“For the first time, 5G is going to be enterprise-led.” · Introduction to “5G – The Enterprise Opportunity” - By Helen Ojha, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate

Collinear Networks Inc. 2901 Tasman Drive, Suite 211, Santa Clara CA 95054 USA

+1 888 532 0949 [email protected] collinear.com

Introduction to “5G – The Enterprise Opportunity” - By Helen Ojha, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development

“For the first time, 5G is going to be enterprise-led.”

So argues Chetan Sharma in his white paper, “5G – The Enterprise Opportunity.” Sharma extends his illuminating insights of Mobile 4th Wave and Connected Intelligence into the enterprise space. He provides a compelling analysis of what he calls the 5G “Additional” data demand arising from enterprise-centric use cases. For this coming 5G Connected Intelligence Era, Sharma lays out a new landscape for computing and broadband connectivity – one that is driven by what he points to as the next shift in computing cycles towards a distributed one, enabled by technology innovations and the new 5G capabilities.

In this whitepaper you will see through Chetan Sharma’s wide-angle view this new landscape tying together:

New Enterprise-driven 5G “Additional” data demands;

The 5G network capabilities enabling enterprises’ to compete in new ways using communications and networking agility;

How new computing technologies combine with 5G capabilities to transform enterprise verticals from agriculture to health care.

Collinear is pioneering next generation, ultra-high capacity, over-the-air connectivity solutions for global communication networks by combining Free Space Optics and E-Band RF technology with intelligent traffic management. But the Collinear technology brings more than increased capacity and distance to the 5G era. It allows a whole new level of controllability and security as well. At the foundation of Collinear’s breakthrough technology is programmable control over traffic flows, with multi-tenancy and multi-administration to follow. It is designed to optimize multiple uses of a single ultra-high capacity hybrid link, assuring maximum use of available link capacity, in effect virtualizing transport. By combining multi-component real-time performance measurements with model-based link analytics, Collinear’s links will be optimized to suit the behaviors of the traffic types and concurrent local environmental conditions they will experience in the Enterprise-led 5G era.

5G–TheEnterpriseOpportunity

2017

2018

5G – THE ENTERPRISE OPPORTUNITY 2018

1 |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

Table of Contents Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 2 5G “Additional” Data Demand Analysis ............................................................................................. 6 Figure 4. Data generated by 2020 ....................................................................................................... 7 5G Capabilities that will enable Enterprises ....................................................................................... 8

Network Slicing ................................................................................................................................. 9 Industrial IoT ................................................................................................................................... 11 High Reliability and Efficiency ...................................................................................................... 12 New Business Models ..................................................................................................................... 12

Edge Computing Will Transform the Enterprise ............................................................................. 13 Enterprise Use Cases .......................................................................................................................... 15

Agriculture ...................................................................................................................................... 15 SMB Access ..................................................................................................................................... 17 Manufacturing ................................................................................................................................ 18 Media and Entertainment ..............................................................................................................20 Autonomous Driving ...................................................................................................................... 22 Healthcare ....................................................................................................................................... 24

5G as a Competitive Force for Nations ............................................................................................. 26 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 28 About Chetan Sharma Consulting ..................................................................................................... 30 About the Author ................................................................................................................................ 30 Disclaimer Chetan Sharma Consulting is one of the most trusted advisory firms in the global mobile industry. This research document presents some in-depth analysis about the future of the mobile industry. However, the author or the company assumes no liability whatsoever. Any use or reprint of the material discussed in the paper without prior permission is strictly prohibited.


2 |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

Introduction The fact that the top five companies in the world in 2017 were tech companies that form the foundation of platforms and applications for the global ecosystem shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who is paying attention. The confluence of broadband network, mushrooming of applications and services on iOS and Android, and near universal applicability of Connected Intelligence has shaped the global economy over the last few years. The coming changes will be even more pronounced. Powered by very fast and reliable broadband networks, sensors that inform the enterprise on every turn, and intelligent software that learns and adapts as it digests the data around it will change the face of the enterprise world as we know it. Incumbents have been slow to recognize the breathtaking pace that results from the introduction of new capabilities. Upstarts unencumbered by the weight of legacy and old-thinking have set the pace of change. They look at each problem in the supply-chain, each kink in the user experience as their calling to disrupt the industry segment and move the collective understanding forward. 5G is at our doorsteps and it is going to shape the various industries in more profound ways than we can imagine. The signs of disruption are everywhere. Adoption of smartphones led to Uber, Lyft, Ola, and Didi Kuaidi, which not only reshaped the taxi and the riding industry to its core but also accelerated the collective wisdom about autonomous vehicles. Availability of LTE networks played a central role in the


