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Applications Applications ofof
Case-Based Reasoning Case-Based Reasoning in in
Product FormulationProduct Formulation
Ray RoweRay RoweAstraZenecaAstraZeneca
&&PROFITSPROFITS
Structure of TalkStructure of Talk
Product formulation and process Rule-based applications Benefits and issues Advantages of Case-based Reasoning Case-based applications Benefits, issues, views, future
Product FormulationProduct Formulation
The production of novel or enhanced effects by the blending/mixing and processing of chemicals.
Used by many industries to produce marketable products
Increased need for innovation due to shortening life cycles
Highly competitive environment
Formulation TasksFormulation Tasks
SPECIFICATION FORMULATION
INGREDIENTS
COMMERCIAL FACTORS
PRODUCTION FACTORS
PAST FORMULATIONS
MODELS
y = (x)
S
N N
Cl
ACTIVE INGREDIENT
$
Information FlowsInformation Flows
The Formulation ProcessThe Formulation Process
MarketDemand
Costs
Ingredients
FormulatorSpecification Product
Processing Models Properties
MarketDemand
Costs
Ingredients
FormulatorSpecification Product
Processing Models Properties
Product FormulationProduct Formulation
Complex process carried out in a design space that is multidimensional in nature and extremely difficult to conceptualise.
Specialised task requiring specific knowledge and often experience.
Artificial Intelligence in Artificial Intelligence in Product FormulationProduct Formulation
Technologies relevant to Product Formulation:
Rule-based reasoning - formulation development
Case-based reasoning
Neural networks - formulation modelling
Genetic algorithms - formulation optimisation
Neurofuzzy logic - formulation rules
Growth of Applications of Rule-Growth of Applications of Rule-Based Systems for Product Based Systems for Product FormulationFormulation
Year Total publications Pharmaceutical publications
1985 – 1990 17 2
1991 – 1995 17 11
1995 – 2001 16 13
Applications of Rule -Based Applications of Rule -Based Systems for Pharmaceutical Systems for Pharmaceutical FormulationFormulation
Tablets - ICI/Zeneca/AstraZeneca (1988 et sequens) - Cadila Labs (1992) - Japanese consortium (1998) - Pfizer (2000) Capsules - Pfizer (1989) - Capsugel (1995) - Sanofi (1996) - Japanese consortium (1998) Injections - University of Heidelberg (1991 et sequens) - Zeneca/AstraZeneca (1994 et sequens)
Applications of Rule-Based Applications of Rule-Based Systems for TextilesSystems for Textiles
WOOLY --Wool dyeing - Sandoz (1988) OPTIMIST - Dyeing - BASF (1988) PREMATIC - Cotton bleaching - Ciba (1989) BAFAREX - Cotton dyeing - BASF (1992) TEXPERTO - Textile finishing - Sandoz (1992) SMART MATCH - Textile colouring - DataColor (1994) BATEM - Dyeing - BRITE-EURAM (1997) COLPOCA - Colour matching - Ciba Specialty Chemicals
(2001)
Applications of Rule -Based Applications of Rule -Based Systems for Product FormulationSystems for Product Formulation
Aluminium alloys - Alcoa (1985) Lubricating oils – Shell Research (1989-1991) Agrochemicals – Rohm & Haas (1986) - Schering Agrochemicals (1987) Propellants - US Army (1988) Suncare products - Boots Company (1991) Vinyl pipes – Plasticos-Petroquimica CA (1995) plus Paints, Food relishes, Soft drinks,
Inks, Coatings and Adhesives
Benefits Accrued from using Benefits Accrued from using Rule-Based Systems for Rule-Based Systems for Product FormulationProduct Formulation
Knowledge protection and availability Consistency in decision making Training aid Increase speed of development Cost savings Freeing experts Improved communication
Business Impact from using Business Impact from using Rule-Based Systems for Rule-Based Systems for Product FormulationProduct Formulation
Enhancement of product quality and performance Development of new products and processes Shorter time to market Improved responses to customer demands Improved processing efficiency Cost savings Improved competitive edge
Benefits Accrued from using Benefits Accrued from using Rule –Based Systems for Rule –Based Systems for Product FormulationProduct Formulation
BOOTS Company (1991) Annual cost savings of £200K
Cadila Laboratories (1992) 35% reduction in time to develop new generic
tablet
Issues with Rule-Based Issues with Rule-Based Systems in Product Systems in Product FormulationFormulation
Lack of understanding of domain Domains often specialised and small Complexity of knowledge acquisition Evolution with time and practice Time and cost of development
CBR- The AdvantagesCBR- The Advantages
Solutions are quickly proposed Derivation from scratch is avoided Domains do not need to be completely
understood Cases useful for open-ended or ill-defined
concepts Case knowledge may be easy to acquire Decrease in time and cost of development
Growth in Case-Based Growth in Case-Based Reasoning in Product Reasoning in Product FormulationFormulation
Year No of Application
publications
1995 0 -
1996 1 Review
1997 2 Coloured plastics, Agrochemicals
1998 1 Tablets
1999 4 Foamed rubber, Lubricating oil
Tablets
2000 4 Tyres, Tablets
