“Be Careful What You Wish For”Wyoming Energy Summit: Powering Future Generations

Richard A. Horner

Director Special Projects and Emerging technology

May 8, 2019

Presentation Overview‘Be Careful What You Wish For!”

• Current Market reality for Energy Supply

• Energy Outlook for USA

• Implications of Growth in Electric vehicles• Mismatches in Supply & Demand • Energy Poverty Impacts

• Lateral Thinking Needed - what ever your posture on the energy future

• The complex future energy picture & the need to re-prioritize technology needs.

• Opportunities for Wyoming

Outlook is for Clean Energy to Prevail…. Energy systems – transmission, distribution and supply in general will increasingly be stressed

Energy Outlook is for flat demand and incremental move towards clean energy is assumed by many agencies…

Electric Vehicle Forecast Uptake

The Emerging Wildcard that is Starting to Disrupt Energy Supply Thinking

Note – Incentives are accelerating Uptake of EV’s

• The U.S. electric grid has continually evolved to accommodate new demands throughout the last century.

• But if the nation’s vehicles were to rapidly become electric, the grid would need to change faster and adjust to demand response needs too.• Reality is this is not happening sufficiently

• Depending on local driving habits, population and the grid infrastructure that’s already in place, EVs will have different impacts in different regions.• Noticeably where electric vehicles are taking off, the grid is already stressed

with supply reliability concerns

Worth Recognizing

Implications on Technology Needs

• High Volume Energy Storage to Address Changes in peak demand for electricity and consumer behavior change.• Permits existing excess supply capacity to match demand forecasts

• Growth is electricity generation and supply must be met• Uptake of this growth in electricity demand solely by renewable is

unlikely ( both economically and technically) • Integration of renewable energy into existing infrastructure systems

needs to be overcome• Reliance on fossil energy (Clean) likely to grow in some regions as there

is not sun and wind everywhere.• Good for the existing fleet

• Motivation to Integrate transmission and distribution of electricity across US. has never been higher.

• Increasing demand for electricity at night – when most of these vehicles

will be on charge, after running a full day.

• Typically increase a house’s power consumption by 50% or more.

• Solar and Wind either ineffective or inefficient at night: the mismatch

between supply and demand of electricity will exacerbate.

• Accelerated demand for electric vehicles will require reliable and high

volume base-load electricity generation sources that can operate at night.

Base-load electricity 24/7, will increasingly become paramount.

• Unless drastic changes and improvements to electricity transmission and

distribution are forthcoming (e.g. integration of renewables and the

building of this capacity fast enough), there will be an increasing need to

sustain the fossil fuel power generation fleet and even building new

capacity.

Implications on Electricity Generation & Supply

• If virtually all passenger cars in Texas were electrified today, the state would need approximately 110 more terawatt-hours of electricity per year; some 30 percent increase over current consumption in Texas… 5 fossil powered plant equivalent.

• California and Texas are lightening rods as thy consume more energy than any other state.

Market Implications (Examples)

• California would need to generate an additional 120 terawatt-hours of electricity per year…. 5 to 6 fossil powered plant equivalent

(A typical fossil-energy based power plant is say 600MW Generation Capacity)

To meet that demand, California and Texas would need to build new power plants or buy more electricity from neighboring states than they already do.

How Might Wyoming Take Advantage

• Focus on Clean Electricity – renewable and clean coal

• Invest in high volume energy storage solutions

• Ensure integration of electricity supply into the wider US. infrastructure schemes.

Finally….

The need to generate clean electricity will not go away.

Electric Vehicles could destroy of fix the US electricity Grid Forever !• Matching existing supply with demand would be a good start

Q&A

For More Information:

Richard A. HornerDirector, Special Projects & Emerging Technology

School of Energy ResourcesUniversity of Wyoming

Laramie, WYrhorner@uwyo.eduPh: (307) 766-4301

Cell: (307) 760-6642