007, the long-term ratio of new house sales to the total US non-

institutionalized population was 0.0037; in April 2017 it was 0.0022 – a decrease from March (0.0025).

The non-institutionalized population, aged 20 to 54 long-term ratio is 0.0062; in April 2017 it was

0.0039 – a decrease from March (0.0044). All are non-adjusted data. From a population viewpoint,

construction is less than what is necessary for changes in population (i.e., under-building).

0.000

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

0.006

0.007

0.008

0.009

0.010

0.011

Ratio of New SF Sales/Civilian Noninstitutional Population Ratio of New SF Sales/Civilian Noninstitutional Population (20-54)

20 to 54 year old population/New SF sales: 1/1/63 to 12/31/07 ratio: 0.0037

Total US non-institutionalized population/new SF sales:

1/1/63 to 12/31/07 ratio: 0.0062

20 to 54: 4/25/17 ratio:

0.0022

All new SF sales: 5/25/17 ratio: 0.0039

Return TOC

New SF House Sales by Region and Price Category

All data are SAAR. 1 Houses for which sales price were not reported have been distributed proportionally to those for which sales price was reported; 2 Detail may not add to total because of rounding.

NE SF Sales MW SF Sales S SF Sales W SF Sales

April 37,000 73,000 333,000 126,000

March 40,000 84,000 347,000 171,000

2016 39,000 61,000 320,000 146,000

M/M change -7.5% -13.1% -4.0% -26.3%

Y/Y change -5.1% 19.7% 4.1% -13.7%

≤ $150m

$150 -

$199.9m

$200 -

299.9m

$300 -

$399.9m

$400 -

$499.9m

$500 -

$749.9m ≥ $750m

April1,2 1,000 5,000 21,000 11,000 9,000 4,000 2,000

March 3,000 6,000 18,000 15,000 8,000 8,000 3,000

2016 2,000 8,000 14,000 15,000 7,000 7,000 3,000

M/M change -66.7% -16.7% 16.7% -26.7% 12.5% -50.0% -33.3%

Y/Y change -50.0% -37.5% 50.0% -26.7% 28.6% -42.9% -33.3%


Return TOC

New SF House Sales by Region

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

NE SF Sales MW SF Sales S SF Sales W SF Sales

SAAR; in thousands

New SF Sales

Total NE: 37m units

Total MW: 73m units

Total S: 333m units

Total W: 126m units


Return TOC

New SF House Sales by Price Category

161

130

79

73

65

30

23 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

< $150 $150-$199.9 $200-299.9 $300-$399.9 $400-$499.9 $500-$749.9 > $750

2016 Total New SF Sales*: 561 m units

2002-2016; in thousands, and thousands of dollars; SAAR

* Sales tallied by price category.


Return TOC

New SF House Sales1,000 , 2%

5,000 , 9%

21,000 , 40%

11,000 , 21%

9,000 , 17%

4,000 , 7%

2,000 , 4%April New SF Sales

≤ $150m $150-$199.9m $200-299.9m $300-$399.9m $400-$499.9m $500-$749.9m ≥ $750m


Return TOC

New SF House Sales

New SF Sales: 2002 – April 2017

The sales share of $400 thousand plus SF houses is presented above. Since the beginning of 2012,

the upper priced houses have and are garnering a greater percentage of sales. The wider the spread,

the more high-end luxury homes were sold. Several reasons are offered by industry analysts; 1)

builders can realize a profit on higher priced houses; 2) historically low interest rates have

indirectly resulted in increasing house prices; and 3) purchasers of upper end houses fared better

financially coming out of the Great Recession.

