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“Nuclear Energy: What are the Options?”
Piyasvasti AmranandChief Advisor to Energy for Environment Foundation
Opportunities with Alternative Energyorganized by the Nationg y
Bangkok, Thailand
22 May 2009
Threats facing the World: Energy Security and Global Warming
Measures to reduce globalreduce global warming
•Coal
•Energy Efficiency•Renewable Energy•Wastes to Energy
To reduce global
i•Coal •Wastes to Energy•Nuclear•Reforestation
warming other non-energy measures
Measures to increase energy security
must also be implemented
gy y
Global climate change is a real threatGlobal climate change is a real threat
Energy-related CO2 emissions by region in IEA's R f C•Concentration Reference Case
35
40Share of GHG emission by N OECD t
•Concentration of CO2 to rise from 379 ppm to 1,000 ppm in
GHG emission rises by 46% between 2006-30
25
30
s Other Non-OECD
Non-OECD to rise from 52.5% in 2006 to 66.4% in 2030
to 1,000 ppm in 22nd century
•Global
15
20
Gig
aton India
ChinaOther OECDUSA
average temperature to rise from +1
5
10deg. C pre-industrial level to +6 deg. C
01980 1990 2000 2006 2020 2030
Drastic change in energy consumption needed to combat global warming
Change in World Energy Demand 2005-2030(CO2 stabilised at 450 ppm)
1 200
This will be very tough for Thailand
988
817800
1,000
1,200
Thailand's Primary Energy Consumption
3,500 PEC will rise by 90%
290 317410
400
600
800
Mto
e
2,500
3,000
3,500 y
in 2050 under very
conservative
assumptions 114
0
200
C l Oil G N l H d Bi Oth RE
M
1,500
2,000
2,500
kbd
coe
assumptions
-333-400
-200 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other RE
IEA: GHG emission from energy sector must
decline from 2012 with levels in 2030 and 500
1,000
1,500k
Source: IEA decline from 2012 with levels in 2030 and
2050 being lower than 2005 level by 13.5%
และ 48% respectively0
2007 2020 2030 2040 2050
Thailand is not prepared to cope with global measures to reduce GHG
& PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PEC) IN 2007EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE FROM FOSSIL FUELS IN 2005
Thailand: CDM projects with LoA as of 2 March 2009PEC
Total Per capita Per Capita(M.Tons) (Tons/person) (Tons/person)
Australia 407 20.24 6.05
CO2 Emissions
22.4%3.4%
6.9%1.7%
1.7%
Generation of power and heatfrom biomassBiogasAustralia 407 20.24 6.05
USA 5,957 20.14 7.98Netherlands 270 16.44 5.59Russia 1,696 11.88 4.85S K 450 10 27 5 34
g
Power generation from wastes
Power generation from wasteheatOrganic fertilizer from wastes
NO d ti i h i lS.Korea 450 10.27 5.34Germany 844 10.24 3.77Japan 1,230 9.65 4.06UK 577 9.55 3.57 63 8%
NOx reduction in chemicalindustry
France 415 6.59 4.05Malaysia 156 6.49 2.39China 5,327 4.07 1.42Thailand 234 3 65 1 33
•57 projects with LoA
63.8%
Thailand 234 3.65 1.33India 1,166 1.07 0.37 World 28,193 4.37 1.72Source: US DoE and BP
•GHG reduction of 4.2 MtCO2e/year
IEA’s proposed global electricity productionp p g y p
Global Electricity Production by Type in 2050
Hydrogen1.3%Solar
11 2% Nuclear
Wind12 2%
11.2%Tidal1.0%
Oil0.3%
Nuclear23.3%
Coal0.0%
Bi +CCSCoal +CCS
12 9%
12.2%
Geothermal2.5%
Gas4.1%
Biomass/waste3.8%
Biomass+CCS2.0%
12.9%
Gas+CCSHydro12.4% Gas+CCS
12.9%12.4%
Source: IEA
CHP/DG has grown significantly in Thailand over the past 17 yearsC / G s g ow s g c y d ove e p s 7 ye s
•SPP/VSPP: regulations issued in Power Purchase from SPP/VSPP1993•SPP/VSPP: cogeneration or generation of power from RE•Most SPP/VSPP are CHP/DG
14,000
16,000
10.0%
12.0%
GWh% of system generation
Most SPP/VSPP are CHP/DG•SPP: sale of excess power to grid 10-90 MW•VSPP: sale of excess power to
8 000
10,000
12,000
Wh
6 0%
8.0%
% grid < 10 MW•Direct sale without using utility’s wires allowed•10% of national power supply is4,000
6,000
8,000
GW
4.0%
6.0% %
10% of national power supply is from SPP. But if direct sale is included, power generation from SPP/VSPP accounts for 16% of 0
2,000
0.0%
2.0%
total electricity generation1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Price response by renewable energy is remarkablep y gy
SPP/ VSPP ั 2008Number
Gen. Capacity
Power Sale NumberGen.