3 Introduction |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

exponential growth of the mobile video advertising industry. Airbnb went after hospitality, Amazon after commerce, Tencent after communications, and Paytm changed the payments landscape. Many of the billion-dollar digital enterprises didn’t even exist a decade ago. We think that 5G is going to bring about similar and probably more profound changes. How will enterprises take advantage of these new capabilities in not only their respective industries but more fundamentally, how will they define their place in it? Will 5G enable new business models for the enterprise? Will 5G lead to new revenue streams? To be a successful participant in the Connected Intelligence ecosystem, one must look at the opportunities across the stack including access. Some will require partnership, others ownership. In some instances, the only way to reach a broader market will be through collaboration while for other cases, going it alone will help secure early market lead. The new paradigm will require a mindset shift as well as an update of the strategic ethos. 5G will enable enterprises to rethink the nature of their perimeters with their customers, suppliers, and sources of value, opening them to more digital exchanges while exerting new controls through a wider range of data-driven means. It will touch the basic infrastructure elements that tie the pieces of corporate data and knowledge together – compute, storage, connectivity, intelligence, security, and more. 5G will afford opportunities for enterprises to build the entire stack on their own or outsource and partner depending on what drives economic and supply-chain efficiencies. This will open up the market for new suppliers, architectures, and residency models. The digitization of industries is happening in front of our eyes. The confluence of sensors, AI, and 5G will shape the industries of the future. Robotics will redefine manufacturing, autonomous vehicles will make current transportation means obsolete, sensors inside our bodies will change the role of doctors, hospitals and clinical services, retail will go virtual, and education will teleport us into the essence of the subject. But who will put the pieces together? Who will take the lead? What standardization will be needed before the market can scale? Who will be the winners and the losers? We will answer these pertinent questions in due course. One thing is certain that the players who experiment early and try to incorporate the learnings into their roadmaps and strategic outlook stand to benefit the most. Those who wait for others to figure it out are bound to the annals of historic missteps. This paper will delve into some of the 5G capabilities that will enable us to look at the set of current and emerging issues and opportunities differently. It will further look into use cases in some of the industries. It is important to understand the capabilities that will become available over the next decade but also strategize how they are going to shape various industries.



Enterprise5GDemand Connectivity is the heartbeat of an enterprise. Without having the pulse of the supply-chain, having a measure of consumer feedback and response, being able to connect to suppliers at a moment’s notice and share updates and designs is critical to the global flow of goods and services. For the first four generations, while enterprises have used the network as an ingredient part of their operations, networks were really designed for consumers in mind first, enterprises came second. For the first time, 5G is going to be enterprise-led. Lots of the use-cases being discussed, and specifications being discussed have enterprises at the center of network evolution. From operator’s point of view, enterprises are expected to be the leading source of revenues. In an operator survey conducted by GSMA, almost 90% of the operators saw enterprise as the dominant source of revenue compared to 54% from the consumers. The primary reason for this shift is two-fold – advances in different fields: horizontal – AI, Blockchain, IoT, Edge Computing, and vertical – automotive, entertainment, manufacturing, healthcare, agriculture, etc. provides a perfect intersection of requirements that 5G can fulfill. Secondly, most of the mature markets are saturated, meaning, new subscribers are hard to get so the focus has turned to enterprises to generate new sources of revenue.

Figure 1. Operators are looking towards enterprises for new source of revenues1 The enterprise mobile data demand is expected to outstrip consumer demand for the first time.2 The new data demand is enterprise-led. While consumer data consumption will grow manifold over the next decade, the new use cases such as connected factory, smart city, connected car, etc. – the data consumption requirements are several 1 Source: GSMA 2 Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2017



magnitudes higher than the consumer segment. All major industry verticals are expected to benefit from new capabilities (Figure 2). Advancements in AI and Quantum Computing will necessitate the need to process the data at the edge and in the cloud at lightening speeds.

Figure 2. 5G-enabled industry digitalization revenues for ICT players, 20263 The very nature of computing is changing. Powerful sensors at the edge are going to generate enormous amounts of data that will need to be assessed in a distributed manner in concert with the centralized cloud. This necessitates a different mode of computing architecture where 5G will play a significant role in providing broadband connectivity on demand in a highly-secure fashion. 3 Source: The 5G Business Potential, Ericsson, 2017


6 5G “Additional” Data Demand Analysis |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

5G“Additional”DataDemandAnalysis The LTE network is going to support the ongoing demand based on existing data consumption models. But, what will be the “additional” data demand that will necessitate the deployment of 5G. We built the data demand model for the US. Such models can be built for other markets as well. US is going to be the dominant 5G market given all the early activity in the market so for our initial analysis, we looked at the US market. We expect the new use cases will increase the average GB/mo consumption by a factor of 100 by 2022 of which almost 80% could be driven by the enterprise demand (Figure 3).

