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APPLICATIONS OF STATEWIDE TRAVEL FORECASTING MODEL. Eric Songer URS Corporation Michael Doherty URS Corporation James Fennessy Fennessy Associates. Presentation Outline. Turnpike State Model Overview Validation Results Applications Heartland Forecast Grid Analysis - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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APPLICATIONS OF STATEWIDE TRAVEL FORECASTING MODEL
Eric SongerURS Corporation
Michael DohertyURS Corporation
James FennessyFennessy Associates
Presentation Outline
Turnpike State Model Overview Validation Results
Applications Heartland Forecast Grid Analysis Reverse Engineering
Questions
Turnpike State Model
GIS Database
Built from scratch to ensure consistency among all components
Simplified travel demand model structure with integrated land use model
Two way GIS to TRANPLAN interface
Landuse allocation interface capability
Produces vehicle forecasts (AADT)
Model Network Built from GDT/
TeleAtlas network, FDOT RCI
2004 base network 500,000 arcs 124,500 links
2015 network Florida DOT work
plan: 2,000 additional links
Includes 11,800 FDOT RCI traffic count stations
Zone System
Automatically generated from network
Total of 29,395 zones
4,837 internal
37 external
23,086 for non-developable areas (e.g. lakes)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
<25 mi. 25-50 mi. 50-150 mi. 150-300 mi. >300 mi.
TSM ME
NHTS
Florida Trip Length Distributions
TSM ME NHTS<25 mi. 92.0% 92.0%
25-50 mi. 5.2% 5.6%50-150 mi. 1.8% 1.8%
150-300 mi. 0.9% 0.4%>300 mi. 0.2% 0.2%
TSM ME is from the Turnpike State Model
NHTS is from the Florida resident sample of
US DOT's National Household Travel Survey
Model Validation
0 20 40 60 80 100
1 - 5
5 - 10
10 - 20
20 - 30
30 - 40
40 - 50
50 - 60
60 - 70
70 - 80
80 - 90
90 - 100
100 - 400
All Links
AA
DT
Vo
lum
e R
an
ge
(1
,00
0s
)
RMSE* (%)
Pre-Validation
Post-Validation
*Red bars represent the FHWA recommended maximum RMSE
Matrix-estimated trip lengths are very close to NHTS Florida distribution
Model matches the 11,800 counts very closely, in part due to substantial network data cleaning effort
Summary and Conclusions
FL TSM v.1.0 completed in 2006
Use of GIS database significantly facilitates model development and maintenance efforts
Simplified initial travel demand modeling approach supports focus on critical data quality and maintenance issues
Having reliable network data supports incremental enhancements of the travel demand models over time for toll forecasting analysis
Heartland Example
Evaluated both East-West and North-South Corridors
Automated alignment based on avoidance
Smoothed to engineering curves
Database updated
Performed toll forecasting analysis
Performed “reversed engineering” analysis
HeartlandAlignments
Heartland Analysis
East – West
2 alternatives
Not moving forward at this time
North – South
2 alternatives
Corridor identified for review
North of SR 60
Heartland Project – Reverse Engineering
Calculate Number of trips necessary to generate revenue necessary to bond toll facility
Use Matrix Estimation to generate trip table necessary to satisfy the necessary volume
Calculate additional needed socio-economic and employment per zone
Use GIS to display population and employment change
TSM Application – Grid Analysis
2035 Landuse projections 2015 Network GIS database available in 5 year
increments
Nine NewCorridors
What is Grid Analysis
One Mile Grid
Entire State
Cut-line analysis
Sum of Volume, Capacity
Calculates V/CLane by facility type
Grid Analysis
Shows where supply is not meeting demand
Pattern helps define corridors
V/C Red > 1Orange > 0.85 Green > 0.65Grey > .5
Grid Analysis Results
2035 land use with 2015
network
2035 V/C > .85
Grid Analysis & Corridors
TotalCorridor V\C Lane Mi.
A Escambia - Lower Alabama 0.79 156B Bay - Lower Alabama 0.39 26C W Central Fl - Lower Georgia 0.53 99D Hillsborough - Duval 0.67 422E Orange - Duval 0.70 146F Hernando - Brevard 0.78 706G Charlotte - Hernando 0.64 146H Collier - Polk 0.61 132I Manatee - Saint Lucie 0.62 39
Orange – Duval
AADT (millions) 35.2
Capacity (millions) 50.5
Volume / Capacity 0.70
New Capacity (Lane miles)
Limited Access 9
Primary Arterials 27
Secondary Arterials 40
Collectors 70
Total146
State V/CResults
2035 2035 land use with
2015 network
Summary and Conclusions
TSM has complemented other tools available to Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise for toll forecasting analysis applications
Future enhancements include: Toll mode choice model
Truck volume forecasting
Continuing TSM database maintenance and update
Questions?
