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Physics 190E: Energy & Society

Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 1

Tuesday, September 25th….

Announcements

• Homework 3 due on Thursday - again this should be handed

in as a physical hard copy…

• I will be posting suggested topics for the first paper soon.

The first (3-4 page) paper will be due on Thursday October

11th.


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 2

What’s in the news…… Two recent New York Times editorials

The first highlights high level diplomatic discussions this week, first at the

U.N. General Assembly in NYC and then separately in Washington on

climate change and limiting greenhouse gas emissions…

Discussion questions…

• Do you think governments need to agree on mandatory reductions, or is a nation

by nation “voluntary” framework sufficient?

• Should the Bush administration allow states to proceed with their own rules on

greenhouse gas emissions, or will this cause too much chaos?


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 3

The second editorial focuses on the drawbacks of corn based ethanol as an alternative fuel in

the context of the energy bill now before Congress.

Discussion questions…..

• What questions do we need to be asking about corn based ethanol as an alternative fuel?

• What are the alternatives to this alternative?

• What are the political forces pushing for corn based ethanol?


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 4

We’re talking about fossil fuels - oil, natural gas & coal - and also tar sands

& shale oil. We’re going to go through each of these in turn and talk about

such things as …..

• Where are they found & in what quantities?

• How do we make use of them?

• What are their future prospects?

Start with oil. We’ve learned that oil formed under ancient sea

beds from the geologically compressed & heated remains of

marine organisms… Where do we find it today?

Chapter 12


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 5

First, some history - ASTM, the international standards organization has

compiled a historical timeline of the use of petroleum. Some of the early

entries provide an interesting historical perspective….

http://www.astm.org/COMMIT/D02/to1899_index.html

ca. 4000 BC On the banks of the Euphrates River in an area that

will become known as Iraq, archeological exploration finds the siteof an oil seep known locally as “the fountains of pitch,” whereasphalt is quarried for use as mortar between building stones.Asphalt is also used as a waterproofing agent for baths, potteryand boats. The term ”petroleum” comes from “petros” (Greek forstone or rock) and “oleum” (Latin for oil). An ancient term forpetroleum is “rock oil.”

347 AD Oil wells are drilled in China

up to 800 feet [240 m] deep usingbits attached to bamboo poles.

The oil was burned to heat brine, evaporating

the water & leaving behind salt.


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 6

In the United States….

1859 Edwin L. Drake opens the firstcommercially successful oil well in the UnitedStates drilled for the sole purpose of findingoil. The Drake Well is a 70-foot well located onthe edge of the town of Titusville, Pa. Oil isshipped in 42-gallon barrels. The 42-gallonbarrel was established in 1482 by King EdwardIV as the standard for the packing of fish. Thedrilling of the Drake Well begins aninternational search for petroleum.

Edwin Drake

At the time, the main use of crude oil was for kerosene,

which to modern chemists is a mixture of various types

of carbon chains containing 12-15 carbon atoms each.

The distillation of Kerosene from crude oil was developed in Poland in 1856

(previously it had been made from asphalt, another fossil fuel), although such

processes were also known in 9th century Iraq.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerosene


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 7

The widespread availability of cheaper kerosene

was the principal factor in the precipitous decline

in the whaling industry in the mid- to late 19th

century, as the leading product of whaling was oil

for lamps. (wikipedia)

Kerosene for lighting was similarly phased out by

electrification, and oil was in danger of being without a

market. But around this time came the automobile…..

and oil production became quite an important matter.

1919 Ford model T

California oil field, 1938


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 8

Early U.S. oil production

･1859: 2,000ﾊbarrels･1869: 4,215,000ﾊbarrels･1879: 19,914,146ﾊbarrels

･1889: 35,163,513ﾊbarrels･1899: 57,084,428ﾊbarrels･1906: 126,493,936ﾊbarrels

U.S. oil production steadily rose. Small oil

deposits of Pennsylvania were quickly superceded

by much larger finds in Texas, Oklahoma and

California.

Ultimately, U.S. oil production peaked

at slightly under 10 million barrels per

day in 1970 (as predicted by Hubbert in

the 1950’s).

U.S. oil production has now declined to

roughly 1/2 of its peak value. In the

meantime, demand for oil in the U.S. has

continued to increase… Since 1948 the U.S.

has imported more than 1/2 its petroleum

supplies. Today we import about 60% of the

petroleum we use, about 12.2 million bbl/day.

Where does all this oil come from?


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 9

Challenge questions….

• Can you name the top 5 oil producing nations?

• How about the top 10?

• Can you name the top 5 & 10 oil consuming nations?

• What are the top 5 importers of oil?

• What about the top 5 exporters of oil?

This gets you thinking about what you know about the world….


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 10Source: CIA world factbook 2006

Countries ranked by

oil production


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 11

Countries ranked by

oil consumption

U.S. consumption is

25% of the world

total


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 12

Production & consumption

together with export &

import

Where do U.S. oil

imports come from?