Figure 3. US Enterprise 5G Data Demand4 Fixed wireless has been generally discussed in context of consumers in urban environments but there is demand for providing Gigabit broadband connectivity to enterprises esp. SMBs. Just like autonomous and connected vehicles for the consumer segment, there is even going to be more demand for the industrial connected vehicles. Similarly, smart cities and smart factories are likely to generate significant amounts of traffic (Figure 4). As Figure 5 indicates, we are likely to see the 5G impact across industry verticals with the domains that need high throughput and low latency being amongst the first ones to embrace the opportunity for example, Manufacturing, Transportation, Automotive, and Healthcare.

4 Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2018


7 Figure 4. Data generated by 2020 |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

Figure 4. Data generated by 20205

Figure 5. Impact of 5G on Enterprise Verticals6

5 Source: Intel, Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2017 6 Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2018

Transportation and Travel

IT and Technology

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8 5G Capabilities that will enable Enterprises |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

5GCapabilitiesthatwillenableEnterprisesThe 3GPP specifications for 5G (IMT-2020) are geared towards enterprises with focus beyond just peak data rates and lower latency. Energy efficiency, traffic capacity, connection density, and security are key aspects (Figure 6) of the standard that will be attractive to the enterprises. There are several new capabilities that will be quite attractive to the enterprises in different verticals:

• Network Slicing • Industrial IoT – Density and Efficiency • Network Virtualization • Security • New Business Models

Figure 6. Different use cases based on performance requirements7 Some of these are already being deployed in preparation of 5G. As figure 7 shows, the increase in performance on some of these variables is quite phenomenal for example: the area traffic capacity increases from 0.1 Mbit/s/m2 to 10, the network efficiency gains are 100x, the connection density in devices/km2 increases 10 times, the average data rates go up 10 times, the latency drops 10-fold, and more. Any of these in isolation would be a great improvement, but, collectively, these features are bound to become a platform for tremendous innovation, new economic growth, and enterprise rethink of their supply-chain and business processes. 7 Source: 5G Services and Use Cases, 5G Americas, 2017



Figure 7. 3GPP 5G Features8 Just like broadband LTE enabled new revenue streams for the market and led to the birth of companies like Uber, Alibaba, and more, 5G is likely to continue the tradition of rejuvenation of the marketplace.

NetworkSlicing Perhaps one of the most exciting new features being introduced with 5G is network slicing (Figure 8). Network slicing enables an elastic network that shapes on demand. The same network can be sliced to perform different functions across verticals, across enterprises, and across application types. Each slice can have a different capability, requirements, and KPIs, and network slicing will enable end-to-end virtual networks for each of the use cases in real-time as if the network was designed for that specific use case. The flexibility gained from such an architecture reduces cost while assuring consistent treatment of various application traffic types on an end-to-end basis, even as the end-points and intermediate processing continue to be adjusted to accommodate needed efficiencies in content serving, analytics, and local intentions.

8 Source: ITU-R Recommendations M.2083



Figure 8. Network Slicing9 Each slice will have different characteristics like QoS, security, availability, latency, data rate, and density. Furthermore, the ARPU on each slice could vary quite dramatically. Network slicing enables the operators and enterprises to optimize the network slice based on a number of factors that helps optimize not only the performance but also the business. This added capability will help in more agility, innovation, and enterprise demand. The ability to cost-optimize will provide a profitable way of delivering services on-demand. Some potential use cases are:

• Augmented Reality

• Massive IoT • Manufacturing Facility • MRI-Image Transfers • Fast-moving Train • Media download in a moving car

9 Source: ITU



• Enterprise video session

As you can see from the examples above, the diversity of requirements needs a new type of a network to deliver the customized slice of the network to each request. Network slicing will enable different business models and pricing schemes as well.

IndustrialIoT The basic notion of a controlled sensor to do tasks is an old one, in fact, it has been around for more than 150 years. As the sensor ecosystem evolved from Telemetry to M2M to IoT, we are seeing much more than just dumb sensors at the edge, we are seeing a totally new way to manage whole industries. Sensors at the edge become the eyes and ears of the enterprise and provides continuous feedback to operations and the intelligence hub to help manage the end-to-end systems. As Figure 9 below shows, application areas in each of the vertical categories have an enormous market. Each of the industries is a multi-trillion opportunity. Thus far, we didn’t have the capability to deploy massive IoT farms that can operate with very lower power and have diverse throughput requirements from few kbps to several Gbps.