92.4%

71.3%

7.6%

28.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

% of Sales: < $400m % of Sales: > $400m


Return TOC

Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. New SF House Sales

Return to TOC

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) New SF Sales


RHS: SF Salesin thousandsLHS: Lumber shipments


Return TOC

Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. New SF House Sales: 1-year offset

Return to TOC

In this graph, initially January 2007 lumber shipments are contrasted with January 2008 new SF sales

through April 2017 new SF sales. The purpose is to discover if lumber shipments relate to future new SF

house sales. Also, it is realized that lumber and wood products are trucked; however, to our knowledge

comprehensive trucking data is not available.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) New SF Sales (1-yr. offset)

LHS: Lumber shipments in thousands RHS: SF Sales



Return TOC

New SF Houses Sold: 2016

“Of the 561,000 single-family homes sold in 2016:

• 500,000 were detached homes and 61,000 were attached homes.

• 395,000 were in a community with a homeowners’ association.

• 380,000 had a 2-car garage.

• 129,000 had brick as the primary exterior wall material.

• 396,000 were paid for using conventional financing and 29,000 were paid

for in cash.

The median sales price of new single-family homes sold in 2016 was

$316,200, while the average sales price was $372,500.

The median size of a new single-family home sold was 2,497 square feet.” –

US Census-Construction

Source: https://www.census.gov/construction/chars/highlights.html; 6/1/17

Return TOC

New SF House Sales

Price Predicaments

Even as the mortgage credit box expands, input costs on labor and materials, and interest rates put tricky balances at risk.

“Cash reigns as king in resales of homes. More than a quarter (27%) of existing home sales are all-

cash, a reflection of two housing economic phenomena ….

But among new home sales, cash is taking an ever lower share of the total annual sales tally. This

is a sign of housing's continued healing, and that builders are increasingly effective in helping get

their buyers into mortgages to help them finance their homes.

… in the first quarter 2017, all-cash purchases represented less than 5% of the 150,000 new homes

sold during the period. The fact that conventional loans accounted for 108,000 of the 150,000 total

new-home sales transactions in Q1 2017, or very nearly three out of four new home sales, indicates

that conforming mortgages increasingly are meeting a need in the market among move-up and

second-time move-up buyers.” – John McManus, Editorial and Digital Content Director, Builder,

Hanley Wood

Source: http://www.builderonline.com/money/price-predicaments_o; 5/2/17

Return TOC

April 2017 Construction Spending

* Millions** The US DOC does not report improvement spending directly, this is a monthly estimation for 2017:

((Total Private Spending – (SF spending + MF spending)).

All data are SAARs and reported in nominal US$.

Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/privsa.pdf; 6/1/17

Total Private

Residential*SF MF Improvement**

April $516,653 $262,143 $64,862 $189,648

March $520,363 $260,089 $65,010 $195,264

2016 $445,499 $243,301 $58,898 $143,300

M/M change -0.7% 0.8% -0.2% -2.9%

Y/Y change 16.0% 7.7% 10.1% 32.3%

Return TOC

Total Construction Spending (nominal): 1993 – April 2017

Reported in nominal US$.

The US DOC does not report improvement spending directly, this is a monthly estimation for 2017.


64,862

189,648

262,143

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

Total Residential Spending (nominal) SF Spending (nominal) MF Spending (nominal) Remodeling Spending (nominal)

Total Private Nominal Construction Spending: $516,653 bil

SAAR; in millions of nominal US dollars

Return TOC

Total Construction Spending (adjusted): 1993-2017*

Reported in adjusted US$: 1993 – 2016 (adjusted for inflation, BEA Table 1.1.9); *January-April 2017 reported in nominal US$.


262,143

189,648

64,862$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

Total Residential Spending (adj.) SF Spending (adj.) MF Spending (adj.) Remodeling Spending (adj.)

SAAR; in millions of US dollars (adj.)

Total Private Adjusted 1993 – 2017 Construction Spending

Return TOC

Construction Spending Shares: 1993 to April 2017

Total Residential Spending: 1993 through 2006

SF spending average: 69.2 %

MF spending average: 7.5 %;

Residential remodeling (RR) spending average: 23.3 % (SAAR).

Note: 1993 to 2016 (adjusted for inflation, BEA Table 1.1.9); January-April 2017 reported in nominal US$.

