“Nuclear Energy: What are the Options?”

Piyasvasti AmranandChief Advisor to Energy for Environment Foundation

Opportunities with Alternative Energyorganized by the Nationg y

Bangkok, Thailand

22 May 2009

Threats facing the World: Energy Security and Global Warming

Measures to reduce globalreduce global warming

•Coal

•Energy Efficiency•Renewable Energy•Wastes to Energy

To reduce global

i•Coal •Wastes to Energy•Nuclear•Reforestation

warming other non-energy measures

Measures to increase energy security

must also be implemented

gy y

Global climate change is a real threatGlobal climate change is a real threat

Energy-related CO2 emissions by region in IEA's R f C•Concentration Reference Case

35

40Share of GHG emission by N OECD t

•Concentration of CO2 to rise from 379 ppm to 1,000 ppm in

GHG emission rises by 46% between 2006-30

25

30

s Other Non-OECD

Non-OECD to rise from 52.5% in 2006 to 66.4% in 2030

to 1,000 ppm in 22nd century

•Global

15

20

Gig

aton India

ChinaOther OECDUSA

average temperature to rise from +1

5

10deg. C pre-industrial level to +6 deg. C

01980 1990 2000 2006 2020 2030

Drastic change in energy consumption needed to combat global warming

Change in World Energy Demand 2005-2030(CO2 stabilised at 450 ppm)

1 200

This will be very tough for Thailand

988

817800

1,000

1,200

Thailand's Primary Energy Consumption

3,500 PEC will rise by 90%

290 317410

400

600

800

Mto

e

2,500

3,000

3,500 y

in 2050 under very

conservative

assumptions 114

0

200

C l Oil G N l H d Bi Oth RE

M

1,500

2,000

2,500

kbd

coe

assumptions

-333-400

-200 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other RE

IEA: GHG emission from energy sector must

decline from 2012 with levels in 2030 and 500

1,000

1,500k

Source: IEA decline from 2012 with levels in 2030 and

2050 being lower than 2005 level by 13.5%

และ 48% respectively0

2007 2020 2030 2040 2050

Thailand is not prepared to cope with global measures to reduce GHG

& PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PEC) IN 2007EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE FROM FOSSIL FUELS IN 2005

Thailand: CDM projects with LoA as of 2 March 2009PEC

Total Per capita Per Capita(M.Tons) (Tons/person) (Tons/person)

Australia 407 20.24 6.05

CO2 Emissions

22.4%3.4%

6.9%1.7%

1.7%

Generation of power and heatfrom biomassBiogasAustralia 407 20.24 6.05

USA 5,957 20.14 7.98Netherlands 270 16.44 5.59Russia 1,696 11.88 4.85S K 450 10 27 5 34

g

Power generation from wastes

Power generation from wasteheatOrganic fertilizer from wastes

NO d ti i h i lS.Korea 450 10.27 5.34Germany 844 10.24 3.77Japan 1,230 9.65 4.06UK 577 9.55 3.57 63 8%

NOx reduction in chemicalindustry

France 415 6.59 4.05Malaysia 156 6.49 2.39China 5,327 4.07 1.42Thailand 234 3 65 1 33

•57 projects with LoA

63.8%

Thailand 234 3.65 1.33India 1,166 1.07 0.37 World 28,193 4.37 1.72Source: US DoE and BP

•GHG reduction of 4.2 MtCO2e/year

IEA’s proposed global electricity productionp p g y p

Global Electricity Production by Type in 2050

Hydrogen1.3%Solar

11 2% Nuclear

Wind12 2%

11.2%Tidal1.0%

Oil0.3%

Nuclear23.3%

Coal0.0%

Bi +CCSCoal +CCS

12 9%

12.2%

Geothermal2.5%

Gas4.1%

Biomass/waste3.8%

Biomass+CCS2.0%

12.9%

Gas+CCSHydro12.4% Gas+CCS

12.9%12.4%

Source: IEA

CHP/DG has grown significantly in Thailand over the past 17 yearsC / G s g ow s g c y d ove e p s 7 ye s

•SPP/VSPP: regulations issued in Power Purchase from SPP/VSPP1993•SPP/VSPP: cogeneration or generation of power from RE•Most SPP/VSPP are CHP/DG