Figure 9. Massive IoT Application Areas10 While the market is nascent and fragmented, we expect that markets will coalesce around standardized platforms and components to help take advantage of the scale. 10 Source: Cellular Networks for Massive IoT, Ericsson, 2016



HighReliabilityandEfficiency From the start, the engineers working on the 3GPP IMT-2020 specification focused on high-reliability and high-efficiency use cases. There are a number of use cases such as emergency management, drone fleet management, self-driving cars, telemedicine, and others where high-reliability and efficiency is table stakes. 5G networks are going to be built with that in mind. This will not only enable new use cases but also new business models for the enterprises.

NewBusinessModels 5G will invariably require new business models for deployment, services, collaboration, and innovation.11 The most exciting piece of the puzzle is how players will use new business models to reinvent themselves and new comers will depend on them to disrupt the incumbents. We are likely to see new operating models from the operators, some of whom might offer the network as infrastructure-as-a-service. We might see decoupling of the spectrum from the network and various players including enterprises operate their own private and public networks. Car manufacturers might look for operating their own network for the fleet of vehicles. Consumer electronics companies might seek kindle like model for their products. Historically, enterprises with big balance sheets have used their economic clout to keep competition at bay by making big acquisitions or investments. As we get deeper into the Connected Intelligence Era, we are likely to see the competitive advantage coming from communications and networking agility, how fast and efficiently connection to disparate pieces of physical and electronic information and resources can be achieved, how quickly can they use the resultant data and intelligence to feedback into the lifecycle of an enterprise to get ahead of the trends. The flexibility provided by the 5G network architecture doesn’t necessitate a nationwide macro network but rather a use-case driven focused deployment based on market needs. The disaggregation of the hardware and the software layers mean that the enterprises can operate their own network in-concert or independently from the service providers or third-parties. This enables enterprises to think about their application and services stack in a totally different way, something they were just not in a position of thinking about in previous generations.

11 Realizing the 5G Promise, Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2018


13 Edge Computing Will Transform the Enterprise |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

EdgeComputingWillTransformtheEnterpriseComputing goes in cycles of centralization and distributed. Mainframe that kick started the computing revolution always focused on a central powerful computer with dumb terminals to crunch the numbers and provide raw power. This was true for most computing environments until the early nineties. The PC at every desk changed the model to a distributed one wherein computing stations and later portable PCs became powerful enough to do computing tasks a distributed fashion. This lasted for almost two decades.

Figure 10. Computing Cycles12 With mobile and cloud, the cycle reverted to a centralized architecture wherein cloud formed the core nervous system for applications and services and the mobile devices at the edge focused more on the interface than computing. While we haven’t fully realized the benefits of the third computing cycle completely, we are for sure entering the shift again to a more distributed, edge-centric computing model (Figure 10). The drivers are many but the most critical one is that the power of a mainframe can now be found in tiny chipsets that can be embedded at the edge. Mobile broadband capability further enables fast transmission of data, but it is really the computing power at the edge that can analyze the data locally either before sending it further up the stack for processing or while sending to processing centers for longer cycle and larger scale analytics. Furthermore, data storage and AI capability at the edge, informed by the localized derivatives of central analytics further creates a powerful set of solutions unlike anything else we have seen in the past. The ability to process TBs of data and pump out actionable intelligence in a matter of ms is likely to define the next computing cycle. All of a sudden, end-nodes become computing hubs and can help unleash new capabilities in every industry. For example, each average flight generates roughly 1-2 TBs of data. Once the plane lands, it is either transmitted (which both takes a lot of time and is quite expensive) or is physically carried to the computing facility for further processing. By regulation, the entire data-set has to be transmitted for processing. But if we move the processing capability to the 12 Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2018

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14 Edge Computing Will Transform the Enterprise |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

edge wherein in a matter of seconds, the airlines and regulators could know if there are any anomalies in the data and require further action rather than wait hours for the data processing to be complete. It can shorten the maintenance windows and save costs. Taking the notion of edge computing further, data can also be analyzed as it is being gathered in real-time while the airplane is in the air, so the analysis is all complete by the time the plane lands. Edge computing clearly helps create new operating and business models for the existing supply-chain. Edge computing will play a significant role in smart-city initiatives worldwide as computing and communications get woven into the fabric of the city. At CES 2018, the biggest industry tradeshow, the CEO of Intel unveiled a 49-qubit quantum chip. Intel’s roadmap suggests researchers could achieve 1,000 qubit systems within 5-7 years.13 Having this computing power at the edge will transform both computing and the network evolution. While the evolution of edge computing is going to lead to very interesting applications and new models for distributed data analysis, we are likely to live in a hybrid world where cloud and edge work in concert to balance the work-load for a long-time. As such, enterprises should plan to leverage both modes of deployment and take advantage of available tools to build their infrastructure stack.

