Application to the city of Thessaloniki - VCE to the city … · SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, 21-22 March 2013 3 New fragility curves (buildings, bridges) Seismic hazard – Geotechnical

SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, 21-22 March 2013 1

Application to the city

of Thessaloniki

Kyriazis Pitilakis, Sotiris Argyroudis,

Kalliopi Kakderi, Jacopo Selva (AUTH)

George Tsionis (UPAT)

Bijan Khazai (KIT)

Sebnem Duzgun (METU)

Systemic Seismic Vulnerability and Risk Analysis

for Buildings, Lifeline Networks

and Infrastructures Safety Gain


New fragility curves (buildings, bridges) (UPAT)

Seismic hazard – Geotechnical zonation

Seismic risk – losses

- Building stock (Municipality of Thessaloniki)

- Main road network (interaction with buildings)

- Main electric power network (transmission system)

- Main water supply system (interaction with electric

power network)

Transportation accessibility assessment (METU)

Shelter demand assessment (KIT)

Port of Thessaloniki (harbor components, interaction

with electric power network) (AUTH)

Application to the city of Thessaloniki


New fragility curves (buildings, bridges)

Seismic hazard – Geotechnical zonation

Seismic risk – losses

- Building stock (Municipality of Thessaloniki)

- Main road network (interaction with buildings)

- Main electric power network (transmission system)

- Main water supply system (interaction with electric

power network)

Transportation accessibility assessment

Shelter demand assessment

Port of Thessaloniki (harbor components, interaction

with electric power network)

Application to the city of Thessaloniki


Seismic hazard

Geotechnical zonation


Seismicity - Tectonics

Geographical distribution

of earthquake events with

M ≥4.0

SHARE 2013

Tectonics


Seismic zones

GRAS388

GRAS392

GRAS390

MKAS212

MKAS389

26°0'0"E

26°0'0"E

25°0'0"E

25°0'0"E

24°0'0"E

24°0'0"E

23°0'0"E

23°0'0"E

22°0'0"E

22°0'0"E

42°0'0"N 42°0'0"N

41°0'0"N 41°0'0"N

40°0'0"N 40°0'0"N

SHARE 2013

SYNER-G

application


Seismic zones: Thessaloniki application

Simulation events for Monte-Carlo analysis (10,000 runs)


Seismic hazard – PGA at rock (Tm=500 years)

SHARE 2013

0.20g

Greece

Europe Thessaloniki


Main RoadByzantine City Walls

0 1000 2000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24


0 1000 2000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Debris SM/CL


0 1000 2000

0 10 20 30 40 50

CL hard

Geotechnical mapping


Ευρωκώδικας 8

A

B

C

S2

Νέα κατηγοριοποίηση

B1

B2

C1

C1-X

C3

C3-X

D3

D3-X

Study area

SHARE 2013

EC8

New classification

Geotechnical mapping according to EC8


Geotechnical classification according to EC8

Geotechnical classification

(EC8)

23°2'0"E

23°2'0"E

23°0'0"E

23°0'0"E

22°58'0"E

22°58'0"E

22°56'0"E

22°56'0"E

22°54'0"E

22°54'0"E

22°52'0"E

22°52'0"E

22°50'0"E

22°50'0"E

22°48'0"E

22°48'0"E

22°46'0"E

22°46'0"E

22°44'0"E

22°44'0"E

22°42'0"E

22°42'0"E

22°40'0"E

22°40'0"E

40°44'0"N 40°44'0"N

40°42'0"N 40°42'0"N

40°40'0"N 40°40'0"N

40°38'0"N 40°38'0"N

40°36'0"N 40°36'0"N

40°34'0"N 40°34'0"N

40°32'0"N 40°32'0"N

40°30'0"N 40°30'0"N

23°2'0"E

23°2'0"E

23°0'0"E

23°0'0"E

22°58'0"E

22°58'0"E

22°56'0"E

22°56'0"E

22°54'0"E

22°54'0"E

22°52'0"E

22°52'0"E

22°50'0"E

22°50'0"E

22°48'0"E

22°48'0"E

22°46'0"E

22°46'0"E

22°44'0"E

22°44'0"E

22°42'0"E

22°42'0"E

22°40'0"E

22°40'0"E

40°44'0"N 40°44'0"N

40°42'0"N 40°42'0"N

40°40'0"N 40°40'0"N

40°38'0"N 40°38'0"N

40°36'0"N 40°36'0"N

40°34'0"N 40°34'0"N

40°32'0"N 40°32'0"N

40°30'0"N 40°30'0"N

Liquefaction susceptibility

(HAZUS, NIBS 2004)