Source: http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/privsa.pdf and http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm; 6/1/17

67.3

50.7

5.2

12.6

27.5

36.7

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

SF, MF, & RR: Percent of Total Residential Spending (adj.)

SF % MF % RR %

Return TOC

Construction Spending: Percentage Change, 1993 to April 2017

Residential Construction Spending: Percentage Change, 1993 to April 2017

Presented above is the percentage change of inflation adjusted Y/Y construction spending (1993-

2016). Since mid-2015 – SF, MF, and RR spending are in an apparent decreasing trend. The

questions are: Is construction spending normalizing? Or is it turning over?

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

SF Spending: Y/Y %-change MF Spending: Y/Y %-change Remodeling Spending: Y/Y %-change


Return TOC

Completed SF Houses, Median & Mean Square Feet: 1978-2016

Completed SF Houses

Presented above is the square footage (Sq Ft) of completed SF houses from January 1978 to

December 2016. Since 2013, median housing size has declined, and more rapidly since 2015. The

average Sq Ft began its decline in 2014.

Source: https://www.census.gov/construction/chars/; 6/1/17

1,755

2,626

1,655

2,426

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Average Sq Ft Median Sq Ft

Return TOC

Completed SF Houses, Nominal Price per Median & Mean Square Foot: 1978-2016

Completed SF Houses, Nominal Price per Median & Mean Square Foot

The average nominal price per square foot (Sq Ft) was $36 in 1978, rising to $142 by the end of

2016. The nominal price per median SQ FT followed a comparable trajectory.

Source: https://www.census.gov/construction/chars/; 6/1/17

$36

$142

$34

$130

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

US Average $/Sq FT (nominal) US Median $/Sq FT (nominal)

Return TOC

Completed SF Houses, Adjusted Price per Median & Mean Square Foot: 1978-2016

Completed SF Houses, Adjusted Price per Median & Mean Square Foot

The average inflation adjusted price per Sq Ft was $135 in 1978, increasing to $145 by the end of

2016. The inflation adjusted price per median SQ FT followed a comparable trajectory; $127 to

$134.

Data were adjusted using the deflator values from, “Table 1.1.9. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross

Domestic Product.” – Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Source: https://www.census.gov/construction/chars/ & https://www.bea.gov; 6/1/17

$135$145

$127 $134

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

US Average $/Sq FT (adjusted) US Median $/Sq FT (adjusted)

Return TOC

Remodeling

Remodeling Activity Is Continuing Its Five-Year Growth Climb

“Pro-worthy remodeling activity nationwide recorded its 20th straight quarter of growth

during 2017’s first three months and looks set to keep rising, albeit a bit more slowly, through

2020… . The index hit a new high of 107.3, which means remodeling-friendly conditions are

7.3% better than they were during the previous peak in spring 2007 and are 4.5% ahead of

where the index was in 2016’s first quarter. And unlike past years, in 2017 all 381

Metropolitan Statistical Areas across the country can expect to see year-over-year growth in

remodeling and replacement projects.

The current strength of the remodeling market can be attributed primarily to economics – low

mortgage rates, strong existing home sales, the bull stock market run, good job gains, and

now more recently, wage gains. Yet, as the economic cycle matures over the next few years,

rates increase and full employment translates to less robust job growth over time,

demographic trends will play a bigger role in driving demand for remodeling. Baby-boomers

will continue retiring and aging in place as they have been, and Millennials will be

increasingly maturing in their life stage – jobs, dating, marrying (or no not marrying), buying

a home, and choosing to remodel that home. And, with housing affordability an issue in

many markets across the country, Millennials will be more inclined to purchase older, more-

affordable existing homes that will necessitate renovations. Demographics will matter

greatly to remodeling over the next few years as the economic cycle matures.” – Mark Boud,

Chief Economist, Metrostudy

Source: http://www.metrostudy.com/remodeling-activity-continuing-five-year-growth-climb-latest-rri-finds; 5/22/17

