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Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, 6th Edition
Cecilia Tam Special Advisor, APERC
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Please do not cite prior to release on 11 May
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
APEC Energy Outlook:
Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario
4 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Outlook for APEC Energy Demand
Final energy demand rises 32% from 2013 level by 2040. APEC’s energy intensity
reduction target of 45% cannot be met by 2035 in the BAU scenario.
Final energy demand in APEC region
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
2013 2020 2030 2040
En
erg
y i
nte
nsi
ty i
nd
ex
Mto
e
Agricultural and non-
specifiedCommercial
Residential
Transport
Industry
Non-energy
Energy intensity index
(right axis)
5 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Mto
e
Nuclear
Other
renewables
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
Fossil-Fuels Continue to Dominate Energy Mix
Energy supply in APEC region will more than double by
2040 from 1990 level.
Growth Rate 2013-2040
0.4%
0.7%
2.1%
2.3%
1.3%
1.3%
2013: 86%
Fossil Fuel
2040: 82%
Fossil Fuel
Source: IEA statistics 2015 and APERC analysis
Total primary energy supply by fuel, 1990 - 2040
6 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
5%
33%
27%1%
14%
20%Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Hydro
Other
renewables
Outlook for Power Sector
RE capacity expand to 34% by 2040, but fossil fuels dominate generation due to
relatively lower RE capacity factors. Doubling not achieved by 2030 nor 2040 in BAU
APEC installed capacity
Note: Other renewables include solar PV, CSP, onshore wind, offshore wind, biomass, geothermal and marine.
APEC electricity generation
2013 Capacity:
3 564GW
2040 Capacity:
6 415GW
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040
Sh
are
of
ren
ew
ab
les
TW
h
Other renewables
Hydro
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Share of renewables
(right axis)
Doubling level of
renewables share in
generation mix (right axis)
→ Projection
6%
39%
24%
5%
18%
8%
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
APEC Energy Outlook:
Improved Efficiency Scenario
8 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Improved Efficiency Scenario
Energy demand peaks post 2020, declining gradually as enhanced energy efficiency
policies help to lower demand
Final energy demand in APEC region
BAU Energy Demand
9 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
En
erg
y in
ten
sit
y in
dex
(2
00
5 b
ase y
ear)
BAU Energy Intensity Index Alternative Energy Intensity Index
APEC’s target in 2035 can be met earlier under the Improved Efficiency Scenario,
with energy savings equal to current demand of Russia, Japan and Korea
45% reduction target
2037 2032
Improved Efficiency Scenario
13% savings
921 Mtoe
10 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Industry Energy Demand
Energy efficiency measures in industry lead to a peaking in industrial
energy demand by 2025
11 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Road Transport Energy Savings
Vehicle fuel economy measures offer largest savings potential in transport
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
APEC Energy Outlook:
High Renewables Scenario
13 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Renewables in BAU and High Renewables Scenario
Final Energy Demand
Pathway to reaching the Renewables Doubling Goal
14 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Costs of RE technologies (solar and wind) have been declining from 2013 to 2040 in
different economies where the lowest LCOE is hydro in Viet Nam and the highest is
offshore wind in Peru.
Declining Electricity Cost from Renewables
15 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
High Renewables Scenario
Renewables mix varies across APEC, solar and wind see largest growth
2013 BAU: 819 GW / 2 716 TWh
2030 HR: 2 510 GW / 7 109 TWh
2040 HR: 3 041 GW / 8 911 TWh
GW TWhChina
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2013 2040 2013 2040
GW TWhUnited States
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
2013 2040 2013 2040
GW TWhOceania
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2040 2013 2040
GW TWhOther Americas
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013 2040 2013 2040
GW TWhOther north-east Asia
0
200
400
600
0
100
200
300
2013 2040 2013 2040
GW TWhSouth-East Asia
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013 2040 2013 2040
GW TWhRussia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2040 2013 2040
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Biomass and other
Geothermal
16 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Lack of Bioethanol Supply Potential
Almost all economies can increase biofuels use in the transport sector.
Advanced biofuel technologies needed, as higher supply potential based only on 1st
generation biofuels is insufficient to meet growing demand
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040
BAU High Renewables
Sh
are
of
bio
fuels
Mto
e
Biodiesel
demand
Bioethanol
demand
Biodiesel
supply
potential
Bioethanol
supply
potential
Share of
biofuels
(right axis)
17 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Biofuels Demand and Supply Potential
US has largest bioethanol supply potential, while South-East Asia has highest
biodiesel supply potential.
APEC biofuels trade is a must in short and medium term
Bioethanol demand and supply potential Biodiesel demand and supply potential
18 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
APEC Energy Related CO2 Emissions
INDC unconditional
INDC conditional
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt
CO
2
2°C
BAU
Improved efficiency
+ High Renewables
APEC economies need to raise INDC ambitions as well as APEC energy targets if the global climate goal is to be achieved
19 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
• Energy efficiency offers the most attractive option to improve
energy security and address climate change.
• Economies need to enhance renewable promotion policies in order
to double renewables in power mix.
• Cleaner coal technologies (CCS in particular), higher shares of
natural gas and expanded nuclear energy needed in addition to
renewables to decarbonise electricity.
• Investment (USD 17 to US 35 trillion) in energy supply needed to
address energy security concerns.
• APEC energy targets need to be enhanced to meet global climate
objectives which will require enhanced collaboration, economies
should monitor and strengthen INDCs where possible
Key Messages
20 APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Thank you for your attention! [email protected]
APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook Release 11 May 2016
available for download from http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/
