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Dr. B~lint Balkay
Lord Balogh
Dr. Donald Beattie
Dr. Jochen Bethkenhagen
Prof. Dr. J6zsef Bogn~r*
Prof. Dr. Oleg Bogomolov**
Mag. Werner Brandstetter
Dr. Klaus Brendow
M. Bernard Cazes*
Dr. lstv~n Dobozi
Drs. Hans DuMoulin
Dr. Gerhard Fink
APPENDIX
LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest
Balliol College, Oxford and The British National Oil Corporation, London
Director, Energy Systems, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington
Deutsches I nstitut fiir Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin (West)
Director, Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest
Director, Institute for the Socialist World Economic System, Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Moscow, USSR
- The Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies, Vienna, (temporarily affiliated)
Deputy Director, Energy Division, Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva
Head of Division, Commissariat General du Plan d'Equipement et de Ia Productivite, Paris
Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian· Academy of Sciences, Budapest
- Shell International Petroleum Co, Ltd., London
The Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies, Vienna
449
D.A.V. Fischer
Dr. Wilhelm Frank
Felice D. Gaer
Gesandter Dr. Elmer Gamper
Dr. Ingrid Gazzari
M. Lucien Gouni
Dip I. I ng. Werner Grieshofer
David Gushee
Prof. Wolf Hafele
John P. Hardt*
Achim v. Heynitz
Mats Hojeberg
Dipl. lng. Karl Honigmann
Prof. Dr. Norbert Kloten*
450
Vice Director General, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna
Chief of Section, Austrian Federal Ministry for Trade and Industry, Vienna
The Ford Foundation, New York
Austrian Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Vienna
- The Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies, Vienna
Sous-D irecteur, Etudes economiques generales, Electricite de France, Paris
OIAG (Austrian National Industries Holding Company) Vienna
Chief of Environment and Natural Resources Division, Congressional Research Service, The Library of Congress, Washington
Deputy Director, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Associate Director of Senior Specialist Office, Congressional Research Service, The Library of Congress, Washington
- Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (Foundation for Science and Politics) Ebenhausen b. Munchen
- The National Swedish Industrial Board, Division for Energy Projections, Stockholm
Osterreichische Verbundgesellschaft, (General Austrian Electricity Board). Vienna
President, National Bank of Baden-Wurttemberg, Stuttgart
Prof. Dr. Hans Knop
Prof. Dr. Rikard Lang*
Dr. Ulf Lantzke
Hochschule fiir Okonomie, Berlin-Karlshorst, GDR
University Zagreb and Ekonomski lnstitut, Zagreb
Executive Director, OECD, International Energy Agency, Paris
Prof. Dr. Kazimierz Laski Johannes Kepler University, Linz, Austria
Dr. Dr. Friedrich Levcik * Director, The Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies, Vienna
Prof. Dr. Aleksander Lukaszewicz* - Warsaw University, Department of Eco-nomics, Warsaw
Dr. Friedemann Muller - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (Founda-
Dr. Karl Musil
Prof. Tadeusz Muszkiet, M. sc.
George F. Ray
Dr. Philipp Rieger*
Dipl. lng. Rudolf Safoschnik
Prof. Christopher T. Saunders
Dr. Hans L. Schmid
tion for Science and Politics) Ebenhausen b. Miinchen
Osterreichisches I nstitut fiir Wirtschaftsforschung (Austrian Institute for Economic Research), Vienna
Director, Department of Energy and Fuels, Planning Commission, Warsaw
National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London
Chairman of the Workshop; Director, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna
OMV AG (Osterr. Mineralolverwaltungs-AG), Vienna
Sussex European Research Centre, Brighton
Head of Staff, Swiss Energy Committee, Bern
451
Prof. Dr. Min. Eng. Benon Stranztc
Dr. Wolfgang Zehetner
Dr. Joachim Pfeffer
* Member of Steering Committee
Chairman of the State Mining Council of
Poland, Warsaw
Austrian Federal Ministry for Trade and
Industry, Vienna
- University Gottingen, Gottingen (observer)
tt Not present but sent written contribution
452
INDEX*
Page numbers in italics refer to tables or diagrams. References to workshop participants under "paper(s)" include their contributions to discussions; references to authors of papers by other discussants are indexed under "discussion'~ Abbreviations and acronyms are grouped at the beginning of the inital letter.
Abbreviations, list of, 8 Adria oil pipeline, 87, 115, 187 Advisory Committee on East-West Trade (CIA)
categories of oil reserves, 146-7 projections, 159,160,161
of USSR oil production, 147-9,439-40 Afghanistan: natural gas exports to USSR, 90 Agriculture
energy demand, 227, 250 uses of solar energy, 258
Alaska proposed gas pipeline, 180
Alaskan North Slope oil field, 133 influence on market stability, 128 output, 209
Alternative energy sources see New energy sources
Atomic Energy Community, 67 Austria
electricity: supply role, 379-92 trade with CMEA, 389
energy resources, 279 high voltage coupling station, 106 high voltage grid and international connections, 383 role in cooperation, 447 role in gas supply and transport, 412-13 supplies from CMEA sources, 80 see also SUDE L
Automobile engine design, 176, 206
Balkay, BAlint, papers: 77-101,121-3, 353-4; discussion: 116, 119, 166
Balogh, Thomas (Lord Balogh), papers: 393-5, 413-14;discussion, 353
Beattie, Donald A., papers: 257-67, 277-a; discussion, 275
Belgium: Dutch natural gas imports, 64 Belgrade conference ( 1977), 369 Bethkenhagen,Jochen,paper: 437-46;
discussion, 447 Biofuels
in Swiss projections, 326, 334 intensification of R & D, 27 possible UK strategy, 271
Bognar, J6zsef, paper: 417-35; discussion, 120, 447
• Compiled by Audrey Bamber
Bogomolov, Oleg, paper: 137-43 Boiler plant technology, 407 Brandstetter, Werner, paper: 145-64;
discussion: 115, 166 Brandow, Klaus, papers: 19-43, 120-1 , 279,
414-15;discussion, 115,116-18,165 Brenner, M.M., 187 Bucharest pricing principle, 86 Buildings
energy demands, 227 equipping with solar systems, 258 heating, 24 introduction of codes in Sweden, 343,344 projected heat loss reduction, 250 Swedish conservation programme, 348-9 see also Insulation of buildings
Bulgaria coal: imports, 97
