Appendix 1 The Chinese Armed Forces: Strength Levels and Organisation in 19881

At a strength of 2 300 000 personnel, PLA ground forces form the largest of the service arms. Implementation of the combined arms concept has resulted in the reorganisation of the 36 Maoist field armies into 22 integrated 'Group Armies'. These are mobile forces, commanding up to four divisions, and represent the Western equivalent of 'corps'. Although reorganisation is complete in administrative terms, only three group armies were reported to be fully equipped in 1988. Eighty infantry divisions, ten armoured divisions, as well as five or six field and anti-aircraft artillery divisions make up the 22 group armies. These are deployed in seven Military Regions (MRs), each of which is comprised of a number of a Military Districts (MDs) that reflect the boundaries of provinces. Figure A.I and Table A.2 show deployment organ­isation.

Second largest service is the PLA Air Force. It has a total strength of 470 000 personnel, 220 000 of whom are assigned to air defence, and deploys some 6000 combat aircraft in seven Military Air Regions. Combat organis­ation is conventional: three squadrons of 12 to 15 aircraft each make up a regiment or 'wing', and three wings constitute the largest operational unit, the division. The Air Force's ground forces consist of four airborne divisions (one in Beijing MR, and three in the central MR of linan) as well as sixteen anti-aircraft artillery divisions.

With 300 000 personnel and about 1830 vessels - 53 large surface ships (destroyers and frigates), 115 submarines (three nuclear-powered and the rest mainly modified R- and W-class diesel submarines), and hundreds of minor ships - the PLA Navy is the smallest of China's armed services, but numerically the third largest in the world and the largest among its neigh­bours in the Asia-Pacific region. Naval deployments span the entire coast from the north, along the eastern coastline and south to the Vietnamese frontier, with base headquarters in Qingdao, Shanghai and Zhanjiang, respectively. The North Sea Fleet, with about 500 vessels (including one submarine flotilla and two squadrons), is deployed from the Yalu River to the south of Lianyungang. From this point to Dongshan, Chinese waters are patrolled by the 750-vessel-strong East Sea Fleet. The East Sea Fleet is equipped with air, air defence and coastal missile units. The South Sea Fleet is responsible for the southern region with its proximity to Vietnam and disputed territories. This fleet comprises about 600 vessels, including two submarine flotillas (25 submarines).

210

The Chinese Armed Forces

LANZHOU (West)

Figure A.l Chinese military regions, 1988

211

Adapted from The Military Balance 1988-1989, IISS, London, 1988, p. 148.

Table A.2 PLA deployments, 1988

Area NE N W SW S C E

Group Armies 4 5 2 3 3 2 3 Missile 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 Armoured 4 3 1 0 0 1 1 Infantry 16* 17 9* 10* 10* 7 11 Airborne 0 1 0 0 0 3 0

*There are 2-3 divisions worth of border troops in these MRs. Source: The Military Balance 1988-1989, IISS, London, 1988, p. 149.

Appendix 2 Chinese Nuclear Forces, 1988 Chinese nuclear forces are small in number but versatile in both reach and basing mode. Offensive nuclear systems, meaning those missiles and aircraft designed to carry nuclear weapons to enemy territory, are the established deterrent. Because China is also developing tactical systems which can be used within the immediate confines of the battlefield, these too are included to provide a more realistic picture of China's current inventory.

Beginning with its strategic systems, China has developed three ranges of ICBM: full, extended and limited. The full-range ICBM is the Dong Feng (East Wind) -5 or DF-5, designated by the US as CSS-4 (CSS = Chinese Surface-to-Surface). It is thought to be capable of delivering a five-megaton payload - presumed to comprise 10 MIRVed warheads! - to a distance of 12 900 kilometres. Believed to be in the same class as the US Titan II (first deployed in 1963) and the obsolete Soviet SS-9 Scarp, the two-stage DF-5 was successfully tested in 1980. Those now deployed (in hardened silos located in central China) are thought to be powered by solid propellants which, unlike liquid fuel, would permit them to be fired at short notice.

A single DF-5 was used in 1981 to launch, as one payload, three space research satellites, and in 1985 its testing with a multiple warhead nosecone was reported. 2 This MIRV capability, whereby the nosecone can release a number of warheads to separate targets, has resulted in the modified DF-5, the newly deployed three-stage CSS-5 or DF-6. 3 Given Soviet and American design comparisons, the number of MIRVed warheads it can carry (over a 15 OOO-kilometre distance) has been estimated at 10 to 12.4 In practical terms this MIRV capability means, as one commentator expressed it, that China could 'launch nuclear strikes on at least 12 major Soviet cities, including Moscow'.s Certainly European USSR and continental USA are within range of China's longer-range DF-5 and DF-6 ICBM force. Deployment numbers of this force are not confirmed. Figures range from two to ten missiles. 6 One published estimate, derived from a variety of open sources, lists six DF-5s and three DF-6s, bringing the total to nine.7 In 1988, the accuracy of these missiles was not known. Accuracy is expressed in terms of Circular Error Probable (CEP), which is the radius of a circle into which half of the warheads aimed at its centre are expected to fall. A 1980 estimate of the CEP of warheads on DF-5s was 1.8 kilometres.s Even if long-range accuracy had not greatly improved by the end of the 1980s, this need not be regarded as a disadvantage. As argued in Chapter 3, so long as China maintains strategic missiles these best serve deterrence by remaining countervalue.

The liquid-fuelled, two-stage DF-4 (CSS-3) is China's limited-range ICBM. It is probably capable of carrying a three-megaton MIRV payload to a

212

Chinese Nuclear Forces, 1988 213

distance of 7000 kilometres. Estimates on the numbers developed range from 4 to 40.9 This would bring China's total number of full, extended and limited range ICBMs to a possible maximum of 50. Despite the disparity in esti­mates, they still conform to the description of China's force as a minimal one when compared to 1386 ICBMs possessed by the Soviet Union and 1000 by the United States. to

Because the DF-4's first stage is the same as the single-stage DF-3 (CSS-2) intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) - of which there are only 50 to 60 - China is able to optimise its limited booster resources. The point is well made by Bradley Hahn: 'The interchangeability of these two booster sys­tems' components, provides considerable flexibility in considering target assignment requirements. Potentially, most CSS-2 systems could be easily upgraded from an IRBM to a limited range ICBM by merely adding a second stage.'ll

In September 1984, China's IRBM was also tested with a MIRV-type nosecone, resulting in the solid-fuelled, modified version of the DF_3. 12 Sixty of these missiles, each with three warheads, are reported to be deployed. 13

The standard DF-3 probably carries a two-megaton, three-warhead MIRV over an estimated intermediate range of 2700 kilometres. Its design is thought to derive from the Soviet SS-5. The 50 DF-2 (CSS-1) medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) are also single-stage and are designed to deliver a single 20-kiloton warhead to a range of some 1200 kilometres. Comparable to the Soviet SS-4 Sandal design, the DF-2 issues from 1950s Soviet technology. However, the DF-2's continued relevance to contemporary warfare is at­tested by its sale to the Middle East. In March 1988 it was revealed that China sold an undisclosed number of these missiles (without nuclear war­heads) to Saudi Arabia. That they were acquired for the ostensible purpose of deterring attack from Iran, whose inventory includes the Soviet-made SCUD-B and Chinese-made Silkworm missiles, shows that the mid-tech mode of deterrence is still regarded viable. An additional deterrent to possible enemies is the countervalue threat of the missile: DF-2 deployments in Saudi Arabia allow for a target coverage of both Iranian and Israeli population centres.

Another Chinese missile with strong export potential is the new Type M one-stage, solid-fuel missile. At the shorter range of 600 kilometres these ground-based systems will improve the PLA's tactical capabilities. Atomic demolition munitions have long been assumed to exist within the PLA arsenal. Their number remains unspecified, but their use is not difficult to envisage. As Robert Sutter has stated: 'These devices are thought to be ready for use in northern parts of China where they would be employed to destroy mountain passes, divert rivers, and otherwise impede the progress of an advancing enemy force. ,14

Turning to sea-based systems, China successfully test-fired a submarine­launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in October 1982 and a cruise missile three years later. The Chinese SLBM, theJulang(GiantWave)-1 orJL-1 (CSS-NX-4), is a variant of the DF-3. The two-stage, solid-fuelled missile is thought to be capable of delivering a three-warhead MIRV, of 1 to 2 megaton yield, to a maximum range of 3000 kilometres. Broadly in the category of early model Polaris missiles, the JL-l was publicly displayed by the Chinese at the 1984

214 Chinese Nuclear Forces, 1988

National Day military parade. Comparatively, the Chinese SLBM is more compact than the Polaris AI, and of similar size to the Pershing. Twelve of these missiles are carried on one operational Xia-class ballistic-missile nu­clear submarine (SSBN). Three more are under construction. Slow progress in the SSBN building programme has led to su§gestions that China could be experiencing technical difficulties in this area. 1

As regards aircraft deliverable weapons, some 120 H-6 medium strategic bombers and 250 Q-5 attack aircraft are nuclear capable. The H-6 could deliver free-fall (gravity) bombs up to a 3000-kilometre combat radius if modem air defences could be penetrated, and the 0-5 could carry a nuclear bomb of 5 to 20 kilotons to about 600 kilometres. The 250 to 300 H-5 twin-jet light bombers could also carry nuclear weapons, but at a far more limited radius of action. Although some of the 500 to 600 0-5s in service perform an air defence role within the Navy, most are thought to be deployed along the northern borders. The H-6 bomber is also deployed in this area in an attack role. Hence range capabilities are maximised, as is their deterrent value, by deployment close to Soviet territory. Nuclear-capable aircraft and MRBMs could supplement short-range missiles and munitions in a defensive war within Chinese territory rather than beyond it.

In terms of the offensive and defensive characteristics of China's nuclear force posture, the Strategic Rocket Units are offensive forces intended to threaten enemy targets. Chinese missile capabilities, as indicated above, range from intercontinental to theatre levels (Figure A.3). Submarine-based missiles, because of their mobile platform, are theoretically capable of threatening targets at either level. Active defence measures against hostile aircraft and missiles are also employed. For its air defence, China relies on an Over-the-Horizon Backscatter (OTH-B) radar system, with a range of 700 to 3500 kilometres and a 60 degree arc of cover; more than 4000 PLA Navy and Air Force fighters; about 100 Hongqi (Red Flag) -2IC or HQ-2IC (SA-2 type) SAMs; and over 16 000 anti-aircraft guns. 16 Early warning against ballistic missiles is the function of a phased-array radar complex; while central Asia and the northern border are covered by tracking stations in Xinjiang and Shanxi, respectively. China also has a limited ship-borne anti-ship capability. As a so-called 'passive defence' measure, China seeks protection through a civil defence programme incorporating shelter, evacu­ation, and local defence systems in Beijing and all key cities. 17 In sum, China's nuclear posture comprises the three tiers of strategic retaliatory capability, air defence and civil defence.

Chinese Nuclear Forces, 1988 215

1".,--1 Approach arcs of: (1) Chinese 1CBMs (limited-range) and (2) I RBMs launched from northern China; (3) IRBMs from north-eastern China; and (4) SLBMs from the Yellow Sea.

Approach arcs of Soviet 55-20 IRBMs (valid until 1991, when these missiles will be eliminated, according to the Dec 19871NF Treaty) from: (5) Western USSR, (6) Urals; and (7) Central Asian launch fields.

Soviet strategic bomber ranges from bases in Soviet Asia and Vietnam.

Figure A.3 Soviet and Chinese strategic nuclear ranges Adapted from 'IISS Map of Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile

Coverage', The Military Balance 1986-1987, IISS, London, 1986.

Notes and References

Introduction

1. Gerald Segal,'NucIear Forces', in Gerald Segal and William T. Tow (eds), Chinese Defence Policy, Macmillan, London, 1984, p. 104.

2. For 3000 years China regarded itself as the 'Middle Kingdom', sur­rounded by less civilised peoples (or 'barbarians'). China's 'sudden cata­strophic demotion', to use Toynbee's expression, is dated from the Anglo-Chinese War of 1838-42. (Arnold Toynbee, 'Introduction', in Arnold Toynbee (ed.), Half the World: The History and Culture of China and Japan, Thames & Hudson, London, 1973, p. 10.)

3. Sun Tzu, The Art of War (trans. Samuel B. Griffith), Oxford University Press, London, 1963, pp. 77, 87.

4. The 'Khien Hexagram' of I Ching: Book of Changes (trans. James Legge), Causeway Books, New York, 1973, pp. 409 and 57.

1 People's War: A Conceptual Odyssey

1. Gerald Segal, 'China's Security Debate', Survival, March-April 1982, pp.73--4.

2. Kenneth Hunt, 'Sino-Soviet Theater Force Comparisons', in Douglas T. Stuart and William T. Tow (eds), China, the Soviet Union, and the West­Strategic and Political Dimensions in the 1980s, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1982, p. 107.

