Anylogic. Учебное Пособие По Системной Динамике

1992-2004 XJ Technologies Company Ltd. www.xjtek.com

Copyright 1992-2004 XJ Technologies. .

XJ Technologies Company Ltd [email protected] http://www.xjtek.com/products/anylogic

1992-2004 XJ Technologies http://www.xjtek.com

ii

.......................................................................................................... 1

1. ..........................................2

1.1 .............................................................................2

1.2 ..........................................................................................................3

1.3 ....................................................................................5

1.4 ....................................................................................................7

1.5 .......................................8

1.6 ..............................................................................................9

1.7 .............................12

1.8 ...................................13

1.9 .............................................................................15

1.10 - ........15

1.11 ........................................................................17

1.12 .........................................................................................................19

1.13 ..........................................................20

1.14 .................................21

1.14.1 ................................................................................................................21

1.14.2 ........................................................23

1.14.3 .........................................24

1.15 ..........................................25

1.15.1 .............................................................................26

1.15.2 ..........................................................27

1.15.3 ................................................................................33

2. ........ 37


iii

2.1 ...............................................37

2.1.1 ..................................................37

2.1.2 .....................................................................................................40

2.2 .............................................42

2.2.1 ......................................................................43

2.2.2 .................45

2.3 ................48

2.3.1 ...............................................................................48

2.3.2 .................................................................51

2.4 ..................................................54

2.4.1 ..........................................................................................54

2.4.2 ...................................................................................56

2.4.3 ......................................................................................................58

3. .................................................................................................. 61


iv

AnyLogic V . - , , , , , . AnyLogic , .

AnyLogic. AnyLogic. , . . , AnyLogic.

- , . ; , .


1

1.

. . , , , . . , . - .

1.1

.

1. . .

2. , .

3. . Product Life Cycle .

4. OK.

. AnyLogic, , .


2

, .

1.2

, , . , , . , , , .

( ) , ; . , . , .


3

; .

, . , .

- . , , . - .

AnyLogic . , . ain .


4

1.3

, . AnyLogic .

1. .

2. , . , .

3. , . . , .

4. . , Potential_Customers .


5

5. . , .

1. . Customers.


6

. . .

1.4

, . AnyLogic . .

Adoption_Rate

1. .

2. , .

3. . , Adoption_Rate .

4. .

.


7

1.5

, . , . , , :

+ - -

, , , , , , .

1. , Potential_Customers.

2. , : -Adoption_Rate. , . d(Potential_Customers)/dt, ,

, Ctrl+space. , . , , , . , .


8

1. . Adoption_Rate.

1.6

. AnyLogic .

,

1. , ain.


9

2. , . , .

3. . Total_Population.

4. . 100000 . .

5. . , , .

.


10

, , . .

,

1. Advertising_Effectiveness.

2. 0.011.

, , . .

Contact_Rate

1. . Contact_Rate.

2. , 100 . 100.


11

, , .

Adoption_Fraction

1. Adoption_Fraction.

2. 0.015.

1.7

.

1. , Customers.

2. . , 0 .

1. , Potential_Customers.


12

2. Total_Population ( ).

.

1.8

, - , .

Adoption_From_Advertising

1. .

2. , .

3. , Adoption_From_Advertising.

4. .

5. : Advertising_Effectiveness*Potential_Customers


13

Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth

1. Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth Contact_Rate*Adoption_Fraction*Potential_Customers*Customers/ Total_Population


14

1.9

. .

1. , Adoption_Rate.

2. , : Adoption_From_Advertising+Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth.

.

1.10 -

- , . , - . , A B, , A B.


15

-

1. . , - .

, : .

, . , .

, . , , .

.

1. , ain ain.


16

2. . .

1.11

. , . , .

. , Simulation, . , .

( , , ), , ,


17

, , .

, . , , , . 8 .

8

1. , Simulation.

2. , . 8. , 8 .


18

, . , Automatic, AnyLogic .

RK4

1. , RK4 . .

1.12

. - , , , .


19

, .

, , . , , . AnyLogic. , AnyLogic . , , , , ..

1.13

AnyLogic. .

1. .

2. . . .

,


20

, .

: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 1 - Creating the model.alp.

1.14

, .

1.14.1

Customers Potential_Customers

1. , .

2. . .

3. , . . .

4. Customers , root.Customers , , .


21

5. root.Potential_Customers.

6. OK.

, . ,

Potential_Customers Customers . S- .


22

1.14.2

, , .

Adoption_Rate

1. , . Adoption_Rate .

, . .


23

1.14.3

, . , .

1. , Adoption_From_Advertising Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth.

, . , , , . ; .

, . , .


24

1. . . . 1 OK. .

2. , . ,

. , (0.46, 11000).

: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 2 - Charts.alp.

1.15

,


25

. .

1.15.1

.

1. . .

1. , (0,0). , . , (600,350) ( ). .


26

1. .

2. , (25,20).

3. , . , , Product Life Cycle Model.

4. . , Arial 12.

1.15.2

.


27

(, , . .) (-, ). .

1. .

2. (230,100) , , (590,340).

. , .

Potential_Customers

1. .


28

2. , (270,120).

3. (60,40).

4. Potential_Customers .

5. . Total_Population .

6. .

7. .

Customers

1. .

2. . . 220 .

3. , , Customers , .

, .

1. .

2. , .

3. , .

4. , : 2.


29

5. , .

. . .

1. .

2. , .

3. , . , Adoption_Rate .

4. .

5. : 40000.

1. , Potential Customers, .

2. Customers .

3. Adoption Rate .

-, Adoption_From_Advertising Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth.

