An Analysis into whether mid-tabled home teams from the English Premier League season 2014/2015 react to a losing, ‘evolving’ match status, focusing on their patterns of play, using key performance indicators.

ANTHONY ROSSK1305299

Why Match Status?“The match status (win, lose or draw) has been demonstrated to be one of the most influential situational variables in sport”

(Lago, 2009)

“A losing match status outcome was as a result of a misjudgement of tactics or simply bad luck”

(James et al, 2004; Bloomfield et al, 2005; Taylor et al, 2008)

Why Match Status…?

“The final match status alone cannot represent how a team/individual has performed due to the unpredictability of sport”.

Lago (2005)

However…

Evolution of the ‘Evolving’ Match Status…

“An ‘evolving’ match status can provide a greater understanding of performance and in particular, an insight into how their team reacts to a changing sporting environment, with an aim of impacting/altering the circumstance presented to them”.

Rees et al, (2011)

Previous Research… Bloomfield et al, (2005) – Emphasis on possession, fails to be representative of

the entire league.

Lago (2009) – KPI = Possession, only one team from one nation.

Lago Penas et al, (2011) – Basic KPI’s; incorporates possession.

Paixão et al, (2013) – Cultural Differences; home/away not considered. Conflicting study = Lago (2012).

Lago-Penas and Gomez (2014) – Only focus is Possession; lack of focus on one particular evolving match status; Matches not broken down.

Aims… Primary Aim:

- An analysis into whether mid-tabled home teams from the English Premier League 2014/2015 season react to a losing match status, focusing on their patterns of play, using key performance indicators.

Secondary Aim:- To distinguish how these teams react to a losing, evolving match

status.

Methodology…

Methodology… Losing 1-0 evolving match status

4 mid-tabled home teams – Everton, West Ham, Stoke City and Crystal Palace

Footage was obtained from Wyscout (www.wyscout.com)

31 matches found; 30 matches analysed

Analysed using the video-statistical software: Gamebreaker (GameBreaker Plus, Sports Tec, New Zealand).

The frequencies of these KPI’s were tallied from each performance.

Methodology…

Normative profiling stability in the chosen KPI’s was found to a mixed level.

Intra-reliability assessed.

A Kappa score of 0.78 was found (Substantial Agreement)

Inter-reliability was considered

Statistical Analysis… Data found to be non-parametric. A Kolmogorov-Smirnoff test (P<0.05) also revealed that the normality of data had

been violated.

Test number 1: ‘Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test’ comparing the conceding quarters and their subsequent reaction quarters.

Test number 2: ‘Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test’ comparing KPI groups from conceding quarter 3 (45-67.5 Mins) and the subsequent reaction quarter (67.5-90+ Mins) only.

Results…

Results…1 2 (P=0.352) 2 3 (P=0.628) 3 4 (P=0.003)

Results… Attacking (P=0.102) Defensive (P=0.180) Defensive Patterns of Play (P=0.655) Neutral Patterns of Play (P=0.084)

Significant difference found in Attacking Patterns of Play KPI group (P=0.003)

Discussion Mid-tabled home teams do react to a losing, evolving match status.

Evolving match status chosen (0-1) affects pattern of play utilised? ‘Losing teams adopt a more attacking style in the final periods of a match in order to create

goal-scoring opportunities’ (Armatas et al, 2007)

Time constraint influence reaction? ‘Players push forwards to create goal-scoring opportunities when trailing in a match’.

(Reily, 1997) ‘The highest number of goals are scored between the 75th minute and 90th minute’.

(Acar et al, 2009)

Discussion… The results found are directed solely to ‘Attacking Patterns of Play’

(P=0.026), which could be explained by the evolving match status chosen. Results similar to Reily (1997); Armatas et al, (2007); Acar et al, 2009)

‘Direct Passing’ increases after a goal is conceded in the third quarter (45-67.5 minutes).

Supported by: ‘Possession of the ball in soccer was more in the attacking third than the defensive third when a team was losing’ (Lago, 2009)

Conflicting thoughts: ‘If teams were to increase their likelihood of scoring, they would need to involve a high number of short passes’ (Ali, 1988)

‘Goals after a long pass were scored only 25% of the time in high level matches’ (Hughes, 1990)

Discussion… Fluid Shape adopted by mid-tabled teams in final quarter. Supported by: ‘Losing teams push forward to create more goal-scoring opportunities’ (Redwood

Brown, 2008) Conflicting thoughts: ‘Eventual losing teams often concede more goals as they push forward to

create more opportunities’ (Armatas et al, 2007).

Pressing at a high intensity was utilised from conceding quarter to reaction quarter.

Supported by: ‘Players increase their intensity for a short duration if a change in evolving match status occurs’ Bloomfield et al, (2004)

Conflicting thoughts: ‘High intensity running, sprinting and distance covered all reduced in the second half from the first half’ (Bangsbo et al, 2006)

Discussion…

‘High Defensive Line’ utilised in reaction quarter 4 (67.5-90+ mins). Supported by: ‘Regaining possession in defensive areas led to a greater success in soccer’

(Carling et al, 2005)

Conflicting thoughts: ‘Pushing higher can result in an increased susceptibility to the counter attack’ (Reily, 1996)

Concluding Thoughts… Accept the alternative hypothesis and reject the null hypothesis.

Reaction limited to 67.5-90+ minute time period.

Teams adopt a greater attacking pattern of play in the final quarter of a match when attaining a losing, evolving match status in the 45-67.5 minute

Lack of significant difference in attacking KPI group (P=0.102) Success of this pattern of play yet to be desired.

Recommendations… Study shows that a losing, evolving match status influences playing patterns in

home mid-tabled teams.

Recognise the evolving match status changes how a team approaches the rest of the match.

Greater depth in pre-match opposition analysis.

Focus on different evolving match statuses.

Change in KPI’s and Grouping

Reflection… Searching for valid and relevant literature.

Ability to use new software effectively and build on existing knowledge of previously used software.

Recognition of problems and using initiative to actively seek help to solve them.

Greater determination and perseverance through tough times.

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