3. Henri Jomini, The Art of War, Greenwood Press, USA, 1971, p. 31. 4. DIA, 'Handbook on the Chinese Armed Forces', 1976. 5. Selected Military Writings of Mao Tse-Tung, Foreign Languages Press,

Beijing, 1966, pp. 210 and 113. 6. 'You fight in your way and we fight in ours; we fight when we can win and

move away when we can't.' - Lin Piao [Biao], 'Long Live the Victory of People's War', Peking Review, 3 September 1965, p. 19.

7. Selected Military Writings, p. 234. 8. Ibid., pp. 210--11. 9. Ibid., pp. 181, 211.

10. Sun Tzu, The Art of War (trans. Samuel B. Griffith), Oxford University Press, London, 1963, p. 85.

11. Selected Military Writings, p. 105. 12. Ibid., p. 230. 13. Ibid., p. 304. 14. Ibid. 15. WaIter Laqueur, Guerrilla: A Historical and Critical Study, Weidenfeld

& Nicolson, London, 1977, p. 241. 16. Quoted in Samuel B. Griffith II, The Chinese People's Liberation Army,

2nd edn, Weidenfeld & Nicolson, London, 1968, p. 102.

216

Notes and References 217

17. Selected Military Writings, p. 129. 18. Ibid., p. 149, note 10. 19. Ibid., p. 129. 20. Ibid., pp. 104-5. 21. Ibid., p. 131. 22. Laqueur, loco cit., p. 248. 23. Harlan W. Jencks, 'Strategic Deception in the Chinese Civil War', in

Donald C. Daniel and Katherine L. Herbig (eds) , Strategic Military Deception, Pergamon Press, USA, 1982, p. 288.

24. Yeh Chien-ying [Ye Jianying), 'Developing Advanced Military Science of Chinese Proletariat', Peking Review, 24 March 1978, p. 6.

25. Ibid., p. 8. 26. Translated in the British Broadcasting Corporation's Summary of World

Broadcasts [hereafter, SWB), 13 May 1986. 27. Carl Von Clausewitz, On War, vol. 1, book 2, Routledge & Kegan Paul,

London, 1949, p. 100. 28. Hajo Holborn, 'Moltke and Schlieffen: The Prussian-German School',

in Edward Mead Earle (ed.), Makers of Modern Strategy, Princeton University Press, USA, 1973, p. 179.

29. Quoted in Richard Simpkin, Race to the Swift: Thoughts on Twenty-First Century Warfare, Brassey's Defence Publishers, London, 1985, p. 55.

30. It is also significant that the writings of Clausewitz (which had influenced Lenin) are of continued interest to the PLA. This is evidenced by the inclusion of a chapter on Clausewitzian strategic thought in its 1985 Handbook of Military Knowledge for Commanders, parts of which are translated in US Joint Publications Research Service [hereafter, JPRS) , China Report, 7 Mar. 1988, pp. i-439.

31. Paddy Griffith, Forward into Battle: Fighting Tactics from Waterloo to Vietnam, Antony Bird Publications, London, 1981, pp. 107-8.

32. Liddell Hart, The Strategy of Indirect Approach, Faber & Faber, Lon-don, 1941.

33. Sun Tzu, op. cit., p. 80. 34. Ibid., pp. 96-7. 35. Ibid., pp. 96, 98. 36. Clausewitz, op. cit., vol. 2, book 6, pp. 341-50; Jomini, op. cit., pp.

313-15. 37. Postulated by Singer in 1958. 38. Sun Tzu, op. cit., p. 77. 39. 'All Reactionaries are Paper Tigers' (November 1957), Selected Works of

Mao Tse-tung, vol. 5, Foreign Languages Press, Beijing, 1977, p. 517. This proposition is of continued relevance to contemporary Chinese military thinking as shown by its inclusion in the Handbook of Military Knowledge for Commanders, op. cit., under the sub-heading, 'Despise the Enemy Strategically and Respect the Enemy Tactically'.

40. Institute of Literature of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (comp.), Stories About Not Being Afraid of Ghosts, 2nd edn, Foreign Languages Press, Beijing, 1979, pp. 8--9, 51-4.

41. Ibid., p. 12. 42. Ibid., pp. 6, 37.

218 Notes and References

43. Ralph N. Clough, East Asia and u.s. Security, The Brookings Institute, Washington, 1975, p. 60.

44. 'Keeping the City Gates Shut - Tight', Asiaweek, 15 February 1987, p.64.

45. Karl Wilson, 'Military Overhaul is the Order of the Day', South China Morning Post, 8 October 1986, p. 13.

46. 'China Invents the Entrepreneurial Army', The Economist, 14 May 1988, p. 79.

47. Gerald Segal, Defending China, Oxford University Press, USA, 1985, ch. 2. For further background, consult Ching Ping and Dennis Blood­worth, The Chinese Machiavelli: Three Thousand Years of Chinese Statecraft, Secker & Warburg, London, 1976; and Edward S. Boylan, 'The Chinese Cultural Style of Warfare', Comparative Strategy, vol. 3, no. 4, 1982, pp. 341-64.

48. Eric Robert Wolf, 'Peasant Wars of the Twentieth Century', in Janson L. Finkle and Richard W. Gable (eds), Political Development and Social Change, 2nd edn, Wiley, USA, 1971, p. 618.

49. June Teufel Dreyer, 'The Chinese People's Militia: Transformation and Strategic Role', in Paul H.B. Godwin (ed.), The Chinese Defense Estab­lishment: Continuity and Change in the 1980s, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1983, p. 183.

50. Thomas W. Robinson, 'Chinese Military Modernization in the 1980s', The China Quarterly, June 1982, p. 231. .

51. William R. Heaton, Jr, 'The Defense Policy of the People's Republic of China', in Murray and Viotti, op. cit., p. 425.

52. Similarly, Jonathan D. Pollack, 'Rebuilding China's Great Wall: Chinese Security in the 1980s', in Godwin, loco cit., has advised that we should 'resist the temptation to impose an "externally approved" model of a force structure and doctrine upon the PRC' (p. 13); Segal, loco cit., speaks of 'artificial and western-centred' suggestions (p. 29), along with an obsession with 'weapon categories and capabilities' (p. 23); and Lee Ngok, in a review article, states that 'one should bear in mind the fact that the Chinese do not necessarily operate on the basis of Western models and concepts' ('Dimensions of China's Defence Policy for the 1980s and Beyond', Asian Studies Association of Australia, November 1985, p. 135).

53. For example, the PLA newspaper has stated that 'people's war under sustained modern conditions is the fundamental strategic doctrine for crushing a superior enemy'. (Ji Lianyiu, 'Assessment of Balance of Enemy and Friendly Forces for the Conduct of Counterattack as a Part of Positional Defence in the Initial Stage of Hostility', Jiefangjun Bao, 30 October 1981, p. 3, quoted in G. Jacobs, 'A Sino-Soviet War in 1984', Asian Defence Journal, September 1983, p. 34.) Lee Ngok, 'Dimensions of China's Defence Policy for the 1980s and Beyond', loco cit., concurs with the view that the people's war concept is more than a temporary expedient when he observes that people's war under modem conditions is 'a long-term doctrine and strategy and should not be regarded as an interim or transitional one as some would have us believe' (p. 134). He also states in 'Chinese Strategic Thinking', seminar paper, ANU, Can-

Notes and References 219

berra, 2 September 1982, that 'there is no indication that the Party sees People's War as only a transient phase before China becomes an equal in the strategic and tactical weaponry of the Superpowers' (p. 3).

54. The editor's Foreword and text of chapters 1, 2, 3, and 9 form the shorter introductory version, entitled Introduction to National Defense Modern­ization (distributed by China Science and Technology Publishing House), and available in translation from JPRS, China Report, 4 February 1985, pp. 1-61. Other Chinese sources of related interest are Zong He, 'Tentative Discussion on the Characteristics of Modern Warfare', Shijie Zhishi, 1 August 1983, pp. 2-4, in JPRS, China Report, 11 October 1983, pp. 78-83; Theoretical Group of the National Defense Scientific and Technological Commission, 'Integration of "Millet Plus Rifles" with Modernization', broadcast on Beijing domestic service in Mandarin, 20 January 1978, translated in the US Foreign Broadcast Information Service [hereafter, FBIS], Daily Report: People's Republic of China, 23 January 1978, pp. El-6; Hsu Hsiang-chien [Xu Xiangqian], 'Heighten Our Vigilance and Get Prepared to Fight a War', Peking Review, 11 August 1978, pp. 5-11; and Yang Dezhi, 'A Strategic Decision on Strengthening the Building of Our Army in the New Period', in FBIS, Daily Report: People's Republic of China, 8 August 1985, pp. Kl-7.

55. Introduction to National Defense Modernization, loco cit., p. 16. 56. Handbook of Military Knowledge for Commanders, op. cit., p. 330. 57. Introduction to National Defence Modernization, loco cit., p. 17. 58. Xinhua in Chinese, 22 April 1986, in SWB, 28 April 1986. 59. Introduction to National Defense Modernization, loco cit., p. 17. 60. Ibid. In the case of the Handbook, Mao's military thought is emphasised

as the opening chapter of the 'Section on Military Thinking and Strategic Policies of China's. Armed Forces'.

61. Introduction to National Defense Modernization, loco cit., p. 18. This· -view was also expressed to a French military delegation in China: 'We have chosen to defend a certain number of key points along the border and inside the country. We would use mobile warfare to draw enemy forces onto battlefields of our own choice.' (Agence France-Presse, 3 May 1979, in FBIS, Daily Report: People's Republic of China, 4 May 1979, p. 1.)

62. Introduction to National Defense Modernization loco cit., p. 18. This is also discussed in the Commanders' Handbook loco cit., especially p. 79.

63. See, for example, Wang Zhiyun and Jiang Shaowei, 'An Inch of Land -Notes on Yunnan Border Area's Defense,' Renmin Ribao, 12 August 1983, p. 4, in JPRS, China Report, 11 October 1983, p. 84, in which the slogans 'fight for every inch of land' and 'fight to the death in defense of our positions' are noted. Also of interest is the emphasis given to the defence of cities. Veteran marshal and Politburo member, Nie Rongzhen [N~eh Jung-chen], speaking at the 1978 National Militia Conference, stated: 'Cities ... are our political, economic, and cultural centers and pivots of communication, and will be the enemy's main targets for sabotage and capture. The defense and security of cities is of great significance to stabilizing the war situation, preserving our war potentials and supporting a protracted war' (FBIS, Daily Report: People's Republic

220 Notes and References

of China, 9 August 1978, p. E7.) In another speech, delivered to the City Defence Symposium held in 1980 and reported by Jilin Ribao in March of that year, the First Secretary of the Jilin provincial party committee, Wang Enmao, said: 'We should consider city defence construction as a strategic issue and never underestimate its importance.' (Cited by Lee Ngok, 'Chinese Strategic Thinking', op. cit., p. 17.) Finally, the Com­manders' Handbook,loc. cit., devotes attention to this within its section, 'Defensive Warfare'.

64. Hsu Hsiang-chien, 'Heighten Our Vigilance .. .', loco cit., p. 10. 65. Introduction to National Defense Modernization, loco cit., p. 18. 66. Ibid., p. 19. 67. Liu Jianjun, 'China's Burgeoning Electronics Industry', Beijing Review,

8-14 February 1988, p. 23. 68. Introduction to National Defense Modernization, loco cit. 69. Quoted in Strobe Talbott, 'Swords into Sample Cases', Time (Australian

edn), 18 July 1988, p. 25. 70. Ellis Joffe, The Chinese Army After Mao, Weidenfeld & Nicolson,

London, 1987, p. 84. 71. Ibid., p. 182. 72. Basic Military Knowledge Writing Group, Basic Military Knowledge,

2nd edn, People's Publishing House, Shanghai, 1975, ch. 7 and part of ch. 3 translated from Chinese in C.V. Chester and C.H. Kearny (eds), Chinese Civil Defense: Excerptsfrom Basic Military Knowledge, National Technical Information Service, USA, 1977.

73. Ibid., p. xii. 74. Ibid. 75. Commanders' Handbook, loco cit., p. 327. 76. Passive defences are defined as 'non-weapons measures - such as civil

defence and hardening - which protect important assets against attack', as distinct from active defences which 'utilize weapon systems to protect national territory, military forces, or key assets'. ('Soviet Strategic De­fence Programs', a joint US Department of Defense and Department of State Report, Backgrounder, United States Information Service, 10 October 1985, p. 4.)

77. Alastair I. Johnston, 'Chinese Nuclear Force Modernization: Implica­tions for Arms Control', Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, vol. 2, 1983, p.19 ..