production, 96 electricity: imports, 99 energy production and consumption, 143 natural gas: imports, 90, 91 net importer of energy, 111 nuclear power generation programme, 93, 94 oil: and gas consumption increase, 137
imports, 84, 85 port facilities, 87
CERN see European Organization for Nuclear Research CIA see Advisory Committee on East-West Trade CINDA (index of neutron data), 372 CMEA see Council for Mutual Economic Assistance Capi:tal stock
invested, determinant for energy supply, 25 rate of turnover, 291
Capital transfer methods, 365 Carbo-chemistry, 29 Carnot efficiency, 221 Cazes, Bernard, paper: 351-3
453
Climatic factors, 49 Coal
454
brown CMEA: fields, 145, 312
production, 138,313-14 development of output: 401 GDR: production, 104
production/processing lines, 57 USSR: reserves, 157 utilization, 50
hard CMEA: increase in extraction, 140
modernization of extraction, 319 net exports, 78 output,95,96,98, 738,313 production and consumption, 143 resources of minor countries, 77
concentrated in northern hemisphere, 409 cooperative measures, 397-412
in transport systems, 109 current position in world market, 398-402 ECE activity: on production and conversion, 42
gasification and liquefaction project, 31 perspective analysis, 42, 121
EEC: aid, 69 policy objectives, 69
extraction rates (1973-7), 402 extraction technology, 410-11 hydrogen production from, 263 influence on location of industry, 62 liquefaction and gasification, 319, 359,407-8
importance to global energy supply, 230 in CMEA, 140 in USA, 179 research, 28, 66, 70
long-term prospects, 394-5 manpower difficulties, 300 output: decline, 397
development, 400 post-1955 mining problems, 63 production: and utilization, 311-12, 311
enhancement necessary, 27 hydromechanization, 410 increase in E. Europe, 299 technological and economic aspects, 408-11
recovery efficiency, 21 re-evaluation of national policies, 293 resources: difference in North and South Europe, 63
much greater than oil, 403, 405 role in future markets, 130 substitution for oil, 132, 165 supplanted by oil and gas, 209 supplies, growth rate to accelerate, 27 Switzerland: share in energy projection, 326, 334 transport: long distance, 411
slurry pipelines, 109 UK: possible strategy, 271 USA: emphasis on new uses, 178-9 USSR: dominating policy, 181
plans, 88 policy issues, 185 resources, 77, 157
utilization, technical and economic aspects, 407-8 W. Europe: dependence levels, 72-3
production reduced, 68 trade between countries, 64
world resources: estimate, 403, 409 imbalance with use, 309
sea slso Fossil fuels; Liginite; Solid fuels Cogeneration, 225, 226
projected market penetration, 247 Coke: use by steel industry, 227,249 Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (Helsinki, 1975), 361,369 Connected balancing equations, 46 Conservation measures, 165
administrative difficulties in East, 297-8 and economic growth, 282 cooperation in CMEA, 320-2
policy issues, 185 demonstration projects, 70 economic considerations in USA, 180 effect in Swiss scenarios, 325 effect on use of USSR oil, 152 in long-term demand-supply integration, 24 in production industries, 48 in USA, 174, 175 in W. Europe, 289 incentives, 286 influencing economic choices, 80 inhibited by centralized planning, 167 long lead times, 134 methodological differences in studies, 348 need for continued improvement, 130 need for early introduction, 29 related to motor vehicles, 206 short- and long-term economies, 205 Swedish programmes, 343-6, 348-9, 350
Consumption see Energy consumption Conversion losses, 218,220-1
Conversion - Energy oonversion equivalents Cooperative measures
advantages for W. Germany, 359-61 between energy importing oountries, 295-6 CMEA: energy supply, 304
in ooal programmes, 98 in oonservation, 307-22 in nuclear anergy, 92-3, 94, 95 in offshore exploration, 88-9 projects, 82-3, 139, 315-22
determinant for anergy supplies, 25 East/Wast: forecasts, 393
in electricity supply, 106 investment bank suggested, 415 primary anergy projects, 162 restrictions, 26
economic limitations, 363-4 economy of scala, 121 essential to Switzerland, 330 European oil pipeline system, 65, 75 growth in W. Europa, 63 incoal,411-12
production, transport and utilization, 397-412
in electricity supply, 384-5, 386, 387 in energy R & D, 66, 207 in high technology fields, 188, 264 in natural gas supply: Austria's role, 412-13 in North Sea oil development policies, 132 inter-governmental transport schemes, 21, 117 kay factors, 30 likely fields, 28-9
summary, 279 limiting factors in W. Europa, 63,65-6 need to extend multilateral agreements, 415 nuclear programma, 371-3 number of joint ventures, 427 spatial aspects, 118-19 to avoid future price increases, 135
Costs compared with alternative production factors, 25 of energy in overall cost structure, 284-5 of anergy production, 51
Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA - Eastern Europe)
analysis of policy responses, 281, 296-305 coal: production, 95, 96, 98, 157 collaboration with IAEA, 374 Complex Programma for Cooperation and Integration (19711. 82
oooperative projects, 82-3, 139, 315-22 for conservation, 307-22
decline in self-sufficiency, 303 development of anergy economy. 137, 138 discussion with EEC, 430 effect of changes in trade relationships, 48 electricity: generation, 98, 99, 100
trade with Austria, 389 anergy balance, 40, 159-62 anergy demand (1965-90), 37
and determinants, 32 rapid growth, 111, 441-2
energy production: and trade, 107 energy resources, 77, 121 anergy self-sufficiency. 103, 122, 137. 303 anergy supplies (1965-90), 34
anticipated increase, 26 projection. 145 security, 122
energy trade, 39 exports toW. Europe, 105, 109, 116 factors influencing trade with West, 123 importance of export earnings, 110 imports from developing countries, 304-5 increasing import dependency, 25, 27-8,299 need to adjust to exporting, 427 relability as energy supplier, 104 share of total USSR exports, 110, 111, 122 share of W. European imports, 112, 113 with W. Germany, 357
expanding use of Soviet hydrocarbons, 182 fast breeder programma, 92 growth of anergy and oil demand, 441-2 international borrowing, 364, 365, 427 Long-Term Target-Oriented Programme of Cooperation (LTPCI,139-40,141-2 natural gas. degree of self-sufficiency, 155, 156
increase in supplies, 27 Orenburg project, 89, 92 reserves, 154, 155,166 trade, 89, 90, 91
need for new technology, 297 nuclear energy production, 159 oil: attempt at independence, 442
