ANNVAL DATA AND VERIFICATION TABULATION · INTRODUCTION This is the third report of an annual series prepared by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to provide a source of summarized

NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC 4

'.

ANNVAL DATA AND VERIFICATION TABULATION

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES 1976

Paul J. Hebert and Staff, NHC

National Hurricane CenterMiami, FloridaMay 1977

927

UNITED STATESDEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEJuanita M. Kreps. Secretary

/ NATIONAL OCEANIC AND / N~tlOnJI Weather

ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Ser,.ce

Robert Y. White. AdminIstrator Ceoree P Clessman. Director

INTRODUCTION

This is the third report of an annual series prepared by the National

Hurricane Center (NHC) to provide a source of summarized data on Atlantic

It will not duplicate the narrative overview of thetropical cyclones.

hurricane season and the description of the individual storms, which will

continue to be published in the Monthly Weather Review.

In addition to data supplied by the National Weather Service, materials

have been furnished by the NOAA National Environmental Satellite Services (NESS)

Miami office, and the CARCAH (Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, all

Hurricanes).

OBJECTIVE FORECAST TECHNIQUES

The follo~ing tropical cyclo~e prediction models were used at the National

Hurricane Center for forecasting moJlon on an operational basis:

A stepwise screening regressionNHC-67 (Miller, Hill, Chase, 1968).

1.

model using predictors derived from the current and 24-hour old 1000,

700,

and 500 rob data, and includes persistence during the early fore-

cast periods.

A filtered barotropic model usin~SAN BAR (Sanders and Burpee, 1968).

2.

input data derived from the 1000 to 100 mb pressure weighted winds.

.The model requires the use of "bogus" data in data-void areas. The

system was modified by Pike, (1972) so that the initial wind fie1ri

near the storm would conform to the current storm motion.

An analog system using as a dataHURRAN (Hope and Neumann, 1970).3.base the tracks of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes dating

back to 1886

Stepwise multiple screening regression usingCLIPER (Neumann, 1972).

4.

the predictors derived from climatology and persistence.

A modified stepwise multipleNHC-Z2 (Neumann. Hope. Miller. I972).

5.

screening regression system wh~ch combines the NHC-67 concept and

the CLIPER system into a single model.

Similar in concept to the NHC-NHC-r3 (Neumann and Lawrence, 1973).6.72 except it also uses the "perfect prog" and Mas (model output statis-

tics) methods to introduce NMC (National Meteorological Center) numer-

ical prognostic data into the prediction equations.

A ten-level baroclinic model which~c MFM MODEL (Hovermale, 1975).7

uses a moving fine mesh (MFM) grid nested within the coarser NMC fixed

It is capable of predicting bothgrid primitive equation (PE) model.

track and intensity changes.

The National Hurricane Center uses the above models as guidance in the

The hurricane forecaster also makes extensive useformulation of its forecasts.

of analyses and prognoses produced by NMC and RCTM (Regional Center for Tropical

Meteorology) in Miami.

VERIFICATION

Verification statistics for the 1976 season are shown in Table 1 (Pelissier,

The initial position error in Table 1 is the difference between the

1975).

operational initial position and that determined during post analysis (best tra~k

The forecast displacement error is the vector difference between the

position).

forecast displacement and the actual displacement computed from best-trackpositions.

The la~dfall prediction error for the official forecasts is given

It is defined as the distance from the predicted landfall point.in Table 2.

made 24 hours prior to actual landfall, to the actual landfall point. In cases

where a storm either crossed an island or made landfall when predicted to remain

offshore,

the error was designated as the distance from the landfall point to

the nearest point on the forecast track.

2

A summary of 1976 North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics is given

in Table 3. Tracks of 1976 named storms are shown in Figure 1

The best track. initial. and forecast positions for 1976 named storms

are in Table 4, along with initial position and forecast errors.

Table 5 lists all center fix positions and intensity evaluations used

operationally at the National Hurricane Center during 1976. Fixes are in~I

chronological order, and include those obtained by aerial reconnaissance

penetrations and radar, satellite (Miami SFSS), and land-based radar.