14,000

16,000

10.0%

12.0%

GWh% of system generation

Most SPP/VSPP are CHP/DG•SPP: sale of excess power to grid 10-90 MW•VSPP: sale of excess power to

8 000

10,000

12,000

Wh

6 0%

8.0%

% grid < 10 MW•Direct sale without using utility’s wires allowed•10% of national power supply is4,000

6,000

8,000

GW

4.0%

6.0% %

10% of national power supply is from SPP. But if direct sale is included, power generation from SPP/VSPP accounts for 16% of 0

2,000

0.0%

2.0%

total electricity generation1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Price response by renewable energy is remarkablep y gy

SPP/ VSPP ั 2008Number

Gen. Capacity

Power Sale NumberGen.

CapacityPower Sale Number

Gen. Capacity

Power Sale

Projects Submitted Projects Approved Projects in Operation

สถานะ SPP/ VSPP ธันวาคม 2008 Capacity Capacity Capacity(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)

Cogeneration/Fossil fuels 56 5,445 3,416 52 5,401 3,403 28 2,741 1,676

N ti l 1 324 10 101 8 347 580 3 704 2 578 145 1 269 621Non-conventional 1,324 10,101 8,347 580 3,704 2,578 145 1,269 621

Biomass 376 4,335 2,822 181 2,426 1,422 67 1,213 589

Wastes 53 240 212 21 119 101 4 6 3

Biogas 109 222 189 78 121 101 24 26 19

Solar 659 3,030 2,864 279 932 856 45 2 2

Wind 115 2,247 2,239 10 78 78 1 0 0

Hydro 9 7 7 8 6 6 2 0 0

Others 3 21 14 3 21 14 2 21 8

SPP- mixed fossil+non-conventional 4 476 233 4 476 233 4 476 233SPP mixed fossil+non conventional 4 476 233 4 476 233 4 476 233

Total non-conventional 1,328 10,577 8,580 584 4,180 2,811 149 1,745 854

Grand total 1,384 16,021 11,996 636 9,581 6,214 177 4,486 2,530

Biomass has become a valuable commodityBiomass has become a valuable commodity

• Potential for power generation: 4 400 MW

9 MW rice husk power plantgeneration: 4,400 MW

• Target: 3,700 MW in 2022• Fuels: paddy husk,

bagasse woodchips palmbagasse, woodchips, palm wastes, palm shell, palm branches,corn cob, straw, coconut fibre, black liquor, q

• SPP and VSPP projects in operation: 71 projects, generating capacity 1,689 MW l t id 822MW, power sale to grid 822 MW.

• New projects: 309 projects with generating capacity ofwith generating capacity of > 3,000 MW

Woodchips becoming popular

Enormous wind potential in Northeast?

• Potential: 1,600 MW?? T t 800 MW b 2022• Target: 800 MW by 2022

• Current generating capacity:3.5 MW (EGAT, MoE)VSPP i ti 1 j t• VSPP in operation: 1 project with generating capacity of 0.08 MW

• New projects: 114 projects• New projects: 114 projects with total generating capacity of 2,246 MW

Sites for New Wind FarmsPetchabunN k h i Ch i hNakornratchasima ChaiyaphumKalasin/Roi-ET Mukdaharn

RE Target is far too low: 8,000 MW RE capacity is possibleRE Target is far too low: 8,000 MW RE capacity is possible

Proposed Power Purchase from SPP/VSPP RE

8,000

9,000

Original target: 5,604 MW in 2021

5 000

6,000

7,000OthersHydroWind

3 000

4,000

5,000

MW Solar

BiogasWastesBiomass

1 000

2,000

3,000

0

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

EfE’s proposed power purchase from SPP/VSPPEfE s proposed power purchase from SPP/VSPP

Power Purchase from SPP/VSPP Cogen and RE

60,000

70,000SPP RE+VSPP (Proposed Addition)SPP Cogen (Proposed Addition)SPP RE+VSPP (PDP Mar 2009)

Proposed addition40,000

50,000SPP Cogen (PDP Mar 2009)SPP+VSPP

Existing30,000

GW

h

PDP Mar 200910,000

20,000

0

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Nuclear is staging a come back