demand, 151, 152 affect of imports from OPEC, 438 imports from USSR, 183, 437
455
net exports/imports, 85, 166 offshore exploration, 88 reserves, 443 transportation, 87
Permanent Committee structure, 307-8 proposals for exchange of goods, 80 rationalization of energy-intensive industries, 139, 141 recoverable fossil fuel reserves, 31 trade embargoes, 427 unwillingness to provide information, 364, 365 see also Bulgaria; Czechoslovakia; German Democratic Republic, Hungary; Poland, Romania; USSR; Yugoslavia
Czechoslovakia Adria pipeline project, 87, 115, 187 coal: imports, 97
production, 96 reserves, 1 57
electricity: cooperation with Austria, 390 imports, 99
energy consumption per capita, 167 natural gas: imports, 90,91
role as transit country, 92 net importer of energy, 111 nuclear power: generation programme, 93,94
industry suppliers, 92-3 oil: and gas consumption, 137
imports, 84, 85 production and consumption, 143
Defence see National security Defence industries, 429-30 Demand see Energy demand Detente, 123
effect on CMEA's energy economy, 78 effect on economic growth, 355 importance to cooperation, 413 nuclear non-proliferation treaty, 378
Deutsches I nstitut fur Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
USSR oil production projection, 151 Direct thermal heating, 257-8 Disarmament in Europe, 376
effect on energy demand, 118 District heating, 224
in Poland, 320-1 projected market penetration, 247 share in Swiss projection, 327 waste heat utilization, 345
Dobozi, Istvan, paper: 281-306; discussion, 352 Drilling equipment: for geothermal rasources, 263 Druzhba oil pipeline, 87, 316 Dubna, 373-4
456
DuMoulin, Hans, paper. 274-6; discussion: 352 Durnrohr high voltage coupling station, 106
ECE see Economic Commission for Europe Eastern Europe see Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA- Eastern Europe) Econometric functions, 45 Economic Commission for Europe (ECE)
categorisation of oil reserves, 146 CMEA: coal balance study 157-8
oil projection, 159, 160, 161 Coal Committee evaluation, 160, 398 Committee on Electric Power, 370-1 cooperation projects, 427 data on East-West energy trade, 105-6 record of cooperation, 414-15 role in East-West trade and cooperation, 30-1,120 selected activities, 42-3 USSR: natural gas reserves study, 155
oil production projection, 147, 150 work programme, 369
Economic growth alternative strategies, 46 determinant of energy demand, 223 E. Europe: anticipated rate, 300 effect on oil market stability, 128 energy substituted for labour, 22 estimates based on scenarios, 52-3, 54 in American energy debate, 174-5 international factors, 135 linked with energy consumption, 45-58, 119,218-20,282 possible scenarios, 223, 244 projected rate to 2000, 131 slowdown, 125, 422
effect on consumption, 22, 292 social aims, 50
Economy agreements to avoid world collapse, 433 change. influencing energy demand, 21-2 disequilibrium in socialist states, 422 East-West relations, 417
avoidance of breakdown, 426-8 current position, contributing factors, 421 historical aspects, 419-20 limiting factors, 425-6
future energy demand: derived from change analysis, 45 gap between developed and developing countries, 431 link with energy situation, 125,218-20 mutual international dependence, 423 need for World Conference, 431-3, 447 number of individual national systems, 423
recession: related to oil dependence, 130 use of integrative structural models, 46
Economy of scale, in cooperative measures, 121 Efficiency rates
affecting consumption data, 284 applied to new Swedish plant, 343 growth of concern, 217 historical improvements, 221, 240
electricity generation (1924-70), 221, 238
in producing and processing, 49 increases, 24 of coal in boiler plants, 407 of conversion from final to useful energy, 226
Eighteen Nations Disarmament Committee, 376 Eklund, Sigvard, paper: 369-78 Ekofisk, 66 Elasticities, 45, 203, 205, 274
energy-GNP coefficient, 284, 289 income elasticity of demand, 24, 203 of demand: influencing energy demand, 22 of substitution, 203, 206 of supply, 206
Electricity Austria: consumption, 380,382
exchange with neighbours, 383-4 imports and exports, 388 role in supply, 379-92 structure of supply, 379-80,380, 381
CMEA: cooperative schemes, 98, 100, 315 general agreement, 318 net exports, 78 output, 138
conversion losses, 218, 220-1 cooperation in supply, 370-1
East-West, 106 demand: growth rates, 23
projections, 224,245 ECE perspective analysis, 42 ECE policy objectives, 69-70 from alternative sources, 272-3 high voltage coupling systems, 106, 392 Hungaro-Czechoslovak dam agreement, 100 interconnection of national grids, 23, 28, 65,385
between CMEA countries, 98, 140-1 between CMEA and Yugoslavia, 82 between East and West Europe, 142 ECE project, 31, 42
projected market penetration, 247 projected share in energy demand, 245 relative price, 198 rural area distribution, 42
UK: requirements, 273 USA: decline in demand growth, 176 USSR: transmission systems, 98, 315 W. Europe: dependence levels, 72-3 see also Hydroelectricity; Nuclear energy
End-use energy demand, 48 correlation with production and processing efficiency rate, 49-50 factors tending to increase, 49 in GDR, 56 real price changes, 197-9
Energy conversion equivalents, 4 definitions of primary, secondary, final and useful, 218, 235
Energy balance, 286 CMEA, 159-62
imbalance, 296-7 primary energy balance (1965-90). 40-1 shifts in development, 293-4 structural readjustment in East, 302 W. Europe, 62,70-1,208, 211
Energy consumption and trade (1973-6), 108 anticipated rise to 2000, 131 CMEA forecast to 2000, 445 correlation with income, 203 correlation with individual prosperity, 47-8 ECE studies, 43 effect of price levels, 193 in Japan, 212,213 in USA, 171,176
per GOP unit, 217,234 in USSR: end of oil substitution phase, 440-1 increasing share of developing regions, 230 linked with economic growth, 45-58, 119, 218-20,282 per capita, 204
in CMEA, 167, 168 in W. Europe, 167, 168 use in forecasts, 45
per GOP unit, 252 i_n USA, 217,234
production and consumption centres, 312 rises related to industrial output, 285 specific: influencing energy demand, 22 world total, 20, 210
growth, 217,233 Energy demand, 21-4,32-3, 37
assessment, 224-5, 244 balance with supply possible, 26 CMEA,32,37
growth, 441-2 management, 300-2 of minor countries, 79
457
problems pre-1973, 297-8 determinants, 32-3, 38
