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Application Trends in Professional School Admissions
AACRAO / NNLSO 2008 Annual Conference
Kathy Hartman Vermont Law School
Today’s Presentation Will Include:
U.S. Census Data and ProjectionsLaw School TrendsMedical School TrendsBusiness School TrendsHow these trends intersect
U.S. Resident Population Projections (in thousands)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050population 308,936 335,805 363,584 391,946 419,85420 - 24 yrs 21,676 20,751 23,136 24,897 26,297
U.S. Resident Population Projections by Median Age
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Projected Racial Distribution by Percentage of Population
0102030405060708090
2000 2025 2050
American IndianAsianBlackHispanic OriginWhite
Projected Racial Distribution by Percentage of Population
2000 2025 2050
Amer. Indian .9% 1.0% 1.1%
Asian 4.1% 6.5% 9.3%
Black 12.8% 13.9% 14.7%
Hispanic Origin 11.8% 18.2% 24.3%
White 82.2% 78.5% 74.9%
Hispanic Origin may be of any race.
U.S. Resident PopulationEducational Attainment in 2006
Not H.S. Graduate
H.S. Graduate
Some College
Assoc. Degree
Bachelor Degree
Adv. Degree
White 13.9% 31.8% 16.9% 9.0% 18.6% 9.8%Black 19.3% 35.6% 19.0% 7.7% 12.6% 5.8%Other 14.7% 23.9% 14.2% 7.6% 24.6% 14.9%
0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%
Educational Attainment in 2006Hispanic and Non-Hispanic
Not H.S. GraduateH.S. GraduateSome CollegeAssoc. DegreeBachelor DegreeAdv. Degree
Hispanic 40.7% 28.4% 12.7% 5.9% 8.8% 3.6%Non-Hispanic 10.9% 32.2% 17.6% 9.1% 19.6% 10.5%
0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%
Projected College EnrollmentAll Levels (in thousands)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Public Private1980 9,457 2,6401990 10,845 2,9742000 11,753 3,5602010 14,085 4,7542016 15,186 5,256
Law School Data
ABA Approved Law Schools
196 ABA approved law schoolsIncluding 8 new provisionally approved
12 new law schools approved since 2000
Law School Trends 2001 - 2008
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000
2001 -02
2002 -03
2003 -04
2004 -05
2005 -06
2006 -07
2007 -08
LSAT's Administered
Applications
Applicants
JD Enrollments
1977 1987 1997 2007
Number of ABALaw Schools
163 175 179 195
First Year Enrollment
39,996 40,195 43,245 48,937
% Minority Enrollment
9.2% 11.8% 20.2% 22.3%
Law School Challenges
As economy weakens, more candidates choose law schoolHigher tuitions lead to higher indebtednessStrict bar passage requirements will impact minority enrollmentsPressures to improve rankings
Medical School Data
Accredited Medical Schools
Medical Schools are accredited by the Liaison Committee on Medical Education – sponsored by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) and the American Medical Association (AMA)125 accredited medical schools3 schools with preliminary accreditation status6 schools in the initial review status
Medical School Trends 2001 - 2007
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
MCAT's Administered
Applications
Matriculants
Medical School Challenges
Urgent need to meet the needs of growing and aging populationMedical school enrollment projected to increase 17% by 201271 U.S. schools are planning expansionsAt least 5 new schools will open within 5 years
How Law and Medical Trends Intersect
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Law School Applicants
Medical School Applicants
Business School Data
Business School Programs
Two-year, full-time MBA programsOne-year, full-time MBA programsPart-time programsExecutive MBA programsJoint or dual degreesSpecialty degrees
GMAT Testing Trends 1996 - 2006
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
Non-U.S. CitizensU.S. Citizens
GMAT Testing Distinctions
Computer-Adaptive exam is now offered world-wideApproximately 20% of GMAT tests are taken to submit scores to non-business graduate programs
Business School Application Trends
Survey response from 252 schools worldwide, providing data for 445 programs
641 new graduate management programs introduced worldwide in first half of 2007
Currents Trends . . .
All types report strong application volume – with exception of PhD programsInterest in part-time programs is growingForeign applicants contribute to increase in overall volume for flexible and executive programs
Net Trend in Applications2006-07 to 2007-08
Part-Time Masters: + 58%Part-Time MBA: + 46%Online MBA: + 43%Executive MBA: + 40%Full-Time MBA: + 36%Flexible MBA: + 18%Full-Time Masters: + 17%PhD: - 20%
What Does It All Mean ????
App. 1/3 of applicants to all three programs are ethnic or racial minoritiesAs national demographics shift over the next generation, how will our schools react?How do we think the current economic picture will impact our enrollments?Other thoughts??
Bibliography
American Bar Association Section on Legal Education: Chicago, IL; www.abanet.org/legaledAssociation of American Medical Colleges: Washington, DC; www.aamc.orgGraduate Management Admission Council: Arlington, VA; www.gmac.comLaw School Admission Council: Newtown, PA; www.lsac.orgU.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2008 (127th Edition), Washington, DC; www.census.gov/statab
Presenter Contact Information
Kathy HartmanAssociate Dean for Enrollment
ManagementVermont Law School