APPENDIX L-3 GROUNDWATER QUALITY TIME … AFB/KAFB4499/Appendices/L...APPENDIX L-3 . GROUNDWATER QUALITY TIME-SERIES GRAPHS -400-300 ... exhibit a random normal distribution (Walpole

APPENDIX L-3

Kirtland AFB BFF March 2017 Quarterly and Annual Report – October-December 2016 SWMU ST-106/SS-111

APPENDIX L-3

GROUNDWATER QUALITY TIME-SERIES GRAPHS

-400

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Sample Date

Chloride, Sulfate, Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen, Calcium, Sodium, and Oxidation Reduction Potential Concentration Trends in Well KAFB-106005

Chloride

Sulfate

Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen

Calcium

Sodium

ORP (mV)

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Sample Date

Chloride, Sulfate, Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen, Calcium, Sodium, and Oxidation Reduction Potential Concentration Trends in Well KAFB-106009

Chloride

Sulfate


Calcium

Sodium

ORP (mV)

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Chloride, Sulfate, Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen, Calcium, Sodium, and Oxidation Reduction Potential Concentration Trends in Well KAFB-106012R

Chloride

Sulfate


Calcium

Sodium

ORP (mV)

APPENDIX L-3

ATTACHMENTS A Mann-Kendall Results Well KAFB-106005

B Mann-Kendall Results Well KAFB-106009

C Mann-Kendall Results Well KAFB-106012R

TABLES

TABLES

L-3-1 Mann-Kendall Analysis Input Concentrations Well KAFB-106005

L-3-2 Mann-Kendall Analysis Input Concentrations Well KAFB-106009

L-3-3 Mann-Kendall Analysis Input Concentrations Well KAFB-106012R

L-3-4 Water Quality Mann-Kendall Results Summary

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AFB Air Force Base

LOQ Laboratory limit of quantification

ORP Oxidation Reduction Potential

mg/L milligrams per liter

mV millivolts

Q4 2016 fourth quarter of the year, October 1 through December 31, 2016

S Kendall Score

τ Kendall rank correlation coefficient

Var(S) Variance of the Kendall Score

XLSTAT Statistical analysis software package

APPENDIX L-3

Kirtland AFB BFF March 2017

Quarterly and Annual Report – October-December 2016

SWMU ST-106SS-111

Mann-Kendal Trend Analysis of Inorganic Water Quality Data

This section describes the Mann-Kendal linear regression analysis performed on the inorganic water

quality data for Kirtland Air Force Base (AFB) source area monitoring wells KAFB-106005, KAFB-

106009, and KAFB-106012R. The analysis was performed on select inorganic analytes and Oxidation

Reduction Potential (ORP) from quarterly monitoring beginning in July 2010 to the present Q4 2016.

The analytes included for the trend analysis were chloride, sulfate, nitrate/nitrite nitrogen, calcium,

sodium, and oxidation reduction potential (ORP). The analytical data for the three monitoring wells is

presented in Table 3-12.

Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis Method

The Mann-Kendall trend analysis is a test that evaluates whether a data series tends to increase or

decrease with time by comparing the each later-measured value to all the earlier measured values

(Walpole et al. 2007, Addinsoft 2016a). Due to the robustness to outliers, the Mann-Kendall analysis has

been used for trend analysis of various types of environmental data (Hipel and Mcleod 1994).

The Mann-Kendall trend analysis seeks to either confirm or reject the null hypothesis that no trend is

present and the data series are independent of time. If the null hypothesis cannot be rejected the data may

exhibit a random normal distribution (Walpole et al 2007, Addinsoft 2016). The Mann-Kendall Analysis

uses primary test statistics to determine the whether there is a trend in the time series data, the Kendall

score statistic (S) and the Kendal rank correlation coefficient (τ or tao).

The Kendall score, S, is computed by comparing the later-measured value to the previous values and

assigning either a -1,0, or 1, based on whether there in a decrease between the values, the values are

equal, or there is an increase between the values. S is then computed as a summation of these assigned

values. When S is a large positive number, there is an increasing/positive trend in the data. The maximum

and minimum values of S depend on the number of measured data points. When S is a large negative

number the is a decreasing trend in the data, and when the absolute value S is small there is no trend in

the data (Walpole et al. 2007).