78. A People's Daily (Renmin Ribao) report quoted in Asiaweek, 20 May 1988, p. 66.

79. Johnston, loco cit. 80. Shanxi provincial radio, FBIS, Daily Report: People's Republic of China,

24 February 1982; annual turnover, with profits of US$50.9 million, reported in People's Daily, loco cit.

81. Commanders' Handbook, loco cit., p. 161. 82. Segal, Defending China, op. cit., p. 21. 83. This is distinct from the appropriation of ideology for internal power

struggles, as revealed by events in June 1989. 84. Ching and Bloodworth, op. cit. 85. This type of adversary propaganda is apparent in the clandestine radio

Notes and References 221

broadeasts examined in Rosita Dellios, 'Clandestine Radio Broadcasts to China in Relation to PLA Dissatisfaction with the Chinese Leadership; in Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Australian Political Studies Association, Adelaide, 28-30 August 1985, vol. 3, pp. 360-94.

2 Defence Development: The Mid-Tech Path to Modernisation

1. Jeffrey Schultz, 'The Four Modernizations Reconsidered' in Richard Baum (ed.), China's Four Modernizations: The New Technology Revol­ution, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1980, p. 278.

2. Donald Hall, 'Defence Procurement: Military Requirements', RUSII Brassey's Defence Yearbook 1987, Brassey's Defence Publishers, London, 1987, p. 137.

3. Prof. H. Gelber, University of Tasmania, personal communication, October 1988.

4. The four modernisations were re-introduced by the late premier Zhou En-lai (Chou En-lai) in 1975 after more than a decade's delay associated with the Cultural Revolution. They were accepted in revised form in 1978 and then again, after further revision, in July 1979. It is worth noting that in the 1975 listings defence came third (before science and technology) rather than fourth as it did later. Zhou had signalled changes in investment priorities as early as 1959-60.

5. Cited in 'Inside the New China', South, June 1987, p. 9. 6. Ibid., p. 17. 7. Quoted in Renmin Ribao, Hongqi, and liefangjun Bao, 'Transform

China in Spirit of Foolish Old Man Who Removed Mountains', in Peking Review, lO March 1978, p. 45.

8. Ibid. 9. Su Wenning (ed.), Modernization - the Chinese Way, Beijing Review

Special Features Series, PRC, 1983. 10. Thomas Fingar and the Stanford Journal of International Studies (eds),

China's Questfor Independence: Policy Evolution in the 1970s, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1980, p. 6.

11. China News Analysis, 9 April 1984, p. 6. 12. Benjamin Schwartz, 'Modernisation and the Maoist Vision - Some

Reflections on Chinese Communist Goals', The China Quarterly, January­March 1965, p. 8.

13. An outstanding example of such modifications is the 197~5 'lO-year plan' for development of the national economy, belatedly announced in February 1978. An admission that it had been overtargeted came as early as 1979 when a 'three-year plan' of economic readjustment and consoli­dation was launched. The CPC Central Committee decided on the revision barely 10 months after the original plan's announcement. The 1985 constrictions marked a further decision to decelerate the pace of modernisation, as did the 1988 decision to slow down because of an 'overheated' economy.

14. CPC chief ideologist Hu Qili, quoted in 'Fast-Forward Goes on Hold', Asiaweek, 14 October 1988, p. 41.

222 Notes and References

15. Yang Dezhi, 'A Strategic Decision on Strengthening the Building of Our Army in the New Period', Hongqi, 1 August 1985, pp. 3-7, in FBIS, Daily Report: People's Republic of China, 8 August 1985, p. 2.

16. Hsu Hsiang-chien [Xu Xiangqian], 'Heighten Our Vigilance and Get Prepared to Fight a War', Peking Review, 11 August 1978, pp. 10-11.

17. The former is proposed by Arthur J. Deikman,- 'Bimodal Conscious­ness', in Robert E. Ornstein (ed.), The Nature of Human Consciousness -A Book of Readings, V\king Press, New York, 1974; and the latter by Louis Dumont, On Value (Radcliffe-Brown Lecture 1980), The British Academy, London, 1982.

18. Deikman, loco cit., p. 77. 19. Dumont, loco cit., p. 234. 20. This is strongly associated with the rate of social change. As Alvin Tomer

postulates: 'in a changing society and culture ... the past becomes a less sure guide to present decisions and future possibilities. In this circum­stance, thinking clearly about future possibilities and creating new ideas to cope with them becomes essential to survival. The time-bias of the culture must shift toward increased future-consciousness.' (Alvin Tomer, Previews and Premises, Pan Books, London, 1984, p. 181.) Chinese interest in futurist thinking is evident in their translation and publication of The Third Wave, an earlier work by Tomer; Sleepers, Wake, by Australia's Minister of Science, Barry Jones, in 1986; as well as the incorporation of Edward De Bono's ideas on education through the use of 'lateral thinking', and - as Tomer states (loc. cit., p. 179) - the establishment of 'think-tank' style futurist studies. For background on the latter, see 'Decision-Making: Rise of the Think-Tanks', Asiaweek, 5 October 1986, pp. 75, 77.

21. Quoted in Thai Ming Cheung, 'Computer War Games Catching Up', Pacific Defence Reporter, September 1988, p. 23.

22. Zhou Enlai's statement of 1975. 23. From statements quoted in Time, 4 November 1985, p. 29; Beijing

Review, 22 October 1984, p. 6 and 6 January 1986, p. 5. 24. Quoted in Asiaweek, 28 June 1987, p. 23. 25. Ren Tao and Wang Shunsheng, 'What's It Like?', in Su Wenning, op.

cit., pp. 17-18. 26. Quoted from Francis J. Romance, 'Modernization of China's Armed

Forces', Asian Survey, March 1980, p. 305. 27. Associated Press, 17 February 1984. 28. One may offer the tentative speculation that the former case served as

communication of a deterrent signal to the Soviet Union less than a week prior to US President Reagan's visit to China. Zhou may have been playing his 'Western card' at a time when it could draw maximum effect. Yu Qiuli's statement, however, would appear to be targeted at the United States. By drawing attention to the PLA's inadequacies, he may have been appealing for favourable treatment in weapons sales and technology transfers.

29. According to annual 1980s issues of The Military Balance, I1SS, London, estimated percentages of growth in the years 1980-86 are: 4%-7.1% (1980),3% (1981),9% (1982), 11.7% (1983), 12% (1984), 10% (1985),

Notes and References 223

9.1 % (1986). Economic growth was reflected in increased inflation rates - officially from 2.7% in 1984 to 5.5% in 1986, but in fact running much higher by the second half of the 1980s.

30. See Jay Branegan, 'Year of a Timid Dragon', Time (Australian edn), 28 December 1987, p. 54.

31. Hall, 'Defence Procurement: Military Requirements', op. cit., p. 140. 32. The Military Balance 1987-1988, loco cit., p. 143. 33. Ellis Joffe and Gerald Segal, 'The PLA Under Modern Conditions',

Survival, July-August 1985, pp. 146-7, 154. 34. Quoted in 'More Clout for the Army?', Asiaweek, 9 August 1987, pp.

22-3. 35. liefangjun Boo, 25 August 1987, in 'Cliinese Army on Attack Over

Defence Cuts', The Australian, 10 September 1987, p. 4. 36. 'More Clout for the Army?', loco cit., p. 23. 37. Ibid. 38. Outlook Weekly quoted in ibid. 39. CIA, Chinese Defense Spending, 1965-79 (SR 80-10091), National

Foreign Assessment Center, Washington DC, July 1980, p. 3. 40. Cited in 'Spit and Polish Don't Cost Much', The Economist, 14 May

1988, p. 29. 41. The Economist, 16 May 1986, p. 32. 42. Kung Hsuan, 'Modernize Our National Defense', Renmin Ribao, 31

May 1978, p. 2, in FBIS, Daily Report: People's Republic of China, 7 June 1978, p. 2.

43. News from Xinhua News Agency Weekly, 28 July 1983, p. 4. 44. Hall, loco cit., p. 134. 45. David Bonavia, 'PLA Marches On Regardless of Political Rumpus', Far

Eastern Economic Review, 19 March 1987, p. 108. 46. Tai Ming Cheung, 'Bad for Business: Gulf Peace Threatens Slump in

Arms Industry', Far Eastern Economic Review, 22 September 1988, p.42.

47. Yang Dezhi, Chief of PLA Staff, quoted in China Daily, 2 June 1984. 48. Figures obtained from The Military Balance, 1978-79 and 1988-89 issues. 49. Kenneth Munson, 'China's Air Power: Making Haste Slowly', lane's

Defence Review, September 1983, p. 178. 50. General Don Starry, Chairman, US Defense Science Board, quoted in

'Intelligence Update', Armed Forces, August 1988, p. 348. 51. Zhang Menjun, 'The Neutron Bomb', Kexue Shijian (Scientific Exper­

imentation), December 1977, and a technical report in Hejishu (Nuclear Techniques), August 1979, cited by Bradley Hahn, 'Beijing's Growing Global Missile Reach', Pacific Defence Reporter, February 1987, p. 12. On the advocacy of battlefield nuclear weapons, refer to Xu Baoshan, 'We Must be Prepared to Fight Nuclear War in First Stages of Any Future War', liefangjun Bao, 16 September 1979, in JPRS, China Report, 4 June 1980, p. 97.

52. Bradley Hahn, 'Quick Nuclear Leap Leads to Credible Nuclear Deter­rent,' Pacific Defence Reporter, May 1987, p. 29. According to informa­tion provided by Jencks, these SRBMs are based on the Soviet FROG and SCUD-A. The former is unguided, solid-fuelled, has a launch weight

224 Notes and References

of 3000 kg and a range of 25-65 km; the latter is guided by radio command, relies on liquid fuel, has a launch weight of 4500 kg and a range of over 100 km. (Harlan W. Jencks, From Muskets to Missiles: Politics and Professionalism in the Chinese Army, 1945-1981, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1982, p. 295.)

53. Changchun Jilin provincial service, 28 December 1979, in FBIS, Daily Report: People's Republic of China, 3 January 1980, p. LlO, cited by Alastair I. Johnston, 'Chinese Nuclear Force Modernisation: Implica­tions for Arms Control', Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, vol. 2, 1983, pp. 21,27.

54. Xinhua domestic service in Chinese, 'Defense Industry Reports 1981 Achievements', 1 January 1982, in FBIS, Daily Report: People's Re­public of China, 4 January 1982, p. 2.

55. See G. Mos'ko, 'Beijing's Nuclear Missile Program', Soviet Press, May 1982, p. 166.

56. International Defense Review, December 1986, p. 1737; and Flight Inter­national, 7 February 1987, p. 35. In 1986 there were also reports that simpler, shorter-range, unguided rockets were being developed - a version of the Soviet FROG-7 SSM, which is understandable in view of the reported 215 FROG launchers deployed by the Soviets along their common border with China. (Reports cited by The Military Balance 1986-1987, op. cit., p. 141. FROG SSM force numbers: US DoD, Soviet Military Power 1987, US Government Printing Office, Washington DC, 1987, p. 41.)

57. Announced by the Minister of Aerospace Industry, Lin Zongtang ('China Refines Aerospace Bureaucracy', The Australian, 13 July 1988, p.25).

58. Christopher Chant and Ian Hogg, The Nuclear War File, Ebury Press, London, 1983, p. 76. The differences between a neutron and standard fission warhead are such that the latter would have to be 10 times more powerful than the former to produce the same effects.

59. Business Week, 27 October 1986, p. 63. 60. See Jencks, 'Ground Forces', in Gerald Segal and William T. Tow (eds),

Chinese Defence Policy, Macmillan, London, 1984, p. 65; FBIS, Daily Report: People's Republic of China, 19 January 1982, p. 6; and Jane's Defence Weekly, 31 August 1985, p. 384.

61. See 'Military Medical Review: People's Republic of China Exhibits NBC Products', Asian Defence Journal, August 1986, p. 109.

62. Jencks, loco cit. 63. Lee Ngok, 'Chinese Strategic Thinking', seminar paper, ANU, 2 Sep­

tember 1982, p. 17. 64. Samuel B. Griffith II, The Chinese People's Liberation Army: From the

Long March to the Hydrogen Bomb, 2nd edn, Weidenfeld & Nicolson, London, 1968, p. 288.

65. Brian Beckett, Weapons of Tomorrow, Orbis Publishing, London, 1982, pp. 139-40.

66. J.P. Robinson, 'Recent Developments in the Field of Chemical War­fare', RUSIIBrassey's Defence Yearbook 1983, Brassey's Defence Pub­lishers, London, 1983, p. 177.

Notes and References 225

67. Bryan Boswell, 'The Iran-Iraq War: Where Gas is the Poor Man's Atom Bomb', The Weekend Australian, 29-30 November 1986, p. 18.