13 https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/computing/hardware/intels-49qubit-chip-aims-for-quantum-supremacy


15 Enterprise Use Cases |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

EnterpriseUseCases Internet was transformational to the enterprise. Broadband connections upended many industries. New industry segments were created. Several Fortune 500 companies got destroyed as they failed to see and adapt to the changing tides. We believe that 5G represents a significant infrastructure element of the evolving Connected Intelligence Era. As we discuss in the use cases below, each of the major industry verticals will be able to take advantage of the new network capabilities discussed in this paper. The execution will depend on very specific demands of the enterprise or the industrial sector.

Agriculture

Computing empowers precision-agriculture. Increasingly, the world is competing for depleting resources. Smart agriculture can conserve water by 20% and uses far less fertilizers.14 The use of sensors, resulting data streams, and smart algorithms can weed through the waste and provide precise recommendations to farmers. Automation can further streamline the farming operations and remove the burden on the agriculture community who would rather focus on the business of agriculture. Lately, drones have become an integral part of many farming communities. Being able to take digital snapshot of acres of land to help in determining the areas and the amount of fertilizers, water or intervention is needed.

14 20% less water used for almond farming in California. http://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2016-06-09/factory-fresh

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However, the drones collect several TBs data and the connectivity from farms is often substandard, so it can take hours before the data is transmitted for further analysis. By the time recommendations come back, it is several hours, or days and the information is already outdated. As such, infrastructure is needed that is cheap and can provide high-capacity bursty transmission of data.

Figure 11. Impact of precise weather data15 Similarly, drones or highly-focused weather stations can provide precise weather conditions which can vary from the local and regional forecast enough to instigate different strategies that can make difference in agricultural yield by 5-10% (Figure 11). The requirement of hyper-fast data transfer and AI-enabled edge-computing play a significant role in implementing such solutions. Using technology to transform a 23,000-year-old profession is an exciting proposition. Digital tools working in concert with human experience can go a long way to solve the food scarcity and cost equation for many emerging markets. It can lead to many new ways to do precision agriculture, agriculture insurance, farm planning and distribution. 15 Source: Why So Many Weather Stations? https://www.farmersedge.ca/many-weather-stations/



SMBAccess

Small-medium sized businesses are the lifeblood of any economy. Whether it is a 5-person office in the suburbs or a portable insurance business running out of a car, connectivity provides the nervous system to make the enterprise hum. The requirements for enterprise bandwidth continues to go up. Unlike larger enterprise, they don’t have the time or the budget to wait for long-term connectivity solutions. Their needs are here and now. Fixed-wireless access along with mobility can provide them the needed flexibility and agility to run their respective business. In emerging markets, the cost of laying the fiber will be even more pronounced though the requirements for bandwidth are similar to developed markets. To supply broadband on demand, service providers will have to rely on new tools such as Free Space Optics (FSO) to provide access that is localized and not necessarily mandates a city-wide upgrade.



Manufacturing

Manufacturing is an exciting area for 5G. New areas such as cloud robotics that take advantage of cloud, AI, Robotics, and broadband networks are going to shape both enterprise and consumer electronics. There is a big debate in our society around the role of automation and robotics in manufacturing and in turn the impact that will have on jobs. However, for countries that lack the cheaper labor pool, 5G and Robotics can usher a new age of manufacturing enabling new capabilities, providing scale in factories with very sophisticated processes that harmonize the collaboration between humans and machines (Figure 12).

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Figure 12. Cloud-Robot Ecosystem of Interoperable AI Engines and Robots16 5G provides low latency, high reliability, high throughput, and scaled up connection density to help reconfigure the factory floor, supply-chain production, and business processes to create new uses cases for manufacturers. Automation helps in lowering the cost of manufacturing while releasing the enterprise to focus on design, products, and competitiveness. The added stream of data provides rich analytics and new business models to take hold.

16 Source: Mobile Networks as the Key to Smart Robots in Our Midst, Dr. Bill Huang, Karl Rauscher, Dr. Robert Zhang, Connected Intelligence: Man, Machine, and Platforms, Mobile Future Forward Publishing, 2017



MediaandEntertainment

Media and Entertainment is a natural category for 5G. Video is already 60-70% of the total mobile traffic and is likely to rise to over 90% by the time 5G comes to the market in full swing. Many consumers rely on mobile devices as their primary communications and entertainment platform. In the US, cord-cutting is accelerating at a feverish pace. In 2017, a total of 22.2 million adults cut their subscriptions of cable, satellite or telco TV service which is up 33% from 2016.17 With “unlimited” offers from the operators that include many video offerings and subscriptions, consumers are leaning towards mobile for their entertainment needs. As VR/AR shape up new entertainment and media consumer experiences, the industry will be dependent on upgraded networks to provide a seamless environment for content consumption.