The Kendall rank correlation coefficient, τ, is the Kendall score divided by the maximum possible

Kendall score. It ranges from -1 to 1, and its sign (whether positive or negative) follows S. This means

that the if there is a perfect decreasing trend in the data τ equals -1, a perfect increasing trend in the data τ

equals 1, and if there is no trend in the data, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected, and τ equal 0

(Walpole et al. 2007).

If the null hypothesis is rejected because the absolute values of S and τ are significantly different from

zero, the Sen slope can be calculated and used to determine the average rate of change. The Sens slope is

the average of the rate of change between the measured data points (Walpole et al. 2007).

The Mann-Kendal analysis assumes the data do not conform to a normal random distribution, and that a

measured data point can be considered less than, equal to, or greater than another measured value in the

time series (Walpole et al. 2007).

XLSTAT For the purposes of this study, the software package XLSTAT 2017 was used. XLSTAT is a statistical

software package that runs in the Microsoft Excel platform (Addinsoft 2016, 2017). The desired time

APPENDIX L-3



SWMU ST-106SS-111

series data was entered into XLSTAT, and the Mann-Kendal trend analysis was selected and ran.

XLSTAT then calculates the values of S, τ, the variance of S (Var(S)), and the Sen slope (Addinsoft

2016, 2017).

In addition to performing the Mann-Kendal analysis on the water quality data, XLSTAT provides the p-

value for the desired confidence interval as another measurement to rejecting the null, and to determine if

the use of the Mann-Kendal approach is appropriate (Addinsoft 2016).

The p-value for a data series is a measurement of normality in the data, and also provides a measurement

of statistical significance for a linear trend in the data (Addinsoft 2016, 2017). The p-value ranges from 0

to 1, and is a normalized function of the residual data measurements i.e. deviation from the data set’s

mean value (Walpole et al. 2007). A p-value equal to 1 indicates a perfect normal distribution, and

indicates that the Mann-Kendal method of analysis is not appropriate, since it assumes a non-normal

distribution (Walpole et al. 2007). A small p-value near zero, indicates a non-normal distribution and a

possible statistically significant trend. Statistical significance depends on the level of the confidence

interval selected for the analysis (Walpole et al. 2007, Addinsoft 2016).

Data Input and Assumptions

Inorganic water quality data (chloride, sulfate, nitrate/nitrite nitrogen, calcium, and sodium), and ORP

values, were input into XLSTAT for wells KAFB-106005, KAFB-106009, and KAFB-106012R. The

summarized data used for input is presented in tables L-3-1 through L-3-3. For events when the analyte

was not detected above the laboratory limit of quantification (LOQ), the LOQ was used as the

concentration for that event. This assumption would show a decrease (-1) for the computation S if the

LOQ was less than the previous measured values, an increase if the LOQ was greater than the previous

measured values (1), or a zero if it was the same as the previous values. This assumption is conservative

in that it indicates we have a data point at that time in the series, and assumes the maximum concentration

at that time.

In addition, XLSTAT removes the data point in the time series if no data is available (e.g. sample not

collected). For this reason, each analyte was analyzed separately, because the absence of nitrate/nitrite-

nitrogen data from July 2010 to July 2011 in well KAFB-106005 resulted in the removal of the available

date for the other analytes over that time period. Therefore, the statistics summary pages for each well

were prepared outside of XLSTAT, even though the program is capable of running all analyses at once

and producing a summary. The result summaries are discussed in detail in the following section.

Since XLSTAT also calculates the p-value, a 95% confidence interval was selected for this analysis.

Meaning that p-values less than 0.05 indicate a statistically significant trend and rejection of the null

hypothesis. A p-value greater than 0.05 would be considered failure to reject the null hypothesis.