primary,21-2 effect of price level, 193, 205 effect of technological improvements, 225-8 for non-energy purposes, 23 forecast to 2000,406
uncertainty, 214 from developing regions, 229 growth inevitable, 275 long-term strategies, 222-8, 241 management, 289, 291 structural changes to regulate, 291-2 Switzerland: long-term models, 327,335
possible scenarios, 324-7,332-3, 336 variables, 275-8 W. Europe: correlation with living standards, 62, 117
for industrial growth, 282 W. Germany, 356-8 see also End-use energy demand
Energy industry development in CMEA, 312-14 development of efficiency, 46 growth strategies derived from model, 52 integration into overall development, 50 long-term planning essential, 46 measures to decrease consumption, 50 production and trade (1973-6), 107 production/processing lines in GDR, 57
Energy reserves, 20-1 determinants for supply, 25 national, 293 uneven distribution in CMEA, 298
Energy resources depletion, determinant for energy supplies, 25 exhaustible and inexhaustible, 269 imbalance with consumption rate, 308, 404 national, in E. Europe, 299 of minor CMEA countries, 79 of USA, 170-1 renewable, 20
in Swiss long-term model, 327 production potential limited, 229
secondary, increasing use, 49 summary, 228, 253 with higher efficiency rates, 48 see also Coal; Electricity; End-use energy; Natural gas; New energy sources; Nuclear energy; Oil
Energy supplies, 25-30,34-5
458
analysis of primary sources, 45 balance with demand, 25, 26, 117 by 2000, 29-30
CMEA-problems, pre-1973, 296, 298-9 cost estimates, 348 diversification of imports, 286, 294 dominated by large corporations, 282 future systems, 228-30 in E. Europe, 34 in Swiss scenarios, 325, 334 increasing interdependence, 135 integration within CMEA, 3024 link with economy, 125 major determinants, 25 multiple uncertainties, 288 need for long-term policies, 288,290 slowdown in growth rates, 26 step-function changes, 122 Swedish options, 346-7 transition to more plentiful resources, 134 uncertainties resulting in economic malaise, 125-8 USA projection uncertainties, 176-7
Energy trade, 39 avoidance of external dependence, 420 CMEA,39, 109
between countries, 77, 80 political aspects, 303 purchases from other countries, 80
consumption and trade (1973-8), 108 East-West: likely to remain small, 28 exposure to world markets, 122, 123 imbalances, 125, 126, 133 long-term agreements, 294-5 problems in East-West supplies, 104-5, 114,116,120,121 production and trade (1973-8), 107 rate of expansion, 25 reducing French import dependence, 351 W. Europe, 64-5 see also under individual energy sources (eg: Oil)
Entropy, 219 Environmental protection, 50, 432
determinant for energy supplies, 25 in Swiss evaluation, 339 popular organizations, 283
Equipment development: for geothermal resources, 263
for nuclear energy, 317 in USSR, 188
W. German trade with East, 98, 359 Euratom, 67
work on energy policy, 68 Eurodif, 66 Europe
indigenous oil supply, 131-2 oil pipeline system, 65, 75 percentage of world energy supplies, 25
•e 11/so Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (E. Europe), Western Europe
European Coal and Steel Community opening up coal market, 67 supporting coal against oil imports, 68 work on energy policy, 68
European Communities, 66 European Economic Community (EECI
coal trade, 64 ,115 consumption forecasts, 289 decline in consumption related to output, 285 discussions with CMEA, 430 encouraging cooperative policies, 295 energy policy, 68
after 1973 oil crisis, 69-70 proposals, 68-9
rising energy dependency, 282 Treaty: scope in energy matters, 68
European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). 374 Exploration
by CMEA, 83, 317 offshore resources, 88
ECE activity, 42 for non-renewable energy sources, 20-1 in difficult areas, 27, 28, 310-11 long-term effects, 393 USSR: acceleration possibility, 188
administrative problems, 150 untapped potential, 170
Fast breeder reactors, 29, 228 CMEA programma, 92 cooperation, 66, 372-3 research projects, 70 Superphenix project, 207
Finland supplies from CMEA sources, 80
Fluidal combustion furnaces, 407 Forecasting techniques, 45
long-term: economic growth/energy consumption interaction, 51 range of instruments, 45-6
Fossil fuels depletion of reserves, 21, 36 increase in production and conversion, 29 projected efficiency improvement, 248 recoverable reserves, 31 remaining resources, 229-30, 256 trade, 39 •e 11/so Coal; Hydrocarbons; Natural gas; Oil
France coal production reduced, 63 energy balance trends, 71 energy dependence level, 73
energy policy, 351 limited interest in East-West cooperation, 363 natural gas: Dutch imports, 64 nuclear energy: emphasis on, 294 oil policy, 363 relative fuel prices (1973-8), 200-1 •ea/so UFIPTE
Franco-Iberian Union for Generation and Transmission
of Electricity (UFIPTE). 384 Frank, Wilhelm, papers: 103-14, 121;
discussion; 115,119-20 Fuel see End-use energy Fusion energy see Nuclear fusion energy
Gamper, Elmar, 447 Geopressured resources, 262 Geothermal energy, 70, 261-3, 277
share in Swiss projections, 326, 334 German Democratic Republic
changes in use of net cash income, 47 coal: brown coal reserves, 157
imports, 97 production, 96
economic growth rate, 48 electricity: imports, 99 end-use energy utilization, 56 energy consumption per capita, 167 energy demand supplied by fossil fuels, 57 expected doubling of household consumption, 47 lignite-briquette exports, 95 mining equipment, 98 natural gas: imports, 90, 91 net importer of energy, 111 nuclear power generation, 93, 94 oil: and gas, increase in consumption, 137
imports, 84, 85 port facilities, 87
population, economic growth and energy consumption, 58 production and consumption, 143
Germany, Federal Republic (FAG) coal: production reduced, 63
stock holding, 207 economic links with East, 355, 364-5 effect of geographical and political position, 361-2 energy balance trends, 70 energy demand, 356-8 energy dependence levels, 72 natural gas: imports from Holland, 64 producing and processing efficiency, 50, 57 relative fuel prices ( 1973-8), 20D-1
459
trade in equipment with East, 98, 359 Gouni, Lucien, papers: 61-75, 415; discussion, 115 Government policies
changes in USA, 177 determinant for energy supplies, 25 effect on overall supply, 393 effect on projections, 115 increasing institutionalization, 288-9 influencing energy demand, 22 influencing external relations, 418 leading to world imbalance, 129 of E. European countries, 281, 296-305 of W. European countries, 281, 282-96 on coal, 399 on energy R & D, 207
