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“Cycles On Parade”Synchrony of Turning Points
Stock Market Cycles, August 2020
Lars von ThienenMember of the [email protected]://cycles.org
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
Preface“The Most Significant Evidence“ Edward Dewey
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The Synchrony of Cycles“Maybe we were just playing games with numbers. […] Then we began to look more closely at all the cycles with the same length, and what we discovered convinced not only me but a large body of previously doubting scientists that cycles are a reality. The ultimate clue finally came to light! We discovered that all cycles of the same length tend to turn at the same time! They act in synchrony. […] We have a synchrony of turning points.“
Edward R. Dewey (1971):“CYCLES: The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Events”,Chapter “The Ultimate Clue”, Page 189-190
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
Content
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Section 1: Cycles 101 – Introduction
Section 2: Review: The 170er Cycle in HY1 2020
Section 3:Outlook: Daily Stock Market Cycles, August 2020
Section 1: Cycles 101 - Introduction
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
Basic Cycle & Cycle Detection ExampleTemperature in Hamburg
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Dataset: Daily Temperature Hamburg, Germany (F)29. Mar. 2019
Cycle Detection Results:Cycle Length: 362 d (pink)Next high: ~Aug 2019Next low: ~Jan 2020
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
Cycle Spectrum AnalysisTemperature in Hamburg
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Dataset: Daily Temperature Hamburg, Germany (F)29. Mar. 2019
Cycle Length: 362 dNext high: ~Aug 2019Next low: ~Jan 2020
Cycle Spectrum reveals:
a) Currently active dominant cycles
b) Length of these cycles
c) Current status of its phase
d) Significance of the cycle
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
Components of Stock Market dataTrend, Noise & Different Cycles
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Trend
Cycles
Noise
Output
data series based on trend, cycles & noise
Input
45d
80d
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
Cycle Analysis removes noise & trend to output cycle spectrum
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Output
Cycle Spectrum of data series
Input
Unknown data series
45 days cycle
80 days cycle
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
Cycle Spectrum allows toplot cycle projections
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Cycle Analyzer View
Section 2: Review: The 170er Cycle in HY1 2020
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
The Cycle Scanner
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S&P 500 Cycle Analysis Spectrum as of 14 Feb. 2020
178 days cycle
50- & 55-days cycle
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
The current 170er parade in the S&Pin Feb. 2020
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S&P 500 with dominant cycle length 178, Situation 14 Feb. 2020
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
The ~170-day market cycle marched in a parade with sentiment indicators
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VIX Dominant Cycles 178/104 Projection, Date: 14 Feb 2020
projected sentiment highturning point
~27. March 2020
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
A Review: The ~170 days paradecalled the top and low in Q1 2020
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VIX Dominant Cycles 178/104 projection …. and outcome (light blue line)
Outcome:
market registered lowon 23. March
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
The detected sub-cycles of 50d/55dhelped to identify a bottom
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After the fact…S&P 500 Dominant Cycles (50, 55 days)** projection, 27 February
** The 50- and 55-days cycle showed up as peaks in the spectrum on 14th Feb.
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
Analysis & charts on the 170er cyclepublished publicly in Feb. 2020
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“The Importance of Cycles in Predicting Future Turning Points”published in: “Traders World, The Official Magazine of Technical Analysis”, Issue #76 - Feb/Mar/Apr
Amazon Stock, Dominant Cycle Length: 169 & 70 bars, 4. Feb.
VIX Sentiment, Dominant Cycle Length: 169 & 70 bars, 4. Feb.
“By combining different data sets and the analysis of the dominant cycle, we can detect a cyclical synchronicity. […] Synchronous cycles […] could indicate a trend reversal for the market under investigation”
15. Feb. 2020, Lars von Thienen, Traders World Magazine #76
SP500, Dominant Cycle Length: 173 bars, 13. Feb.
Section 3: Outlook: Daily Stock Market Cycles,
August 2020
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
Real Cycle SpectrumS&P500 – 14. Aug. 2020
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A current parade ?Stock Market Cycle Analysis, FSC Cycle Scanner, August 2020
”You too are in the parade.” (Dewey)
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
170 Days Cycle - Equal Weight S&P500
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RSP - Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, Date: 7 August 2020
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© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
168 days Cycle – NASDAQ 100
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© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
167 Days Cycle – Apple (AAPL)
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© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
177 Days US Tech. Sentiment CycleNASDAQ-100 Volatility Index (VXN)
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© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
184 days China sentiment cycle
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CBOE China ETF Volatility Index
Date: 14. Aug. 2020, Data Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXFXICLS
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
S&P 500 Index170 days + Top 5 Cycles
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© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
The longer parade:Update on the 5.91y cycle (~310 weeks)
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DAX Futures, Continuous Contract, Front Month, Date: 14.08.2020,
Data Souce: Quandl Futures
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen 27
Will the U.S. Dollar Index join the parade?Top 3 Cycles Composite
U.S. Dollar Index, Data: DX-Y.NYB – Yahoo Finance, 14.Aug. 2020
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFTop 4 Active Cycles, 17. Aug.
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© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
Gold – Top 3 Active Cycles, 14. Aug. 2020
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© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
About the Author
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Lars von ThienenFSC Board Member
As founder and CEO of Noggle AG, Lars von Thienen invented the independent desktop search and knowledge management app. He holds a degree in business engineering. As a member of the Aequitas Group board of directors, he is responsible for a group of companies with more than 400 internationally active business and IT consultants. Appointed by the Minister of Justice, von Thienen practices as a commercial judge. He develops algorithms and software for cycle recognition and has published two books on cycles which have been ranked in the Top100 books for Financial Engineering on Amazon (“Decoding The Hidden Market Rhythm”). Von Thienen is based in Hamburg, Germany.
Contact: [email protected]
© 2020 FSC, Lars von Thienen
FSC
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