Results The results of the Mann-Kendall analysis for the inorganic analytes in wells KAFB-106005, KAFB-

106009, and 1060012R are presented in their entirety in Attachments A, B, and C, respectively. The

results are summarized in Table L-3-4.

Chloride concentrations in wells KAFB-106009 and KAFB-106012R have statistically significant

increasing trends. The Sen’s slope for KAFB-106009 is 12.471 average milligrams per liter (ave.mg/L)

per average number of days (ave.no.days) between sample events, while the Sen’s slope for KAFB-

APPENDIX L-3



SWMU ST-106SS-111

102012R is 4 ave.mg/L per ave.no.days between sampling events. Chloride trends in well KAFB-106005

were not statistically significant as evidenced by a relatively small τ, and p-value greater than 0.05 (95%

confidence interval) (Table L-3-4).

Sulfate concentrations trends in wells KAFB-106009 and KAFB-106012R were increasing and

statistically significant with Sen’s slopes of 14.8 ave.mg/L per ave.no.day between sampling events and 7

ave.mg/L per ave.no.days between sampling events, respectively. Sulfate trends in well KAFB-106005

were not statistically significant as evidenced by a relatively small τ, and p-value greater than 0.05 (95%

confidence interval) (Table L-3-4).

Based on the geochemical equilibrium of the site groundwater and previous data analysis, nitrate/nitrite

nitrogen results represent nitrate concentrations. Nitrate concentration trends were increasing and

statistically significant in Well KAFB-106009 with a Sen’s slope of 0.818 ave.mg/L per ave.no.days

between sampling events. Wells KAFB-106005 and KAFB-106012R were not statistically significant as

evidenced by relatively small τ values, and p-values greater than 0.05 (95% confidence interval) (Table L-

3-4).

Calcium concentration trends were increasing and statistically significant in all three monitoring wells.

Well KAFB-106005 had a Sen’s slope of 1.726 ave.mg/L per ave.no.days between sampling events. Well

KAFB-106009 had a Sen’s slope of 7.875 ave.mg/L per ave.no.days between sampling events, and well

KAFB-1060012R had a Sen’s slope of 4 ave.mg/L per ave.no.days between sampling events (Table L-3-

4).

Sodium concentration trends were also increasing and statistically significant in all three monitoring

wells. Well KAFB-106005 had a Sen’s slope of 0.351 ave.mg/L per ave.no.days between sampling

events. Well KAFB-106009 had a Sen’s slope of 1.046 ave.mg/L per ave.no.days between sampling

events, and well KAFB-1060012R had a Sen’s slope of 0.933 ave.mg/L per ave.no.days between

sampling events (Table L-3-4).

ORP levels have a statistically significant decreasing trend in well KAFB-106005 with a Sen’s slope

of -5.106 average millivolts (ave.mV) per ave.no.days between sampling events, and a statistically

significant increasing trend in well KAFB-106009 with a Sen’s slope of 9.500 ave.mV per ave.no.days.

ORP trends were not statistically significant in well KAFB-106012R as evidenced be a relatively small τ,

and p-value greater than 0.05 (95% confidence interval) (Table L-3-4).

References

Addinsoft. 2016. XLSTAT 2016: User’s Manual. http.www.addinsoft.com. Downloaded 03/12/17.

Addinsonft. 2017. XLSTAT 2017 for Microsoft Excel 16.0 4510 (64 bit).

Hipel, K.W. & McLeod, A.I. 1994. Time Series Modeling of Water Resources and Environmental

Systems, Amsterdam: Elsevier. ISBN: 0-444-89270-2.

Walpole, R.E., Myers, H.R., Myers, S.L., Ye, K. 2007. Probability and Statistics for Engineers and

Scientist. Eighth Edition. Pearson Prentice Hall. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.