CapacityPower Sale Number
Gen. Capacity
Power Sale
Projects Submitted Projects Approved Projects in Operation
สถานะ SPP/ VSPP ธันวาคม 2008 Capacity Capacity Capacity(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)
Cogeneration/Fossil fuels 56 5,445 3,416 52 5,401 3,403 28 2,741 1,676
N ti l 1 324 10 101 8 347 580 3 704 2 578 145 1 269 621Non-conventional 1,324 10,101 8,347 580 3,704 2,578 145 1,269 621
Biomass 376 4,335 2,822 181 2,426 1,422 67 1,213 589
Wastes 53 240 212 21 119 101 4 6 3
Biogas 109 222 189 78 121 101 24 26 19
Solar 659 3,030 2,864 279 932 856 45 2 2
Wind 115 2,247 2,239 10 78 78 1 0 0
Hydro 9 7 7 8 6 6 2 0 0
Others 3 21 14 3 21 14 2 21 8
SPP- mixed fossil+non-conventional 4 476 233 4 476 233 4 476 233SPP mixed fossil+non conventional 4 476 233 4 476 233 4 476 233
Total non-conventional 1,328 10,577 8,580 584 4,180 2,811 149 1,745 854
Grand total 1,384 16,021 11,996 636 9,581 6,214 177 4,486 2,530
Biomass has become a valuable commodityBiomass has become a valuable commodity
• Potential for power generation: 4 400 MW
9 MW rice husk power plantgeneration: 4,400 MW
• Target: 3,700 MW in 2022• Fuels: paddy husk,
bagasse woodchips palmbagasse, woodchips, palm wastes, palm shell, palm branches,corn cob, straw, coconut fibre, black liquor, q
• SPP and VSPP projects in operation: 71 projects, generating capacity 1,689 MW l t id 822MW, power sale to grid 822 MW.
• New projects: 309 projects with generating capacity ofwith generating capacity of > 3,000 MW
Woodchips becoming popular
Enormous wind potential in Northeast?
• Potential: 1,600 MW?? T t 800 MW b 2022• Target: 800 MW by 2022
• Current generating capacity:3.5 MW (EGAT, MoE)VSPP i ti 1 j t• VSPP in operation: 1 project with generating capacity of 0.08 MW
• New projects: 114 projects• New projects: 114 projects with total generating capacity of 2,246 MW
Sites for New Wind FarmsPetchabunN k h i Ch i hNakornratchasima ChaiyaphumKalasin/Roi-ET Mukdaharn
RE Target is far too low: 8,000 MW RE capacity is possibleRE Target is far too low: 8,000 MW RE capacity is possible
Proposed Power Purchase from SPP/VSPP RE
8,000
9,000
Original target: 5,604 MW in 2021
5 000
6,000
7,000OthersHydroWind
3 000
4,000
5,000
MW Solar
BiogasWastesBiomass
1 000
2,000
3,000
0
1,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
EfE’s proposed power purchase from SPP/VSPPEfE s proposed power purchase from SPP/VSPP
Power Purchase from SPP/VSPP Cogen and RE
60,000
70,000SPP RE+VSPP (Proposed Addition)SPP Cogen (Proposed Addition)SPP RE+VSPP (PDP Mar 2009)
Proposed addition40,000
50,000SPP Cogen (PDP Mar 2009)SPP+VSPP
Existing30,000
GW
h
PDP Mar 200910,000
20,000
0
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
Nuclear is staging a come back
Nuclear power plants under construction (end-August 2008)90
Nuclear share in electricity generation 2006
Country Number of reactors Capacity (MW)Argentina 1 692Bulgaria 2 1,906
437 nuclear power plants in operation60
70
80
ar p
ower
g ,China 6 5,220Chinese Taipei 2 2,600Finland 1 1,600France 1 1 600
in operation in 30 countries
40
50
60
y fro
m n
ucle
France 1 1,600India 6 2,910Iran 1 915Japan 2 2,16620
30
of e
lect
ricity
Korea 3 2,880Pakistan 1 300Russia 7 4,724Ukraine 2 1 900
0
10
E A M N E A A A Y Y AN D IN SA UK IA A A A O ZIL NDIA N A