Adoption_From_Advertising

1. - .


30

2. (310, 240), .

3. - Adoption_From_Advertising .

4. 8 ( 8 ).

5. 1500.

Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth

1. . (460,240).

2. Adoption_From_Word_Of_Mouth.

3. 8.

4. 400000.

.

, -

1. , Potential Customers Adoption from Advertising. , .

2. , Adoption from Advertising Adoption Rate.

3. , Adoption from Word of Mouth Adoption Rate.

4. , Customers Adoption from Word of Mouth.


31

. , . .

1. , .

2. , .

3. , , . , 2.

. .

, , .


32

1. . , .

.

: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 3 - Animated stock and flow diagram.alp.

1.15.3

. , .


33

1. . : Total Population: .

2. , Total_Population. Total_Population , .

1. .

2. .

3. (180,20).

4. , Total_Population, .

5. 100 000.


34

6. 10 000 000.

1. 100 000.

2. 10 000 000.

1. ( , Shift).

2. Contact_Rate. 30 300.

3. , Contact Rate: Contact_Rate.

4. , 30 300.

1. Advertising_Effectiveness. 0 0.05.

2. , Advertising Effectiveness: Advertising_Effectiveness.

3. , 0 0.05.

, .


35

1. , .

2. .

3. , .

: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 4 - Controls.alp.

, AnyLogic. .


36

2.

, , AnyLogic, . , , .

2.1

, , . , , , , , .

2.1.1

, .

Average_Product_Life

1. . 2.


37

, , , . , , .

1. .

2. Discard_Rate.

3. : delay(Adoption_Rate, Average_Product_Life, 0)

delay() ; :

delay(, , )

Adoption_Rate Average_Product_Life. , .

1. Customers. , : Adoption_Rate Discard_Rate.


38

1. Potential_Customers. , : Adoption_Rate + Discard_Rate.

. , . .

, Adoption_Rate Discard_Rate

1. Discard_Rate , Adoption_Rate.

, . , , , 2 .

.


39

, , . , , - , , . , - .

2.1.2

, , . :


40

.

1. 330 .

2. .

3. , .

4. , 70 , 220 .

5. .

6. : 2.

7. , : .


41

.

1. , , . Discard_Rate , .

1. Discard Rate .

1. , Average_Product_Life 0.5 10.

2. , Average Product Life: Average_Product_Life.

3. , : 0.5 10.

. .

: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 5 - Replacement purchases.alp.

2.2

, , . ,


42

. , , . .

2.2.1

, , . . , . . , .

1. . :

demand.

2. , . . . , :


43

3. . /. .

4. , . .

5. . .


44

2.2.2

, , . Adoption_Fraction , .

1. . adoptFraction.

2. , real. , .


45

3. , . , time. real.

4. . , : demand((time-floor(time))*12+1)/200.0

demand. . , , , .

floor() AnyLogic. , sin, cos, exp, . . , , , .

( Func). AnyLogic, .


46

, , , .

Adoption_Fraction

1. , ain.

2. , Adoption_Fraction ,

.

Adoption_Fraction

1. : adoptFraction(t). . , t. t .

25 . , , .


47

: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 6 - Demand cycle.alp.

2.3

. , . , . , .

2.3.1

,

1. Monthly_Expenditures.

2. : 1100.


48

Advertising_Effectiveness

1. Advertising_Effectiveness.

2. Advertising_Effectiveness : Monthly_Expenditures/10000.0. , .

. , . , .

1. Total_Expenditures.

2. , . : 0.0.


49

Total_Expenditures

1. .

2. , .

3. , monthlyTimer.

4. , . , . , 1.0/12.0. 1.0/12.0 . .

5. , : Total_Expenditures+=Monthly_Expenditures; . , Total_Expenditures.


50

2.3.2

, - , , 3 . , , , .

,

1. Switch_Time.

2. : 3.0.

( ).


51

1. , , . . . :

2. . , . F2 with advertising.

3. . , . , , .

4. . without advertising. , . Monthly_Expenditures=0.0; .


52

5. with advertising without advertising. , , . , Switch_Time. Switch_Time .

, with advertising, Monthly_Expenditures. Switch_Time, .

, .


53

: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 7 - Promotion strategy.alp.

2.4

: . . , , .

2.4.1

, , 80 .

Expected_Saturation

1. : Total_Population*0.8.

, , .

Saturation_Time

1. : 1.5.


54

.

1. statechart , . , , :

2. , .

3. , .

4. . , Saturation_Time. Saturation_Time . , : Customers

. , , , , . , : Total_Expenditures=50000;. Total_Expenditures , , .

2.4.2

AnyLogic.

1. . .

2. . , .

3. . 1.6.


56

4. 0.00001. : 1500.

5. , . , Total_Expenditures , .

Monthly_Expenditures Switch_Time.

1. Switch_Time. , Switch_Time . 1.5 1.0.

2. Monthly_Expenditures. .


57

, , Total_Expenditures, .

2.4.3

. . AnyLogic 1500 Monthly_Expenditures Switch_Time. .


58

, , 4668. : Switch_Time = 0.2488; Monthly_Expenditures = 1555.96.

Switch_Time Monthly_Expenditures. Simulation , .

1. , . , . Simulation OK.

Simulation , , Saturation_Time .

, .


59

: Examples \ System Dynamics Tutorial Models \ Product Life Cycle 8 - Optimizing entry strategy.alp.


60

3.

AnyLogic. , - , . AnyLogic - , , . , AnyLogic, , .

, Examples\System and Business Dynamics. - AnyLogic.


61

-

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Anylogic. Учебное Пособие По Системной Динамике