68. The point is made by A.C. Hallett, 'Chemical Warfare: Developments and Implications', RUSIIBrassey's Defence Yearbook 1987, Brassey's Defence Publishers, London, 1987, p. 118.

69. See Bradley Hahn, 'Big Amphibious Strides', Pacific Defence Reporter, April 1988, pp. 28--31.

70. Ibid., p. 29. 71. Clare Hollingworth, 'Massive Reorganization of the PLA', Pacific De­

fence Reporter, August 1988, p. 26. 72. Otto Heilbrunn, Warfare in the Enemy's Rear, Allen & Unwin, London

1963, ch. 5. 73. Paddy Griffith, Forward into Battle: Fighting Tactics from Waterloo to

Vietnam, Antony Bird Publications, London, 1981, p. 76. 74. Handbook of Military Knowledge for Commanders, Beijing Military

Region, Beijing, May 1985, in JPRS, China Report, 7 March 1988, p. 221.

75. Ibid., p. 225. 76. Griffith, loco cit., pp. 133-4. 77. Commanders' Handbook, loco cit., p. 226. 78. Ibid. Apart from a special section on defence under NBC conditions, the

subject is also subsumed within discussions on offensive and defensive combat.

79. Xinhua, 7 August 1986, in SWB, 'PRC: A Smaller Militia with a Change of Emphasis in its Work', 16 August 1986.

80. Quoted in 'Nieh Jung-chen [Nie Rongzhen] Speaks at National Militia Conference', FBIS, Daily Report: People's Republic of China, 9 August 1978, p. E5.

81. June Teufel Dreyer, 'The Chinese Militia: Citizen Soldiers and Civil­Military Relations in the People's Republic of China', Armed Forces and Society, Fall 1982, p. 74.

82. 'Half-Pay Soldiers'. Far Eastern Economic Review, 21 November 1985, pp. 18--19.

83. 'China's Military Ranks', Beijing Review, 11 June 1984, p. 20. 84. Quoted in The Military Balance 1987-1988, op. cit., p. 143. 85. 'Army Aims to Cut Ranks by 1 Million', Beijing Review, 12 August 1985,

p.7. 86. Andrew J. Nathan, Book Reviews, Political Science Quarterly, Spring

1988, vol. 103, no. 1, p. 177. 87. 'Reduction of Army Going Smoothly', China Daily, 1 October 1985,

p. 1. 88. Rosita Dellios, 'Clandestine Radio Broadcasts to China in Relation to

PLA Dissatisfaction with the Chinese Leadership', in Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Australasian Political Studies Association, Adelaide, 28--30 August 1985, vol. 3, p. 362.

89. Yu Qiuli cited in 'Shake-Up Urged in Chinese Army', News from Xinhua News Agency Weekly, no. 754,28 July 1983, p. 4.

90. Quoted in John Coon, 'The PLA and Chinese Power Abroad', in William W. Whitson (ed.), The Military and Political Power in China in

226 Notes and References

the 1970s, Praeger, New York, 1972, p. 341; and in Johnston, op. cit., p. 26, note 21. In people's war to 'destroy the enemy' means 'to disarm him or "deprive him of the power to resist"'. (Selected Military Writings of Mao Tse-tung, Foreign Languages Press, Beijing, 1966, p. 230.)

91. Georges Tan Eng Bok, 'Strategic Doctrine', in Segal and Tow, op. cit., p.7.

92. As Samuel Griffith states: 'Peking [Beijing] demonstrated during the border fighting with India that she could very effectively deploy and support limited but still significant conventional land power beyond her borders under particular conditions. This she had previously demon­strated, on a much larger scale, in Korea.' (Samuel B. Griffith, 'The Military Potential of China', in Alastair Buchan (ed.), China and the Peace of Asia, Chatto & Windus for the Institute of Strategic Studies, London, 1965, p. 67.) In his analysis of Chinese risk taking, Whiting also notes that 'the PLA has repeatedly projected its power across China's borders' and that it has adopted 'a belligerent forward posture as op­posed to a passive role remaining behind the PRC border or withdrawing from positions of potential conflict' (Allen S. Whiting, The Chinese Calculus of Deterrence, The University of Michigan, USA, 1975, p. 236.)

93. Zong He, 'Tentative Discussion on the Characteristics of Modem War­fare', Shijie Zhishi, 1 August 1983, pp. 2-4, in JPRS, China Report, 11 October 1983, pp. 79.

94. Ibid. 95. Lee Ngok, loco cit., p. 5. Professor Lee has been particularly helpful (via

personal correspondence, 1988) in stimulating thought on the initial stage of war in relation to the concerns of this study.

3 The Nuclear Guerilla

1. Speaking in ltis capacity as Defence Minister at the 51st anniversary of the PLA. (Quoted in Banning N. Garrett and Bonnie S. Glaser, War and Peace: The Views from Moscow and Beijing, Institute of International Studies, University of California, Berkeley, 1984, p. 128.)

2. M. Phillip Powell, 'Warrior 2000: Battle by Remote Control', Inter­national Combat Arms, November 1987, p. 38.

3. Stated in two articles by Bradley Hahn: 'Beijing's Growing Global Missile Reach', Pacific Defence Reporter, February 1987, p. 12; and 'Quick Nuclear Leap Leads to Credible Nuclear Deterrent', Pacific Defence Reporter, May 1987, p. 30.

4. See Hahn, 'Quick Nuclear Leap .. .', ibid., illustration 2. 5. Bradley Hahn, Proceedings, March 1986, p. 119. 6. Of interest is Worig-Fraser's comment on the meaning of the word

'deterrence' in Chinese:

While frequently rejecting Western ideas and theories about deter­rence, the Chinese concept of deterrence, which is translated as hezu liliang (literally: the power to force inaction by frightening), can be

Notes and References 227

simply embodied within pre-existing notions of war and politics: to win victory without fighting a war is the best strategy (bu jan er churen zhibing).

(Agatha S.Y. Wong-Fraser, 'China's Nuclear Deterrent', Current His­tory, September 1981, p. 245.)

This observation is congruent with Sun Tzu's teachings and the psycho­logical focus of people's war discussed in Chapter 1.

7. Magnus Clarke, 'Nuclear Explosives and Nuclear Deterrence', Book D, Australian Defence and Strategic Studies (ADASS), Deakin University, Victoria, 1985, p. 17. To illustrate the destructive potential of relatively few warheads, he adds that 'the destruction of only the 50 largest cities [of the Soviet Union] would mean 20 per cent of its population as casualties and the destruction of 38 per cent of its industries'.

8. Lee Ngok, 'Defending China: Chinese Air Land Battle - An Application of People's War Under Modern Conditions', conference paper, Asian Studies Association of Australia Biennial Conference, University of Syd­ney, May 1986, p. 3.

9. The possibility that the Chinese would use nuclear weapons on their own territory has been raised by a number of authors, including Jonathan Pollack.

10. Charles Horner, 'The Production of Nuclear Weapons', in William W. Whitson (ed.), The Military and Political Power in China in the I970s, Praeger, New York, 1972, p. 242.

11. The words of a Chinese strategist interviewed in 1982 by Garrett and Glaser, op. cit., p. 129.

12. Garrett and Glaser, ibid., p. 126. 13. Bradley Hahn, 'China in the SLBM Club', Pacific Defence Reporter,

February 1984, pp. 17-18. 14. G. Mos'ko, 'Beijing's Nuclear Missile Program', Soviet Press, May 1982,

p.166. 15. Harry Gelber, Nuclear Weapons and Chinese Policy, Adelphi Paper No.

99, IISS, London, 1973, p. 24. 16. Horner, loco cit., p. 243. 17. Tim Colebatch, 'We Have Star Wars: Soviets', The Age, 2 December

1987, p. 6. 18. Dr Magnus Clarke, personal communication, Deakin University, Jan­

uary 1988. 19. Magnus Clarke, work-in-progress paper, presently titled, Shadows of a

European Defence Initiative, personal communication, Deakin Univer­sity, August 1987.

20. Chinese premier Li Peng speaking to Yuri Maslyukov, first vice­chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Soviet Union, as reported in Beijing Review, 20-26 June 1988, p. 6.

21. Zhuang Qubing, 'How will US-Soviet Summit Fare in Moscow?' , Beijing Review, 30 May-5 June 1988, p. 26.

22. Clarke, loco cit. 23. This is evident in Xing Hua's comments of August 1985:

228 Notes and References

Strong in maintaining the independence and self-reliance of Western Europe, France is worried that the US plan would cripple nuclear deterrence and render its independent arsenal powerless, so French leaders are suspicious of the US plan . . . The United States, they contend, will not truly treat the West European nations as partners. Therefore, France put forward its Eureka proposal, which calls for a joint West European research effort in six new-born technologies.

(Xing Hua, 'SDI: Western Europe Faces Challenge', Beijing Review, 5 August 1985, p. 24.)

For Western commentary, see Peter J. Opitz, 'China's Policy Towards Western Europe', Aussen Politik, vol. 36, no. 3, 1986, pp. 259--60.

24. A view expressed by Clarke, loco cit.; and Xing, loco cit., pp. 22-5. 25. Sun Tzu, The Art of War (trans. Samuel B. Griffith), Oxford University

Press, London, 1963, p. 87. 26. Ibid.

4 The Kingdom in the Middle: Threats to China

1. Sun Tzu, The Art of War (trans. Samuel B. Griffith), Oxford University Press, London, 1963, p. 77.

2. Quoted in 'Big Plans for Gateway City', Asiaweek, 28 October 1988, p.22.

3. Speech by Mikhail Gorbachev in Vladivostok, 28 July 1986, reprinted in Ramesh Thakur and Carlyle A. Thayer (eds), The Soviet Union as an Asian Pacific Power: Implications of Gorbachev's 1986 Vladivostok Initiative, Westview Press, Boulder and London, 1987, p. 201.

4. Ibid., p. 202. 5. Handbook of Military Knowledge for Commanders, Beijing Military

Region, Beijing, May 1985, in JPRS, China Report, 7 March 1988. 6. The Military Balance 1988-1989, IISS, London, 1988, p. 43. 7. Ibid. The Military Balance does not include artillery divisions in its

totals as they are not manoeuvre formations. 8. As Yaacov Y.I. Vertzberger has observed:

Because China is unable to deploy and project power far beyond its borders, and has little political influence in the Middle East, it cannot deal with the Soviet presence and contain it farther away from its borders in the Middle East and the Gulf regions. Hence the import­ance of the land 'stitch' between the Middle East and South Asia, that is, Pakistan and Afghanistan. At the same time Soviet naval dominance in the Indian Ocean, particularly in the western part, could play an important supportive role in an attempt to dominate South Asia. Thus the most important elements in China's counter­encirclement strategy are: Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Indian Ocean, in this order.

(China's Southwestern Strategy: Encirclement and Counterencirclement, Praeger, New York, 1985, p. 6.)

Notes and References 229

9. Roy Medvedev, China and the Superpowers (trans. Harold Shukman), Basil Blackwell, UK, 1986, p. 42.

10. This is well illustrated by an item in World Affairs Report, California Institute of International Studies, California, No. 1022790: the Soviet press in 1981 spoke of 'Great Khan expansionism' and quoted 'a number of writers, going back to Kan Yu Wei, the' nineteenth-century political leader who foresaw the day when the yellow dragon flag (the flag of the revolutionaries) would fly over all countries'.

11. Col. Edgar O'Ballance, 'Intelligence Update', Armed Forces, August 1988, p. 349.

12. Deng Xiaoping, quoted in Ming Bao (Hong Kong), 4 March 1979, p. 1. 13. Thai Ming Cheung, 'Computer War Games Catching Up', Pacific

Defence Reporter, September 1988, p. 23. The outcome which was predetermined (a matter raised earlier in Chapter 2), and with which foreign assessors disagreed, was a PLA victory. Despite Soviet techno­logical superiority, the Chinese won because of such factors as 'tactics' and 'bravery of soldiers'.

14. Harlan W. Jencks, "'People's War under Modern Conditions": Wish­ful Thinking, National Suicide, or Effective Deterrent?', The China Quarterly, June 1984, p. 307.

15. Ibid., p. 308. 16. 'Nanjiang Railway Opened to Traffic', Beijing Review, 20 August 1984,

p.9. 17. Xie Xuan, 'PLA Assisting Socialist Construction', Beijing Review, 6

August 1984, p. 23. 18. Quoted in Asiaweek, 7 December 1986, p. 40. 19. Far Eastern Economic Review, 16 January 1986, p. 11. 20. Donald H. McMillen, The Urumqi Military Region: Defence and Se­

curity in China's West, Working Paper No. 50, SDSC, ANU, Canberra, 1982, p. 15.

