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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 1st Coal Working Group
Mike Mellish, Economist Diane Kearney, Operations Research Analyst August 2, 2012| Washington, D.C.
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Issues/assumptions for AEO2013
2
• Compressed AEO modeling and production schedule
• Re-coding of coal model from Fortran to AIMMS
• Extension to 2040
• Current laws and regulations
- Cross State Air Pollution Rule
- Mercury and Air Toxics Standards
- State Renewable Portfolio Standards
• 3% higher cost of capital for new coal plants (including coal-based synthetic liquid plants) and capital investment projects at existing coal-fired power plants
• Expect stronger outlook for exports in AEO2013
• Review assumptions and modeling for coal-to-liquids and coal- and biomass-to-liquids
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Preliminary AEO2013: Planned Coal-Fired Capacity Additions (megawatts)
3 Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, “Annual Electric Generator Report”
FACILITY CODE PLANT NAME
GENERATOR ID STATE
PLANT TYPE
ENERGY SOURCE
START YEAR
START MONTH
SUMMER CAPABILITY
56068 Elm Road Generating Station 2 WI PC BIT 2011 1 633.86195 John Twitty Energy Center ST2 MO PC SUB 2011 1 2796071 Trimble County 2 KY PC BIT 2011 1 731.96180 Oak Grove OG2 TX PC LIG 2011 4 825
60 Whelan Energy Center 2 NE PC SUB 2011 6 22556609 Dry Fork Station 01 WY PC SUB 2011 11 40556671 Longview Power LLC MKA01 WV PC BIT 2011 12 700
56808 Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center 1 VA PC BIT 2012 5 58555856 Prairie State Generatng Station PC1 IL PC BIT 2012 6 800
2721 Cliffside 6 NC PC BIT 2012 8 8251004 Edwardsport ST,CT1,CT2 IN IGCC BIT 2012 10 586.1
56564 John W Turk Jr Power Plant 1 AR PC SUB 2012 11 60055856 Prairie State Generatng Station PC2 IL PC BIT 2012 12 80055360 Two Elk Generating Station GEN1 WY PC WC 2013 1 27556611 Sandy Creek Energy Station S01 TX PC SUB 2013 2 936.5
7570 Spiritwood 1 ND PC LIG 2013 9 6257037 Kemper County IGCC Project 1A,1B,1C MS IGCC LIG 2014 5 593
3799.76062.69862.3
20112012-2014
Total
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Planned coal-fired capacity retirements in the electric power sector by coal demand region, 2011-2035
4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
AEO2012 AEO2013 Preliminary
gigawatts, net summer
Note: Planned retirements represent those reported to EIA by generators in the electric power sector. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case; and EIA, Form EIA-860, “Annual Electric Generator Report”
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Coal production by region, 1970-2035
5
million short tons
Appalachia
Interior
Western
Total
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Projections History 2010
Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report. Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case; and Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012.
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Average Minemouth Coal Price by Region, 1980-2035
6
2010 dollars per short ton
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Note: Historical price data for Wyoming’s PRB is represented by data for Campbell county. Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report; Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case.
Western (including WY, PRB)
Interior
Appalachia
WY, Powder River Basin (PRB)
U.S. Average
Projections History 2010
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Coal production, 2035 (and 2010) (million short tons)
7
233 7 (14)
62
42 (29) 1 (2) 140 (110)
182 (130)
88 (186)
21 (20)
58 (39)
37 (29) 39 (46)
514 (428)*
2 (2)** 81 (44)
U.S. Total: 1,212 (1,084)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case
* Includes production from all mines in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.
** Includes production from mines in both Alaska and Washington.
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Average annual growth in coal mining labor productivity for selected supply regions (percent)
8
Coal Supply Region 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2035 Northern Appalachia 5.4 5.5 -2.2 -1.3
Central Appalachia 7.3 4.4 -5.9 -3.9
Eastern Interior 4.8 3.7 -1.4 -0.7
Gulf Lignite 2.6 2.4 -3.5 -2.6
Dakota Lignite 6.0 1.0 -2.7 -1.0
Western Montana 4.6 2.0 -2.8 -1.3
WY, Northern Powder River Basin 7.5 3.2 -2.9 -1.9
WY, Southern Powder River Basin 7.2 4.9 -2.5 -1.9
Rocky Mountain 7.8 5.5 -3.5 -2.0
U.S. Average 7.1 6.2 -2.3 -1.3
Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Report; Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Coal consumption by sector, 1970-2035
9
million short tons
Electricity
Other Coal-to-Liquids
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AEO2012 Early Release: Total
AEO2012 Reference Case: Total
Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case.
History Projections 2010
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Coal Exports by region, 2010-2035
10
million short tons
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Interior
Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012
Source: 2010: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Coal Distribution Report; Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case; and Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012.
Appalachia
Western
Total
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2035
11
billion kilowatthours
Coal
Petroleum
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Renewables
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors. Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review; Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case; and Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012.
Projections History 2010
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Average Delivered Price of Coal and Natural Gas to the Electric Power Sector, 1980-2035
12
2010 dollars per million Btu
Natural Gas
High Technically Recoverable
Resource
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012
Source: History: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review and Electric Power Monthly; Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case; and Short Term Energy Outlook, July 2012.
History Projections
Coal
2010
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Electricity Generation Shares by Fuel, 2007-2035
13
49
22 19
9
45
24 20
10
38
27
20
14
38
28
18 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewable
2007 2010 2015 2035
percent
Note: Includes generation from plants in both the electric power and end-use sectors Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Coal-fired generating capacity in the electric power sector by coal demand region, 2010 and 2035
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70 2010 AEO2012 Early Release: 2035 AEO2012 Reference: 2035
gigawatts, net summer
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Early Release and Reference Case
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
15
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Reference Case
Electric Net Summer Generating Capacity by Fuel, 2007-2035 (gigawatts)
Fuel 2007 2010 2015 2020 2035
Coal 311 318 286 281 285 Electric Power Sector 308 313 282 275 275 End-Use Sectors 4 4 4 7 10 Natural Gas 329 350 373 383 479 Petroleum 115 109 91 91 89 Nuclear Power 100 101 104 111 111 Renewable Sources 109 134 163 168 201 Other (includes pumped storage) 25 25 25 25 25 Total 990 1,036 1,042 1,059 1,190
Coal Team, Coal Working Group Washington, DC, August 2, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
For more information
16
Contact Information
Mike Mellish and Diane Kearney U.S. Energy Information Administration Office of Energy Analysis Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis Coal and Uranium Analysis Team
[email protected], (202) 586-2136
[email protected], (202) 586-2415
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
