“The Belt & Road” National Industry & Information Technology Development Index

Publishing House of Electronics Industry President, WANG Chuan-chen

October 24, 2018

Table of Content

• Background

• Index System Structure

• Index Calculation Result

• Comprehensive Calculation Result

• Key Research Conclusion

• Outlook

2018 is the beginning year of implementing the spirit of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. “The Belt & Road" initiative was mentioned five times in the 19th National Congress report, to put strength on both “bringing in” and “gonging out”, to comply with the principle of achieving shared growth through discussion and collaboration, to enhance innovation capability and opening up cooperation. On this background, it is very important to do comprehensive evaluation for countries along “the Belt & Road” through quantitative analysis.

Therefore, a research team

was set up by Publishing

House of Electronics

Industry and China

Information Technology

Industry Federation, to

conduct industrial research

on “The Belt & Road”,

and introduced “The Belt

& Road” National Industry

& Information Technology

Development Index.

Background - 2018“The Belt & Road”Sails Again Calculation Method of Index System

Interpolation Method

Used when there is lack

of raw data for certain

period.

jR (x)=𝒙𝒋

𝒙𝒎𝒂𝒙−𝒙𝒎𝒊𝒏𝟐

×100

Delphi Method

Used for weighting

the index and

deciding the score

of qualitative index.

Linear Weighting

Based on the different

importance of each

target.

Standardization

• Core Index System Structure

• Sub-index Weighting Method

Index System Structure

Economic

Development Index

GDP per capita

Innovation Index

Innovation capability index

Information Technology Index

Individuals using the internet (% of pop.)

Government’s online service

Mobile-broadband subscriptions

Communications, computer, etc. export

Competitive Index

Foreign trade

competitiveness

Efficiency Index

Industrial productivity ratio

Infrastructure Index

Quality of port infrastructure

Electricity output per capita

Rail lines per capita

1

3

5

2

4

6

Sub-index Weighting Method Core Index System Structure This research uses Delphi method to decide the weighting of indexes. The scoring committee includes specialists from all over the world.

No. Index Weight Sub-index Sub-index

Weight

1 Economic

Development 25% GDP per capita 100%

2 Competitive 15% Foreign trade competitiveness 100%

3 Innovation 15% Innovation capability 100%

4 Efficiency 25% Industrial productivity ratio 100%

5 Information Technology

10%

Individuals using the internet 25%

Government’s online service 25%

Mobile-broadband subscriptions 25%

Communications, computer, etc. export

25%

6 Infrastructure 10%

Electricity output per capita 35%

Rail lines per capita 35%

Quality of port infrastructure 30%

The result of top 10 countries by index

shows that: Singapore and Israel takes

leading position in economics development,

innovation and information technology

construction; Estonia and Czech has better

score in infrastructure; while Saudi Arabia

has competitive advantage in industrial

productivity ratio.

Index Calculation Result (2017)

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210

Latvia

Lithuania

Slovakia

Greece

Estonia

Czech

Saudi Arabia

Slovenia

Israel

Singapore

Economic Development Index TOP 10

0 50 100 150 200

Slovakia

Russia

Hungary

Turkey

Malaysia

Czech

Poland

Thailand

India

Singapore

Competitive Index TOP 10

0 50 100 150

Bulgaria

Slovakia

Malaysia

Latvia

Hungary

Slovenia

Czech

Estonia

Israel

Singapore

Innovation Index TOP 10

0 50 100 150

Croatia

Slovakia

Lithuania

Turkey

Czech

Greece

Slovenia

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Efficiency Index TOP 10

0 50 100 150 200

Slovenia

Poland

Lithuania

India

Latvia

Russia

Malaysia

Israel

Estonia

Singapore

Information Technology Index TOP 10

0 50 100 150 200

Slovakia

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Bulgaria

Russia

Kazakhstan

Latvia

Slovenia

Czech

Estonia

Infrastructure Index TOP 10

Based on the outcome, the countries can be

classified into four categories, including Advanced

Countries (200-100), Stable Countries (100-70),

Potential Countries (70-35), Less Developed

Countries (35 and below). The breakdown of 2017

result by categories is Advanced Countries 5%,

Stable Countries 12.5%, Potential Countries 52.5%,

Less Developed Countries 30%.

Comprehensive Calculation Result

- Outcome

Category Country Total GDP per

Capita

Total Manufacture Export

Innovation

Industrial Productivi

ty Ratio

Information Technology

Infrastructure

Advanced Countries (200-100)

Singapore 165.62 201.30 197.37 143.82 140.18 177.29 113.39

Israel 107.44 140.46 38.72 136.51 90.24 137.72 97.05

Stable Countries (100-70)

Czech 87.14 71.04 112.62 117.19 40.28 101.49 146.86

Saudi Arabia

86.00 72.41 26.75 82.38 119.58 107.74 108.61

Slovenia 77.83 82.31 22.43 112.67 52.66 107.88 130.35

Potential Countries

(70-35)

Slovakia 67.31 61.40 51.85 103.08 33.73 97.51 105.36

Malaysia 67.30 34.69 102.19 103.75 30.39 123.46 77.97

Hungary 66.76 49.61 67.96 108.03 32.05 94.85 104.63

Russia 61.78 37.47 54.36 91.11 24.96 117.20 126.31

Less Developed Countries

(35-0)

Macedonia 34.89 18.98 2.80 71.90 11.40 90.83 70.00

Mongolia 33.81 13.03 0.22 86.30 17.77 64.24 67.05

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30

60

90

120

150

180

210

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2017 “The Belt & Road” Industry & Information Technology Development Index (Partial)

Total GDP per Capita Total Manufacture Export

Innovation Industrial Productivity Ratio Informatization

Infrastructure

2017 Comprehensive Calculation Result by Category (Partial)

Based on the 2017 comprehensive calculation ranking, country such as Singapore, Israel, Czech is relatively strong in the industry & IT area. While, country such as Pakistan, Cambodia, Kyrghyzstan is relatively weak in this area, however, these countries would have more potential for development.