%
Ukraine 2 1,900United States 1 1,165Total 36 30,578Source : IAEA
FRANC ELITHU AN IA
SLOVAK REPBELG IU MSWEDENUKRA INE
BULGAR IAARMENIASLOVEN IA
KOREA , REP . OF
HU NGARY
SW ITZER LAN DGERMANY
CZECH R EPJAPAN
F INLANDSPA IN
TA IW AN , CH IN AUSA URU SS IACANAD ARO MANIA
ARGENTINAMEXICO
SOUTH AFRICA
NETHERLAN DSBRAZIL
PAK ISTANINDIACH IN A
Without nuclear GHG emission from power sector will increasep
Thailand's Carbon Dioxide Emission from Electricity Generation
•GHG emission will increase drastically under current PDP 140
150
140
150
PDP 2007 (Mar 2009 adjustment)
(March 2009) which slows down nuclear power program•Incorporate higher renewable energy production120
130
120
130PDP 2007 (Increase RE and power import)
renewable energy production and power import, GHG emission declines slightly but the trend is still upwards.100
110
M. T
ons
100
110
M.T
ons
80
90
80
90
70
80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202170
80
Nuclear is inevitable if we are to combat global warmingg g
Thailand's Carbon Dioxide Emission from Electricity Generation150 150
Lower CO2 emission is due to•Much higher RE and CHP•Speed up of nuclear
140
150
140
150
PDP 2007 (Mar 2009 adjustment)
PDP 2007 (Increase RE,power import) •Speed up of nuclear program•Higher hydropower development in neighbouring
120
130
ns
120
130
ns
PDP 2007 (Increase RE,powerimport,nuclear)
countries
Unclear national policy100
110
M. T
on
100
110
M.T
on
Unclear national policy on global warming has caused wavering support for RE and nuclear80
90
80
90
for RE and nuclear
702007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
70
Nuclear has long lead time–preparation must be speeded upg p p p p
• Training, manpower Plan Begin constructionTraining, manpower• Feasibility study (wastes
disposal, decommissioning, fuel
Plan2007
L l d l t
Begin construction 2014
gsupply etc.)
• Location• Safety and other standards
Legal and regulatory framework established
2011
Power generation 2020
y• Establishment of legal and
regulatory framework • International treaties• Establishment of
supporting industries• Public acceptance
Community Development Fund Community Development Fund --y py pmoving too slowlymoving too slowly
Payment into Fund when in operationy p
Fuel Type Baht/kWh
Natural Gas 0.01
Fuel Oil and Diesel 0.015
Coal and Lignite 0.02
Renewable Energies- Wind and Solar
Biomass MSW Waste-
0 01
•Number of funds to be established: 102
- Biomass, MSW, Waste - Hydro
0.010.02
•Number of funds already established: 71
•Number of funds being set up: 4
•Money already transferred: 1,656 million baht
•Estimate funds revenue in 2009: 1,822 m.baht
But this is not enough To alleviate global warming we needBut this is not enough..To alleviate global warming we need..
Gi G i
• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)i l il il h l
Change in
GovernmentNew Technologies General Public
Create awareness, • Non Conventional Oil, Oil Shale,
Natural Gas Hydrate• 2nd generation biofuels • Solar (PV, CSP, Heating), Wind,
gbehaviours in all aspects of our daily lives
,concensus and drive changes which will involveother RE
• Hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
• Mass Transit
lives which will involve unpopular measures
• Energy efficiency technologies