ANZ Commodity Daily 754 301112.pdf

7/30/2019 ANZ Commodity Daily 754 301112.pdf

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ANZ RESEARCH

COMMODITY DAILY

Contacts: Mark Pervan +613 9273 3716 | [email protected] Nick Trevethan +65 6681 6714 | [email protected] Rampono +613 9273 3415 | [email protected]

MARKET HI GHLI GHTS COMMODI TY WRAP N ov ember 30 , 2012

Oi l f i rm ed on hopes US budg et ta lk s w i l l be success fu l Gold recovered on t echn ica ls , bu t he lped by w eak USD B ase me t a l s r os e in l i ne w i th o t he r c omm od i t i es The r ma l c oa l up , dow ns ide r i s k fo r i r on o r e & c ok ing

KEY THEMES

y Ov er n igh t themes A risk-on vibe faded during the USsession after US senior Democrat spokesperson, Chris van

Hollen, said US politicians were not close to a deal.

Republican US House Speaker John Boehner echoed similar

sentiment, stating there had been no substantive progress

on budget talks, but remains hopeful about talks. Despite

the negative comments, equity and commodity markets

maintained gains, while the US dollar declined. Most of the

overnight data prints were close to market expectations (US

jobless claims, the second read of US Q3 GDP and German

unemployment rate) although US pending home sales

surprised on the upside, further indicating that the US

housing sector has continued to recover. US Q3 GDP was

revised up by 0.7ppts to +2.7% q/q annualised, which also

supported sentiment for commodities. Given the uncertainty

surrounding the US fiscal cliff markets could start today on a

negative footing, but all eyes will be on tomorrows Chinas

manufacturing PMI, with expectations for stronger numbers

(mkt: 50.8, last: 50.2).

OVERNI GHT RANKED PRI CE MOVES ( % )

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.2)

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.4

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

2.1

2.3

3.7

(2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Iron o re

Baltic F reight

USD (DXY)

Nickel

Gold

Platinum

S&P 500

Silver

WTI Oil

Coal (NEWC)

Lead

Copper

Tin

Zinc

Aluminium

Note: Coal (NEWC) refers to front month futures

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy

y B enc hmar k c r ude o i l p r i c es ga ined in line with globalequity markets and supported by weakness in the US dollar.

The risk-on tone in the market on hopes a US budget deal

could be reached by Christmas boosted oil prices. However,

other lawmakers have said any solution remains uncertain,

which could prompt a negative price reaction today. US-

centric oil prices gained the most, climbing to the highest

level since 20th November, while Brent rose above the

USD110/bbl level. Escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle

East continued to be supportive. The International AtomicEnergy Agency (IAEA) said Iran continued to expand its

uranium enrichment capacity and called for urgent dialogue to

resolve the conflict. Protests in Egypt in opposition to

President Mursis decree are also putting a floor under prices.

y Go ld r os e fo r the f i r s t t ime i n fou r day s . Part of therecovery was technical-based, after gold prices fell off a cliff

yesterday. Although, improved macro sentiment regarding the

US fiscal cliff also contributed to the price rise, as did a

weaker US dollar. Silver prices climbed to a seven-week high

and have increased 20% through November more than

doubling gold gains during the same period. The strength in

silver is surprising, particularly despite subdued global

industrial and jewellery demand, accounting for about 75% of

total silver end-use. Instead, silver direction has being more

closely linked to gold prices and growth in exchange traded

fund and other investment demand. Silver has the ability to

rise a bit further, but strong resistance around USD35/oz

could see prices fall, particularly if concerns over US budget

talks reignite next week.

y B ase m e ta l s f i r med , tracking gains in the bellwether copperand other growth-related commodities. Sentiment improved

on hopes that a US budget deal could be negotiated by the

December deadline and after positive US housing data.

