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The global dimensions of bio-energy markets, trade and sustainable development . DEO-DAY 2006: Bio-energy and Sustainability. Can we have both?, Utrecht, The Netherlands, June 13, 2006. André Faaij Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University. Issues covered. Global biomass resource potentials… - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
The global dimensions of
bio-energy markets, trade and sustainable
development. DEO-DAY 2006: Bio-energy and Sustainability. Can we have both?, Utrecht, The Netherlands, June 13,
2006. André Faaij
Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Issues covered
• Global biomass resource potentials…• International bio-energy market
developments, trade and sustainability.• Agenda and need for international
collaboration.
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
population
GDP
trade
land productivity
future land use patterns
agricultural policy
agricultural system
irrigation, breeding, mechanization,
chemicals
biotechnology
energyconsumption
POTENTIAL FOR BIO-ENERGY?
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Bioenergy production potential in 2050 for different levels of
change in agricultural management
434111
137
North AmericaJapan Ameri
0 0 0 0
Near East & North Africa
1 2 32 39W.Europe0 1432 40
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
1460
100125
Oceania America
1560
100125
E.Europe
1 8 14 17
East Asia10
21
178221
410
sub-SaharanAfrica
41
149
331
Caribean &Latin America
178
253315
46
268
111 136
CIS & Baltic States
South Asia
1421
2124
434111
137
North AmericaJapan Ameri
0 0 0 0
Near East & North Africa
1 2 32 39W.Europe0 1432 40
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
1460
100125
Oceania America
1560
100125
E.Europe
1 8 14 17
East Asia10
21
178221
410
sub-SaharanAfrica
41
149
331
Caribean &Latin America
178
253315
46
268
111 136
CIS & Baltic States
South Asia
1421
2124
Sou
rce:
Sm
eets
, Faa
ij 20
04
Potential Oceania 4-6 times projected primary energy use
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
B1-2010
Integrated assessment modelling using IMAGE (RIVM) for assessingland-use and production potentials of biomass for energy
Sou
rce:
Hoo
gwijk
, Faa
ij 20
04
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
B1 2020S
ourc
e: H
oogw
ijk, F
aaij
2004
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
B1 2030S
ourc
e: H
oogw
ijk, F
aaij
2004
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
B1 2040S
ourc
e: H
oogw
ijk, F
aaij
2004
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
B1 2050S
ourc
e: H
oogw
ijk, F
aaij
2004
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
A2 2050S
ourc
e: H
oogw
ijk, F
aaij
2004
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
A1 2050S
ourc
e: H
oogw
ijk, F
aaij
2004
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
B2 2050S
ourc
e: H
oogw
ijk, F
aaij
2004
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
B1 2050S
ourc
e: H
oogw
ijk, F
aaij
2004
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Land-use pattern changes
A1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
year
Are
a (G
ha)
A2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
year
Are
a (G
ha)
BioresreveForestCroplandGrasslandRestlandlow-productivityAbandoned
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Basics energy crop options (EU)
Crop Typical yield ranges (odt/ha*yr)
Energy inputs (GJprim/ha*yr
Typical net energy yield (GJ/ha*yr)
Production cost ranges European context (Euro/GJ)
Short term 2.9 (rapeseed) 2.6 (straw)
11 110 (total) 20 Rape
Longer term 4 (rapeseed) 4.5 (straw)
12 180 (total) 12
Short term 14 13 250 12 Sugar Beet Longer term 20 10 370 8
Shorter term 10 5 180 3-6 SRC-Willow Longer term 15 5 280 <2
Shorter term 9 4 150 3-4 Poplar Longer term 13 4 250 <2 Shorter term 10 13-14 180 3-6 Miscant
hus Longer term 20 13-14 350 ~2
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Miscanthus - different genotypesC4 photosynthetic pathway
Miscanthus x giganteus Miscanthus sacchariflorus
Miscanthus sinensis hybrid Miscanthus sinensis
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Global cost-supply curve for energy crops for four scenarios for the year
2050
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Geographical potential of energy crops (EJ y -1)
Pro
duct
ion
cost
of e
nerg
y cr
ops
($ G
J-1)
A1 at abandoned agricultural landA2 at abandoned agricultural landB1 at abandoned agricultural landB2 at abandoned agricultural landA1 at rest landA2 at rest land B1 at rest landB2 at rest landB1_2000
B1 at abandoned agricultural land in 2000
At abandoned agricultural land At rest land
Sou
rce:
Hoo
gwijk
, Faa
ij, 2
004
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Overall picture 2050Biomass category
Main assumptions and remarks Potential bio-energy supply up to 2050.