A

B

C

0: None

3: Moderate

5: Very High

None

Moderate

High


SHARE 2013 (EC8)

0.20g

0.20g

PSA T=1s (g)

0.2

0.325

0.51

0.20g

0.20g

PSA T=0.3s (g)

0.5

0.65

0.85

PSA (T=0.3s) (g)

PGA (g)

0.20

0.26

0.34

PSA (T=1s) (g)

PGA (g)

Seismic ground motion – Tm= 500 years


Buildings

of Thessaloniki (BDG)


20 Sub Districts

Sub-City Districts – European Urban Audit (Eurostat)

ID SCD name Population

0 Ladadika-Dikastirion squ. 15868

1 St.George-Rotonda 19260

2 University-Int.Exhib.Center-White Tower 21376

3 PAOK-Malakopi 21376

4 Papafio-St.Constantine-Military Hospital 17385

5 Toumba-St.Fanourios-Ydragogio 18542

6 Vlatadon-St.Dimitrios-Lachanagora 16319

7 Municipal Hospital-Fylakes (Penitentiary) 16709

8 Athinon 18860

9 Analipsi-Dermatologiko 19619

10 Nea Paralia-Municipal Library 20134

11 Railway Station-Xirokrini 16669

12 Pasha Hamam-Tyroloi 15454

13 Charilaou-Exohes 26815

14 Nomarchia-Vafopoulio-Depau 25455

15 School for the blind-Sailing Club 15822

16 Constantinoupoleos-Delfon-Botsari 16761

17 Ippokratio 16712

18 Ecclesiastic School-Kato Toumba 20724

19 Makedonia Palace-Paedagogiki Academia 16729


Building Stock – Study area

• buildings blocks (study area): 2,893

• buildings (study area): 27,738 (92% R/C, 8% masonry)

• inhabitants: 376,589 (municipality), 790,824 (city)

0 1,000 2,000500

Meters

nTotal

0 - 5

5 - 15

15 - 30

30 - 80

>80

Number of buildings


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

RC

3.1

LL

RC

3.1

ML

RC

3.1

HL

RC

3.2

LL

RC

3.2

ML

RC

3.2

HL

RC

4.2

LL

RC

4.2

ML

RC

4.2

HL

RC

4.2

LM

RC

4.2

MM

RC

4.2

HM

RC

4.2

LH

RC

4.2

MH

RC

4.2

HH

RC

4.3

LL

RC

4.3

ML

RC

4.3

HL

RC

4.3

LM

RC

4.3

MM

RC

4.3

HM

RC

4.3

MH

RC

4.3

HH

Nu

mb

er o

f bu

ild

ings

Building Type

• Total number of R/C buildings: 25,689

• Total built area: 34,062,478.61 m2

• Most common R/C buildings typology:

dual systems (RC frames and walls), mid-rise (4-7 floors), low code (pre-1980)

R/C Building Typology


Building inventory – Typology

Initial database

0 1,000 2,000500

Meters

nTotal

0 - 5

5 - 15

15 - 30

30 - 80

>80

Data expansion


• Estimate the number of buildings within each block

• Criteria: homogeneous roof color, visible distance from the next building, visible difference in

the building height.

• The mapping of single buildings may differ when the inventory is performed from the ground.

Building inventory expansion using

optical remote sensing (JRC)


Building stock – Events with deaths 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)


0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

x 10-3

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100

BDG-deaths

B

DG

-death

s

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 100000

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.41.5

x 10-5

# runs

BD

G-d

eath

s

mean

mean +/- std

Building stock – Average Losses (Deaths) Results (10,000 runs)

BD

G (

de

ath

s %

of to

tal p

op

.)

# runs

moving average

0.48x10-05

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

x 10-3

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100

BDG-deaths

B

DG

-death

s

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 100000

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.41.5

x 10-5

# runs

BD

G-d

eath

s

mean

mean +/- std

λ (

BD

G-d

ea

ths)

Deaths (% of total pop.)

