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CMAQ PERFORMANCE AND ASSESSMENT OF THE TRANSBOUNDARY INFLUENCES DURING LONG-TERM MODELLING IN ONTARIO. Andrei Chtcherbakov, Robert Bloxam, David Yap, Duncan Fraser, Neville Reid, Sunny Wong Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Toronto, Canada 3rd Annual Models-3 User's Conference - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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CMAQ PERFORMANCE AND ASSESSMENT OF THE
TRANSBOUNDARY INFLUENCES DURING LONG-TERM MODELLING IN ONTARIO
Andrei Chtcherbakov, Robert Bloxam, David Yap, Duncan Fraser,
Neville Reid, Sunny Wong
Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Toronto, Canada
3rd Annual Models-3 User's Conference
October 18-20, 2004Chapel Hill, NC
Modelling Approach
The modelling has been done for the May through September 1998 period.
The modelling was done for a base case and then with Ontario’s anthropogenic emissions shut off.
Evaluation of the modelling results ( base case) for ozone and PM2.5 were made in 12 major Ontario communities.
Assessment of transboundary influences were made both during high concentration episodes and on cleaner days.
Evaluation of CMAQ Performance
• Analysis of time series and frequency distributions for modelled and observed data in each subdomain separately for every month
• Detailed investigation of modelled/observed discrepancies ( backtrajectory analysis, satellite images, etc.)
• Analysis of chemical composition of PM2.5
• Analysis of correlation between observed/modelled data
Time series of ozone concentrations , GTA______ - modelled ______ - observed
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1-May 6-May 11-May 16-May 21-May 26-May 31-May
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1-Jun 6-Jun 11-Jun 16-Jun 21-Jun 26-Jun
01020304050
60708090
100
1-Jul 6-Jul 11-Jul 16-Jul 21-Jul 26-Jul 31-Jul0
10
20
30
40
50
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80
90
1-Aug 6-Aug 11-Aug 16-Aug 21-Aug 26-Aug 31-Aug
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1-Sep 6-Sep 11-Sep 16-Sep 21-Sep 26-Sep
O
Time series of PM2.5 concentrations, GTA ______ - modelled ______ - observed
May June
July August
September
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1-May 6-May 11-May 16-May 21-May 26-May 31-May
0
10
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50
60
1-Jun 6-Jun 11-Jun 16-Jun 21-Jun 26-Jun
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1-Jul 6-Jul 11-Jul 16-Jul 21-Jul 26-Jul 31-Jul0
10
20
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40
50
60
1-Aug 6-Aug 11-Aug 16-Aug 21-Aug 26-Aug 31-Aug
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1-Sep 6-Sep 11-Sep 16-Sep 21-Sep 26-Sep
Frequency distribution of ozone, GTA - modelled - observed
May June
July August
September
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
5
10
15
20
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45
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
5
10
15
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40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
05
101520253035404550556065
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Frequency distribution of PM2.5, GTA - modelled - observed
May June
July August
September
05
10
15202530
354045
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
05
10
15202530
354045
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
05
10
15202530
354045
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
05
10
15202530
354045
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
O3 and PM2.5 time series, GTA, July
O3 time series, GTA; R=0.85
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1-Jul 6-Jul 11-Jul 16-Jul 21-Jul 26-Jul 31-Jul
ppb
OBS
MOD
PM2.5, GTA, R=0.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1-Jul 6-Jul 11-Jul 16-Jul 21-Jul 26-Jul 31-Jul
ug/m
^3
OBS
MOD
PM2.5 time series, July 1 – 3 observed data excluded
PM2.5, GTA, R=0.89
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1-Jul 6-Jul 11-Jul 16-Jul 21-Jul 26-Jul 31-Jul
ug/m
^3 OBS
MOD
Time series of ozone and PM2.5, GTA, August 1998
Ozone
0
20
40
60
80
100
1-Aug 6-Aug 11-Aug 16-Aug 21-Aug 26-Aug 31-Aug
OBS
MOD
PM2.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1-Aug 6-Aug 11-Aug 16-Aug 21-Aug 26-Aug 31-Aug
OBS
MOD
