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Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 1/17
Analyzing the bioenergy and food security nexus - combining top-down
and bottom-up approaches
by
Ingmar Jürgens
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Tel: +39 06 570 53639; Fax: +39 06 570 53369
e-mail: [email protected]
First FAO Technical Consultation on Bioenergy and Food Security
16-18 April 2007, Rome, Italy
Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 2/17
Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 3/17
Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 4/17
Key Determinants of Bioenergy Production
Population growth and economic development
Energy prices
Food consumption: per capita calorie intake and composition of diet
Land use patterns (feasibility of marginal/degraded lands)
Efficiency of food production: crop yields, livestock production
Forest productivity and sustainable harvest levels.
Competing demands for land: nature reserves, endangered/protected
ecosystems, recreation, amenity
Competing demands for wood and agriculture based bio-materials.
Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 5/17
Bioenergy, Development and Food Security as a System
Food
production
Income
Bioenergy
production
Agr. GDP
Food
Security
Economic
DevelopmentInvestment in
infrastructure, jobs, etc.
Access to
Energy
Access to
Food
Food
Availability
Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 6/17
Food
production
Income
Bioenergy
production
Agr. GDP
Energy
demand
Food
Security
Economic
Development
Food
demand
Investment in
infrastructure,
jobs, etc.
Finance
Land
Water
Labour
Access to
Energy
Access to Food
Energy
prices
Bioenergy
production
costs
Food
prices
Food
production
costs
Food Availability
Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 7/17
Food
production
Income
Energy
import/export
Bioenergy
production
Food
import/export
Agr. GDP/
trade
balance
Energy
demand
Food
Security
Economic
Development
Food
demand
Investment in
infrastructure,
jobs, etc.
Finance
Land
Water
Labour
Access to
Energy
Access to
Food
Health:
HIV, ...
CER
prices
Energy
pricesBioenergy
productio
n costs
Food
prices
Food
production
costs
Other energy
production costs
Energy Market
Models (IEA)
Agriculture Market Models,
PEM (FAO, OECD)
Global Land
Use Models
(IMAGE;
IIASA;
Alcamo et al.;
Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 8/17
Different Implementation Modes
BIOENERGY INDUSTRY: industrial scale bioenergy plant; procures feedstock and produces an energy commodity (such as biofuels or electricity).
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS: existing agro-processing facility or other biomass intensive industry such as a saw or paper mill invests in energy production from residues, either for its own consumption or for export, as an ancillary business activity.
COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE: a village or cluster of villages owns and manages energy facilities with or without contracting to private operators
RESCOs: independent private Rural Energy Service Companies act as entrepreneurs providing energy services (rather than equipment) at a profit to villages, households or enterprises.
RETAIL APPLIANCES: several small entrepreneurs are engaged in manufacturing and marketing a bioenergy technology (for example, cook stoves, biogas digesters, biofuels), which is ultimately widely distributed through standard retail channels.
Source: ESMAP 2005
Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 9/17
Competition
Resource Alternative Use
Animal dung Soil conditioner and fertilizer
Bagasse, sugar cane tops and leaves,
molasses
Animal feed, paper and board industries,
road cover
Cereal straw Animal feed, soil conditioner, paper &
board industries, roof thatching
Maize stalks Cattle feed, soil conditioner
Rice husk Cement and brick industries
Wood chips, bark, sawdust Construction material
Wood logs, branches
Construction material, paper industry,
handcraft
Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 10/17
Food
production
Income
Energy
import/export
Bioenergy
production
Food
import/export
Agr. GDP/
trade balance
Energy
demand
Food
Security
Economic
Development
Food
demand
Investment
in
infrastructure
, jobs, etc.
Finance
Land
Water
Labour
Access to
Energy
Access to
Food
Health:
HIV, ...
CER
prices Energy
pricesBioenergy
production
costs
Food
prices
Food
production
costs
Other energy
production costs
Enhanced Energy
Market Models (IEA)
Bottom-up Assessment of
the Bioenergy and Food
Security Nexus
Combined Global Land Use and
Agricultural Market Models
(IMAGE, IIASA; and FAO,
OECD)
Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 11/17
Conclusions
Food security and bioenergy systems are characterized by very complex interactions between the macro and micro level
Macro-models (Partial Equilibrium Models (Agriculture), Energy Models, Global Land Use Models, etc.) can be useful in determining the overall boundary conditions and some input variables for the evaluation of food security and bioenergy
A careful, local/national analysis is required to qualify the different determinants of bioenergy development and its implications for food security
Ingmar Juergens, Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division , FAO
Bioenergy and Food Security 12/17
Focus Questions for the next 2.5 days
1. Who are the recipients and beneficiaries of the knowledge we are trying
to generate and what exactly are their demands and motivation
regarding the understanding of bioenergy potentials?
2. What are the key issues, factors and determinants of bioenergy
potentials (in the context of food security)?
3. What is required for their analysis?
a) Approaches and schools of thought
b) Tools/Models (requirements/availability/gaps, sources/owners)
c) Data/Knowledge (requirements/availability/gaps, sources/owners)
4. How can we organize the way forward (who/what/when/how much)?