Comprehensive Calculation Result

- Ranking

Country Total GDP per

Capita

Total Manufacture Export

Innovation

Industrial Productivi

ty Ratio

Information Technology

Infrastructure

Singapore 1 1 1 1 1 1 8

Israel 2 2 13 2 3 3 15

Czech 3 5 5 4 6 14 2

Saudi Arabia

4 4 15 25 2 11 9

Slovenia 5 3 17 5 4 10 3

Estonia 6 6 27 3 12 2 1

Poland 7 12 4 11 14 9 14

Slovakia 8 8 10 9 9 16 10

Malaysia 9 17 6 8 15 4 21

Hungary 10 11 8 6 11 21 11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

ASEAN West Asia Central &Eastern Europe

Commonwealthof the

IndependentStates

Central Asia East Asia South Asia Average

2017 Industry & Information Technology

Index Ranking by Region

Based on the ranking by region, the average score for ASEAN, West Asia, Central & Eastern Europe performs better.

2017 Comprehensive Index Top 10 Ranking

To cooperate with countries along “The Belt & Road”, all things

need to take into consideration, such as the country’s

development needs, cooperation desire, resource endowment,

investment environment, industry fundamental condition, etc.

Through using cluster analysis of data, the comparative

advantage of a country can be shown. Then based on the result,

different cooperation method, such as Cooperate & Learn,

Cooperate & Complement, Cooperate & Boost, can by applied.

Key Research Conclusion

- Precise Advancing Classification Strategy

Category No. Country Cooperation

Method

Advanced 3 Singapore, Israel, etc. Cooperate & Learn

Stable 8 Czech, Saudi Arabia, Slovenia, Estonia, etc. Cooperate & Complement

Potential 35 Malaysia, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Turkey, Latvia, Greece, Russia, etc. Cooperate & Complement

Less Developed 19 Bangladesh, Pakistan, Cambodia, Kyrghyzstan, etc. Cooperate & Boost

Cooperation Methods with Countries Along “The Belt & Road”

0

40

80

120

160

EconomicDevelopment

Competitive

Innovation

Efficiency

InformationTechnology

Infrastructure

Example of Potential Country’s 2017 Sub-index Growth (Russia)

Cooperation Methods with Advanced

Countries

Advanced countries have higher level of

industry & IT development. Chinese

companies can cooperate through learning,

capital financing, enhance communication

in emerging areas, etc.

Key Research Conclusion

- Cooperation Methods 050100150200250

EconomicDevelopment

Competitive

Innovation

Efficiency

InformationTechnology

Infrastructure

Example of Advanced Country’s 2017 Sub-index Growth (Singapore)

• Cooperation Methods with Advanced Countries

• Cooperation Methods with Stable Countries

• Cooperation Methods with Potential Countries

• Cooperation Methods with Less Developed Countries

0

40

80

120

160

EconomicDevelopment

Competitive

Innovation

Efficiency

InformationTechnology

Infrastructure

Example of Stable Country’s 2017 Sub-index Growth (Czech)

Cooperation Methods with Potential

Countries

Potential countries are the largest in number

and widest in distribution, featuring

abundant resources and high potential of

economic growth. Chinese companies can

cooperate using complementary advantages.

Cooperation Methods with Stable

Countries

Stable countries have shown satisfactory

performance in industry & IT area. China’s

industries with relative advantage can

achieve complementary supply & demand

through “going out”.

Cooperation Methods with Less Developed

Countries

Less developed countries have low industry

& IT development level, therefore higher

demand in areas such as infrastructure and

IT, which creates cooperation opportunity

for Chinese companies.

0102030405060

EconomicDevelopment

Competitive

Innovation

Efficiency

InformationTechnology

Infrastructure

Example of Less Developed Country’s 2017 Sub-index Growth (Bangladesh)

Outlook

The establishing of “The Belt & Road” Industry & Information Technology Development Index helps discover the condition of industry & IT development for alongside countries, also helps government & enterprises control risk level during foreign investment.

Continue to strengthen the effort on country research and information collection, deepen the research on industry subdivisions, provide more detailed reference for international cooperation in industry & IT area.

Enhance consultation service for enterprise, organize special topic research, release periodical risk forewarning research report on target country’s market, legal, policy condition in industry & IT area.

Strengthen the communication with offices stationed abroad, business departments and industry associations, establish information collecting network system, disclose industry & IT development of countries along “The Belt & Road” continuously and dynamically.

The establishing of this index system is a pioneering work, which faces lots of challenges. For the next step, the research team will keep on putting more strength on the integration of research resources, and set up an even wider “The Belt & Road” industry research league covering “Government, Industry, Corporation, Collage, Research”.

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