TABLE L-3-1Mann-Kendall Analysis Input Concentrations Well KAFB-106005

Well: KAFB-106005

Date Chloride (mg/L)Sulfate (mg/L) Nitratea (mg/L)

Calcium (mg/L)

Sodium (mg/L) ORP (mV)

06/16/10 133 173 - 128 64.4 94.1

07/14/10 145 181 - 122 64.7 288

10/20/10 161 164 - 118 65.9 145

02/21/11 160 154 - 138 79.8 -61

06/10/11 156 101 - 117 67.2 -25

09/20/11 151 20.3 1.5* 132 69.9 -114

12/12/11 137 19.0 1.5* 137 71.7 -239

03/01/12 130 33.3 1.5* 131 59.8 -290

05/09/12 175 106 1.5* 147 73.9 -295

08/09/12 19.3 8.73 1.5* 44.8 27.5 -293

11/12/12 149 28.7 1.5* 136 64.9 -335

03/25/13 154 114 1.01 146 67.6 -329

05/15/13 149 99.6 0.67 138 65.1 -332

08/27/13 141 69.3 0.934 131 62 -320

11/13/13 101 2* 1.5* 125 54 -300

03/13/14 183 101 0.734 143 71.6 -276

06/03/14 173 91 0.704 153 75.4 -329

09/04/14 167 88.7 1.51 141 72.3 -341

11/20/14 174 97.3 1.12 136 69.2 -309

03/12/15 208 184 1.85 176 83.1 -336

06/18/15 185 123 1.11 164 67.6 -333

09/01/15 159 108 1.62 150 73.4 -329

11/30/15 171 147 2.12 138 62.7 0.01

02/11/16 147 130 2.3 165 73.9 -303.5

02/11/16 144 129 2.2 165 73.8 -303.5

05/17/16 155 158 2.3 157 69.6 -315.5

08/03/16 154 216 2.7 177 75.1 -313.9

11/15/16 225 339 0.45 226 88 -213

Concentration detected above the LOQ

mg/L = milligrams per liter

mV = millivolts

* = Concentrations below the laboratory limit of quantification (LOQ); therefore the concentrations were set

equal to the LOQ.

a Based on the geochemical equilibrium of the site groundwater and previous data analysis, nitrate/nitrite

results represent nitrate concentrations.

Kirtland AFB BFF

Quarterly and Annual Report — October-December 2016

SWMU ST-106/SS-111 March 2017

TABLE L-3-2Mann-Kendall Analysis Input Concentrations Well KAFB-106009

Well: KAFB-106009

DateChloride (mg/L)

Sulfate (mg/L) Nitratea (mg/L)

Calcium (mg/L)

Sodium (mg/L) ORP (mV)

5/6/10 26 25.3 - 68 30.6 -

6/16/10 25.1 29.8 - 61.4 27.4 -215

7/14/10 39 28.7 - 76.7 30.2 0.2

10/20/10 47.1 17.4 - 89.1 34.8 -2.44

2/17/11 50.2 14.9 - 110 37.7 -127

5/13/11 52.2 7.58 - 124 38.3 -203

9/28/11 74.5 15.2 1.5* 122 36.9 -207

11/22/11 83.9 4.13 1.5* 120 34.5 -147

2/27/12 107 10* 1.5* 163 44.0 -145

5/9/12 118 2.5* 1.5* 174 46.3 -235

8/9/12 124 2.5* 1.5* 172 46.6 -173

11/5/12 129 2.5* 1.5* 169 46.3 -146

1/23/13 129 2* 1.5* 170 48.1 -175

5/21/13 118 12.2 0.421 149 50.3 -165

8/20/13 135 7.95 1.5* 171 49.2 -306

11/19/13 120 2.76 1.5* 153 42.9 -302

3/5/14 129 52.6 1.5* 147 49.7 -127

3/5/14 129 52.4 1.5* 146 48.6 -127

6/3/14 186 135 5.64 164 49.7 -170

9/2/14 205 129 8.18 191 53.7 86

9/2/14 208 132 7.82 183 52.8 86

11/18/14 248 165 15.7 184 51.3 -53

3/11/15 312 292 18.7 242 59.9 89

6/18/15 312 273 14.2 246 52.3 88

8/27/15 308 289 15.1 244 54.7 79

11/3/15 330 319 16.3 266 55.4 -

2/9/16 421 372 14.9 285 55.4 115.7

5/5/16 336 423 25.3 302 59.7 14.1

7/21/16 367 446 13.5 329 65.0 80.7

7/21/16 371 455 13.1 315 62.3 80.7

11/3/16 411 428 19.9 305 62.8 55.0



mV = millivolts

* = Concentrations below the laboratory limit of quantification (LOQ); therefore the concentrations

were set equal to the LOQ.

a Based on the geochemical equilibrium of the site groundwater and previous data analysis,

nitrate/nitrite results represent nitrate concentrations.