Nuclear power plants under construction (end-August 2008)90

Nuclear share in electricity generation 2006

Country Number of reactors Capacity (MW)Argentina 1 692Bulgaria 2 1,906

437 nuclear power plants in operation60

70

80

ar p

ower

g ,China 6 5,220Chinese Taipei 2 2,600Finland 1 1,600France 1 1 600

in operation in 30 countries

40

50

60

y fro

m n

ucle

France 1 1,600India 6 2,910Iran 1 915Japan 2 2,16620

30

of e

lect

ricity

Korea 3 2,880Pakistan 1 300Russia 7 4,724Ukraine 2 1 900

0

10

E A M N E A A A Y Y AN D IN SA UK IA A A A O ZIL NDIA N A

%

Ukraine 2 1,900United States 1 1,165Total 36 30,578Source : IAEA

FRANC ELITHU AN IA

SLOVAK REPBELG IU MSWEDENUKRA INE

BULGAR IAARMENIASLOVEN IA

KOREA , REP . OF

HU NGARY

SW ITZER LAN DGERMANY

CZECH R EPJAPAN

F INLANDSPA IN

TA IW AN , CH IN AUSA URU SS IACANAD ARO MANIA

ARGENTINAMEXICO

SOUTH AFRICA

NETHERLAN DSBRAZIL

PAK ISTANINDIACH IN A

Without nuclear GHG emission from power sector will increasep

Thailand's Carbon Dioxide Emission from Electricity Generation

•GHG emission will increase drastically under current PDP 140

150

140

150

PDP 2007 (Mar 2009 adjustment)

(March 2009) which slows down nuclear power program•Incorporate higher renewable energy production120

130

120

130PDP 2007 (Increase RE and power import)

renewable energy production and power import, GHG emission declines slightly but the trend is still upwards.100

110

M. T

ons

100

110

M.T

ons

80

90

80

90

70

80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202170

80

Nuclear is inevitable if we are to combat global warmingg g

Thailand's Carbon Dioxide Emission from Electricity Generation150 150

Lower CO2 emission is due to•Much higher RE and CHP•Speed up of nuclear

140

150

140

150

PDP 2007 (Mar 2009 adjustment)

PDP 2007 (Increase RE,power import) •Speed up of nuclear program•Higher hydropower development in neighbouring

120

130

ns

120

130

ns

PDP 2007 (Increase RE,powerimport,nuclear)

countries

Unclear national policy100

110

M. T

on

100

110

M.T

on

Unclear national policy on global warming has caused wavering support for RE and nuclear80

90

80

90

for RE and nuclear

702007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

70

Nuclear has long lead time–preparation must be speeded upg p p p p

• Training, manpower Plan Begin constructionTraining, manpower• Feasibility study (wastes

disposal, decommissioning, fuel

Plan2007

L l d l t

Begin construction 2014

gsupply etc.)

• Location• Safety and other standards

Legal and regulatory framework established

2011

Power generation 2020

y• Establishment of legal and

regulatory framework • International treaties• Establishment of

supporting industries• Public acceptance

Community Development Fund Community Development Fund --y py pmoving too slowlymoving too slowly

Payment into Fund when in operationy p

Fuel Type Baht/kWh

Natural Gas 0.01

Fuel Oil and Diesel 0.015

Coal and Lignite 0.02

Renewable Energies- Wind and Solar

Biomass MSW Waste-

0 01

•Number of funds to be established: 102

- Biomass, MSW, Waste - Hydro

0.010.02

•Number of funds already established: 71

•Number of funds being set up: 4

•Money already transferred: 1,656 million baht

•Estimate funds revenue in 2009: 1,822 m.baht

But this is not enough To alleviate global warming we needBut this is not enough..To alleviate global warming we need.. 

Gi G i

• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)i l il il h l

Change in

GovernmentNew Technologies General Public

Create awareness, • Non Conventional Oil, Oil Shale, 

Natural Gas Hydrate• 2nd generation biofuels • Solar (PV, CSP, Heating), Wind, 

gbehaviours in all aspects of our daily lives

,concensus and drive changes which will involveother RE

• Hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

• Mass Transit

lives which will involve unpopular measures

• Energy efficiency technologies