17 Source: http://variety.com/2017/biz/news/cord-cutting-2017-estimates-cancel-cable-satellite-tv-1202556594/

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Figure 13. Correlation of time spent to data traffic to ad revenues (US)18 Media and Entertainment have a direct impact on the adjacent industry of advertising. Thanks to mobile, video advertising revenue skyrocketed in the last 5-6 years (Figure 13). The better the networks got, the more data was consumed which had a direct impact on the upward trajectory of the advertising revenue. This phenomenon is almost universal and led to the gargantuan revenue streams for Google and Facebook. We expect 5G to provide a major boost to advertising and even introduce new business models to the market. The edge computing capability can provide technical models for enabling very precise advertising and commerce opportunities for the industry. 18 Source: The Mobile Network as a Platform: Planning for the 5G World, Erik Ekudden, Nimish Radia, Chetan Sharma, 2017



AutonomousDriving

Autonomous driving has catapulted as a showcase of an amalgamation of technologies in a matter of a few years. A few years ago, a driverless car seemed to be a thing of fiction only suited for Hollywood movies. However, almost every single auto manufacturer is developing some form of autonomous car and many features are already out in various models. Driverless cars are attractive for many reasons, but two important ones are – reduction in fatalities and accidents on the road and secondly, more efficient transportation leading to more time for individuals and higher productivity. As the industry works towards a self-driving car future, it is becoming clear that the future of transportation will be quite reliant on the reliability, robustness, and performance of the network it is connected too. While LIDAR and cameras can provide the necessary input to a moving vehicle of its immediate surroundings in the most favorable conditions, to build an error-proof system, it must rely on the network and other vehicles to communicate thus building a labyrinth of mycelium-like smart city networks that react in an instant and can often foreshadow events to come. Autonomous driving will require higher throughput availability, extremely low latency, very high resiliency, bullet-proof security and recovery mechanisms, and a connected intelligent network that can anticipate problems and needs of the commuters 100% of the times. While the autonomous driving use case requirements are amongst the toughest, capabilities are being built into the 5G specifications, industry players are collaborating and ironing out the anticipated requirements sets that are likely to emerge, and regulators are keeping a close eye on the developments to ensure that they formulate policies and rules that stay a step ahead of the technology curve. Networks will play a key role in the success and eventual implementation of autonomous driving. Even before we get to a complete driverless car or fleet, the

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connected car feature set will rely on the hybrid network of satellite and terrestrial components. The requirements will vary from Gbps of throughput to sub-5ms latency to almost 100% reliability, etc. In dense-urban areas where the urban jungle presents a particularly difficult RF environment for sustained throughput, the deployment of front-end radios and back-end backhaul will require new ways to deploy technology. The new network topologies will distribute decomposed functional elements of the core and access layer stacks variously, through network function virtualization, and software defined orchestration and control, as needed by applications and their activated network slices. The use case also presents some new collaborative paradigms such as data sharing, hybrid networks, industry joint ventures, and regulatory frameworks, etc. that requires very tight collaboration between industry participants including the regulator. For example, temporary virtual objects and their immediate operating contexts representing specific mobile vehicles will be generated in edge compute facilities assembled from such varied sources as transport data sources, automobile model data, individual driving records, hyper-local weather now-casts, and car-sourced driver behaviors. To realize the full potential of autonomous driving and to accelerate the roadmap, the broadband network will play a central role in these ad-hoc virtual object assemblies and the communication links between them and the physical objects they represent and to which they provide controls.



Healthcare

One of the areas that is well-suited to ride on the mobile and 5G wave is healthcare. Mobility collapses time and distance and is perfect for the various healthcare scenarios. In fact, we envision that the future hospitals will be nothing but very sophisticated data-centers that constantly monitor and measure consumer’s vitals and detect any anomalies hours and days before they would have otherwise been detected. The execution of this vision requires availability of a highly reliable network that can operate on demand and provide the necessary security and privacy safeguards for data. From simple tasks of relaying the amount of physical activity to activating medicine inside the body remotely, the network will play a key role in making consumers comfortable with the advances in medicine and new techniques to provide care. Already, models such as housecall wherein doctors can checkin with the patient via video call are becoming the norm. This drops the costs and enhances the efficiency of the medical system. Regulators are also becoming cognizant of the torrent of innovations coming that are reshaping the traditional therapies that have been used for years. Sensors can now monitor blood streams for cancerous cells, watch can monitor continuous blood pressure, glucose level, ECG, EKG, and much more (Figure 14). These sensors are providing a steady stream of previously unavailable data that is going to help researchers in studying the patterns in much more detail, leading to new discoveries, diagnoses, and outcomes.

