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Monday, June 27, 2016
Currency Daily Report
Monday, November 07, 2016
CONTENTS
Market Overview
Daily Analysis with fundamental and technical outlook
US Dollar
Indian Rupee
Euro
Sterling Pound
Japanese Yen
Important events for the day
Angel Broking Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency SEBI Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500
Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company
does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation
to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any
purpose without prior permission from “Angel Broking Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]
Monday, June 27, 2016
Currency Daily Report
Monday, November 07, 2016
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS (% change) as on 4-Nov-16
INDICES LAST CHANGE WOW MOM
NIFTY 8456.0 -0.34 -2.1 -2.9
SENSEX 27381.7 -0.18 -2.0 -2.6
DJIA 17930.7 -0.16 -1.3 -1.7
S&P 2085.2 -0.2 1.0 1.2
FTSE 6693.3 -1.4 -61.7 -5.3
KOSPI 1983.8 0.1 -2.0 -3.4
BOVESPA 58497.8 0.2 -8.3 -3.5
NIKKEI 16905.4 16.8 -0.1 -0.7
Source: Reuters
COMMODITY HIGHLIGHTS (% change) as on 4-Nov-16
INDICES LAST CHANGE WOW MOM
NYMEX CRUDE - $/BBL 44.66 0.0 -8.3 -11.5
COMEX GOLD - $/OZ 1296.70 -0.4 1.7 3.1
COMEX SILVER - $/OZ 18.66 1.5 6.0 7.7
LME COPPER (3M) -$/TONNE 4944.00 -0.3 2.1 -17.3
Source: Reuters
CURRENCY HIGHLIGHTS (% change) as on 4-Nov-16
CURRENCY LAST CHANGE WOW MOM
DX 97.31 0.11 -1.05 0.6
USDINR 66.72 -0.09 0.08 0.0
EURUSD 1.1102 -0.01 1.08 -0.4
GBPUSD 1.2452 -0.06 2.2 -1.3
USDJPY 103.3 0.32 -1.3 -0.6
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – USDINR
Source: Reuters
Daily INR= 10-10-2016 - 03-11-2016 (GMT)
Cndl, INR=, 03-11-2016, 66.7683, 66.7879, 66.6399, 66.7450,
-0.0065, (-0.01%)
Price
/USD
66.5
66.6
66.7
66.8
66.9
66.7450
10 17 24 31October 2016 Nov 16
MARKET OVERVIEW
Asian markets are trading positive owing to clearance of potential
criminal charges by the Federal Bureau of Investigation against
the presidential candidate Hillary Clinton for using her private
email server. This has boosted the chance of Clinton’s victory in
tomorrow’s elections.
US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)
The US Dollar Index traded lower by more than 1 percent in the
last week. Reason behind the weakness could be attributed to the
disappointing release of economic datasets from the nation along
with the rising fears of US Presidential Elections. Both ADP and
Non-Farm Employment change came on a weaker note. Non-
Manufacturing PMI plunged to 54.8 levels from 57.1 in Oct’16.
Factory Orders and Prelim Unit Labor Costs declined by 0.3
percent in Oct’16.
Moreover, the prospect of a December’16 rate hike indication
from the Federal Reserve in Nov’16 policy meet went unnoticed;
all thanks to the upcoming US Presidential Elections. News that
the FBI planned to reopen investigations into Hillary Clinton email
debacle kept the markets in jitters as world markets expected a
Clinton victory at the polls next week.
US Dollar Index made a weekly low of 96.94 and closed at 97.09
levels on Friday.
INDIAN RUPEE (USDINR) The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.08 percent in the last week
owing to persistent buying of the greenback by importers and
banks. Sensex and Nifty ended in red tracking losses in Asian,
American and European markets as investors remain cautious
ahead of the US Presidential Elections. Sentiment remained
downbeat due to sustained selling by foreign funds and retail
investors on the domestic bourses which affected the INR.
For the month of November 2016, FII outflows in equities totaled
at Rs. 1504.42 crores ($225.07 million) as on 4th November’16.
Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 45482.30 crores
($6835.26 million) as on 4th
November’16.
Indian Rupee made a weekly low of 66.79 and closed at 66.79
levels on Friday.
OUTLOOK
USDINR is likely to appreciate tracking gains in Asian market
equities after the FBI dropped charges against Democrat Hillary
Clinton thereby boosting the chance of Clinton’s victory in
tomorrow’s elections.
Technical Outlook valid for 7-Nov-16
Currency Futures Trend S1 S2 R1 R2
USDINR Nov’16 (NSE) Sideways 66.75 66.60 67.05 67.15
Monday, June 27, 2016
Currency Daily Report
Monday, November 07, 2016
EURO (EURUSD)
Euro currency traded higher by 1.08 percent in the last week; all
thanks to the lower DX in the overseas markets. Moreover, robust
release of economic datasets from the Euro area has also infused
positive sentiments in the markets thereby boosting the demand
for the shared currency. Health of the Spanish manufacturing
sector improved at a stronger rate during October’16 amid faster
rises in output and new orders. Moreover, there has been modest
growth in economy of the 19-country Euro-zone in the third
quarter despite BREXIT concerns.