Table 6 is an aerial reconnaissance summary for the 1976 season.

A number of vortex projiles constructed from data obtained by aerial

reconnaissance are shown in 'Figure 2. These profiles show win9s, temperatures,

dew-P?ints, D-values, and weather in the four quadrants of the storms at speci-

fied distances from the center out to 80 n.mi. They are produced operationally

.-The plotting model along with a diagram of theon the NHC Varian computer.

paths flown in obtaining the vortex profiles is given in Figure 3.

Graphs of the lowest central pressure vs. time for 1976 tropical cyclones

are in Figure 4

Daily SMS-1 satellite photographs of 1976 named tropical cyclones are in

Figure 5.

Selected radar photographs of Belle are in Figure 6.

3

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Ms. Dorothy Mixon and Ms. Wanda Lund, whoMain contributers were:

listed the center fixes in chronological order; Ms. Mary Watson, who did

the pressure-time graphs; Ms. Lilias Wilson, who typed the tables and

manuscript;

Dr. Joseph Pelissier, who computed the verification statistics;~

the NHC Data Automation Section, which furnished the vortex profiles; and

James Eskdale, who composited the satellite and radar photographs.

"

4

REFERENCES

Hope, J. R. and C. J. Neumann, 1970: "An Operational Technique forRelating the Movement of Existing Tropical Cyclones to P~stTracks," Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 98, No. 23, pp. 925-933.

Hovermale, J. B. 1975: First season storm movement characteristics ofthe NMC objective hurricane forecast model. Minutes of the NOAAHurricane Warning Conference, National Hurricane Center, CoralGables, Florida.

Miller, B. I., E. C. Hill and P. P. Chase, 1968: "Revised Techniquefor Forecasting Hurricane Motion by Statistical Methods, "MonthlyWea~her Rev_!ew. Vol. 96, No.8, pp. 540-548

Neumann, C. J., 1972: "An Alternate to the HURRAN Tropical CycloneForecast System", ~ Technical Memorandum NWS SR-62, 24 pp.

J. R. Hope and B. I. Miller, 1972: itA Statistical Method ofCombining Synoptic and Empirical Tropical Cyclone ~redictionSystems", BQM. Technical Memorandum NWS SR-63, 32 pp.

and M. B. Lawrence, 1973: "Statistical-Dynamical Prediction ofTropical Cyclone Motion (NHC-73)", ~ Technical Memorandum NWSSR-69, 34 pp.

Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane Track Prediction byAdjustment of the Initial Wind Field", NOAA Technical MemorandumNWS SR-66, 16 pp.

Sanders, F., and R. W. Burpee, 1968: "Experiments in Barotropic Hurri-cane Track Forecasting", Journal2!;.. Applied Meteorology, Vol. 7,No.3, pp. 313-323.

Pelissier.

J. M.. 1975: Minutes of the NOAA Hurricane Warning Conference.National Hurricane Center, Coral Gables, Florida.

...

.~

5

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

Tracks of 1976 tropical cyclones.Figure 1..

Vortex profiles, 1976 tropical cyclones.Figure 2.

Data plotting model and flight pattern flown in obtaining

vortex profiles.Figure 3.

Lowest pressure vs. time, 1976 tropical cyclonesFigure 4.

Daily satellite photographs of 1976 tropical storms andhurricanes.Figure 5.

Selected radar photographs of Belle.Figure 6.

Verification of 1976 tropical storm and hurricane forecastsFigures in parenthesis are the number of cases.

Table 1.

Landfall errors of 1976 tropical storms and hurricanesTable 2.

Summary of 1976 tropical cyclone statisticsTable 3.

Best track, initial and forecast positions, initial positionerror and forecast errors for 1976 tropical cyclones.

Table 4.

Center fix positions and intensity evaluations for 1976

tropical cyclones.Table 5.

Aerial Weather Reconnaissance summary for 1976 hurricane

season (Atlantic and Pacific).Table 6.

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PRESENT WEATHERWIND DIRECTIONWIND SPEED

Figure.3. D:1ta plotting model (bottom) and flight pattern fl~ (top)in obtaining vortex profiles.