Kirtland AFB BFF



TABLE L-3-3

Mann-Kendall Analysis Input Concentrations Well KAFB-106012R

Well: KAFB-106012R

Date

Chloride

(mg/L)

Sulfate

(mg/L) Nitratea (mg/L)

Calcium

(mg/L)

Sodium

(mg/L) ORP (mV)

5/20/14 95.4 128 2.37 101 35.8 103

8/12/14 154 262 4.40 175 50.8 147

10/23/14 170 302 2.22 165 47.7 136

10/23/14 170 302 2.19 170 48.3 136

2/2/15 162 329 4.75 165 50.6 128

5/27/15 179 330 5.21 169 49.1 132.2

7/27/15 186 336 5.36 173 50.9 122

10/21/15 189 344 5.92 189 52.8 181

10/21/15 189 346 5.65 179 50.8 181

2/8/16 168 297 5.7 186 53.7 164.4

4/25/16 200 343 0.6* 191 55.3 106.8

4/25/16 215 337 0.6* 193 56 106.8

7/19/16 194 372 5.8 214 59.3 179.2

11/8/16 175 378 5.6 200 56.9 150.9



mV = millivolts

* = Concentrations below the laboratory limit of quantification (LOQ); therefore the concentrations

were set equal to the LOQ.

a Based on the geochemical equilibrium of the site groundwater and previous data analysis,

nitrate/nitrite results represent nitrate concentrations.

Kirtland AFB BFF



Table L-3-4Water Quality Mann-Kendall Results Summary

Kendall's tau (Ƭ) S

Sen's Slope p-value


Sen's Slope p-value


Sen's Slope p-value


Sen's Slope p-value


Sen's Slope p-value


Sen's Slope p-value

KAFB-106005 0.223 84.000 0.869 0.101 0.225 85.000 3.483 0.097 0.285 69.000 0.032 0.068 0.587 220.000 1.726 < 0.0001 0.318 120.000 0.351 0.019 -0.378 -142.000 -5.106 0.005KAFB-106009 0.922 425.000 12.471 < 0.0001 0.561 260.000 14.812 < 0.0001 0.660 179.000 0.818 < 0.0001 0.785 365.000 7.875 < 0.0001 0.850 394.000 1.046 < 0.0001 0.409 165.000 9.5 0.002KAFB-106012R 0.611 55.000 4 0.003 0.729 66.000 7 0.000 0.287 26.000 0.127 0.170 0.773 70.000 4 0.000 0.818 74.000 0.933 < 0.0001 0.112 10.000 1.355 0.621a

Based on the geochemical equilibrium of the site groundwater and previous site data analyses, nitrate/nitrite results represent nitrate concentrations.

Bold results indicate statistically signifcant linear trend using a 95% confidenc interval,Kendall's tau (Ƭ) = Kendall Rank Correltation Coefficient. Equals S/(Maxium Possible S). Ranges from -1 to +1.

S = Kendall Score. Equals the summation of the assigned value of -1, 0, or +1, based on the the comparison of a later measured value to the previous measure values.

Sen's Slope = Average rate of change over the time series. Equals the (average change in concentration)/(average number of days between monitoring events).

p-value = A measure of normality and statistically significance of trend based on a 95% confidence interval.