21. Kenneth Hunt, 'Sino-Soviet Theater Force Comparisons', in Douglas T. Stuart and William T. Tow (eds), China, the Soviet Union, and the West - Strategic and Political Dimensions in the 1980s, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1982, p. 111.

22. William C. Green and David S. Yost, 'Soviet Military Options Re­garding China', in Stuart and Tow, ibid., p. 142.

23. An excellent investigation of Soviet writings on the campaign, and lessons drawn from it, is provided by Lilita I. Dzirkals, 'Lightning War' in Manchuria: Soviet Military Analysis of the 1945 Far East Campaign (P-5589), RAND Corp., Santa Monica, California, January 1976.

24. Hunt, loco cit., p. 112. 25. Nelson notes that the Wuhan MR (now absorbed into the Jinan MR)

'serves as the strategic reserve area for the others . . . presumably because of its central location, large industrial base, and good rail communications with the others'. (Harvey W. Nelson, The Chinese Military System: An Organizational Study of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, 2nd edn, Westview Press,.Boulder, Colorado, 1981, p. 123.) During the Sino-Vietnamese border war of 1979, for example, main force units had been drawn from Wuhan, as well as Chengdu in

230 Notes and References

the south and Fuzhou in the east (Hunt loco cit., p. 107). 26. A.A. Sidorenko, The Offensive, Moscow, 1970, translated and pub­

lished under the auspices of the United States Air Force, US Govern­ment Printing Office, Washington, D301.79:1, p. 62.

27. P.H. Vigor, Soviet Blitzkrieg Theory, Macmillan, London, 1983, p. 9. The problems associated with inferring Soviet military behaviour from doctrine are clearly addressed by Benjamin S. Lambeth, 'How to Think about Soviet Military Doctrine', in John Baylis and Gerald Segal (eds), Soviet Strategy, Croom Helm, London, 1981, pp. 105-23.

28. Donald Mercer, The Warsaw Pact Short Warning Nuclear Attack: How Viable an Option, US Army Russian Institute, APO, New York, 1979.

29. A.C. Hallett, 'Chemical Warfare: Developments and Implications', RUSIIBrassey's Defence Yearbook 1987, Brassey's Defence Publishers, London, 1987, p. 121.

30. Ibid. 31. Li Jian, 'Reliance on Present Equipment Can Subdue Amassed Tanks',

Jiefangjun Bao, 27 March 1981, cited by Lee Ngok, 'Defending China: Chinese Air Land Battle - An Application of People's War Under Modern Conditions', conference paper, Asian Studies Association of Australia Biennial Conference, University of Sydney, May 1986, p. 8.

32. Lee, ibid., p. 4. 33. Figures derived from The Military Balance 1988-1989, op. cit., p. 43. 34. William V. Kennedy, 'The Perceived Threat to China's Future', in Ray

Bonds (ed.), The Chinese War Machine: A Technical Analysis of the Strategy and Weapons of the People's Republic of China, Salamander Books, London, 1979, p. 178.

35. Ibid., p. 175. 36. Green and Yost, op. cit., p. 141. 37. Ibid., p. 142. The authors have quoted from Vigor Louis, The Coming

Decline of the Chinese Empire; Times Books, New York, 1979, p. 147. 38. Vigor, loco cit. 39. G. Jacobs, 'A Sino--Soviet War in 1984', Asian Defence Journal,

September 1983, p. 34. 40. Sun Tzu, op. cit., p. 92. 41. In support of the proposition that the US would avoid direct military

involvement, Thomas Pepper and London's IISS information officer, Maj. S.R. Elliot, are worth citing. The former described a US nuclear response to an Asian nuclear war as 'unlikely'; and the latter has stated: 'If there is any conflict in the Asiatic theatre, I suspect it will be limited and there will be a strong lobby to keep other states out of the conflict by taking strategic precautions.' (Asiaweek, 27 May 1983, p. 40.)

42. A term used by Gerald Segal, 'China's Security Debate', Survival, March-April, 1982, p. 74.

43. See Pierre Gallois and John Train, 'When a Nuclear Strike is Think­able', The Asian Wall Street Journal, 26 March 1984, p. 6.

44. Richard E. Simpkin, Race to the Swift: Thoughts on Twenty-First Century Warfare, Brassey's Defence Publishers, London, 1985, p. 74.

45. Frederick H. Hartmann, 'The Strategic Triangle: China, Russia, and the United States', in Rethinking US Security Policy for the 1980s,

Notes and References 231

Proceedings of the 7th Annual Security Affairs Conference, Washing­ton, 1980, p. 20.

46. Ibid., p. 11. 47. l.R. Frisch (ed.), Energy 2000-2020: World Prospects and Regional

Stresses (trans. P. Ruttley), Report of World Energy Conference 1983, Graham & Trotman, London, 1983, p. 52.

48. Bohdan O. Szuprowicz, How to Avoid Strategic Materials Shortages: Dealing with Cartels, Embargoes, and Supply Disruptions, Wiley­Interscience, New York, 1981, pp. 56-7.

49. Liu Guoguang, Liang Wensen, et al. (comp.), China's Economy in 2000, New World Press, Beijing, 1987, p. 406.

50. Valery Lutsenko, a high-ranking official of the Soviet Far East, quoted in Peter Ellingsen, 'Vladivostok to be Used as Test for Economic Glasnost', The Age, 3 October 1988, p. 8.

51. 'The Development of Energy Resources', Beijing Review, 16-22 May 1988, p. 27.

52. Frisch, op. cit., p. 51. 53. Ren Tao and Pang Yongjie, 'Can the Goal for A.D. 2000 Be Reached?',

in Su Wenning (ed.), Modernization - the Chinese Way, Beijing Re­view Special Features Series, PRC, 1983, p. 40.

54. During the period 1965-84, the area under irrigation increased from 33 to 45 million hectares, and chemical fertiliser usage increased from 2 to 18 million tons. (State Statistical Bureau, Chinese Government, cited in New Internationalist, April 1987, p. 17.)

55. Ibid., pp. 16-17. 56. 'China Tries to Learn Planner's Hardest Lesson', The Economist, 18

January 1986, p. 18. 57. 'Agriculture: In Flux', China News Analysis, 1 April 1988, p. 8. 58. Liu Guoguang, Liang Wensen, et al., loco cit., p. 172. 59. 'Guidelines for the Economic and Social Development of the USSR for

1986-1990 and the Period Until the Year 2000', Reprints from the Soviet Press, 15-30 November 1985, p. 39.

60. Quoted in Robert Delfs, 'Chen Yun: A Chilling Speech', Far Eastern Economic Review, 10 October 1985, p. 40. Indeed, the importance of grain production was stressed again, by CPC General Secretary Zhao Ziyang, at the 13th Party Congress in October 1987 and at the meeting of the National People's Congress Standing Committee soon after.

61. Far Eastern Economic Review, Asia 1988 Yearbook, Hong Kong, 1988, p.123.

62. The 1987 target of 232 million tons required more than 30 million tons from Kazakhstan. (Martin Ebon, 'Seeking Greater Qains from Soviet Grain', Far Eastern Economic Review, 19 March 1987, p. 28.)

63. Ibid. 64. During the Second Indochina War, Hanoi had planned a combined

Vietnamese, Cambodian, and Laotian military command. This was formalised in 1970, but the concept had not been implemented until after the establishment of the SRV.

65. Lim Joo-Jock, Territorial Power Domains, Southeast Asia, and China: The Geostrategy of an Overarching Massif, Institute of Southeast Asian

232 Notes and References

Studies, Singapore, 1984, p. 57 66. Ba Yi, 28 December 1982, in SWB, 5 January 1983. 67. Ibid. 68. Lucian W. Pye, China: An Introduction, 2nd edn, Little, Brown & Co.,

Boston and Toronto, 1978, pp. 118-19. For the historical background to Sino-Vietnamese relations, see also Keith Weller Taylor, The Birth of Vietnam, University of California Press, USA, 1983. For example, Taylor observes:

Sino-Vietnamese relations have traditionally been expressed in terms of vassalage. Only in recent years have the Chinese and Vietnamese begun to speak of their relationship in terms of theoretical equality. Making this new relationship effective will require a large adjustment in the view each nation has historically had of the other. Chinese pressure of any kind is instinctively felt by the Vietnamese as a threat to their national survival. On the other hand, the assertion by Vietnam of its national interests other than in deference to Chinese policies is instinctively felt by the Chinese as impertinence bordering on insubqrdination. Perhaps an inevitable result of the difference in size between the two countries, these feelings lie at the root of Sino-Vietnamese relations today as they did two thousand years ago. (p. 297)

69. Vu Can, 'Vietnam Face to Face with Chinese Aggression', in Chinese Aggression Against Vietnam: Dossier, Vietnam Courier, Hanoi, 1979, pp.34-5.

70. 'Soviets Bearing Gifts', Far Eastern Economic Review, 13 November 1986, p. 32.

71. Quoted in 'China-USSR: Talks Still Conditional', Beijing Review, 1-7 February 1988, p. 13.

72. Quoted in 'Another Spratlys Spat', Asiaweek, 20 May 1988, p. 27. 73. US Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, The Third U.N. Law of

the Sea Conference, Washington DC, 5 February 1975, p. 3, quoted in Guy J. Pauker, 'The Security Implications of Regional Energy and Natural Resource Exploration', in Richard H. Solomon (ed.), Asian Security in the 1980s: Problems and Policies for a Time of Transition (a RAND Corp. Research Study), 2nd edn, Oelgeschlager, Gunn & Hain, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1980, p. 231.

74. 'The Trouble with Roubles, Asiaweek, 19 October 1986, p. 10; and 'Sweeping Change at the Top', Asiaweek, 4 January 1987, p. 12, respectively.

75. At the time of writing, it is too early to tell the impact of Western trade sanctions against China in response to the Chinese Government's violent suppression of the 'pro-democracy movement' in June 1989. Even if Western trading partners to not soften on the issue of sanctions, China has already explored alternative arrangements for the conti­nuance of its economic progress: plans to expand considerably its economic relations with the USSR are underway. See Seth Faison, 'China Wards off Western Chill with Soviet Trade', The Australian, 18 July 1989, p. 12.

Notes and References 233

76. The number of infantry divisions increased from 25 in 1978 to 61 in 1986, and an armoured division was formed in 1980. Since 1978, the Soviet Union supplied Vietnam's navy with 13 missile attack craft, two light frigates, three amphibious assault landing ships, two diesel­powered attack submarines, as well as other warships, while the air force received 60 bombers, 200 fighter aircraft comprising MiG-21s and MiG-23s, and helicopters capable of a variety of missions. (Douglas Pike, 'The Armed Forces of Asia and the Pacific: No.2 - Vietnam, a Modem Sparta', Pacific Defence Reporter, April 1983, p. 35.)

77. Jan S. Breemer, 'U.S.-Chinese Cooperation: The Naval Dimension', Proceedings of the United States Naval Institute [hereafter, Proceed­ings], February 1983, p. 75.

78. For example, in Science News (Kexue Bao) magazine in July and the Guangming Daily on 21 December.

79. Charles McGregor, The Sino-Vietnamese Relationship and the Soviet Un~on, Adelphi Paper No. 232, I1SS, Autumn, 1988, p. 18.

80. Ibid., p. 19. 81. The Age, 21 February 1983, p. 7. 82. Bradley Hahn, The Chinese Marine Corps', Proceedings, March 1986,

p.117. 83. Anthony Paul, 'Soviet Stakes', Asiaweek, 16 March 1986, p. 56. 84. Hahn, 'Hai Fang', Proceedings, March 1984, pp. 125-6. 85. The first high-level Soviet visit to Beijing since 1969 - that of First

Deputy Premier Ivan Arkhipov - had been scheduled to take place that month. In early May, Tass condemned 'China's military provocations' against Vietnam and Pravda denounced China for 'violating' Vietnam's sovereignty.

86. Quoted in 'Indochina: New Distractions', Asiaweek, 26 April 1987, p.17.

87. Quoted in 'Beijing Rapidly Modernising Its Blue-Water Navy', South China Morning Post, 7 May 1987, p. 10.

88. Yin Zhiping, 'China's Sovereignty Over the Nansha Islands Indisput­able', Beijing Review, 2~29 May 1988, p. 5.

89. 'New Ocean Survey Site Operating in Spratlys', South China Morning Post, 1 August 1988, p. 7

90. Xinhua, 31 July 1988, cited in ibid. 91. B.P. Mahony, 'Sino-Vietnamese Security Issues: Second Lesson Ver­

sus Stalemate', conference paper, Asian Studies Association of Austra­lia Biennial Conference, University of Sydney, May 1986, p. 19.

92. The figure was based on satellite-derived intelligence rather than the SRV claim of 200000 (see Asiaweek, 8 June 1984, p. 17).

