Anatomy of a Rice Crisis

7/30/2019 Anatomy of a Rice Crisis

1/6

26

global asiaCve tatm rce C

Asia Sentineleditor John

Berthelsen provides a case

study o how geography, a

burgeoning population and

a corrupt and inattentive

government in thePhilippines have defned the

countrys vulnerability to

rice shortages.

But the latest crisis over

rice supplies, he argues, was

more the product o panic

than reality.

oN NoVeMBer 9, 2007, t t sutwst

t anmn isns n t B Bn,

wt bsvs bn t nt n

stubn n t Nb isns. T

in Mt dtmnt snt

t dssn BoB 09 n Nvmb 11; st

t t u t t T cn 06B.omnus, 06B ntns nt -

ssn s t mv. it wu b u

n t cn Stm S, nm n-

tbut b omn t t nnu t stm

nms n tkn m t ab nm

t, Zzus sn-st, csts tn.

dvn mst t nt, S ws s-

s s su tn n Nvmb 13. Wt

wns kn t 260 kmts n u, t

smm nt Bns wt sustn wns 215 km/. dst wnns n -

tv -s vutns, S k t st

3,447 , n t t Bns v-

nmnt, tu Sv t cn n t

r csnt St stmt tt t t

t m tu b s s 10,000.

T stm s u Bnss nnu

vst b 1.4 mn t 2 mn mt

tns, qun t vnmnt t mt u t

3.5 mn tns v ts nm st 2 t2.4 mn. Ts v t b t tst tt

wu sut n b ss , st

t ws utn. as w

s t Unt Stts, t nsum nt W-

Mt wu vntu mt ss n ts

svs. in Twn, ss ut v bs

. in hn Kn, svs m mt

. ts wu bn n unts s

Anatomy o

a Rice CrisisBy John Berthelsen


2/6

27

global asia V.3, n. 2

vs s Bns n ct iv n, n

a 13, bn wn t htn vnmnt.

dns n t t wt n -

utn, mnsn munts n,

nsn u sts, n ttntn t -

tn sstms n sv unts, ut

n aust n n t nt n ntn

bw luzn n t pns, st bms

n Vtnm ts ts, mt bnkn vnmnts, m tt t n

t v u s n t t mssn tt

b st ws mmnnt.

m Nvmb 2007 t a 2008, t

skkt m but US$300

tn t s mu s US$1,100 tu sm

vnmnts unt bu t t n . T

pns t wtw tn n

a bus s n k su.

T stutn s txtbk xm w n-tk t ws mkts . dst

t t tt n 10 nt t ws

s t ntntn n tt mst t s

wn b bt mn n wmn n tn

ts n s b n, vnmnts bn

t sut wn sus ss t w.

on Jnu 8, 2008, in, t t-st

xt t Tn n Vtnm,

bnn xts nn-bsmt . et -

w n Jnu 17, uttn xts m 1.1mn mt tns t 800,000. on bu 20,

Vnzus r Mn asstn nnun

tt mts wu b n t mt mkt

mn. cn bnn xts t nxt ,

w b cmb n M 26. on a

8, n nsn nvus et n ts

vus, us bn, susnn xts

sx mnts. on a 15, inns nnun

ns t bn n ss ts bus

smus w skn t xt -s uts t unt. T s t, Kn

nnun tt 20 nt ts

bn st t nt unus.

an s t wnt. Tn, n a 27, wt

bsvs bn t bsv t nt stm

n t B Bn, n tt wu w

S. cn Nsn Uu w -

t t iw rv dt n M 3

n tun nt t mst stutv ntu

sst n Bums st. a w wt 12

t 15 t , unt bus mnv

swms n t st bn tn ut

s ms, 25 ms nn, swn

unmnb stutn. T Bums v-

nmnt stmt t but 90,000

n 56,000 mssn. Tt u s sn bn

ut t but 130,000 .Ns s wk s mu s 65 nt

Bums t st 200,000 ts

t iw dt un ntn n

2008. httn just w s t t vst

ws mt, Ns s w ut mu

t n wuss.

Bum ntt t s 600,000 tns

t S lnk n Bns. Nw t ws

t n t stv ts wn qu

t mt s mu s 1.5 mn tns. an,mst smutnus, t bm knwn tt

Nt K ws n nt ut mn tt

wu qu ns t v s mu s

mn tns ns tws.