Greece, see SU DE L Gushee, David, paper: 169-91; discussion: 274
Hafele, Wolf, paper. 217-56; discussion. 274-5 Hardt, John P., paper: 169-91; discussion: 274 Heat pumps, 224, 226
possible UK strategy, 271 projected market penetration, 247
Heating see Space heating Helsinki conference (1975), 361,369 Heynitz, Achim von, paper: 355-67 High voltage coupling stations, 106, 392 Hojeberg, Mats, paper: 341-50 Holland, see Netherlands Holzl, Alois, paper: 217-56 Honigmann, Karl, paper: 379-92, discussion: 412 Hot dry rock, 262-3 Hungary
Adria pipeline project, 87, 115, 187 coal: imports, 97
production, 96 electricity: cooperation with Austria, 390
imports, 99 natural gas: imports, 90, 91 net importer of energy, 111 nuclear power: generation, 94,95 oil: imports, 84, 85 production and consumption, 143
Hydro-accumulating electric power stations, 140 Hydrocarbons
allocation for non-anergy purposes, 23 substituted by coal and shale-based gases and liquids, 29 see also Fossi I fuels
Hydroelectricity
460
CMEA: production and consumption, 143 resources of minor countries, 77 schemes, 100, 140
ECE seminar, 42
Emosson plant, 65 growth will be lower than electricity demand,27 Switzerland: share in projections, 326, 334 UK: possible strategy, 271 USSR: in 19505,181
plans, 88 policy issues, 185 projection, 158 resources, 77
Hydrogen utilization, 263-4, 277 Hydro-mechanization of coal mining, 410 Hydrothermal resources, 261-2
IAEA see International Atomic Energy Authority lEA see International Energy Agency IEP see International Energy Programme IFRCsee International Fusion Research Council IIASA see International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IN IS see International Nuclear Information Service Imported energy sources
demand from centrally planned economies, 29 rise in European dependence, 25 will stabilize, 27
Industry energy intensive, 49
analysis and prediction of development, 53, 56-7 development in post-war E. Europe, 297 in CMEA, 139,141,167,301 redeployment near energy sources, 24, 28,29,119 reduction using new technologies, 318 relocation among CMEA countries, 301
in USSR, 79 selective analysis and forecasting, 45 Swedish, 342 transfer away from W. Europe, 292 vulnerable to supply disturbance, 284
fast growth for low energy consuming industries, 49 growth in developing countries, 217 location influenced by coalfields, 62 reduction in share of consumption, 24 structure changes, 285, 286 Swedish energy conservation programme, 345-6 uses of solar energy, 258 ways of reducing energy demand, 225, 246
SIHIII/so Energy industry Inflation, 422
contribution of energy situation, 125, 126 effect on Soviet economy, 183
Information sources IN IS on nuclear energy, 371-2 IIHI 11/so Statistics
Input-output model, 53, 56 Institutional factors, impact on energy use, 25, 118 Insulation of buildings, 48, 70, 207,227,273, 321,325,344 lnteratomenergo, 92 lnteratominstrument, 92 Interest rates, determinant for energy supplies, 25 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEAI, 369-78
application of safeguards, 378 collaboration with JINR, 374 Nuclear Data programme, 372 purpose, 369-70
International Energy Agency (lEAl, 26, 66 consumer cooperation, 295-6 coordination of R & D effort, 207 evidence of increased institutionalization in Wast, 123 future supply/demand assessment, 130-1 limiting imports from OPEC, 356 study of oil market stabilization, 127
International Energy Programma (IEPI, 363, 365 International Fusion Research Council (IFRCI, 373 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASAI
evaluation of energy demands, 222-8,241 purpose, and member nations, 370
International Nuclear Information Service (INISI, 371-2 International Union of Producers and Distributors of Electricity (UN I PEDE), 67, 370,371 Investments
allocation, 48 by USSR, 303 hampered by energy uncertainty, 126 in alternatives to oil, 134 in foreign countries, 295 in Sweden, 342 in USSR, 79-80
contributions from CMEA countries, 80
insufficiency, 125 Ionizing rays, research into, 70
Iran delivery of natural gas, 105
to USSR,90 disruption of energy exports, 126
immediate effect on energy situation, 127
Italy energy balance trends, 70 energy dependence levels, 72 real fuel prices, 202 see also SUDEL
JET IIHI Joint European Torus JINR see Joint Institute for Nuclear Research Japan
coal and oil consumption, 174 decline in energy consumption growth, 212,213 increase in oil consumption, 129 real fuel prices, 202
Joint European Torus (JET), 66, 70 Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (JINR), 373-4
Khan, Arshad M., paper: 217-56 Knop, Hans, paper: 45-60; discussion: 119
Labour see Work force Lantzke, Ulf, paper: 125-36; discussion: 165-6 Levcik, Friedrich, paper: 165-8 Lignite
Austrian resources, 379 CMEA: output, 138
resources, 77, 95 Liquid fuels
projected share in energy demand, 245 share in E. Europe energy balance, 302
Living standards, 289 affected by economic growth, 50 correlation with energy demand, 224
in W. Europe, 62, 117 determinant for energy supplies, 25 effect of energy demand slowdown, 23 Swiss policy objective, 323
Logistic curve, 221,239 Lukaszewicz, Aleksender, paper: 116·20; dis· cussion: 121
Mexican oil, 393 influence on market stability, 128 output, 209 US interest, 179-180
Microwave energy conversion, 260-1 Middle East disputes, worsened by oil competi· tion, 127 Mining see Coal: extraction technology
461
Modelling techniques in evaluation of future energy demands, 222-3 of complex social relations, 46 to forecast economic growth/energy consumption interaction, 51-2, 119
Monetary instability, 125, 126 Moscow Test Ban Treaty (1963), 377 Motor spirit
inelastic to price changes, 206 prices, 198
change lag, 199 taxation related to engine capacity, 273
Motor vehicles concentration of consumption, 24 engine design, 176, 206 influencing energy demand, 22
Muller, Friedmann, paper: 355-67 Muszkiet, Tadeusz, paper: 307-22; discussion: 351-352
National Centre for Alternative Technology (UK), 269 National security, 418,421
affected by international dependence, 425,429 considerations in East-West relations, 447 defence spending, 429 importance of bilateral and general agreement, 428-9 US national security fears, 174
Natural gas
462
affecting efficiency rating, 50 Austria: resources, 379
role in supply and transport, 412-13 CMEA: cooperation in exploration, 319