93. Hanoi-based diplomat, quoted in Asiaweek, 20 April 1984, p. 7. 94. Segal, Defending China, op. cit., p. 219. 95. David Bonavia, 'New System, Old Logic', Far Eastern Economic

Review, 4 July 1985, p. 4l. 96. Mahony, loco cit., p. 18. 97. Beijing Institute for International and Strategic Studies report, pre­

sented to the North American-European-Japanese Trilateral Commis­sion meeting, Beijing, May 1981.

234

98.

99.

100. 101.

102. 103.

104. 105.

106.

107.

108.

109. 110.

11I. 112.

113.

114.

Notes and References

Martin L. Lasater and L.J. Lamb, 'Taiwan: Deterrence to Remain Unchanged', Pacific Defence Reporter, June 1985, p. 37. Quoted in Carl Goldstein, 'Ruling Rights Retained', Far Eastern Economic Review, 30 July 1987, p. 18. Pacific Defence Reporter, June 1988, p. 39. See Martin L. Lasater, 'The PRC's Force Modernization: Shadow Over Taiwan and U.S. Policy', Strategic Review, Winter 1984, p. 61; and Vice Adm. Edwin K. Snyder (US Navy, Retd.), 'Security Needs of the Republic of China', seminar paper, Western Pacific Security: Prob­lems and Prospects, The Freedom Council, Taipeh, August 1984, pp. 3-4. Snyder, ibid., p. 4. Dr Chang King-yuh, Director-General of Taiwan's Government Infor­mation Office and the Government's chief official spokesman, quoted in 'Makers of a Miracle', Asiaweek, 28 June 1985, p. 41. Ibid. An interesting comparison may be found in the Falklands War of 1982. Argentina's action to reclaim the Malvinas (Falklands) coincided with the approach of the 150th anniversary of Argentina's claim, which was backed by strongly nationalist sentiment, to the British-held Islands. (The British had reasserted colonial control over the Falklands in 1833.) The expression gained currency during the Sino-British negotiations over Hong Kong, when the Chinese referred to the colony's status as a 'question left over from history'. The Chinese have used the expression in other contexts, for example: 'Border issues were left to us by history.' (Foreign Minister Wu Xuequian speaking of the Sino-Indian border dispute, quoted in David Bonavia, 'Troubled Frontiers', Far Eastern Economic Review, 4 September 1986, p. 15.) An expression typical of Chinese references to the subject, in this case uttered by PRC Vice Foreign Minister Zhong Xidong in 1981 ('CCP­KMT Cooperation', FBIS, Daily Report: People's Republic of China, 2 September 1981, p. W1). Robert Karniol, 'New Arms for Old', Far Eastern Economic Review, 30 July 1987, pp. 15-17. Lasater and Lamb, loco cit., p. 38. Quoted in William V. Kennedy, 'The Taiwan Dilemma', National Defense, May-June 1982, p. 54. 'The Sino-American Chill', Newsweek, 8 March 1982, p. 6. Zi Zhongyun and Zhuang Qubing, 'Sino-US Relations: Opportunities and Potential Crisis', Beijing Review, 14 October 1985, p. 24. Quoted in Nayan Chandra, 'A Technical Point: US Rejects China's Stance on Technology Transfers to Taiwan', Far Eastern Economic Review, 28 August 1986, p. 26. The Chinese believe that superpower competition will continue well into the next century ('Chinese Foreign Relations: Adaptation, a Sign of Continuity', China News Analysis, 1 May 1986, p. 9). Ibid.

Notes and References 235

115. US State Department spokesman Charles Redman, quoted in 'China: Missiles Sold to Saudi Forces', Asian Defence Journal, May 1988, p. 105.

116. 'Secret Missile Deal with Israel', Asian Defence Journal, May 1988, p. 115

117. Quoted in Peter Ellingsen, 'Chinese to Continue Arms Sales to Mid­East', The Age, 8 September 1988, p. 10.

118. 'NPC Condemns US Meddling', Beijing Review, 4-10 January 1988, p.6.

119. Li Jiaquan, 'How Come Taiwan's Policy Changes', Beijing Review, 15-28 February 1988, p. 18.

120. IISS (London) information, specified for the period 1979-83, cited by Carl Goldstein, 'The Military Weans Itself from Dependency on US', Far Eastern Economic Review, 8 May 1986, p. 28.

121. First August Radio, 'USA Deceiving China over Taiwan', in SWB, 8 February 1983.

122. See 'The Case of the Missing Scientist', Asiaweek, 8 April 1988, p. 19; and 'CIA Spying on Taiwan', Asian Defence Journal, May 1988, p. 116.

123. Cited in 'The Case of the Missing Scientist', loco cit. 124. Snyder, op. cit., p. 5. 125. From excerpt, 'China's Reunification: What Prospects Now?', Asia­

week, 27 August 1982, p. 30. 126. Tu Guowei, interview with the Hindustan Times, cited by J. Mohan

Malik, 'The China Border: Tension Reduced But Settlement Distant', Pacific Defence Reporter, July 1988, p. 30.

127. Expressed privately by a Chinese diplomat in New Delhi, 'Chinese Soldiers Mass on Border', Agence France-Presse, in The Weekend Australian, 3(}-31 August 1986, p. 7.

128. Chinese Foreign Minister Wu Xueqian said that 'reports from foreign agencies have exaggerated the event along the Sino-Indian border'. ('Peaceful Border Solution Sought', South China Morning Post, 22 May 1987, p. 7.)

129. 'What McMahon Wrought', The Economist, 23 May 1987, p. 32. 130. Quoted in 'A Fresh Chill at the Border', Asia week , 4 January 1987,

p.20. 131. India's undeclared nuclear arsenal in 1988 is based on CIA estimates;

the projection for 1990 comes from a report by the Carnegie Endow­ment Task Force on Non-Proliferation, released in 1988.

132. US intelligence sources cited in Asian Defence Journal, May 1988, p. 104.

133. K. Subrahmanyam, interview in Asiaweek, 30 August 1987, p. 62. 134. Quoted in Eileen Alt Powell, 'India: The Nuclear Debate', Pacific

Defence Reporter, July 1988, p. 26. 135. Rajiv Gandhi's reaction to a US intelligence report of November 1987

that Pakistan had a nuclear device. Reported in 'India May Build an A-Bomb - Gandhi', Asian Defence Journal, January 1988, p. 102.

136. Quoted in Asia 1987 Yearbook, Far Eastern Economic Review Lim­ited, Hong Kong, 1987, p. 169.

236 Notes and References

137. Ian Wilson, 'North Korea and Security Problems in Northeast Asia', conference paper, Asian Studies Association of Australia Sixth National Conference, Sydney, 12-16 May 1986, pp. 3-4.

138. Michael Sadykiewicz, 'The Geostrategic Role of Korea in the Soviet Military Doctrine', Asian Perspective (Seoul), Spring/Summer 1983, quoted in Byung Chul Koh, 'China and the Korean Peninsula', Korea and World Affairs, Summer 1985, p. 255.

139. This dilemma was expressed, for instance, by John Hackett, The Third World War: The Untold Story, Macmillan, New York, 1982, p. 296; and 'A Walk on the Wild Side', Asiaweek, 23 March 1984, p. 5.

140. Zhang Xiangshan of the CPC International Liaison Department, quoted in Jonathan D. Pollack, 'U.S.-Korea Relations: The China Factor', Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, Fall 1985, p. 21.

141. Quoted in Pollack, loco cit. 142. The uncertainty of whether a North Korean attack would be 'a uni­

lateral act or a prelude to Soviet military action in the Pacific' is noted in Larry A. Niksch (specialist in Asian affairs for the US Congressional Research Service), 'Korea - Democracy and Security: Can the Two Co-exist?', Pacific Defence Reporter, November 1987, p. 29.

143. 'On the Publishing of the First Volume of Selected Military Writings of Kim II-sung, A Great Guide to Superb Strategies and Tactics of the Anti-Japanese Revolutionary War and to the Building of the Revol­utionary Forces', Rodong Shinmun, 19 April 1972, pp. 2-3, quoted in Young Choi, 'The North Korean Military Buildup and its Impact on North Korean Military Strategy in the 19805', Asian Survey, March 1985, pp. 343-4.

144. Gen. John A. Wickham, Jr, before the US House Armed Services Committee, March 1982, quoted in Young Choi, ibid, pp. 348-9.

145. Ibid., p. 355. 146. Robert Y. Horiguchi, 'Moves to Counter Soviet Threat', Pacific De­

fence Reporter 1987 Annual Reference Edition, p. 49. According to the Japan Defense Agency, the USSR has been redeploying troops here since 1978:

The Soviet Union has brought into these islands not only tanks, APCs, an assortment of artillery pieces, antiaircraft missiles and M1-24 Hind attack helicopters, but also 130 mm cannons which were usually not found in the equipment of an ordinary Soviet division. The troops deployed in the Northern Territories have been actively engaged in various types of training.

The number of MiG-23, Flogger fighters deployed ... on Etorofu Island has been increased. About 40 such aircraft are currently deployed.

(Japan Defense Agency, Defense of Japan 1986 (White Paper), The Japan Times Ltd., Tokyo, 1986, p. 32.)

147. By service, the figure comprises 2400 army, 16200 air force, 8100 navy, 38000 marines. (The Military Balance 1988-1989, op.cit., p. 28.)

148. Adm. Ronald J. Hays, US Commander-in-Chief, Pacific, in an inter-

Notes and References 237

view with Denis Warner, 'View from the Top', Pacific Defence Re porter, August 1987, p. 11.

149. Japan Defense Agency, loco cit., pp. 78-9. 150. Quoted in Bruce Loudon, 'Will Japan Re-arm?', The Weekend Austra-

lian, 14-15 November 1987, p. 21. 151. Ibid. 152. South China Morning Post, 8 October 1985, p. 6. 153. Judith Rees, Natural Resources: Allocation, Economies and Policy,

Methuen, New York, 1985, p. 192. 154. 'Brothers in Fortune', Asiaweek, 16 September 1988, p. 14. 155. Miguel Wionczek, 'Power Plays in Asia', Bulletin of the Atomic Scien­

tists, March 1983, p. 15. 156. See The Japan Economic Journal, 18 October 1986, p. 6. Other

defence dealings include unofficial Japanese arms exports to China. These include Oki Electric's sale of radars for the PLA Navy, according to the separate investigations of Reinhard Drifte and Kazuo To­miyama, and there is speculation among defence analysts that some components for China's own export weapons may have come from Japan. (Reported in 'Meet the New Arms Exporters', The Economist, 6 August 1988, p. 61.)

157. Quoted in an Agence France-Presse article by Georges Biannic, 3 May 1979, in 'French General Comments on PRC's Defence Modernization Plans', FBIS, Daily Report: People's Republic of China, 4 May 1979, p. G1.

158. The warning is attributed to the Korean king who had been defeated by Hideyoshi. It came as a response to the shogun ruler's expressed intention of conquering China as well.

159. Derived from his statement: 'All warfare is based on deception'. (Sun Tzu, op. cit., p. 66.)

Conclusion

1. I Ching: Book of Changes (trans. James Legge), Causeway Books, New York, 1973, p. 410.

2. Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations, US Senate, 96th Congress, 16 September 1980, US Government Printing Office, Washingon DC, 1981, p. 29.

3. Don A Starry, Foreword, in Richard E. Simpkin, Race to the Swift: Thoughts on Twenty-First Century Warfare, Brassey's Defence Publishers, London, 1985, p. X.

4. Mao Zedong reportedly said in 1965: 'All I want are six atom bombs, with these bombs I know that neither side will attack me'.

Appendix 1 The Chinese Armed Forces

1. Derived from The Military Balance 1988-1989, IISS, London, 1988, pp. 146-51.

238 Notes and References

Appendix 2 Chinese Nuclear Forces

1. This writer agrees with Hahn that China's newly acquired MIRV capa­bility (1985) may be presumed to have extended to existing launch systems. (Bradley Hahn, 'Beijing's Growing Global Missile Reach', Pacific Defence Reporter, February 1987, p. 13.)

2. The Military Balance 1985-1986, IISS, London, 1985, p. 140. 3. Hahn, loco cit., p. 13. 4. The lower figure is given by Hahn, ibid.; the higher by Richard Nations,

'Joining the League', Far Eastern Economic Review, 24 April 1986, pp. 14-15.

5. Nations, ibid. 6. The lower estimate of two is derived from The Military Balance

1988-1989, IISS, London, 1988, p. 147. About 5 DF-5s and 'several' DF-6s are listed in 'World Missile Directory', Flight International, 7 February 1987, p. 31. The reported estimate of 10 is noted in Alastair I. Johnston, 'Chinese Nuclear Force Modernization: Implications for Arms Control', Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, vol. 2, 1983, p. 26, note 24.

