View
215
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
“And see this ring right here, Jimmy? . . . That’s another time the old fellow miraculously survived some big forest fire.”
ENFA/INSEA FORESTRY…..
Global ForAg ModelFASOM
Regional Farm Type Model
AROPAj
Farm ModelEFEM-DNDC
Stand level ModelPICUS
Regional Forest ModelEURO - FOR
Mod
el fo
r G
HG
Res
pons
e to
Man
agem
ent
EP
ICC
om
mo
n D
atabase
and
Stan
dard
s
• Common Database and Data Structure• Harmonized System Boundaries• IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting• Consistent Baseline Assumptions• Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures• Uniform Validation Criteria• Agreed Sustainability Constraints• Common IT Standards• Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines• Joint Vision
INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK
All
Par
tner
s
Basic Modeling
Processing
Markets
Feed Mixing
Other Resources
Grazing
Labor
Pasture Land
Natl. Inputs
Forestland
Water
Livestock Production
CropProduction
Export
DomesticDemand
Import
Biofuel/GHGDemand
ForestProduction
Cropland
Global ForAg ModelFASOM
Regional Farm Type Model
AROPAj
Farm ModelEFEM-DNDC
Stand level ModelPICUS
Regional Forest ModelEURO - FOR
Mod
el fo
r G
HG
Res
pons
e to
Man
agem
ent
EP
ICC
om
mo
n D
atabase
and
Stan
dard
s
• Common Database and Data Structure• Harmonized System Boundaries• IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting• Consistent Baseline Assumptions• Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures• Uniform Validation Criteria• Agreed Sustainability Constraints• Common IT Standards• Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines• Joint Vision
INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK
All
Par
tner
s
PICUS 2.0
Global ForAg ModelFASOM
Regional Farm Type Model
AROPAj
Farm ModelEFEM-DNDC
Stand level ModelPICUS
Regional Forest ModelOSCAR
Mod
el fo
r G
HG
Res
pons
e to
Man
agem
ent
EP
ICC
om
mo
n D
atabase
and
Stan
dard
s
• Common Database and Data Structure• Harmonized System Boundaries• IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting• Consistent Baseline Assumptions• Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures• Uniform Validation Criteria• Agreed Sustainability Constraints• Common IT Standards• Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines• Joint Vision
INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK
All
Par
tner
s
OSCAR linksLink to FASOMDynamic PE of ForAg
OSCARForest Production
Tree Growth Mortality Effects of management -thinning
Data IssuesRegion or Grid
DIMA Economic Downscaling
Forestry modeling framework
Supply:•W4E •Wood4ForInd•C storage (soil, biomass)•LUC
Alternatives:•C storage •Wood
•Energy
•management: (harvest, thinning, species)
•potential NPP•Initial state forest and soil
climate
FASOM model-economic optimization of land use
OSKAR model-forestry scenarios
NPP model
•management costs
OSCAR model output for a grid cell area size
(m2)
Biomass Management scenario and predicted production (wood, carbon storage, energy)
1 A1 B1 m1 p1 m2 p3 m3 p3 m4 p4 ...
1 A1 B2
2
.
.
.
•The HRU is divided in biomass classes depending on the initial state of the forest in terms of biomass and species
•Each area of similar biomass and species is modeled as a single forest stand
•A number of management scenarios is simulated for each forest area and class
Density and stand development
•Thinning changes the density initially but also the development with time
•After thinning the density approaches full density (self-thinning limit)
growth thinning
self-thinning
biomass
soil carbon
mortality
decomposition
CO2
density
Forest growth
•Potential NPP controls growth rate and equilibrium biomass
0 50 1000
1
22
0
GN b 1 1( )
GN b 1 0.1( )
GN b 2 0.01( )
GN b 2 1( )
1000 b
biomass
biom
ass
incr
emen
t
0 50 1000
1
22
0
GN b 1 1( )
GN b 1 0.1( )
GN b 2 0.01( )
GN b 2 1( )
1000 b
biomass
biom
ass
incr
emen
t
0 100 2000
50
10099.989
0
B 0.1 1 t 0.01( )
B 0.1 2 t 0.01( )
B 0.1 1 t 1( )
B 0.1 2 t 1( )
2000 ttimest
andi
ng b
iom
ass
0 100 2000
50
10099.989
0
B 0.1 1 t 0.01( )
B 0.1 2 t 0.01( )
B 0.1 1 t 1( )
B 0.1 2 t 1( )
2000 ttimest
andi
ng b
iom
ass
Example: Management Scenario
20%
70%
0%
Biomass Chain – Methanol (Populus et al.) Biomass Gasification Plants of variable size Geographically explicit supply Engineering cost calculations
In cooperation with LTU, BoKu
Example with 5 biofuel plants
CarsFuel (MW)
Bio (ODT/year
)
461500
185 521100
514300
206 580800
1E+06 463 1307600
462300
185 522100
362800
145 409700
Cost in €/GJMEOH
Cost in € / lMEOH
OSCAR linksLink to FASOMDynamic PE of ForAg
OSCARForest Production
Tree Growth Mortality Effects of management -thinning
Data IssuesRegion or Grid
DIMA Economic Downscaling
DIMA_Global Down-scaling Model Exogenous Prices
Outputs (B4E, Timber, Carbon) Inputs (Land, Labor, Capital/Technology)
Land Use Change until 2100 for B1Intensity map: (affected) ha x C-uptake
Existing forestAfforestationDeforestation
Spatial Distribution of GDP
Important inputs to the spatially explicit forestry and regional agricultural model
Necessary information for vulnerability, adaptation and impact assessment
Bioenergy Supply for 2000-2100 A2 (Price < 6$/GJ)
Outlook First Data Supplied to FASOM Constant Check of Species Calibration Resource data appraisal and downscaling Go Global with FASOM4WOOD More Chains (FT Diesel, DME, H2, CCS…) Disturbances & Implement rules from
Stochastic calculus.