Agricultural land
Potential land surplus: 0-4 Gha (more average: 1-2 Gha). 0 – 700 EJ (average: 100 – 300 EJ)
Marginal lands. On a global scale a maximum land surface of 1.7 Gha could be involved.
(0) 60 – 150 EJ
Residues agriculture
Estimates from various studies 15 – 70 EJ
Forest residues Low value: figure for sustainable forest management. High value: technical potential. Figures include processing residues.
(0) 30 - 150 EJ
Dung Use of dried dung. Low estimate based on global current use. High estimate: technical potential.
(0) 5 – 55 EJ
Organic wastes Figures include the organic fraction of MSW and waste wood. Higher values possible by more intensive use of bio-materials.
5 – 50 (+) EJ
Total Most pessimistic scenario: no land available for energy farming; only utilisation of residues. Most optimistic scenario: intensive agriculture concentrated on the better quality soils.
40 – 1100 EJ (250 - 500 EJ)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Productionsites
CentralGatheringpoint
Rail transport
River / ocean
Border
International bio-energy logistics not a showstopper when
organized rightly
Shiptransport
Harbour and/orcoastal CGP
ConversionUnit
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16
Residues Europe - Pellets per Ship -
Methanol Residues Europe -
Methanol per Ship - Methanol
Crops Europe - Pellets per Ship -
Methanol Crops Europe -
Methanol per Ship - Methanol
Crops LA 300MW inland - Pellets -
Methanol Crops LA 300MW inland - Methanol -
Methanol Crops LA 1200MW
inland - Methanol (4x) - Methanol
Crops LA 1200MW inland - Methanol -
Methanol Crops E Europe 300 MW - Methanol per
Ship 2000 km - Methanol
Cos
ts (€
/GJH
HV
Liqu
ids)
Conversion Storage Densification Drying Sizing Ship Train Truck Wire Biomass
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Mozambique…
[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Potential surplus agricultural land in 2015 in Mozambique, dependant on
the level of advancement of agricultural technology
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
intermediate/mixed
high, rain-fed/mixed
high, rain-fed/landless
very high, rain-fed/landless
high, rain-fed-irrigated/landless
million ha
very suitable
suitable
moderatelysuitable
marginallysuitable
level of agricultural technology/animal production system
[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Regional biomass annual production potential in
Mozambique/PJHHV (2015)
[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
Total 7 EJ;2.5 times the Total primary Energy demandof the Netherlands
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Comparison of bioenergy growing costs by region type
(€/GJ)
[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Logistics for export….
[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Range of costs for FT fuel delivered at Rotterdam
Harbour
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
EF Pellets EF Pyrolysis CFB FT
Fuel
cos
t(€/G
J del
iver
ed)
Labour
Energy
O&M
Capital
Biomass
[Batidzirai & Faaij, 2005]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Bioenergy halfway this century…
• 100 EJ from forest & Ag. residues & organic wastes
• 100 EJ from restoration schemes degraded lands
• 200 EJ from good quality land released due to higher efficiency in agriculture (DC’s, Eastern Europe…)
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Bioenergy halfway this century…
• ~ 400 EJ is an expected 1/3 of the world’s future energy needs; the key alternative for mineral oil!
• Represents 1-3 TRILLION U$ market value worldwide; larger than agriculture…
• Involves some 10% of the worlds land surface / one fifth of agricultural/pasture lands.