Copper prices hit a six-week high, although aluminium was

the best performer, up 3.7% and above the critical

USD2,000/t level. News that China would expand refinery

copper production capacity next year and speculation that

Chinese infrastructure spending could increase supported

copper prices further. However, global copper mine production

is also expected to rise, which should generate a surplus in

2013. Aluminium prices were boosted by gains in oil markets.

Talks of a squeeze in front-end aluminium were also

supportive, with the premium of Dec over Jan contract rising

to USD16.00/t, up from USD4.50/t a week ago.

y N ew c the r ma l c oa l fu tu r es s t r eng thened to the highestlevel since early August. North Asian tenders continue to show

strong interest, with prices being awarded at slightly higher

levels, but China is still well-supplied. There were reports of amajor derailment in the Upper Hunter Valley in Australia,

which will likely impact export volumes from Newcastle. Iron

ore prices fell, while coking coal markets remained steady just

under USD160/t. Falling steel prices are making traders

nervous, even if data suggests demand in China is improving.


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COMMODITY DATA

Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

LME BASE METALS (USD/t) LME BASE METALS (kt)

Aluminium 2065 3.7 7.2 7.7 9.6 Aluminium 5,190 0.2 0.6 2.3 6.6

Copper 7885 1.8 2.4 0.8 3.7 Copper 249 (0.3) (0.8) 4.0 8.4

Nickel 16949 0.1 2.7 4.3 6.6 Nickel 136 (0.0) 1.8 4.7 14.7

Zinc 2013 2.3 5.8 8.9 10.9 Zinc 1,198 (0.2) (0.2) 2.4 26.0

Lead 2223 1.7 2.5 4.2 13.1 Lead 362 0.2 0.2 12.3 16.8

Tin 21886 2.1 6.9 7.4 12.9 Tin 12 0.2 4.0 1.1 3.3

PRECI OUS METALS (USD/oz) Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

Gold 1,725 0.3 (0.2) 0.7 2.0

Gold (A$/oz) 1,654 0.8 (0.7) 0.3 0.9 S&P 500 1,416 0.4 1.8 (0.8) 0.7

Silver 34 1.4 2.7 6.1 7.9 VIX Volatility Index 15 (2.9) (1.6) (9.8) (13.8)

Platinum 1,611 0.4 1.9 2.5 4.6 CRB Index 297 0.0 (0.3) (0.1) (4.2)

Palladium 684 1.3 4.3 11.5 8.6 LME Metals Index 3,425 2.0 3.6 3.2 6.2

ENERGY (USD/bbl) Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

WTI Oil* 87.82 1.5 0.5 0.8 (9.0)

Brent Oil* 110.55 0.9 0.0 2.2 (3.5) Baltic Freight Rate 1,097 (0.6) 1.2 9.7 56.0

Sing Gasoil 0.5% 124 (0.1) (1.0) (0.8) (6.4) Baltic Capesize 2,241 (1.5) (3.3) (4.8) 91.2

Sing Fuel Oil 180cst(US$/t) 604 (1.9) (2.7) (2.8) (12.4) Baltic Panamax 994 (1.5) 0.3 29.1 35.2

OTHER (USD/t) Baltic Handysize 446 0.9 5.2 4.7 (2.8)

China HR Coil (RmB/t) 3,879 (0.2) (0.3) 3.2 13.9 Close 1 Day 1 W k 1 Mt h 3 Mt h

Richards Bay Coal API4 91 0.3 2.5 9.8 3.0

Newcastle Coal* 93.3 1.6 3.7 11.8 2.5 DXY - USD Index 80.2 (0.2) (0.6) 0.2 (1.3)

Australia Coking Coal** 161 1.9 10.5 (2.2) AUD/USD - Aussie 1.043 (0.5) 0.5 0.3 1.0

Iron Ore Spot 116.9 (0.8) (1.5) (2.8) 30.8 NZD/USD - Kiwi 0.822 (0.2) 0.8 (0.7) 2.3

Com m od i t ies I n ven t or ies% Chang e % Ch ange

% Ch a n g eCurrenc ies

% Ch a n g eK ey In d i ces

% Ch a n g eFre ight

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Nov Jan M ar M ay Jul Sep

NEWCASTLE COALUSD/t

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800


GOLDUSD/oz

70

80

90

100

110

No v Jan M ar M ay Jul Sep

W T I OI LUSD/bbl

0.94

0.97

1.00

1.03

1.06

1.09


A UDUSD

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000


NI CKELUSD/t

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000


COPPERUSD/t

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300


A L UM I N I U MUSD/t

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200


Z I N CUSD/t

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.033.0

35.0

37.0


SI LVERUSD/oz

Notes: *Front-month futures **Weekly prices

Sources: Bloomberg, McCloskey, ANZ Commodity Strategy


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ANZ FORECASTS

ANZ For ecast Table 1

COMMODI TY Un i t Sep -1 2 Dec- 12 Mar - 1 3 Jun - 13 Sep -1 3 Dec-1 3 Mar - 14 Jun -1 4 Sep - 14 Dec- 14 Mar - 15