7. Bradley Hahn,"Quick Nuclear Leap Leads to Credible Nuclear Deter­rent', Pacific Defence Reporter, May 1987, p. 30.

8. Research Institute for Peace and Security, Asian Security, RIPS, Tokyo, 1980, p. 25, cited by Johnston, loco cit., p. 17.

9. The figure of four is supplied by The Military Balance 1988-1989, loco cit.; the figure of eight by Flight International, loco cit.; and Hahn, 'Quick Nuclear Leap ... ', loco cit., lists 40.

to. The Military Balance 1988-1989, loco cit., pp. 18,33. 11. Hahn, 'Beijing's Growing Global Missile Reach', loco cit., p. 13. 12. Ibid. 13. Hahn, 'Quick Nuclear Leap ... ', loco cit. 14. Robert G. Sutter, China's Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Policies:

Implications for the United States (88-374 F), Congressional Research Service, The Library of Congress, USA, 16 May 1988, p. 19.

15. The Military Balance 1988-1989, loco cit., pp. 146; and Proceedings of the US Naval Institute, March 1986, p. 65.

16. The Military Balance 1987-1988, loco cit., pp. 145-6. 17. Ibid., p. 146.

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THOMPSON, Robert. Revolutionary War in World Strategy 1945-1969. Secker & Warburg, London, 1970.

US MILITARY ACADEMY, DEPARTMENT OF MILITARY ART AND ENGINEERING. ]omini, Clausewitz and Schlieffen. West Point, New York, 1967.

VERTZBERGER, Yaacov Y.I. China's Southwestern Strategy: Encircle­ment and Counterencirclement. Praeger, New York, 1985.

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Yearbooks

Central Intelligence Agency. Handbook of Economic Statistics (CPAS 86-100(2). Directorate of Intelligence, US Government Printing Office, Washington DC, Sep. 1986.

China Official Yearbook 1983/84. Dragon Pearl Publications, Hong Kong, 1983.

Far Eastern Economic Review. Asia Yearbook. Far Eastern Economic Re­view Limited, Hong Kong, 1981, 1983, 1986 and 1988 issues.

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Articles

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246 Selected Bibliography

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GLASER, Bonnie S., and GARRETT, Banning N. 'Chinese Perspectives on the Strategic Defense Initiative.' Problems of Communism, March­April 1986, pp. 28-44.

GODWIN, Paul H.B. 'China's Defense Modernization: Of Tortoise Shells and Tigers' Tails.' Air University Review, November-December 1981, pp. 2-19.

HAHN, Bradley. 'Hai Fang.' Proceedings of the United States Naval Insti­tute, March 1984, pp. 114-20.

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JOHNSTON, Alastair I. 'Chinese Nuclear Force Modernization: Impli­cations for Arms Control.' Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, vol. 2, 1983, pp.13-28.

LAWSON, Eugene K. 'China's Vietnam War and its Consequences: A Comment.' The China Quarterly, December 1981.

LEE, Ngok. 'Dimensions of China's Defence Policy for the 1980s and Beyond.' Asian Studies Association of Australia, November 1985, pp. 133-41.

LIU, Leo Yueh-yun. 'The Modernization of the Chinese Military.' Current History, vol. 79, no. 458, September 1980, pp. 9-13, 38-40.

MACKERRAS, Colin. 'China and Disarmament.' Peace Studies, April 1985, pp. 7-9.

MEYER, Stephen M. 'Soviet Strategic Programs and the US SDI.' Survival, November-December 1985, pp. 274-92.

MILIVOJEVIC, Marko. 'The People's Liberation Army of China.' Armed Forces, August 1988, pp. 362-7.

MORRISON, David C. 'Regional Runners in Space.' Pacific Defence Re­porter, February 1985, pp. 11-15.

MOS'KO, G. 'Beijing's Nuclear Missile Program.' Soviet Press, May 1982, pp.164-8.

MUNSON, Kenneth. 'China's Air Power: Making Haste Slowly.' Jane's Defence Review, September 1983, p. 876.-

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248 Selected Bibliography

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The China Quarterly, June 1982, pp. 231-45. ROMANCE, Francis J. 'Modernization of China's Armed Forces.' Asian

Survey, vol. 10, no. 3, March 1980, pp. 298--310. SCHWARTZ, Benjamin. 'Modernisation and the Maoist Vision - Some

Reflections on Chinese Communist Goals.' The China Quarterly, January -March 1965, pp. 3-19.

SEGAL, Gerald. 'China's Security Debate.' Survival, vol. 24, no. 2, March-April 1982, pp. 68-77.

SUTTER, Robert. 'The Strategic Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia for China.' The Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 8, no. 4, December 1985, pp. 49-56.

TALBOTT, Strobe. 'Swords into Sample Cases.' Time (Australian edn), 18 July 1988, pp. 24--6.

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AND DEPARTMENT OF STATE. 'Soviet Strategic Defence Programs.' Backgrounder, United States Infor­mation Service, 10 October 1985.

YOST, David S. 'Soviet Ballistic Missile Defence and NATO.' NATO Review, October 1985, pp. 1(}-18.

YOUNG, P. Lewis. 'China's Foreign Policy Toward the Year 2000: Pros­pects for Sin<Hioviet Rapprochement.' Asian Defence Journal, July 1983, pp.26-33.

--. 'The Law of the Sea and Potential Conflicts in Asia'. Asian Defence Journal, April 1984, pp. 27-8.

Monographs, Conference and Seminar Papers

Ball, Desmond. Strategic Defences: Concepts and Programs. Working Paper No. 99, SDSC, ANU, Canberra, 1986.

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY. China: The Continuing Search for a Modernization Strategy (ER 80-10248). National Foreign Assessment Center, Washington DC, April 1980.

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CHENG, David Che-min. 'The Security Needs of the Republic of China.' Seminar paper. Western Pacific Security: Problems and Prospects. The Freedom Council, Taipeh, August 1984.

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DZIRKALS, Lilita I. 'Lightning War' in Manchuria: Soviet Military Analysis of the 1945 Far East Campaign (P-5589). RAND Corp., Santa Monica, California, January 1976.

FEWfRELL, David. The Soviet Economic Crisis: Prospects for the Military and the Consumer. Adelphi Paper No. 186. IISS, London, Winter 1983.

GELBER, Harry. Nuclear Weapons and Chinese Policy. Adelphi Paper No. 99. IISS, London, 1973.

GLASER, Kurt. 'Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Asian Balance.' Seminar paper. Western Pacific Security: Problems and Prospects. The Freedom Council, Taipeh, August 1984.

HOUSE, Jonathan M. Toward Combined Arms Warfare: A Survey of 20th-Century Tactics, Doctrine and Organisation. Research Survey No.2, Combat Studies Institute, US Government Printing Office, Washington DC, August 1984.

KING, John Kerry (ed.). International Political Effects of the Spread of Nuclear Weapons. CIA, US Government Printing Office, Washington DC, April 1979.

LEE, Ngok. 'Chinese Strategic Thinking'. Seminar paper. ANU, Canberra, 2 September 1982.

--. The Chinese People's ~iberation Army 1980-82: Modernisation, Strategy and Politics. SDSC, ANU, Canberra, 1983.

--. 'Defending China: Chinese Air Land Battle - An Application of People's War Under Modern Conditions.' Conference paper. Asian Studies Association of Australia Sixth National Conference. University of Sydney, 12-16 May 1986.

HART, Liddell. The Strategy of Indirect Approach. Faber & Faber, London, 1941. Reprint in Australian Defence and Strategic Studies. Book A. Deakin University, Victoria, 1985.

McGREGOR, Charles. The Sino-Vietnamese Relationship and the Soviet Union. Adelphi Paper No. 232, IISS, Autumn 1988.

McMILLEN, Donald H. The Uriimqi Military Region: Defence and Security in China's West. Working Paper No. 50, SDSC, ANU, Canberra, 1982.

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MAHONY, B.P. 'Sino-Vietnamese Security Issues: Second Lesson Versus Stalemate.' Conference paper. Asian Studies Association of Australia Biennial Conference. University of Sydney, May 1986.

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POLLACK, Jonathan D. Defense Modernization in the People's Republic of China (N-1214-1-AF). RAND Corp., Santa Monica, California, Oct. 1979.

--. China's Military Modernization, Policy and Strategy (P.6641). RAND Corp., Santa Monica, California, Dec. 1980.

250 Selected Bibliography

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SUITER, Robert G. China's Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Policies: Implications for the United States (88-374 F). Congressional Research Service, The Library of Congress, USA, 16 May 1988.

ROBERTS, Thomas e. The Chinese People's Militia and the Doctrine of People's War. National Security Affairs Monograph Series. National Defense University Press, Washington DC, 1983.

WILSON, Ian. 'The DPRK and Sino-Soviet Relations in Northeast Asia.' Conference paper. 26th Annual Conference of the Australasian Political Studies Association. Melbourne, 27-29 August 1984.

--. 'North Korea and Security Problems in Northeast Asia'. Conference paper. Asian Studies Association of Australia Sixth National Conference. University of Sydney, 12-16 May 1986.

WRIGHT, Arthur F. (ed.). Studies in Chinese Thought. The American Anthropological Association, Memoir No. 75, December 1953.

3 PERIODICALS AND NEWSPAPERS

Aerospace Daily, New York, USA. The Age, Melbourne, Australia. Air University Review, Maxwell Air Force Base, USA. Air et Cosmos, Paris, France. Air Force Magazine, Arlington, USA. Air International, London, UK. Armed Forces, Weybridge, UK. Armed Forces and Society, Cabin John, USA. Asian Defence Journal, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Asian Studies Association of Australia, Sydney, Australia. Asian Survey, Berkeley, USA. Asian Wall Street Journal, Hong Kong. Asiaweek, Hong Kong. Aussen Politik, Hamburg, West Germany. The Australian, Sydney, Australia. The Australian Journal of Chinese Affairs, Canberra, Australia. Aviation Week & Space Technology, New York, USA. Beijing Review (formerly Peking Review), Beijing, PRC. Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Chicago, USA. China Daily, Beijing, PRe. China News Analysis, Hong Kong. The China Quarterly, London, UK. Comparative Strategy, New York, USA. Current History, New York, USA. Defense & Armament Heracles International, Paris, France. Defense Electronics, California, USA. Defense & Foreign Affairs (formerly Defense & Foreign Affairs Digest),

Washington, USA.

Selected Bibliography

Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, Washington, USA. Defense & Foreign Affairs Weekly, Washington, USA. Defence Helicopter World, Burnham, UK. Defense News, Springfield, USA. Defence Today, Rome, Italy. The Economist, London, UK. Far Eastern Economic Review, Hong Kong. Financial Review, Melbourne, Australia. Flight International, Surrey, UK. Foreign Affairs, New York, USA. Helicopter International, Avon, UK. Heracles, Paris, France. Interavia, Geneva, Switzerland. International Combat Arms, Los Angeles, USA. International Defense Review, Geneva, Switzerland. Jane's Defence Weekly, London, UK. Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, Washington, USA. The Journal of Strategic Studies, London, UK. Military Review, Fort Leavenworth, USA. Military Technology, Bonn, West Germany. Militronics, Surrey, UK. National Defense, Arlington, USA. Navy International, Surrey, UK. Orbis, Philadelphia, USA. Pacific Defence Reporter, Melbourne, Ausralia. Problems of Communism, Washington, USA. Reprints from the Soviet Press, New York, USA. Rotor & Wing International, Peoria, USA. Soldat und Technik, Frankfurt, West Germany. Soldiers of Glory, New York, USA. South China Morning Post, Hong Kong. Strategic Review, Waltham, USA. Survival, London, UK. Proceedings of the us Naval Institute, Annapolis, USA. Wing Newsletter, Tokyo, Japan.

4 TRANSLATION AND BROADCAST MONITORING SERVICES

251

BRmSH BROADCASTING CORPORATION (BBC). Summary of World Broadcasts (SWB). Reading, Berkshire, England.

CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES. World Affairs Report. California, USA.

FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE (FBIS). Daily Re­port: People's Republic of China. Washington DC, USA.

JOINT PUBLICATIONS RESEARCH SERVICE (JPRS). China Report. Washington DC, USA.