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Figure 14. 5G’s role in healthcare will more pronounced19 Areas as such as telemedicine and remote surgeries can really shine with 5G. From localized high-bandwidth applications and services to WAN network capabilities, 5G can provide the perfect platform for innovative ideas to take hold. Emerging markets don’t have to stay hostage to the lack of resources or experts to provide better medical treatment for the citizens. These markets can also enable the loved ones to get more involved with the process. With the human lifespan increasing every year, taking care of aging population is a real concern for governments and citizens alike. 5G network capabilities combined with precision sensors and enormous computing capabilities provides a platform that helps keep track of the loved one on a highly granular basis to a point that problems can be detected much before they happen and thus not only provide better care for the elder citizens of our society but also lower the skyrocketing costs of the health care system. 19 Source: 5G Service Roadmap 2022, 5G Forum, 2016


26 5G as a Competitive Force for Nations |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

5GasaCompetitiveForceforNationsAs we indicated earlier in the paper, nations are looking at 5G as a basic building block of their future economy. In its policy document, the Australian government stated:

The Government considers that 5G is more than an incremental change for mobile communications. Instead, it provides the underlying architecture that will enable the next wave of productivity and innovation across different sectors of the Australian economy. Efficient rollout of 5G and uptake of the services it supports has the potential to produce far-reaching economic and social benefits and support growth of Australia’s digital economy. This will be supported by the rollout of the National Broadband Network (NBN) allowing greater capabilities for the seamless delivery of services across high speed mobile, fixed line and fixed wireless networks.20

Governments realize that their role goes beyond just making the spectrum available for the operators and manage the competitive environments, they must invest their energies and resources into providing a platform for expedient deployment of 5G so that nations’ industrial sector can take advantage of the new platform. Regulators understand their critical role in shaping the national competitiveness and future building block for high-paying jobs. In his speech about 5G, former FCC Chairman, Tom Wheeler noted:

the FCC will have the opportunity to take an historic step to open up yet another frontier that promises to propel our nation – and the world – forward. Once again, we are looking to the sky to unlock new discoveries and unleash American ingenuity. We are the pioneers of a new spectrum frontier. Working together, we can write the next chapter in the mobile revolution that has already transformed our lives and society. Working together, we can unleash new waves of innovation and discovery that we are yet to imagine.21

While the top two nations, US and China, are racing ahead with their 5G strategies, other markets in both developed and emerging markets are not sitting idle. Given the diverse capabilities of 5G, players across the spectrum are going to take advantage to embrace 5G and chart their paths to define the future of their respective industries. India, which has played catch-up for most part in the wireless industry so far, is eager to lead from the front. In a policy document it noted:

20 5G – enabling the future economy, Australian Government, 2017 21 https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-339920A1.pdf


27 5G as a Competitive Force for Nations |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

For India, 5G provides an opportunity for industry to reach out to global markets, and consumers to gain with the economies of scale.22

Clearly, the private industry will continue to drive innovation and deployment of 5G. However, we are likely to see different models to bring the next generation to the market in different scenarios. For example, 5G can be deployed locally to manufacturing facilities (Oil & Gas Rigs, Amazon distribution center, Boeing Plant, Remote hospitals, Banking facilities, SMBs, etc.) either by the operator or the enterprise themselves. In some instances, where capital is hard to come by or there isn’t a strong business case for a private industry investment cycle, governments should step in to provide assistance in building out pieces of the network and have the private industry build the ecosystem on top. To achieve the above, players have to be quite flexible in their mindset as well as adept at using the new tools that are coming into the market like SDN, NFV, Free Space Optics, Edge Computing, etc. The main criterion for success will be the overall cost and time to deployment. It will vary for each scenario and the context will dictate the final strategy. By being aware of the capabilities available in the marketplace, participants can come up with an economical and swift deployment strategy. For example, in emerging markets, the cost and pace of fiber deployment can hold off any progress one might make on the front-end radio network. In such cases, it is more cost- and time-efficient to deploy fixed wireless and free space optics solutions to stand up backhaul in a short amount of time. Governments around the world understand that connectivity is the linchpin for innovation and creation of next-generation jobs and economy prospects. To compete effectively in a global economy means that one has to at least stay at par with the industrial changes if not lead from the front. This makes 5G a unique network evolution cycle. The importance of the access platform to the national economy is greater than ever and will be a driving force for managing competitiveness. In some of the emerging markets, where access to capital might be challenging or the business case might not support an immediate 5G deployment due to lack of scale or an early ROI, governments are likely to get involved in funding the buildout in partnership with the private sector. They might further consider designing access regulations, so more participants can be involved in funding the network and building services for the larger good of their citizenry. 22 http://www.dot.gov.in/5g-india-2020