Sodium ORP

Well

NitrateaChloride Sulfate Calcium

Kirtland AFB BFF



Well: KAFB-106005

Significance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Summary statistics:

Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationChloride 28 0 28 19.300 225.000 153.796 35.616Sulfate 28 0 28 2.000 339.000 113.783 72.238Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen 23 0 23 0.450 2.700 1.471 0.587Calcium 28 0 28 44.800 226.000 142.207 29.472Sodium 28 0 28 27.500 88.000 68.352 10.661ORP 28 0 28 -341.000 288.000 -218.153 171.127

Summary (p-values):

Series\Test Mann-Kendall trend testChloride 0.101Sulfate 0.097Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen 0.068Calcium <0.0001Sodium 0.019ORP 0.005

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Chloride Sulfate Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen Calcium Sodium ORP

Variable

p-values

Well: KAFB-106005XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:24:14 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:24:14 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.045Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106005 / Range = 'KAFB-106005'!$B$2:$B$30 / 28 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:

Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationChloride (mg/L) 28 0 28 19.300 225.000 153.796 35.616

Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Chloride):

Kendall's tau 0.223S 84.000Var(S) 2560.000p-value (Two-tailed) 0.101alpha 0.05The p-value is computed using an exact method.

Test interpretation:H0: There is no trend in the seriesHa: There is a trend in the series

The risk to reject the null hypothesis H0 while it is true is 10.09%.

The continuity correction has been applied.

Ties have been detected in the data and the appropriate corrections have been applied.

Sen's slope: 0.869Confidence interval: [ 0.707, 1.140 [

As the computed p-value is greater than the significance level alpha=0.05, one cannot reject the null hypothesis H0.

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Chl

orid

e

Chloride (mg/L)

Well: KAFB-106005XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:25:45 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:25:46 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106005 / Range = 'KAFB-106005'!$C$2:$C$30 / 28 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:

Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationSulfate (mg/L) 28 0 28 2.000 339.000 113.783 72.238

Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Sulfate):








0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sulfa

te

Sulfate (mg/L)

Well: KAFB-106005XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:33:12 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:33:12 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106005 / Range = 'KAFB-106005'!$D$2:$D$30 / 28 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:

Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationNitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen(mg/L) 23 0 23 0.450 2.700 1.471 0.587

Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen):








0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0 5 10 15 20 25

Nitr

ate/

Nitr

ite N

itrog

en

Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen (mg/L)

Well: KAFB-106005XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:34:07 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:34:08 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106005 / Range = 'KAFB-106005'!$E$2:$E$30 / 28 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:

Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationCalcium (mg/L) 28 0 28 44.800 226.000 142.207 29.472

Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Calcium):

Kendall's tau 0.587S 220.000Var(S) 2555.333p-value (Two-tailed) < 0.0001alpha 0.05The p-value is computed using an exact method.


The risk to reject the null hypothesis H0 while it is true is lower than 0.01%.




As the computed p-value is lower than the significance level alpha=0.05, one should reject the null hypothesis H0, and accept the alternative hypothesis Ha.

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Cal

cium

Calcium (mg/L)

Well: KAFB-106005XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:36:01 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:36:02 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106005 / Range = 'KAFB-106005'!$F$2:$F$30 / 28 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:

Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationSodium (mg/L) 28 0 28 27.500 88.000 68.361 10.661

Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Sodium):








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Well: KAFB-106005XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:37:23 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:37:24 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106005 / Range = 'KAFB-106005'!$G$2:$G$30 / 28 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:

Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationORP (mV) 28 0 28 -341.000 288.000 -218.153 171.127

Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (ORP):

Kendall's tau -0.378S -142.000Var(S) 2557.333p-value (Two-tailed) 0.005alpha 0.05The p-value is computed using an exact method.