Number of days with high O3 ( > 65 ppb) and PM2.5 ( > 20 ug/m3) concentrations
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
Ozone 5 5 7 7 2 4 1 1 2 0 2 1
PM2.5 5 5 6 5 8 4 0 0 4 0 0 0
Ozone 6 5 4 5 3 1 3 1 0 0 0 0
PM2.5 1 0 3 2 8 1 2 0 1 0 0 0
Ozone 8 8 9 12 5 5 5 5 4 0 1 1
PM2.5 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 0 0 0 0
Ozone 8 4 6 9 2 3 2 2 2 0 0 0
PM2.5 1 3 7 6 9 1 1 1 0 1 0 0
Ozone 3 2 3 4 2 2 3 1 1 0 0 0
PM2.5 3 3 3 3 6 3 2 2 1 3 0 0
Ozone 30 24 29 37 14 15 14 10 9 0 3 2PM2.5 13 14 23 20 35 12 8 6 6 4 0 0
SUB-DOMAIN
Species
Total
MonthS
ept
May
July
Jun
eA
ug
O3 and PM2.5 concentrations on “Clean”, “Dirty” days and on average
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XIIMean 51.5 50.9 51.7 54.0 47.5 49.1 47.3 45.3 46.9 43.1 43.4 42.4Dirty 70.4 70.2 70.8 73.3 82.1 72.5 70.0 65.8 69.5 N/A 73.2 67.4Clean 47.9 47.2 46.2 48.4 45.1 45.6 46.5 44.6 45.4 43.1 41.3 41.6Mean 10.1 11.0 13.0 12.8 15.5 8.3 6.7 5.7 7.9 6.0 4.1 4.9Dirty 21.3 26.1 30.0 27.5 34.4 26.1 N/A N/A 22.1 N/A N/A N/AClean 8.0 8.1 8.9 10.0 8.9 5.6 6.7 5.7 5.8 6.0 4.1 4.9Mean 55.4 51.6 52.3 54.7 48.3 48.5 49.4 48.3 47.9 45.4 43.8 43.4Dirty 75.2 69.9 72.1 72.6 72.4 66.8 71.1 74.8 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 50.4 47.9 49.3 51.1 45.6 47.9 47.0 47.4 47.9 45.4 43.8 43.4Mean 8.2 8.0 9.9 10.5 14.5 8.2 7.8 6.7 5.8 6.2 3.2 3.9Dirty 21.9 23.3 23.1 28.2 26.5 21.5 N/A 20.7 N/A N/A N/AClean 7.7 8.0 8.4 9.6 9.5 7.6 6.8 6.7 5.3 6.2 3.2 3.9Mean 59.4 54.3 55.6 59.5 51.5 51.0 52.9 51.4 49.0 45.4 44.6 44.6Dirty 77.5 71.9 71.1 73.8 74.1 77.4 81.2 77.8 69.0 N/A 67.2 65.5Clean 53.2 48.1 49.3 50.5 47.2 45.9 47.4 46.3 46.0 45.4 43.8 43.9Mean 10.1 8.7 9.9 11.2 12.5 7.6 8.0 7.8 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.5Dirty 25.4 24.3 24.4 26.7 28.4 23.6 26.9 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 8.4 7.0 7.7 8.9 10.1 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.5Mean 57.2 54.1 54.6 57.4 48.3 47.8 47.0 46.9 50.4 43.4 44.2 44.3Dirty 71.4 72.5 68.3 69.0 69.4 70.7 73.4 70.0 72.6 N/A N/A 71.2Clean 52.3 51.4 51.3 52.6 46.8 45.4 45.2 45.3 48.8 43.4 44.2 42.4Mean 10.5 10.5 13.4 13.8 15.0 8.0 7.9 8.0 7.3 8.3 4.3 5.0Dirty 24.5 21.4 23.2 22.6 23.8 22.6 24.3 23.9 N/A 22.6 N/A N/AClean 10.0 9.3 10.5 11.7 11.4 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.8 4.3 5.0Mean 49.0 46.9 45.7 49.0 41.2 43.6 44.0 43.3 44.7 40.3 41.9 40.6Dirty 67.7 69.2 71.4 72.6 72.5 73.2 69.9 71.5 66.6 N/A N/A N/AClean 46.9 45.3 42.9 45.3 38.9 41.5 41.2 42.3 44.0 40.3 41.9 40.6Mean 10.8 10.6 11.9 12.4 14.1 8.9 8.2 7.5 6.6 7.6 3.6 4.1Dirty 23.8 25.0 28.2 26.5 27.8 28.1 27.5 25.1 22.2 22.7 N/A N/AClean 9.3 9.0 10.1 10.8 10.6 6.8 6.8 6.3 6.1 5.9 3.6 4.1
ozone
May
June
July
Aug
ozone
PM2.5
ozone
PM2.5
Month Species
PM2.5
SUB-DOMAINSMean/ Dirty/ Clean
Sep
t
ozone
PM2.5
ozone
PM2.5
Chemical composition of PM2.5, May 1998
SPECIES Mean/Dirty/Clean I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XIIMean 10.1 11.0 13.0 12.8 15.5 8.3 6.7 5.7 7.9 6.0 4.1 4.9Dirty 21.3 26.1 30.0 27.5 34.4 26.1 N/A N/A 22.1 N/A N/A N/AClean 8.0 8.1 8.9 10.0 8.9 5.6 6.7 5.7 5.8 6.0 4.1 4.9Mean 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.3 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1Dirty 1.3 3.3 5.1 3.4 6.6 3.5 N/A N/A 2.5 N/A N/A N/AClean 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1Mean 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.5 4.7 3.8 3.3 2.8 3.9 2.3 2.4 2.7Dirty 12.3 12.8 12.4 12.9 10.7 11.6 N/A N/A 10.9 N/A N/A N/AClean 3.7 3.7 3.6 4.1 2.6 2.7 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.7Mean 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.6Dirty 3.7 5.0 5.4 4.8 5.4 4.2 N/A N/A 4.3 N/A N/A N/AClean 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.6Mean 1.8 1.9 2.8 2.8 5.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.8Dirty 2.9 3.6 5.4 4.6 9.6 4.9 N/A N/A 3.0 N/A N/A N/AClean 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.4 3.6 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.9 0.5 0.8Mean 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4Dirty 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A 0.2 N/A N/A N/AClean 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4Mean 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2Dirty 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 N/A N/A 0.7 N/A N/A N/AClean 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2Mean 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1Dirty 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A 0.3 N/A N/A N/AClean 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1