Sttn n wtn ts ws t

pns, unt 90 mn ,

nt wm n subsst

n vnmnt-subsz . a sk v-

nmnt, n t n b ts wn wk

n w, wnt t n n t unts unt b, skn t bu s mu s 500,000

tns t s ns . Ts t

st-buk tunt ts n inns,

w s nt, t smu t

mmt ut tu Sn vntu

s n t pns.

r n vnmnt-nt st n

inns ws sn US$436.80 tn

t tm wn t pn vnmnt n

ts w n u t US$1,100 nVtnm n Tn. T skktn

n t ttnnt smun tunts

nt t nn n bt unts,

wt innsn psnt Sus Bmbn

yun n vnmnt s t

st t smun b sts n

inns us t unst. ptns n

t pns s wn unst.


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PhiliPPinE riCE disaPPoinTs

T st pn s stn n.

Ts ws w, n t 1960s, t intntn

r rs insttut, t-u v sut

Mn, un b t cn n

untns, v s- M

r. T st n mst mus vt ws

knwn s ir8, -n, st-sttu

nt but 120 m t tt nt vn stms. ir8 ws s utv tt pn

s n tst ts v 9.4 tns -

t nst v s but 1 tn

t, n t st irri b Tm

hv n W. rnn cmn. as irri

s ss as, n inn m nm

K.N. gnsn ws s mss tt nm

s sn sn ir8 n n t nw vt.

T s nsttuts uttn w t

t nt w pn stnmn nnMs t utn s mu ir8

s ssb, vwn t mk t unt s-

sunt n . dun t st 1966

n, n t t st b hv n

cmn, 2,359 n ms m t irri

b bus, n b, n n t, m 48 t

unts 56 vns, t t ss.

Bus ir8 svnts, nun

k n n bk, t nsttut

ntnu t v nw stns tt utmt-

vutnz utn ww. it

vntu mk t pns s-su-nt n unt 1993, wn t tun nt t

nt mt t mns t ts .

Ts s unk t n. T pns

s t vtm t s: , bu-

nn utn n ut n nttn-

tv vnmnt.

it s n unt 7, 107 sns,

v w wt t t u t w-

n . T unt s n 4.07 mn -

ts n m wt 10.2 mn nTn, w s stb utn

65.5 mn . Vtnm s 7.32 mn

ts n Vtnm t ts utn 86

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Jan04

Mar04

May04

Jul04

Sept04

Nov04

Jan05

Mar05

May05

Jul05

Sept05

Nov05

Jan06

Mar06

May06

Jul06

Sept06

Nov06

Jan07

Mar07

May07

Jul07

Sept07

Nov07

Jan08

Mar08

May08

US$per ton

1

2

3

4

Events1. inda mposes export restrctons

2. Vetnam tghtens export restrctons

3. Phlppnes buyng > $700/ton

4. Phlppnes fourth tender> $1,100/ton (Aprl 17, 2008)

figUrE 1 riCE ExPorT PriCE, 2004-08, Thai 100b

Source: USDA, FAO


4/6

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As far away as the United

States, the consumer giant

Wal-Mart would eventually

limit sales of rice on its

shelves. In Taiwan, shoppersfought over bags of rice.

In Hong Kong, shelves

magically emptied of rice.

mn. T t ws N. 1 n N. 2

xts, stv.

T 90 mn t pns

m tn 80 nt rmn ct n

utn wt s ssnt unk b

t vnmnt, w s nn w-

u u s. cnsqunt, numbs

wn nxbm tn 1.72 nt n-

nu, m 85.2 mn n 2005 t 86.2mn n 2006 t 88.7 mn n 2007. T b-

bs bn v mnut n t pr

exutv dt l S. Sbstn, w

wt tt st nss n utn,

su nnt k wt utn wt.

Sm 34.1 nt t utn s un t

14. T utn ws xt t x

92 mn n Ju 2008.

in t, n ms tv

utv wn msu nst t st as, un but 3.84 tns

t nst Tns 2.69 tns, n

t dunn Mnts, m sksmn

irri, tu T ms tn t

qut nst . inns s ,

Bum, in n Bns smwt w.

T w v s 4.02 tns t, -

n t t US dtmnt autu.

MaChinEry VErsUs TradiTionWt mnz mn u v s -

mt. T Unt Stts, t w n

utn t, vs 8.2 tns,

u t ntn n tzn s

b usn t b stnn sstm (gpS).

Mssv s-u mns v s

t mmt vtn t sv wt

n nsu vn wt. ms s nt

-nn -ss

, w t US vnmnt, tun cn, subszs tn wt s

tt ms n t u Smnt V

n nt n wt ws n ssnt

st. Vst mn mns n s-w

s nsu unm .

B ntst, ss mu as, nun

t pns, ms st nt sns b

n, nn n t t n ntu

n t bst utn. T t n bs n twn squs. T b t n

substn ntns, sutn n nst n

mstu m.