Return TOC

Remodeling

Source: http://www.metrostudy.com/remodeling-activity-continuing-five-year-growth-climb-latest-rri-finds; 5/22/17

Source: Metrostudy

Return TOC

Existing House Sales

Source: NAR® https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales; 5/24/17

National Association of Realtors (NAR®)

April 2017 sales: 5.570 million (SAAR)

* All sales data: SAAR

Existing

Sales*Median

Price

Mean

PriceMonth's

Supply

April 5,570,000 $244,800 $287,500 4.2

March 5,700,000 $236,600 $278,700 3.8

2016 5,480,000 $230,900 $273,600 4.6

M/M change -2.3% 3.5% 3.2% 10.5%

Y/Y change 1.6% 6.0% 5.1% -8.7%

Return TOC

Existing House Sales

NE Sales MW Sales S Sales W Sales

April 730,000 1,360,000 2,300,000 1,180,000

March 750,000 1,310,000 2,420,000 1,220,000

2016 750,000 1,370,000 2,220,000 1,140,000

M/M change -2.7% 3.8% -5.0% -3.3%

Y/Y change -2.7% -0.7% 3.6% 3.5%


Distressed

House SalesForeclosures

Short-

Sales

All-Cash

Sales

Individual Investor

Purchases*

Cash

Purchsase

April 5% 3% 2% 21% 15% 57%

March 6% 5% 1% 23% 15% 63%

2016 7% 5% 2% 24% 13% 59%* Next column reports percentage of cash purchases.

Return TOC

Total Existing House Sales

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

U.S. NE MW S W

SAAR; in thousands


Return TOC

Changes in Existing House Sales

Percent Change in Sales From a Year Ago by Price Range


Return TOC

First-Time Purchasers

“The First-Time Buyer Mortgage Risk Index (FBMRI) for Agency purchase loans stood at

16.1 percent in February, a series high and up 0.4 ppt. from February 2016. The Agency

FBMRI is 6.4 ppts. higher than the repeat buyer MRI. The gap has widened 0.8 ppt. from a

year earlier. Maintaining a series high, FHA’s First-Time Buyer NMRI stood at 25.1 percent

in February, up 0.9 ppt. from a year earlier and up 1.0 ppt. from two years earlier (before

FHA’s mortgage insurance premium cut).”

“The on-going housing boom is built on the backs of first-time buyers. These buyers are

using government guaranteed financing to take on ever greater levels of leverage to chase

rapidly increasing entry-level home prices, a trend that is unsustainable over the long term.”

– Edward Pinto, Codirector of the American Enterprise Institute’s International Center on

Housing Risk

“Down payment requirements don’t pose the hurdle to homeownership as commonly

believed. Helped in part by various programs from State Housing Finance Agencies, 21

percent of first-time buyer purchases in February did not require any down payment.” –

Tobias Peter, Senior Research Analyst, AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk

American Enterprise Institute International Center on Housing Risk

National Association of Realtors (NAR®)

34% of sales in April 2017 – 32% in March 2017 and 32% in April 2016

Sources: https://www.nar.realtor/news-releases/2017/05/existing-home-sales-slip-23-percent-in-april-days-on-market-falls-to-under-a-month, 5/24/17;

http://www.housingrisk.org/, 5/26/17

Return TOC

First-Time PurchasersUrban Institute

“In February 2017, the first-time homebuyer share of GSE purchase loans rose for the second

consecutive month to 47.1 percent, the highest level in recent history. The FHA, which has always

been more focused on first-time homebuyers, with its first-time homebuyer share hovering around

80 percent, stood at 82.3 percent in February 2017, down from the peak of 83.3 percent in May

2016. The bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated in February 2016, the average

first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan and

have a lower credit score and higher LTV and DTI, thus requiring a higher interest rate.” – Laurie