AORGA
ASOIL
ASO4
ANH4
A25
AORGB
DOMAINSMay-98
PM25
ANO3
Chemical composition of PM2.5, July 1998
SPECIES Mean/Dirty/Clean I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XIIMean 10.1 8.7 9.9 11.2 12.5 7.6 8.0 7.8 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.5Dirty 25.4 24.3 24.4 26.7 28.4 23.6 26.9 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 8.4 7.0 7.7 8.9 10.1 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0 7.0 4.0 4.5Mean 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Dirty 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Mean 5.0 4.3 4.5 5.7 4.3 3.6 4.1 4.2 3.1 2.9 2.1 2.4Dirty 13.7 13.7 14.5 16.9 14.0 11.3 14.4 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 4.1 3.3 3.5 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.1 2.4Mean 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5Dirty 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.1 5.1 4.1 4.4 3.9 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5Mean 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.5 5.1 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.9 0.6 0.7Dirty 4.7 3.8 4.0 3.6 8.1 5.8 5.2 3.8 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 1.9 1.6 2.2 2.4 4.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.9 0.6 0.7Mean 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6Dirty 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6Mean 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2Dirty 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2Mean 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1Dirty 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/AClean 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1
July-98 DOMAINS
PM25
ANO3
AORGA
ASOIL
ASO4
ANH4
A25
AORGB
Correlation coefficients between observed and modelled data
SUB-DOMAINS Month Species
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
Ozone 0.88 0.90 0.70 0.76 0.85 0.67 N/A 0.77 0.83 0.70 0.88 0.84
May
PM25 N/A 0.77 0.88 0.79 0.86 0.78 N/A N/A 0.79 0.54 N/A N/A
Ozone 0.78 0.86 0.62 0.61 0.83 0.69 N/A 0.74 0.77 0.57 0.59 0.78
Jun
e
PM25 N/A 0.91 0.83 0.59 0.79 0.80 N/A N/A 0.61 0.58 N/A N/A
Ozone 0.78 0.89 0.85 0.90 0.85 0.69 N/A 0.88 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.90
July
PM25 N/A 0.90 0.83 0.84 0.89 0.92 N/A N/A 0.56 0.91 N/A N/A
Ozone 0.72 0.74 0.62 0.71 0.74 0.58 N/A 0.71 0.77 0.80 0.79 0.85
Au
g
PM25 N/A 0.78 0.65 0.70 0.43 0.66 N/A N/A 0.74 0.77 N/A N/A
Ozone 0.70 0.74 0.50 0.67 0.57 0.45 N/A 0.72 0.78 0.47 0.31 0.68
Se
pt
PM25 N/A 0.78 0.81 0.75 0.80 0.80 N/A N/A 0.82 0.68 N/A N/A
Percent change in Windsor with Ontario emissions eliminated
(a)
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
%
Mean -2.7 -0.8 -2.5 -4.8 -1.1
Dirty ( > 65 ppb) -1.9 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.2
Clean ( < 65 ppb) -2.8 -0.8 -3.0 -6.0 -1.1
may june july aug sept
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
%
Mean -19.6 -15.2 -18.4 -23.7 -18.9
Dirty ( > 20 ug/m^3) -5.9 -4.9 -6.8 -2.3 -5.7
Clean ( < 20 ug/m^3) -22.3 -15.5 -19.6 -24.4 -20.4
may june july aug sept
OOzone
PPM2.5
Percent change in the GTA with Ontario emissions eliminated
(a)
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
%
Mean 3.1 0.1 -0.7 -2.4 7.2
Dirty ( > 65 ppb) -17.1 -14.9 -6.4 -4.6 -2.5
Clean ( < 65 ppb) 4.5 1.7 0.3 -2.2 7.9
may june july aug sept
-70.0
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
%
Mean -53.7 -60.8 -57.3 -58.5 -54.7
Dirty ( > 20 ug/m^3) -46.8 -57.6 -35.8 -54.9 -38.7
Clean ( < 20 ug/m^3) -56.2 -62.0 -60.5 -59.9 -58.7
may june july aug sept
Ozone
PPM2.5
Conclusions• The modelling assessment has been performed for both
ozone and PM2.5 over a 5 month period in 1998
• Although there were some discrepancies between modelled and observed data for individual days and episodes, the differences appear to be random due to small shifts in the meteorological fields.
• The model/monitoring comparisons indicate that the model performed well overall.
• Zeroing-out Ontario’s emissions showed small impacts in southeastern Ontario with larger influences on PM2.5 in the GTA/Hamilton areas and on ozone east of the GTA.