BASE METALS

Aluminium US$/lb 0.87 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.04 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.03 1.01 0.99

Copper US$/lb 3.50 3.76 3.90 4.06 4.14 4.20 4.20 4.10 3.98 3.85 3.70

Nickel US$/lb 7.41 8.38 8.55 8.80 9.00 9.25 9.35 9.25 9.15 9.05 9.00

Zinc US$/lb 0.86 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.13

Lead US$/lb 0.90 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.13

Tin US$/lb 8.76 9.97 10.00 10.05 10.20 10.40 10.35 10.10 9.75 9.35 9.10

PRECI OUS METALS

Gold US$/oz 1,653 1,776 1,800 1,835 1,860 1,880 1,880 1,860 1,835 1,810 1,775

Platinum US$/oz 1,500 1,681 1,730 1,790 1,828 1,848 1,855 1,845 1,835 1,820 1,795

Palladium US$/oz 613 670 720 765 810 828 823 817 808 793 779

Silver US$/oz 29.9 34.3 34.6 35.3 35.8 36.5 36.8 35.8 34.5 33.5 32.5

ENERGY

WTI NYMEX US$/bbl 92.2 95.6 102.5 108.5 111.5 112.0 111.0 109.5 108.5 107.0 104.5

Dated Brent US$/bbl 109.9 114.6 118.0 120.0 119.0 117.5 116.0 114.5 113.0 111.0 108.0

Uranium US$/lb 49.3 51.3 56.0 57.0 59.0 61.5 64.0 66.5 69.0 72.5 77.5

BULKS

Iron ore Spot (CIF China, fines) US$/t 111.9 107.1 112.5 117.5 122.5 126.5 129.0 130.0 129.0 126.5 125.0

Iron ore Contract (FOB Aust, fines) US$/t 117.9 96.3 104.0 108.2 113.2 116.6 119.4 120.9 119.5 117.3 115.1

Coking coal - Premium hard US$/t 225.0 170.0 175.0 185.0 195.0 200.0 200.0 195.0 195.0 190.0 190.0

Coking coal - Hard US$/t 174.0 160.0 165.0 170.0 180.0 185.0 180.0 175.0 175.0 170.0 170.0

Coking coal - Semi-soft US$/t 147.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 145.0 150.0 160.0 155.0 155.0 150.0 150.0

Newc Thermal Coal (Spot) US$/t 86.5 87.5 92.5 98.5 103.0 105.0 106.5 108.5 110.5 112.0 113.5

Newc Thermal Coal (JPY Contract) US$/t 115.0 115.0 115.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0

OTHER METALS

Alumina US$/t 240 265 267 273 285 291 291 288 284 277 273

Molybdenum US$/lb 11.9 12.9 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.5 16.3 16.0 16.0

Cobalt US$/lb 13.4 14.8 15.8 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.3 16.8 16.5 16.3

EXCHAN GE RATES

AUD/USD US$ 1.040 1.026 1.037 1.062 1.070 1.070 1.070 1.063 1.068 1.049 1.057

NZD/USD US$ 0.815 0.810 0.817 0.842 0.850 0.850 0.850 0.847 0.849 0.839 0.843

EUR/USD US$ 1.258 1.262 1.263 1.283 1.297 1.307 1.303 1.317 1.313 1.310 1.317

USD/JPY 78.163 76.653 76.000 76.000 76.000 76.000 76.000 72.667 74.222 73.333 72.667

USD/CAD C$ 0.991 1.015 1.043 1.063 1.083 1.097 1.093 1.100 1.099 1.100 1.100

USD/CNY Yuan 6.280 6.200 6.150 6.100 6.200 6.167 6.183 6.150 6.156 6.133 6.133

Note 1: Average prices Note 2: Thermal coal prices are for JPY year starting April 1 Note 3: Historical data are actuals

Sources: Bloomberg, ANZ Commodity Strategy, ANZ FX Strategy


4/5

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ANZ Commodity Daily 754 301112.pdf