internal trade, 89, 90, 91 net exports, 78 output, 138 possible W. German market, 358, 359 production (1966-771, 314
and consumption, 143 reserves and balance prospects, 154-6 resources of minor countries, 77
change in demand pattern, 22 contribution by 1990, 165 Czech-soviet agreement, 82 ECE perspective analysis, 42 EEC policy objectives, 69 GDR: imports, 57 Holland: resources, 63, 64 lEA analysis, 132 interconnecting systems, 28 liquid, long development period, 134 N. America: alternative sources, 179-80 Orenburg pipeline, 316-17 pay-back agreements, 142
price: US policy, 178 recovery efficiency, 21 relative price, 198 resource constraints, 29 rising share of imports, 28 supply level stagnating, 27,404-5 switch from oil, 130 Switzerland: share in projection, 326,334 USSR: exports to CMEA, 153
need for Western technology, 183 planned increases, 89 policy issues, 184-5 resources, 77, 181 transmission methods, 189 used to conserve oil, 152-3
W. Europe: dependence levels, 72-3 internal trade, 64-5 planned increases, 212 transmission methods, 64, 74
world resources estimate, 403 and imbalance with utilization, 309, 310
sees/so Fossil fuels; North Sea oil and gas Netherlands
energy balance trends, 71 energy dependence level, 73 natural gas resources, 63, 64 net energy exporter, 293 relative fuel prices ( 1973-8), 200-1
New energy sources, 70, 257-67 ECE: projects, 31
seminar, 42 long-term prospects, 395 requirement for new oi I discoveries, 128 small share in energy supply total, 405 UK, possibilities, 269-74 US government attitude, 175-6 USSR policy issues, 185 sees/so Geothermal energy; Solar energy; Tidal power; Wave power; Wind power
North America inclusion in ECE, 30 rise in net imports, 28 sees/so United States of America
North Sea oil and gas, 133,209 causing fall in net W. European imports, 27 cooperation in development, 66 effect on UK policy, 63,362-3 importance in projections, 131 influence on market stability, 128 peak production factors, 131-2
Norway oil depletion policies, 132 possible energy self-sufficiency, 293
Nuclear Data programme, 372
Nuclear energy affecting efficiency rating, 50 CMEA: cooperation, 92-3, 94, 95
production and consumption, 143 programme, 140
contribution by 1990, 165 cooperative programmes, 371-3
East-West, on safety, 414 EEC policy objectives, 69 equipment development, 317 France: increases in production, 351 IAEA/IIASA Risk Assessment Project, 370 Khmelnitski power plant, 315 long-term implications, 394 national programmes re-evaluated, 293 number of European reactors, 377-8 planned rapid increase, 27 possible development, 405 power plants take decade to build, 134 pressurized water reactor (PWRI system, 66, 192 public concern, 274 recognition of increasing role, 369 safe transport code, 375 safety research, 66, 70 Sweden: debate, 346-7
referendum, 342, 347 Switzerland: share in projection, 326, 334 unsuitable for East-West trade, 105 USA,179 USSR: monopoly within CMEA, 158
plans, 88 policy issues, 185 PWRs and RBMKs, 92-3
W. Europe: planned increases, 212 world debate, 269
Nuclear fusion energy international cooperation, 373 need for rapid cooperation, 29 research, 66
intensification, 27 Nuclear weapon non-proliferation treaty, 376-8
OECD IfNI Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEC IfNI Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Oil
Adria pipeline,87,115,187 affecting efficiency rating, 50 expected decline in use, 310 Austria: resources, 379 CMEA: cooperation in exploration,141, 319
growth in demand, 441
import/export markets, 83-4, 85, 86 net exports, 78 output, 138 production (1966-771, 314
and consumption, 143 refining process development, 141 reserves, 443
of minor countries, 77 share of consumption, 446
comparison of OPEC and CMEA sources, 357 consumption. fall in rate of increase, 209 continuing as largest imported fuel, 27, 28 deep sea exploration, 395 demand: change in pattern, 22 development time for new fields, 147 Druzhba pipeline, 82, 316 EEC: policy objectives, 69
tariff, 69 East-West competition, 413 effect of small economic changes on demand, 393 European pipeline system, 65, 75, 115 GDR: processing, 57 lEA: regulatory policy, 127, 361-2 imports: geographic diversification, 294 in world energy strategy, 275 increased tanker capacities, 199 indigenous European sources, 131-2 interconnecting transmission systems, 28 maintenance of minimum stock levels, 207 Mexican, 128, 179-80,209,393 peak extraction period, 403 planned decline in share, 212 price: changes (1970-79), 196
creating vicious circle, 354 declining to 1973, 171 effect of market situation, 197 fourfold increase (1973/74), 22, 129-30, 196
effect on CMEA countries, 81, 299 effect on economy measures, 207 effect on W. European policies, 285-6,287 effect on world recession, 173 impact in USSR, 182-3 impact on coal production, 397 influencing cooperative schemes, 63 no resulting shortages, 26
importance in USSR trade balance, 437 pressure from Iranian situation, 127 real price of crude, 194-7, 195 Tripoli and Teheran agreements, 69 US policy changes, 177-8
producers control production and depletion, 26
463
production levels in producer states, 128 reasons for growth in use, 310 recovery efficiency, 21 resource constraints, 29 supplies: competition for, 126-7, 133
global position, 132·3 need for diversification, 358 overemphasis on limitations, 353 Sweden: effect of conservation pro· gramme, 345 taxation of products, 202
Teheran and Tripoli agreements, 69 US: changes in policy, 177
imports, 171, 172 requirements, 176
USSR: difference between planned and maximum output, 149
external demand, 151·3 importance to trade balance, 437 move from coal in 1960s, 181 net importer by 1985, 80 new refineries, 150 pipeline network, 87 policy issues, 184
long- and short-term options, 186 price increases to CMEA, 183 projections for 1985, 147, 152 reserves and production, 146-51, 437 resources, 77
from Siberian fields, 79, 87,88 trade pattern, 153
with West, 437 transport system, 87
water flood technique, 148, 149, 151 W. Europe: consumption increases (1950-731, 129
dependence levels, 63, 12·3 investment, 283
will remain significant form of energy, 27 world reserves and imbalance with use, 309,310 world resources estimate, 403 see 11/so Fossil fuels; North Sea oil and gas
Orenburg gas project, 26, 89, 92, 183, 188, 316·17 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 66