Mean Annual Frequency

of exceedance

x 790.824 = 4 deaths

(population)

deaths with Tm= 500 years (λ=0.002)

0.255x10-03 x 790.824 = 201 deaths


Building stock – Average Losses Results (10,000 runs)

Collapses

Yield


Dead

Injured



Displaced people

(good weather)


Displaced people

(bad weather)

Function of:

- population/building density

- direct building damage

(building usability)

- utility loss (water, electric)

(building habitability)


Correlation of EPN & WSS to Displaced People


Building stock: PGA at rock for Tm=500 yrs (PI: Deaths)

M=5.5, R= 24 km

Important parameters

• Grid size

• Spatial correlation model

• Interpolation technique


Building stock: Losses for Tm=500yrs (PI: Deaths) 5 seismic zones (10,000 runs)

Collapses

Yield


Deaths

Injured




Displaced people

(good weather)

Displaced people

(bad weather)

SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, 21-22 March 2013

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

x 10-3

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

BDG-deaths

B

DG

-death

s

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-2

0

2

4

6x 10

-4

# runs

BD

G-d

eath

s

mean

mean +/- std


λ (

BD

G-d

ea

ths)


of exceedance

31

Building stock – Average Losses (Deaths) Results (1 zone: 2,000 runs)

BD

G (

de

ath

s %

of to

tal p

op

.)

# runs

moving average

1.05x10-04 x 790.824 = 83 deaths

(population)


0.96x10-03 x 790.824 = 760 deaths


Collapses

Yield

Building stock – Average Losses 1 seismic zone (2,000 runs)


Injured

Deaths




Displaced people

(good weather)

Displaced people

(bad weather)


0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6

x 10-3

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

BDG-deaths

B

DG

-death

s

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5x 10

-3

# runs

BD

G-d

eath

s

mean

mean +/- std

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6

x 10-3

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

BDG-deaths

B

DG

-death

s

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5x 10

-3

# runs

BD

G-d

eath

s

mean

mean +/- std


λ (

BD

G-d

ea

ths)


of exceedance

35

Building stock – Average Losses (Deaths) M6.5, R=27km (100 runs)

BD

G (

de

ath

s %

of to

tal p

op

.)

# runs

moving average

0.55 x10-04 x 790.824 = 44 deaths

(population)


0.31x10-03 x 790.824 = 245 deaths


Collapses

Yield

Building stock – Average Losses M=6.5 (100 runs)


Injured

Deaths




Displaced people

(good weather)

Displaced people

(bad weather)


Building stock – PGA at rock M=6.5 (100 runs)

Average PGA Event#82


Building stock – Average Losses – SHARE application

Haz5_NO_a

Haz5_SL_a

Haz5_MOD_a

Haz5_EXT_a

Haz5_COM_a

Collapses: 1131

Deaths: 102

(New Soil Classification / SHARE 2013)


Building stock – Losses for different analyses

Collapses Deaths

Average Tm500yrs Average Tm500yrs

5 zones

(10,000 runs) 44 2248* 4 201*

1 zone Volvi

(2,000 runs) 1024 10638* 83 760*

M6.5 Volvi

(100 runs) 535 2495* 44 245*

SHARE

application** - 1131 - 102

* Correspond to Tm=500 year of PI: Deaths

** Masonry buildings are not included; different amplification factors & fragility models


Road Network

of Thessaloniki (RDN)


Bridges/Overpass:

• Single span (non-monolithic): 15

• Multiple spans: 44

Roads (236 km)

• Freeway, Major arterial: 172 km

• Secondary arterial, Collective roads: 64 km

• Road distance <= 5m from buildings: 20 km

Application to RDN of Thessaloniki


Network connectivity: Performance Indicators

Simple Connectivity Loss (SCL): Connectivity loss between TAZs

Weighted Connectivity loss (WCL): Weighted (over travel speed)

connectivity loss between TAZs

Bridge/road

failure

Blocked by

overpass bridges

Blocked by

buildings


# sides # nodes want discretization? max road length (km) approximate length after discretization (km)

686 594 yes 8 6

nodes

lat (°) long (°) z (m) Vs30 (m/s) Type TAZ type Vulnerable IMtypes

40.630 22.948 0 0 TAZ CBD no none

40.618 22.958 0 0 TAZ non-CBD no none








40.629 22.957 0 0 TAZ CBD no none

40.626 22.960 0 0 TAZ CBD no none

40.634 22.947 0 0 TAZ CBD no none

40.643 22.931 0 0 TAZ CBD no none



40.635 22.935 0 0 TAZ CBD no none

40.635 22.939 0 0 TAZ CBD no none

40.637 22.942 0 0 TAZ CBD no none

40.626 22.949 0 0 TAZ CBD no none

40.624 22.953 0 0 TAZ CBD no none






40.637 22.950 0 0 TAZ CBD no none






localization and soil information functional information

sides

start node end node Vs30 (m/s) / Nspt Type classification capacity (vph) free-flow speed (km/h) # of ways Vulnerable IMtypes # of vuln elements site class depth2GW (ft) LiquefactionSusClass LandslideSusClass yield acc (g) Road width Bldg-Road distance Hierarchy Adjacent buildings Overcross