28 Conclusions |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

Conclusions 5G is expected to be a catalyst of growth across multiple dimensions. Several recent studies have estimated trillions of dollars of global economic output over the next couple of decades.23 It will generate millions of new jobs and transform industries and create new ones. 5G is expected to be the enterprise cycle. 4G brought broadband to the forefront of economic growth and innovation. 5G is not only expected to accelerate that evolution but the new capabilities are likely to restructure industries and help us envision tasks and domains in a new light. Governments and value-chain players are rushing to understand the implications and are trying to get a head-start to gain competitive advantage. The 4G cycle has thus far created 95 new billion+ dollar businesses.24 It is hard to imagine life without Uber, Facebook Video, Spotify, Tencent, or PayTm – they are all a product of the cycle that brought a majority of the world citizens into the broadband domain. Given that the feature set for 5G is even more diverse than what the last cycle brought to the market, we expect more disruption in the coming days led by the enterprises. The requirements for security, availability, connection density, resiliency, and reliability were designed with enterprise in mind. Many developed markets have reached consumer saturation. There are no new subscribers to be had. As a result, the search for new revenue streams must focus on enterprises. Operators who can understand the requirements of the various verticals, partner with the right players, hire the dedicated talent, and create a roadmap for services will succeed in staying ahead of the curve. Many who find the transition hard are likely to succumb to the shifting winds of change. 5G will indeed be a transformational cycle not only for the core wireless industry but to every vertical and every economy. The participants who are building the next generation information architecture and laying the foundations for the growth of the next decade will have to be flexible and conversant with new ways to deploy networks, assessing business and financial models so there is sustained development, and not have preconceived notions based on the previous cycles. By getting an early start in experimenting with the available tools and understanding the potential of 5G will help you set on the path of success. 23 https://www.qualcomm.com/invention/5g/economy 24 Source: 4th Wave Index Analysis by Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2017


29 Conclusions |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

Acknowledgements This paper was sponsored by Collinear Networks (www.collinear.com).


30 About Chetan Sharma Consulting |Chetan Sharma Consulting © Copyright 2018, All Rights Reserved. Use without permission is strictly prohibited.

AboutChetanSharmaConsulting Chetan Sharma Consulting is one of the most respected management consulting and strategic advisory firms in the mobile industry. We are focused on evolving trends, emerging challenges and opportunities, new business models and technology advances that will take our mobile communications industry to the next level. Our expertise is in developing innovation-driven product and IP strategy. Our clients range from small startups with disruptive ideas to multinational conglomerates looking for an edge. We help major brands formulate winning, profitable, and sustainable strategies. Please visit us at www.chetansharma.com.

AbouttheAuthor Chetan Sharma is CEO of Chetan Sharma Consulting and is one of the leading strategists in the mobile industry. Executives from wireless companies around the world seek his accurate predictions, independent insights, and actionable recommendations. He has served as an advisor to senior executive management of several Fortune 100 companies in the wireless space and is probably the only industry strategist who has advised each of the top 6 global mobile data operators. Chetan serves on the advisory boards of Ericsson, Telefonica, Kymeta, NextNav, Zeotap, Opanga Networks, Mast and a number of other startups. Some of his clients include NTT DoCoMo, Disney, KTF, China Mobile, Toyota, Comcast, Motorola, FedEx, Sony, Samsung, Alcatel Lucent, KDDI, Virgin Mobile, Sprint Nextel, Skype, AT&T Wireless, Reuters, Juniper, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Mozilla, SAP, Merrill Lynch, American Express, and Hewlett-Packard. Chetan is the author or co-author of a dozen best-selling books on wireless including Mobile Advertising: Supercharge your brand in the exploding wireless market and Wireless Broadband: Conflict and Convergence. He is also the editor of the Mobile Future Forward Book Series. His books have been adopted in several corporate training programs and university courses at NYU, Stanford, and Tokyo University. His research work is widely quoted in the industry. Chetan is interviewed frequently by leading international media publications such as Time magazine, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Japan Media Review, Mobile Communications International, and TechCrunch, and has appeared on NPR, WBBN, and CNBC as a wireless data technology expert. He is also the chief curator of the mobile thought leadership executive forums – Mobile Future Forward and Mobile Breakfast Series. Chetan is an advisor to CEOs and CTOs of some of the leading wireless technology companies on product strategy and Intellectual Property (IP) development and serves on the advisory boards of several companies. He is also a sought-after IP strategist and expert witness in the wireless industry and has worked on and testified in some of the most landmark cases in the industry such as Qualcomm vs. Broadcom, Samsung vs. Ericsson, Sprint vs. Verizon, Openwave vs. 724 Solutions, and Upaid vs. Satyam. Chetan is a senior member of IEEE, IEEE Communications Society, and IEEE Computers Society. He has Master of Science degree in Electrical Engineering from Kansas State University and Bachelor of Science degree from the Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee.

Documents

“For the first time, 5G is going to be enterprise-led.” · Introduction to “5G – The Enterprise Opportunity” - By Helen Ojha, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate