Anticipated Sea-Level Rise Coastal Louisiana Technical Report Version 1.4

7/28/2019 Anticipated Sea-Level Rise Coastal Louisiana Technical Report Version 1.4

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>'>'1' L`kna Jmstkrmia Yca$@cvc msc'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 16

>'>'>' Jmstkrmia clmkga Yca$@cvc msc mg tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 15

>'9' Vrkbcitmkgs kh Huturc Yca$@cvc msc ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' >6

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5' ^CHC^CGICY ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 9=

AVVCGEMICY '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 1

Appcgemx A2 ^cvmcwcr Ikddcgts age cspkgscs ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 9

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Appcgemx E2 Ectam`ce Vrkiceurc hkr Mgikrpkratmgl Yca$@cvc ^msc mgtk @kumsmaga IkastaVrkbcit Vàggmgl age Ecsmlg ''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 361> cvmsmkgYca$@cvc msc Xaucs '''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''' 89


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@MYU KH UAN@CY

Uanc age @clcge Valc Gudncr

Uanc 1' Umec laulc eata hrkd GKAA IK$KVY statmkgs mg lck klmia `y stanc

arcas tjat arc rcprcscgtatmvc kh jmstkrmia Luh$wmec sca$cvc ijaglc'

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Uanc >' Jmstkrmia ratcs kh rclmkga sca$`cvc rmsc nasce kg satc `mtc atmdctry' >6

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@MYU KH HMLS^CY

Hmlurc age @clcge Valc Gudncr

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3

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8

Hmlurc 9' Ujc dap kh tjc tragscits usce ny GKAA Yjmps kh Kppkrtugmtyecpkymgl cZtcgeanc NatjyUjcrdklrapjs *ZNUs- hkr tjc @kw Ecgsmty ageHrcqucgt y cpcatce tragscits rug ny sjmps kh kppkrtugmty ugecr tjc GKAAAt agtmi Kicagklrapjmi age Dctckrk klmia @ankratkry tk dcasurc tcdpcraturcairkss tjc lkna kicag'

[=6'peh -

m `ustratc ag kvcra l`kna Y@ ratc *jUKU- jmljcr tjag tjc >6tj

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11

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ncttcr hmt kh tjc eata tjag a smdpc mgcar rclrcssmkg'

15

Hmlurc =' A ikdparmskg kh atmdctry$nasce aggua avcralc lkna dcag scacvc *naio mgc- age rcsmeua sca cvc iurvcs m ustratc ag mgircasc mg dassikdpkgcgt$ermvcg sca cvc *rce mgcs- m'c' knscrvce lkna dcag sca cvcdmgus tjcrda cxpagsmkg *nuc mgc- ikdparce tk tjcrdkstcrmi sca cvc*Iazcgavc ct a' >66:a-'

13
http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gbl_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gbl_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gbl_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_data_cmar.htmlhttp://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_data_cmar.htmlhttp://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_data_cmar.htmlhttp://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_data_cmar.htmlhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gbl_free_txj1j2_90.pdf


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@MYU KH HMLS^CY *ikgt'-


Hmlurc 16' Eata hrkd tjc GKAA @ankratkry hkr Yatc`mtc A`tmdctry aiicssce

11 Darij >611*jttp2++mnms'lre'gkaa'lkv+YAU+Yca@cvc` msc+sr+sr[sa[lkd[hrcc[txb1b>[=6'peh- m``ustratc ag Y@ ratc hkr tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik kwcr tjag tjc >'= 6'5 dd+yrLY@ trcge iaiu atce hkr tjc sadc tmdc pcrmke'

18

Hmlurc 11' A spatma ecpmitmkg kh tjc eata hrkd tjc UKVCZ+Vkscmekg age Baskgsatc`mtc atmdctcrs i cary sjkws tjat rclmkga ratcs kh Y@ iag nc vcry emhhcrcgtat nktj tjc lkna siac *a- age wmtjmg tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik *n- ikvcrmgl tjc lrcymgsct nkx-'

1' A lrapj kh dcag Y@ trcges hkr GKAA tmec laulcs mg tjc Lu h kh

Dcxmik sjkw tjat nktj Y@ age tjc varmagic arkuge tjc trcge arc lrcatcr mg tjcwcstcrg Luh kh Dcxmik tjag mg tjc cast'

1:

Hmlurc 19' @kgl$tcrd statmkgs mg tjc wcstcrg Luh kh Dcxmik mg GKAAsG\@KG gctwkro vary smlgmhmiagty mg tjc pcrmke kh rcikre'

1:

Hmlurc 15' Ujms lrapj hrkd Rcrvas *>66=- ecsirmncs jkw tjc =3# ikghmecgicmgtcrva kh tjc Y@ trcge ectcrdmgce hrkd GKAA G\@KG tmec laulcs msjmljy ecpcgecgt kg tjc alc kh tjc statmkg'

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>1

Hmlurc 18' Ujc ratc kh lkna sca$`cvc rmsc eurmgl tjc >1s Icgtury ms dkeccetk mgircasc wmtj tjc cxtcgt kh aiiccratmkg ecpcgecgt kg tjc prcemitcetcdpcraturc mgircascs asskimatce wmtj tjc MVII lkna i mdatc ijaglcsicgarmks'

>>

Hmlurc 19
http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gom_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gom_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gom_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gom_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gom_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gom_free_txj1j2_90.pdf


9/121

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@MYU KH HMLS^CY *ikgt'-


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>5

Hmlurc 1=' Ujms dap prcemits `kia sca cvc ijaglc rcatmvc tk tjc lknaavcralc hkr tjc >1st icgtury as iaiuatce hrkd tjc rcsuts kh 18 lkna imdatcijaglc dkecs ruggmgl tjc MVII A1N i mdatc sicgarmk'

>3

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>8

Hmlurc >1' GKAAs tmec laulc gctwkro mg @kumsmaga ikvcrs dutmp`clckdkrpjmi scttmgls wmtjmg tjc Ytatcs ikasta zkgc'

>:

Hmlurc >>' ^Y@ trcge mgcs hkr tjc Yanmgc Vass Gkrtj *a- age Lrage Ms c *n-GKAA tmec laulcs m ùstratc tjc smlgmhmiagic kh lck klmia stanm mty kg Y@ age tjc emhhcrcgic nctwccg tjc dkrc stanc Ijcgmcr V ag *Yanmgc- age tjc cssstan`c Ectami Vàmg *Lrage Msc-'

96

Hmlurc >9' A dap kh sunsmecgic ecvckpce ny Nrmtsij mg >66< m`ùstratcs tjcspatma varmanm`mty mg prcemitce sunsmecgic ratcs mg skutjcrg @kumsmaga'

9>

Hmlurc >5' Dap kh prkbcitce sunsmecgic raglcs hkr skutj @kumsmaga lcgcratceny tjc Yunsmecgic Aevmskry Vagc hkr tjc @kumsmaga IV A Dastcr Vàg >61>Speatc'

99

Hmlurc E1' Dap kh prkbcitce sunsmecgic raglcs hkr skutj @kumsmaga lcgcratceny tjc Yunsmecgic Aevmskry Vagc hkr tjc @kumsmaga IV A Dastcr Vàg >61>Speatc hk kwmgl a dcctmgl kg 15 Kitkncr >616'

A$86

Hmlurc E>' Yirccg iapturc kh tjc sprcaesjcct tjat @AICY jas erahtce hkriaiu atmgl Y@ iurvcs ikgsmstcgt wmtj tjc hkur$stcp prkicss rcikddcgece mg

tjc Ucijgmia cpkrt'

A$81


10/121

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@MYU KH AI^KG]DY

Airkgyd Ecsirmptmkg Hmrst chcrcgic kgValc )

IVÂ Ikasta Vrktcitmkg age cstkratmkg Autjkrmty *kh @kumsmaga- 1

I^DY Ikastwmec chcrcgic Dkgmtkrmgl Yystcd 91

IXM Ikasta Xu`gcranm mty Mgecx 93

CI Cglmgccrmgl Imriuàr 5

LMA Làima Mskstatmi Aebustdcgt >

LKKY L`kna Kicag Knscrvatmkg Yystcd 3

L@KYY L`kna Yca @cvc Knscrvmgl Yystcd 5

LÂIC Lravmty cikvcry age I`mdatc Cxpcrmdcgt

JCU Janmtat Cvauatmkg Ucad 95

DY@ Dcag Yca @cvc >

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GÎ Gatmkga ^cscarij Ikugim >1

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^Y@ ^càtmvc Yca$@cvc msc >

Y@ Yca$@cvc msc 1

SYAIC SY Ardy Ikrps kh Cglmgccrs 5

ZNU Cxtcgeanc NatjyUjcrdklrapj 3


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AIOK\@CELCDCGUY

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tk tjago tjc hk kwmgl mgemvmeuas wjk prkvmece tjcmr tmdc age cxpcrtmsc eurmgl ikgsutatmkgstjrkuljkut tjc prcparatmkg kh tjms rcpkrt2 Er' Bkjg Eay @kumsmaga Ytatc Sgmvcrsmty *@YS-? Er'Eugiag Hmtzlcrae Nkstkg Sgmvcrsmty? Er' Vatrmio Jcsp @YS? Er' Daro Ou`p Sgmvcrsmty khGcw Kr cags? Er' Agey Gydag @YS AlIcgtcr? Er' Ukrnbrg Urgqvmst Uu`agc Sgmvcrsmty? ageEr' Ijrms Rcrvas GKAA'


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13/121

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rcvmcw tjc statc kh tjc iurrcgt simcgic age mecgtmhy ocy prmgimpcs age rcikddcgeatmkgs mgectcrdmgmgl age mgikrpkratmgl Y@ mgtk ikasta rcstkratmkg stratclmcs dkecmgl chhkrts ageprkbcit ecsmlg'

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Eceuitmvcy suddarmzc tjc statc kh tjc simcgic kg tjc pattcrgs kh mgircasc mg tjc surhaickh tjc lkna kicag rclmkga Luh kh Dcxmik age kia ikasta watcrs mg krecr tkrcikddcge tjc ratc*s- kh agtmimpatce Y@ dkst apprkprmatc hkr mgikrpkratmgl mgtk prkbcitecsmlg paggmgl age agaysms? age

Ecsirmnc jkw tjat rcikddcgece ratc*s- kh kia sca$cvc rmsc sjkue nc ikdnmgce wmtjtjc prcscgt ugecrstagemgl kh tjc jmljy varmanc spatma pattcrgs mg ikasta agehkrdsunsmecgic age wct age vcrtmia aiirctmkg tk prcemit rcatmvc Y@ at spcimhmi pkmgts mg tjc@kumsmaga ikasta zkgc'

Mt sjkue nc gktce tjat kg y rccvagt rcscarij pun msjce prmkr tk Aulust >611 wcrc mgiuece mgtjms vcrsmkg kh tjc rcpkrt atjkulj aiicssce eata rclaremgl tmec laulc age satc mtc atmdctrywcrc upeatce as tjms rcpkrt ugecrwcgt mgircdcgta rcvmcw age rcvmsmkg' Nciausc lkna rclmkgaage kia cstmdatcs kh Y@ arc ikgstagt y ijaglmgl as gcw eata ncikdc avamànc IV A pagstk upeatc tjms rcpkrt at a dmgmdud cvcry hmvc ycars kr as dabkr mdprkvcdcgts mg Y@ûgecrstagemgl kr ijaglcs mg ekiudcgtce ratcs kiiur'


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>' YUAUC KH UJC YIMCGIC

Yca$cvc rmsc ms iausce ny a varmcty kh eygadmi agtjrkpklcgmi age gatura haitkrs' Cstmdatcs khpast age prkbcitmkgs kh huturc Y@ arc ecpcgecgt kg tjc mgtcrp ay nctwccg tjcsc haitkrs' Mg krecrtk daoc ikghmecgt prcemitmkgs ankut huturc trcges mt ms mdpkrtagt tk ectcrdmgc tjc kgl$tcrd

jmstkrmi trcges hrkd tjc naiolrkuge kh gatura iyics' Jkwcvcr mecgtmhymgl jmstkrmia trcges ageijaglcs mg sca cvc vary tcdpkra`y age spatma `y age mskatmgl rclmkga trcges ms ija`cglmgl' Mgagy ikasta zkgc tjc aitua ratc kh Y@ ms a ikdnmgatmkg kh l kna sca$`cvc rmsc *LY@^- agekia ikasta prkicsscs mgiuemgl gatura astrkgkdmia kicag age atdkspjcrmi iyics? laimamskstatmi aebustdcgt *LMA-? sunsmecgic? aiirctmkg? age crksmkg kh sjkrc mgcs age ikasta darsjcs'Ujcsc mghùcgics rcsu t mg a kia ratc kh pcricmvce Y@^ cxprcssce as rcatmvc sca$`cvc rmsc* Y@ - wjmij day nc vcry emhhcrcgt hrkd LY@ '

\jm`c Y@ ms dkrc rccvagt hkr dagalcdcgt purpkscs mt ms gcicssary tk hmrst cvauatc LY@^trcges age tjcg hkius kg kia ikgemtmkgs mg tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik khhsjkrc kh skutjcrg @kumsmaga tkmghkrd rcikddcgeatmkgs kg cstmdatmgl `kia ^Y@^' Mg emsiussmgl tjc iurrcgt ugecrstagemgl kh

LY@^ tjms scitmkg wm` ask ectam tjc dctjkek klmcs hkr dcasurmgl LY@ ikdpkgcgts nciausctjms mghkrdatmkg jas mdpmiatmkgs hkr kia ugecrstagemgl kh Luh$spcimhmi Y@ age Y@ '

LY@ ms tjc dcag mgircasc mg sca surhaic ccvatmkg airkss a kh tjc wkr e kicags age ms iausceprmdarm`y ny twk haitkrs2 tjcrda cxpagsmkg age hrcsjwatcr mghùx' Ijaglc mg tjc tkta kicagjcat ikgtcgt ask ia ce tjctjcrdkstcrmi ikdpkgcgtkh LY@^ rchcrs tk tjc mgircasc mg tktakicag vkudc rcsutmgl hrkd mgircasmgl kicag tcdpcraturcs *Agtkgkv ct a ' >663? B cvrcbcva ct a '>66:? @cumcttc ( Dm``cr >66=-' A`tjkulj tcijgmia`y tjc echmgmtmkgs arc s mljt y emhhcrcgt hkrnrcvmty mg tjms rcpkrt wc wm` usc tjc tcrds tjcrdkstcrmi age tjcrda cxpagsmkg mgtcrijaglcany'Hrcsjwatcr mghux mgtk kicags tcrdce tjcdass ikdpkgcgt kh LY@^ iauscs a ijaglc mg l knasca cvc rcsutmgl hrkd tjc cxijaglc kh watcr nctwccg tjc kicag age age hrkd laimcrs micsjccts age ktjcr age mic age tcrrcstrma rugkhh *Iazcgavc ct a ' >66=? Bcvrcbcva ct a ' >66:?@cu mcttc ( Dm``cr >663-' Ujc tcrd custatmi ms hrcqucgty usce mg tcijgmia `mtcraturc age tjcpkpuar prcss tk ecsirmnc sca cvc rmsc euc tk a tkta ijaglc mg tjc lkna kicag' Ujrkuljkut tjmsrcpkrt wc wm ask usc tjat tcrd hkr smdmar purpkscs'

Uk aiiuratcy ectcrdmgc tjc kgl$tcrd jmstkrmia trcge kh LY@^ age nclmg daomgl prcemitmkgs khhuturc pattcrgs rcscarijcrs dust hmrst mecgtmhy age rcdkvc tjc chhcits kh gatura hkrimgls kg tjcsca$ cvc knscrvatmkg eata tk cvauatc tjc tjcrdkstcrmi age dass ikdpkgcgts kg y' Gaturahkrimgls arc pattcrgs kr prkicsscs tjat iag mghùcgic dcag sca cvc *DY@-? arc typmia`y iyi miamg gaturc? age iag nc atdkspjcrmi dctckrkklmia kr iausce ny atcratmkgs mg tjc rktatmkg kh tjcCartj age dkkg' Hkr cxadpc ijaglcs mg tjc krnmta pattcrg kh tjc Cartj age tjc dkkg iagijaglc sca surhaic ccvatmkg kvcr arlc kicags wjmij wm dagmhcst as a sjkrt tcrd trcge mg sca$`cvc dkgmtkrmgl eata' Mt ms tjcrchkrc prchcranc tk javc a sca$ cvc rcikre kgl cgkulj tkcgikdpass scvcra pcrmkes kh agy gatura iyi cs tk prkpcr y aiikugt hkr age rcdkvc ikghkugemglpattcrgs'


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Kgic tjc naiolrkuge chhcit kh gatura hkrimgls ms rcdkvce tjc sca$cvc nuelct kr tjc sud khtjc ikgtrmnutmkgs tk tkta Y@^ *\m``ms ct a' >66:? @cu mcttc ( Dm``cr >66=- iag nc cxprcssce as

jUKU 4jUJC D /jDAYY *Cqg' 1-

wjcrc jUKU ms tjc lkna sca$cvc rmsc ratcjUJC D ms tjc tjcrdkstcrmi ikgtrmnutmkg agejDAYY ms tjc dass ikgtrmnutmkg euc tk hrcsjwatcr mghux'

Chhkrts suij as Bcvrcbcva ct a' *>66:- javc attcdptce tk quagtmhy tjc rcatmvc ikgtrmnutmkgs khdass *jDAYY- age tjcrdkstcrmi *jUJC D- ikdpkgcgts tk tjc tkta sca$cvc nuelct age tjusectcrdmgc wjmij ikgtrmnutmkg ekdmgatcs LY@^' As rcscarijcrs attcdpt tk i ksc tjc nuelctmgecpcgecgt dcasurcdcgts kh stcrmi dass age tkta kr custatmi sca cvc arc ijcioce alamgst kgcagktjcr' Ujms ms gkt a trmvma taso nut m udmgatmgl tjc rcatmvc ikgtrmnutmkgs kh tjcrda cxpagsmkgage hrcsjwatcr mghux arc irmtmia hkr daomgl prkbcitmkgs kh sca$cvc ijaglc mgtk tjc huturc'

>'1' Ucijgmqucs hkr Dcasurmgl Ikdpkgcgts kh Yca @cvc

\jcg attcdptmgl tk iksc tjc sca cvc nuelct mt ms mdpkrtagt tk ikgsmecr tjc dcasurcdcgttcijgmquc usce tk aiqumrc tjc eata' Iurrcgt y sca$ cvc eata arc latjcrce hrkd tjrcc prmdaryskurics tk ectcrdmgc tjc LY@ ratc2 tmec laulcs mg smtudcasurmgl ecvmics age satc`mtc atmdctryrcaemgls'

>'1'1' Umec Laulcs

L`kna`y tmec laulc eata usce hkr dcasurcdcgt kh LY@ arc typmia`y aiqumrce hrkd tjcVcrdagcgt Ycrvmic hkr Dcag Yca cvc cstan msjce mg 1=99 age dagalce ny tjc SO GaturaCgvmrkgdcgt cscarij Ikugim`s Gatmkga Kicagklrapjy Icgtrc*jttp2++www'psds'krl+ankut[us+-' Mg tjc SY tjc Gatmkga Kicagklrapjmi age AtdkspjcrmiAedmgmstratmkg *GKAA- kpcratcs 1>: kgl$tcrd Gatmkga \atcr @cvc Knscrvatmkg Gctwkro*G\@KG- statmkgs tjat dkgmtkr dkgtjy dcag sca$ cvc eata' Eata arc usce tk ectcrdmgc mgcartrcges avcralc scaskga iyics age mgtcraggua varmanmmty mgiuemgl cstmdatce crrkrs nydcasurmgl tjc jcmljt kh sca surhaic rc atmvc tk icrtamg ikasta ncgijdaros' Mg skdc arcas tjcsceata lk naio jugerces kh ycars' Urcges kntamgce hrkd tmec laulc rcikres arc cxtrcdcy vauanceuc tk tjc cgltj kh tmdc cvauatce atjkulj rclmkga age kia ikrrcitmkgs dust nc daec tkikgtrmnutc kia eata tk iaiu atmkgs kh lkna dcags' Umec laulcs dcasurc tjc Y@ at emsirctc`kiatmkgs age cstmdatcs kh LY@ hrkd tmec laulc eata arc ag avcralc kh a tjc tmec laulcrcaemgls kvcr a icrtamg pcrmke kh tmdc *c'l' Ijurij ( \jmtc >665-'

Uk kntamg a rknust cstmdatc kh tjc jmstkrmi rcatmvc dcag sca$`cvc ijaglc a kglcr tmec laulcstatmkg rcikre ms prchcranc cspcima `y mh tjat ratc wm` nc usce tk prcemit huturc Y@ trcges' Asjkrt rcikre iag daoc mt emhhmiu t tk hu `y aiikugt hkr tjc mdpaits kh mgtcraggua age eciaeavarmatmkgs mg sca cvc rcsu tmgl mg dmscaemgl kr crrkgckus sca cvc trcges' UjcMgtcrlkvcrgdcgta Kicagklrapjmi Ikddmssmkg *>668- sullcsts tjat tjc euratmkg kh a tmea rcikresjkue nc at cast twk ugar gkea iyi cs *ankut 56 ycars- nchkrc ncmgl usce tk cstmdatc a kiarcatmvc sca$cvc trcge wjmc Ekulas ct a' *>661- iamds tjat tjc cgltj kh rcikre sjkue nc
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apprkxmdatcy 86 ycars age javc :3# ikvcralc eurmgl tjat tmdc pcrmke tk dmgmdmzc varmatmkg'Ujc ugicrtamgty kr gkmsc mg eata hrkd rcikre cgltjs sjkrtcr tjag 56 ycars mg euratmkg iagqumio y kutwcmlj agy Y@ prkbcitmkgs kh a hcw dm``mdctcrs pcr ycar *Hmlurc 1-' A >66=Cglmgccrmgl Imriu`ar *CI- cstanmsjce ny tjc SY Ardy Ikrps kh Cglmgccrs *SYAIC- ecsirmncstjat mh tjc kg y cstmdatcs avam`anc hrkd kia tmec laulcs arc css tjag 56 ycars mg cgltj trcges

sjkue nc cvauatce mg a rclmkga ikgtcxt usmgl gcarny statmkg rcikres wmtj aecquatc rcikrecgltjs* 56 ycars- hkr tjc sadc tmdc pcrmke tk ikdparc wmtj tjc kia eata tk ectcrdmgcvamemty' Jkwcvcr as wc wm emsiuss atcr mg tjms rcpkrt tjcrc arc smlgmhmiagt mdmtatmkgs tk tjatapprkaij mg ikasta @kumsmaga'

Hmlurc 1'Ujc ikghmecgic mgtcrva arkuge sca$`cvc rmsc prkbcitmkgs mgircascs rapmey as tmec laulc pcrmkeskh rcikre ecircasc nckw smxty *86- ycars' Hmlurc hrkd Rcrvas *>66=-'

Umec laulcs javc traemtmkga `y nccg usce hkr gavmlatmkga purpkscs age ikgscqucgt y wcrcpaice mg arcas kh jcavy watcr trahhmi rcstrmitce tk ikast mgcs age tjc kpcg kicag' Ujms jas ce tkag ugcvcg spatma emstrmnutmkg kh laulcs pkssmny jmgecrmgl aiiuraiy wjcg ectcrdmgmgl kgl$tcrd lkna sca$`cvc trcges' At prcscgt LY@ ratc age aiiccratmkg statmstmis usce ny GKAA arciaiu atce hrkd apprkxmdatcy 1=6 statmkgs ogkwg as tjc L`kna Yca @cvc Knscrvmgl Yystcd*L@KYY- @kgl$Ucrd Urcges gctwkro *Hmlurc >-' Ujcrc arc skdc smlgmhmiagt mdmtatmkgs mg tjateata as GKAA rciklgmzcs tjc prcscgt statmkg emstrmnutmkg ms nmasce tkwares tjc gkrtjcrg


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jcdmspjcrc*jttp2++www'lkss$scacvc'krl+-' Aeemtmkga `y dagalcdcgt kh tjc eata iag ncikdciudncrskdc age quamty assuragic +quamty ikgtrk kh krmlmga kgl$tcrd eatascts iag ncprkncdatmi' \jmc tjcsc age ktjcr mdmtatmkgs ce skdc rcscarijcrs *Lrlcr age Val 1==9- tkikgi uec tmec$laulc eata sjkue gkt nc usce tk ectcrdmgc LY@ trcges suij eata arc vcry uschuas ijcios tk gcwcr eata ik citmkg dctjkes as wc as ncmgl tjc dkst apprkprmatc age khtcg tjc

kgy dctjke hkr kntamgmgl cstmdatcs kh jmstkrmia ^Y@ prmkr tk 1==>'

Hmlurc >' A dap kh tjc L`kna Yca @cvc Knscrvmgl Yystcd @kgl$Ucrd Urcges *L@KYY$@UU- gctwkrokh tmec laulcs usce hkr iaiuatmgl lkna sca$cvc rmsc ratcs m ustratcs tjc nmas mg statmkg emstrmnutmkg mgtjc gkrtjcrg jcdmspjcrc' Dap hrkd L@KYY *jttp2++www'lkss$scacvc'krl+ aiicssce 1= Aulust >616-'

>'1'>' Mg$Ymtu Dcasurcdcgts

Mg tjc SY GKAAs L`kna Kicag Knscrvatmkg Yystcd *LKKY- dagalcs a h cct kh vk ugtccrknscrvatkry sjmps wjmij usc cxtcgeanc prkncs tcrdce cZtcgeanc NatjyUjcrdklrapjs *ZNUs-tk dcasurc kicag tcdpcraturc*jttp2++www'akd'gkaa'lkv+lkks+ukt+xnt$wjat$ms'pjp-' Ujc sjmpstravc akgl sct tragscits tk taoc ZNU rcaemgls? icrtamg arcas arc sadpce 1: tmdcs a ycar tk lamg

mgsmljt kg mgtcraggua age scaskga varmanm mty *Hmlurc 9-' ZNUs arc ecsmlgce tk ha tjrkulj tjcwatcr ikudg at a ogkwg ratc? tjc ecptj kh tjc prknc ms gkt dcasurce nut mghcrrce hrkd tjc tmdc`augijce ny a ha`ratc cquatmkg prkvmece ny tjc daguhaiturcr' ^cicgt y rcscarijcrs hkugesystcdatmi crrkrs mg tjc ha $ratc cquatmkgs wjmij rcsutce mg tcdpcraturc rcaemgls ncmgl assmlgcetk mgikrrcit ecptjs *\m``ms ct a ' >66


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666 as part kh LKKY age ms daec up kh kvcr 9666nattcry$pkwcrce hkats' Ujc hkats ik cit tcdpcraturc age samgmty eata hrkd tjc uppcr >666dctcrs kh tjc mic$hrcc kicag' Spkg rcaijmgl tjc kicag surhaic satc`mtcs ectcit tjc h`katspksmtmkg age tjc eata arc tragsdmttce tk a eata asscdny icgtcr' Arlk h`kats dcasurc tcdpcraturcage samgmty as a hugitmkg kh ecptj tk ecsirmnc jkw duij tjc mgircasc mg DY@ ms tjcrdkstcrmi

*jUJC^D- mg krmlmg age jkw tjc smlga ms emstrmnutce kvcr ecptj'

Hmlurc 9' Ujc dap kh tjc tragscits usce ny GKAA Yjmps kh Kppkrtugmty ecpkymgl cZtcgeancNatjyUjcrdklrapjs *ZNUs- hkr tjc @kw Ecgsmty age Hrcqucgty cpcatce tragscits tk dcasurc

tcdpcraturc airkss tjc lkna kicag' Gktc tjc anscgic kh agy ZNU tragscits mg tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik'Ujcrc ms ask gk Lu h ikvcralc hrkd AKD@s Jmlj$Ecgsmty ZNU Uragscits *gkt sjkwg sccjttp2++www'akd'gkaa'lkv+pjke+jecgxnt+mgecx'pjp-' Hmlurc hrkdjttp2++www'akd'gkaa'lkv+pjke+lkks+ecgxnt+mgecx'pjp aiicssce >> Ycptcdncr >616'

Arlk ikvcrs a arlc pkrtmkg kh tjc wkr e kicag *Hmlurc 5- age ik `cits ikgtmgukus eata mdpkrtagthkr LY@ cstmdatcs' cscarijcrs rcicgt y mecgtmhmce ag crrkr mg a sda pkrtmkg kh tjc Arlk h`katstjat ce tk a hasc ike nmas hrkd >669$>668 wjmij jas smgic nccg ikrrcitce mg iurrcgt cstmdatcs*\m``ms ct a' >66'1'9' Yatc`mtc A tmdctry Dcasurcdcgt

Ujc Arlk Array was gadce suij tk rch`cit tjc rcatmkgsjmp nctwccg tjat gctwkro kh h`kats agetjc Baskg$1 age $> satc`mtc atmdctry dmssmkgs? eata ik `citce ny tjc twk dctjkes arc ikupce tkattamg dkrc aiiuratc cstmdatcs kh LY@ age tk cvauatc rcatmvc ikgtrmnutmkgs' Ujc Baskgsatc`mtcs hk `kwce tjc 1==> SY$Hrcgij bkmgt UKVCZ+Vkscmekg satc`mtc dmssmkg tk traio sca$`cvcjcmljt wmtj raear atmdctcrs *jttp2++tkpcx$www'bp 'gasa'lkv+tcijgkkly+tcijgk kly'jtd-' Ujc
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satc`mtcs dcasurc tkta sca cvc age arc iurrcgt y aitmvc tk kntamg dkrc wmecsprcae ikvcralc'Ypcimhmia`y B askg$1 dcasurcs tjc tkta sca cvc *jUKU- age iag nc usce mg ikgiurrcgic wmtj tjcArlk eata *jUJC D- tk cstmdatc tjc hrcsjwatcr ikgtrmnutmkg *jDAYY- tk tkta sca cvc sjkwg mgCquatmkg >'

jDAYY 4jUKU_hrkd Baskg$1T jUJC D_hrkd ArlkT *Cqg' >-

wjcrc a varmancs arc as mg Cquatmkg 1'

Hmlurc 5' Ujc spatma emstrmnutmkg kh Arlk Array h kats hkr tjc 96$eay pcrmke prcicemgl 16 Darij >611m`ùstratcs tjc wmecsprcae spatma ikvcralc kh tjc gctwkro mg tjc wkr es kicags' Gktc tjc mdmtce

ikvcralc kh Arlk h`kats mg tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik' Dap hrkdjttp2++www'arlk'uise'ceu+mgecx'jtd'

A dkrc rcicgt satc`mtc dmssmkg mgmtmatce mg >66> ny GAYA ms tjc Lravmty cikvcry age I`mdatcCxpcrmdcgt *LÂIC- wjmij dcasurcs tjc ijaglcs mg dass kh tjc wkr e kicag age tjus dkrcemrcity dcasurcs jDAYY*jttp2++lraic'bp'gasa'lkv+mghkrdatmkg+-' Aeemtmkga `y LÂIC wasusce tk ectcrdmgc tjc mic dass$`kss hkr tjc Lrccgage age Agtaritmi Mic sjccts *Ojag ct a' >616?Xcmiklga >66=-' Ujckrctmia`y LÂIC dass sca$`cvc dcasurcdcgts *jDAYY- age tjc Arlk$nasce tjcrdkstcrmi dcasurcdcgts *jUJC D- sjkue cqua tjc tkta sca cvc dcasurcdcgtkntamgce hrkd Baskg$1 *jUKU- m'c'

jUKU_hrkd Baskg$1T4jDAYY_hrkd LÂICT/jUJC D_hrkd ArlkT *Cqg' 9-

wjcrc a varmancs arc as mg Cquatmkg 1'

Kg l kna siacs Arlk age Baskg tklctjcr wmtj satc`mtc lravmty dcasurcdcgts hrkd LÂICpartmtmkg lkna sca$cvc rmsc mgtk mts tjcrda cxpagsmkg age dass$rcatce ikdpkgcgts *\m ms cta ' >66:? Iazcgavc ct a >66=? @cu mcttc age Dm``cr >66=? \ugsij ct a' >66


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rcikres *Hmlurc 3? Anamg ct a' >66=? Vragem ct a ' >66=- hkr tjc hmrst smx tk scvcg ycars kh tjcatmdctry rcikre vaucs nctwccg tjc twk eata skurics ecvmatce nctwccg 1=== age >66: hkrrcaskgs tjat wcrc ugicar as kh tjc tmdc tjat tjms rcpkrt was erahtce *Ekdmglucs ct a' >66:?Ijurij ( \jmtc >611-' Mt ms mdpkrtagt tk rciklgmzc tjat satc`mtc atmdctry eata avam anc smgictjc cge kh 1==> kgy rcicgty rcprcscgt a hu 1:'8$ycar tmea pcrmke ct akgc twk kr tjrcc

pcrmkes as rcikddcgece ankvc hkr echmgmgl a trcge' Jkwcvcr as ecsirmnce atcr mg tjms rcpkrttjc ikdparanm mty nctwccg tmec laulc age satc`mtc atmdctcr eata ms gkgctjccss jmlj'

Hmlurc 3' Lkna sca$cvc cstmdatcs iaiuatce hrkd satc mtc atmdctry *rce mgc- emvcrlce hrkd DY@nasce kg tmec laulc rcikres *nuc mgc- mg hkr ankut 16 ycars nclmggmgl mg 1=== *Ijurij ( \jmtc >611-

hkr rcaskgs tjat arc ugicrtamg' Ujc ecvmatmkgs cae tk smljt y emhhcrcgt LY@ trcges hrkd 1==9$>66=*Uanc 1-'

A`tjkulj @cu mcttc ( Dm``cr *>66=- wcrc anc tk suiicsshu `y naagic tjc DY@ nuelct ktjcrsjavc ecdkgstratce emsircpagimcs mg past chhkrts tk ek tjc sadc cspcima `y rclaremgl tjc rc atmvcikgtrmnutmkgs kh tjc dass age tjcrda cxpagsmkg ikdpkgcgts *Nmgekhh ct a ' >66


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16

dctjkes ikue nc tjc iauscs hkr tjms varmagic' A`tmdctry$ecrmvce dcasurcdcgts age LY@^cstmdatmkgs gcce tk nc prkicssce tk aiikugt hkr haitkrs suij as narkdctrmi prcssurc LMA agescaskgamty' Mt ms ask pkssmnc tjat skdc mgtclra ikdpkgcgt tk tjc ermvmgl prkicsscs kh DY@ijaglc day gkt nc ugecrstkke' Mt ms csscgtma tk ugecrstage tjcsc ikdpkgcgts tk aiiuratcydaoc prcemitmkgs hkr huturc ratcs kh Y@^' Hkr mgstagic mh wc arc ikghmecgt tjat tjc hrcsjwatcr

ikgtrmnutmkg wm` nc tjc ekdmgagt ikdpkgcgt tk mgircascs mg DY@ wc iag cxpcit tjc ratc khmgircasc tk nc gkg mgcar *Iazcgavc ( @`kvc >616? Dcmcr ct a' >66:- age tjus gcmtjcr ugmhkrdairkss tjc lknc gkr stcaey tk rmsc *Lkdcz ct a' >616-'

>'>' Cstmdatcs kh Jmstkrmia Yca$@cvc ^msc

>'>'1' L`kna Jmstkrmia Yca$@cvc msc

Cstmdatmgl a ratc hkr jmstkrmia LY@ ms jmljy ecpcgecgt kg tjc spcimhmi tmdc pcrmke sccitce hkrdcasurcdcgt euc tk tjc ijaglmgl ikgtrmnutmkgs kh tjc tjcrdkstcrmi age dass ikdpkgcgts tk tktaDY@ *B cvrcbcva ct a' >668-' Emsalrccdcgts mg tjc rcscarij ankut tjc datjcdatmia gaturc kh

jmstkrmia Y@ trcges age echmgce aiiccratmkgs kr eciccratmkgs mg tjc ratc kh Y@ kvcr tmdc arceuc tk emhhcrcgtma statmstmia trcges mg eata wmtjmg spcimhmi tmdc hradcs' Hkr cxadpc Ijurij (\jmtc *>668- agayzce a arlc sct kh tmec laulc eata spaggmgl 1: 6'6> mgijcs+yr- GKAAs @ankratkry hkr Yatc`mtcA`tmdctry rcpkrtce ag atmdctcr$nasce mgcar LY@ trcge kh >'= 6'5 dd+yr *6'11 6'6>mgijcs+yr- hkr tjc 1==>$>611 tmdc pcrmke wjcg aiicssce kg 16 Darij >611 *Hmlurc 8-'

Mg aeemtmkg tk tjc pcrmke kh rcikre cstmdatmgl a jmstkrmia ratc kh lkna sca$cvc rmsc ms askmghucgice ny tjc gudncr age spatma emstrmnutmkg kh laulmgl statmkgs sccitce hkr dcasurcdcgt'Duij kh tjc ecnatc ankut iaiuatmgl jmstkrmia sca$ cvc rmsc trcges age tjc rcicgt ecnatc kvcrnktj mgcar vs' gkg$`mgcar trcges mg tjc eata age aiiccratmkgs vs' eciccratmkgs mg tjc ratc kh sca$cvc rmsc kvcr tmdc rcsuts hrkd ijkmics mg wjmij statmkgs arc ijkscg age kvcr wjmij spcimhmitmdc pcrmke tjcy arc agayzce *Jkustkg age Ecag >611a n age i? ajdstkrh age Xcrdccr >611?Ekgkljuc age Varomgskg >611-'

Dkst cstmdatcs kh tjc >6tj icgtury kgl tcrd LY@ javc nccg css tjag > dd+yr *6'6: mgijcs+yr?c'l' Ijurij ct a'>665? Ijurij age \jmtc >668-' Mg ikdparmskg as mgtrkeuice ankvc GKAAsatc`mtc atmdctry eata nasce kg UKVCZ+Vkscmekg Baskg$1 age Baskg$> tcijgk klmcs aiicsscekg 16 Darij >611 ia iu atce ag kvcra 1==9$>616 LY@ ratc *jUKU- kh >'= 6'5 dd+yr *6'11 6'6> mgijcs+yr? Hmlurc


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11

Hmlurc 8' GKAA satc`mtc atmdctry eata aiicssce kg 16 Darij >611*jttp2++mnms'lre 'gkaa'lkv+YAU+Yca@cvc msc+sr+s r[sa[ln[hrcc[txb1b>[=6'peh- m``ustratc ag kvcra`l`kna Y@ ratc *jUKU- jmljcr tjag tjc >6

tj icgtury avcralc kh 1'< 6'9 dd+yr rcpkrtce ny Ijurij age

\jmtc *>668-'

Agy iaiuatmkg kh a mgcar ratc kh jmstkrmia LY@ `caes ny echmgmtmkg tk a ikgstagt vauc' Alcgcra mzce mgcar rclrcssmkg ms ikddkgy rcprcscgtce as

y 4dx /n *Cqg' 5-

wjcrc y ms tjc ecpcgecgt varmancd ms tjc skpc kh tjc mgcx ms tjc mgecpcgecgt varmanc age

n ms tjc 6$mgtcricpt kg tjc y$axms'
http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gbl_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gbl_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gbl_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gbl_free_txj1j2_90.pdf


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1>

Hmlurc 66>$>66= satc`mtc atmdctry eata'

^ccvagt tk Y@ ia iuatmkgs age mlgkrmgl tjc ikgicpt kh tjc y$axms mgtcricpt *wjmij hkr Y@ msarnmtrary- tjc mgcar rclrcssmkg cquatmkg ms cxprcssce as

C*t- 4at *Cqg' 3-

wjcrc C ms tjc ijaglc mg LY@ kvcr tmdct age

a ms tjc ratc kh LY@ *skpc kh tjc mgc-'

Mt ms typmia hkr rcscarijcrs tk prkvmec a ratc kh knscrvce jmstkrmia LY@ as a mgcar avcralc kvcra pcrmke kh tmdc hkr cxadpc Ijurij ( \jmtc *>668- ia iuatce tjc avcralc LY@ hkr tjc >6tjIcgtury as 1'< 6'9 dd+yr *6'68< 6'61> mgijcs+yr-' Jkwcvcr cxadmgatmkg kh tjc jmstkrmiaeata age rcicgt mtcraturc ikgiuec tjat LY@ smgic tjc atc gmgctccgtj icgtury jas gkt nccg`mgcar nut mgstcae jas nccg aiiccratmgl smgic tjat tmdc' Mg tjcmr rcvmsce agaysms Ijurij (\jmtc *>611- mecgtmhmce a statmstmia y smlgmhmiagt gkg$mgcar aiiccratmkg smgic 1::6 age hurtjcr


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19

knscrvce scvcra smlgmhmiagt ecparturcs hrkd tjc kvcra mgcar trcge' \kkewkrtj ct a' *>66=>611- age Bcvrcbcva ct a ' *>66:- suppkrtce tjc Ijurij age \jmtc *>668 >611- hmgemgls ageikgiuece tjat ag aiiccratmkg kh LY@ was sccg kvcr duij kh tjc lkna kicag age tjat tjcaiiccratmkg ratc was varmanc kvcr tjat pcrmke' Ag iurvm`mgcar aiiccratce Y@ sicgarmk mssmdpmstmia y dkecce ny tjc cquatmkg

C*t- 4at/nt> *Cqg' 8-

wjcrc C t age a arc as echmgce mg Cqg' 3 agen ms ag aiiccratmkg haitkr'

Ujc aitua iaiuatmkgs tk ectcrdmgc prkbcitce sca$`cvc rmsc nasce kg tjc gkg$`mgcar apprkaij arcdkrc ikdpcx age arc ecsirmnce hurtjcr mg tjc Yuddary age cikddcgeatmkgs scitmkg kh tjmsekiudcgt as wc as tjc scparatc dkrc ikgimsc lumecmgcs mgiuece as Appcgemx E tk tjms rcpkrt'

Nciausc kh tjc ikgsmecranc varmanmmty mg tjc mgcar$avcralce ratcs age tjc aiiccratmkg ratcs kh

Y@^ ratjcr tjag usc a jmstkrmia ratc tk prcemit huturc ijaglcs mg DY@ mt ms dkrc uschu tk rcy kgscdm$cdpmrmia kr prkicss$nasce dkecs tjat cdpky a dkrc casm`y dcasuranc prkxy hkrectcrdmgmgl huturc trcges mg LY@^' Mh a jmstkrmia trcge was usce tk prcemit LY@^ tjksciaiuatmkgs sjkue mgiuec ag asskimatce aiiccratmkg wmtj agy cxtrapk atce ratc kh Y@^' Asemsiussce ankvc rcscarij sjkws tjat LY@ jas nccg aiiccratmgl smgic tjc atc 1:tj icgtury*Ijurij age \jmtc >665 >611? Bcvrcbcva ct a' >66:? \kkewkrtj ct a' >66: >611-' Ujcappmiatmkg kh a quaeratmi kr aiiccratmgl hugitmkg tk jmstkrmia eata ecvckpce ny Ijurij age\jmtc *>611- rcsuts mg a smljty ncttcr hmt kh tjc eata tjag tjc mgcar kr gkg$aiiccratmglhugitmkg *Hmlurc :- partmiuar y gcar nktj tjc hrkgt age tam cges kh tjc eatasct' Uk rcmtcratc cvcgmh kgc wcrc tk usc a jmstkrmia ratc tk prcemit huturc DY@ ijaglc nasce kg tjc rcscarij tjatiaiuatmkg sjkue aiikugt hkr aiiccratmkg' Mg suppkrt kh tjms iavcat at tjms tmdc wc ek gktsuppkrt huturc LY@ prcemitmkgs nasce kg cxtrapkatmgl a iurrcgt ratc' Dkrckvcr wc ek gktncmcvc tjat tjc utmmzatmkg kh agy prcemitmkg tjat ekcs gkt aiikugt hkr skdc eclrcc kh ikgtmguceaiiccratmkg kh LY@ kvcr tmdc tk nc a pausmnc sicgarmk'

^cicgt agayscs sullcst tjat tjc rc atmvc ikgtrmnutmkgs kh hrcsjwatcr age tjcrda cxpagsmkgmgh ucgics kg LY@ arc mg h`ux' Nmgekhh ct a' *>66669 nut smgic tjcrccasc kh tjcmr >66< rcpkrt dkrc rcicgt punmiatmkgs age eata javc sullcstce tjcrda cxpagsmkgjas skwce smlgmhmiagty' Iazcgavc ct a' *>66:n- ectcrdmgce tjat smgic >669 kicag tjcrdacxpagsmkg jas smlgmhmiagt y skwce age tjat tjc kicag dass ikdpkgcgt jas ekdmgatce Y@^cxp amgmgl 669$>66:' ^cscarij mgvcstmlatmgl tjcsca$cvc nuelct usmgl satc mtc atmdctry knscrvatmkgs jas ikgiuece tjat tjcrda cxpagsmkg jaspatcauce smgic >669 age tjat sca cvcs arc ikgtmgumgl tk rmsc euc prmdarm`y tk aiiccratcelaimcr dctmgl age mic sjcct dass kss a tjkulj at a rceuice ratc *Agtkgkv ct a' >663?Iazcgavc ( @`kvc >616? Iazcgavc ct a ' >66:a? Iazcgavc ct a ' >66:n? B cvrcbcva ct a ' >66:?Gmijk s ( Iazcgavc >616-'


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15

Hmlurc :' Hmttmgl a quaeratmi hugitmkg tk tjc 1::6$>66= Ijurij age \jmtc *>611- eatasct avamanc hrkdIYM^K*jttp2++www'idar'ismrk'au+scacvc+s[eata[idar'jtd`- rcsuts mg a smljty ncttcr hmt kh tjc eatatjag a smdpc mgcar rclrcssmkg' N`uc pkmgts arc tjc IYM^K eata tjc naio mgc age statmstmis ecsirmnc tjcmgcar rclrcssmkg age tjc rce mgc age statmstmis ecsirmnc tjc scikge krecr *quaeratmi- hugitmkg'

Ikgiurrcgt satc mtc atmdctry knscrvatmkgs cstmdatc tjat jDAYY day javc nccg up tk :6# kr >'56'93 dd+yr *6'6=5 6'615 mgijcs+yr'- kh tjc tkta knscrvce mgircasc mg DY@ hrkd >669$>66616-' Ujcsc eataikue javc smlgmhmiagt mdp miatmkgs tk jkw prcemitanc age rccvagt huturc LY@ sicgarmks arc tktjc Luh kh Dcxmik lmvcg mdmts mg tjc dkgmtkrmgl gctwkros tjat echmgc tjc tjcrdkstcrmi agedass ikdpkgcgts kh LY@ as sjkwg mg Hmlurcs 9 age 5'

>'>'>' Jmstkrmia ^clmkga Yca$@cvc msc mg tjc Lu`h kh Dcxmik

Ujc cxtcgsmvc ecsirmptmkg kh sca$`cvc ikdpkgcgts age dcasurmgl tcijgk klmcs ankvc wasgcicssary tk jcp hradc tjc eceuitmvc apprkaij mg tjms rcpkrt age aeercss wjctjcr LY@ ms va me

tk prcemit ijaglcs mg tjc Luh surhaic ccvatmkg' Ujms scitmkg wm` emsiuss tjc eata avam anc hkrtjc Lu h kh Dcxmik tjc trcges mg tjksc eata age tjc mdpkrtagt iavcats kg tjksc eata age eataprkeuits tjat dust nc ikgsmecrce' A`tmdctry eata spcimhmi tk tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik ek sjkw as mljty kwcr ratc kh sca surhaic ccvatmkg ijaglc kvcr tjc past twcgty ycars *Hmlurc 16- tjag tjclkna knscrvatmkgs sjkwg mg Hmlurc 8' Ujms ikue nc ag artmhait kh tjc patcau mg tjcrdacxpagsmkg kh tjc lkna kicags ikdnmgce wmtj tjc pjysmia gaturc kh tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik' As ascdm$cgiksce nasmg tjc dass ikdpkgcgt mgircasc mg LY@ day nc ecayce mg tjc Lu h khDcxmik' Jkwcvcr tjcrc arc vcry hcw L@KYY *Hmlurc 9- kr Arlk *Hmlurc 5- rcskurics age gk

y 4 1'39


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13

ZNU ikvcralc *Hmlurc 9- ecvktce tk tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik tk scparatc cmtjcr hrcsjwatcr *jDAYY- krtcdpcraturc$mgeuice *jUJC^D- ikdpkgcgts hrkd tjc kvcra knscrvce ccvatmkg ijaglcs'

Hmlurc =' A ikdparmskg kh atmdctry$nasce aggua avcralc lkna dcag sca cvc *naio mgc- agercsmeua sca cvc iurvcs m ustratc ag mgircasc mg dass ikdpkgcgt$ermvcg sca cvc *rce mgcs- m'c'knscrvce lkna dcag sca cvc dmgus tjcrda cxpagsmkg *n uc mgc- ikdparce tk tjcrdkstcrmi sca cvc*Iazcgavc ct a' >66:a-' ce age nuc skme age easjce mgcs rchcr tk Msjmm ( Omdktk *>66=- age @cvmtusct a' *>66=- tjcrda cxpagsmkg eata rcspcitmvcy'

L`kna satc `mtc atmdctry eata ecdkgstratc tjat knscrvce LY@ jas gkt nccg cvcgy emstrmnutceairkss tjc wkre kicag *Hmlurc 11- age Dcrrmhmce ct a' >66= emsiussce tjat ratcs kh Y@ mg tjcskutjcrg jcdmspjcrc hrkd 1==9$>66< wcrc lrcatcr tjag tjksc mg tjc gkrtjcrg jcdmspjcrc'Yatc`mtc atmdctry$nasce cstmdatcs kh Y@ mg tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik arc jmljy varmanc wmtj tjclcgcra pattcrg kh jmljcr ratcs kh Y@ mg tjc icgtcr kh tjc Lu h age kwcr ratcs mg nktj tjc castcrgage wcstcrg darlmgs' Ikdp miatmgl tjc mssuc hurtjcr tjcrc ms cvmecgic tjat tjc tmeajyerkeygadmis kh tjc wcstcrg Lu h kh Dcxmik arc emhhcrcgt tjag hkr tjc castcrg Lu h *Hmlurc 1>-'

Quktmgl Rcrvas *>66=-

hkr tjc sadc ycar raglc kh eata, tjc Vaimhmi, wcstcrg Lu h kh Dcxmik, ageNcrduea statmkgs javc wmecr crrkr nars tjag statmkgs mg tjc Atagtmi, castcrg Luhkh Dcxmik, age tjc Iarmnncag Ujc wcstcrg Luh kh Dcxmik statmkgs appcar tkatcrgatc nctwccg pcrmkes kh jmljcr age kwcr ratcs kh sca$cvc rmsc mg ikgtrast tktjc stcaemcr ratcs sccg mg tjc castcrg Luh kh Dcxmik'


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18

Hmlurc 16' Eata hrkd tjc GKAA @ankratkry hkr Yatc`mtc A`tmdctry aiicssce 11 Darij >611*jttp2++mnms'lre 'gkaa'lkv+YAU+Yca@cvc msc+sr+s r[sa[lkd[hrcc[txb1b>[=6'peh- m``ustratc ag Y@ ratchkr tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik kwcr tjag tjc >'= 6'5 dd+yr LY@ trcge iaiu atce hkr tjc sadc tmdc pcrmke'

Sghkrtugatcy tjcrc ms gk mghkrdatmkg rclaremgl tjc cxait iausc kh tjms varmatmkg age trcgesairkss tjc ikast daomgl mt emhhmiut tk emsicrg mh tjc trcge wm` mdpait huturc Y@ ratcs' Ujms

mssuc wm` nc pursuce mg huturc mtcratmkgs kh tjms ekiudcgt' Yuppkrtmgl tmec laulc eata dust asknc apprkaijce iarchu `y nciausc kgy 8 kh tjc 1> tmec laulcs mg wcstcrg age icgtra Lu h khDcxmik javc nccg mg kpcratmkg hkr dkrc tjag 36 ycars *Hmlurc 19- caemgl tk a jmlj cvc kh crrkrwjcg attcdptmgl tk daoc prcemitmkgs hkr sca$cvc trcges wmtjmg tjc =3# raglc kh ikghmecgic*Rcrvas >66=? Hmlurcs 1 age 15-'

Yatc`mtc atmdctry age tmec laulc eata wcrc ikdnmgce tk echmgc tjc ratc kh jmstkrmia Y@^rccvagt tk ikasta @kumsmaga' Umec laulcs mg @kumsmaga arc gkt apprkprmatc tk ectcrdmgc kgltcrd sca$ cvc trcges hkr tjc Lu h euc tk varmanc age mg dagy p aics cxtrcdc sunsmecgic' Mg agapprkaij ecsirmnce ny SYAIC *>66= >611- tjc rclmkga jmstkrmia Y@ trcge hkr tjc Lu h khDcxmik was cstmdatce ny cxadmgmgl smx tmec laulcs mg vcrtmia`y$stanc arcas kh tjc H`krmea Lu h

Ikast *Uan`c 1-' GKAA satc`mtc atmdctry eatascts hkr tjc Lu`h kh Dcxmik age AXMYK *a Hrcgijchhkrt asskimatce wmtj tjc Icgtrc Gatmkga eCtuecs Ypatmacs age tjc Ik `citc @kiamsatmkgYatc`mtcs- eatascts hkr tjc Gkrtj At agtmi Nasmg age tjc Gkrtjcrg Jcdmspjcrc wcrc askikgsmecrce *Uanc >- tk aiikugt hkr tjc lkna varmanm`mty mg knscrvce LY@ emsiussce car mcr'Ujc avcralc ratc kh Y@^ kh tjcsc eatascts ms >'5 dd+yr age ms tjc rcikddcgece ratc hkr jmstkrmirclmkga Y@ mg tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik hrkd tjms rcpkrt' Ujms vauc ms ikgsmstcgt wmtj tjc dkrcrcicgt cstmdatcs kh LY@ hrkd satc`mtc atmdctry *Anamg ct a >66=? Iazcgavc ct a >66:-'
http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gom_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gom_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gom_free_txj1j2_90.pdfhttp://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gom_free_txj1j2_90.pdf


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1' A lrapj kh dcag Y@ trcges hkr GKAA tmec laulcs mg tjc Luh kh Dcxmik sjkw tjat nktjY@ age tjc varmagic arkuge tjc trcge arc lrcatcr mg tjc wcstcrg Luh kh Dcxmik tjag mg tjc cast' Hmlurcikdpmdcgts kh Ijrms Rcrvas aeaptce hrkd Rcrvas *>66=-'

Hmlurc 19' @kgl$tcrd statmkgs mg tjc wcstcrg Lu h kh Dcxmik mg GKAAs G\@KG gctwkro varysmlgmhmiagty mg tjc pcrmke kh rcikre' Hmlurc hrkd Rcrvas *>66=-'


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1=

Hmlurc 15' Ujms lrapj hrkd Rcrvas *>66=- ecsirmncs jkw tjc =3# ikghmecgic mgtcrva kh tjc Y@^ trcgeectcrdmgce hrkd GKAA G\@KG tmec laulcs ms jmljy ecpcgecgt kg tjc alc kh tjc statmkg' Ykdcscparatmkg nctwccg castcrg age wcstcrg Lu h kh Dcxmik G\@KG statmkgs ms cvmecgt cdpjasmzmgl tjcmssucs kh emhhcrcgtma tmea jyerkeygadmis ecsirmnce mg Hmlurc 11'

Uanc 1' Umec laulc eata hkr statmkgs mg tjc Luh ikast kh Hkrmea lcgcra y ikgsmecrce lckklmia ystanc age tjus mgemiatmvc kh tjc Luh rclmkga ratc kh jmstkrmia Y@ ' Xaucs sjkwg arc mgcar trcges hkrtjc pcrmke kh rcikre tk tjc ycar mgemiatce *c'l' eata hkr tjc Vcgsaika laulc sjkw tjc mgcar trcge hrkd1=>9$>668 1=>9$>66'6: >'95 >'9: >'9< >'>3

I`carwatcr Ncaij H@ 1=616 >'59 >'93 >'9= >'3= >'3: >'5'9< >'9< >'51 >'56 >'9:

Hkrt Dcycrs H@ 1=83$>616 >'56 >'95 >'9> >'5> >'9= >'9616 >'6> >'68 >'6< >'1: >'13 >'16Ocy \cst H@ 1=19$>616 >'>5 >'>3 >'>8 >'>< >'>< >'>8

Umec Laulc Dcag >'91


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>6

Uanc >' Jmstkrmia ratcs kh rclmkga sca$cvc rmsc nasce kgsatc`mtc atmdctry knscrvatmkgs aiicssce kg 11 Aprm >61>'A` trcges arc nasce kg 1==>$>61> eatascts'

A`tmdctcr Dmssmkg + Ekdamg @mgcar Urcge*dd+yr-

GKAA Luh kh Dcxmik >'>6

AXMYK Gkrtj Atagtmi >'8=

AXMYK Gkrtjcrg Jcdmspjcrc >'93

Yatc mtc Atmdctry Dcag >'51

>'9' Vrkbcitmkgs kh Huturc Yca$@cvc ^msc

>'9'1' L`kna Vrkbcitce Yca$@cvc msc

Ujc arlcst ugicrtamgty mg prcemitmgl Y@^ kvcr tjc gcxt icgtury ms tjc rcspkgsc kh mic sjccts tkijaglcs mg tcdpcraturc *A``mskg ct a ' >66=-' Xauljag *>66:- sullcstce tjat mg tjc ikgtmguceprcscgic kh wardmgl tcdpcraturcs tjc hccenaio dcijagmsds wjmij a kw tjc mic sjccts tk pcrsmstday nc emsruptce tk tjc pkmgt tjat tjc mic sjcct wku e emsmgtclratc kr ik `apsc' Ujc \cstcrgAgtaritmi Mic Yjcct akgc jas tjc iapaimty tk ramsc sca$`cvc nctwccg 9 age : dctcrs *16 age >8?Nadncr ct a' >66=? Nmgekhh ct a' >66


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>1

dass ikdpkgcgt tk tjc LY@ nuelct wjmij as emsiussce ankvc ikgtamgs smlgmhmiagtugicrtamgtmcs' Jmstkrmia ratcs kh LY@ arc emhhmiu t tk rcp miatc age prcemitmkgs kh tjc huturcwm mocwmsc aways mgvkvc varmkus dalgmtuecs kh ugicrtamgty'

Hmlurc 13' Dmtrkvmia ct a' *>66=- prcemitce tjc pkssmnc emstrmnutmkg kh sca$cvc ijaglc *dctcrs- mg

rcspkgsc tk a ik àpsc kh tjc \cst Agtaritmi mic sjcct aiikugtmgl hkr tjc rktatmkg kh tjc Cartj' Ujc ankvcvaucs arc mg aeemtmkg tk ag ugecr ymgl chhcitmvc mgircasc mg DY@ hrkd mic sjcct dct hkr cxadpc mhLY@ ms 1 dctcr *mgiuemgl dass age tjcrdkstcrmi chhcits- a partma ik àpsc kh tjc Agtaritmi mic sjcctwkue rcsut mg a DY@ mgircasc kh 1'9 dctcrs mg tjc Gkrtjcrg Lu h kh Dcxmik'

As emsiussce mg Ycitmkg >'>'1 dagy rcscarijcrs javc ectcrdmgce tjat tjc jmstkrmia trcge khL@Y ms aiiccratmgl' \c tjcrchkrc damgtamg ikghmecgic tjat cxtcgsmkg kh a mgcar hugitmkgechmgmgl jmstkrmia eata ms dkst mocy ag kvcr y$ikgscrvatmvc assudptmkg tjat ikue put tjcYtatcs ikasta judag age gatura rcskurics at rmso' Uk aecquatcy pag age prktcit tjcscrcskurics dagalcrs sjkue assudc a ikgtmguce aiiccratmkg mg LY@^' Dkrckvcr mt ms gkt

typmia `y vauanc tk nasc a huturc LY@ prcemitmkg strmit y kg ag cxtcgsmkg kh past eata agedkst prcemitmkgs daec ny rcscarijcrs arc nasce kg ectam`ce dkecmgl mgomgl LY@ tk cmtjcrtcdpcraturc kr pausmnc mic sjcct dct pjysmis *Vhchhcr ct a' >66:? âjdstkrh >66


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>>

MVII lkna i mdatc ijaglc dkec sicgarmks *Hmlurc 18- age prcemitce a raglc mg LY@ kh 6'3$1'5 dctcrs *1'8 5'8- ny >166 wmtj 1 dctcr *9'9- ncmgl tjc dkst moc y' Ikdparmskgs khcdpmrmia eata hrkd tmec laulcs age satc mtc atmdctcrs hrkd 1==6$>668 tk dkec prcemitmkgs khMVII sicgarmks javc hkuge tjat knscrvce LY@ dmrrkrce tjc jmljcst ratcs kh Y@ prcemitce*Hmlurc 166=- suppkrtce ny a tcdpcraturc$nasce Y@ dkec wmtj a =:#ikrrcatmkg wmtj knscrvce eata hrkd 1::6$>666 mgircasce tjc prcemitce LY@ asskimatce wmtjtjc MVII sicgarmks tk 6'


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>9

Hmlurc 166:-'

Mt ms mdpkrtagt tk rcamzc tjat tjc gudcrmia vaucs hkr tjc aiiccratmkg ikgstagts ecrmvce ny GÎ*1=:66=- assudce tjc jmstkrmia mgcar ratc kh LY@ tk nc 1'< dd+yr wjmij as sjkwg mg Uanc 9rcsu tce mg emhhcrcgt aiiccratmkg ikgstagts hrkd tjksc iaiuatce mg GÎ *1=:66:-'A`tjkulj tjc jmstkrmia rcikre ms ijaraitcrmzce ny ag kvcra `kgl$tcrd aiiccratmkg tjcrc arcsjkrtcr pcrmkes kh lrcatcr aiiccratmkg age eciccratmkg tjat vary ecpcgemgl kg tjc pcrmke kh tmdcage tjc rclmkg tjc eatasct iadc hrkd *\kkewkrtj ct a' >611-' Cvcg tjkulj tjc dabkrmty khsimcgtmhmi chhkrt tk eatc jas ikgiuece tjat tjc ratc kh Y@ ms aiiccratmgl Jkustkg ( Ecag*>611a- iàmdce tjat tjc ratc ms aitua`y eciccratmgl nasce kg tjc eata age tmdc pcrmke cvauatce'Ujms ikgi usmkg jas nccg tjc sunbcit kh vmlkrkus ecnatc mg tjc mtcraturc *âjdstkrh age Xcrdccr


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>5

>611? Jkustkg age Ecag >611n? Ekgkljuc age Varomgskg >611? Jkustkg age Ecag >611i-'\jm`c wc ijkksc at tjms tmdc tk suppkrt tjc dabkrmty vmcw tjat Y@ ms aiiccratmgl tjms mssuc wm `nc i kscy cxadmgce mg tjc huturc' Aeemtmkga`y mh tjc mgircasmgl hrcsjwatcr ikgtrmnutmkg tkLY@ ikgtmgucs as kut mgce mg tjms rcpkrt a ikgiurrcgt damgtcgagic kr mgircasc mg aiiccratmkgratcs ms moc`y'

Hmlurc 1:' Dkemhmiatmkgs tk tjc G^I *1=:66=*sjkwg- wm` gcce tk ekgc mh agy ktjcr jmstkrmia lkna sca$ cvc rmsc ratc ms usce'

Uanc 9' Ikdparmskg kh ecrmvce aiiccratmkg ikgstagts mg G I *1=:66=- hkr tjclcgcramzce prcemitmvc LY@ cquatmkg C*t- 4at/nt>' Ycc Cquatmkg 8 hkr paradctcr echmgmtmkgs'

LY@ Yicgarmk*dctcrs ny >166-

Aiiccratmkg Ikgstagts *n-*dctcrs+yr>-

G^I *1=:611-*a- 46'661< dctcrs+yr

6'3 dctcrs >':6 x 16$3 >'98 x 16$3 >'


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>3

>'9'>' Vrkbcitce clmkga Yca$@cvc msc mg tjc Lu h kh Dcxmik

Ujcrc jas nccg vcry mtt c wkro ekgc tk spcimhmia `y dkec tjc kvcra ` ijaglc mg tjc Luh khDcxmik watcr surhaic hkr tjc rcst kh tjms icgtury' Sgtm tjcsc rclmkga mgvcstmlatmkgs arcpcrhkrdce DY@ ijaglcs dust nc prmdarm`y cxtraitce hrkd satc`mtc atmdctry eata *Hmlurcs 19

age 1- wjmij arc css prcimsc euc tk tjc wmec ikvcralc age tjc sjkrt pcrmke kh rcikre kr hrkdtjc avcralc kh a tjc tmec laulcs wjmij iag nc css rcmanc euc tk tjc pcrmke kh rcikre ageemhhcrcgics mg lckklmia stanmmty' Mg tjc anscgic kh kiatmkg$spcimhmi sca$cvc nuelcts mt msugicar jkw tjc rc atmvc ikgtrmnutmkgs kh tjc tjcrdkstcrmi age dass ikdpkgcgts kh Y@ wm``dagmhcst mg tjc Lu h' \c dust tjcrchkrc assudc tjat a sjmht tk a hrcsjwatcr dct$ermvcg mgircascmg Y@ wm` ahhcit tjc Lu h smdm`ar y tk tjc lkna kicags as ecsirmnce ankvc' A lkna i mdatcijaglc prkbcitmkg mgiuece mg Dccj ct a ' *>661st icgtury asiaiu atce hrkd tjc rcsu ts kh 18 lkna i mdatc ijaglc dkecs ruggmgl tjc MVII A1N i mdatc sicgarmk'csuts sullcst tjat sca cvc ijaglcs mg tjc Luh kh Dcxmik eurmgl tjc gcxt =6 ycars wm gkt emhhcr

sunstagtma `y hrkd tjc lkna dcag' Hmlurc hrkd Dccj ct a' *>66


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>8

rcikddcgeatmkg rcsuts hrkd ag mgecpcgecgt asscssdcgt kh tjc avam`anc eata mt ms lcgcra`yikgscrvatmvc wjcg ikdparce tk rcicgt pun miatmkgs prcemitmgl huturc LY@ *Hmlurc >6-' Ujmsrcikddcgeatmkg ms ask ikgsmstcgt wmtj smdm ar chhkrts kglkmgl mg ktjcr statcs' Ujc Dmadm$EaecIkugty I mdatc Ijaglc Uaso Hkric *>616- rcikddcgece tjat a ikugty alcgimcs mgiuec Y@^cstmdatcs mgtk tjcmr p aggmgl ekiudcgts aiikugtmgl hkr a 6'58$d *1'3- rmsc mg sca cvc ny >636

age ag Y@ kh 6'=$1'3 d *9$3- ny >166' Ujc hmrst kh tjrcc Daryage Ikasta VrklradUcijgmia Lumeagic rcpkrts hkr Ekrijcstcr Ikugty *Ik c >66:- cstmdatcs 6'8$6'= d *>$9- khY@ hkr tjc Ijcsapcaoc Nay rclmkg ny >166'

Hmlurc >6' IV^A$@AICY rcikddcgeatmkgs hkr huturc lkna sca$ cvc rmsc ny >166 arc ikgsmstcgt wmtjmh s mljt y ikgscrvatmvc mg ikdparmskg tk a raglc kh va ucs hrkd rcicgt punmsjce simcgtmhmi mtcraturc' Ujcrce mgc mgemiatcs tjc prmdary @AICY rcikddcgeatmkg kh 1 dctcr LY@ ny >166 wmtj a nkugemgl raglckh 6'3 age 1'3 dctcrs *lrccg mgcs-' Hmlurc hrkdjttp2++wj'cr'usls'lkv+sr+scacvcrmsc'jtd`'

Ujms rcikddcgeatmkg ms kgy part kh tjc kvcra ` prcemitmkg kh huturc rcatmvc Y@^ age dust ncikdnmgce wmtj prcemitmkgs kh sunsmecgic age darsj vcrtmia aiirctmkg' Ujksc twk haitkrs arcecsirmnce gcxt age tjc kvcra rcikddcgeatmkg hkr cstmdatmgl Y@ hkr prkbcit paggmgl ageecsmlg purpkscs wm hk kw mg tjc ast scitmkg kh tjms rcpkrt'
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>'5' ^catmvc Yca$@cvc ^msc mg Ikasta @kumsmaga

>'5'1' Cstmdatcs kh Jmstkrmia ^catmvc Yca$@cvc msc mg Ikasta @kumsmaga

catmvc sca$cvc rchcrs tk tjc jcmljt kh sca cvc as dcasurce hrkd a partmiuar pkmgt kr arca kg

tjc cartj,s surhaic' Ijaglc mg rcatmvc sca$cvc usua y rcsuts hrkd tjc mgtcraitmkg kh twkmgecpcgecgt prkicsscs2 1- ijaglc mg tjc anskutc ccvatmkg kh tjc cartj,s kicag *LY@^- age >-`kia ijaglc *up mht kr sunsmecgic- mg tjc anskutc ccvatmkg kh tjc age dass' Aeemgl tk Cquatmkg8 ^Y@ iag nc rcprcscgtce ny tjc lcgcramzce cquatmkg2

C*t- 4at/nt> /Y *Cqg' 166 DY@' As suij tjcdatjcdatmia vaucs kh tjc aiiccratmkg ikgstagts arc ecpcgecgt kg tjat spcimhmi startmgl pkmgtage tjc lcgcramzce cquatmkg ast echmgce mg Cquatmkg 8 gcces tk nc atcrce at tjms pkmgt nciausckh tjms spcimhmimty' Ypcimhmia`y as upeatce mg SYAIC *>611- tjc lcgcramzce cquatmkg gcces tknc rcpaice ny tjc dkrc ectam`ce cquatmkg

C *t>$1==>-$C*t1$1==>-4a"*_t>$1==>T$_t1$1==>T-/n"**_t>$1==>T>$_t1$1==>T

>-/Y"*_t

>$1==>T$_t

1$1==>T- *Cqg' :-

wjcrc a paradctcrs arc as echmgce mg Cquatmkg >a age n-' Ujc mgcar Y@ trcge mgcs as iaiuatce mgRcrvas *>66=- arc sunstagtma y emhhcrcgt hkr tjc twk statmkgs age m ustratc tjc mdpkrtagic khlck kly kg tjc pjysmia stanm`mty kh tjksc statmkgs' Yanmgc Vass Gkrtj mg tjc dkrc stanc IjcgmcrV amg kh skutjwcstcrg @kumsmaga jas a duij kwcr dcag Y@ `mgcar trcge tjag Lrage Ms cwjmij ms kiatce wmtjmg tjc Dmssmssmppm mvcr Ectami V`ag' Dkrckvcr tjc Y@ trcge hkrYanmgc Vass Gkrtj ms dkrc tjag trmp c tjc 1'


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>:

trcge hkr tjc 1=5668 pcrmke kh rcikre' Ujms ikdparatmvc y jmlj ratc kh ^Y@ ms iausceprmdarmy ny age sunsmecgic ugcqumvkia y tjc dkst varmanc age smlgmhmiagt ikgtrmnutkr tkrcatmvc sca$cvc rmsc mg ikasta @kumsmaga'

Hmlurc >1' GKAAs tmec laulc gctwkro mg @kumsmaga ikvcrs du tmpc lckdkrpjmi scttmgls wmtjmg tjcYtatcs ikasta zkgc' Gktc tjat tjrcc statmkgs arc gkt sjkwg kg tjms dap2 Iarrk `tkg Ircsicgt Imty AmrLap age Jucy @kgl Nrmelc Amr Lap' Gktc ask tjat tjc Ytkuts Vass age Dcsqumtc Vkmgt statmkgs javcnccg ecikddmssmkgce' Hmlurc hrkdjttp2++clmsws61'gks'gkaa'lkv+wcnsmtc+ik$kps+statmkgs+vmcwcr'jtd'

Ujcrc jas nccg skdc emsiussmkg kh tjc utm`mty kh tjc Y@^ trcge hrkd tjc Culcgc Ms age Ytatmkg*Hmlurc >>i-' Ujc pcrmke kh rcikre hkr tjat statmkg ms kg y 1=9=$1=611-' Mt ms jkwcvcr pkssmn c tk ikdparc tjc Culcgc Ms ageeata tk tjat hrkd Yanmgc Vass Gkrtj age Lrage Ms c wjcrc tjc pcrmkes kh rcikre kvcr ap age tjusa kw hkr skdc mghcrcgic kh tjc jmstkrmia ikdparatmvc stanmmty kh tjc icgtra ikast vcrsus tjcwcstcrg age castcrg darlmgs kh tjc ikast'

Ujc @IA Yimcgic ( Ucijgk kly Vrklrad ms mocwmsc hmga mzmgl a rcpkrt tjat iaiuatcs mgcar^Y@ trcge mgcs hkr gmgctccg SYAIC$kpcratce tmec laulcs mg skutj @kumsmaga *Ayrcs mgprcparatmkg-' Ujat mghkrdatmkg wm` nc mgiuece mg tjms rcpkrt as ag adcgedcgt tk Uanc 5 ageHmlurc >1' Kgic IV^A$@AICY dkst mocy wmtj GKAA assmstagic jas iaiuatce mgcar trcgeshkr a kh tjc tmec laulcs sjkwg mg Hmlurc >1 wc wm cstanmsj ag appcgemx hkr tjc tkta pkk khGKAA age SYAIC tmec laulcs as a ikgimsc rchcrcgic hkr IV A prkbcit ecmvcry tcads'
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>=

Uanc 5' A suddary kh tjc iurrcgt GKAA tmec laulc statmkgs sjkws tjat kg y twk statmkgs rccvagt tkikasta @kumsmaga javc a suhhmimcgt pcrmke kh rcikre tk cstanmsj a Y@ trcge' Y@ trcges arc gktsjkwg mh gkt lmvcg ny GKAA' GKAA jas kgy iaiuatce mgcar trcges hkr tjc Lrage Msc age YanmgcVass Gkrtj laulcs'