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
International bio-energy markets developing
fast… • Excitement:– Solid biofuels trading develops in bilateral setting;
bio-ethanol entered first phases of commodity market trading; ‘’wild west phase’’
– Growing bio-energy demand and international supply chains create unique opportunities for biomass producing regions.
– Investments in large scale conversion capacity now more secure.
– Ultimately, a real alternative for mineral oil…• Concerns:
– Overexploitation (water, land competition) should be avoided and fair trading principles implemented.
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
The key linkages…• Agriculture the key for bio-energy…• Bio-energy could be the key lever
for rural development.• Bio-energy is (and will be) propelled
by sound economics; market almost unlimited (and uncontrolled)
• Sustainability to be secured in a global setting.
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Areas of concern relevant for sustainability of the biomass production and trading chains
Social criteriae.g. Labor conditions
Human safety and health …….
Economic criteriae.g. Viability of the business
Yields………
Ecological criteriae.g. Preservation of existing sensitive ecosystems
Conservation of ground and surface water ……..
General criteria•e.g. Traceability
•Avoidance of leakage effects•………
⇛Many criteria, but quantitative and measureable indicators are often missing
[Lewandowski & Faaij, 2004]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Operationalisation of sustainability criteria
costs
land availability
Criteriadeforestation
competition with food production
biodiversity
soil erosion
fresh water
nutrient leaching
pollution from chemicals
employment
child labour
wages
Impact
cropmanagement
system
yield quantity
cost supply curve
[Smeets et al., 2005]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation
Indicative cost impacts of applying sustainability criteria…
[Smeets et al., 2005]
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
VS mS VS mS
Brazil Brazil Ukraine Ukraine
€/G
J
soil erosion
nutrient losses
pesticide use
health care
education
child labour
w ages
reference scenario
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Quickscan of PROALCOOL-Brazil
Issue RemarksWater use Dependant on local situationWater pollution Dependant on local situation; criteria availableBiodiversity Indirect impacts?; research requiredErosion Dependant on local situationGM cane No GM cane is usedCane burning Complex issue: link with employment, erosion, GHGGHG/emission Soil carbon is crucialCompetition with food Indirect impacts?; research requiredEmployment Indirect impacts?; research requiredWages/working conditionsChild labour Easy to check; limited impact
Limited impact and/or unimportant issue and/or easy to tackle and/or indicators present
Big impact and/or important issue and/or difficult to tackle and/or no indicators present
[Smeets, Junginger,Faaij, Walter, 2006DRAFT!]
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Closing remarks (I)• Large, economic, biomass potentials (but
needs complex, sustainable, development and a working international market; 1/3 of global energy demand seems feasible!)
• Integration of biomass production into agriculture (implying integrated rural development schemes targeting traditional agriculture)
• Competitive biomass-technology combinations within reach for the world market (but needs serious, consistent development and market introduction).
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Closing remarks (II)• Sustainable biomass production achieving
multiple benefits is possible (but needs strong frameworks and control of market forces).
• Diversity in ecological and socio-economic conditions to be recognized (asking for regional approaches in a global setting; stakeholder approaches (PIA) seem best model).
• Sense of urgency is needed; market forces are already steering development of international bio-energy markets.
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Closing remarks (III)• Flagship projects (to demonstrate
multiple benefits and framework(s) under different conditions; solid fuels… multiple markets with international focus…
• Promising future; but policy needs to choose and coordinate (agriculture, trade, climate, energy and development are interlinked here).
• Strong need for international collaboration and action: IBEP, Biofuels Init., IEA, G8 partnership, WTO, etcetc.
Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management
Internat. network: IEA Task 40
• Members: Netherlands (T.L.; Copernicus & Essent), Sweden, Norway, Brazil, Finland, Canada, UK, Italy, Belgium; Germany just came on board
• Affiliated international bodies– FAO, World Bank; (interest: UNCTAD, WWF int., UNEP)
www.bioenergytrade.org:• Detailed activities• Results (e.g. country reports, analyses)• Events• Partner for collaboration