Sen's slope: -5.106Confidence interval: [ -6.308 , -4.151 [


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Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationChloride 31 0 31 25.100 421.000 182.290 123.538Sulfate 31 0 31 2.000 455.000 133.820 161.753Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen 25 0 25 0.421 25.300 8.210 7.646Calcium 31 0 31 61.400 329.000 181.971 74.638Sodium 31 0 31 27.400 65.000 47.658 10.022ORP 29 0 29 -306.000 115.700 -77.622 132.797

Summary (p-values):

Series\Test Mann-Kendall trend testChloride <0.0001Sulfate <0.0001Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen <0.0001Calcium <0.0001Sodium <0.0001ORP 0.002

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Well: KAFB-106009XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:39:51 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:39:52 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106009 / Range = 'KAFB-106009'!$B$2:$B$33 / 31 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:










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Well: KAFB-106009XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:41:04 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:41:04 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106009 / Range = 'KAFB-106009'!$C$2:$C$33 / 31 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:










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Well: KAFB-106009XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:41:59 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:42:00 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106009 / Range = 'KAFB-106009'!$D$2:$D$33 / 31 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:

Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationNitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen (mg/L) 25 0 25 0.421 25.300 8.210 7.646









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Well: KAFB-106009XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:42:32 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:42:33 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106009 / Range = 'KAFB-106009'!$E$2:$E$33 / 31 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:









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Well: KAFB-106009XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:43:11 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:43:12 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106009 / Range = 'KAFB-106009'!$F$2:$F$33 / 31 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:










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Well: KAFB-106009XLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:45:32 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:45:33 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsx / Sheet = KAFB-106009 / Range = 'KAFB-106009'!$G$2:$G$33 / 31 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:

Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationORP (mV) 29 0 29 -306.000 115.700 -77.622 132.797









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Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationChloride 14 0 14 95.400 215.000 174.743 27.955Sulfate 14 0 14 128.000 378.000 314.714 61.762Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen 14 0 14 0.600 5.920 4.026 1.987Calcium 14 0 14 101.000 214.000 176.429 25.975Sodium 14 0 14 35.800 59.800 51.286 5.614ORP 14 0 14 103.000 181.000 141.021 27.430

Summary (p-values):

Series\Test Mann-Kendall trend testChloride 0.003Sulfate 0.000Nitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen 0.170Calcium 0.000Sodium 0.000ORP 0.621

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Well: KAFB-106012RXLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:48:22 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:48:23 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsm / Sheet = KAFB-106012R / Range = 'KAFB-106012R'!$B$2:$B$16 / 14 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:








Sen's slope: 4Confidence interval: [ 3.800, 4.339 [


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Well: KAFB-106012RXLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:48:59 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:48:59 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsm / Sheet = KAFB-106012R / Range = 'KAFB-106012R'!$C$2:$C$16 / 14 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:










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Well: KAFB-106012RXLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:49:29 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:49:29 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsm / Sheet = KAFB-106012R / Range = 'KAFB-106012R'!$D$2:$D$16 / 14 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:

Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationNitrate/Nitrite Nitrogen (mg/L) 14 0 14 0.600 5.920 4.026 1.987









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Well: KAFB-106012RXLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:50:03 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:50:04 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsm / Sheet = KAFB-106012R / Range = 'KAFB-106012R'!$E$2:$E$16 / 14 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:










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Well: KAFB-106012RXLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:50:31 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:50:31 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsm / Sheet = KAFB-106012R / Range = 'KAFB-106012R'!$F$2:$F$16 / 14 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:










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Well: KAFB-106012RXLSTAT 2017.01.42312 - Mann-Kendall trend tests - Start time: 3/16/2017 at 10:51:08 AM / End time: 3/16/2017 at 10:51:09 AM / Microsoft Excel 16.04510Time series: Workbook = Mann-Kendal Analysis.xlsm / Sheet = KAFB-106012R / Range = 'KAFB-106012R'!$G$2:$G$16 / 14 rows and 1 columnSignificance level (%): 5Continuity correction: YesConfidence interval (%)(Sen's slope): 95Run again:

Summary statistics:

Variable Observations Obs. with missing data Obs. without missing data Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviationORP (mV) 14 0 14 103.000 181.000 141.021 27.430









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Documents

APPENDIX L-3 GROUNDWATER QUALITY TIME … AFB/KAFB4499/Appendices/L...APPENDIX L-3 . GROUNDWATER QUALITY TIME-SERIES GRAPHS -400-300 ... exhibit a random normal distribution (Walpole