24

TROP!C.l\l STORM ANNA

20 JULY -1 AUGUST 1976

-

-1010m~-wa: 1000:JU')U')wa:a. 990

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6-10 AUGUST 1976

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Lowest pres~ure vs. timel 197~ tropical cyclones.Figure 4.

25

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Figure 4 continued.

26

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21 AUGUST -4 SEPTEMBER 1976

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Figure 4 continued.

27

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34

Patuxent River.. Md.August 9, 1976 23302

Patuxent River.. !old.August 9,1976 22152

Cape Hatteras, N.C.August 9, 1976 12302

Cape Hatteras, N.C.August 9.. 1976 11002

Wilmington, N. C.August 9, 1976 10002

Wi1Jnington, N.C.August 9~ 1976 06002

Figure 6. Selected radar photographs of Belle.

35

Table 1. Verification of 1976 tropical storm and hurricane forecasts.

Figures in parenthesis are number of cases.

FORECAST DISPLAC~IENT ERRORS (N.MI.)12 HR 24 HR 48 HR 72 HR

INITIALPOSITION

ERROR (N.MI.)METHOD

127(144)

285(113)

430(85)

OFFICIAL 21(159)

58(159)

531(89)

NHC-67 17(138)

63(138)

136(130)

325(120)

427(93)

20(162)

61(162)

150(146)

309(117)

NHC-72

265(55)

369(45)

NHC-73 18(70)

56(70)

131(66)

554(31)

145(50)

385(41)

HURRAN 19(54)

57(54)

457(94)

20(163)

61(163)

141(147)

323(118)

CLIPER

136(68)

277(56)

399(44)

SANBAR 19(72)

60(72)

Table 2. Landfall errors of 1976 tropical storms and hurricanes.

LANDFALL DAYSTORM NAME FORECAST ERROR

(N .MI.)

..~

Jones Beach, Long Island, NYAugust 10 30Belle

Folly Beach, SC5August 20Dottie

36

Table 3. Summary of 1976 Tropical Cyclone Statistics

MAXIMUMSUSTAINED

WINDS(KT)

LOWESTPRESSURE

(MB)

u.s.DAMAGE

($ MILLION)NO. NAME CLASS DATES DEATHS

1.

ANNA T JULY 28-AUG. 6 40 999

2. BELLE H

AUG.

6 -10 105 957 100 U.S., 5

3. CANDICE H

AUG.

18 -24 80 964

4. DOTTIE T

AUG.

17 -21 45 996 MINOR U.S., 4

AZORES, 681

5.

EMMY H

AUG.

20 -SEPT. 4 90 974

6. FRANCES H AUG. 27 -SEPT. 7 100 963

7. GLORIA H SEPT. 26 -OCT. 4 90 970

8. HOLLY H

OCT.

22 -28 65 990

1DEATHS CAUSED BY PLANE CRASH AT LAJES DURING HEIGHT OF STORM.

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,:tII

LEGEND FOR TABLE 5

Key to fix characteristics

SATELLITE:

* **, visible or infrared,Classification confidence, location and confidence

tempted to vary up or down by ~ T or S number.2 =

3 might vary up or down by 1 T or S number, or more.=

**well defined eye with certain picture registration.1 -

well defined eye with uncertain picture registration.2 =

well defined circulation center with certain picture registration.3 =

well defined circulation center with uncertain picture registration.4 =

PQorly defined circulation center with certain picture registration.5 =

poorly defined circulaflon center with uncertain picture registration.6 =

RECOt-TN11SSANCE:

Navigational Accuracy/Meteorological Accuracy

RADAR :

U.

S. radar station identifiers

HAT = Cape Hatteras, NC

Wilmington,

NC

ORF = Norfolk, VA.ACY = Atlantic City, NJ

NHK = Patuxent River, MD

= New York City, NY

; Daytona Beach, FL

= Charleston, SC

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Documents

ANNVAL DATA AND VERIFICATION TABULATION · INTRODUCTION This is the third report of an annual series prepared by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to provide a source of summarized