464
coal demand increasing, 165 consumption forecasts, 289 decline in oil consumption post-1973, 130 estimate of USSR gas reserves, 154,155 implications for East-West cooperation, 162 oil consumption rate increases, 128 USSR oil production projection, 147, 151, 159, 160, 161
Organization of Nuclear Electricity Producers, 67 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
ability to satisfy potential global needs, 133 advantages as source of oil, 357 method of arriving at oil prices, 194
Petro Studies Co. projection, 159, 160, 160 implications for East-West cooperation, 162 USSR oil production projection, 147, 149· 50,153
Photovoltaic cells, 259-60 currently under investigation, 265
Planning techniques, for energy consumption, 45 timescale in energy industry, 46
"Pianprojekt" model, 52-3, 54 Poland
coal: exports, 95,97 to West, 158, 166 importance of resources, 313 output increased, 399 production, 96 reserves, 145, 157
district heating, 320-1 electricity: exports, 99
supply contract with Austria, 106, 390 energy: production and trade, 107
self-sufficiency, 103 heating stations, 320·1 investment contributions received, 80 natural gas: imports, 90, 91 nuclear power: generation, 94, 95 oil: imports, 84, 85
port facilities, 87 production and consumption, 143
Political considerations, 354 effects on oil supply, 133 effects on USSR energy policy, 189 efforts to change world power balance, 424-5 in East-West economic cooperation, 104, 114,418,434,447 in energy policy, 286 in regional conflicts, 432 in W. German cooperation with E. Europe, 360·1 of CMEA energy trade, 303 risk of instability of structures, 126 structure of W. European countries, 61-2
Population anticipated rates of growth, 223,243, 244 changes in consumption of goods and services, 46
determinant of energy demand, 223 growth in end-use energy demand, 56 influencing energy demand, 21 problem of overpopulation, 432 slowdown in growth, 24
Portugal see UFTIPTE Pressurized water reactors (PWRs), 66
in CMEA, 92-3 Price elasticity of demand, 203 Price elasticity of supply, 203 Prices
Bucharest pricing principle, 86 CMEA strucure (pre-19751, 86 concept of relative price, 193-4 determinants for energy supplies, 25 effect of increases: in Swiss scenario, 325
on economic and monetary stability, 30
effect on demand and consumption, 193, 205 effect on recoverable reserves, 21 from USSR to CMEA customers, 139 increases avoidable, 135 influence on energy policies, 281 limited use as regulator, 288, 292 mechanism in CMEA, 80 of energy exports from CMEA, 106, 121 reasons for national variations, 199 related to industrial cost structures, 284-5 relative: in five W. European countries, 200-1
influencing energy demand, 22 wholesale and retail changes, 198 see also Oil: price
Production factors constraints on, 24 costs of alternatives, 25
Prospecting see Exploration Protectionism, 125, 126 Pumps, electric submersible, 148
Radiation protection, 374-5 Radio-active waste programmes, 70, 375-6 Railway locomotives, increased efficiency, 48 Raw materials, energy cost of processing, 49 Ray, George F., papers. 193-216, 269-74; discussion: 352, 353 Recovery methods
ECE project, 31 need for cooperation, 28
Recovery rates efficiency increase necessary, 27 influencing USSR policy, 187
Refining conversion losses, 218, 220-1 costs, 199 increased effort for light oil products, 319
Regional development, determinants for energy supplies, 25 Reserves, see Energy reserves and under individual energy sources (e.g.: Coal, Oil, etc.) Rieger, Philipp, 3 Rock, hot dry, 262-3 Romania
coal: imports, 97, 98 production, 96
electricity: cooperation with Austria, 390 exports, 99
natural gas: exports, 91 imports, 90 reserves, 145, 154
net importer of energy, 111 nuclear power: generation, 93, 94, 95 oil: and gas reserves, 145
exports, 85 imports, 83, 84 port facilities, 87 self-sufficiency, 151
production and consumption, 143
SUDEL (Regional Group for Coordinating Production and Transmission of Electricity between Austria, Greece, Italy and Yugoslavia), 384 Safoschnik, Rudolf, paper: 412-13 Samotlor oil field, 147-9, 181,439,440 Satellite Power Systems (SPSI, 260-1 Saudi Arabia
higher production levels uncertain, 127 Saunders, Christopher T., papers: 9-18, 115-16; discussion, 120 Schmidt, Hans L., paper: 323-39 Shell International Petroleum Co., 274, 275-6 Siberian oil fields, 79, 87, 88 Silicon technology, for photovoltaic cells, 259, 260 Skoda works, 92 Slurry transport method, 109 Snyder, R., 155,159 Social development see Living standards Solar cells see Photovoltaic cells Solar energy, 70,224,257-61,277-8
ECE seminar, 42 in Swiss projections, 326, 334 intensification of R & D, 27 limited production potential, 229 possible UK strategy, 270 projected market penetration, 247 US research, 180, 258
Solid fuels increasing use by CMEA countries, 318-19 share in E. Europe energy balance, 302
Space heating, 227 alternative supply sources, 272
465
Swedish building code, 344 Spain 11H1 UFIPTE Statistics
deficiencies in data base, 22 ECE collections, 43 limited from CMEA countries, 304, 394, 447 USSR oil reserves (estimated), 441
Steel industry, consumption of coke, 227, 249 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 155, 157 Stockpiling, 286, 296 Stranz, Benon, paper: 397-412 Sweden, 351
Energy Commission, 341-2 energy policy, 341-50 supply/conservation tradeoff, 342-3
Switzerland, 351 constitutional position, 323, 328-9 energy situation, 323-39 fallback strategy, 337 reducing import dependency, 328, 338 relative fuel prices (1973-8). 200-1
Synfuels, US development, 179
Tariff systems, 273 Taxation
in Swiss policy, 323, 328 of motor vehicles, 273 on oil products, 202 proceeds to energy R & D, 277
Technology dangers of, 432 developed in defence industries, 430 development up to early 1970s, 26 imports by USSR from West, 438,447 linked with industrial evolution, 369 market for W. Germany, 359 new, 277-8
CMEA problems, 301 development in CMEA, 83, 320-2 factor in energy demand, 225-8 for less energy intensive industries, 318 long lead times, 278 market penetration, 25 related to economic slowdown, 291 R & D and replacement costs, 222
wariness in cooperation, 420 Teheran agreement on oil prices, 69 Temperature gradient exploitation, 219
intensification of R & D, 27 Thermal heating, direct, 257-8 Thermodynamics, laws of creating upper limit on efficiency, 221 Tidal power
466