T nm utn tt n wk

t unt un t Ms s n b-

n s t snsb t u-

tu stns. T pns s t wt

u t unts N. 131 ut 180 n

Tnsn intntns w -

tn nx utn. an t stub Jnn gust, sn s wt t

iBoN untn, s u n Mn,

putn ts utt, mst ms

nt mnz, m tn nt t

t, n mst , svn ut 10 s-

nts st nss. dst t n

m ms, n s st n t ns

w ms w nt nt n n but s

t n mktn.

at s mss n n -m tu sussv mnsttns, stt-

n n 1963 wn t ws snt, n

Jun, psnt g M a -

s 100 bn ss n unn t xtn

t unt n m m nt

v s t mt t nv ms t

m wks. an t t unts -

n m tmnt, 2.17 mn ts


5/6

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ut 9.12 mn ts v b t t-

st w, ss n 1988, mn t b stb-ut. Mu t n mns un ttn,

wt suts btwn nwns n t

vnmnt ntnun. an mt-

n m sms stnt. T pns s

s mk US$964 mn tn.

atu t mt btt t xstn

tn sstms, t w vts n

k n tt. itn sstms v n

nt s bus, s n nst ut t,

its m tb n tms t t bunw sstms tn t s t mntn ns.

in tn, t kn mnztn tt -

us utsz s n t US n t eun

Unn s bmt n as, w nt n

s t v mnztn w but m

szs tn n m tn t n

nms s sm unvb.

T st mnztn tt n n

w s s tn sm, ss am B,

sksmn irri. in, irri ntnuswk n usn u snt just tu

nt su stns , but tu

mnztns s umnt tt t

sm tbkn. T nsttut v

sm s nsstn sx t t s-

t ums n nt xs n munt

n ws. e um s stu wt s

tu w -mnt ss

In May, the Philippines began todiscover that maybe there wasnt thatmuch o a crisis ater all. The country,it turned out, had 54 days o rice stocks

in storage, nearly double those o Chinaand our times those o India, both owhich are rice exporting nations.


6/6

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j betee Et Asia Sentinel

(.ete.cm).

n ws s sn nvu us t v

n b n. T st, n t irri, s

just US$40, n t sts sx t t s.

Ts t v n Bns b irris

S Sns dvsn n 2005 us u

s n v b 18 nt n ns

tuns b 21 nt v tnsnt s-

nssutn n bst US$120 t US$150

t n ts. imtnt, tum s qus n tw sn-s

t nt , m t 50 wn ms

n t wvs n n nt sns b

n. T um s s s bn xtm

sussu n Vtnm, B ss.

in tn, irri s v sm ft-

b s s tt ms nt n t

t n bs, wt t nmtnt

ss n s s mu s 30 t 50 -

nt t s. T s, v tbun usks nst ksn, v bn

nstut b ms sstns n Bum,

ls, Tn n inns tu t

sn sw.

n, irri s wt t s t irri Su

B, b t st u t 50 kms n

stn ss tn US$1.20 b. p

s, t b uts xn vs ns m

21 nt t 5 nt, un t numb

nsts t ss tn 1 k n wtutusn nsts.

T bm s ttn ts sm m-

mnts nt t ns t mns ms

ss as.

Crisis? whaT Crisis?

iBoN n ts u tt bztn n

vtztn v xbt t stutn n

t pns, vn ms t n.

Wt tt s tu, utn s n-tnu t ns wtn t nstnts

n utn. But n M, t

pns bn t sv tt mb t

wsnt tt mu ss t . T un-

t, t tun ut, 54 s stks n

st, n ub ts cn n u

tms ts in, bt w x-

tn ntns.

in, t s, s st

2.5 mn mt tns m tn ws

stmt n Ju 2007. T pns t-

s vs ts jtns uw b

n 400,000 tns. gb stmts

u b 4.5 mn tns m st .

pn ws t, bt n tms xt

sttns, n mts, but t unn

ssus w t vn wt n u-tvt w t us t ts nt, w w

nsumn m tn w un, irris

am B ss.

But n t pns n sw t-

ns wntn t vt sts n t

tub nk n tun t t ub -

s t sn mn n . Wn cmb

nnun n Jun tt t wu t ts

xt sttns, s mt n

t v ntnu t t wnws. Wt mst tn t nv bk t t

US$300 tn v b t n v s

u b 174 nt ts n, t n b

xt t mn bw t US$1,100 tn

t t n t st mkt n a.

in sns t ts nss t n

t t nt, n Jun t pns

t s t st 1.2 mn mt tns

stks t f t mkt, n t ws

n , wt t m n wn s. Mnw, aSeaNs u-

tn, vn wt t ntu sst n Bum,

s xt t v t n 5.1 mn tn

suus. T ss, t sms, s vt.

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Anatomy of a Rice Crisis