Can you name the top

5 countries?


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 13

U.S. oil imports come from….

We don’t hear about it so much, but the U.S. actually imports more oil from Canada and

Mexico, than from Saudi Arabia. Also, although the U.S. has a lot of conflict with the

government of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, we’re still getting a good deal of our oil imports

from that country…


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 14

The picture for the future depends on oil reserves….

Graphs from Energy Information Administration, figures in billions of barrels

“Oil and Gas Journal” and “World Oil” are two publication services that keep track

of global oil reserves. As we’ve noted before, there are different standards for

counting reserves. Hence, the disagreements in some of the regions. Both place

over 1/2 the world’s proven reserves in the Middle East.

Recall that the world uses about 100 million bbl/day, or 36.5 billion bbl/year. If it was

straightforward to extract all the oil from a region, these figures for the Middle East

would represent 20 years of world energy usage.


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 15

Saudi Arabia has stated reserves of 260 billion

barrels of oil (source: Oil and Gas Journal via EIA)

and produced about 10.7 million barrels per day in

2006.

Saudi Aramco (the national oil company) has

announced plans to increase capacity to 12.5 million

barrels/day by 2009 and 15 million barrels/day by

2020. Such production increases are necessary for

global oil production to keep pace with increasing

demand.

But…. There is heated debate about

whether this can be done.

Aramco officials state that Saudi reserves have

been substantially understated and that ultimately

another 200 billion barrels will be added to their

reserve numbers. They claim that once the

infrastructure is in place, that the kingdom can

maintain production at 15 million bbl/day for 50

years.

(http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Saudi_Arabia/Oil.html)

Let’s focus on the world’s largest oil producer….


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 16

This discussion gets very detailed….

Saudi Arabia’s largest oil field (the world’s

largest as well) is called Ghawar, covering 1260

sq. miles. It holds about 25% of Saudi reserves

and accounts for 50% of its daily production.

Ghawar is one of only 4 oil fields in the world

producing more than 1 million bbl/day. The others

are in Mexico, Kuwait and China and are all closer to

1 million bbl/day than to Ghawar’s 5 million bbl/day.

Ghawar accounts for about 5.5% of global daily

production.

The Ghawar field is old, brought online in 1951. It

has produced 55 billion bbl to date, with 70 billion

bbl estimated to be still in the ground (this figure

is itself quite uncertain). It appears that Ghawar is

somewhere neat the halfway point of oil

extraction, which raises the possibility of a steep

decline. Clearly, Saudi Arabia would be hard

pressed to compensate for such a decline….

See - “Trouble in the World's Largest Oil Field-

Ghawar” by G.R. Morton,

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/ghawar.htm


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 17

Some oil analysts see signs of trouble for Ghawar’s rate of production…..

It has long been Saudi Aramco’s practice to inject sea water

into the Ghawar in order to maintain pressure in the field.

Consequently, a good deal of water gets pumped back out

along with the oil .

The fraction of water coming out of the pumps is known as the

water “cut”. Aramco does not release detailed figures on the

oil “cut” in particular fields, but analysts glean information

from the comments of various current, or former, Aramco

officials.

Current estimates are that roughly 7 million bbl/day of sea

water are pumped into Ghawar to extract roughly 5 million

bbl/day of oil, with the oil cut at the well head in the range

of 30-50%.


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 18

Where can the world look for new oil supplies?

One region that is often discussed…..

Caspian Sea region ….. Azerbaijan,

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and

parts of Russia & Iran.

The EIA states, “the Caspian Sea region,

including the Sea and the states surrounding it, is

important to world energy markets because of its

potential to become a major oil and natural gas

exporter over the next decade.”

“Estimates of the Caspian Sea region's proved crude oil reserves vary

widely by source. For this reason, EIA estimates proven oil reserves in

the region range between 17 and 49 billion barrels, which is comparable

to OPEC members Qatar on the low end, and Libya on the high end. In

2006, regional oil production is expected to total 2.3 million bbl/d,

comparable to annual production from South America's second largest

oil producer, Brazil. During 2007, EIA expects over 200,000 bbl/d of

annual production growth, comprised mostly of growth from Azerbaijan.

By 2010, EIA expects the countries of the Caspian Sea Region to

produce between 2.9 and 3.8 million bbl/d, which would exceed annual

production from South America's largest oil producer, Venezuela. “

(Source: EIA)

Major production

region, but not

another Middle

East.


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 19

Caspian Sea issues…The area is land locked. Oil (& natural gas) must be

transported via pipeline to shipping ports. (Oil is physical stuff

and it is nontrivial to move it around…)

EIA comments, “A lack of

export routes kept large-

scale development of oil and

gas resources to a minimum

during the 1990s and early

2000s. Now, with the Baku-

T’bilisi Ceyhan (BTC)

pipeline online, the Caspian

Sea’s oil resources will

reach world markets and will

avoid the crowded

Bosporus choke point.”