intensification of R & D, 27 possible UK strategy, 271
Trede IIHI Energy trede Transport
energy demand, 225, 227-8 of radioactive materials, 375 passenger: energy demand, 251 urban, 24
Transport/Transmission of energy CMEA, 79, 316
coal: long-distance, 411 cooperation, 109
cooperation in R & D, 28 costs, 199 ECE activity, 42 hydrogen, 263 importance in world situation, 308 intergovernmental schemes, 21, 117 of East European exports, 105 reducing requirements, 49 USSR: necessity to accelerate programme, 188
of electricity, 98 of oil, 87
W. Europe: of natural gas, 64, 74 Trend exploration technique, 45 Tripoli agreement on oil prices, 69
UCPTE IIHI Union pour Ia Coordination de Ia Production et Transport de I'Eiectricite UFIPTE (Franco-Iberian Union for Generation and Transmission of Electricity), 384 UNIPEDE sfHI International Union of Producers and Distributors of Electricity Ultracentrifugation, 66 Unconventional energy sources IIHI New energy sources Unemployment levels, 125, 126
effect of declining exports to East, 438 influence on energy demand, 291
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) coal: exports, 97, 98
to West, 158 mining equipment, 98 production, 96 reserves, 157
electricity: exports, 99 transmission projects, 98
energy demand and determinants (1965-90),33 energy dependence of minor CMEA countries, 79 energy exports as percentage of total, 112 energy policy, 184-6
administration, 185-6 alternative scenarios, 187-90 conflicts between short and long term, 186-7 historical aspects, 181-4
energy production and trade, 107, 122 energy resources, 77 energy self-sufficiency,103, 169-70 energy supplies (1965-90), 35
anticipated increase, 26 energy trade. 39
exports to other CMEA countries, 137, 138, 139, 145, 746, 303 fall in export surplus likely, 28 net exports as percentage of home consumption, 25 value of exports (1972-6), 770 with Germany, 355
extraction from remote sources, 123 hard currency problems, 183-4 hydroelectricity and nuclear energy, 158-9 increase in energy-intensive enterprises, 188 natural gas. imports and exports, 90, 91
increase in percentage of total supplies, 27 pay-back agreements, 142 reserves and balance prospects, 154-6
nuclear power. 158-9 generation, 92-3, 94 programme, 378
oil: effect of possible imports from OPEC, 438
exports, 85, 88, 358, 443 to other CMEA countries, 84, 86 to West, 145,150,151,153,181-2
geographical division of production, 748 growth in production level, 440 lack of new finds, 182 long-term reserves, 441 pipeline construction, 87 possibility of becoming net importer, 153 problems of providing infrastructure, 439 production, 147-51, 437
projections, 187 reserves, 146-7, 437
stagnation of proved reserves, 147 technology from the West, 88, 413
trade, 153 West Siberian fields, 439-40
primary energy balance, 47 production and consumption: compared with USA, 169 recoverable fossil fuel reserves, 31 use of loan funds, 183
Union pour Ia Coordination de Ia Production et Transport de I'Eiectricitli (UCPTE), 106, 370, 371
object, 384 United Kingdom (UK)
"Alternative" energy strategies, 269-74 coal: exports toW. Europe, 64
output increased (1968), 399 production reduced, 63
energy balance trends, 77 energy dependence level, 73 energy self-sufficiency, 293 oil: depletion policies, 132
effect on policy of North Sea oil, 362-3 North Sea resources, 63
relative fuel prices (1973-6), 200.1 total energy requirements, 272-3 uses of alternative energy, 269-74
United Nations! (UN) studies of future economic development, 424 see also Economic Commission for Europe IECE)
United States of America (USA) coal: output, 399 creation of Department of Energy, 175 energy consumption: per capita, 171
per GOP unit, 217,234 per GNP unit, 167
energy imports necessary, 169-70 energy policy. administration, 180-1
historical aspects, 170-1 oil: effect of price increases, 173-4 production, imports and consumption, 712
compared with USSR, 169 real fuel prices (1974-77), 202 see also North America
Ural-Volga region oil fields, 147-6,181,189, 440
peak earlier than expected, 182 Uranium
enriched: USSR exports to West, 158 enrichment project, 66
East-West research cooperation, 105, 142
prospecting in EEC territories, 70 reserves in USSR, 158 resource constraints, 29 supply situation, 228-9 world resources, 405
Urban transport, 24 Urbanization
concentration of consumption, 24 influencing energy demand, 22
Urenco, 66
WAES see Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies Waste energy, 218
increasing utilization, 49, 345 Water flood techniques of oil production, 148, 149, 757
467
Wave power intensification of R & D, 27 possible UK strategy, 271
West European Coal Producers Association, 66-7 Western Europe
468
CMEA share of import requirements, 112, 113 coal and oil consumption (1925-741, 174 comparison with E. European energy sources, 1 03 energy balance, 62,208, 211 energy consumption per capita, 167, 168 energy demand (1965-90), 37
and determinants (1965-90), 32 energy market, 64-5 energy policy, 66-70
analysis of policy responses, 281, 282-96 policy document (1962), 68
energy production and trade, 107 energy supplies (1965-90), 34
anticipated increase, 26 energy trade, 39
factors influencing trade with East, 122-3 imports from East and USSR, 28 increasing energy dependence, 25 increasing imports with depletion of reserves, 29 negligible exports to East, 105 reasons for increasing trade with East, 114 share of total USSR exports, 110, 111 temporary fall in net imports, 27
indicators of energy economy, 211 natural gas. stagnating share of total supplies, 27 nuclear energy production, 27 overall political s~ructure, 61-2 post-war growth based on oil, 129 primary energy balance, 40 recoverable fossi I fuel reserves, 31
Wind power, 258-9 intensification of R & D, 27 possible UK strategy, 270 share in Swiss projections, 326, 334 turbine design, 259
Wood, 326, 334 Work force
allocation, 48, 117 international division of labour, 418
Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies (WAES), 226, 405 World
energy demand (1965-90), 37 and determinants (1965-90). 33
energy supplies (1965-901, 35 primary energy balance, 41 recoverable fuel reserves, 31 trade systems affecting energy, 45
Yugoslavia Adria pipeline project, 87 integration with Austria into electricity supply, 389 nuclear energy convention, 92 seea/soSUDEL
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