2001 5 Tablets, Tyres, Coloured plastics
Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Reasoning Expert SystemsReasoning Expert Systems
FieldField ProductProduct DeveloperDeveloper
PharmaceuticalsPharmaceuticals TabletsTablets AstraZeneca/Robert GordonAstraZeneca/Robert Gordon
UniversityUniversity (UK) (UK)
AgrochemicalsAgrochemicals Water dispersibleWater dispersible Zeneca Agrochemicals/University ofZeneca Agrochemicals/University ofgranulesgranules Greenwich (UK)Greenwich (UK)
OilOil Lubricating oilLubricating oil Jiangsu Institute/Lanzhou Refinery Jiangsu Institute/Lanzhou Refinery (China)(China)
PlasticsPlastics Coloured plasticsColoured plastics General Electric (USA)General Electric (USA)
RubberRubber Foamed rubberFoamed rubber LISA/INTEREP(France)LISA/INTEREP(France)
TyresTyres Pirelli/University of Milan (Italy)Pirelli/University of Milan (Italy)
Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for AgrochemicalsSystems for AgrochemicalsZeneca Agrochemicals /University of Zeneca Agrochemicals /University of Greenwich (1997)Greenwich (1997)
Case-based system for formulating water dispersible granules
Prototype using CBR-Works Case base of formulations of carbendazin Retrieval only, no adaptation Formulations consistent with expert opinion
Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for RubberSystems for Rubber LISA/INTEREP (1999)LISA/INTEREP (1999)
Case-based system for formulating closed- cell rubber structures (ACCELERE)
Domain complex with no model or strong theory
Case base of over 1000 designs Retrieval only, no adaptation Formulations listed in order for browsing
Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for RubberSystems for Rubber Pirelli/University of Milan (2000)Pirelli/University of Milan (2000)
Case-based system for formulating tyre treads (P-Race)
Incorporates knowledge of race circuits, road conditions, tyre designs, raw materials etc. etc.
Retrieval and adaptation Formulations in general agreement with those
adopted by experts Used in championships – Sports Racing World Cup,
American Le Mans Series
Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for PharmaceuticalsSystems for PharmaceuticalsAstraZeneca/Robert Gordon AstraZeneca/Robert Gordon University (1998)University (1998)
Case-based system for formulation tablets Prototype using ReCall, research project Retrieval and adaptation Retrieval and adaptation knowledge automatically
learned from cases in case base Case base small with evolutionary information Formulations in close agreement with expert opinion
and rule–based expert system
Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for Coloured PlasticsSystems for Coloured PlasticsGeneral Electric Company (1997)General Electric Company (1997)
Case-based system for formulating colours for plastics (Form Tool)
Colour matches the customer’s standard colour Selects formulation for specific plastic Introduced 1995 with case-base of 1700
formulations Now part of a web based e-commerce tool (color
xpress) Over 5000 colour matches performed each year.
Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for OilsSystems for OilsJiangsu Institute/ Lanzhou Refinery Jiangsu Institute/ Lanzhou Refinery (1999)(1999)
Case-based system for formulating diesel engine oil
Part of a multi-task expert system Case base of many formulations Retrieval based on similarity functions Uses rule-based system when no cases retrieved Formulations consistent with expert opinion
Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for OilsSystems for OilsJiangsu Institute/ Lanzhou Refinery Jiangsu Institute/ Lanzhou Refinery (1999)(1999)
SystemSystemFormulatorFormulator
% w/w% w/w % % w/ww/w
100SN Base oil100SN Base oil 0.00.0 0.00.0
200SN Base oil200SN Base oil 78.978.981.281.2
Residual Base oilResidual Base oil 2.42.4 2.02.0
Pour point depressantPour point depressant 0.40.4 0.30.3
TackifierTackifier 10.110.1 8.08.0
Additive T109Additive T109 3.83.8 4.04.0
Additive T152Additive T152 3.13.1 3.23.2
Additive T202Additive T202 1.21.2 1.31.3
Benefits Accrued from using Benefits Accrued from using Case –Based Systems for Case –Based Systems for Product FormulationProduct Formulation
General Electric Company (2001) Increased speed and productivity
$2.25 million savings per year Decreased cost of pigments
$2.4 million savings per year Global colour consistency
Issues with Case-Based Issues with Case-Based Systems in Product Systems in Product FormulationFormulation
Quality of case base
small, poor, biased
time-dependent philosophy The learning and refinement of essential
retrieval and adaptation knowledge
Personal ViewsPersonal Views
Product formulation an ideal domain for CBR (and RBR!!)
RBR software package (Formulogic) tried, tested and supported, No such package for CBR
Formulators accept the concept of the CBR paradigm but appear more happy with the RBR approach
Managers accept benefits of both but need to know relative costs and resources
Need to get more fielded applications More research/development necessary