Not only this, even inflation rate of Euro-zone came better than
the forecast. It hit a more than two-year high of 0.5 percent in
October’16 as prices for goods and services rose a tad faster. Even
the manufacturing and service sector of Euro-zone’s two
powerhouses i.e. Germany and France increased to more than
forecasted levels. Moreover, weakness in the DX added to Euro’s
strength.
OUTLOOK
EURINR is expected to trade lower a slack of important economic
datasets form the nation will keep the trading volumes a bit light.
Moreover, tomorrow’s US Presidential elections will prompt the
traders to play safe which will keep the shared currency a bit
pressurized.
Technical Outlook valid for 7-Nov-16
Currency Futures Trend S1 S2 R1 R2
EURINR Nov’16 (NSE) Sideways 74.00 73.70 74.50 74.70
STERLING POUND (GBPUSD)
Sterling pound traded higher by 2 percent in the last week as
markets discounted the release of BOE monetary policy. The
policymakers kept the bank rate at 0.25 percent and expect impact
of Sterling on inflation to be temporary and offsetting it fully with
higher rates would be too costly. The committee also said that
weaker Sterling reflected market view that UK's future trade with
EU may be less open than expected.
Moreover, there was a discussion in the High Court yesterday
about allowing the government to trigger Article 50 without
consulting Parliament which turned down. The High Court has
ruled in a landmark decision by not giving the power to the
government to trigger Article 50 without a parliamentary vote.
OUTLOOK
Sterling Pound is expected to trade lower as recent strength in the
currency will prompt the traders to book profits.
Technical Outlook valid for 7-Nov-16
Currency Futures Trend S1 S2 R1 R2
GBPINR Nov’16 (NSE) Sideways 83.30 82.90 83.90 84.20
Technical Chart – EURINR
Source: Reuters
French Flash Manufacturing PMI surged to 51.3 in
Oct’16 from previous months 49.7.
German Flash Manufacturing PMI surged to 55.1 in
Oct’16 from previous months 54.3.
German Ifo Business Climate surged to 110.5 in
Oct’16 from previous months 109.5.
Spanish Unemployment Rate declined to 18.9
percent in Oct’16 from previous months 20 percent.
Technical Chart – GBP/INR
Source: Reuters
Prelim GDP for quarter ending September’16 surge
more than the forecasted levels by 0.3 percent.
Daily EURINR= 13-10-2016 - 03-11-2016 (GMT)
Cndl, EURINR=,
03-11-2016, 74.1100, 74.1600, 73.8700, 73.9200,
-0.2300, (-0.31%)
Price
INR
72.4
72.8
73.2
73.6
7473.9200
13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28 31 01 02 03October 2016 Nov 16
Daily GBPINR=R 11-10-2016 - 03-11-2016 (GMT)
Cndl, GBPINR=R, 03-11-2016, 82.104, 83.098, 82.078, 82.770,
+0.686, (+0.84%)
Price
INR
81
81.5
82
82.5
82.770
11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28 31 01 02 03October 2016 Nov 16
Monday, June 27, 2016
Currency Daily Report
Monday, November 07, 2016
JAPANESE YEN (JPY/USD) Japanese Yen appreciated by 1 percent in the last week after the
Federal Bureau of Investigation started examining more emails in
an inquiry into Hillary Clinton's use of a private server which
prompted the traders to play safe and move towards safe-haven
assets like Japanese Yen.
After this event a new poll from ABC/Washington Post showed
Republican candidate Donald Trump leading the US presidential
race. The possibility of a victory for Republican Party nominee
Donald Trump in next week’s US Presidential election has kept
the global markets in jitters.
OUTLOOK
JPYINR is likely to appreciate as weak DX along with the rising
fears of US Presidential Elections will keep the market sentiment
a bit negative thereby boosting the demand for safe-haven Yen.
Technical Outlook valid for 7-Nov-16
Currency Futures Trend S1 S2 R1 R2
JPYINR Nov’16 (NSE) Sideways 64.80 64.60 65.30 65.60
Technical Chart – JPY/INR
Source: Reuters
Household Spending declined by 2.1 percent in
September’16 from previous month’s fall of 4.6
percent.
Inflation rate declined by 0.4 percent in
September’16 from previous months -0.5 percent.
Daily JPYINR=R 06-10-2016 - 01-11-2016 (GMT)
Cndl, JPYINR=R,
01-11-2016, 63.5974, 63.7055, 63.4255, 63.5899,
-0.0075, (-0.01%)
Price
INR
63.2
63.6
64
64.4
63.5899
06 07 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28 31 01October 2016
Economic indicators to be released on 7-Nov-16
INDICATOR COUNTRY TIME (IST) ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS IMPACT
German Factory Orders m/m Euro 12:30pm - 0.2% 1.0% Medium
Halifax HPI m/m UK 2:00pm - 0.3% 0.1% Medium
Eurogroup Meetings Euro All Day - - - Medium
Monday, June 27, 2016
Currency Daily Report
Monday, November 07, 2016
Research Team
Heena Imtiaz Naik
Research Associate
Currency
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104
Prathamesh Mallya
Chief Analyst
Non-agri Commodity & Currency
(022) 3935 8134 Extn :6134
Harsh Rawat
Technical Analyst-Currency
(022) 3935 8141 Extn: 6141
Kaynat Chainwala
Research Analyst
(022) 3935 8136 Extn :6136
Thank You