Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Analyzing the Future of Rural Forests in Massachusetts - Implications for Conservation. Jonathan Thompson [email protected]. What if?. or…. or…. Writ large…. For a given climate scenario… :. Developed?. Aggregate changes. Harvested?. Forest Condition. Conservation?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Analyzing the Future of Rural Forests in Massachusetts - Implications for
Conservation
Jonathan [email protected]
Writ large…
What if?
or… or…
ForestCondition Conservation?
Developed?
Harvested?
Wind or Ice?
Aggregate changes
For a given climate scenario…:
Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose
Map species& biomass
ForestCondition Conservation?
Developed?
Harvested?
Wind or Ice?
Aggregate changes
For a given climate scenario…:
Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose
Map species& biomass
Actual Forest Loss to Development1985 to 1999
Probability of Future Forest Loss
Simulating Current Trends:Housing Development
Size of New Developments
cover
cou
nt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 20 40 60 80 100
N = 300Ave = 55%
• 4300 ha /yr• 5 development treatments
(historical size and intensity)
• Historical spatial distribution
Simulating Current Trends:Housing Development
ForestCondition Conservation?
Developed?
Harvested?
Wind or Ice?
Aggregate changes
For a given climate scenario…:
Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose
Map species& biomass
Actual Timber Harvest 1985 to 2004
> 13,000 Harvests
Simulating Current Trends:
Timber Harvest
POPULATION DENSITY
Harvest
Development
Legend
2
3
4
14
15
17
18
27
Pro
babi
lity
Simulating Current Trends:Timber Harvest
• 10,500 ha/yr• 6 different treatments
(historical size, species & intensity)
• Historical spatial distribution
ForestCondition Conservation?
Developed?
Harvested?
Wind or Ice?
Aggregate changes
For a given climate scenario…:
Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose
Map species& biomass
ForestCondition Conservation?
Developed?
Harvested?
Wind or Ice?
Aggregate changes
For a given climate scenario…:
Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose
Map species& biomass
B
iom
ass
(T
g)
Climate
+ Dev +
Harv
Climate
+ Dev Clim
ate
+ Harv
Climate only
No Clim
ate
+ Dev + H
arv
No Clim
ate
+ Dev
No Clim
ate
+ Harv
No Clim
ate
05
01
00
15
02
00
02
55
07
51
00
Pe
rce
nt C
ha
ng
e (
%)
Growth only = + 70%Conversion = - 8 %Timber Harvests = - 2 %Climate Change = + 6 %
Fifty-years of Carbon sequestration at “Current Trends”
0 10 20 30 40 50
02
04
06
08
01
00
Sim1_CT
Simulation Years
% o
f To
tal A
bo
veg
rou
nd
Bio
ma
ss
ACRU
PISTTSCH
QURUBELE
ACSA3
ALL OTHER
FAGRBEPA BELE
Not a lot of difference in relative spp abundance.
• White Pine and Red Maple were 1st & 2nd irrespective• Climate change reinforced their dominance• Harvesting reduced Red Oak from 11 to 9.5% • Development was indiscriminate in terms of species
TAKE HOME MESSAGE: ASSUMING FUTURE LAND USE RESEMBLES THE
RECENT PAST
1.CONTINUED FOREST RECOVERY WILL BE THE DOMINANT MECHANISM DRIVING FOREST DYNAMICS OVER THE NEXT FIFTY YEARS
2.CLIMATE CHANGE MAY ENHANCE THE RATE OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION, BUT THIS WILL BE MORE THAN OFFSET BY LOSSES DUE TO LAND-USE, PRIMARILY FOREST CONVERSION TO DEVELOPED USES.
"Future Directions"
1. Complete multiple, stake-holder driven scenarios for MA
2. Link a series of alternative scenarios to metrics of water and habitat quality
3. Develop New England-wide approach4. Host workshop with potential partners in
other regions
subsequent slides are for use in case of questions.
MA GNN Work led by Ty Wilson, USFS Northern Research Station
Initial Forest Condition
Initial Forest Condition
From Imputation of field data:Species Distributions, Age Class Distributions, Above Ground Biomass
Initial Forest Condition
0 100 200 300 400
01
00
20
03
00
FIA AGB (Mgha)
LA
ND
IS A
GB
(M
g/h
a)
ACRUPISTTSCAQURUBELEACSA3FAGRBEPABEAL2FRAM2QUALQUVEPRSE2QUCO2PIRIQUPR2POTR5POGR4PIRUCAOV2CAGL8OSVINYSYBEPOABBA
r = 0.7RMSE = 44Mg ha-1
Simulating Current Trends:Housing Development
Species Harvested
LANDIS-II: Forest Landscape Simulator
LANDIS-II WITH MODULES
LAND USE CHANGE
CONSERVATION
HARVESTING
SPATIALLY INTERACTIVE PROCESSES
SEED DISPERSAL
TREE SPECIESESTABLISHMENT
DEAD BIOMASS
NON-SPATIAL COMMUNITYPROCESSES
LIVING BIOMASS
INSECTS / DISEASE
ANPP
PnET-iiAber et al.
PEST
LINKAGESPastor et al.
Scheller and Mladenoff
IPCCCLIMATE
SCENARIOS
COMPETITION/SUCCESSION
Parsing the Current Trends
Sim 1 Sim 2 Sim 3 Sim 4 Sim 5 Sim 6 Sim 7 Sim 8
Climate Change
Timber Harvest
Development
Simulation experiment with full factorial design andfive replicates of each simulation (based on power analysis)
16%