Index

Afghanistan, 108, 149; see also Mujahideen; wars attrition, 59, 62, 63, 89, 125, 130, 150, 156, 159,162-3,166,173,201,205

ballistic missile defences, 4, 94-6, 112, 122, 208-9; see also Strategic Defense Initiative, 'Red Shield', European Defence Initiative

blitzkrieg, 61-2, 81, 113-14, 117, 122, 124, 129, 191

Book of Changes, see I Ching

C3I, see command, control, communications and intelligence

Cambodia, 72, 82, 108, 111, 144, 147, 148-50, 155, 156, 159, 160, 162, 163, 165-6, 189

Central Intelligence Agency (US), 51, 53-4

chemical warfare, 64, 66-70, 120-2, 125, 126-7, 132, 169, 187; see also nuclear, biological and chemical warfare

Chiang Kai-shek, 12, 14, 15, 16 China, see People's Republic of

China CIA, see Central Intelligence

Agency civil defence, 31-6,67-8,83,85-7,

128, 130-1, 214 Qausewitz, Carl von, 11, 18,21 command, control, communications

and intelligence, 31, 54, 74, 126

Communist, 80,137,144, 166, 188, 190,202; Chinese, 14-17, 23, 26,36,38,52,130,141,167, 168, 170-1, 172, 178, 179-81; see also ideology, Marxism, Lenin

Cultural Revolution, see Great

Proletarian Cultural Revolution

defence, see nuclear, strategy, deterrence

Defense Intelligence Agency (US), 10

Deng Xiaoping, 1, 21, 23, 45, 49, 52, 111, 124, 145, 148-9, 162, 174, 180, 181, 183, 198

deterrence 1, 2, 12, 37, 39, 42, 46, 66,68,80,83-7,90,92,118, 128,165,168,178,179,201-2, 204, 207-8, 213; nuclear, 4, 32-4,44-5,64,79,85-8,91, 96, 98-99, 112, 122, 185, 192, 212; in people's war (traditional and modem), 12, 13-14,21,22,26-28,38-39, 74,80,84,87,91-2,99,187, 205; see also nuclear, strategy, guerilla nuclear warfare

diplomacy, 4, 33, 37, 104, 106, 110, 128, 129, 136, 138, 145, 154, 173,174-7,181,201-2

EDI, see European Defence Initiative

energy, 137-40, 143, 153, 198; coal, 137, 139-40, 197; oil, 108, 137-9, 153, 158, 159, 178, 180, 198, 199; natural gas, 137, 138,158; hydropower, 137; nuclear power, 137, 178

enhanced radiation weapons, 65, 66, 70, 123, 129, 132

European Defence Initiative, 97

food production, 51, 53, 142, 155, 207; grain, 137, 140-3; rice, 142; fishing, 153

GDP, see Gross Domestic Product Giap, Vo Nguyen, 17

252

Index 253

GMD, see Guomindang GNW, see guerilla nuclear warfare Gorvachev, Mikhail, 94, 104-5,

109, 138, 142, 148-9, 154, 162, 202

Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, 1,22,23,37,45, 75

Gross Domestic Product: China's, 50, 167, 186; Taiwan's, 167; India's, 186

Gross National Product, 209; China's, 42, 51, 170, 173; Taiwan's, 170, 177; Japan's, 197

guerilla nuclear warfare, 1,4,34, 78,88,91-9,124-5,128-34, 143,191,202,205,208

guerilla, see people's war, 'people's war under modern conditions'

Guomindang, 14-18,53,60, 151, 167, 170-1, 177-81; see also Taiwan

Hong Kong, 139, 155, 157, 170, 171, 172, 180

I Ching, 1,5,204 ICBM, see intercontinental-range

ballistic missiles ideology, 3, 11, 37-8, 43, 45-6;

'modern', 47, 'non-modern', 3, 47; see also Communist, Marxism, Lenin

India, 50, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 98, 114-15,158,164,181-7

Indochina, 17, 19, 72, 82, 120, 144-6, 148-50, 151, 153, 155-6, 160, 163, 166; see also Vietnam, wars

intercontinental-range ballistic missiles, 2, 59, 86, 87, 90, 94-5,126,128,208,212-13

intermediate-range ballistic missiles, 85, 87, 90, 123, 126, 213

IRBM, see intermediate-range ballistic missiles

Japan, 57,154,157,161,176,177, 187, 189, 193-200, 194; nuclear vulnerabilities, 23, 126, 199; see also wars

Jomini, Henri, 10, 21

Khmer, Rouge, 149; see also Indochina, Cambodia

Korea, 56, 57, 187-93; North, 85, 187-92, 195, 196; South, 50, 157, 176, 189-92, 200

Kuomintang, see Guomindang

Lawrence, T.E., 10, 12 Lenin, Vladimir Ilych, 11, 19 Long, March, 16, 17,37

Macao, 155, 170, 172 Mao Tse-tung, see Mao Zedong Mao Zedong, 12, 14-20,23,25-7,

30,31,42-3,44,47,79,109, 124, 141, 147, 166,206,208

Maoism, 3, 20, 191,202,204; see also Mao Zedong, people's war

Marxism, 177; war theory, 11,80 medium-range ballistic missiles, 87,

90,95, 123, 175,213,214 Military Regions (Chinese), 77-9,

116, 118, 164, 169, 183, 210 modernisation, 4, 27-8, 39, 49-50,

53,98, 105,202; of defence, 29,39,40-1,45-6,47-56,62, 64, 75, 92, 103, 154, 173-4, 208-9; four modernisations programme, 2, 35, 41-6, 48-51, 54, 104, 134, 137-8, 140-1, 155, 164, 170, 180, 190, 197, 198; see also technology

MRBM, see medium-range ballistic missiles

Mujahideen, 55, 63, 118, 130; see also Afghanistan

Napoleon, I, Bonaparte, 9, 10, 12, 127

Nationalist Party (Taiwan), see Guomindang

254 Index

NATO, see North Atlantic Treaty Organisation

NBC, see nuclear, biological and chemical warfare

neutron bomb, see enhanced radiation weapons

North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, 81, 88-9,97, 106,119,120,123,127,205

nuclear: strategy, 4, 32-4, 65, 78, 84-6, 112, 119, 127; battlefield, 27, 41, 64, 75, 79, 86, 91, 97-8, 205, 212; weapons, 1,2,23,39,56,64, 169,178,185,187,191,202, 204; force, 3, 44-5, 60, 63, 64, 79, 84-5, 109-10, 123-4, 126, 178, 185, 192, 195, 204, 212-14; targets, 24, 25, 79, 85, 86,88,89,90,93,99,112, 122-3, 128, 139, 186, 215; radiation, 36, 66, 67, 119, 126, 131-3, 141-2, 207; see also nuclear, biological and chemical warfare, intercontinental-range ballistic missiles, intermediate-range ballistic missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles, short-range ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles; ballistic missile defences, Strategic Defense Initiative, European Defence Initiative, enhanced radiation weapons, Japan, energy

nuclear, biological and chemical warfare, 32, 33, 34, 67, 120-1, 132-3; see also nuclear, chemical warfare

Pakistan, 55, 63, 65, 130, 158, 183, 185

'paper tiger', 23, 37, 82 Paracel Islands, 57, 110, 159, 162 People's Liberation Army, 2, 13,

17,29-30,36-9,46,47,53-5, 57,62-3,66,70,75-81,84,

92, 132-3, 163-4,204--8,211; Army, 60-1,67,69,77, 159-60, 162, 169, 180, 183-4, 210; Air Force, 57-60, 63-4, 77, 113, 169, 196,210; Navy, 60, 64, 151-2, 154, 159, 160-2, 169, 196, 210; Group Armies, 71, 81, 111, 116,210; elite forces, 71-2, 74-5, 90, 103, 124,130-2,154,186-7;see also wars, weapons

People's Republic of China, 1, 5, 9, ~,n,~,n,~,~,44,~, 56-7,58,66,75-6,84,88,96, 98, 103, 137-43, 153, 168, 169, 171-2,175,206-9

people's war, 3,4,9-28, 32, 36-9, ~, 48, 54, 69, 74, 79-80, 83, 98, 116, 125, 127, 150, 156, 166, 170, 186, 191, 195,201, 204

'people's war under modern conditions', 1, 4, 5, 9, 19, 28, 29-36,38,40-1,46,47,69, 71,78-82,83-6,91-2,97,99, 103, 106, 118, 121-2, 129, 136, 1~, 165, 173, 187, 190-1, 198, 200-7; see also guerilla nuclear warfare

perestroika, 104, 154, 202 Philippines, 150-3, 154, 158,

160-1, 162 philosophy: Chinese, 3, 47, 145-6;

military, 18-22,33,42, 103, 156, 165, 202, 206; see also ideology

PLA, see People's Liberation Army

PRC, see People's Republic of China

'pro-democracy movement' (June 1989),22,155,170,175,179

Reagan, Ronald, 94-5, 160, 161 'Red Shield', 94, 96

satellites, 31, 118, 176 scenarios (war), 111-134, 139, 154,

158-9,163,165-6,201,206-7

Index 255

SDI, see Strategic Defense Initiative

short-range ballistic missiles, 65, 87,90, 133,213,214

SLBM, see submarine-launched ballistic missile

Soviet: military, 53, 57, 60, 67, 80, 84,87,94,105-8,136,160, 173, 186, 192, 193-6,204, 206; aid to China, 36-7, 44, split with China, 37, 109; improved relations with China, 52, 104-5, 110-11, 138, 148-9, 154, 175, 176, 185, 198; see also Union of Soviet Socialist Republic, Gorbachev, wars, weapons

Soviet Union, see Union of Soviet Socialist Republics

Spratly Islands, 57, 150-5, 158-9, 160-2

SRBM, see short-range ballistic missiles

'Star Wars', see Strategic Defense Initiative

Strategic Defense Initiative, 94-7 strategy, 61, 74, 82, 135-6, 148-50,

163, 165, 209; offensive, 4, 14, 20, 79, 80, 119, 181, 191; defensive, 4, 13, 14, 80; nuclear, 4, 32-4, 83-99, 123, 185, 186, 205, 208; indirect, 19-20, 26, 92, 208; see also 'people's war under modem conditions', people's war, blitzkrieg, attrition

submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 2, 85, 126, 130, 199, 213-14

Sun Tzu, 13, 20, 22, 26, 33, 136, 170,201

Taiwan, 57, 58, 61, 74, 79,106, 150-1, 167-81, 186; see also Guomindang, weapons

technology, 50, 54-6, 60, 82, 89, 97, 136, 138, 143, 173-4, 176, 196,198,199,205,206,208-9; 'high-tech', 50, 74, 82, 197,

206; 'mid-tech', 3, 41, 54-6, 63, 64, 74, 82, 83, 173, 205, 213; 'low-tech', 62, 63, 69, 205; see also modernisation, weapons

Teng Hsiao-ping, see Deng Xiaoping

terrorism, 11 Thailand, 55, 159, 165-6 Tibet, 110, 114-15, 164, 176, 181,

183-5,186 time: as variable in Chinese

strategic thought, 2-3, 46-50, 170, 173

Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, 2, 32, 34, 51, 56, 57,58,78,79,85,86-7,90-4, 96-7, 103-43, 144, 154-7, 166-7, 169, 170, 174, 175, 190, 193,200,205; see also wars, weapons, Gorbachev, scenarios

United States of America, 2, 23, 51, 56, 58, 86, 89, 118, 120, 129, 134, 136, 137, 154, 160, 165, 169, 174-8, 189, 193, 195-6,200,205; see also weapons, Reagan

USA, see United States of America USSR, see Union of Soviet

Socialist Republics

Vietnam, 17, 19,26,33,51,52,56, 57,58, 60, 61, 79, 93, 106, 108, 112, 125, 128, 144-67, 169, 179, 189, 195,202,204; see also Indochina, Cambodia, wars

wars: nature of, 3; theory of, 19, 125; Japanese invasion of China (1937), 12, 14, 17,52, 53, 120, 180, 188, 196; Pacific (1941), 188, 196, 202; Soviet-Japanese (Manchuria 1945), 117, 119; Korean, 36, 56,73, 80; Vietnamese (First, Second and Third Indochina Wars), 63, 71-4, 82, 118, 130,

256 Index

144, 149, 166, 206; Sino-Soviet, 56, 109, 110, 126, 130, 141; Sino-Vietnamese, 38,56,61,67, 78, 80, 111, 136, 145, 147, 149, 160, 164, 166; Sino-Indian, 56, 61, 80, 115, 181-2; Iran-Iraq, 56, 69-70, 120; Afghanistan, 118, 120, 125, 130, 149; see also strategy, scenarios, Japan, Guomindang

Warsaw Pact, 119, 127 weapons: Soviet, 36, 48, 53, 58,

59-60,62-6,68,73,86,87, 89,94-5,157,189,205;

American, 63, 66, 68, 74, 94-5, 173-4, 176-7, 195; Chinese 48, 55, 57, 59-60, 62, 63,73-4,77,84-5,87,92, 173, 189, 192, 205, 206, 212-14; Taiwanese, 173, 177-8; Korean (North and South), 191-2; Japanese, 195-6, 197, 199; Chinese purchases of, 47-8, 55, 175; Chinese exports of, 55-6, 63, 64,69, 95, 166, 175-6,213; see also technology, modernisation, nuclear