Goodman, et al., Co-director, Housing Finance Policy Center

Source: http://www.urban.org/research/publication/housing-finance-glance-monthly-chartbook-may-2017; 6/6/17

Return TOC

Housing Affordability

Urban Institute

“Home prices are still very affordable by historic standards, despite increases over the last

four years and the recent interest rate hike. Even if interest rates rise to 5.5 percent,

affordability would still be at the long term historical average” – Bing Lai, Research

Associate, Housing Finance Policy Center


Return TOC

Mortgage Credit Availability


Fixed Mortgage Rates and Credit Availability Down

“The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell for the fourth consecutive week and hit its lowest level in nearly

seven months, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) for the week

ending June 8. The 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.16 percent, down from last week when it

averaged 3.19 percent. And the five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged

3.11 percent this week, unchanged from last week.

Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that monthly Mortgage Credit

Availability Index (MCAI) dropped by 1.1 percent to 181.0 in May. Two of the four component indices

saw decreases (the Government MCAI was down 1.9 percent and the Conforming MCAI fell by 0.3

percent) and two saw increases (the Conventional MCAI was up 0.2 percent and the Jumbo MCAI was

up 0.8 percent).

Credit availability slipped in May, primarily driven by investors consolidating their offerings for

government insured loans. These decreases were partially offset by continued expansion among jumbo

loan programs. The Jumbo MCAI has increased in 13 of the last 15 months." – Lynn Fisher, Vice

President of Research and Economics, Mortgage Bankers Association

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association;

Powered by Ellie Mae's AllRegs® Market Clarity®

Higher Index = More Credit Available

Lower Index = Less Credit Available

Return TOC

SummaryIn summary:

April’s housing data were decidedly negative on a month-over-month basis. Conversely, year-over-

year data are positive. All data sectors were positive on a year-over-year basis. When looking at

unadjusted data, permits, starts, and new SF sales were similar to April 2016. In fact, SF starts and

new SF unadjusted sales were greater than April 2016. The bottom line, it was one-month’s data – let’s

wait a coupe of month’s and form observations. Once again, new SF lower-priced tier house sales

struggled. It bears repeating, the market needs consistent improvement in this category to influence the

housing construction market upward.

Housing, in the majority of categories, continues to be substantially less than their historical

averages. The new SF housing construction sector is where the majority of forest products are used

and this housing sector has room for improvement.

Pros:

1) Historically low interest rates are still in effect, though in aggregate rates are

incrementally rising;

2) As a result, housing affordability is good for many in most of – but not all of the U.S.;

3) Select builders are beginning to focus on entry-level houses.

Cons:

1) Lot availability and building regulations (according to several sources);

2) Changing attitudes towards SF ownership

3) Gentrification;

4) Job creation is improving and consistent but some economists question the quantity and

types of jobs being created;

5) Debt: Corporate, personal, government – United States and globally.

6) Other global uncertainties.

Return TOC

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Virginia Tech prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age,

disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic

information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public

assistance program. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information

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U.S. Department of Agriculture Disclaimer

Disclaimer of Non-endorsement

Reference herein to any specific commercial products, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or

otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States

Government. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States

Government, and shall not be used for advertising or product endorsement purposes.

Disclaimer of Liability

With respect to documents available from this server, neither the United States Government nor any of its employees, makes

any warranty, express or implied, including the warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, or assumes

any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or

process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.

Disclaimer for External Links

The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Department of Agriculture of the linked

web sites, or the information, products or services contained therein. Unless otherwise specified, the Department does not

exercise any editorial control over the information you November find at these locations. All links are provided with the

intent of meeting the mission of the Department and the Forest Service web site. Please let us know about existing external

links you believe are inappropriate and about specific additional external links you believe ought to be included.

Nondiscrimination Notice

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race,

color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual

orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from

any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require

alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's

TARGET Center at 202.720.2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination write to USDA, Director, Office of

Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410 or call 800.795.3272 (voice) or 202.720.6382

(TDD). The USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.