214 143 0 roadSegmentA principal 1100 50 2 yes pgd 1 - 5 20 7 2 2

17 160 0 roadSegmentA principal 1100 50 1 yes pgd 1 - 5 15 5.5 2 2































sides

start node end node Vs30 (m/s) / Nspt Type classification capacity (vph) free-flow speed (km/h) # of ways Vulnerable IMtypes # of vuln elements site class depth2GW (ft) LiquefactionSusClass LandslideSusClass yield acc (g) Road width Bldg-Road distance Hierarchy Adjacent buildings Overcross

































Input sheets



Average losses (MCS, 10,000 runs)



Application results, MCS simulation (10,000 runs)

Weighted Connectivity Loss

(WCL)

Simple Connectivity Loss

(SCL)

Average SCL: 0.35% Average WCL: 0.40%


Application results, MCS simulation (10,000 runs)

Weighted Connectivity Loss (WCL)

Simple Connectivity Loss (SCL)

Mean

An

nu

al

Fre

qu

en

cy

of

exceed

an

ce (

λ)

Connectivity Loss 12% 18%

Loss with Tm= 500 years

(λ=0.002)


Correlation of broken bridges to network

connectivity

Ring road

Interchange K17

Interchange

with railway

Road to airport

Ring road

Interchange K18

Interchange

(Monastiriou)


Road segments:

Thessaloniki historical center

East part of the city

Correlation of blocked roads to network

connectivity

Damage due to

liquefaction


Effect of interaction with collapsed buildings

Road Network Risk Curve

Weighted Connectivity

Loss (WCL)

Mean

An

nu

al

Fre

qu

en

cy

of

exceed

an

ce (

λ)

interaction

no interaction

20% 33%


Electric Power Network

of Thessaloniki (EPN)


Application to EPN of Thessaloniki

Features:

- 1 generator

- 8 transmission

substations

- 21 demand nodes

Interactions with:

- Water supply system

- Port

- Buildings

SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, 21-22 March 2013 66 66

Connectivity

analysis

Seismic vulnerability and functionality of EPN

- Three nested sub-networks with independent connectivity analyses:

- generators – transmission subst.

- transmission subst. – distribution subst.

- distribution subst.– demand nodes

- PI = fraction of supplied (non-isolated) demand nodes


Average losses (MCS, 10,000 runs)

Application to EPN of Thessaloniki 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100

EPN-ECL

E

PN

-EC

L

101

102

103

104

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

# runs

EP

N-E

CL

mean

mean +/- std

Moving average

μ, μ+σ and μ-σ

Average CL: 0.5 %


0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.810

-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100

EPN-ECL

E

PN

-EC

L

101

102

103

104

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

# runs

EP

N-E

CL

mean

mean +/- std

68


of exceedance (MAF)

λ=0.002

24 %

Connectivity loss:

24%

Losses for Tm=500 years of ECL

M=7.4, R=40 km


Correlation of broken substations to network

connectivity


Water Supply System

of Thessaloniki (WSS)


Application to WSS of Thessaloniki

Features:

- 21 pumps

- 11 tanks

- pipes ~280 km

- 437 demand nodes

Simplified network

SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, 21-22 March 2013 75 75

WSS and EPN simulation graph

Seismic vulnerability and functionality of WSS

Connectivity

analysis

PI = fraction of supplied (non-isolated) demand nodes

Interaction with:

Electric Power Network


Application to WSS of Thessaloniki Average Losses (10,000 runs)

Average connectivity loss:

0.35%


Losses for Tm=500 years of WCL


of exceedance (MAF)

λ=0.002

1.4 %

M=7.4, R= 72 km


Correlation of damaged pipes & broken EPN

transmission stations to network connectivity


interaction

no interaction Mean

An

nu

al

Fre

qu

en

cy

of

exceed

an

ce (

λ)

Weighted Connectivity

Loss (WCL) System functionality

Tm= 1000 years of WCL

1% 1.8%

Water Supply System Risk Curve Effect of interaction with Electric Power Network


Conclusions

• The SYNER-G methodology and tools have been validated in

Thessaloniki (BDG, RDN, WSS, EPN)

• The performance of each network is estimated based on a

stochastic approach

• Average loss estimates, losses for specific return periods of

each PI and correlation of components performance to the

total systems’ functionality

• Future improvements:

• Spatial correlation issues, treatment of uncertainties

• Extension of networks, new components and networks

(e.g. gas), flow analysis

Documents

Application to the city of Thessaloniki - VCE to the city … · SYNER-G Final Workshop, Milano, 21-22 March 2013 3 New fragility curves (buildings, bridges) Seismic hazard – Geotechnical