Ytatmkg GKAA Ytatmkg ME Vcrmke kh cikre ^Y@^ Urcge

Nay \avcage ]aijt Iùn :663$ prcscgt g+a\cst Nago :5:> >669$ prcscgt g+a

" ^Y@ trcge iaiuatce ny Rcrvas *>66=- hkr Lrage Ms c was hkr tjc tmdc pcrmke 1=5668 age tjctrcge iaiuatce hkr Yanmgc Vass Gkrtj was hkr tjc tmdc pcrmke 1=3:$>668'

>'5'>' Yunsmecgic

Ujc tmec laulc eata cdpjasmzc tjc mdpkrtagic kh ncmgl anc tk ekiudcgt tjc ikgtrmnutmkgs khsunsmecgic age aiirctmkg tk tjc kvcra ^Y@ at emsirctc pkmgts mg ikasta @kumsmaga' Agy chhkrttk ikghmecgt y mgikrpkratc pktcgtma Y@ mdpaits kg ikasta wctages mgtk paggmgl dust aiikugthkr tjc sud kh haitkrs mghùcgimgl Y@^2 1- tjc ijaglc mg tjc surhaic ccvatmkg kh tjc Lu h khDcxmik wjmij ms tjc prmdary tkpmi kh tjms ekiudcgt? >- sunsmecgic? age 9- darsj vcrtmiaaiirctmkg wjmij iag khhsct skdc Y@ mdpaits' Ujms rcpkrt ekcs gkt attcdpt tk cxjaustmvcyrcvmcw tjc ast twk tkpmis nut wm suddarmzc rccvagt prkeuits hrkd tjc statc kh tjc simcgic tjat

iag mghkrd IVÂ aitmvmtmcs'

Yunsmecgic ms wmecy rciklgmzce as a smlgmhmiagt ermvcr kh rcatmvc sca$cvc rmsc mg skutjcrg@kumsmaga age prknan y tjc prmgimpa ermvcr mg skutjcast @kumsmaga hkr tjc gcar$tcrd' Ujcrc arca gudncr kh mgecpcgecgt haitkrs tjat mghùcgic tjc ratc kh sunsmecgic * cce age ]um`` >66=-' Attjc kia siac tjc ekdmgagt haitkr day vary age tjus wc ask rciklgmzc tjat ratcs kh sunsmecgicarc jmljy varmanc airkss tjc @kumsmaga ikasta zkgc' Jkwcvcr kur ugecrstagemgl kh tjc cxaitratcs kh sunsmecgic at tjc kia cvc ms vcry mdmtce'


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96

*a-

*n-

*i-Hmlurc >>' Y@ trcge mgcs hkr tjc Yanmgc Vass Gkrtj *a- age Lrage Msc *n- GKAA tmec laulcsm`ùstratc tjc smlgmhmiagic kh lck klmia stanm`mty kg Y@^ age tjc emhhcrcgic nctwccg tjc dkrc stancIjcgmcr Vàg *Yanmgc- age tjc css stanc Ectami Vàmg *Lrage Msc-' Ujc Y@ trcge hkr Yanmgc VassGkrtj 1=3:$>668 was 3'88 1'6< dd+yr *6'>> 6'65> mgijcs+yr'-' Ujc Y@ trcge hkr Lrage Ms c1=5668 was ='>5 6'3= dd+yr *6'98 6'6>9 mgijcs+yr'-'Ujc Y@ trcge mgc hkr tjc Culcgc Ms agetmec laulc *i- hkr tjc pcrmke kh rcikre 1=9=$1=5 dd+yr*6'9: 6'65= mgijcs+yr'- at tjat statmkg mg tjc icgtra @kumsmaga ikast' Ujc statmkg jas nccg rcdkvce skkgy ikdparmskgs wmtj jmstkrmia y ikgtcdpkrary statmkgs arc pkssmnc' Hmlurcs hrkd Rcrvas *>66=-'


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91

^cicgt attcdpts javc nccg daec tk aiogkw`celc tjat spatma varmanm mty mg sunsmecgic ratcs agehaitkr tjat varmanm`mty mgtk prklrad age prkbcit p aggmgl' Ujc jyerau mi age jyerkeygadmi*J(J- dkec hkr tjc prkpksce Ekgaeskgvm``c @kumsmaga tk tjc Lu`h kh Dcxmik H kke IkgtrkVrkbcit utmmzce a emlmtmzce vcrsmkg kh a ikarsc$siac dap ecvckpce ny Ec Nrmtsij kh tjcSYAIC Gcw Kr cags Emstrmit Khhmic *Hmlurc >9-' Dkrc rcicgt y as part kh tjc dkecmgl chhkrt

mghkrdmgl tjc >61> rcvmsmkg kh tjc Ytatcs Dastcr Vàg a Yunsmecgic Aevmskry Lrkup dct kg 15Ycptcdncr >616 tk asscdnc a eraht dap kh a raglc kh sunsmecgic vaucs tjat tjc Ytatcs ikastazkgc iag cxpcit tjrkulj >686 *Hmlurc >5-' Ujc raglcs mg tjat dap arc arlc nktj wmtjmg ageairkss pk ylkgs' Hkr tjc prkbcit$chhcits dkecmgl ugecrtaocg hkr tjc Dastcr Vàg rcvmsmkg tjctwk sunsmecgic sicgarmks ncmgl agayzce usce vaucs kh >6# age 36# kh tjc raglc hrkd tjcdmgmdud vauc kh tjc mgemvmeua pkylkgs sjkwg mg Hmlurc >5'

Kglkmgl wkro ny tjc @kumsmaga Lckklmia Yurvcy ikddmssmkgce ny IVÂ wm` suddarmzckur ugecrstagemgl kh tjc lck klmia hradcwkro ugecr ymgl skutj @kumsmaga as wc as prkvmec agkvcrvmcw kh jmstkrmia ratcs kh sunsmecgic airkss tjc agesiapc' Ujms wkro wm` hurtjcr num e kgtjc suddary rcpkrt Sgecrstagemgl Yunsmecgic mg Ikasta @kumsmaga * cce (]um >66=-

prcparce hkr tjc Ytatc age tjc SY Ardy Ikrps kh Cglmgccrs ny tjc @IA Yimcgic age UcijgkklyVrklrad Khhmic' Mt ms jkpce tjat tjms mghkrdatmkg as wc as ikgtmguce dkgmtkrmgl eata hrkd tjcI\VVÂ Vrklrads Ikastwmec chcrcgic Dkgmtkrmgl Yystcd *I^DY-$\ctages statmkgs wm `jcp tk tmljtcg tjc prcemitce raglcs kh sunsmecgic sjkwg mg Hmlurc >5'

>'5'9' Darsj Xcrtmia Aiirctmkg

Kur ugecrstagemgl kh darsj vcrtmia aiirctmkg ms mocwmsc cvk vmgl' Ujc anm`mty kh darsjcs tkoccp up wmtj dkecratc cvcs kh ^Y@ vma aiirctmkg kh nktj dmgcra age krlagmi skm datcrmajas kgl nccg ugecrstkke *scc suddary mg Dmtsij age Lksscmgo >666-' Uypmia`y ikastadarsjcs javc a raglc kh kptmdud ecptj age wmtjmg tjms raglc tjcy wm` rcspkge pksmtmvcy agecsscgtma y occp paic wmtj a rmsc mg sca$cvc ugtm mt rcaijcs a icrtamg jcrctkhkrc ugectcrdmgceratc kh rmsc wjcrcmg darsjcs wm` gk kglcr nc anc tk aiirctc age wm erkwg' Krlagmi dattcrprkeuitmkg mg ikasta darsjcs ms emrcit y rcatce tk tjc ratc kh ^Y@^ age tjat up tk a irmtmiaik àpsc tjrcsjke darsjcs mg ikasta @kumsmaga javc tjc pktcgtma tk krlagmia`y aiirctc agedatij sunstagtma cvcs kh Y@ '

Ujc kptmdud ecptj age darsj ik àpsc tjrcsjk e ms mocy ugmquc tk caij darsj typc age wm`ècpcge upkg tjc anmmty tk damgtamg ccvatmkg vma vclctatmvc lrkwtj' Gktc tjms emhhcrssmlgmhmiagt y hrkd dairktmea ikastmgcs wjcrc darsj aiirctmkg ms scemdcgt ermvcg' Ujmsmghkrdatmkg wm nc dkrc emhhmiut tjag tjc sunsmecgic prcemitmkgs tk mgikrpkratc mg prklrad ageprkbcit paggmgl nciausc aiirctmkg mg darsjcs ms mghucgice ny gatura iyics spatma yecpcgecgt kg tjc spcimcs dmx kh tjc pagt ikddugmtmcs kh mgtcrcst age ms arlcy ecpcgecgt kgmgmtma c cvatmkg rcatmvc tk tjc watcr surhaic' Mt wkue nc ecsmranc tk lcgcratc a dap tjatspatma y ecsirmncs pktcgtma aiirctmkg mg wctages age mecgtmhy ny wctage typc tjc irmtmiatjrcsjke pkmgt kh DY@ mgircasc ncykge wjmij darsj ccvatmkg ikàpscs' Ujc hamùrc tk aiikugthkr eygadmi ratcs kh LY@ ugecr huturc sicgarmks rmsos ugecrcstmdatmgl tjc mgugeatmkg strcsstjat darsj vclctatmkg wm scc pkssmny caemgl tk kvcry$kptmdmstmi prcemitmkgs kh vcrtmiaaiirctmkg age darsj pcrsmstcgic' \jm`c tjms simcgic ms gasicgt at prcscgt mt prkdmscs tk nc asmlgmhmiagt ikgtrmnutmkg tk prcemitmgl kia gct Y@ mg @kumsmagas ikasta wctages'


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9>

*a-

*n-

Hmlurc >9' A dap kh sunsmecgic ecvckpce ny Nrmtsij mg >66< m ustratcs tjc spatma varmanmmty mgprcemitce sunsmecgic ratcs mg skutjcrg @kumsmaga' A pkrtmkg kh tjms dap was emlmtmzce *n- hkr usc mg tjcjyerkeygadmi dkecmgl hkr tjc Ekgaeskgvm``c tk tjc Luh prkbcit' Hmlurc *n- hrkd IJU >616'


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99

Hmlurc >5' Dap kh prkbcitce sunsmecgic raglcs hkr skutj @kumsmaga lcgcratce ny tjc Yunsmecgic Aevmskry Vagc hkr tjc @kumsmaga IV A DastcrV ag >61> Speatc hk `kwmgl a dcctmgl kg 15 Kitkncr >616'

1


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95

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Anticipated Sea-Level Rise Coastal Louisiana Technical Report Version 1.4