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 20

While we’re talking about the physical

movement of oil….

According to EIA, 2/3 of the world’s oil trade

moves by tanker around the globe. There are a

number of high traffic “choke points” for oil

shipping, which might be temporarilly blocked

either intentionally or through shipping

accidents.

The Bosporus straight is 30km long and only 700

meters wide (at its narrowest), making it the

world’s narrowest straight used for international

navigation. It connects the Black Sea with the Sea

of Marmara and then via the Dardenelles straight to

the Aegean and Mediterranian seas.

Most of Russian oil exports leave via the Black Sea.

In total, about 3.1 Million bbl/day pass through the

Bosporus. The Turkish government is very

concerned about oil spills due to overcrowding of the

straights.


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 21

More Caspian issues…. The environment…The Caspian sea

is actually a salt water lake. Water

flows in, but not out.

“With oil and gas production and marine transport expected to increase in coming

years, the risk of oil spills and other leakages will increase. The Caspian is also a

closed sea, meaning that pollution can remain in the area for decades. Petrochemical

and refining complexes on the Absheron peninsula in Azerbaijan are major sources of

land-based pollution, and discharges and spills from oil and natural gas drilling--both

onshore and in the sea itself--have had serious impacts on the environment. Untreated

waste from the Volga River, which half the population of Russia and most of its heavy

industry drains its sewage, empties directly into the Caspian Sea, while pesticides and

chemicals from agricultural run-off are threats to the Sea's flora and fauna. Overfishing,

especially of the prized sturgeon, has caused a dramatic decline in fish stocks.

Ecologists have directly related the death of seals, fish, and birds in the sea and the

disappearance of unique plants to oil company activities.” (EIA)


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 22

Also regional conflicts…. threaten safety of pipeline routes

Corruption plagues many of the local regimes in the region. How much the

(often impoverished) people of the area will profit from their nation’s oil and

natural gas wealth remains to be seen….


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 23

We are not alone in looking outside our borders for oil.

There is the whole list of oil importing nations, including in

particular…..

Fueling the dragon: China's race into the oil market

http://www.iags.org/china.htm

• China’s oil consumption is growing at 7.5% per year,

7 times faster than the U.S.

• The number of automobiles is growing at 19% per year

• China currently imports 32% of its oil and has

relatively small domestic oil reserves

• 58% of China’s oil imports today come from the

Middle East, projected to rise to 70% by 2015

Info from…

Obviously, there will be geopolitical conflict

over remaining oil reserves in the coming

decades….


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 24

One take on the issue…(from Fueling the dragon: China's race into the oil market)

Implications for U.S.-China relations U.S.-China

relations are influenced by a wide array of issuesfrom Taiwan to trade relations and human rights. Butundoubtedly access to Middle East oil will become akey issue in the relations between the two powers.Clearly, in the short term, China recognizes that itsenergy security is increasingly dependent oncooperation with the U.S., rather than competitionwith it. China would like to maintain good relationswith the U.S. and enjoy the economic benefitsderived from such cooperation. But this inclinationis balanced by the feeling among many Chineseleaders that the U.S. seeks to dominate thePersian Gulf in order to exercise control over itsenergy resources and that it tries to containChina's aspirations in the region. The U.S. istherefore considered a major threat to China'slong-term energy security.


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 25

Michael Klare,

Five College Professor of Peace and

World Security Studies based at

Hampshire College.

The geopolitics of oil and the possible military consequences are

the subject an entire course (taught by someone else!). Someone

like Michael Klare, Five College Professor of Peace and World

Security Studies, whose most recent books is “Blood and Oil, the

Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on

Imported Oil.”

Klare summarizes the implications of the issues we’ve been

discussing, “Demand is rising around the world; supplies are

not growing fast enough to satisfy global requirements; and

the global struggle to gain control over whatever supplies

are available has become more intense and fractious.

Because the first and second of these factors are not likely

to abate in the years ahead, the third can only grow more

pronounced.” The Intensifying Global Struggle for Energy

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/print/2400/Tomgram%253A%2520%2520Mike

%2520Klare%2520on%2520Our%2520Energy-Stretched%2520Planet

Klare points to the fact that access to energy supplies is now regarded

as a critical issue of national security by nations around the globe.

He also points to many friction points around the globe that

are beneath the radar screen for most of us….


Fall 2007

Lecture 7 - 26

On the other hand…

China has its own organizations working toward a sustainable energy solution.

The China Sustainable

Energy Program states the

problem facing their society

as…..

The David and Lucile Packard Foundation

The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation

Funded by

http://www.efchina.org/FHome.do

Documents

Announcements ¥ Homework 3 due on Thursday - again this ...people.umass.edu/kastor/energy/pdflectures/Lecture-7.pdf · oil ÒcutÓ in particular Þelds, but analysts glean information